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Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1

Tyler Durden's picture


Today we got our first Hindenburg Omen confirmation. The number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69 (per the traditional WSJ source). Granted this particular criteria set was a little weak as the 69 is precisely on the borderline for confirmation (the 2.2%), and the new highs number was not more than double the new lows (although it was close). Less gating were the McClellan oscillator which was negative at -83.6, and the 10 week MVA, which rose, which were the two remaining conditions. The first omen was spotted on August 12 - a week later the H.O has been confirmed. The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective, not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy (like every other technical indicator).



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Thu, 08/19/2010 - 16:40 | 531311 Roy Bush
Roy Bush's picture

Oh the humanity!!!!

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:21 | 531416 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

There are 2 solutions to the equation:

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 19:31 | 531685 kinetik
kinetik's picture

Ooooh, me likey.  Hadn't heard this band before, good stuff!

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 21:07 | 531835 kathy.chamberli...'s picture

nice sacrificial bitch offering visuals ;-)

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 23:19 | 532083 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

They're kind of like the evil spawn of King Crimson and Black Sabbath.

Me gusta! 


Fri, 08/20/2010 - 03:57 | 532289 Reductio ad Absurdum
Reductio ad Absurdum's picture

They seem to be stealing the melody from KC's "21st Century Schizoid Man" but whereas KC prided itself on technical precision these guys can barely play. So typical of the younger generation: they want to think of themselves as being as good as their predecessors but don't want to put in the effort it takes to get to that level.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 22:53 | 539312 Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

...these guys can barely play. So typical of the younger generation: they want to think of themselves as being as good as their predecessors but don't want to put in the effort it takes to get to that level.

Dude, bro...  this is British Doom Metal.  Loosen up the tie, untuck your shirt, maybe think about messing up your 'Mad Men' haircut and just enjoy the vibe.  These cats are playing at about 60 beats per minute and borrowing production methods from early black metal recordings.  Believe it or not, the sun will in fact come up tomorrow, I promise.

As for barely being able to play, how are they any different from the likes of The MelvinsEyehategod, and especially Neurosis- ALL who have heavily influenced music (rock/metal) over the past 20+ years!?  You don't need to play in a dual rhythm of 4/4 and 23/16 (eventually meeting up on the 64th beat) like Messhuggah or show off your ridiculous tech death chops to be considered "good".  Hell, it was Jimmy Page himself who made it cool to play sloppy (2:25) way back in 1969.

Granted, Black Flag and the entire NOLA scene came well after KC (as did everyone else besides Black Sabbath), but why does that make it inferior?



Thu, 08/19/2010 - 19:17 | 531668 Freebird
Freebird's picture

No one said it? Hindenberg Bitchez!

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 16:42 | 531320 old_turk
old_turk's picture

Thank you, I was about to ask ... the action had the looks of a confirmation day.


Risk Off Sector rotation, bitchez!!

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 16:42 | 531322 Sam Malone
Sam Malone's picture

...and Lakehurst, NJ becomes relevant again for but a brief window of time.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 16:50 | 531345 Assetman
Assetman's picture

... which, ironically, is the location of many colocated servers that help provide "liquidity" for the major exchanges.

Coincidence? ;)

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:15 | 531401 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Causality runs backwards.

Once you get that part down then everything starts to make sense again.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:20 | 531413 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Talking Heads

Stop Making Sense

"Things fall apart -- it's scientific."

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 21:11 | 531838 Pez
Pez's picture

To paraphrase Ty Webb in Caddy Shack: "Just be the market, be the market, be the market. You're not being the market ZH!"

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:13 | 531548 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Or another answer: the particles only appear to be at a distance from each other. In fact, they are not, or at least an aspect of them exists outside space-time.  The Matrix is thereby revealed as construct only.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:32 | 531579 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Have any more of those red pills? thx.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:28 | 531441 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

NJ has a new blimp in the governor's mansion.


Thu, 08/19/2010 - 16:43 | 531326 Mongo
Mongo's picture

All your omens are belong to us

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 16:44 | 531327 mynhair
mynhair's picture

McClellan....wasn't he a terrible Union general?

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 16:46 | 531335 winks
winks's picture

By George, he was!

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:25 | 531430 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

Hindenburg? Didn't he abdicate his presidential power to Hitler?

