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The Hindenburg Omen Has Arrived
Easily the most feared technical pattern in all of chartism (for the bullishly inclined) is the dreaded Hindenburg Omen. Those who know what it is, tend to have an atavistic reaction to its mere mention. Those who do not, can catch up on its implications courtesy of Wikipedia, but in a nutshell: "The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6th 1937, during which the German zeppelin was destroyed in a sudden conflagration." Granted, the Hindenburg Omen is not a guarantee of a crash, and the five criteria that must be met for a Hindenburg trigger typically need to reoccur within 36 days for reconfirmation. Yet the statistics are startling: "Looking back at historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and
usually takes place within the next forty-days." The last Hindenburg Omen occurred during the lows of 2009. Today, we just had another (unconfirmed) Hindenburg Omen. It is time to batten down the hatches - something big is coming.
As a reminder, the 5 criteria of the Omen are as follows:
- That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
- That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69
(68.772 is 2.2% of 3126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum.
This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues. - That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
- That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
- That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week
Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new
52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.
Today, all five conditions were satisfied. June 2008 was another such reconfirmed event, and as Barron's pointed out then, "there's a 25% probability of a full-blown stock-market crash in the next 120 days. Caveat emptor." Boy was the emptor caveating within 120 days (especially if said emptor was named Dick Fuld). Which brings us to the present: should the Omen be reconfirmed within 36 days, all bets are off.
h/t Teddy KGB
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Run, run for your lives
Gotta keep this low profile otherwise the ppt will work this out and shorts will be miserably squeezed.
There's that MS' full house indicator too, anyone keeping an eye on that?.
Sorry gang, but when the Fed and its off-shore proxies are buying half of all the trasheries to keep the interest rates down, well what can you trust and trade in anymore? Between HFT and all the unbelieveable employment numbers, there isn't even a market worth charting.
What is the alpha and omega?
the best part is with 0% interest rates...the discount rate you discount stocks back at when using valuation calculations...totally ups the worth of equities. and yet people keep acting like we are overvalued. not even close
BONDS are overvalued...big time. when that bubble burst, it will flock to equities and money markets
The bondbubble will burst when inflation kicks in.
Do you realise how pathetic your argument is?
On one hand you want to make valuation based on a 0% discount rate (as if this one reflects future expectations), on the other you say that the bond bubble will burst (ie interest rates will skyrocket ie current discount rate is in no way representative of future expectations).
So which one is it?
I believe if you take that argument to Tokyo, you will be disemboweled by a sharp sashimi knife, then have rice wine vinegar and murin poured over where your manliness used to be.
Nice.
Amazingly my 90 day CDs matured today...time to pull the cash
So the water does stop spinning. I was getting sea sick. Too much doo doo in this toilet.
Shit hitting the fan soon?
77% of the time it works everytime
BOOHYAH!
Well, I think the economy is turning, so I can't imagine that's good for stocks...
If the market crashes, what are some good value buys? Or do you just stand back and caress your gold bars?
Caress our gold bars.
I guess you can buy FNM at .24. Who knows, it may even be worth half a dollar in your lifetime.
I'm liking it at .10, I'm loving it at .05.
Good trading buys are hard liquor and cartons of cigarettes before the crash. After, get your gold buried and ammunition handy.
Oil. From the 1st Iraq war to now the commodity price averages +/-8.0% /Year. Price elasticity is fantastic (excluding Leo's looming solar invasion :-) ) and it's a hedge against USD inflation.
Sounds like the bots are about go to war with each other...
Carbon based lifeforms may suffer some collateral damage.
It's going to be a fun Friday the 13th! Hope you all got your money out of this market :-)
What DOW number would constitute a "crash"? 9000? 7000? 5000? 3000?
A % here. 2.00% there. rally. another few %,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VgaqOXUCJA
If you look at historical data you get the following :
probability of decline after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen
CRASH >15% decline: probability 24%
10-15% dec. : prob. 12%
5-10% dec. : prob. 40%
<5% dec. : prob. 24%
So far, all CRASHES happened between 1 month and 4 months from the confirmed signal.
