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Hindenburg Omen Creator Has Exited The Market
As we reported first, last week saw the second confirmation of the Hindenburg Omen, most recently sighted for the first time on August 12. Presumably this is an indication of putting one's money where one's mouth is (and away from the market).
From the WSJ:
The latest trigger has prompted the Omen’s creator, Jim Miekka, to exit the market. “I’m taking it seriously and I’m fully out of the market now,” Miekka, a blind mathematician, said in a telephone interview from his home in Surry, Maine. “I would’ve probably stayed in until the beginning of September,” depending on how the indicators varied. “That was my basic plan, until the Hindenburg came along.”
The Omen has been behind every market crash since 1987, but significant stock-market declines have followed only 25% of the time. So there’s a high likelihood that the Omen could be nothing more than a false signal.But that isn’t stopping Miekka from taking any chances, especially as September, typically the market’s worst-performing month, sits only one week away.
“It’s sort of like a funnel cloud,” he said. “It doesn’t mean it’s going to crash, but it’s a high probability. You don’t get a tornado without a funnel cloud.” He added he’s not currently shorting anything, although he may look to short Nasdaq stock index futures in the next few weeks, “depending on how the technicals go.”
Despite the ominous forecast, there are some glimmers of hope. Miekka doesn’t expect to sit on the sidelines for very long. In fact, Miekka, who is an avid target shooter despite being blind, is looking at put volumes and various moving averages that will offer clues of when he will start buying again.
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hindenburg flys blind bitchez!!!
The Hindenburg Omen is so last week.
Just wait until a hyper-paranoid chartist confirms the Cerberus Death Cross, and packs of six-headed dogs wielding flaming rapiers begin to invade major cities in North America. One more false move by Obama and/or the Fed, and an ounce of Alpo will be worth more than an ounce of gold.
Faux pessimism, bitches.
Yeah, keep getting angry at the "other". It's exactly what they want you to do.
The Cardinal Climax is the total heathen vortex meltdown of hell death metal viper bitch!
Only quoting your sad commentary because I'm junking you for the 20th, post/comment death slot slot...
(edit: well maybe its not death/vaporization after all...)
Don't dis da dread....
I thank the Gods for people like you, Red Neck. In any zero sum game, you need losers to pay off the winners. Faux pessimism, my ass.
Tyler, Can you open my comment and past the excell in the right way?
When I paste it, it's all messed up.
It's pretty good actually:
Here's the data for all Hindenburg Omens over the past 25 years:
Date of first Hindenburg Omen Signal # of Signals In Cluster DJIA Subsequent % Decline Time Until Decline Bottomed 8/12/2008 2 Watching Watching 6/6/2008 6 47.3% 276 days 10/16/2007 9 16.3% 99 days 6/13/2007 8 7.1% 64 days 4/7/2006 9 7.0% 34 days 9/21/2005 (1) 5 2.2% 22 days 4/13/2004 (2) 5 5.4% 30 days 6/20/2002 5 15.8% 30 days 6/20/2002 5 23.9% 112 days 6/20/2001 2 25.5% 93 days 3/12/2001 4 11.4% 11 days 9/15/2000 9 12.4% 33 days 7/26/2000 3 9.0% 83 days 1/24/2000 6 16.4% 44 days 6/15/1999 2 6.7% 122 days 2/22/1998 (3) 2 0.2% 1 day 7/21/1998 1 19.7% 41 days 12/11/1997 11 5.8% 32 days 6/12/1996 3 8.8% 34 days 10/09/1995 6 1.7% 1 day 9/19/1994 7 8.2% 65 days 1/25/1994 14 9.6% 69 days 11/03/1993 3 2.1% 2 days 12/02/1991 9 3.5% 7 days 6/27/1990 17 16.3% 91 days 11/01/1989 36 5.0% 91 days 10/11/1989 2 10.0% 5 days 9/14/1987 5 38.2% 36 days 7/14/1986 9 3.6% 21 daysHad to look up the target shooting thing. Interesting.
http://www.wabi.tv/news/7156/target-shooting-for-the-blind
It's good to see someone follow through on the signs and make it known.
If a dude who's blind and can invent a target shooting systems with electronics says to sell and get out of the markets, I'm with him.
