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Hindenburg Omen Creator Has Exited The Market

Tyler Durden's picture


As we reported first, last week saw the second confirmation of the Hindenburg Omen, most recently sighted for the first time on August 12. Presumably this is an indication of putting one's money where one's mouth is (and away from the market).

From the WSJ:

The latest trigger has prompted the Omen’s creator, Jim Miekka, to exit the market. “I’m taking it seriously and I’m fully out of the market now,” Miekka, a blind mathematician, said in a telephone interview from his home in Surry, Maine. “I would’ve probably stayed in until the beginning of September,” depending on how the indicators varied. “That was my basic plan, until the Hindenburg came along.”

The Omen has been behind every market crash since 1987, but significant stock-market declines have followed only 25% of the time. So there’s a high likelihood that the Omen could be nothing more than a false signal.

But that isn’t stopping Miekka from taking any chances, especially as September, typically the market’s worst-performing month, sits only one week away.

“It’s sort of like a funnel cloud,” he said. “It doesn’t mean it’s going to crash, but it’s a high probability. You don’t get a tornado without a funnel cloud.” He added he’s not currently shorting anything, although he may look to short Nasdaq stock index futures in the next few weeks, “depending on how the technicals go.”

Despite the ominous forecast, there are some glimmers of hope. Miekka doesn’t expect to sit on the sidelines for very long. In fact, Miekka, who is an avid target shooter despite being blind, is looking at put volumes and various moving averages that will offer clues of when he will start buying again.


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Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:46 | 538168 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

hindenburg flys blind bitchez!!!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:06 | 538244 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

The Hindenburg Omen is so last week.  

Just wait until a hyper-paranoid chartist confirms the Cerberus Death Cross, and packs of six-headed dogs wielding flaming rapiers begin to invade major cities in North America.  One more false move by Obama and/or the Fed, and an ounce of Alpo will be worth more than an ounce of gold.  

Faux pessimism, bitches.  


Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:25 | 538306 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Yeah, keep getting angry at the "other".  It's exactly what they want you to do.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:26 | 538307 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

The Cardinal Climax is the total heathen vortex meltdown of hell death metal viper bitch!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 21:14 | 539158 A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

Red Neck Repugnicant
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 12:06

The Hindenburg Omen is so last week.  

Just wait until a hyper-paranoid chartist confirms the Cerberus Death Cross, and packs of six-headed dogs wielding flaming rapiers begin to invade major cities in North America.  One more false move by Obama and/or the Fed, and an ounce of Alpo will be worth more than an ounce of gold.  

Faux pessimism, bitches. 


Only quoting your sad commentary because I'm junking you for the 20th, post/comment death slot slot...

(edit: well maybe its not death/vaporization after all...)

Don't dis da dread....

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 01:50 | 539480 russki standart
russki standart's picture

I thank the Gods for people like you, Red Neck. In any zero sum game, you need losers to pay off the winners. Faux pessimism, my ass.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 07:30 | 539632 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Tyler, Can you open my comment and past the excell in the right way?

When I paste it, it's all messed up.


It's pretty good actually:


Here's the data for all Hindenburg Omens over the past 25 years:

Date of first Hindenburg Omen Signal  # of Signals  In Cluster DJIA  Subsequent  % Decline Time Until Decline Bottomed 8/12/2008 2 Watching Watching 6/6/2008 6 47.3% 276 days 10/16/2007 9 16.3% 99 days 6/13/2007 8 7.1% 64 days 4/7/2006 9 7.0% 34 days 9/21/2005 (1) 5 2.2% 22 days 4/13/2004 (2) 5 5.4% 30 days 6/20/2002 5 15.8% 30 days 6/20/2002 5 23.9% 112 days 6/20/2001 2 25.5% 93 days 3/12/2001 4 11.4% 11 days 9/15/2000 9 12.4% 33 days 7/26/2000 3 9.0% 83 days 1/24/2000 6 16.4% 44 days 6/15/1999 2 6.7% 122 days 2/22/1998 (3) 2 0.2% 1 day 7/21/1998 1 19.7% 41 days 12/11/1997 11 5.8% 32 days 6/12/1996 3 8.8% 34 days 10/09/1995 6 1.7% 1 day 9/19/1994 7 8.2% 65 days 1/25/1994 14 9.6% 69 days 11/03/1993 3 2.1% 2 days 12/02/1991 9 3.5% 7 days 6/27/1990 17 16.3% 91 days 11/01/1989 36 5.0% 91 days 10/11/1989 2 10.0% 5 days 9/14/1987 5 38.2% 36 days 7/14/1986 9 3.6% 21 days

(1) In September 2005, the Fed pumped $148 billion in liquidity from the first week in September, just before the Hindenburg Omens were generated -- to the third week of October, an 11 percent annual rate of growth in M-3 (2.5 times the rate of GDP growth and 5 times the reported inflation rate), to stave off a crash. The liquidity held the market to a 2.2 percent decline from the initiation of the signal.