To conclude, if the signal is confirmed, there is one chance out of four that the DOW will go lower than 8700 within the next four months. That's of course assuming the Fed doesn't pump another trillion before then...
Thanks for the data chrisina.
Thanks for the reminder. I couldnt remember if the McMallian Oscillator had to be negative the same day or the following day. Now it all falls into place...Elementary
Hey, hey, hey, hey..
All this baby needs is a little inflation.
I'm long on hot air from the criminals in charge. Long and strong, baby!
Oh, and JB, you'd better ink the deal w/ JPM to pay you in Spam in 2011.
Wonderful Spam.
Ask ORI he's got plenty of it
Thomas Jefferson in response to Shays's Rebellion, led by farming families in Western MA (and, no, most of them were not poor, and yes, most of them were veterans)
"God forbid we should ever be twenty years without such a rebellion."
http://bit.ly/hissthenpop
oh the humanity....
Rant on
Christ all F-ing mighty. Tyler Durden, would you please make a pass-worded paid site (with the exact same content), so the cover charge will keep the penny stinkers out?
It's offensive to read this tripe.
Some folks might enjoy reading the mindless chatter that all free financial blogs become after 3-6 months, but some of us actually have a horse in this race.
& if you hoi polli have made such poor life decisions that $50/year (or whatever to read sentient comments) matters a fig to you, then I don't give a damn about (or wish to read) your opinions.
Rant off
RobotTrader - I'll comp your membership
A better way would be to allow each individual reader to simply block via blacklist the comments of those they don't care to read, or have a whitelist for those they respect. Also, it would be nice to have an option to seeing or block the threads that come after comments by blacklisted commenters.
This way, there is little need for moderation, or even junks. Individuals can simply block the crap from "idiots" they don't like.
This does seem a bit like entrail-reading - and I'm almost afraid to ask: is there a stock trading program that basis itself on that?
This is no time for cheap substitutes. Find the best Haitian fortune teller in town & hustle right over there with 20 bucks & a live chicken. (she will probably want the chicken as part of the fee)
That sucking sound you heard the last two days as money fled in fear is on its way back with a roar in Australia, and Asia. US Futures are tonight atwtter with anticipation of the morrows event. Like the rush of water back into Alaska Bay after the earthquake it is truly going to lift all boats with great vengance.
I hope you are all enjoying this great new "risk on/risk off" paradigm. It is full speed ahead but the next day, then where are the freakin' brakes man?? Zero market memory, zero correlation between rational economic models and the markets, total media dissinformation and a nightly erased memory of the concerns of the prior few hours... It takes a truly shocking statement to make people say,"hey, this is looking pretty frigtening." But they watch masterchef, Idol, The Shore to scrub those awful memories. If Goldman reveals tomorrow that Lloyd boy did a deal with the Martians for a reverse repo on the souls likely to have at least an x chromosome, and the people of earth (Goldmen elites exempted of course)would all be off to the martian red beet fields and Blankbeen would be hailed as a hero who saved us from Global warming, peak oil, the November elections, Afghaanistan and Obama on Masterchef.
An experinced Angel and true emmissary of the lord will have managed to do what God with some destructive reluctance lacking had clearly failed to achive with the flood. The price was right, the deal irressistable and the burden of payment fell clearly outside of Goldmna's writ. Perfection itself.
The only thing this summer has taught me is that the equity market is a huge ponzi scheme with snake oil salesmen on one side (media/cramer/cnbc), puppetmasters (GS/HFT etc.) and stupid retail investors doubling up in every dip (yes that's right, in the end you'll have lost all your savings Joe Sixpack). Obviously I should've known this before. But now, I also know that this is elementary knowledge in the path to trading success, i.e. follow the dumbasses up the inflated equity markets a majority of the time, then hit the killswitch after the equity markets have been hit in the head for two-three months with bad news and finally wakes up. "Geee, shucks, CNBC told me that the markets go up over time" - Well Joe, not in your lifetime... "Bu-bu-but Warren says to buy them diiiips" - You are clearly not Warren, you are sitting on your front lawn drinking bud and watching monday night football, your mortgage is underwater, and you've bought ipads with you're tenth and only working credit card, you don't have control over companies you invest in. "Bu-bu-but, Bennie says the economy is goin' great, like one of 'em steam trains"... The steam train is derailing Joe, Bennie derailed it while snorting coke from Timmy's asshole.
