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Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1
Today we got our first Hindenburg Omen confirmation. The number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69 (per the traditional WSJ source). Granted this particular criteria set was a little weak as the 69 is precisely on the borderline for confirmation (the 2.2%), and the new highs number was not more than double the new lows (although it was close). Less gating were the McClellan oscillator which was negative at -83.6, and the 10 week MVA, which rose, which were the two remaining conditions. The first omen was spotted on August 12 - a week later the H.O has been confirmed. The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective, not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy (like every other technical indicator).
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Oh the humanity!!!!
There are 2 solutions to the equation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDO3sq9kHmY&feature=related
Ooooh, me likey. Hadn't heard this band before, good stuff!
nice sacrificial bitch offering visuals ;-)
They're kind of like the evil spawn of King Crimson and Black Sabbath.
Me gusta!
They seem to be stealing the melody from KC's "21st Century Schizoid Man" but whereas KC prided itself on technical precision these guys can barely play. So typical of the younger generation: they want to think of themselves as being as good as their predecessors but don't want to put in the effort it takes to get to that level.
Dude, bro... this is British Doom Metal. Loosen up the tie, untuck your shirt, maybe think about messing up your 'Mad Men' haircut and just enjoy the vibe. These cats are playing at about 60 beats per minute and borrowing production methods from early black metal recordings. Believe it or not, the sun will in fact come up tomorrow, I promise.
As for barely being able to play, how are they any different from the likes of The Melvins, Eyehategod, and especially Neurosis- ALL who have heavily influenced music (rock/metal) over the past 20+ years!? You don't need to play in a dual rhythm of 4/4 and 23/16 (eventually meeting up on the 64th beat) like Messhuggah or show off your ridiculous tech death chops to be considered "good". Hell, it was Jimmy Page himself who made it cool to play sloppy (2:25) way back in 1969.
Granted, Black Flag and the entire NOLA scene came well after KC (as did everyone else besides Black Sabbath), but why does that make it inferior?
No one said it? Hindenberg Bitchez!
Thank you, I was about to ask ... the action had the looks of a confirmation day.
Risk Off Sector rotation, bitchez!!
...and Lakehurst, NJ becomes relevant again for but a brief window of time.
... which, ironically, is the location of many colocated servers that help provide "liquidity" for the major exchanges.
Coincidence? ;)
That's just too crazy. Sort of like "Spooky Action at a Distance".
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090304091231.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_entanglement
http://www.csmonitor.com/2001/1004/p15s1-stss.html
Causality runs backwards.
Once you get that part down then everything starts to make sense again.
Talking Heads
Stop Making Sense
"Things fall apart -- it's scientific."
To paraphrase Ty Webb in Caddy Shack: "Just be the market, be the market, be the market. You're not being the market ZH!"
Or another answer: the particles only appear to be at a distance from each other. In fact, they are not, or at least an aspect of them exists outside space-time. The Matrix is thereby revealed as construct only.
Have any more of those red pills? thx.
NJ has a new blimp in the governor's mansion.
All your omens are belong to us
McClellan....wasn't he a terrible Union general?
By George, he was!
Hindenburg? Didn't he abdicate his presidential power to Hitler?
McClellan....wasn't he a terrible Union general?
No. He was quite astute at preparing men and planning for battle, just not quite willing to take men into battle.
He was good at training, supply and bullshitting. But he hated to put his boys in danger, so Bobby Lee abused him badly, even when outnumbered 5 to 3. Lincoln had better generals and colonels, but the army balked at going way down the chains of command to get the good ones. The South had more promotions on merit because they didn't have a surplus of general officers.
The South had less options, losing would quickly end everything so politics could not get in the way for it to survive another day. One other thing of note is the war had significant support from its citizens in the South, the North less so.
Ironically, the full name of the gentleman who formulated the McClellan Oscillator is Sherman McClellan.
And Lincoln, who believed in the chain of command, but frustrated, asked:
http://www.angelfire.com/my/abrahamlincoln/Quotes.html
- Ned
To be honest Tyler, most CEO's I know all say the same.
The sales figure of september will tell us how we'll do for the rest of the year. On average, most of them are reporting to have a sales number for july that's above prediction, August will be weak and the number there are all around -1% and +0,5% on average. Most of them expect to end in the red for August.
But september need to go above +7% to save the year. It needs to be one of the best months of the year. But you can see a difference.
