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The Hindenburg Omen Has Arrived

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Easily the most feared technical pattern in all of chartism (for the bullishly inclined) is the dreaded Hindenburg Omen. Those who know what it is, tend to have an atavistic reaction to its mere mention. Those who do not, can catch up on its implications courtesy of Wikipedia, but in a nutshell: "The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6th 1937, during which the German zeppelin was destroyed in a sudden conflagration." Granted, the Hindenburg Omen is not a guarantee of a crash, and the five criteria that must be met for a Hindenburg trigger typically need to reoccur within 36 days for reconfirmation. Yet the statistics are startling: "Looking back at historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and
usually takes place within the next forty-days." The last Hindenburg Omen occurred during the lows of 2009. Today, we just had another (unconfirmed) Hindenburg Omen. It is time to batten down the hatches - something big is coming.

As a reminder, the 5 criteria of the Omen are as follows:

  1. That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
  2. That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69
    (68.772 is 2.2% of 3126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum.
    This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.
  3. That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
  4. That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
  5. That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week
    Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new
    52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.

Today, all five conditions were satisfied. June 2008 was another such reconfirmed event, and as Barron's pointed out then, "there's a 25% probability of a full-blown stock-market crash in the next 120 days. Caveat emptor." Boy was the emptor caveating within 120 days (especially if said emptor was named Dick Fuld). Which brings us to the present: should the Omen be reconfirmed within 36 days, all bets are off.

h/t Teddy KGB

 

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Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:42 | 519172 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

"Do not panic. Please form single file lines and proceed in an orderly manner to the nearest -- aaaaaaaaaugh!"

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:59 | 519213 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

"Remain Calm , ALL IS WELL" from the movie "animal farm"

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:08 | 519237 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture
Animal House - All Is Well!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 09:12 | 519613 The Rock
The Rock's picture

The H.O. has arrived bitchez!

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 02:59 | 571182 qrs521
qrs521's picture

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Fri, 08/13/2010 - 10:18 | 519748 FoodTiger
FoodTiger's picture

Naked Gun - Nothing to see here

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSjK2Oqrgic

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 10:56 | 519850 iamrage
iamrage's picture

"Look at them.  Calm as Hindu cows.."

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:39 | 519324 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Pass me another bull-frog...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVE60zwXx1k

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 04:28 | 519426 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

If chimps raping frogs becomes a necessary component of this Omen you are going to get blamed for it.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 11:59 | 520015 Tarheel
Tarheel's picture

Dont worry, Uncle Tom and Grampa Bernanke will use the PPT to hold up the market....right...

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 13:27 | 1208257 william.smith61
william.smith61's picture

One of the main open questions on QE2, is how large the Fed's next monetization episode will be. This year's most prescient economist, Jan Hatzius, has predicted that the minimum floor of Bernanke's next intervention will be around $1 trillion, which of course means that he likely expects a materially greater final outcome from a Fed that is known for "forceful" AC Condenser

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 11:30 | 1421187 cole
cole's picture

I do not believe in predictions. The only thing that can help is the technical analysis or chart in that report on a graph the tensions between buyers and sellers and the trading volume. But this analysis can only be taken as an aid to other economic studies and results.

 

Servicio tecnico - World photos - Directorio empresas

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:05 | 519302 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

Yo, Tyler, we algo's don't give a damn bout no stinkin blimps...

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:45 | 519329 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

oh yeah..am gonna get more PCLN, NFLX, AMZN, GOOG as Robo suggested...

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 02:02 | 519383 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

If everyone knows/believes the bear argument, and few people believe the bull argument, will the market most likely go up or down?  Does the market follow popular consensus or does it move against it?

It's very funny to see so many of you believe in future inflation, yet remained mystified as to why the market remains buoyant. 

 

 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 02:16 | 519391 Young
Young's picture

If no one was short a day ago (ackording to the stats), people have been buying calls, the baby boomers won't do another buy the dip gamble - would you be short or long? That said, bears have gotten a lot of exposure in media - but as long as Jimbo Cramer says buy, i'm confident we can short.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 07:04 | 519493 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Belief in inflation? You mean, ZH believes the Fed will be successful in engineering the reflation of assets in an orderly manner by means of its policies?