Sad times for the widows & orphans. Even in good times they're little more than feeder fish. Now the MSM are the market's shills. Wonder what their cut is?
Strong buy. Negativity has reached an all time high according to a dozen sentiment Newsletters out there. Cash holdings at all time highs with mutual fund managers in Europe and Asia. Everybody sitting on cash is not only losing money, but has negative performance yields so far this year.
Yeah, and let me guess, "there's ton of cash on the sidelines, Cerberus is gonna be a buyer"... Last part was from a Subprime investor. You don't understand what ZH is do you? ZH is not some kind of forum rearing its head everytime there's a downturn. We believe this i the end of the system, your buy-the-dips system.
Some education for some "pipl" on this site who believe stock markets are the only "investment opportunties" out there :
clem.mscd.edu/~mayest/FIN3600/Files/FIN3600_3.ppt
Lately, I bought some land in Argentina. Yeah, "pipl", pretty cheap there...and the steaks: mjam, mjam...
good advice, but most people here would be too afraid to go to argentina.
they are all digging shelters and buying guns and canned food waiting for the zombie hordes to attack them
I mean, they are paranoid in their own country, just imagine them in a foreign country...
does transfering 5k to Bullionvault and loading up (more) yesterday count?
I have been explaining this mess for more than TWO years: on Smartmoney, on Marketwatch, on other web-sites, and recently here on Zerohedge. (and on numerous christianic russia- and US-based web-sites). I have been explaining all aspects of this court "God vs. USA": the reasons, the cause of the mess, and the future punishment. The only thing I have heard was a loud laugh. Now, two years later, nobody is laughing in USA.
Two years was more than enough to listen, to understand, to admit, to stop and reject oil idolatry, computer idolatry, and to start the real recovery, to start the liberation from the modern sins.
Be informed that the modern crisis was only the warning from the Heaven.
Personally, I have no more arrows for US, and I will not be surprized, if God Creator will soon start to punish the USA in a REAL MANNER.
This could be the last warning. I know He reads this web-site because He and His Saints adore the truth and hate the lie.
Can you tell (or ask) anything about the body of crime of the United States of America - before Him?
Take your Jewish mythology to some other place
Any other suggestions ?
Pastor David Wilkerson (Times Square Church, NYC) wrote a book in '99 or '00 talking about how there was a coming "financial holocaust" and that it was NOT a prophecy, just something God had put into his heart in a general sense. I have also heard from the "other end" of the Christian spectrum among hardcore Roman Catholics that they are expecting a "great chastisment" in the USA.
My point is that it is not just Austrians or Monetarists or whoever who are expecting a crisis. Many religious people who are not trained in economics are also preparing and pulling their money from the market.
Whether you are objectivist, diest, catholic, protestant, mormon, muslim, whatever; almost everyone who takes their philosophy seriously is against theft via central bank fiat (except for the "will to power" amoral freaks who run the system).
Did Pastor David Wilkerson predict a drought in the Holy Land?
I don't know, the book was about the American economy.
It was *a personal opinion* of Pastor on US economy. There is no magic in that the honest people FEEL that something wrong with USA long ago.
The problem is that they only express *opinions*, not exact list of sins. Instead, in reality this is a court versus God Creator and it is coming to an end. Then there will be pure PUNISHMENT.
Any other suggestions or questions? Please.
The Truth About Religion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjGkRFFBd0A
This reminds me of the Aztecs, who slaughtered thousands of people per year in the hope that their god would refrain from punishing them by withholding the sun from them. Once they started, they couldn't stop, or else the sun would stop rising.