My thoughts, exactly. Liesman never invented anything other than a foreskin costume consisting solely of a pink shirt and vein blue tie.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/how-jane-wells-popped-steve-liesmans-and-entire-power-lunch-pom-pom-brigades-propaganda-bubb
Awesome visual.
Reminds me of the old saying: Beware hotdog with lengthwise vein.
"Liesman never invented anything other than a foreskin costume consisting solely of a pink shirt and vein blue tie."
Poetry.
+<grimace>
My thoughts, exactly. Liesman never invented anything other than a foreskin costume consisting solely of a pink shirt and vein blue tie.
Wow. Clever, funny, disturbing, and truthful. Well done hedgeless_horseman.
giggle giggle +++
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbO_SqNPZBk&p=41E59EE1A10783BF&index=1&pl...
A lot of weakness today in the big names of the nas100, specifically Apple. It was an early indicator of what was in store for the mkt, gapping way up and sliding all the way to friday's lows in the first hour of trading. This type of behavior has been more and more prevalent in the last week or so.
Outside of any "indicators" I think overall its just not smart being heavily exposed to equities.
What's really interesting is that the last half hour stick saves are either missing or ineffective. Considering how light volume is, the saves shouldn't be ineffective. Thus for some reason they are deliberately being withheld.
Do the powers that be want a lower market? This smells just like August/Sept/Oct of 2008.
I contend that the PTB want a Republican 'victory' in November, because it will create a perception amongst the sheeple that they have some control over the outcomes..."taking the country back" and stuff. It will occupy the mindset (along with NFL, Fall TV season) for a good 6 months - MSNBC, Fox, etc.
Of course, Republicans, Democrats, same thing.
Give the governor a Harumph!
They gotta chase anyone left into the next big T-bond sale.
CD- you are definately on to something here - Ben needs cover to blow the FED balance sheet to 4 trillion, full montie QE2- a SPX move to the July lows (or lower) should provide cover, with the concobinant take down in the PMs and other commodities will blow up the bond market to near 2% 10yr and a generationally attractive mortgage refi/home price save. Especially as Congress will not change the tax carpet bombing coming in 2011 - Politically I am agnostic cause dem-rep its all the same - the Bama agenda is set and will not be unwound until 2012 earliest. That's why the Dems are not sweating - they just don't give a shite cause they think alla heavy lifting has been done.
Do the powers that be want a lower market?
They may get it anyway as the USD remains a "safe haven." Troubles elsewhere continue to cause global investors to seek safety in the dollar and US Treasuries...for now.
Chart: DX
http://www.screencast.com/t/NTYxZjQ4NmM
So I can have faith that my Puts will make me even more money than I could fathom?
long calls on the Vix are also a great way to exploit down markets (technically put/call volatility, but you get the idea...) and they aren't as expensive as puts.
I'm sitting on some at the moment that expire in October.
I do have some VIX calls, along with some inverse ETF calls. Other than that I have been sitting on mostly Oct/Nov Puts on AAPL, F, GS, BA, and X. Bought most of them 2 weeks ago (got lucky on my timing), and looking to possibly add more VIX calls with todays decline in the VIX.
personally, i find the gamma in OTM ES puts to more attractive than the VIX calls or the ETF puts...
I am on the right track to Weimar... there a Hindenburg next exit...
My money is with Cramer on this "omen" since he is all knowing and would never deceive the public.
The banner ads say I can make a lot of money with him, it's obviously a no-brainer.
Please stop mentioning Cramer. The more you do, the more I must endure his presence in my browser window.
Maybe if we start talking about Justin Bieber we will get some of his advertisements instead!
Get back to work, Geithner!
+
Explains most of Geithner's lack of attention to fix this decaying economy... he can't stop staring at that kids hair.
Maybe if we start talking about Justin Bieber we will get some of his advertisements instead!
Justin Bieber? Jeez. If that's the case how bout Megan Fox?
Megan Fox, you say? Hmm, Megan Fox... Interesting, this Megan Fox theory. (Am I spelling 'Megan Fox' correctly? It is 'Megan Fox', yes?)
Just don't bring up toe nail fungus or viagra.
Firefox + Ad-Block Plus = No Cramer
(Firefox + Ad-Block Plus) * x Readers = the end of free, advertiser subsidized access at ZH
Jenna jameson adds !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Can we talk about Danni Ashe (or insert into babe of your choice here) instead?
Ad Block Plus...
