Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1

Tyler Durden's picture

Today we got our first Hindenburg Omen confirmation. The number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69 (per the traditional WSJ source). Granted this particular criteria set was a little weak as the 69 is precisely on the borderline for confirmation (the 2.2%), and the new highs number was not more than double the new lows (although it was close). Less gating were the McClellan oscillator which was negative at -83.6, and the 10 week MVA, which rose, which were the two remaining conditions. The first omen was spotted on August 12 - a week later the H.O has been confirmed. The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective, not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy (like every other technical indicator).


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Roy Bush's picture

Oh the humanity!!!!

kinetik's picture

Ooooh, me likey.  Hadn't heard this band before, good stuff!

kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

nice sacrificial bitch offering visuals ;-)

Real Estate Geek's picture

They're kind of like the evil spawn of King Crimson and Black Sabbath.

Me gusta! 


Reductio ad Absurdum's picture

They seem to be stealing the melody from KC's "21st Century Schizoid Man" but whereas KC prided itself on technical precision these guys can barely play. So typical of the younger generation: they want to think of themselves as being as good as their predecessors but don't want to put in the effort it takes to get to that level.

Unscarred's picture

...these guys can barely play. So typical of the younger generation: they want to think of themselves as being as good as their predecessors but don't want to put in the effort it takes to get to that level.

Dude, bro...  this is British Doom Metal.  Loosen up the tie, untuck your shirt, maybe think about messing up your 'Mad Men' haircut and just enjoy the vibe.  These cats are playing at about 60 beats per minute and borrowing production methods from early black metal recordings.  Believe it or not, the sun will in fact come up tomorrow, I promise.

As for barely being able to play, how are they any different from the likes of The MelvinsEyehategod, and especially Neurosis- ALL who have heavily influenced music (rock/metal) over the past 20+ years!?  You don't need to play in a dual rhythm of 4/4 and 23/16 (eventually meeting up on the 64th beat) like Messhuggah or show off your ridiculous tech death chops to be considered "good".  Hell, it was Jimmy Page himself who made it cool to play sloppy (2:25) way back in 1969.

Granted, Black Flag and the entire NOLA scene came well after KC (as did everyone else besides Black Sabbath), but why does that make it inferior?



Freebird's picture

No one said it? Hindenberg Bitchez!

old_turk's picture

Thank you, I was about to ask ... the action had the looks of a confirmation day.


Risk Off Sector rotation, bitchez!!

Sam Malone's picture

...and Lakehurst, NJ becomes relevant again for but a brief window of time.

Assetman's picture

... which, ironically, is the location of many colocated servers that help provide "liquidity" for the major exchanges.

Coincidence? ;)

cougar_w's picture

Causality runs backwards.

Once you get that part down then everything starts to make sense again.

faustian bargain's picture

Talking Heads

Stop Making Sense

"Things fall apart -- it's scientific."

Pez's picture

To paraphrase Ty Webb in Caddy Shack: "Just be the market, be the market, be the market. You're not being the market ZH!"

Ned Zeppelin's picture

Or another answer: the particles only appear to be at a distance from each other. In fact, they are not, or at least an aspect of them exists outside space-time.  The Matrix is thereby revealed as construct only.

cougar_w's picture

Have any more of those red pills? thx.

Ripped Chunk's picture

NJ has a new blimp in the governor's mansion.


Mongo's picture

All your omens are belong to us

mynhair's picture

McClellan....wasn't he a terrible Union general?

william the bastard's picture

Hindenburg? Didn't he abdicate his presidential power to Hitler?

JLee2027's picture

McClellan....wasn't he a terrible Union general?

No. He was quite astute at preparing men and planning for battle, just not quite willing to take men into battle. 

Treeplanter's picture

He was good at training, supply and bullshitting.  But he hated to put his boys in danger, so Bobby Lee abused him badly, even when outnumbered 5 to 3.  Lincoln had better generals and colonels, but the army balked at going way down the chains of command to get the good ones.  The South had more promotions on merit because they didn't have a surplus of general officers.