Nope. No one agrees with that.  Deflation is where we are headed (already there), and hyperinflation, not inflation, could be the consequence.  Given the marked redcution of final demand, we do not understand the "buoyant market," or the sell-side propaganda that has accompanied it. 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 08:07 | 519533 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

We're not as smart as you are.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 11:38 | 519959 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Don't fault yourself.  Jesus loves everyone equally - except homosexuals. 

Sun, 08/15/2010 - 19:27 | 523003 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

WORD

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 10:31 | 519783 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What 'market'? You mean that computer that throws out fake algo bids all day? Whatever, moron.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 01:06 | 519354 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

"DO NOT PANIC...we are trained professionals.  We are going to go AROUND the leaf...!" - "A Bug's Life"

"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 03:37 | 519408 russki standart
russki standart's picture

I recommend you panic.....

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 03:44 | 519409 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Robert McHugh

offers interesting commentary and a rather good explanation.

 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 05:12 | 519448 thermroc
thermroc's picture

Don't panic! Don't panic!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR6wok7g7do

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 05:14 | 519449 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Computers don't panic.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 09:06 | 519603 Datafox
Datafox's picture

I forget where or exactly when but during the great depression there was this saying:

"The most frightening words are; We're from the government and we're here to help."

Sat, 07/02/2011 - 18:44 | 1421666 cole
cole's picture

Now the fear is the rating agencies or AAA rating when they say next bankruptcy danger

coches usados - codigos postales - Hoteles

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 09:08 | 519604 Datafox
Datafox's picture

I forget where or exactly when but during the great depression there was this saying:

"The most frightening words are; We're from the government and we're here to help."

(sorry for the repost.  It was the math question that threw me.  Needed 2 characters instead of 3.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:47 | 519183 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

At-a-vis-tic

"relating to ideas from distant past. relating back to feelings or ideas that people had in the distant past"

 

thank you.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:49 | 519189 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I sent my signal today, Village!  Did you?  I have not seen here at ZH anyone else fessing up to stripping $500 from the ATMs today.

Tomorrow I sentence myself to (mostly) staying in the gold threads...

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:53 | 519197 VWbug
VWbug's picture

I took out $500 today, but i do that quite often, I don't really get it

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 07:07 | 519488 zhandax
zhandax's picture

I get it, I am just not sure my bank will considering I have have drained a grand out of the ATM a couple of times in the last twelve months.  Guess it will depend on how much company I had.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:03 | 519222 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

Four days ago I put cash in the 2X bear Profund. Today I pulled it out, and put it in the SHort Gold Stocks fund. 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:15 | 519226 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Loud and clear, DoChen.  I would really like to know what kind of numbers were inspired?  Maybe ZH can plug in some sort of poll taking computer thingy - that would really get things going, imho.

 

I will try and catch up with you tomorrow in the gold room. I asked for a call on Au last week as I want to start building a position in the phys.  the advice I got essentially suggested 1050 to start and 1000 to add.  I am seriously interested because I value this persons opinion. 

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:17 | 519250 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Village, yes, that would be very interesting to have ZH either do a poll or use their computers to advise if this went viral.  A few people I know said they would.  Several people here at ZH said they would, and a couple from FOFOA's site said they would as well.  I will go check fofoa after I finish up here.

...

Gold, well, about four or five threads down from this one there is a nice & rancorous back and forth between JB and we gold guys.

My take on gold, and has been for many years, is that the price per oz does not really matter much to me.  If I have some money I buy the gold.  Sometimes I will delay a purchase for whatever reason.  But I never sell.  I hope to GIVE IT AWAY.  The Power of Giving!

I am 1/2 in FOFOA's camp (ultimate wealth preserver) and 1/2 in the gold as insurance vs. bankster and .gov malfeasance wrecking the world economy.  I buy gold because I believe both camps have merit.

...

I let myself be conned into going to ORI's blog.  YOU, Village, got a nice little write up!  If you want to give yourself a pat on the back, it's worth a look.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:44 | 519264 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Thank you for the insight, DoChen.  I tend to agree with the idea of buying whenever the mood is right, if that's what I hearing you say.  My problem is that I tend to get a little compulsive when I start on a new project - I like to jump right in. If all that is portended is somewhere around the corner, i would like to build a pretty sizable position. It would be nice to buy on the way down before it starts to really head the other way. Basically, I would like to make a perfect trade.