(2) In April 2004, the Fed pumped $155 billion in liquidity from the last week in April -- right after the Hindenburg Omens were generated -- to the third week of May, a 22 percent annual rate of growth in M-3, to stave off a crash. Even with the liquidity, the market still fell 5.0 percent.

(3) The 12/23/1998 signal barely qualified, as the McClellan Oscillator was barely negative at -9, and New Highs were nearly double New Lows. Had this weak signal not occurred, condition # 5 would not have been met. This skin-of-the-teeth confirmation may be why it failed. It says something for having multiple, strong confirming signals.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:46 | 538173 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Had to look up the target shooting thing.  Interesting.

It's good to see someone follow through on the signs and make it known.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:11 | 538257 Jason T
Jason T's picture

If a dude who's blind and can invent a target shooting systems with electronics says to sell and get out of the markets, I'm with him.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:19 | 538271 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

If a dude who's blind and can invent a target shooting systems with electronics (and a beat-the-odds technical analysis algo with more than three variables) says to sell and get out of the markets, I'm with him.

My thoughts, exactly.  Liesman never invented anything other than a foreskin costume consisting solely of a pink shirt and vein blue tie.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:20 | 538284 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Awesome visual.

Reminds me of the old saying: Beware hotdog with lengthwise vein.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:29 | 538319 UncleFurker
UncleFurker's picture

"Liesman never invented anything other than a foreskin costume consisting solely of a pink shirt and vein blue tie."




Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:31 | 538330 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture


Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:36 | 538347 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

My thoughts, exactly.  Liesman never invented anything other than a foreskin costume consisting solely of a pink shirt and vein blue tie.

Wow.  Clever, funny, disturbing, and truthful. Well done hedgeless_horseman.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:37 | 538348 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

giggle giggle +++

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:47 | 538177 hdunn2
hdunn2's picture

A lot of weakness today in the big names of the nas100, specifically Apple. It was an early indicator of what was in store for the mkt, gapping way up and sliding all the way to friday's lows in the first hour of trading. This type of behavior has been more and more prevalent in the last week or so.


Outside of any "indicators" I think overall its just not smart being heavily exposed to equities. 

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:34 | 538339 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

What's really interesting is that the last half hour stick saves are either missing or ineffective. Considering how light volume is, the saves shouldn't be ineffective. Thus for some reason they are deliberately being withheld.

Do the powers that be want a lower market? This smells just like August/Sept/Oct of 2008.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:24 | 538671 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I contend that the PTB want a Republican 'victory' in November, because it will create a perception amongst the sheeple that they have some control over the outcomes..."taking the country back" and stuff. It will occupy the mindset (along with NFL, Fall TV season) for a good 6 months - MSNBC, Fox, etc. 

Of course, Republicans, Democrats, same thing.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 19:35 | 538981 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Give the governor a Harumph!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:54 | 538747 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

They gotta chase anyone left into the next big T-bond sale.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:55 | 538750 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

CD- you are definately on to something here - Ben needs cover to blow the FED balance sheet to 4 trillion, full montie QE2- a SPX move to the July lows (or lower) should provide cover, with the concobinant take down in the PMs and other commodities will blow up the bond market to near 2% 10yr and a generationally attractive mortgage refi/home price save. Especially as Congress will not change the tax carpet bombing coming in 2011 - Politically I am agnostic cause dem-rep its all the same - the Bama agenda is set and will not be unwound until 2012 earliest.  That's why the Dems are not sweating - they just don't give a shite cause they think alla heavy lifting has been done.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 22:24 | 539184 99er
99er's picture

Do the powers that be want a lower market?

They may get it anyway as the USD remains a "safe haven." Troubles elsewhere continue to cause global investors to seek safety in the dollar and US Treasuries...for now.

Chart: DX

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:48 | 538180 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

So I can have faith that my Puts will make me even more money than I could fathom?