The macro businesses think they'll be able to make it.
The micro businesses don't.
And that's what I take in mind with buying stocks.
Here's a start from Bloomberg:
Staples Profit Forecast Trails Analysts' Estimates
This is spot on.
I do analysis (market, not financial) for a tech industry segment -- because of
how the market behaved in Q2, Q3 needs to turn in a near-record performance; anything
less is indicative of a contraction. Mid quarter updates from the OEMs I work will are indicating
weak growth at best -- which means a setup for a really bad Q4 and a weak or even loss year.
The outlook is bad and getting worse.
'Sub-prime is contained'...
Could it be that reality is making its way into the walls of Wall Street?
Isn't it time for another round of wake up calls to those investors that tell me, "Well my portfolio is well diversified from risky to less risky, so I should be in good shape."
Those fuckers crack me up. 401k/IRAs will soon make social security look attractive.
And any number of potential Hindenburg Omens have been discarded for being a tiny bit out on the other side of the line. That's why you refine your parameters as you learn. But you don't appoligize because it was close to a non-confirmation.
Let's see, last time we had one and then the confirmation shortly afterward was late 2008 just before..........Opps, I just messed my shorts. :>)
You're a literal confligration of bodily fluids today, CD. :)
LOL
I feel like a 1 year old toddling around in Pampers. I guess that's what old age feels like. :>)
Boxers or briefs?
It depends...
Yes, Depends (XL).
+++
Just will till the Alzheimer kicks in :)
got your mind, you'll be fine.
And is that an improvement?
http://www.livevideo.com/video/69E3EDC8F69148B1ADA5825E17C48968/oops-i-crapped-my-pants-.aspx
.. Just sayin...
Hindenburg, eh???
Anyone got a light?
So does that mean we are at the point of the Hindenburg cycle where Herbert Morrison just said, "The back motors of the ship are just holding it just, just enough to keep it from..." ?
Probably.
I wonder. Who was the crewman on the airship who knew it first? That she was going down? What did he think when he knew?
Maybe he thought "it's going down and there is no escape."
Because I feel like that, some days. Like it's just going down now and there is no escaping it.
I heard once that the most common thing recorded at the end of blackbox inflight recordings, the ones that record cockpit conversations, is "oh shit."
Oh shit. Just like that.
Oh. Shit.
How about,
"Oops", or "Is this a bad time to ask for a raise?"
A client of mine works at the FAA and did work for the NTSB and has told me some interesting anecdotes. What he's said is that often, but by no means always, there is some swearing during the last few minutes. What was very heart rending to hear from him was that when there is time for the flight crew to actually be aware of their final fate, sometimes the flight crew will cry out words of love and affection directly to their family because they are very conscious of the fact that their words are being recorded. This along with other reasons is why they rarely release the actual audio to the public. Or if they do, it is edited. Even the public transcript is edited.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_data_recorder
it occured on 12th , then again on Friday the 13th, it nearly occured on wednesday 11th , and it appears again today......so is this right ??......it has appeared almost 4 times in this month
Add to the HO, the Death Cross in the S&P 500 which happened a couple of months ago. With the 50 dma below the 200 dma and holding steady. Plus, the Consumer Metrics Institutes's charts showing a drop back into the abyss. It's shaping up to be an interesting Fall in the market.
Fall. Indeed.
Epic. Fall.
can u confirm this info...4 times nearly this month ...right???
This is only the second time. The Hindenburg Omen has changed and been refined over the years to remove as many false positives as possible. The first one you mention, the 12th, was a near miss IF you use the WSJ data, which is what the "pros" use. If you use Yahoo data, my understanding is that it was a hit. But the standard for the Omen is the WSJ data. Last Friday was a hit and the first one. There was another near miss this week. And then it hit again today. So no three or four, just two.
McHugh owns the H-O so check it all out through him. He got into some nasty copyright and slander stuff with an analyst who took his marketing pronouncements as market predictions, a real stretch, but then he had to defend himself. I haven't seen his most recent thinking but McHugh is your man on Hindenberg Omens. He is a square shooter, so if you find something, please post it here for our information.
Omens. Sounds so ... ominous.
Why couldn't they have called it the Hindenburg Smiley? Doesn't that make you feel so much better about the entire thing?
I should be in branding and marketing.