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:20 | 531415 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

McClellan....wasn't he a terrible Union general?

No. He was quite astute at preparing men and planning for battle, just not quite willing to take men into battle. 

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:40 | 531467 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

He was good at training, supply and bullshitting.  But he hated to put his boys in danger, so Bobby Lee abused him badly, even when outnumbered 5 to 3.  Lincoln had better generals and colonels, but the army balked at going way down the chains of command to get the good ones.  The South had more promotions on merit because they didn't have a surplus of general officers.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:55 | 531500 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

The South had less options, losing would quickly end everything so politics could not get in the way for it to survive another day. One other thing of note is the war had significant support from its citizens in the South, the North less so.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:10 | 531543 Calls and Putz
Calls and Putz's picture

Ironically, the full name of the gentleman who formulated the McClellan Oscillator is Sherman McClellan.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:35 | 531587 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

And Lincoln, who believed in the chain of command, but frustrated, asked:

"If General McClellan isn't going to use his army, I'd like to borrow it for a time."

- Ned

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 16:44 | 531329 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

To be honest Tyler, most CEO's I know all say the same.

The sales figure of september will tell us how we'll do for the rest of the year. On average, most of them are reporting to have a sales number for july that's above prediction, August will be weak and the number there are all around -1% and +0,5% on average. Most of them expect to end in the red for August.

But september need to go above +7% to save the year. It needs to be one of the best months of the year. But you can see a difference.

The macro businesses think they'll be able to make it.

The micro businesses don't.

And that's what I take in mind with buying stocks.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 16:58 | 531361 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

Here's a start from Bloomberg:

Staples Profit Forecast Trails Analysts' Estimates

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:45 | 531482 seek
seek's picture

This is spot on.


I do analysis (market, not financial) for a tech industry segment -- because of

how the market behaved in Q2, Q3 needs to turn in a near-record performance; anything

less is indicative of a contraction. Mid quarter updates from the OEMs I work will are indicating

weak growth at best -- which means a setup for a really bad Q4 and a weak or even loss year.


The outlook is bad and getting worse.

Fri, 08/20/2010 - 08:50 | 532445 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Sub-prime is contained'...

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 16:46 | 531334 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Could it be that reality is making its way into the walls of Wall Street? 

Isn't it time for another round of wake up calls to those investors that tell me, "Well my portfolio is well diversified from risky to less risky, so I should be in good shape."

Those fuckers crack me up.  401k/IRAs will soon make social security look attractive. 

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 16:48 | 531336 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Granted this particular criteria set was a little weak as the 69 is precisely on the borderline for confirmation (the 2.2%), and the new highs number was not more than double the new lows (although it was close).

And any number of potential Hindenburg Omens have been discarded for being a tiny bit out on the other side of the line. That's why you refine your parameters as you learn. But you don't appoligize because it was close to a non-confirmation.

Let's see, last time we had one and then the confirmation shortly afterward was late 2008 just before..........Opps, I just messed my shorts. :>)

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 16:54 | 531350 Assetman
Assetman's picture

You're a literal confligration of bodily fluids today, CD. :)

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 16:55 | 531356 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture


I feel like a 1 year old toddling around in Pampers. I guess that's what old age feels like. :>)

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:13 | 531393 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Boxers or briefs?

It depends...

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:51 | 531495 The Rock
The Rock's picture

Yes, Depends (XL).

Fri, 08/20/2010 - 12:29 | 533060 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture


Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:30 | 531452 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Just will till the Alzheimer kicks in :)

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 21:10 | 531839 kathy.chamberli...'s picture

got your mind, you'll be fine.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:54 | 531498 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

And is that an improvement?

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 16:59 | 531363 count_de_monee
count_de_monee's picture

Hindenburg, eh???

Anyone got a light?

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:10 | 531386 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

So does that mean we are at the point of the Hindenburg cycle where Herbert Morrison just said, "The back motors of the ship are just holding it just, just enough to keep it from..." ?


Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:39 | 531597 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture


I wonder. Who was the crewman on the airship who knew it first? That she was going down? What did he think when he knew?

Maybe he thought "it's going down and there is no escape."

Because I feel like that, some days. Like it's just going down now and there is no escaping it.

I heard once that the most common thing recorded at the end of blackbox inflight recordings, the ones that record cockpit conversations, is "oh shit."

Oh shit. Just like that.