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:03 | 538239 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

long calls on the Vix are also a great way to exploit down markets (technically put/call volatility, but you get the idea...) and they aren't as expensive as puts.

I'm sitting on some at the moment that expire in October.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:08 | 538252 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I do have some VIX calls, along with some inverse ETF calls.  Other than that I have been sitting on mostly Oct/Nov Puts on AAPL, F, GS, BA, and X.  Bought most of them 2 weeks ago (got lucky on my timing), and looking to possibly add more VIX calls with todays decline in the VIX. 

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:50 | 538386 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

personally, i find the gamma in OTM ES puts to more attractive than the VIX calls or the ETF puts...

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:51 | 538191 Rock N Roll Det...
Rock N Roll Detective's picture

I am on the right track to Weimar... there a Hindenburg next exit...

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:55 | 538197 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

My money is with Cramer on this "omen" since he is all knowing and would never deceive the public.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:56 | 538211 redpill
redpill's picture

The banner ads say I can make a lot of money with him, it's obviously a no-brainer.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:13 | 538261 whereismyorange
whereismyorange's picture

Please stop mentioning Cramer. The more you do, the more I must endure his presence in my browser window.

Maybe if we start talking about Justin Bieber we will get some of his advertisements instead!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:24 | 538302 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Maybe if we start talking about Justin Bieber we will get some of his advertisements instead!

Get back to work, Geithner!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 16:10 | 538449 Cincitucky
Cincitucky's picture


Explains most of Geithner's lack of attention to fix this decaying economy... he can't stop staring at that kids hair.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:59 | 538761 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

Maybe if we start talking about Justin Bieber we will get some of his advertisements instead!

Justin Bieber? Jeez. If that's the case how bout Megan Fox?

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 18:51 | 538905 MichaelG
MichaelG's picture

Megan Fox, you say? Hmm, Megan Fox... Interesting, this Megan Fox theory. (Am I spelling 'Megan Fox' correctly? It is 'Megan Fox', yes?)

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 20:38 | 539111 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Just don't bring up toe nail fungus or viagra.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 16:36 | 538529 ro.sniper
ro.sniper's picture

Firefox + Ad-Block Plus = No Cramer

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 05:06 | 539582's picture

(Firefox + Ad-Block Plus) * x Readers = the end of free, advertiser subsidized access at ZH

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 20:21 | 539081 Moneygrove
Moneygrove's picture

Jenna jameson adds !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 20:50 | 539134 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Can we talk about Danni Ashe (or insert into babe of your choice here) instead?


Mon, 08/23/2010 - 22:04 | 539243 A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

Ad Block Plus... 

Say, "Who or what are you talking about?" to Cramer, Cougars, StateFarm and a whole lot of other GoogleAds slow down my surfin' experience...

('Course ya gotta dump the MS InternetExploder...)

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:16 | 538272 andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

He's standing on his fists like a dumb gorilla.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:53 | 538201 flacon
flacon's picture

What about gold/silver mining stocks? 

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:21 | 538290 sid farkas
sid farkas's picture

They will do extremely well from what I've gathered after reading a few articles/comments around here. PM's are unique in that they will go up regardless of what happens in the real economy.

We start from the axiom that only PM's are real money and that this fact has been obscured from the public because [insert pet conspiracy theory]. Eventually the public will realize this and they will clamor to get their hands on some, but there will be none available because you already bought it all. Then you have the last laugh.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:25 | 538675 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Mining stocks were no refuge in the 2008 liquidity crash...

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:55 | 538204 MrTrader
MrTrader's picture

What about the "Kaiser Wilhelm" omen ? :=)))

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:55 | 538205 George the baby...
George the baby crusher's picture

25%.....? I'm sticking to reading my tea leaves, they're coming in at 32,5%.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:02 | 538218 Marley
Marley's picture

Are the omens additive?  I.e., if there's a 25% chance of the market following the omen, then if you have 3 (4?) omens in a couple weeks, is that a probability of 75%?  Not that I have a dog in this fight, but I watch my dog.  She's been sitting for the last week looking at the gate all day.  So I closed my $235 401K account.  :)

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:14 | 538266 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

No.  After the omen has been confirmed, more events do not increase the odds of it's occurrence.  It was explained in an earlier thread.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:21 | 538294 Marley
Marley's picture

Thanks, I'll shoot the dog.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:35 | 538341 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture


Mon, 08/23/2010 - 16:26 | 538496 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

My understanding is that after the confirmation, no additional omens change the statistical chance very much. And those chances vary by the percentage drop you're looking at/for. Per Dr. Robert McHugh, there's a 77.8% chance of a 5% drop in the next four months and a 55.6% chance of a 8% drop. The probability percentage goes down as the percentage drop increases. All the way to a 30% chance of a 15% drop. Only one out of roughly 13 times will this signal fail.

