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Holiday, No Holiday, Doesn't Matter: Silver Still Up By A Buck

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Not content with rising by a dollar during all recent regular work days, silver is now up a buck on a holiday. Doesn't make much sense, but we'll take it.

And for something actually relevant, below is yesterday's Gold options reports from FMX Connect, whose calls so far have been spot on.

Summary

June Gold settled at $1503.80 per troy ounce, a gain of $4.90 for the day. Gold continued to trend higher ahead of a long, holiday weekend. Options trading was steady and a continuation of yesterday’s activity. Volatility was slightly lower going into a long weekend.

Commentary & Analysis:

Today’s futures activity was a repeat of yesterday’s. The options activity also mirrored yesterday but at a lower volume of interest. In this article, we’d like to lay out what we think will happen to gold over the next 6 days. Before we do let’s discuss the futures activity. Today, as in the last 4 or 5 days, the market was very orderly. It traded new all-time highs overnight. While futures came in higher on the Comex, they traded in a  tight range, approaching but never piercing the overnight high. The range has consistently been between 1495 and 1507. Every day it moves up a couple dollars. Today it was 1500-1510, with most of the day spent between 1501-1507. We’ve seen this behavior before. When you combine this activity with a big holiday weekend and a specific type of options open interest you have a setup for a $20 move higher.

There were 6800 lots of open interest in the May 1500 call going into today and  interest has remained at that level for some time. Market making firms and locals are long, while banks are playing from the short side. Banks have the deeper pockets and one might assume that the strike will be pinned if he is a student of history. And so here we are, hovering around the strike, ripe for a pin.

Enter the May 1520 call buyer. Over the last 3 days large volumes of the 1520 call have been purchased. with approximately 6400 contracts trading on Tuesday alone, almost all of them purchased near the days’ lows. These are not impulsive buys; on the contrary, they seem well thought out. We believe the long is strong and once the May 1500 gravity is broken, as is happening slowly, a nice pop in the market will occur. Finally, take note of the market’s opening schedule reposted here and its implications for futures liquidity:

•    April 21st, Holy Thursday: day before a holiday
•    April 22nd: Good Friday: CME Closed
•    April 23rd,Easter Saturday: Markets Closed
•    April 24th,Easter Sunday: Markets Closed
•    April 25th, Easter Monday: LME Closed (Largest Physical Bullion Exchange Worldwide)
•    April 26th, Tuesday: May Options Expiration CME

While everyone we speak with is worried about the 1500 strike being pinned we think the 1520 is more significant. If we go to the 1520 strike money will change hands in a spectacular fashion, whether we pin it, progress through, or fail.

As for the other months, August calls were bid, specifically the 1600 strike. This was a different type of buyer from the 1700 call buyer yesterday but both were bullish. June calls were also bid but found sellers in the futures selloff and never quite recovered. August, however, remained firm. June at-the-money options were lower from two types of sellers, retail liquidating 1500 calls for a profit and speculative bulls selling naked puts the 1500-1480 area. As stated many times before, if this market continues to bid call skew then puts will have to give up, and we are finally starting to see that in the December 1300-1200 area. There were sellers of the December 1200 put in outright and spread form today. If this continues we will have seen the continuation of the skew transformation. Finally, December 1700 and 1800 calls are untouchable.

 

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Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:52 | 1196070 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

"You gonna do some prayin' for me boy. And you better pray good."

http://www.discdish.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Deliverance.jpg

Classic Southern Americana.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:10 | 1196154 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

something to do with china?

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 13:11 | 1196577 wanklord
wanklord's picture

Can someone elaborate on the following article?

Rumor: China To Revalue Yuan 10% This Weekend?
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=184595
Just stated on CNBC.

I have no way to judge that, but if it comes it is both good and bad.

The good: It’s about a third of what has to happen, and as a step function it would apply major cooling to the “Chinese miracle” inflation machine. They need to do that too, which makes the rumor plausible. Coming on a long trading weekend here (Good Friday/Passover closes us this week) and on a weekend anyway (China’s favored time to do this sort of thing) it would be appropriate both in terms of timing and event.