 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:01 | 519300 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I am a terrible trader VI.  Long term I usually get things right.  The perfect trade, let me know how that works out...

Actually, I have been buying gold in small increments (1 - 3 oz at a time, typically, although I did buy 10 oz of platinum one time from MONEX because it is harder to find, and I really like platinum too) from coin shops since the 1980s.  Last time I paid spot + $70.  I did buy heavier starting about 2002, so my average cost basis is not so good (average paid price I would guess about $1000 / oz).  Yes, I bought some near the peak as well (+/- $1220), but, again, I do not worry much about the price, I look at the price but it does not my behavior...

A cousin just started buying gold, he came into an inheritance, and started doing things like it looks like you want to.  He pretty quickly got up to 48 oz and has more silver than me and everyone else I know put together!

If you have more than enough FRNs or in the bank to carry you through for awhile, then you may as well jump in and buy.  In that below thread "Today's Winner: Gold" you will see people saying gold will do this or that.

I like FOFOA's response: "It's all about the ounces!"  How many oz you have is what's important.  And if you happen to be a dad (like I am), it will become clear to you REAL QUICK what comfort gold can give.

Disclosure: about 6% of my holdings are in gold, en route to 7%.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:12 | 519309 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

As I posted elsewhere, DCRB, I actually closed a Regions Bank account and opened one at a local bank.  Already have an account at an S&L.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 01:43 | 519369 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

"And if you happen to be a dad (like I am), it will become clear to you REAL QUICK what comfort gold can give."

I am a father.  And now that I am blessed with someone other than me to look after I am especially greedy...for the protection of my child.  If that protection turns out to be from gold,  I will be happy.  I want my child to always know that his father (and mother) are there to keep him safe.  I want him to feel the warmth that safety brings, and I want him to be proud of the fact that his parents were strong enough to provide.  And I want him to pass it on.

Every parents desire, no doubt.

 

One silver lining in this shit storm - he will probably be a better listener, and be more well behaved.

 

*stepping down from soap box*

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 01:52 | 519378 merehuman
merehuman's picture

I keep 5.00 in a bank. Been like this for the last year.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 02:13 | 519387 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

me too ...dnt know when that Shitty bank is gonna blow up......its got a D- rating in weiss research lists of banks.....

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 04:30 | 519428 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Haha. I have 11 dollars in the bank.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 09:37 | 519650 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

What a strange coincidence because you owe me exactly $11. I'll waive the interest and penalty if you pay within 24 hours. I take PayPal. :>)

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 11:27 | 519925 merehuman
merehuman's picture

congratulations. Fatherhood brings a change in state of conciousness for sure. Something the childless will not experience. It brings a sense of strenght and maturity to a new perspective.

Good on you VI.     Beware the baby food. Much is tainted. Google 'early breast development due to infant formula.'

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 03:54 | 519416 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

For more comfort, teach those kiddies how to shoot, Daddy-O.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 09:16 | 519617 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

just a few more years...looking forward to it.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:19 | 519253 andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

I feel bad for not withdrawing any cash today :-(

Although I didn't think it would affect banks here in Canadia, eh...

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:33 | 519267 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

No worries, it's the thought that counts.  And there's always next time.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 01:00 | 519345 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@DoChen

I mentioned it in a thread this morning and then went out and did it.  Chase Bank has my ATM limit set such that I could not complete the $500 withdrawal from the ATM.  Had to go inside.  Whatever it takes....

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 05:18 | 519451 bonddude
bonddude's picture

Right in line behind Mohammed El Erian's wife.

Sorry Black Swan. You can't predict just WHEN a

Black Swan will happen.

 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 01:22 | 519364 Rover
Rover's picture

had to wait til a couple hours ago, but got it done.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 04:33 | 519430 bobm2626
bobm2626's picture

DoChen, I just pulled my $400 out (couldnt get 500), Also I had to do it in Lahaina, Maui as Im on vacation... Swimming with Dolphins in the am off of Lanai!

Its all good!

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 08:55 | 519592 Mr. Majestic
Mr. Majestic's picture

Got your back-took $8000 out yesterday

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 11:32 | 519941 merehuman
merehuman's picture

to all of you who participated and removed money , THANK YOU!!

