A Hitchhiker's Guide To The Greek Crisis, On This, The Day Of The Vote Of (No) Confidence

Tyler Durden's picture

Reuters has compiled a useful summary for everyone confused why the S&P may be trading with the volatility of a 3-page Hank Paulson blank check TARP proposal day, based on what a few MPs in Greece decide to vote, or not, for, in just under 10 hours.

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

The cabinet of
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a confidence vote late on
Tuesday, the first of three tests the Greek government must survive to
avert the euro zone's first sovereign debt default.

The vote
follows a euro zone ultimatum that the debt-choked Mediterranean state
must enact a new five-year package of painful economic reforms within
two weeks or miss out on a 12-billion-euro aid tranche that it needs to
avert bankruptcy.

Parliament will debate the confidence vote
against a backdrop of deep public anger over the pain of the austerity
measures. IMF and European inspectors have arrived in Athens to discuss
changes requested by Greece to the reform package.

Unions and
grassroots activists will protest at parliament ahead of the vote,
building on more than three weeks of demonstrations that erupted into
violence last week and split the ruling PASOK party.

German
insurer Allianz has warned against a "haircut" for
holders of Greek sovereign debt, saying it could trigger a dangerous
chain reaction.

WHAT'S NEXT?

  • Confidence vote in Greek parliament at 2100 GMT
  • Representatives from "troika" of EU, IMF and European Central Bank in Athens for talks through June 22
  • European Union summit meeting in Brussels on June 23-24
  • Parliamentary vote on more austerity steps tentatively set for June 28
  • Main labour unions to launch 48-hour strike on day of austerity vote

 

WHAT'S THE PROBLEM?

Greece has a sovereign debt pile of 340 billion euros ($481.5 billion),
more than 30,000 euros per person in a population of 11.3 million. The
110-billion-euro bailout Greece accepted last year from the European
Union and International Monetary Fund has proved insufficient and a
second package worth 120 billion euros is now under discussion. With its
debt equivalent to 150 percent of annual output, Greece holds two
unwanted world records: the lowest credit rating for a sovereign state,
and the most expensive debt to insure. Its people have lost patience
with an ever-deepening austerity drive that has slashed public sector
wages by a fifth and pensions by a tenth.

Around 53 billion of
the original 110 billion euro package has been paid out so far. The
government estimates that Greek debt will reach about 350 billion euros
at the end of this year, taking in EU/IMF aid tranches including the 12
billion euro emergency loan earmarked for July.

About 70 percent
of Greece's debt is held abroad and the remainder at home. Greece is
paying an average 4.2 percent interest rate on EU/IMF bailout loans.

 

WHY DOES IT MATTER OUTSIDE GREECE?

The
longer the crisis drags on, the greater the risk that contagion will
spread to other troubled euro zone economies like Ireland and Portugal,
which have also been bailed out before, and Spain, which is much bigger
and would be far more expensive -- perhaps too expensive -- to rescue.

A default by Greece would hammer the banks that hold its debt,
including the European Central Bank and big French and German lenders.
It could also prompt credit markets to freeze up, as happened after
Lehman's demise when banks virtually stopped lending to each other.

The White House said on June 16 the Greek crisis was acting as a
headwind to the U.S. economy but opinions vary as to the level of
exposure of U.S. banks.

A Greek default would be a catastrophe
and a humiliation for the European Union, which launched the euro in
1999 as its most ambitious project and a symbol of the continent's
unity. It has prompted some commentators to think the unthinkable: that
the euro zone might break up, either by the expulsion of Greece or the
departure of Germany, the EU's paymaster, which might be tempted to
return to its own currency.

SO WHY NOT JUST BAIL GREECE OUT AGAIN?

The EU's big players -- notably Germany, France and the European
Central Bank -- have struggled to work out a rescue mechanism. European
governments are keen to avoid a "hard default" because this could
threaten banks throughout the euro zone and further afield.

They
are therefore discussing a "soft landing" in the form of a debt
extension or voluntary rollover by creditors, but some of the proposals
have been criticised as a default by another name.

