A Hitchhiker's Guide To The Greek Crisis, On This, The Day Of The Vote Of (No) Confidence

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Reuters has compiled a useful summary for everyone confused why the S&P may be trading with the volatility of a 3-page Hank Paulson blank check TARP proposal day, based on what a few MPs in Greece decide to vote, or not, for, in just under 10 hours.

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

The cabinet of
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a confidence vote late on
Tuesday, the first of three tests the Greek government must survive to
avert the euro zone's first sovereign debt default.

The vote
follows a euro zone ultimatum that the debt-choked Mediterranean state
must enact a new five-year package of painful economic reforms within
two weeks or miss out on a 12-billion-euro aid tranche that it needs to
avert bankruptcy.

Parliament will debate the confidence vote
against a backdrop of deep public anger over the pain of the austerity
measures. IMF and European inspectors have arrived in Athens to discuss
changes requested by Greece to the reform package.

Unions and
grassroots activists will protest at parliament ahead of the vote,
building on more than three weeks of demonstrations that erupted into
violence last week and split the ruling PASOK party.

German
insurer Allianz has warned against a "haircut" for
holders of Greek sovereign debt, saying it could trigger a dangerous
chain reaction.

WHAT'S NEXT?

  • Confidence vote in Greek parliament at 2100 GMT
  • Representatives from "troika" of EU, IMF and European Central Bank in Athens for talks through June 22
  • European Union summit meeting in Brussels on June 23-24
  • Parliamentary vote on more austerity steps tentatively set for June 28
  • Main labour unions to launch 48-hour strike on day of austerity vote

 

WHAT'S THE PROBLEM?

Greece has a sovereign debt pile of 340 billion euros ($481.5 billion),
more than 30,000 euros per person in a population of 11.3 million. The
110-billion-euro bailout Greece accepted last year from the European
Union and International Monetary Fund has proved insufficient and a
second package worth 120 billion euros is now under discussion. With its
debt equivalent to 150 percent of annual output, Greece holds two
unwanted world records: the lowest credit rating for a sovereign state,
and the most expensive debt to insure. Its people have lost patience
with an ever-deepening austerity drive that has slashed public sector
wages by a fifth and pensions by a tenth.

Around 53 billion of
the original 110 billion euro package has been paid out so far. The
government estimates that Greek debt will reach about 350 billion euros
at the end of this year, taking in EU/IMF aid tranches including the 12
billion euro emergency loan earmarked for July.

About 70 percent
of Greece's debt is held abroad and the remainder at home. Greece is
paying an average 4.2 percent interest rate on EU/IMF bailout loans.

 

WHY DOES IT MATTER OUTSIDE GREECE?

The
longer the crisis drags on, the greater the risk that contagion will
spread to other troubled euro zone economies like Ireland and Portugal,
which have also been bailed out before, and Spain, which is much bigger
and would be far more expensive -- perhaps too expensive -- to rescue.

A default by Greece would hammer the banks that hold its debt,
including the European Central Bank and big French and German lenders.
It could also prompt credit markets to freeze up, as happened after
Lehman's demise when banks virtually stopped lending to each other.

The White House said on June 16 the Greek crisis was acting as a
headwind to the U.S. economy but opinions vary as to the level of
exposure of U.S. banks.

A Greek default would be a catastrophe
and a humiliation for the European Union, which launched the euro in
1999 as its most ambitious project and a symbol of the continent's
unity. It has prompted some commentators to think the unthinkable: that
the euro zone might break up, either by the expulsion of Greece or the
departure of Germany, the EU's paymaster, which might be tempted to
return to its own currency.

SO WHY NOT JUST BAIL GREECE OUT AGAIN?

The EU's big players -- notably Germany, France and the European
Central Bank -- have struggled to work out a rescue mechanism. European
governments are keen to avoid a "hard default" because this could
threaten banks throughout the euro zone and further afield.

They
are therefore discussing a "soft landing" in the form of a debt
extension or voluntary rollover by creditors, but some of the proposals
have been criticised as a default by another name.

WHO ARE THE KEY PLAYERS?

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou last week reshuffled his
government to quell dissent in his ruling Socialist party and gave the
finance portfolio to Evangelos Venizelos, a party rival. Venizelos is a
political heavyweight who ran the preparations for the 2004 Athens
Olympics, but has no economic track record.

At the European
level, the single most influential figure is German Chancellor Angela
Merkel, as head of the EU's biggest economy. Merkel, who is losing
popularity and has suffered a string of 1defeats in state elections, is
under intense pressure from a German public that resents footing the
bill for what is widely seen as Greek profligacy -- hence her insistence
that banks should share some of the pain. Merkel has been accused of
holding up the second Greek aid package, further eroding investor
confidence which could make the bailout more expensive.

WHAT ABOUT THE GREEK PEOPLE?

Public disgruntlement over austerity -- including curbs on widespread
early retirement, tax rises and cuts in benefits and wages -- has
erupted into frequent strikes and protests, some of them violent.
Unemployment is rising. In a poll last month, 80 percent of people said
they refused to make any more sacrifices to get more EU/IMF aid. Bank
and utility workers, public sector contractors and even doctors have
taken to the streets. Private sector workers blame the bloated public
sector, civil servants blame tax cheats and many Greeks blame corrupt
politicians for the country's problems.

"The big problem of Greek
society is the tendency to consider somebody else is responsible for
everything that goes wrong," said analyst Theodore Couloumbis.

HOW DID IT COME TO THIS?

Greece, whose economy had grown strongly but suffered problems with
corruption and bureaucracy, joined the euro zone a decade ago, linking
its economy to other European countries.

It went into recession
in 2009 after 15 years of growth and its budget deficit hit 15.4 percent
of GDP after a series of revisions by the government which revealed the
country's economy was in far worse shape than it had previously
admitted.

Chronic problems include rampant tax evasion -- the labour minister has estimated a quarter of the economy pays nothing.

More broadly, the Greek crisis reflects an inherent weakness in the
euro's structure -- a currency zone with a "one size fits all" interest
rate for a set of widely divergent economies, and 17 different countries
running their own fiscal policies.

How the crisis plays out will determine the failure or survival of the project.