It gets old , being in trouble and chatting about it while the water rises to our necks. Action is needed and past actions of calls, letters and mild protests will not resolve our dilemma.

Its a good beginning .

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 09:28 | 519637 ATTILA THE WIMP
Fri, 08/13/2010 - 10:15 | 519740 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I didn't take out $500 yesterday, but I did take out $1900 today.  Intrest and penalties accrued.

I used part of it to buy silver, and will be paying some of my bills with cash this month.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 10:45 | 519821 Dantzler
Dantzler's picture

I only took out $40 yesterday, but I bank with a local credit union now that we took our money out of TARP banks a while back.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:46 | 519185 win
win's picture

At some point one needs not complex mathematical algos in order to read the tea leaves.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:46 | 519186 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Kind of like the permanent backwardation in gold though. 

If one is looking at "highly" manipulated markets/indices, does this still hold true?

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:53 | 519199 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Here's the quote from the wikipedia article:

Central bank intervention in the stock market can interfere with the triggering mechanism of the Omen. It must be noted that the triggering conditions—with respect to central bank intervention—are quite difficult to manipulate. Most of the Omen's indicators are long term and of a broad market nature. Central banks intervening in the market to keep the Hindenburg Omen from triggering is unknown as there are related market triggers to indicate a downturn is coming—and this one is probably the hardest and costliest to rig.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:05 | 519301 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Thanks for the quote Faustian. Interesting. An un-manipulatable sign is a sign I'd take seriously!

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 01:44 | 519376 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

A junk? Someone has something against shocked monkeys.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:52 | 519195 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

Ain't buying it. I believe you can take most of the charts and theories and throw them out the window. With hft and cb manipulation and .gov intervention, this market makes no sense. Short of a major incident, I don't see this market doing much of anything but up and down daily for the next several months at least.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:08 | 519238 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

 "don't see this market doing much of anything but up and down daily for the next several months at least."

 

 

THEN can we crash it?!   (sarcasm off)

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:48 | 519334 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Nope. You better get 2012 puts..

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 01:16 | 519360 ThreeTrees
ThreeTrees's picture

I don't claim to be an incredible chartist or anything, in fact I'm quite positive the lines I draw are actually quite pedestrian, but TA gave me a heads up of this week's carry unwind over a week ago.  Currencies are fondled by central banks day in and day out and yet somehow stocks/carrytrades/indexes still bounce around between support and resistance with astounding reliability.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 04:46 | 519436 whacked
whacked's picture

 

Albertarocks rules!

 

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/84922-the-hindenb...

 

Mind you has a 'chance' .. need other signals ..

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 10:18 | 519747 augmister
augmister's picture

+1 ... If we don't Black Swan or Hindenberg, the tax man cometh next year and everybody with a brain will be out of the pool by the end of the year!

Sat, 08/14/2010 - 00:09 | 521298 CPL
CPL's picture

You actually have been paying taxes?  Why?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:54 | 519200 bull-market_3.0
bull-market_3.0's picture

Wikipedia says the unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen has a very high false alarm rate

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 08:44 | 519566 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Is that a double negative?  Meaning an unconfirmed HO would actually be a crash of the market?  Otherwise I would expect a unconfirmed sell signal to have a high false alarm rate.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 13:19 | 520211 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Wikipedia - as reliable as the Titanic and General Custer.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:53 | 519202 VWbug
VWbug's picture

ohhh  scary.

good thing i am short up the ying yang.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:54 | 519203 mee-mee-mee
mee-mee-mee's picture

RUN FOR THE EXISTS, i've seen how that hindenburg went down.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:01 | 519220 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

"Oh God, the humanity."

Oh, and get my broker now and short Volkszeppelin, stat!

 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 04:37 | 519429 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

They actually altered the voice on that recording to make it sound more dramatic. The normal recording sounds like a robot.

Oh scratch that. I just listened to it on youtube. It's not that different. Just speeded up a bit.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:56 | 519209 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Time to release the Hordes....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-pMiyIWSg0

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:00 | 519218 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

I understand the Hindenburg Omen has correctly identified 10 of the last 3 major market crashes.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:07 | 519306 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Exactly TGU. Exactly.