Say, "Who or what are you talking about?" to Cramer, Cougars, StateFarm and a whole lot of other GoogleAds slow down my surfin' experience...
('Course ya gotta dump the MS InternetExploder...)
He's standing on his fists like a dumb gorilla.
What about gold/silver mining stocks?
They will do extremely well from what I've gathered after reading a few articles/comments around here. PM's are unique in that they will go up regardless of what happens in the real economy.
We start from the axiom that only PM's are real money and that this fact has been obscured from the public because [insert pet conspiracy theory]. Eventually the public will realize this and they will clamor to get their hands on some, but there will be none available because you already bought it all. Then you have the last laugh.
Mining stocks were no refuge in the 2008 liquidity crash...
What about the "Kaiser Wilhelm" omen ? :=)))
25%.....? I'm sticking to reading my tea leaves, they're coming in at 32,5%.
Are the omens additive? I.e., if there's a 25% chance of the market following the omen, then if you have 3 (4?) omens in a couple weeks, is that a probability of 75%? Not that I have a dog in this fight, but I watch my dog. She's been sitting for the last week looking at the gate all day. So I closed my $235 401K account. :)
No. After the omen has been confirmed, more events do not increase the odds of it's occurrence. It was explained in an earlier thread.
Thanks, I'll shoot the dog.
LOL
My understanding is that after the confirmation, no additional omens change the statistical chance very much. And those chances vary by the percentage drop you're looking at/for. Per Dr. Robert McHugh, there's a 77.8% chance of a 5% drop in the next four months and a 55.6% chance of a 8% drop. The probability percentage goes down as the percentage drop increases. All the way to a 30% chance of a 15% drop. Only one out of roughly 13 times will this signal fail.
But remember that these are averages. Has anyone seen economic conditions, including Gvt debt, such as they exist today ever in their life time? I'd say that changes things a bit.
If its not one thing, it'll be another - a crash is coming; what will trigger it remains to be seen, but this much debt simply cannot be sustained.
The thing I don't get about you chart type folks is that there are no fundamentals--you guys say it yourselves. "The market is rigged" and "it's a casino." What makes you think any sort of analysis means doodly squat when the government or the Fed is manipulating everything?
My dear ColonelCooper - forgive me for asking, but your avatar, while being too small for me to be certain, has an unfortunate resemblence to either prolapsed internal hemorrhoids or a prolapsed rectum. What is it? Please put me out of my misery and answer.
I've asked. He says it's a hemorrhoid. There ya go.
“That was my basic plan, until the Hindenburg came along.”
So I got that going for me, which is nice.
Do you think we might see another HO signal today?
Doubt it; we didn't get the number of new highs required.
"In fact, Miekka, who is an avid target shooter despite being blind..."
Oh my goodness. I don't know what to say about that except I find the mental image of a bling guy shooting skeet pretty fucking funny.
Regarding the 25% accuracy of the HO, is this the equivalent of the proverbial "blind squirrel finding a nut"? (pun intended)
The clip below is, of course, obligatory.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk47saogI8o
The blind leading the sighted. Excellent!
Hedge fund high-beta sex toy LVS due for a Hindenburg moment....they've been shorting as the dopes keep buying...enjoy the fiery crash...Adios, MF!
Hindenburg Omen. Sounds like a double feature from 1976.
Starring the obligatory Christopher Lee of course.
Yeah, I'm thinking after Labor Day there's going to be some seriously ugly action out there. Which will, naturally, be followed by "Gimme $700 billion or the economy gets it!" type of demands. But I am having trouble with Timmay (Eddie Haskell Jr) delivering those lines.
The 3pm ramp job is looking a bit weak today.
Seems to be ramping in the wrong direction. Must be all that profit taking.
The Obama Omen has been flashing severe depression, collapse of the Republic and a bull market in socialism since Nov-08
The Bush Omen gave us eight consecutive warnings, collapse of the Democracy, and a bull market in Fascism. Didn't turn out that way. (that's not my flag by the way)
Why doesn't this guy have some balls and GET SHORT!
Because the HOmen only has a 25% chance of being correct so there is a 75% chance the market will rise or stay flat . Use your brain, and keep your balls out of the market there is a high likelyhood they will be kicked
Because the HO does not mean the market wil crash immediately. It means there is a high likelihood that the market will decline in the next 120 days.
