• BullionStar
    05/30/2016 - 21:24
    The US Gold Market is best known as the home of gold futures trading on the COMEX in New York. The COMEX has a literal monopoly on gold futures trading volumes worldwide, but very little physical...

Hindenburg Omen Creator Has Exited The Market

Tyler Durden's picture




 
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Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:46 | 538168 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

hindenburg flys blind bitchez!!!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:06 | 538244 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

The Hindenburg Omen is so last week.  

Just wait until a hyper-paranoid chartist confirms the Cerberus Death Cross, and packs of six-headed dogs wielding flaming rapiers begin to invade major cities in North America.  One more false move by Obama and/or the Fed, and an ounce of Alpo will be worth more than an ounce of gold.  

Faux pessimism, bitches.  

 

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:25 | 538306 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Yeah, keep getting angry at the "other".  It's exactly what they want you to do.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:26 | 538307 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

The Cardinal Climax is the total heathen vortex meltdown of hell death metal viper bitch!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 21:14 | 539158 A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

Red Neck Repugnicant
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 12:06
#538244

The Hindenburg Omen is so last week.  

Just wait until a hyper-paranoid chartist confirms the Cerberus Death Cross, and packs of six-headed dogs wielding flaming rapiers begin to invade major cities in North America.  One more false move by Obama and/or the Fed, and an ounce of Alpo will be worth more than an ounce of gold.  

Faux pessimism, bitches. 

 

Only quoting your sad commentary because I'm junking you for the 20th, post/comment death slot slot...

(edit: well maybe its not death/vaporization after all...)

Don't dis da dread....

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 01:50 | 539480 russki standart
russki standart's picture

I thank the Gods for people like you, Red Neck. In any zero sum game, you need losers to pay off the winners. Faux pessimism, my ass.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 07:30 | 539632 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Tyler, Can you open my comment and past the excell in the right way?

When I paste it, it's all messed up.

 

It's pretty good actually:

 

Here's the data for all Hindenburg Omens over the past 25 years:

Date of first Hindenburg Omen Signal  # of Signals  In Cluster DJIA  Subsequent  % Decline Time Until Decline Bottomed 8/12/2008 2 Watching Watching 6/6/2008 6 47.3% 276 days 10/16/2007 9 16.3% 99 days 6/13/2007 8 7.1% 64 days 4/7/2006 9 7.0% 34 days 9/21/2005 (1) 5 2.2% 22 days 4/13/2004 (2) 5 5.4% 30 days 6/20/2002 5 15.8% 30 days 6/20/2002 5 23.9% 112 days 6/20/2001 2 25.5% 93 days 3/12/2001 4 11.4% 11 days 9/15/2000 9 12.4% 33 days 7/26/2000 3 9.0% 83 days 1/24/2000 6 16.4% 44 days 6/15/1999 2 6.7% 122 days 2/22/1998 (3) 2 0.2% 1 day 7/21/1998 1 19.7% 41 days 12/11/1997 11 5.8% 32 days 6/12/1996 3 8.8% 34 days 10/09/1995 6 1.7% 1 day 9/19/1994 7 8.2% 65 days 1/25/1994 14 9.6% 69 days 11/03/1993 3 2.1% 2 days 12/02/1991 9 3.5% 7 days 6/27/1990 17 16.3% 91 days 11/01/1989 36 5.0% 91 days 10/11/1989 2 10.0% 5 days 9/14/1987 5 38.2% 36 days 7/14/1986 9 3.6% 21 days

(1) In September 2005, the Fed pumped $148 billion in liquidity from the first week in September, just before the Hindenburg Omens were generated -- to the third week of October, an 11 percent annual rate of growth in M-3 (2.5 times the rate of GDP growth and 5 times the reported inflation rate), to stave off a crash. The liquidity held the market to a 2.2 percent decline from the initiation of the signal.

(2) In April 2004, the Fed pumped $155 billion in liquidity from the last week in April -- right after the Hindenburg Omens were generated -- to the third week of May, a 22 percent annual rate of growth in M-3, to stave off a crash. Even with the liquidity, the market still fell 5.0 percent.