And funny! :-)

Like someone else said above, false alarm rate is very high.

ORI

PS :Please don't get "conned" into visiting my blog anyone!

Never the idea.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:03 | 519223 Psquared
Psquared's picture

That Wikipedia article also says that it almost happened yesterday (11th) as well. Will be interesting to see if we get a confirmation. Are we near the end of a super-cycle? Are we staring down the barrel of a Kondratiev Winter?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:10 | 519241 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

winters are nice.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:10 | 519243 realtick
realtick's picture

Since we're no longer in the 20th century can we update the name of the signal to something more current?

My suggestion: the Obama Omen.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:15 | 519246 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

How did those buys work out for you on Monday sweetheart?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:30 | 519261 realtick
realtick's picture

Not well, but thanks for thinking of me, Horus.

http://i38.tinypic.com/2ns6urk.jpg

http://www.logoi.com/pastimages/horus.html

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:44 | 519281 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

:)

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:59 | 519298 greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture

hey realtick. where's that purty inverted h&s chart you were posting last week? got an updated one for us? lol

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:31 | 519317 realtick
realtick's picture

Yes. Do you like it?

http://i38.tinypic.com/2ns6urk.jpg

 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 09:23 | 519625 greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture

very much. thanks. not as bullish as you were last week, huh? what a difference a few trading days make. fyi, this chart was indicative of a h&s top well before this week, but glad to see you come around. not breaking through and staying above the june high of 1131 was a failed test and now it's back below the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages (among many others, i'm sure). nic's been spot on so far. we'll see what happens going forward. take it easy.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 11:12 | 519891 realtick
realtick's picture

No, thank you.

I'm as bearish and despondent about this sham of a market as the rest of the ZH community, and have been since the SEC went after Goldman and they sank the Deepwater Horus-zon on April 22.

My temporary bullishishness resulted from me trying to Jedi mind trick myself into trying to think more like Skynet and HAL 9000 and less like little ole me.

We're all seeing the same thing - a fractal daily H&S top that is the right shoulder of the monthly H&S top that has been forming over the past decade.

If you liked my chart, maybe you'll like my song as well. Be cool.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svcbUdlUjOk

 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 02:25 | 519395 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

so its week 32...anything coming on week 33( masonic number)

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 03:36 | 519407 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Wow, you are a complete moron and the archetype of a n00b ZH commentator. If you are too stupid to stay and or contribute to the topic; go be stupid someplace else. That goes not just for you, but for 90% of others [you know who you are]. 

Signed

Collective of 1y+ members of ZH.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 05:35 | 519461 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

i dnt think i said anything stupid.....numbers are important to these people and a little mention here and there wont spoil this forum

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 08:48 | 519572 Waterman Jim
Waterman Jim's picture

ok you got me..

smart ass

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 08:58 | 519594 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

Twat

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 10:20 | 519758 tmosley
tmosley's picture

This reminds me of a game I heard about recently where kids randomly punch each other in the nuts.  The news story on the subject talked about how a number of those kids had been sent to the hospital, some had to have their testicles removed.

I must say, your totally random and unwarranted aggression is pretty similar.  Also, you should speak for yourself, douche.  I'm sure the other 1 year+ members have their own opinions.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 12:50 | 520141 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

CB is one of, if not THE sharpest knife in the ZH drawer, next to Tyler of course. I would do a little research before I go and make an intellectually dulling comment like you just made. Sadly, I find myself in his stated demographic and find myself wondering. Have a little GD respect man.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 10:37 | 519804 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

You're goin' down, Cheeks. Nice try defending your "turf".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fWvub_WBho

Sun, 08/15/2010 - 23:55 | 523396 TireBite
TireBite's picture

Weak sauce cheeky. I've been at this since it was a blogspot, first read on seekingalpha. You're acting as if it's a cool band that is uncool as soon as it's discovered. The content hasn't changed and it's not as if the comments made the blog.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:43 | 519280 Moneygrove
Moneygrove's picture

Dick Cheney is the Omen !!!!!!!!!!! 666

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:22 | 519252 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

I'll throw you grizzlies a bone:

Crash of 2008 winner sees major top

Infuriatingly for finance profs/statisticians, Eliades does acknowledge there's a bullish interpretation of this cycle pattern -- but his own view is that it's probably "a market top over the next few weeks that might end up being a historic one, one that will not be visited again for years to come."