The Hindenberg baloon is full of helium this time, not hydrogen.
The dollar notes that are going to ignite the baloon are too wet with sweat from Ben's heli and hence the finanical explosion has been delayed but it will come when the global warming dries out the touch paper.
Patience is required? LOL
Oh the humanity!
You're showing your age.................. ;>)
Firm believer in contrarian investing/trading.
I'd love to see bearish sentiment and short interest data. Despite all the apparent pessimism and gloom and doom talk, bearish sentiment was at a massively complacent 27.4% a couple weeks ago. If the short interest is similarly at complacent levels, it's hard to be a contrarian and call for a bottom, even with all this bearish talk of Hindenburg Omens, double dip, etc, that has pervaded the mainstream media.
Instead of bears going short and providing fuel for a strong rally, it could be that bears are "going dark" and just pulling out altogether, not bothering to press their shorts. Hell, why should they, with the Feds conspiring to inflate equities and install defacto puts. Better to just sit on the sidelines.
Jim Cramer has bad advice 60 % of the time...
He should not be on TV ...
The HO is very interesting as is Mercury retrograde and all. However, I think it is very important for us to keep in mind that we're probably experiencing something that is, if not entirely unique, then something that doesn't happen for more than one lifetime. There aren't a lot of TA indicators that are going to work as planned in context of the current market behavior.
Miekka is going to Mekka's gold...
Got Gold and FOFOA, Bitchez...
Miekka has opened his eyes and saw: It's all fraud and ponzi...
Physical gold is more worth than paper algorythms...
Got Gold and FOFOA, Bitchez...
Beware, its only when you no longer see fraud and ponzi that the real collapse begins. if gold was not money I would buy it. Otherwise there is no currency exchange which is going to save you.
Secondly those algorithms are magnetic, not paper. As such they represent a useful code, while as paper they represent nothing really. Its a small point maybe, but when paper currency is converted to credit, which is non-money, it acquires new meaning. One suspects the beauty of these algorithms is their ability to form themselves to their environment, and they exist as something beyond a fixed formula (on paper).
gold is to paper as paper is to credit, but in a collapsing, or any economy going into reverse, its possible to look at the golden light at the end of the tunnel, and not realize it is another train.
Updated S&P500 chart:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Back in 100% FIXED in my 401k as of Friday. Bailed out of the Pimco TRF all the way and no way I buy any stock or mutual scum of any kind. I will just sit and re-evaluate after the crash.
Hindenburg Omen sounds like a film starring Gregory Peck.
buy UNG all the way to the bottom, a lot people will be sticking their heads in the oven..
99% of the world are going to lose wealth over the next 10 years , thats all im certain of.
I'll give Generation Y an A+ for not becomming depressed during the first 2 years of this Greatest Depression , although im betting within the next 2 years they fast forward straight through all 7 stages of grief.
Ive priced it all in and my emotional outlook can only improve , at least thats what i tell friends and family.
Forgive me if the thread that connects this blog post I'm about to share doesn't match up precisely with the topic - but I think its an intriguing "man on the street" view of Japan's coming economic decline.
Executive summary - given population declines across the country now matching 1920's levels in terms of age demographics, there is nothing but hurt coming for Japan no matter what policies they adopt.
Compelling reading with pictures of abandoned towns and other decay - http://spikejapan.wordpress.com/page/6/
Well, I enjoyed that link, from a casual reader's point of view anyway, great imagery. And it reminded me of the wonderful manga 'YKK' which depicts a future post-decline Japan, populated mainly by the aged, with considerably decayed infrastructure and standard of living, but generally content due to strong community cohesion and cooperation.
http://view.thespectrum.net/series/ykk-volume-01.html
I stopped looking at charts when I realized I got the same answer turning them upside down.
Warren Buffet
If this guy were deaf and dumb, in addition to being blind I'd follow his advice. I have an apocalypse omen I prefer. It's when retail starts BUYING stocks and sells bonds that I'll get bearish. With Joes Six-Pack in cash and bonds, I'm betting on a gap higher in yields (M3 is no longer falling), and surging stocks- at least commodity based ones.
I mean, c'mon, the herd is never right!
If this guy were deaf and dumb, in addition to being blind I'd follow his advice.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GE8nR-5kL4&feature=search
Thanks for such a great post and the review, I am totally impressed! Keep stuff like this coming!...
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