(3) The 12/23/1998 signal barely qualified, as the McClellan Oscillator was barely negative at -9, and New Highs were nearly double New Lows. Had this weak signal not occurred, condition # 5 would not have been met. This skin-of-the-teeth confirmation may be why it failed. It says something for having multiple, strong confirming signals.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:46 | 538173 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Had to look up the target shooting thing.  Interesting.

http://www.wabi.tv/news/7156/target-shooting-for-the-blind

It's good to see someone follow through on the signs and make it known.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:11 | 538257 Jason T
Jason T's picture

If a dude who's blind and can invent a target shooting systems with electronics says to sell and get out of the markets, I'm with him.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:19 | 538271 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

If a dude who's blind and can invent a target shooting systems with electronics (and a beat-the-odds technical analysis algo with more than three variables) says to sell and get out of the markets, I'm with him.

My thoughts, exactly.  Liesman never invented anything other than a foreskin costume consisting solely of a pink shirt and vein blue tie.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/how-jane-wells-popped-steve-liesmans-and-entire-power-lunch-pom-pom-brigades-propaganda-bubb

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:20 | 538284 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Awesome visual.

Reminds me of the old saying: Beware hotdog with lengthwise vein.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:29 | 538319 UncleFurker
UncleFurker's picture

"Liesman never invented anything other than a foreskin costume consisting solely of a pink shirt and vein blue tie."

 

Poetry.

 


Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:31 | 538330 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

+<grimace>

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:36 | 538347 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

My thoughts, exactly.  Liesman never invented anything other than a foreskin costume consisting solely of a pink shirt and vein blue tie.


Wow.  Clever, funny, disturbing, and truthful. Well done hedgeless_horseman.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:37 | 538348 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

giggle giggle +++

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:47 | 538177 hdunn2
hdunn2's picture

A lot of weakness today in the big names of the nas100, specifically Apple. It was an early indicator of what was in store for the mkt, gapping way up and sliding all the way to friday's lows in the first hour of trading. This type of behavior has been more and more prevalent in the last week or so.

 

Outside of any "indicators" I think overall its just not smart being heavily exposed to equities. 

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:34 | 538339 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

What's really interesting is that the last half hour stick saves are either missing or ineffective. Considering how light volume is, the saves shouldn't be ineffective. Thus for some reason they are deliberately being withheld.

Do the powers that be want a lower market? This smells just like August/Sept/Oct of 2008.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:24 | 538671 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I contend that the PTB want a Republican 'victory' in November, because it will create a perception amongst the sheeple that they have some control over the outcomes..."taking the country back" and stuff. It will occupy the mindset (along with NFL, Fall TV season) for a good 6 months - MSNBC, Fox, etc. 

Of course, Republicans, Democrats, same thing.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 19:35 | 538981 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Give the governor a Harumph!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:54 | 538747 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

They gotta chase anyone left into the next big T-bond sale.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:55 | 538750 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

CD- you are definately on to something here - Ben needs cover to blow the FED balance sheet to 4 trillion, full montie QE2- a SPX move to the July lows (or lower) should provide cover, with the concobinant take down in the PMs and other commodities will blow up the bond market to near 2% 10yr and a generationally attractive mortgage refi/home price save. Especially as Congress will not change the tax carpet bombing coming in 2011 - Politically I am agnostic cause dem-rep its all the same - the Bama agenda is set and will not be unwound until 2012 earliest.  That's why the Dems are not sweating - they just don't give a shite cause they think alla heavy lifting has been done.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 22:24 | 539184 99er
99er's picture

Do the powers that be want a lower market?

They may get it anyway as the USD remains a "safe haven." Troubles elsewhere continue to cause global investors to seek safety in the dollar and US Treasuries...for now.

Chart: DX

http://www.screencast.com/t/NTYxZjQ4NmM

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:48 | 538180 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

So I can have faith that my Puts will make me even more money than I could fathom?

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:03 | 538239 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

long calls on the Vix are also a great way to exploit down markets (technically put/call volatility, but you get the idea...) and they aren't as expensive as puts.