But remember that these are averages. Has anyone seen economic conditions, including Gvt debt, such as they exist today ever in their life time? I'd say that changes things a bit.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 18:11 | 538801 Mark Noonan
Mark Noonan's picture

If its not one thing, it'll be another - a crash is coming; what will trigger it remains to be seen, but this much debt simply cannot be sustained.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 08:43 | 539771 aerojet
aerojet's picture

The thing I don't get about you chart type folks is that there are no fundamentals--you guys say it yourselves.  "The market is rigged" and "it's a casino."  What makes you think any sort of analysis means doodly squat when the government or the Fed is manipulating everything? 

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 20:52 | 539137 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

My dear ColonelCooper - forgive me for asking, but your avatar, while being too small for me to be certain, has an unfortunate resemblence to either prolapsed internal hemorrhoids or a prolapsed rectum.  What is it?   Please put me out of my misery and answer.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 00:26 | 539406 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I've asked.  He says it's a hemorrhoid.  There ya go.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:59 | 538225 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

 “That was my basic plan, until the Hindenburg came along.”

So I got that going for me, which is nice.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:00 | 538226 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Do you think we might see another HO signal today?

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 19:40 | 538990 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Doubt it; we didn't get the number of new highs required.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:07 | 538236 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

"In fact, Miekka, who is an avid target shooter despite being blind..."

Oh my goodness. I don't know what to say about that except I find the mental image of a bling guy shooting skeet pretty fucking funny.

Regarding the 25% accuracy of the HO, is this the equivalent of the proverbial "blind squirrel finding a nut"? (pun intended)

The clip below is, of course, obligatory.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:03 | 538238 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

The blind leading the sighted. Excellent!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:07 | 538250 gigeze787
gigeze787's picture

Hedge fund high-beta sex toy LVS due for a Hindenburg moment....they've been shorting as the dopes keep buying...enjoy the fiery crash...Adios, MF!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:17 | 538269 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Hindenburg Omen. Sounds like a double feature from 1976.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 00:29 | 539408 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Starring the obligatory Christopher Lee of course.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:14 | 538270 Steaming_Wookie_Doo
Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

Yeah, I'm thinking after Labor Day there's going to be some seriously ugly action out there. Which will, naturally, be followed by "Gimme $700 billion or the economy gets it!" type of demands. But I am having trouble with Timmay (Eddie Haskell Jr) delivering those lines.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:20 | 538282 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The 3pm ramp job is looking a bit weak today. 

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:40 | 538356 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Seems to be ramping in the wrong direction.  Must be all that profit taking.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:22 | 538295 Chemba
Chemba's picture

The Obama Omen has been flashing severe depression, collapse of the Republic and a bull market in socialism since Nov-08

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:21 | 538666 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

The Bush Omen gave us eight consecutive warnings, collapse of the Democracy, and a bull market in Fascism. Didn't turn out that way. (that's not my flag by the way) 

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:24 | 538303 No More Bubbles
No More Bubbles's picture

Why doesn't this guy have some balls and GET SHORT!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:39 | 538355 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Because the HOmen only has a 25% chance of being correct so there is a 75% chance the market will rise or stay flat . Use your brain, and keep your balls out of the market there is a high likelyhood they will be kicked

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 16:23 | 538492 Damage Inc.
Damage Inc.'s picture

Because the HO does not mean the market wil crash immediately.  It means there is a high likelihood that the market will decline in the next 120 days.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:28 | 538318 ventcap
ventcap's picture

The Hindenberg baloon is full of helium this time, not hydrogen.

The dollar notes that are going to ignite the baloon are too wet with sweat from Ben's heli and hence the finanical explosion has been delayed but it will come when the global warming dries out the touch paper.

Patience is required? LOL

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:39 | 538353 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Oh the humanity!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 18:02 | 538774 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

You're showing your age..................  ;>)

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:40 | 538360 clinton
clinton's picture

Firm believer in contrarian investing/trading. 