The bad: While there would be no direct dollar impact from this action since the Yuan is not convertible and thus not part of the $DXY index the indirect effects would be tremendously disruptive in the short term. This has a high probability of forcing corrective actions by The Fed, perhaps even before the futures market reopens Sunday night. The risk for The Fed and United States is that the dollar winds up gapping down by hundreds of pips, perhaps threatening the all-time low. Violation of the all-time low could result in massive pressing of short bets and a possible immediate fiscal crisis.

Please don’t take this article the wrong way – I strongly support a Chinese action such as this, even though it’s not enough on its own. The move in the dollar today may be related to this rumor and expectation of action over the weekend.

Beware coming into the weekend with this rumor out there; volatility is, in my opinion, radically cheap against reality and the complacency being displayed by the market is flat-out ridiculous.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 15:43 | 1197239 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Silver only costs $5USD an ounce. MethMan said so.

He's a genius because he drives a Ferrari and has "Math" as part of his name.

 

/sark ozy off

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 14:31 | 1204545 tomster0126
tomster0126's picture

lol. Ferrari mathman's too busy speeding in his replica to realize his spending power is completely diminished.

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:15 | 1196177 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

AW someone doesnt like Deliverance this morning...I guess Mathman, Spalding and Robo must have dropped by.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:20 | 1196187 Obummer
Obummer's picture

Ladies and gentlemen, fellow Americans, good citizens of the world. Much talk has been made about the increasing value of silver on today's markets.  And while I would love to tell you that this is another sign that our free market is strong and vital, I cannot. At my request the Federal Reserve has looked into the cause of these price increases.  Folks, they were shocked to find that speculation in the silver markets is the cause. Apparently these speculators make bets that the cost of silver will continue to go up. Because speculators are not willing to take delivery of physical silver this causes the price to actually increase. As you can see, this is a nefarious scheme.

This high cost of silver is a grave threat to our nation, to our ability to win the future. For instance, most Americans may not realize that each cruise missle we use in Libya has around fifteen kilograms of silver in it. This means that our humanitarian mission to restore democracy in Libya is held hostage by these high silver prices.  This is not right. This is not the America I love. Let me be clear; I will not allow this speculation to continue. I will not allow those with wealth to exploit hard-working Americans in this way. Not as long as I am president.

Some say that silver price increases may be due to my administration's policy of dollar value deflation. I am here to tell you that these claims are just plain wrong. Not only that, they are dangerous to our way of life. For behind this rise in silver are the very terrorists we have been fighting against for so long.  And now these terrorist organizations have infiltrated the very heart of America, and are in our living rooms and our bedrooms even as I speak.  Rest assured that I will do everything in my power as President of this great nation to repel this threat to our ways, and that in the coming months we shall take decisive action against this new menace to our financial stability and Constitutional law.  We will protect democracy around the world.  We will win the future.

Thank you, good night, and God bless America.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:23 | 1196196 TIMMAYYY
TIMMAYYY's picture

thank you oh great leader...for a second there I thought something was wrong.

 

I shall sing your praises in my prayers.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 19:55 | 1197905 Aghast in Midlothian
Aghast in Midlothian's picture

I take all the junks as a sign that there are still Obama voters who are unable to come to grips with the fact that the guy is a horrible president and worse leader. Either that, or the paid pre-election Trolls are mounting up for the November 2012 event

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:22 | 1196204 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

what's scary about this speech is that it could actually be delivered by telOpromter...

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:31 | 1196232 6_7_42
6_7_42's picture

+100 man I could hear the hopeful one and it made me afraid.  Frak me!

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:37 | 1196257 medicalstudent
medicalstudent's picture

who leaked it.

 ag price event 2011

 

 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:41 | 1196277 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

At 15kg silver per cruise missile, this comes to about 100 troy oz per missile. If we say the price is $50/troy oz, today's cost is $5000 of silver per missile. If silver goes to $100/troy ounce, the cost per missile doubles to $10,000.

But the cost of a cruise missile is $1mm. So the cost increase is a measley .5%, hardly a matter of national security.