Even more infuriatingly for finance profs etc., Eliades then proceeds to adduce another cycle -- this time, he says, anonymously faxed to him. ("If the person who sent that fax to us reads or hears of this, please notify us, so we can acknowledge your discovery of the fascinating pattern we are about to relate.")

This 33-year cycle goes back to 1857 and suggests to Eliades that the October 2007 market top will "not be convincingly broken until around 2025-2026."

Against furious finance professors and the remarkably rude readers who post comments on my column, I plead the scientific method: Stockmarket Cycles has a claim to success.

Over the year to date, it's up 3.3% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, compared to just 0.7% for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index. Over the past 10 years, Stockmarket Cycles is up 3.57% annualized versus a mere 0.1% annualized for the total return Wilshire.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:21 | 519255 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Hedge Leo, hedge!! It's not too late!  The Beta party is O V E R...

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:26 | 519260 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Gary Shilling recommends 30-year zero coupon bonds...what do you think? I think I'll stick with my Chinese solars.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:58 | 519296 Nihilarian
Nihilarian's picture

The only thing people will be buying during a market crash is Chinese food. Solars will not see the light of day at that point -- pun very much intended. Cheerio!

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:35 | 519320 Maniac Researcher
Maniac Researcher's picture

What is with the obsession with Chinese solars? I'm really curious.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 07:40 | 519512 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

MR-did some research for you.  This ain't the start, but gives you the flavor. Understanding the terms "capacity factor," "albedo," and "I-Squared-R" will assist.

#347073

- Ned

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 14:58 | 520488 Maniac Researcher
Maniac Researcher's picture

Hmm. Feicháng hao or pòchan? I suppose only time will tell. (too bad ZH doesn't support pinyin or Hanzi)

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 07:00 | 519489 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

Leo, Just a question on these solars. Who is going to buy this stuff? To be succesful this has to be a government sponsored effort. We have to get towns, cities states and the whole country behind a program to build solar if it is to have any significant impact on our energy profile.

But that list of buyers has no money. They will not have money for at least two more years.

Go ask the solars. They will tell you that there is demand for their product, but there is no money to pay for it so the purchases are not being made.

 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 08:16 | 519542 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

My thoughts exactly.

Well written articles on pension funds, but I'm unsure what you anticipate will follow, given your excellent research, Leo... 

I doubt the underfunded union pension funds will be lower priority than solar power objectives.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 08:52 | 519585 Waterman Jim
Waterman Jim's picture

solar cells are like hybrid cars

still too expensive and inefficient 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 09:27 | 519633 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

You are all so clueless...do your DD and come back to me once you've read the latest earnings reports, and gone over company presentations.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 10:28 | 519776 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Now, now, I like solar power as much or more than the next guy, and own some small generating capacity myself, and will look to buy more once the current supply shortfall is overcome.  That said, why don't you talk about why YOU like Chinese solars, since you are always singing their praises, yet I have never seen you give any reason as to why you like them so much.  I mean, I can see why they would make an interesting addition to one's portfolio, but I'm not about to buy stocks ANYWHERE during this crisis, and don't particularly care to waste my time doing DD on something I have no plans to buy.

If they are a screaming buy, why don't you tell us why?  Talk your book, man.  Why CHINESE solars, and not Japanese, Korean, American, or even European solars?  Why Chinese solars and not Chinese coal, or Chinese oil exploration, or Chinese wind power manufacturers?

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 11:09 | 519879 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

I like all solars, but pick my spots carefully. In the US, watch companies like Sunpower (SPWRA) and MEMC Electronics (WFR), but also smaller players like Satcon Technologies (SATC). In Germany, Q-cells is the leader. Whole sector is just ramping up all over the world. Again, do your own DD, and if you don't know what you're talking about, then just don't bother replying.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 10:45 | 519826 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Don't worry, Leo. Survivalists like solars. But a lot of us are in the < 100w category. We're not trying to run a fridge or anything. We'd rather buy more guns and wheat.

Sat, 08/14/2010 - 00:13 | 521300 CPL
CPL's picture

From your initial call on chinese solars people would be in the hole around 90%.