Blaming natural and man-made disasters on God seems like blasphemy. God doesn't smite people anymore, or didn't you get the memo (remember when God condemned the "friends" of Job who claimed what you seem to claim, that God punishes misdeeds, and that terrible events are thus evidence of sin)? Your god is an evil one, if he collectively punishes all, including innocent children, for the misdeeds of a few, or even the majority. If you believe in the Christian God, then you are indeed woefully misinformed, and your blasphemies will not sit lightly upon you in Hell.
Hmm, religion. We europeans haven't been to keen on that lately, is that why we are blowing ourselves up? No wonder any sort of monetary lending was forbidden for so long, and still is in some parts of the middle east...
But I must also confess, all the negative technical indicators in the press is not good for our tanking market, that is, if they know it, it probably won't happen - tightening my stops.
"Hmm, religion. We europeans haven't been to keen on that lately, is that why we are blowing ourselves up? No wonder any sort of monetary lending was forbidden for so long, and still is in some parts of the middle east..."
I don't think the Middle East has the market cornered on ethics, morality, virtue, religion or anything else.
When you have Kings living in the lap of luxury as their people live in grinding poverty (for century's) it say's alot for their value system...religious or otherwise.
Good idea on the stop tightening...we have self appointed kings in the west as well ;-)
Ty... Ackording to Alphieville, the sucker seems to have been reported once in July? Is this correct?
Book of Amos 3.7:
"For the Lord God does nothing without revealing his secret to his servants the prophets."
Dear americans (traders), if You flag as "junk" pure quotes from the Bible, I suggest that words "In God we trust" on a back of dollar is a lie too.
Yes, because the Bible established a LIMIT for taxes at 10%. That 10% tax was devoted to God in early days of Bible. If The Creator of the whole world demands only 10%, then how in Universe the government of USA (or any modern capitalistic country) may demand 30%+ VAT+ else?! (Paganistic Rome broke that limit too, having 200+ direct and indirect taxes)
Yes, because the Rome paganistic empire coined it's money .... in Judea, and the person, responsible for the money coinage in Rome was.... Pointius Pilate. The money were coined in Akko (a city in modern Israel). The jews coined all the money of Rome paganistic empire, showing animals and faces of an Emperor on them (that was prohibited by the Bible that time). The quality of money was poor and "semi-fake money" flooded all the Rome Empire, which in turn forced Pontius Pilate to resign later.
That is why Son of the Chief Lawyer said that (He was an advocate on that court "God vs. Jews", not a prosecutor).
Do You see an analogy with the modern USA, (somewhere called New Holy Land) printing dollars for the whole world? (by a group of US jews: Paul Warburg, Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Jews).
"Yes, because the Bible established a LIMIT for taxes at 10%. That 10% tax was devoted to God in early days of Bible. If The Creator of the whole world demands only 10%, then how in Universe the government of USA (or any modern capitalistic country) may demand 30%+ VAT+ else?! (Paganistic Rome broke that limit too, having 200+ direct and indirect taxes)"
Fractional reserve currency systems are supposed to operate at 10 to 1 leverage or work at 10 percent as well. In reality they go 40 to 100:1 every day. The bible doesn't establish a limit to taxes. It shows that god like anyone else will take whatever he can get. Cause he's a pimp.
That's why he hates Cain because cain was a farmer and didn't abuse animals being a shepard and god hates that because he's an animal abusing shepard just like Able. Able was put in "charge" of cain and forced to trade his farmed goods for Able's slaughtered stupid sheep. Just like the church makes "special" coins that you have to trade invading roman army coins for to get. Only the churh kept them in short supply and manipulated the swap spread so that they taxed the FUCK out of everyone and got rich off their ass way beyond 10 percent.
Which is why Cain's words were so masterful after he killed that fucking little shit Able. "Am I my brother's keeper?" He was flaunting in god's face that he wasn't able's shepherd or manager and he wasn't "responsible" for him.