Unless you're JPM of course.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:55 | 1196340 Sabremesh
Sabremesh's picture

15kg (@32.15 ozt/kg) is actually 482 troy ounces.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 13:23 | 1196615 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Anybody who ows it, can tell you in a blink of a eye how manny ounce 1 kilo is :)

 

BESIDES GOOGLE!!

1 ounce = 28.3495231 grams

http://www.google.nl/#q=ounce+grammes&bih=953&biw=2105&fp=7b7b3990dd41de64&hl=nl

 

 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 13:34 | 1196631 Gigliola Cinquetti
Gigliola Cinquetti's picture

google is right about that , try googleing "troy ounce"

there fix it for ya

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 13:54 | 1196693 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

http://cgi.ebay.com/1891-SILVER-925-CROWN-QUEEN-VICTORIA-GEORGE-DRAGON-/180656074063?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item2a0ff0ed4f

 

Proof that some people think they have more silver because of that little mistake.

 

 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 13:33 | 1196633 mojine
mojine's picture
1 troy ounce = 31.1034768 grams

Precious metals such as gold and silver are sold by the troy ounce.

32.15 OZT in a Kilogram


Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:30 | 1196873 Votewithabullet
Votewithabullet's picture

Anybody who owns it can tell  you the wrong answer. Fucking doh.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:58 | 1196341 That Peak Oil Guy
That Peak Oil Guy's picture

Raw materials costs have a tendency to escalate through the military supply chain, so that silver is probably a bigger component of the total cost than it seems based on the price for the raw material.  Remember the military's $600 toilet seats?

http://conservativenewjersey.com/how-a-toilet-seat-can-cost-600

TPOG

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 13:19 | 1196610 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Truly.  Considering that this is the government, they're probably buying ASEs from the Mint at 3x spot (plus premium and shipping and handling), shipping them to China to be melted down, shipping them back, and then putting them in the missiles.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 00:28 | 1198416 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Allow me to explain those $700 (not $500) hammers (toilet seats, whatever!) to you, then you can decide better about the wisdom of a large Federal Govt.  Military Contractor gets MIL-SPECs from the Pentagon on just how the hammer is to perform, and how to test it to ensure conformance to the MIL-SPECs.  The Pentagon cuts a procurement order for hammers.  Contractor goes out and buys $15 hammers, tests a statistical sample of them to verify their conformance to the MIL-SPECs.  In the process of doing so, a two-foot high stack of paper gets generated so that the Military Contractor and the Pentagon can prove to the US Congress that the People are not getting less hammer than the Military requires to do the job.  In short, $15 hammer + Two-Foot stack of paper = $700.  Now then, who do we string up here?

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:58 | 1199673 ultarnerd
ultarnerd's picture

Bit to add here, I used to always prefer military
components for my electronics projects here in
Canada as I wanted parts that would work well
outside in the cold here and just to be more
reliable as I have respect for quality. I
am embarrassed to buy into name brand scams
only meant to charge more money to
the sheeple more for the same !@#$.
But in the end the markups can be
ridiculous.Ever try to buy gold from a lab supply
company selling to local high schools etc you
will end up paying about 5 times more over spot.
I expect the whole medical
industry is similar.I usually scrongs junk yard stuff and
you usualy find that industrial and militry stuff
is usually of very high quality compared to
consumer stuff.Got some old Phone industry
relays where
the relays contacts were about 22k solid gold
worth ( guessing from memory now) more
than 10.00 each just for the gold
at market value.Nearly cried when a worker told me
he threw thousands of these away while telling me
he made a few hundred in copper.
I only buy scarce uncommon stuff on ebay now.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 15:26 | 1197158 nufio
nufio's picture

maybe this will trigger a conflict between the MIC and the financial industry.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:43 | 1196286 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

don't freak me out like that!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 14:33 | 1204556 thames222
thames222's picture

You should be freaking out!  Buy seeds and any arable land you can, collapse is inevitable and we're not going to have any good sources of food left.  have you read McCarthy's "The road," or seen the movie version with Viggo Mortenson?  