WHO ARE THE KEY PLAYERS?

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou last week reshuffled his
government to quell dissent in his ruling Socialist party and gave the
finance portfolio to Evangelos Venizelos, a party rival. Venizelos is a
political heavyweight who ran the preparations for the 2004 Athens
Olympics, but has no economic track record.

At the European
level, the single most influential figure is German Chancellor Angela
Merkel, as head of the EU's biggest economy. Merkel, who is losing
popularity and has suffered a string of 1defeats in state elections, is
under intense pressure from a German public that resents footing the
bill for what is widely seen as Greek profligacy -- hence her insistence
that banks should share some of the pain. Merkel has been accused of
holding up the second Greek aid package, further eroding investor
confidence which could make the bailout more expensive.

WHAT ABOUT THE GREEK PEOPLE?

Public disgruntlement over austerity -- including curbs on widespread
early retirement, tax rises and cuts in benefits and wages -- has
erupted into frequent strikes and protests, some of them violent.
Unemployment is rising. In a poll last month, 80 percent of people said
they refused to make any more sacrifices to get more EU/IMF aid. Bank
and utility workers, public sector contractors and even doctors have
taken to the streets. Private sector workers blame the bloated public
sector, civil servants blame tax cheats and many Greeks blame corrupt
politicians for the country's problems.

"The big problem of Greek
society is the tendency to consider somebody else is responsible for
everything that goes wrong," said analyst Theodore Couloumbis.

HOW DID IT COME TO THIS?

Greece, whose economy had grown strongly but suffered problems with
corruption and bureaucracy, joined the euro zone a decade ago, linking
its economy to other European countries.

It went into recession
in 2009 after 15 years of growth and its budget deficit hit 15.4 percent
of GDP after a series of revisions by the government which revealed the
country's economy was in far worse shape than it had previously
admitted.

Chronic problems include rampant tax evasion -- the labour minister has estimated a quarter of the economy pays nothing.

More broadly, the Greek crisis reflects an inherent weakness in the
euro's structure -- a currency zone with a "one size fits all" interest
rate for a set of widely divergent economies, and 17 different countries
running their own fiscal policies.

How the crisis plays out will determine the failure or survival of the project.

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Ethics Gradient's picture

Anyone have any idea what the ration of no to yes will likely be?

qussl3's picture

Apparently 155 PASOK will be yes.

Ethics Gradient's picture

I do apologise. I should have said:

What will the ratio of no to yes be, bitchez?

topcallingtroll's picture

the ratio won't matter.

It is scary as hell going long now, but I still think germany and greece will gloss over their differences for one more round of bailout roulette.

News should be positive today?

ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

ha ha...vote 2100 GMT which I think is when NO markets are open.

Long night for longs tonight, rottsaruk trol

Ethics Gradient's picture

No vote has ever set back the EU agenda.

This will only end when only Germany is left to backstop everbody and it realizes it can't afford to.

There's years to go yet.

Rynak's picture

If my calculations are right, then yes - it will be about one hour after market close.

Bugman82's picture

Newswires are saying it is much more likely that he'll remain in power than be thrown out.  Basically, all the political parties are in bed with the idea of austerity and the people who are rioting have no representation.

Ethics Gradient's picture

I do think anyone has ever rioted because they agree with their representatives...

Pool Shark's picture

 

"Anyone have any idea what the ratio of no to yes will likely be?"

How about 42?

[Don't panic; it's mostly harmless...]

 

qussl3's picture

Like the Vogon construction crew overhead?

qussl3's picture

This is bear, handle it the same way you guarantee a lehmann.

 

Ivanovich's picture

"Chronic problems include rampant tax evasion -- the labour minister has estimated a quarter of the economy pays nothing."

 

Hey, where did I read something like that before?  Oh yeah, here!  Except it's closer to 50%.

JustACitizen's picture

Perhaps that is the case here in the US?