Oh. Shit.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 22:01 | 531941 Marley
Marley's picture

How about,

"Oops", or "Is this a bad time to ask for a raise?"

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 22:12 | 531961 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

A client of mine works at the FAA and did work for the NTSB and has told me some interesting anecdotes. What he's said is that often, but by no means always, there is some swearing during the last few minutes. What was very heart rending to hear from him was that when there is time for the flight crew to actually be aware of their final fate, sometimes the flight crew will cry out words of love and affection directly to their family because they are very conscious of the fact that their words are being recorded. This along with other reasons is why they rarely release the actual audio to the public. Or if they do, it is edited. Even the public transcript is edited.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:12 | 531390 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

it occured on 12th , then again on Friday the 13th, it nearly occured on wednesday 11th , and it appears again is this right ?? has appeared almost 4 times in this month

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:24 | 531427 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Add to the HO, the Death Cross in the S&P 500 which happened a couple of months ago.  With the 50 dma below the 200 dma and holding steady.  Plus, the Consumer Metrics Institutes's charts showing a drop back into the abyss.  It's shaping up to be an interesting Fall in the market. 

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:54 | 531504 Adam Selene
Adam Selene's picture

Fall.  Indeed.

Epic. Fall.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:06 | 531534 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

can u confirm this info...4 times nearly this month ...right???

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 19:46 | 531700 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This is only the second time. The Hindenburg Omen has changed and been refined over the years to remove as many false positives as possible. The first one you mention, the 12th, was a near miss IF you use the WSJ data, which is what the "pros" use. If you use Yahoo data, my understanding is that it was a hit. But the standard for the Omen is the WSJ data. Last Friday was a hit and the first one. There was another near miss this week. And then it hit again today. So no three or four, just two.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 20:34 | 531774 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

McHugh owns the H-O so check it all out through him.  He got into some nasty copyright and slander stuff with an analyst who took his marketing pronouncements as market predictions, a  real stretch, but then he had to defend himself. I haven't seen his most recent thinking but McHugh is your man on Hindenberg Omens. He is a square shooter, so if you find something, please post it here for our information.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:11 | 531391 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Omens. Sounds so ... ominous.

Why couldn't they have called it the Hindenburg Smiley? Doesn't that make you feel so much better about the entire thing?

I should be in branding and marketing.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:16 | 531406 Gubbmint Cheese
Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:39 | 531598 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

"Why couldn't they have called it the Hindenburg Smiley?"

'cuz, then you'd have Trav's "smiley" putting his "digit" into your face.


- Ned

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 23:04 | 532057 David449420
David449420's picture

I think some Traders are frowning at you.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:14 | 531396 web bot
web bot's picture

#uck, #uck, #uck

When this thing blows, it's going to be a mess.

If any of you who are of the lunatic fringe are wondering if there are any other indicators, google "webbot" and see what the latest reports are saying for August 25th - 28th. It is predicting a meltdown.


Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:47 | 531615 flacon
flacon's picture

Do you have a link?

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 19:50 | 531712 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It has been getting interesting. The good readers of the web bot tea leaves are pay sites.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 20:23 | 531757 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

CogDis...  Nice find, did you pick up what the reference to November 8th is?  I didn't, other than it's the same countdown to the end of my 30s..  :(

And returning to duration, yes, i do note that we are at 95 days and counting down. Curious that this period, including the time flow of our personal contacts, so resembles what we experienced in 2001.......even down to our discussions of the potentials of that tipping point, and only 95 days before it popped off in everyone's face.

Again, sorry i was not paying attention. 95 days and counting down.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 23:16 | 532079 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

Never mind...  I got it...

Future predictions

  • November 8-11th, 2010 - The web bot warns of a big tipping point, possibly World War III.
  • Fri, 08/20/2010 - 01:14 | 532184 RmcAZ
    RmcAZ's picture

    Does it predict anything happy?

    Oh wait, that's CNBC.

    Fri, 08/20/2010 - 00:31 | 532150 Things that go bump
    Things that go bump's picture 

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:14 | 531400 jkruffin
    jkruffin's picture

    Boy oh boy, doesn't it look like fall 2008 all over again in the making, yet worse?  Sure wouldn't want to be caught in that fiasco.  Look out below!