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:45 | 1196293 Exposer of Inte...
Exposer of Internet Shills's picture

You're hired!

 

Mohammed Ahem  Moroni

WH hiring management

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:23 | 1196427 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Obummer- I really enjoy your sarcastic perspective.

The sad thing is the validity of the nonsense you spew in the eyes or the msm sheeple. Turds blog this morning talks about OReilly throwing MaObama a bone last night and going after the speculators. Fuck me the morons need to wake up.

End the MotherFucking FED!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 14:33 | 1204567 thames222
thames222's picture

End the Fed! End the Fed! End the Fed! Hugh, thoughts on forming a Facebook group or other campaign to organize people in a massive protest against Bernutty and the rest of the goons?

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:23 | 1196428 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

In summary, according to Barry the illegal alien Kenyan... 'If youre holding silver, youre kinda a terrorist'.

Thank you and good evening, winning the future.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 13:03 | 1196566 greenbear
greenbear's picture

+10000!!

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:28 | 1196862 Michael
Michael's picture

There's no more fucking silver on the store shelves to buy you stupid fucking moron President Obama. Blame Econ101 and your stupid banksters for destroying the currency.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 19:57 | 1197917 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

No problem. They'll just create a silver from nothing czar.

 

 

 

 

to replace the one we destroyed...

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:42 | 1196921 supersajin
supersajin's picture

i love it

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:47 | 1196955 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Umm, Umm, Umm!

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:53 | 1196326 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Sorry, pushed "flag as junk" trying to see who would do so.  Mistake.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:51 | 1196524 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You can also 'unjunk' a junk as well.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:02 | 1196360 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Junked you but still had to click.  Just so disturbing.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:50 | 1196311 Creed
Creed's picture

Classic Southern Americana.

 

classic elitist leftist snobbish boor 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 22:23 | 1198199 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

"Investors need to diversify, they need to own some real estate, they need to own some farmland, they need to own some equities, some cash, and some precious metals..."   Marc Faber —Investment analyst

 

Got real estate and farmland outside your home country yet?

http://www.thorssoncapital.weebly.com

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:37 | 1195982 Roy Bush
Roy Bush's picture

47.00!!! JP Morgan is officially out of business!!!!  What do you have to say Max?

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:23 | 1196435 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

What a lie, last time that I checked, JP Morgan Chase is fine and some hedge funds are making all the money...

 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 17:38 | 1197633 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

LOL how the fuck would you REALLY know that

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:36 | 1195993 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Wish my miners would wake up and smell the coffee!

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:38 | 1196000 uno
uno's picture

it will take buyouts to get them going

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:11 | 1196160 rocker
rocker's picture

The Morque always figures out a way to make investors squeal. If enough money goes in, they will fall on the miner short too.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:22 | 1196208 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

The miners' managements have seen from the Wall St. and London Embezzlement Industry how to make the Really Big Bucks and it ain't by digging up dirt and sifting it for a few grains of PMs.  The Really Big Bucks are made by swindling the shareholders via numerous innovative schemes.  Naked shorting, under-the-table bribes, buyouts (of management, not the small shareholder) and forcing the Wall St. dicks down the throats of the shareholder gets them very nice retirements on tropical islands.

Follow the money, if you can.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:43 | 1196287 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Exactly - very few people seem to appreciate just how far removed a small shareholding in an established gold miner is to just owning gold.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:56 | 1196540 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Umm . . the bribes would have to be pretty big (in fiat) to suppress the mining companies from taking the stuff out of the ground.  

With a market raging like this, wouldn't the first miner who feeds this demand stand to make a killing?  Wouldn't they all think this way? 

I agree that the stocks are manipulated, but not by the management themselves.  Again, why risk doing that when there is so much money to be made feeding the demand. The miners usually lag price jumps because investors want to see if price is sustainable.  I dont think the managements are 'in on' the whole price suppression scheme.