 

Who cares.  Let's fix the real problem.  Too many people, too much hand to mouth and far too little real work being done.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:30 | 519263 Tripps
Tripps's picture

and there it IS folks!!!! ZEROHEDGE just blew its last trump card. another one of their 100 crash warnings because most people on this board missed the WHOLE RALLY and continue to only play the market short

 

1st, the bs GOLDMAN post the other day, now this. truly out of bullets.

 

LMFAO

 

 

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:43 | 519278 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Tripps, before you trip over your IQ, go back to read all my comments. :)

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:51 | 519289 Tripps
Tripps's picture

i wasn't replying to you. but thanks for the junk flags

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 01:06 | 519353 AUD
AUD's picture

Hey Leo, while your 'monster' jobs report still makes me laugh, I think you're right about the bullish trend in the stockmarket, or at least no chance of another panic selloff. We may just see a continuation of the same aimless wandering as the last 12 months.

Anyway, with everybody out of stocks and other 'risky' papers & into Treasuries, where's the real bubble? It's not as if these Treasury bonds are actually going to pay off, except in more of the same.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:57 | 519295 greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture

ummm... how is this one post zh's "last trump card"? practically every piece of economic data that comes out DAILY is another arrow in the quiver per se. if anyone is out of bullets right now, it's the fed. but i suppose they could print up all the bullets they want. that'll learn the naysayers.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:13 | 519310 Tripps
Tripps's picture

this blog is obviously been biased for bears since inception. but day after day folks come here for trading ideas and drink the beartard koolaid, and lose money

 

the best thing ever pumped here was gold or god forbid you guys would have lost it all

 

the market is not the economy

 

the market is loaded with companies with 20-50% global exposure

 

these companies are extremely profitable and lean

 

and yet, negativity reigns here still.

 

many of you want to believe in the bear lie but hopefully not stupid enuff to trade like that in ALL of your portfolio.

 

this country is having problems with jobs but once is starts creating them, the market could easily hit new highs in next 3 years. you bears will be wiped out

 

the way i see it...bears are out of bullets because they keep repeating the same arguments on every pullback, and scare everyone into puts and shorts again, thus providing buying power for the market

 

anyone worth their salt already knows all the bears arguments. and look where the sp500 is. can you imagine where it will be once jobs start being created???????????that should be your fear right now as a egomanical bear...while your sipping your martinis this weweekend

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:25 | 519314 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

This is the most lame, head-in-the sand bullish bs argument I've read in a while.

Keep dreamin, Tripps. The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Continue "playing" the market at your own peril.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:33 | 519318 Tripps
Tripps's picture

DO you deny that 95% of all the SP500 has yet again, in another so called bad economy...reported DAM Good #s?

 

you bears live in a delusional world. the market is not dead. look how they RAMP up netflix, akamai, etc lately. there is risk appetite out there and it will LUNGE long again very soon on all stocks

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:50 | 519337 LePetomane
LePetomane's picture

Netflix? Your basing an economic miracle on the modern equivalent of a movie distribution company?

Fer chrissakes.

 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 01:19 | 519362 mee-mee-mee
mee-mee-mee's picture

Tripps,,,,Cramer;  same guy??

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 01:20 | 519363 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Dude statistically the #s are almost always good (>70% of the time), it's only when TSHTF then do you have significant misses.

What stinks is that even against easy comparisons and REDUCED expectations, we have only seen modest upside surprises.

There are certainly exceptions but when you see a wider and growing divergence within markets it signals that tensions are building and often you get a big breakout either way.

What is strange is how bulls would under current conditions would rationale upside risk with claims of "money on the sidelines", "risk on", ie liquidity centric arguments while bears look towards economic fundamentals.

Liquidity can only keep things up for so long, and I would play the upside only because asset prices are biased to the upside, but to claim that under such conditions the probability of a major downdraft is negligible is downright idiotic.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 01:26 | 519370 ThreeTrees
ThreeTrees's picture

Two words:  Carry trade.

A few more:  Get some Austrian econ in your face.  Gains are what happen when you let prop desks leverage free money.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 02:23 | 519394 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Agreed, but we often underestimate the probability of liquidity lockups.

The more market gains are driven by liquidity the more vulnerable it is to sharp corrections.