Al Harrington? Is that you?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9EOjizFxFA&feature=related
'cuz, then you'd have Trav's "smiley" putting his "digit" into your face.
ewwww
- Ned
I think some Traders are frowning at you.
#uck, #uck, #uck
When this thing blows, it's going to be a mess.
If any of you who are of the lunatic fringe are wondering if there are any other indicators, google "webbot" and see what the latest reports are saying for August 25th - 28th. It is predicting a meltdown.
Do you have a link?
It has been getting interesting. The good readers of the web bot tea leaves are pay sites.
http://webbot-project.blogspot.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web_Bot
CogDis... Nice find, did you pick up what the reference to November 8th is? I didn't, other than it's the same countdown to the end of my 30s.. :(
Never mind... I got it...
Does it predict anything happy?
Oh wait, that's CNBC.
halfpasthuman.com
Boy oh boy, doesn't it look like fall 2008 all over again in the making, yet worse? Sure wouldn't want to be caught in that fiasco. Look out below!
Please excuse the link to a street.com article....but it looks like from this that the correct highs/lows number is not 2.2% but rather 2.5%. Not that it likely matters, unless it does. http://www.thestreet.com/story/10838195/1.html
Where's the POMO? Ya think that isn't being held in reserve to extend the Hindy?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hindenburg_burning.jpg
Oh, the humanity! And all the passengers screaming around here. I told you; it—I can't even talk to people, their friends are out there! Ah! It's... it... it's a... ah! I... I can't talk, ladies and gentlemen. Honest: it's just laying there, mass of smoking wreckage
Not nice
Achtung! Das Hidenburg Omen ist nicht gut!
Haben Sie genug Geld?
Iridium, bitchez!
Bovina Sancta!
I haven't seen mr zigzag avatar since the 1970s
Is that because you bought a bong?
And Comex is low on physical Gold and Silver while the technicals are pointing to an eruption northwards.
Interesting bit of dual symmetry there. One could even say that God does provide signs of what is about to happen for those that are observant.
I believe someone in the COMEX is taking off his shorts...LOL.
Who could it be now...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swQi4CAzmrA
nice `81 attire.
Things are getting interesting! Can't wait until September and October!
It's funny, caught a glimpse of Cramer dismissing the Omen as a joke... Market crashes the next day. Does no one do any technical analysis anymore?... The ES was simply doing a half way back retracement and is now on to it's continual decline. Fibonacci from the recent high of 8/5 to the low of 8/16 gives us a somewhat micro 50% retracement... We should get back to 1050's real soon.
function fear (...);
function greed (...);
PhDs with a Clearasil need have it all covered.
- Ned
Finally!
No need to worry, everyone is fantasically diversified - oh wait a minute no the HFT algos turned the whole market into one southward heading ETF devoid of reality. Nevermind.
See PRPFX for classic diversification and a very enviable long term / short term annual return on decades-long investment return. Really outstanding.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1894882106870902794#
nice ass white girl.
burnokio bendover rose comments on the Hindenburg omen! "About that light you sold me?"
Did anyone bother to look at the list of new highs? A majority of them are prefs, trusts, & ETFs. Few actual stocks make the list...
Thanks again.
Thanks for that research.
Hindenburg Omen... Enter Ctrl + Alt xxxo10100x1211 in the machine. No more Hindenburg Omen.
Hey ... How did you know my password?
It may finally be time to throw the I Ching. But do I focus on the general collapse or what will happen with gold? Consulting the oracle can be very vexing.
Confirmed:
http://www.ambgtrading.com/2010/08/confirmed-hindenburg-omen.html
Yea but when do we get the Titanic Omen!?
The iceberg might have already hit. This is where the band is playing before the mass panic starts.
There are so many negative technicals in alignment now...poor equity seasonality, broadening tops, completed retracements from last year lows, Cardinal Climax, and now Hindenburg Omen confirmation...batten down the hatches when the Kontratieff Winter really starts to take hold: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/gordon081810.html
I don't know ... every Head and Shoulders formation has been followed by a violent upward pulse. The more we talk about these bearish tech formations the more they get gunned. Don't get me wrong I a permabear but it seems that you have to short every thing that looks like an upside breakout and buy every technical 'bearish' appearance.
My thoughts exactly, per my comment further down...
Not trying to sound like a Leo either, but that has been my experience with charts this year. Continued and repeated false breakouts and breakdowns.