 

 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 21:25 | 1198070 nachtliche
nachtliche's picture

I'd be interested in theories why miners are lagging so far behind. Most miners are not even close to their all-time highs despite silver skyrocketing. Energy prices have risen sure, but little compared to the rise in PM's. Considering physical silver is in short supply with all the buying, you would think there would be more interest in the only people who can get more (from out of the ground). SLV is soundly outperforming most miners, and they don't exactly have all the physical they purport, yet miners sit on real reserves. Manipulation is possible sure, but that is usually on the silver price, not with the large array of mining stocks. 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 19:21 | 1199955 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

I think you hit the nail, gld and slv has siphoned off money from miner stocks. Instant gratification.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:36 | 1196266 Stares straight...
Stares straight ahead's picture

Bolivian coffee?

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:38 | 1196271 Stares straight...
Stares straight ahead's picture

Bolivian coffee?

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:48 | 1196962 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Wish my miners would awake and drink some coffee, get that ore coming up the shaft! 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 14:36 | 1204571 tomster0126
tomster0126's picture

Second that! Except for the fact that a miner died just yesterday or the day before trying so hard to get that ore for us. damn...

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 14:34 | 1204574 tomster0126
tomster0126's picture

Second that! Except for the fact that a miner died just yesterday or the day before trying so hard to get that ore for us. damn...

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:39 | 1195996 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

Blatant beauty.

 

 

Zerohedge reigns. 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:39 | 1195997 potatomafia
potatomafia's picture

Way to call the top, Tyler!  LOL, Up a buck, down a buck!

 

.. sure is interesting.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:46 | 1196029 potatomafia
potatomafia's picture

Thanks for the junk, A-hole...  Goldseek showed that it had dropped all the way back down for a minute..  now it isnt showing that anymore, so I dont know what happened..

 

But right after I read this i looked at the chart at goldseek and it was all the way back down to 46.64..  must have been a glitch.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:47 | 1196047 css1971
css1971's picture

Keep watching! Keep watching! If you look away it'll go down!

 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:52 | 1196068 potatomafia
potatomafia's picture

¿

 

I cant take a moment to check my own chart after I read this thread?? 

 

... some people are just so eager to jump to their own conclusions.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:59 | 1196107 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Mine says silver's undervalued, underbought still and is going to $100 in short order.

Must be a glitch.

...Jackasses.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:17 | 1196182 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Mine shows Apmex silver eagles for $50.20.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:06 | 1196364 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Mine shows that there will be a lot of pain for silver longs over the next couple of months.

I am betting the top gets hit this week.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:07 | 1196374 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You're betting that? How, specifically? Selling what you have, selling calls, buying puts, shorting?

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:09 | 1196390 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

Like other trolls, danger clown thinks that talking shit on a blog is "betting."  It's all he can do since he's unemployed and living in his mom's basement.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:27 | 1196439 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Is name calling all you have?  I've shared my positions, what are yours?

That's what I thought.  Pussy.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 13:56 | 1196704 55 men
55 men's picture

Your a flip flopper. First you dog everyone who owns PM's and on the other hand you say you hold PM's just in case SHTF, or that is at least what you have said. Other people do hold other investments on this site. Your opinion is not wanted anymore.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:06 | 1196759 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I am a trader.

I hold physical just in case.  But that won't stop me from going bearish on an insane move upwards.

I have a feeling my opinions will intrigue you once silver has been shattered and you are forced to recognize that maybe I do know what I am talking about.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:28 | 1196855 55 men
55 men's picture

It would have to go under $10 to hurt me...The nice thing about PM's is they are under five minutes liquid. If there is a drop it will not drop below 42.50. If you want to be heard on this site, you should try another way, rather than ripping on PM holders. 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:52 | 1196968 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

You should be fine, especially since you were early enough and no doubt have a long time frame in mind.

I have not ripped on anyone here until they ripped on me.

I merely gave my opinion that silver was going to correct.  Many people seem to have hatred for anyone who suggests such a thing.  Almost like a witch-hunt mania.  Such is the state of mind of a silver investor nowadays.  How unfortunate when it all started with the brightest people as far as I could tell.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:58 | 1197011 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

I guess if you call for a correction long enough sooner or later you'll be right.......sooner or later........right?