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:22 | 531417 Hissarlik40s
    Hissarlik40s's picture

    Please excuse the link to a article....but it looks like from this that the correct highs/lows number is not 2.2% but rather 2.5%. Not that it likely matters, unless it does.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:21 | 531418 mynhair
    mynhair's picture

    Where's the POMO?  Ya think that isn't being held in reserve to extend the Hindy?

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:23 | 531419 Bruno the Bear
    Bruno the Bear's picture

    Oh, the humanity! And all the passengers screaming around here. I told you; it—I can't even talk to people, their friends are out there! Ah! It's... it... it's a... ah! I... I can't talk, ladies and gentlemen. Honest: it's just laying there, mass of smoking wreckage

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:28 | 531439 JLee2027
    JLee2027's picture

    Not nice

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:23 | 531420 metastar
    metastar's picture

    Achtung! Das Hidenburg Omen ist nicht gut!

    Haben Sie genug Geld?

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:27 | 531434 mynhair
    mynhair's picture

    Iridium, bitchez!

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:33 | 531459 william the bastard
    william the bastard's picture

    Bovina Sancta!

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 20:39 | 531781 MrSteve
    MrSteve's picture

    I haven't seen mr zigzag avatar since the 1970s

    Fri, 08/20/2010 - 12:48 | 533103 MayIMommaDogFac...
    MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

    Is that because you bought a bong?

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:25 | 531422 JLee2027
    JLee2027's picture

    And Comex is low on physical Gold and Silver while the technicals are pointing to an eruption northwards.

    Interesting bit of dual symmetry there. One could even say that God does provide signs of what is about to happen for those that are observant.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:32 | 531578 nmewn
    nmewn's picture

    I believe someone in the COMEX is taking off his shorts...LOL.

    Who could it be now...

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 21:54 | 531914 kathy.chamberli...'s picture

    nice `81 attire.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:24 | 531426 bigdad06
    bigdad06's picture

    Things are getting interesting! Can't wait until September and October!

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:26 | 531429 Johnny Yuma
    Johnny Yuma's picture

    It's funny, caught a glimpse of Cramer dismissing the Omen as a joke... Market crashes the next day. Does no one do any technical analysis anymore?... The ES was simply doing a half way back retracement and is now on to it's continual decline. Fibonacci from the recent high of 8/5 to the low of 8/16 gives us a somewhat micro 50% retracement... We should get back to 1050's real soon. 

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:44 | 531606 New_Meat
    New_Meat's picture

    "Does no one do any technical analysis anymore?..."

    function fear (...);

    function greed (...);

    PhDs with a Clearasil need have it all covered.

    - Ned

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:30 | 531445 Ras Bongo
    Ras Bongo's picture


    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:31 | 531457 cashcow
    cashcow's picture

    No need to worry, everyone is fantasically diversified - oh wait a minute no the HFT algos turned the whole market into one southward heading ETF devoid of reality. Nevermind.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 20:43 | 531792 MrSteve
    MrSteve's picture

    See PRPFX for classic diversification and a very enviable long term / short term annual return on decades-long investment return. Really outstanding.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 21:57 | 531931 kathy.chamberli...'s picture

    nice ass white girl.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:40 | 531469 buzlightening
    buzlightening's picture

    burnokio bendover rose comments on the Hindenburg omen! "About that light you sold me?"

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:39 | 531470 50 Cents
    50 Cents's picture

    Did anyone bother to look at the list of new highs?  A majority of them are prefs, trusts, & ETFs.  Few actual stocks make the list...

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:39 | 531593 Bear
    Bear's picture

    Thanks again.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:38 | 531594 Bear
    Bear's picture

    Thanks for that research. 

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:41 | 531473 plocequ1
    plocequ1's picture

    Hindenburg Omen... Enter Ctrl + Alt xxxo10100x1211 in the machine. No more Hindenburg Omen.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:37 | 531591 Bear
    Bear's picture

    Hey ... How did you know my password?

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:42 | 531476 Treeplanter
    Treeplanter's picture

    It may finally be time to throw the I Ching.  But do I focus on the general collapse or what will happen with gold?  Consulting the oracle can be very vexing.  

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:55 | 531505 Headbanger
    Headbanger's picture

    Yea but when do we get the Titanic Omen!?