I'm sitting on some at the moment that expire in October.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:08 | 538252 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I do have some VIX calls, along with some inverse ETF calls.  Other than that I have been sitting on mostly Oct/Nov Puts on AAPL, F, GS, BA, and X.  Bought most of them 2 weeks ago (got lucky on my timing), and looking to possibly add more VIX calls with todays decline in the VIX. 

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:50 | 538386 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

personally, i find the gamma in OTM ES puts to more attractive than the VIX calls or the ETF puts...

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:51 | 538191 Rock N Roll Det...
Rock N Roll Detective's picture

I am on the right track to Weimar... there a Hindenburg next exit...

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:55 | 538197 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

My money is with Cramer on this "omen" since he is all knowing and would never deceive the public.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:56 | 538211 redpill
redpill's picture

The banner ads say I can make a lot of money with him, it's obviously a no-brainer.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:13 | 538261 whereismyorange
whereismyorange's picture

Please stop mentioning Cramer. The more you do, the more I must endure his presence in my browser window.

Maybe if we start talking about Justin Bieber we will get some of his advertisements instead!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:24 | 538302 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Maybe if we start talking about Justin Bieber we will get some of his advertisements instead!

Get back to work, Geithner!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 16:10 | 538449 Cincitucky
Cincitucky's picture

+

Explains most of Geithner's lack of attention to fix this decaying economy... he can't stop staring at that kids hair.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:59 | 538761 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

Maybe if we start talking about Justin Bieber we will get some of his advertisements instead!

Justin Bieber? Jeez. If that's the case how bout Megan Fox?

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 18:51 | 538905 MichaelG
MichaelG's picture

Megan Fox, you say? Hmm, Megan Fox... Interesting, this Megan Fox theory. (Am I spelling 'Megan Fox' correctly? It is 'Megan Fox', yes?)

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 20:38 | 539111 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Just don't bring up toe nail fungus or viagra.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 16:36 | 538529 ro.sniper
ro.sniper's picture

Firefox + Ad-Block Plus = No Cramer

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 05:06 | 539582 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

(Firefox + Ad-Block Plus) * x Readers = the end of free, advertiser subsidized access at ZH

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 20:21 | 539081 Moneygrove
Moneygrove's picture

Jenna jameson adds !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 20:50 | 539134 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Can we talk about Danni Ashe (or insert into babe of your choice here) instead?

 

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 22:04 | 539243 A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

Ad Block Plus... 

Say, "Who or what are you talking about?" to Cramer, Cougars, StateFarm and a whole lot of other GoogleAds slow down my surfin' experience...

('Course ya gotta dump the MS InternetExploder...)

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:16 | 538272 andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

He's standing on his fists like a dumb gorilla.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:53 | 538201 flacon
flacon's picture

What about gold/silver mining stocks? 

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:21 | 538290 sid farkas
sid farkas's picture

They will do extremely well from what I've gathered after reading a few articles/comments around here. PM's are unique in that they will go up regardless of what happens in the real economy.

We start from the axiom that only PM's are real money and that this fact has been obscured from the public because [insert pet conspiracy theory]. Eventually the public will realize this and they will clamor to get their hands on some, but there will be none available because you already bought it all. Then you have the last laugh.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 17:25 | 538675 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Mining stocks were no refuge in the 2008 liquidity crash...

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:55 | 538204 MrTrader
MrTrader's picture

What about the "Kaiser Wilhelm" omen ? :=)))

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 14:55 | 538205 George the baby...
George the baby crusher's picture

25%.....? I'm sticking to reading my tea leaves, they're coming in at 32,5%.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:02 | 538218 Marley
Marley's picture

Are the omens additive?  I.e., if there's a 25% chance of the market following the omen, then if you have 3 (4?) omens in a couple weeks, is that a probability of 75%?  Not that I have a dog in this fight, but I watch my dog.  She's been sitting for the last week looking at the gate all day.  So I closed my $235 401K account.  :)

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:14 | 538266 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

No.  After the omen has been confirmed, more events do not increase the odds of it's occurrence.  It was explained in an earlier thread.

Mon, 08/23/2010 - 15:21 | 538294 Marley
Marley's picture

Thanks, I'll shoot the dog.

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