You see in the old testament god was a murdering, thugging, violent, side taking, gang banger and it was starting to get too hot in the kitchen. So he sent down jesus to teach a bunch of bullshit to keep it going. That bullshit being forgiveness. Because that way those in authority could continue to act without one shred of forgiveness for debt or anything else and keep the sheep forgiving as long as possible. With a big giant promise of it's for a good purpose or a higher cause. So join the army and kill innoncent citizens for a higher cause. Join the police and hand out huge tickets for speeding. Join the Law profession and let a couple hundred people get "justice" from stupid huge settlements and then spend 90 percent of your time enforcing injustice. Because it works off math and it works off ratios. god's abusive as fuck but only to 10 percent of the people at a time. He's waring as fuck but only in small pockets of the world. He allows huge companies to cheat the fuck out of people but only a few of their customers so that the majority can bear witness to how "fair" they are. This is why god loves percentages and fractions because it's the key to ruling the world. There's not a damn thing that's holy about it. It's just a strategy. If you're int he minority part of the strategy it must be "your" fault. So you have to "work" on it. It's the mechanics of a sanctimonious asshole god. It's his "mysterious" justice which isn't mysterious at all nor does it contain any justice.
Then Jesus said to them, "Give to Caesar what is Caesar's and to God what is God's." And they were amazed at him. -Mark 12:17
That answer was meant to satisfy the non-believers and show the truth to the believers. A non-believer/Roman looks at that and says, "OK Jesus, I guess you aren't a tax protestor, carry on" and a believer/jew/christian knows that the Old Testament clearly says that "all gold and silver is the Lord's" and that "the earth is the Lord's, and the fullness thereof". That is why the pharisees were amazed. He was saying to give God everything (or 10%, whichever way you interpret) and nothing to Ceasar, but said it in a way that would not get him thrown in jail by the Romans before his work was done.
Yes, exactly. He was/is a go-o-o-d advocate/lawyer.
Additionally, as He fully understands the money creation process as governmental debt-returnable in the future, He also knew that Rome's money was circulated in Judea only due to fear of Emperor. If all Rome money was rejected by jews and returned back to paganistic Emperor (a little bit fantastic), then jews' own money and jews' state will probably survive. But the jews did not do that.
Futures were up...Dow + 60...now negative.
Swim at your own risk, thar be sharks in deez here waters me matey's...arrr...LOL.
Let's review what happened in 2008 after the Hindenburg Omen:
In June 2008, SPY was just breaking below 140 again. It was a long wait till October 2008, but after the waterfall drop was over, first bottom was at 88.50, and final low for that move was at 77.7, almost 50% down.
What's up with dog food futures? They've gone parabolic.........
Its probably been said above, but from the link - "under normal conditions"
But we haven't had that spirit here since 1969. - it is after all----------- Hoe-tel Califiornication
And I should say that 'time' can be long or short but it is ticking away, in the end this suckers going to feed on itself. Then as the fly girls say you can assume the crash position and kiss your ass goodnight.
Remain calm, nothing to see here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSjK2Oqrgic
While you talk to "me, DrLamer" here, nothing wrong could happen. I told You: God Creator READS this web-site. Your problems will start with your silence.
Prechter says it looks like 1987, we have the hindenburg, death cross and dow theory sell signal (not sure about that one)... It feels like too much for anything to happen...
i recall the 87 crash, it seemed as though everyone knew it was coming, Joe Granville and Elaine Garzarelli, predicted the event. Granville later claimed his OBV, On Balance Volume indicator was the secret to his success. Both of them became footnotes to market history.
the blame is sometimes laid on the put sellers, who were selling large blocks of index puts far out of the money, and got caught. About day three Geo H W Bush walked down to the NYSE with a sack of money, and a promise from the Presidents Working Group on the Financial Markets, and history was made, (or destroyed).
if this is tragic historical events played out the second time as farce, 1987 probably already happened, the famous flash crash. A one day event, it took only a year to restore most of the stocks to their precrash levels and we were off to the races.
the new (global) transports really make a sham of Dow Theory, Prechter often says it only take one bid and one ask to take a market to zero. of course it works that way on the upside as well. if Bernanke could declare by fiat that the Dow Jones Industrials were 36000, he could solve all our problems, but he will have to work at it a little bit.