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:00 | 531519 JLee2027
    JLee2027's picture

    The iceberg might have already hit. This is where the band is playing before the mass panic starts.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 17:57 | 531510 Bill Lumbergh
    Bill Lumbergh's picture

    There are so many negative technicals in alignment now...poor equity seasonality, broadening tops, completed retracements from last year lows, Cardinal Climax, and now Hindenburg Omen confirmation...batten down the hatches when the Kontratieff Winter really starts to take hold:

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:02 | 531521 Bear
    Bear's picture

    I don't know ... every Head and Shoulders formation has been followed by a violent upward pulse. The more we talk about these bearish tech formations the more they get gunned. Don't get me wrong I a permabear but it seems that you have to short every thing that looks like an upside breakout and buy every technical 'bearish' appearance.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:22 | 531565 The Rock
    The Rock's picture

    My thoughts exactly, per my comment further down...

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:46 | 531612 Blano
    Blano's picture

    Not trying to sound like a Leo either, but that has been my experience with charts this year.  Continued and repeated false breakouts and breakdowns.

    I was going to consider it just another false breakdown signal 'til I saw Cramer trashed it.  That might just make it inevitable.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 19:08 | 531654 The Rock
    The Rock's picture

    Then again, everyone sees him as a contrarian indicator, so...

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 22:18 | 531978 flacon
    flacon's picture

    Knowing that he's a contrairian indicator makes him... and knowing that also makes him... 

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:01 | 531522 scratch_and_sniff
    scratch_and_sniff's picture


    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:18 | 531559 Jack H Barnes
    Jack H Barnes's picture

    Hear Hear... well said...

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:51 | 531627 New_Meat
    New_Meat's picture


    I've often wondered how the Revolution and Civil wars were not conducted without the F-Bomb.

    But the defensive positions were dug (American's greatest fear was to lose a leg) and range stakes placed at the planned engagement distances.  Brits get past the stake, order to shoot.  So I'd bet that this was part of the total plan.

    Putnam, Stark, Prescott or Gridley?: my bet-All got the word out.  Untrained militia, therefore constant repetition among the force.

    and Grant: "A soldier who won't ..."

    but he was far from the first.

    - Ned

    Fri, 08/20/2010 - 09:19 | 532512 old_turk
    old_turk's picture

    The f-bomb per se was not used as the word of the day was Swive. 


    As in, 'swive you and your lady, too, ya bloody grifter!'

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 22:20 | 531980 flacon
    flacon's picture

    What if the whites of it's eyes are actually red?

    Fri, 08/20/2010 - 06:50 | 532327 zhandax
    zhandax's picture

    Considering the original reference was to the British, I would guess that they were more interested in how it sounded to posterity than accuracy.  Then again, read the account of the maiden voyage of the USS Constitution.  Not like we were in any position to cast stones on that count.....

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:03 | 531524 redpill
    redpill's picture

    They name hurricanes, so I think it would be appropriate to name the Hindenburg Omens after the song names on Led Zeppelin 1, which had said airship on its album cover.  The names are ironically appropriate.

    Good Times Bad Times

    Babe I'm Gonna Leave You

    You Shook Me

    Dazed And Confused

    Your Time Is Gonna Come

    Black Mountain Side

    Communication Breakdown

    I Can't Quit You Baby

    How Many More Times


    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 19:12 | 531662 cougar_w
    cougar_w's picture

    Hey I heard something freaky. You play back the last 2 years of financial news with the sound off while you play that album, and everything syncs up perfectly.

    No not really I made that up. Great album tho. 

    Sun, 08/22/2010 - 17:04 | 536412 _Biggs_
    _Biggs_'s picture

    Do you have to be on mushrooms?

    Sun, 08/22/2010 - 18:58 | 536526 kathy.chamberli...'s picture

    uncle SAM was the mushroom man. honest, he wrote several books on identification, location, non/poisonous, psychedelic (no just kidding, he was a M.D.) Sam Mitchel. google it.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 22:07 | 531956 kathy.chamberli...
    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:06 | 531533 jkruffin
    jkruffin's picture

    Confirmed:  In case you missed it above:  No doubts!

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:09 | 531541 sunny
    sunny's picture

    I've been following the work of Laura at - - primarily to learn more about this technical approach.  She has been suggesting a major move down for some time, no surprise, but in the last couple of days, oh boy.....

    Resistance is Futile!


    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:54 | 531630 New_Meat
    New_Meat's picture

    when does support vanish?