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 15:06 | 1197039 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

It's only been five business days that I have called for it.  Sometime this week should do it.  All that matters is that I make money.

For the record, a correction is not a pullback.  We are going to the low $30's.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 17:02 | 1197353 akak
akak's picture

It's only been five business days that I have called for it.

Sorry, you outrageous lying bastard, but you are caught in your own web of lies once again:

 

by Dangertime
on Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:47
#1158759

Those are put options that were bought (and sold, so somebody or group of somebodies made the exact opposite bet).  Honestly not a bad bet.  Silver has gotten way too frothy.  Now it's a race of how fast silver moves down versus the time decay.

  __________________________________
by Dangertime
on Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:25
#1158264

I agree.  Time to close any silver trading positions.  This is getting too crazy.

 Should be able to buy back in again sometime late summer.

______________________________

by Dangertime
on Fri, 04/08/2011 - 10:11
#1149655


Silver is up 60% in three months.  Nothing goes in a straight line folks.  This is an accident waiting to happen


Fri, 04/22/2011 - 19:42 | 1197882 Drachma
Drachma's picture

Brother, the bounce up in price is the correction.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 20:15 | 1197949 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Try some new material DangerBoy. This schtick is getting very stale.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:18 | 1196801 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

Physical silver, physical gold, PHYS, PSLV.  So fuck off.

You're still a douche and a troll. 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:24 | 1196820 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Simply because I have a different opinion.

And soon your net worth will suffer the consequences of being a closed minded asshole.

So are you going to share with us when you bought them?  Or are you still a pussy?

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:42 | 1196923 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

I don't need to disclose my basis to you or anyone, because I don't spam every PM thread with trash predictions that basically equate to "it's gone up fast so it must be a bubble."

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:54 | 1196980 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

No but you sure spam every statement I make with hatred and insults. 

You have no reasonable basis for saying that "silver must go to the moon immediately".  You have drank every ounce of kool-aid that you can find.  And I can't wait to wipe that smug attitude of yours in the mud.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:48 | 1196948 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Not because you have a different opinion.  Everyone here has different opinions.  It's because you are a filthy liar who lies about having held gold and silver in the past to try to convince other long time holders to divest themselves of physical.

Face it, idiot, we ain't falling for it.  There have been a dozen idiots with the exact same opinions as you that have come through here, and every single one has been proven wrong, whether it's Meth "$34 is the top" man, or Master "we'll never see $25" Bates.

You keep yapping on to everyone like you're some hot shot.  Guess what, you're not--you're a loser.  Your positions are down ten percent in a market where a monkey can make positive returns in stocks.  Face it, you're an idiot, wrong, and you aren't wanted here.  

Just go away.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:57 | 1196994 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

You have no clue when I bought my PM long positions.  You just choose to not believe me because it hurts your ego-investment that you have in Silver, which by your feeble estimation MUST go to the moon.

Well dipshit, it hasn't hit the moon yet and we've been in a shitty economic environment for TEN years.  Why does it have to suddenly hit it NOW?

I'm down 12% now, but that means nothing since I am dollar cost averaging and will go very green once you bag-holders run out of money buying this pig at the top.

FYI, often when you buy the bottom, you'll be red for a short period of time.  Very much like buying puts at the top.

But then, you wouldn't know that since you are not practiced like I am at identifying those time-frames.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 20:55 | 1198007 PhattyBuoy
PhattyBuoy's picture

 

 

 

"I'm down 12% now" ...

You are freakin' genius !

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 21:58 | 1198141 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lolwat?  You fucking told us the exact levels you bought at, then you fed us a BS story about how you bought your gold and silver a year apart, magically catching the bottom of both.

Also, $50 isn't "the moon"?  What are you, fucking retarded?  We are a short move from the all time nominal high.

Down 12% (you)=genius, up 320% (me)=bagholder.  Try again, moron.

Get the fuck out of here, you lying shit.  You have been found out.  Get a new user name and try again.  At least come up with a realistic and believable story.  Don't try to tell us that a fucking trader bought and held a position for 11 fucking years that just happened to take him from the LITERAL, ABSOLUTE LOW, all the way to the LITERAL, ABSOLUTE HIGH, and that you are now shorting it for the first time ever.  Fucking supertrader with a 10+ year time horizon.