However - I'll bet they can't beat us for huge multinational corporations that not only do not pay income taxes - but - also receive  truckloads of cash from the gubmint... We are the epicenter for big corporate malfeasance - just follow the money.

The situation here is especially galling since we also get involved in so many foreign adventures in the name of truth, profit and the American way....

 

Paralympic Equity's picture

If they vote confidence stop them, people of Greece stop this crooks

hugovanderbubble's picture

Greece Exit EURO

Vote No

-Say hello to neo drachmas

Massive devaluation in Eurozone

Two Euro´s Floating A and B

Rynak's picture

In a poll last month, 80 percent of people said they refused to make any more sacrifices to get more EU/IMF aid.

What is there left to vote on? Oh wait..... 'mockracy.

topcallingtroll's picture

Rynak the greeks are silly.  They remind me of a king who commanded that the tide turn around.

It doesn't matter what they "refuse" to do.  They are going to make more sacrifices one way or another. 

It is interesting how they and most countries will "refuse" to make sacrifices, but by their actions make the sacrifices worse.

Rynak's picture

Which will ultimately make a breakdown unavoidable, unless they totally sell out to the lenders.... who will then fuck them over even more. How the fuck do the banksters imagine this to work out anyways? Does anyone even have any working idea at all how this could work?

As i see it, the only question on the table is how much suffering everyone wants. FFS, the entire economic structure of the EMU is unworkable..... accept it and start working on something that does work, instead of wasting everyones time, blood and money on denial.

msamour's picture

I suppose a good answer to that would be to eliminate all bankers, all lawyers, and all politicians. The oceans are big and deep you know.

el Gallinazo's picture

How the fuck do the banksters imagine this to work out anyways?

 

As David Rockefeller announced semi-publically two decades ago, one of the primary agendas of the world banking cartel is the destruction of the sovereign nation state, so that the world could then be run by enlightened bankers, the equivalent of Plato's philospher kings.  Society would revert politically to a semi feudal state with some central control through the IMF as the central bank and NATO as the primary repressive force to counter revolution.  In this respect, the crushing of Greece into a failed state is even more important than the banksters not taking a loss on their debt.

 

As many have pointed out, the Euro cannot survive without political union.  This is the next step by the banksters.  They have failed in the past because it has been rejected repeatedly by national referendums.  So now they are on a Naomi Klein course of producing a disaster that would necessitate it.

 

So the end game is a world government composed of bankster feudal fiefdoms. Serfdom bitchez.

JustACitizen's picture

Canute - a Danish King of England - had a coterie of flatterers who supposed that he was such a great king that even the tides would turn upon his command. He went through the exercise that is usually referred to in legend to demonstrate that the power of any man - even a king was limited... By the way - he was a believer in "sound money".

Some of the PTB could learn something from him...

John Law Lives's picture

Greece's debt has continued to grow.  The austerity measures being discussed will result in tens of thousands of jobs in Greece being eliminated.  If Greece can not repay its debt now, how can the loss of tens of thousands of more jobs lead anyone to believe Greece will be able to pay an even larger debt.

EU = FUBAR

Kicking the can down the road... and the can is getting bigger.

Rynak's picture

EU = FUBAR

Actually, no. The EU is not necessarily fubar (though, i strongly dislike it's increasingly centralized politics - i don't want an EU gov.... i just want an efficient way for european countries to cooperate with mutual consent, while fully and with no compromises everyone keeping full sovereignty).

The EMU/Eurozone/Euro on the other hand is a stupidity that never ever should even have been introduced.

Rynak's picture

What does this have to do with the EU? You know that there is a difference between EU and EMU, right? (To oversimplify it: EU = mainly political union, EMU = the economic union)

Rynak's picture

That article, as the title implies, was written by socgen, not tyler.

John Law Lives's picture

That article was published on this site which is moderated by Tyler.

Spare this thread your petty semantics.

Rynak's picture

My "petty semantics" are:

- differentiating between a political alliance, and an economic alliance. Comparison: The NATO is not a currency. I.e. the end of the dollar does not necessarily mean the end of NATO, doh.