    Fri, 08/20/2010 - 06:53 | 532328 zhandax
    zhandax's picture

    When the black swan takes a shit...

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:13 | 531547 scratch_and_sniff
    scratch_and_sniff's picture

    Hey what about people bidding the S&P at 666 ? any spook stories about that?

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:20 | 531560 The Rock
    The Rock's picture

    Why do I get the feeling that they are trying desperately to bring in new shorts before they goose this bitch higher?  I guess it's hard attracting fresh blood these days.  The usual negative suspects (Faber, Fleckenstein, whatever) just wasn't enough this time and the "Death Cross" wasn't enough either, so the MSM are hyping the "HO" and bringing out "von Greyerz", etc...

    I hope I'm wrong, since I am a long term short, but I'm getting tired of these head-fakes that are only dragging out the inevitable.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:29 | 531575 faustian bargain
    faustian bargain's picture

    I'm not saying that's not possible, but it does seem like the H.O. is not an easy thing to manipulate, at least according to wikipedia. Maybe some actual TA guys can confirm this.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:52 | 531604 The Rock
    The Rock's picture

    Well, I believe TD mentioned that it is 70% accurate, but it seems like technicals don't matter when you have Bennie and the Jets throwing money at the system.  What we need is a Black Bull/Swan event like what happened today in Spain that scared the shit out of everyone in the stands. Btw, it's not impossible that Wikipedia could be manipulated by the PTB as well.


    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 20:46 | 531797 minus dog
    minus dog's picture

    "TV footage shows spectators trying to restrain the animal - one fan grabs its tail - as it careers through the stands."

    As a sport, I think bullfighting is asinine - but someone needs to buy Mr. Tail Grabber a beer.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 22:36 | 532021 Jerome Lester H...
    Jerome Lester Horwitz's picture

    Make it a Schlitz Malt Liquor!

    Fri, 08/20/2010 - 02:12 | 532223 The Rock
    The Rock's picture


    Fri, 08/20/2010 - 09:25 | 532529 old_turk
    old_turk's picture

    The Omen is looking at sector rotation.  The number of highs and lows are the triggers and the other criteria refine it (throwing out false positives).


    Although when I smarted off about it above, I got junked ... that's what is going on.


    Sector rotation = the herd heading for 'safety'.  Well, usually, generally, sorta in a way ... there are exceptions.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:32 | 531580 sunny
    sunny's picture

    "I hope I'm wrong, since I am a long term short, but I'm getting tired of these head-fakes that are only dragging out the inevitable."

    noshitsherlock... me too.  Let's get on with it.




    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:48 | 531616 doomandbloom
    doomandbloom's picture

    i was getting afraid that the markets would fall because of the mega frauds, greed of bankers, humongous deficits..

    looks like its just because of this Omen...nothing to see here..i will move myself along..

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:49 | 531617 Tripps
    Tripps's picture

    all these negative bashers and omens...i will hold you all responsible if market doesn't crash soon

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 18:53 | 531631 TraderTimm
    TraderTimm's picture

    I use the mental exercise of "Most frustrating thing the market could do is...". Which in this case, is rally hard into next week - and then finally give up the ghost.

    It is getting frothy out there.


    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 19:15 | 531666 boomer
    boomer's picture

    The Fed will never let this market go down.  All you techies and doomsayers are just pissing in the wind.  Go long, helium is obsolete.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 23:46 | 532103 jeff montanye
    jeff montanye's picture

    why is helium obsolete?  i never get tired of the little chirpy voices.  (did you mean hydrogen?)

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 19:56 | 531720 CitizenPete
    CitizenPete's picture

    Not to worry Social Security will take care of EVERYONE:



    The just need to decide how to "fix it".   LMFAO  

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 21:03 | 531826 Bear
    Bear's picture

    Thank you ... I feel much better now.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 20:16 | 531750 Strom
    Strom's picture

    Here you go: 

    * Wall Street (1929 film), directed by Roy William Neill (released Dec. 1, 1929) Black Tuesday was October 29, 1929. About 33 days between crash and movie release.

    * Wall Street (1987 film), directed by Oliver Stone (released Dec. 11, 1987) Black Monday was October 19, 1987. About 53 days between crash and movie release.

    * Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, a 2010 film sequel to the above, directed by Oliver Stone (to be released Sept. 24, 2010). The average is 43 days of the 1929 and 1987 movie, the minimum is 33 days and maximum is 53 days. Forty three (43) days from September 24 would have been August 12, 53 days would have been August 2, and 33 days would land on August 22.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 21:11 | 531844 Bear
    Bear's picture

    I think they call this the von Düsseldorf Indicator, named after a famous horse race in Germany.

    Fri, 08/20/2010 - 17:44 | 532033 kathy.chamberli...'s picture

     :-*  :-*

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 20:28 | 531764 boomer
    boomer's picture

    Try This!!  Markets ALWAYS come crashing down out of good times.  When was the  last time a market crashed in bad times?  Now, does anybody want to call this time we are living in good?  Go long!

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 22:37 | 532023 flacon
    flacon's picture

    I'm so high on heroine I cannnet hareedly teype. theese are thes goood tieyimes. Party on Duede!

    Fri, 08/20/2010 - 00:46 | 532161 AVP
    AVP's picture
    Good Times.


    Any time you meet a payment. - Good Times.
    Any time you need a friend. - Good Times.
    Any time you’re out from under.
    Not getting hassled, not getting hustled.
    Keepin’ your head above water,
    Making a wave when you can.

    Temporary lay offs. - Good Times.
    Easy credit rip offs. - Good Times.
    Scratchin’ and surviving. - Good Times.
    Hangin in a chow line - Good Times.
    Ain’t we lucky we got ‘em - Good Times.


    Just lookin' out of the window.
    Watchin' the asphalt grow.
    Thinkin' how it all looks hand-me-down.
    Good Times, yeah, yeah Good Times

    Keepin' your head above water
    Makin' a wave when you can

    Temporary lay offs. - Good Times.
    VOICE-OVER spoken by John Amos: Good Times was recorded in front of a live studio audience
    Easy credit rip offs. - Good Times.
    Ain't we lucky we got 'em - Good Times. Source(s):

    Fri, 08/20/2010 - 10:59 | 532827's picture


    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 20:41 | 531785 newstreet
    newstreet's picture

    Did any of you make any trades today?

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 22:39 | 532026 flacon
    flacon's picture

    I bought PME.TO and SLW.TO. 

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 20:43 | 531787 ThisIsBob
    ThisIsBob's picture

    To be foillowed by the Hidelberg Omen, wherein one shorts any index the monkey's dart lands on, and begins drinking copious amounts of good beer.

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 22:39 | 532027 flacon
    flacon's picture

    I'm drinking a gold beer right now. Gold = Good = God. 

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 21:21 | 531854 Mentaliusanything
    Mentaliusanything's picture

    Omens are everywhere it seems.

    This is an Apple omen -

    $35, its a Walmart price point walk out

    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 21:55 | 531916 deepsouthdoug
    deepsouthdoug's picture

    well, do you feel lucky investor punk?


    Thu, 08/19/2010 - 23:06 | 532060 BearishFeijoadaSushi
    BearishFeijoadaSushi's picture

    If one keeps pushing the market artificially higher, that's mark to myth and nothing else and I don't think any analysis is really valid.

    Fri, 08/20/2010 - 17:46 | 532075 kathy.chamberli...'s picture

    O K  U

    Fri, 08/20/2010 - 02:04 | 532216 Jasper M
    Jasper M's picture


    Oh, Hugh, the manatee!


    Fri, 08/20/2010 - 03:19 | 532253 zhaowei
    zhaowei's picture

    we Dunjue he is very ordinary, mundane like a bunch of dim light from afar, leaf blade of grass, a drop of morning dew. If you pandora beads wear a, you are no ordinary princess, for which we mourn, we lament. In fact, we do not lament for the ordinary, as ordinary?Is also a beauty! Ordinary is the wilderness, conceived with the rise, as long as you with pandora bracelets; ordinary clay, pregnant with gains, as long as you are willing to hard work; ordinary is fine stream, and carries deep, as long as pandorayou are willing to accumulate. Ordinary is a thrill to rest after the fighting, is a brilliant meditation after the pursuit.

    Fri, 08/20/2010 - 05:55 | 532316 doggings
    doggings's picture

    hello? some ban this spamming bitch ASAP. is there a ban and delete all posts button? youre going to need one, he'll be telling all his friends by now.

    Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!