I was going to consider it just another false breakdown signal 'til I saw Cramer trashed it. That might just make it inevitable.
Then again, everyone sees him as a contrarian indicator, so...
Knowing that he's a contrairian indicator makes him... and knowing that also makes him...
EVERYONE CALM THE FUCK DOWN...STAND YOUR GROUND, AND DONT SHOOT UNTILL YOU SEE THE WHITES OF ITS EYES!
Hear Hear... well said...
scratch,
I've often wondered how the Revolution and Civil wars were not conducted without the F-Bomb.
But the defensive positions were dug (American's greatest fear was to lose a leg) and range stakes placed at the planned engagement distances. Brits get past the stake, order to shoot. So I'd bet that this was part of the total plan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bunker_Hill
Putnam, Stark, Prescott or Gridley?: my bet-All got the word out. Untrained militia, therefore constant repetition among the force.
and Grant: "A soldier who won't ..."
but he was far from the first.
- Ned
The f-bomb per se was not used as the word of the day was Swive.
As in, 'swive you and your lady, too, ya bloody grifter!'
What if the whites of it's eyes are actually red?
Considering the original reference was to the British, I would guess that they were more interested in how it sounded to posterity than accuracy. Then again, read the account of the maiden voyage of the USS Constitution. Not like we were in any position to cast stones on that count.....
They name hurricanes, so I think it would be appropriate to name the Hindenburg Omens after the song names on Led Zeppelin 1, which had said airship on its album cover. The names are ironically appropriate.
Good Times Bad Times
Babe I'm Gonna Leave You
You Shook Me
Dazed And Confused
Your Time Is Gonna Come
Black Mountain Side
Communication Breakdown
I Can't Quit You Baby
How Many More Times
Hey I heard something freaky. You play back the last 2 years of financial news with the sound off while you play that album, and everything syncs up perfectly.
No not really I made that up. Great album tho.
Do you have to be on mushrooms?
uncle SAM was the mushroom man. honest, he wrote several books on identification, location, non/poisonous, psychedelic (no just kidding, he was a M.D.) Sam Mitchel. google it.
How Many More Times
http://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.nsf/How-many-more-times-lyrics-Led-Ze...
try a revisit to
Eminem - Lose Yourself MUSIC VIDEOhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFYQQPAOz7Y&feature=related
Confirmed: In case you missed it above: No doubts!
http://www.ambgtrading.com/2010/08/confirmed-hindenburg-omen.html
I've been following the work of Laura at - http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/ - primarily to learn more about this technical approach. She has been suggesting a major move down for some time, no surprise, but in the last couple of days, oh boy.....
Resistance is Futile!
sunny
when does support vanish?
When the black swan takes a shit...
Hey what about people bidding the S&P at 666 ? any spook stories about that?
Why do I get the feeling that they are trying desperately to bring in new shorts before they goose this bitch higher? I guess it's hard attracting fresh blood these days. The usual negative suspects (Faber, Fleckenstein, whatever) just wasn't enough this time and the "Death Cross" wasn't enough either, so the MSM are hyping the "HO" and bringing out "von Greyerz", etc...
I hope I'm wrong, since I am a long term short, but I'm getting tired of these head-fakes that are only dragging out the inevitable.
I'm not saying that's not possible, but it does seem like the H.O. is not an easy thing to manipulate, at least according to wikipedia. Maybe some actual TA guys can confirm this.
Well, I believe TD mentioned that it is 70% accurate, but it seems like technicals don't matter when you have Bennie and the Jets throwing money at the system. What we need is a Black Bull/Swan event like what happened today in Spain that scared the shit out of everyone in the stands. Btw, it's not impossible that Wikipedia could be manipulated by the PTB as well.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11022260
"TV footage shows spectators trying to restrain the animal - one fan grabs its tail - as it careers through the stands."
As a sport, I think bullfighting is asinine - but someone needs to buy Mr. Tail Grabber a beer.
Make it a Schlitz Malt Liquor!
LOL
The Omen is looking at sector rotation. The number of highs and lows are the triggers and the other criteria refine it (throwing out false positives).
Although when I smarted off about it above, I got junked ... that's what is going on.
Sector rotation = the herd heading for 'safety'. Well, usually, generally, sorta in a way ... there are exceptions.