The general investing public has less and less capacity to be the bagholders due to shrinking wealth (read as leverage) and income, so we are increasingly left with "hot" money driving prices.

The defining difference between retail bagholders and spec money is that specs run on leverage and cut and run - almost ensuring a crowding the exits situation should a sufficient shock arrive.

In the meantime between such events there's a whole ocean of pennys waiting to be picked but don't get caught in front the train.

 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 02:12 | 519388 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Exhibit A for why many more people still need to read and understand NN Taleb's thesis.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 04:28 | 519418 chrisina
chrisina's picture

The profit numbers aren't bad (NB: still lower than they were prior to the crisis) because:

1- companies reduced 10% of their workforce (hence the unemployement numbers which just aggrevates a declining aggregate demand due to deleveraging)

2- companies reduced investments (hence future growth prospects are going down)

3- companies reduced provisions on non performing assets because they fear taxes will be rising in the futue and prefer to pull earnings forward

 

It's just not that difficult to understand that with this conundrum future cash flows (on which valuations should be based) aren't likely to grow at pre-crisis rates.

What do you expect? companies will continue slashing 10% of their employees every year? That they'll reduce investments even more?

Current valuations are based on growth assumptions that have not an epsilon chance of materializing.

The mere fact that despite all the noise of recovery companies still aren't hiring nor increasing capex and hoarding cash instead should tell you something about how rozy they see the future outlook for their business. 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 07:47 | 519516 Budd Fox
Budd Fox's picture

Ok, go down to your garage, exit whatever vehicle you have, take to the motorway, then drive at 70 mph looking exclusively and solely in the rearview mirror....that is exactly going long the market 'cause they have announced good earnings...you won't go for more than half...3/4r of a mile...then, say hello for us to Hell.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:47 | 519331 Chump
Chump's picture

but day after day folks come here for trading ideas

Stopped reading here.  You are clueless.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:48 | 519333 LePetomane
LePetomane's picture

I'm very bullish on Government intervention in order to kickstart another real estate bubble. 

I just happen to be believe they be overzealous in their inflationary stimulus, overconfident in their abilities and an express incentive to underreport downside risk.  

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 07:49 | 519521 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

LeP-and 'twere ever so, especially the last time this was tried:

“We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work.”

- Henry Morgenthau, Jr.

http://blog.heritage.org/2009/01/14/were-spending-more-than-ever-and-it-...

But recovery is not their goal, "fundamental change" is.  "Barrack knows..."

- Ned

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:50 | 519335 TimmyM
TimmyM's picture

Tripps, thanks for being the bid side. Keep up the good work!

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 01:04 | 519352 fuu
fuu's picture

Your confirmation bias is showing.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 03:49 | 519412 russki standart
russki standart's picture

And your ten year trading record is....?

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 07:51 | 519525 Budd Fox
Budd Fox's picture

Mine 13.3%...average, compounded...volatility 16%. Can publish the monthly tables if you like.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 05:25 | 519455 doggings
doggings's picture

@Tripps - I think "Tripping" would have been a better name for you

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 08:08 | 519535 jimijon
jimijon's picture

German is experiencing almost record exports.

 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 01:54 | 519381 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

I'm less concerned about the market and more about having a job and feeding my kids. Maybe retiring someday. I'm not a trader so I'm not really making money one way or the other.

Out of bullets? I think ZH is just getting started. Keep trying though, it's entertaining.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 02:21 | 519393 Young
Young's picture

*Censured*... Damn I'm getting uncomfortable smashing comments. Must be getting old, or superstitious...

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 03:31 | 519404 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

1st, the bs GOLDMAN post the other day, now this. truly out of bullets.

 

LMFAO

 

If that's true, where are you sticking your head now?

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 07:51 | 519524 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

l MY ao

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 10:37 | 519800 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I guess you missed the part where the market has been ramping up in the face of record net withdrawals.  How exactly do things become so much more valuable when everyone is selling them?  Simple, someone with a near infinite amount of money comes onto the scene and buys everything.  You can choose to hold onto stocks, or you can see that this turn of events has broken the market, which is no longer trading on fundamentals, and instead buy something with good fundamentals that is in fact making its owners a lot of money, ie gold and silver.

What are you going to do when the next flash crash comes, but there is no flash recovery?

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