Chuck at Rebel Traders provides more info about the "Omen" on his video from last night:
http://blog.rebeltraders.net/market-update-videos/
This post went over like a Led Zeppelin.
And what is marketwatch's headline this morning,
"Germany's a GDP Dynamo"
Huh, a wopping 2.2%. Must be all those zeppelins their building again.
East or West? 2.2% of nothing is nothing. I see nothing Nooootghing Colonel Hogan ;)
Pakistan floods, Russian fires are related:
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspa...
My investment strategy can be summed up simply: Hookers & Beer! BTW, these damn math equations that we have to solve to post are just stressing me out. My abacus is working overtime! :)
*yawn*
"Something" usually "happens" near the end of the fiscal year (Sept 30, at least it's the FY for the US Govt). One bankster class does something to another, or banksters offload huge numbers of shares in this-that-or-the-other, withdraw massive amounts of liquidity (2008), SOMETHING. The end result is volatility that's noticeable to the average Joe or Josephine.
I'm just an average Josephine. 20+ years ago my stepfather, an average Joe, typically sold his stock in August and bought them all back in October. The tactic worked for him more often than not.
Gonna git me some more triple bears.
*lulz*
Is that the QEII docked underneath that low flying dirigible?
I just spoke to Summers, he says a Hindenburg omen on a Friday the 13th can only mean one thing: the dow will finish up today.
sounds like curve fitting to me.
If there is 25% chance of a "crash" why not buy some Nov/Dec VIX calls? A few hundred bucks could explode in value if you saw a similar jump in the VIX that we saw in 2008....
...or not. Goodness, man, you sound like a fella in Reno deciding whether to bet red or black. Get a grip.
Saddly he's still not on the ball about the house winning, because the math favors the table and not the player.
Time to, 'Cross the Streams!' Any dogs and cats living together sightings?
The Hindenburg burned on May 6th, 1937 ... May 6th, 2010 was the day of the Flash Crash...
[Cue Twilight Zone theme music.]
IF any of you want to play around with it, the HO, it's part of Eclispe Trader as a plug in. It's like a trade desk most of the traders here actually use, except it's useful and free. First of all, the HO signal was generated around five months ago. So the fact someone managed to use a calculator in the last week stuns me.
The fact is the play is all stick and move, watch the five minute charts in comparison to the VIX. If you are "investing", the door is your right, please leave. This includes gold/silver/metal long investors. When it does happen, with a if statement built in because we see how the engine is being run right now. The previous crashes destroyed the gold price just as fast as the dollar/Euro/yen/RMB/whatever.
I suggest if any want to go long on something, go build a business and never look back at the "free market".
Now get a deck chair, sit with me and we'll watch it burn. After the fire is dead, we have a list of people that don't deserve a future so the removal of they and theirs is important to the human race. We round them up and try not to waste bullets. Now that's a proper long term investment.
...
So the Hindenburg Omen happened on Friday the 13th?
Okay, either they cancel out... or this is the big one!
That is, if you believe in such things. :-)
Or it happens.
:-o
If only Obama would give a speech to prevent this.
The guy that called the crash in 2008 and has been spot on is calling this legitamate. I listen to his stuff, and am now out of debt from being in his newsletter. He has some great ideas for the coming economic doldrums coming. Time to wake up people. Check out his latest youtube vid
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gn6kS4l2yFM
From said Wiki article: "One off Hindenburg Omen signals are always considered unconfirmed as the indicator has a high false alarm rate. A train of 3 to 5 coupled Hindenburg Omens are preferred by analysts wherever possible."
Am I the only one that has seen the extreme irony of the date of the crash of the Hindenberg? Exactly 73 years later on that date, we experienced "The Flash Crash!"
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What stinks is that even against easy comparisons and REDUCED expectations, we have only seen modest upside surprises.
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