 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 05:19 | 1198602 LudwigVon
LudwigVon's picture

Exactly.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:33 | 1196424 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I already have the 33, 37 and 40 october puts on SLV.  I will add more positions this week in a scaling fashion.  I doubt we'll break $50, but if we do, it will be that much harder of a fall.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:39 | 1196478 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You have SLV puts? Well what does that have to do with physical silver? Hardly anything. SLV may go up in flames, backed by nothing.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 13:50 | 1196676 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Hmmm, good point.  I did see that article and that would be a gold-mine (silver mine?) for my position.  But since they track eachother so nicely, even when silver falls from this huge run I will make a tidy profit.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:15 | 1196407 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Pretty dangerous.

Eric Sprott had an interview a couple of weeks ago on Bloomberg saying he was an agressive buyer of dips and saw $50/oz as a high for a year. (I can't find the damn video link but I remember it was about his secondary offering for PHYS and they got on the topic of silver.)

Going short before $50 would be masochistic at this point. Any pullbacks will be shallow I'd imagine.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:22 | 1196431 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

He is right that it probably won't go too far beyond $50, if it even reaches it.  This is the short of the year.  I wouldn't call them pullbacks so much as I would call it a full-blown correction back to the low $30's.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:41 | 1196483 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So youre calling for an FRN miracle shortly? How do you see that playing out, stop to QE and raising rates across the board? I dont see it, but if they do that, then hello DOW 6,500 and right back to where we started, except this time with a collapsed dollar and not enough liquidity mops in the entire world to clean it up.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 13:51 | 1196679 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Nah, those are messes and will not end well.  But this is not the end, yet.

In the meantime, silver will start the big $hit sometime very soon.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 20:24 | 1197957 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

The other ones were better at this.  You're boring.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 00:55 | 1198454 Silva Plata
Silva Plata's picture

"The other ones were better at this.  You're boring."

I agree, Mick, Danger is boring and way too transparent.

Think about it... There have been a lot of stories about paid government trolls. Danger is way to interested in saving us silver nut-jobs from ourselves to be credible.  He's a paid troll. 

On the other hand, I don't really mind him.  It's just so interesting that whoever is paying him thinks we haven't given his position its due consideration.


 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:55 | 1196542 HyperinflatmyNutts
HyperinflatmyNutts's picture

Getting real tried of all these people sh@tting on My beloved Silver!!  Wake up! Of course there will be a correction, but know one knows when.  As for now ride the wave. for all you who think it can not go higher.  Please click this link then talk to me.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 13:52 | 1196686 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I have already ridden the wave most of the wave up.

Now I'm about to jump on my surfboard and ride this wave down!

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:49 | 1196964 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Bullshit.  You rode nothing.  I called you out on your lie.  You first claimed to have bought gold and silver at the same time (by revealing their price--levels they were at for a VERY limited time), then claiming that you actually bought gold at the absolute low, then bought silver at the absolute low the next year.

Further, you didn't even know the highs and lows of 2008!  ANYONE that owned gold or silver should have had those numbers burned into their hearts and minds.  But you didn't.  Because you didn't own them.  Liar.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 15:02 | 1197004 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Who said I didn't know the highs and lows of 2008?

Keep making shit up.  Your ego-investment cannot help but blind you.  It is so very sad.  Maybe the wakeup call over the next few months will help with that.  Although I doubt it.

I did buy my first gold in June of 2000.  I remember because I had ridden ELON during the tech mania from $7 to $113 and was an idiot that did not sell it until ~$60.  Missed a lot of money there but you can bet I learned a lot about picking tops/bottoms and identifying a mania.  So take your fvcking lies and shove it.  I warned you and you refuse to see.  Go down with the fvcking ship.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 15:07 | 1197044 medicalstudent
medicalstudent's picture

how hasnt japan changed silver fundamentals?

 

onus.

 

well see

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 15:51 | 1197283 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

Fundamentally silver's story is not much different.  It is in a clear bull market.