I'd love to see bearish sentiment and short interest data.  Despite all the apparent pessimism and gloom and doom talk, bearish sentiment was at a massively complacent 27.4% a couple weeks ago.  If the short interest is similarly at complacent levels, it's hard to be a contrarian and call for a bottom, even with all this bearish talk of Hindenburg Omens, double dip, etc, that has pervaded the mainstream media. 

Instead of bears going short and providing fuel for a strong rally, it could be that bears are "going dark" and just pulling out altogether, not bothering to press their shorts.  Hell, why should they, with the Feds conspiring to inflate equities and install defacto puts.  Better to just sit on the sidelines.    

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:56 | 538402 JimboJammer
JimboJammer's picture

Jim  Cramer  has  bad  advice  60  %  of  the  time...

He  should  not  be  on  TV ...

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:58 | 538414 Cursive
Cursive's picture

The HO is very interesting as is Mercury retrograde and all.  However, I think it is very important for us to keep in mind that we're probably experiencing something that is, if not entirely unique, then something that doesn't happen for more than one lifetime.  There aren't a lot of TA indicators that are going to work as planned in context of the current market behavior.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 16:39 | 538532 Jimmy Bora
Jimmy Bora's picture

Miekka is going to Mekka's gold...

Got Gold and FOFOA, Bitchez...

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 16:41 | 538536 Jimmy Bora
Jimmy Bora's picture

Miekka has opened his eyes and saw: It's all fraud and ponzi...


Physical gold is more worth than paper algorythms...

Got Gold and FOFOA, Bitchez...

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:42 | 538711 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

Beware, its only when you no longer see fraud and ponzi that the real collapse begins. if gold was not money I would buy it. Otherwise there is no currency exchange which is going to save you.

Secondly those algorithms are magnetic, not paper. As such they represent a useful code, while as paper they represent nothing really. Its a small point maybe, but when paper currency is converted to credit, which is non-money, it acquires new meaning. One suspects the beauty of these algorithms is their ability to form themselves to their environment, and they exist as something beyond a fixed formula (on paper). 

gold is to paper as paper is to credit, but in a collapsing, or any economy going into reverse, its possible to look at the golden light at the end of the tunnel, and not realize it is another train.



Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:18 | 538652 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Updated S&P500 chart:

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:27 | 538678 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Back in 100% FIXED in my 401k as of Friday.  Bailed out of the Pimco TRF all the way and no way I buy any stock or mutual scum of any kind. I will just sit and re-evaluate after the crash.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:32 | 538686 So I Got That G...
So I Got That Going For Me's picture

Hindenburg Omen sounds like a film starring Gregory Peck.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:44 | 538723 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

buy UNG all the way to the bottom, a lot people will be sticking their heads in the oven..

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 18:26 | 538843 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

99% of the world are going to lose wealth over the next 10 years , thats all im certain of.

I'll give Generation Y an A+ for not becomming depressed during the first 2 years of this Greatest Depression , although im betting within the next 2 years they fast forward straight through all 7 stages of grief.


Ive priced it all in and my emotional outlook can only improve , at least thats what i tell friends and family.


Mon, 08/23/2010 - 18:48 | 538900 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

Forgive me if the thread that connects this blog post I'm about to share doesn't match up precisely with the topic - but I think its an intriguing "man on the street" view of Japan's coming economic decline.

Executive summary - given population declines across the country now matching 1920's levels in terms of age demographics, there is nothing but hurt coming for Japan no matter what policies they adopt.

Compelling reading with pictures of abandoned towns and other decay -

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 22:58 | 539321 Abraham Snake
Abraham Snake's picture

Well, I enjoyed that link, from a casual reader's point of view anyway, great imagery. And it reminded me of the wonderful manga 'YKK' which depicts a future post-decline Japan, populated mainly by the aged, with considerably decayed infrastructure and standard of living, but generally content due to strong community cohesion and cooperation.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 23:18 | 539349 laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

I stopped looking at charts when I realized I got the same answer turning them upside down.

Warren Buffet

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 23:42 | 539373 Sherman McCoy
Sherman McCoy's picture

If this guy were deaf and dumb, in addition to being blind I'd follow his advice. I have an apocalypse omen I prefer. It's when retail starts BUYING stocks and sells bonds that I'll get bearish. With Joes Six-Pack in cash and bonds, I'm betting on a gap higher in yields (M3 is no longer falling), and surging stocks- at least commodity based ones.


I mean, c'mon, the herd is never right!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 05:17 | 539588's picture

If this guy were deaf and dumb, in addition to being blind I'd follow his advice.

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Herry12's picture

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