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

The South had less options, losing would quickly end everything so politics could not get in the way for it to survive another day. One other thing of note is the war had significant support from its citizens in the South, the North less so.

Calls and Putz's picture

Ironically, the full name of the gentleman who formulated the McClellan Oscillator is Sherman McClellan.

New_Meat's picture

And Lincoln, who believed in the chain of command, but frustrated, asked:

"If General McClellan isn't going to use his army, I'd like to borrow it for a time."


- Ned

Sudden Debt's picture

To be honest Tyler, most CEO's I know all say the same.

The sales figure of september will tell us how we'll do for the rest of the year. On average, most of them are reporting to have a sales number for july that's above prediction, August will be weak and the number there are all around -1% and +0,5% on average. Most of them expect to end in the red for August.

But september need to go above +7% to save the year. It needs to be one of the best months of the year. But you can see a difference.

The macro businesses think they'll be able to make it.

The micro businesses don't.

And that's what I take in mind with buying stocks.

Mitchman's picture

Here's a start from Bloomberg:

Staples Profit Forecast Trails Analysts' Estimates

seek's picture

This is spot on.


I do analysis (market, not financial) for a tech industry segment -- because of

how the market behaved in Q2, Q3 needs to turn in a near-record performance; anything

less is indicative of a contraction. Mid quarter updates from the OEMs I work will are indicating

weak growth at best -- which means a setup for a really bad Q4 and a weak or even loss year.


The outlook is bad and getting worse.

SheepDog-One's picture

'Sub-prime is contained'...

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Could it be that reality is making its way into the walls of Wall Street? 

Isn't it time for another round of wake up calls to those investors that tell me, "Well my portfolio is well diversified from risky to less risky, so I should be in good shape."

Those fuckers crack me up.  401k/IRAs will soon make social security look attractive. 

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Granted this particular criteria set was a little weak as the 69 is precisely on the borderline for confirmation (the 2.2%), and the new highs number was not more than double the new lows (although it was close).

And any number of potential Hindenburg Omens have been discarded for being a tiny bit out on the other side of the line. That's why you refine your parameters as you learn. But you don't appoligize because it was close to a non-confirmation.

Let's see, last time we had one and then the confirmation shortly afterward was late 2008 just before..........Opps, I just messed my shorts. :>)

Assetman's picture

You're a literal confligration of bodily fluids today, CD. :)

count_de_monee's picture

Hindenburg, eh???

Anyone got a light?

Gubbmint Cheese's picture

So does that mean we are at the point of the Hindenburg cycle where Herbert Morrison just said, "The back motors of the ship are just holding it just, just enough to keep it from..." ?


cougar_w's picture


I wonder. Who was the crewman on the airship who knew it first? That she was going down? What did he think when he knew?

Maybe he thought "it's going down and there is no escape."

Because I feel like that, some days. Like it's just going down now and there is no escaping it.

I heard once that the most common thing recorded at the end of blackbox inflight recordings, the ones that record cockpit conversations, is "oh shit."

Oh shit. Just like that.

Oh. Shit.

Marley's picture

How about,

"Oops", or "Is this a bad time to ask for a raise?"

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

A client of mine works at the FAA and did work for the NTSB and has told me some interesting anecdotes. What he's said is that often, but by no means always, there is some swearing during the last few minutes. What was very heart rending to hear from him was that when there is time for the flight crew to actually be aware of their final fate, sometimes the flight crew will cry out words of love and affection directly to their family because they are very conscious of the fact that their words are being recorded. This along with other reasons is why they rarely release the actual audio to the public. Or if they do, it is edited. Even the public transcript is edited.


Tense INDIAN's picture

it occured on 12th , then again on Friday the 13th, it nearly occured on wednesday 11th , and it appears again today......so is this right ??......it has appeared almost 4 times in this month

FEDbuster's picture

Add to the HO, the Death Cross in the S&P 500 which happened a couple of months ago.  With the 50 dma below the 200 dma and holding steady.  Plus, the Consumer Metrics Institutes's charts showing a drop back into the abyss.  It's shaping up to be an interesting Fall in the market. 

Adam Selene's picture

Fall.  Indeed.

Epic. Fall.