"I hope I'm wrong, since I am a long term short, but I'm getting tired of these head-fakes that are only dragging out the inevitable."
noshitsherlock... me too. Let's get on with it.
sunny
i was getting afraid that the markets would fall because of the mega frauds, greed of bankers, humongous deficits..
looks like its just because of this Omen...nothing to see here..i will move myself along..
all these negative bashers and omens...i will hold you all responsible if market doesn't crash soon
I use the mental exercise of "Most frustrating thing the market could do is...". Which in this case, is rally hard into next week - and then finally give up the ghost.
It is getting frothy out there.
The Fed will never let this market go down. All you techies and doomsayers are just pissing in the wind. Go long, helium is obsolete.
why is helium obsolete? i never get tired of the little chirpy voices. (did you mean hydrogen?)
Not to worry Social Security will take care of EVERYONE:
http://www.wcpn.org/WCPN/soi/31591/
The just need to decide how to "fix it". LMFAO
Thank you ... I feel much better now.
Here you go:
* Wall Street (1929 film), directed by Roy William Neill (released Dec. 1, 1929) Black Tuesday was October 29, 1929. About 33 days between crash and movie release.
* Wall Street (1987 film), directed by Oliver Stone (released Dec. 11, 1987) Black Monday was October 19, 1987. About 53 days between crash and movie release.
* Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, a 2010 film sequel to the above, directed by Oliver Stone (to be released Sept. 24, 2010). The average is 43 days of the 1929 and 1987 movie, the minimum is 33 days and maximum is 53 days. Forty three (43) days from September 24 would have been August 12, 53 days would have been August 2, and 33 days would land on August 22.
I think they call this the von Düsseldorf Indicator, named after a famous horse race in Germany.
:-* :-*
Try This!! Markets ALWAYS come crashing down out of good times. When was the last time a market crashed in bad times? Now, does anybody want to call this time we are living in good? Go long!
I'm so high on heroine I cannnet hareedly teype. theese are thes goood tieyimes. Party on Duede!
OPENING THEME LYRICS.
Any time you meet a payment. - Good Times.
Any time you need a friend. - Good Times.
Any time you’re out from under.
Not getting hassled, not getting hustled.
Keepin’ your head above water,
Making a wave when you can.
Temporary lay offs. - Good Times.
Easy credit rip offs. - Good Times.
Scratchin’ and surviving. - Good Times.
Hangin in a chow line - Good Times.
Ain’t we lucky we got ‘em - Good Times.
CLOSING THEME LYRICS
Mmmmmm
Just lookin' out of the window.
Watchin' the asphalt grow.
Thinkin' how it all looks hand-me-down.
Good Times, yeah, yeah Good Times
Keepin' your head above water
Makin' a wave when you can
Temporary lay offs. - Good Times.
VOICE-OVER spoken by John Amos: Good Times was recorded in front of a live studio audience
Easy credit rip offs. - Good Times.
Ain't we lucky we got 'em - Good Times. Source(s): http://www.cfhf.net/lyrics/good-time.htm
Dy-no-mite!
Did any of you make any trades today?
I bought PME.TO and SLW.TO.
To be foillowed by the Hidelberg Omen, wherein one shorts any index the monkey's dart lands on, and begins drinking copious amounts of good beer.
I'm drinking a gold beer right now. Gold = Good = God.
Omens are everywhere it seems.
This is an Apple omen - http://www.news.com.au/technology/ipad/tablet-pc-has-more-features-than-the-ipad/story-fn5knrwy-1225907604152
$35, its a Walmart price point walk out
well, do you feel lucky investor punk?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0-oinyjsk0
If one keeps pushing the market artificially higher, that's mark to myth and nothing else and I don't think any analysis is really valid.
O K U
Oh, Hugh, the manatee!we Dunjue he is very ordinary, mundane like a bunch of dim light from afar, leaf blade of grass, a drop of morning dew. If you pandora beads wear a, you are no ordinary princess, for which we mourn, we lament. In fact, we do not lament for the ordinary, as ordinary?Is also a beauty! Ordinary is the wilderness, conceived with the rise, as long as you with pandora bracelets; ordinary clay, pregnant with gains, as long as you are willing to hard work; ordinary is fine stream, and carries deep, as long as pandorayou are willing to accumulate. Ordinary is a thrill to rest after the fighting, is a brilliant meditation after the pursuit.
hello? some ban this spamming bitch ASAP. is there a ban and delete all posts button? youre going to need one, he'll be telling all his friends by now.