- differentiating between the author of an article, and the one who publishes it (i.e., if one finds a good article, which however in one sentence uses a wrong term, then one may publish it anyways)

So, you know.... spare this site with your dumbness.

John Law Lives's picture

- Save the lecture, professor.  The EU is formally defined as a political and economic union.  The EU is FUBAR.  That is exactly what I said and it is exactly what I meant.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union

  - I never said Tyler wrote that article, brainiac.  You falsely asserted that I did.  I said "ask Tyler".  I referenced an article he saw fit to publish on this site.

Spare this site from your equivocation.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.... (this is the sound of snoring as a direct result of your putting the thread to sleep with your drivel)...

Rynak's picture

What are you... 12? This is so lol..... all this wiggling and crap, just to defend yourself from using ONE wrong WORD? You go into defensive "need to be right to save my ego"-mode just for being corrected on the use of a word?!?

If wrong use of a term already shakes your selfconfidence, then what do more significant flaws do? Oh well..... poor being.

John Law Lives's picture

I did not use a wrong word.  I said the EU is FUBAR.  That is exactly what I said, and it is exactly what I meant.  I also never said Tyler wrote the article.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...  You are putting me back to sleep.

 

Rynak's picture

*leaves john 8 natos for sweets and then goes to do something more productive*

John Law Lives's picture

You simply can't admit that you were wrong on both counts, simpleton.

EU = FUBAR

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/nevermind-bailouts-greece-t-...

Hedge Jobs's picture

"A Greek default would be a catastrophe" Here we go agian with the threats. Like the current situation is really going well.

they will get this through, look at the markets its a done deal. The only unknown is how the people of greece, and waddel and reed, respond.

Rynak's picture

"The world will end if you do not do what i say!"

Withdrawn Sanction's picture

It's true of course....the world WILL end...for the bankstas and their pet politicians.

rootProbiscus's picture

What about a mention that the Greek government(s), in collaboration with some (all) major banks, hid the fact that they borrowed some of the money. This fact was hidden from the Greek people and from the other Euro member states.
These borrowing were revealed like a rabbit from a hat two years ago and the Greek people are quite rightly asking well we didn't know about it, and did we really get the benefit from it. The loans were purposefully hid, so why should we repay. This is especially so given the corruption rampant in Greece.
Remove these dodgy loans from the books, with repayment of $0 in the dollar, and I am sure that an agreement with the Greek people could be reached.

youngman's picture

These banks that hid their loans to Greece...you can bet are going to get paid first if they haven´t already been...the crooks get paid first..before the legit loans.....more bonus money for GS..

erklärbär's picture

I wonder how the market will react to either outcome.

 

 

 

 

 

BCTwelve's picture

were you asleep yesterday?

erklärbär's picture

something happened!? Gold a little up, Dax a little down. Certainly not doomsday like ... (I'm fucking ignorant, that's why I'm asking in the first place ...)

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

How can they service this debt when the Power companies are going to keep striking. Maybe its just me, but I thought electricity is required to fulfill economic growth ambitions?

qussl3's picture

Since when did reality matter?

Gordon Freeman's picture

Who gives a shit anymore?  It's all a foregone conclusion.

Can? meet shoe...

Franken_Stein's picture

 

There will be no market reaction to either outcome.

How could it, when the market is 100% rigged ?

 

Version 7's picture

This is the beginning. Events at the present time are still going linear. Wait for more sovereign defaults to join the Greeks, and the mathematics of chaos will get in charge.

Gordon Freeman's picture

I guarantee that, even if all the PIIGS defaulted, it would not stop the game TPTB are playing.

Version 7's picture

The PIIGS default, a coup takes place in one or two, maybe civil war for the most dynamic, banks fail again, stop lending, Dow down 2K pts in a week, social unrest, eg UK leaves the EU, etc, etc.

Use your imagination. TPTB better have a strong knowledge of mathematics of chaos.