The problem with most investors is that they cannot separate the fundamentals from short-term movements.

Short-term it is all about the emotion, long-term it is all about the fundamentals.  One can clearly see the short-term emotional bubble by perusing the vicious attacks on me for suggesting that silver can also go down.  Tragic.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 16:25 | 1197398 akak
akak's picture

Dangerclown, you are NOTHING but a pro-bankster shill, and with your every disingenuous and LYING post you just dig the hole of your non-credibility that you are in that much deeper.

You keep trying to peddle the lie that what we are experiencing with gold and silver today is just another routine market cycle, when anyone with their eyes half-open can clearly see that it is the death of the current fiat monetary system that is in fact occurring.  But keep on trying to spread your pro-status-quo disinformation, asshole --- nobody is buying what you are trying to sell here.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 19:23 | 1197844 knowless
knowless's picture

many people here suggest that silver can in fact go down, temporarily, your supposed persecution for your "beliefs" only comes because you are one of many who doesn't ever address the underlying trends that are pushing silver up, hence the attacks, you deflect by claiming persecution, instead of showing your reasoning for why silver will hit lows and not recover... the price of silver in weinmar marks is still at it's peak, what irrefutable global trends can you point to with evidence that we aren't facing such a scenario?

 

you sight "a clear bull market" and emotional factors, but neglect the underlying issues which create these factors, why is that?

 

full disclosure, I own about 3 silver dimes, and a quarter, and am in no place to invest in any paper market... not everyone here is an investor, and claiming that you are top dog jesus man, just makes you sound like a fucking tool.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 19:32 | 1197859 akak
akak's picture

... you cite "a clear bull market" and emotional factors, but neglect the underlying issues which create these factors, why is that?

Bingo! 

Thanks for helping make my point about this deceptive and disingenuous bastard, knowless.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 22:03 | 1198148 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You did, you dumb shit.  Remember, you tried to admonish us by telling us about the time it fell "from $14 to $8".  

Take your moronic lies and get out, troll.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 15:56 | 1197310 stuman
stuman's picture

Thx for the link :)

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 23:41 | 1198351 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

LOL yeah you said that last week too

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:58 | 1196105 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Troll desperation is obvious.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:09 | 1196380 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ive heard these silver sourpusses saying for 8 weeks now that theyre betting silver goes down. But I havent heard any reports yet about how their bets have done...apparently they just keep moving the goal posts around.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:26 | 1196436 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I'm on record as having bought my first puts on Friday last week.  So far my bets are red, but that won't be for too long.  Especially since I keep buying more puts as the price makes new insane highs.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:44 | 1196494 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OK so how do you see this soon to be 'FRN resurrection' taking form exactly? Ben announces end of QE and raising all rates? Im not holding my breath, the Maniacal Monetizers know 1 thing- hit it with a bigger monetizing hammer. 

Hey if youve got some other insight as to how a miraclulous reversal to their 3 years of print and pump action takes place, I'd love to hear it.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 13:57 | 1196702 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

The chairsatan is quite powerful.  The FRN will die, but it has a lot of fight yet. 

Silver has had a couple of very strong rounds, but now we get to see the real battle.  I do not doubt that silver will win in the long run, but that victory is years ahead still. 

For now, the dollar has to fight back with serious strength for a round or two, if at the least to keep the empire from crumbling for just a little bit longer.  Do not confuse this for a "pullback".  Once silver peaks, it will be another year at the least before it touches that peak again.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 16:33 | 1197420 akak
akak's picture

The PM-bashing trolls like this dangerclown are getting a bit more sophisticated in their disingenuous half-truths and pro-status-quo disinformation, but no less obvious nonetheless.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 19:27 | 1197853 I only kill chi...
I only kill chickens and wheat's picture

My Silver is on it's way down, it's really down. Since I moved it from the top shelf to the floor. It's insurance, I don't care where it is in FRN's

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 20:01 | 1197931 akak
akak's picture

Nice one!

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 22:03 | 1198157 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yup, mine crashed when the safe got so heavy it fell through the floor into the basement.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 14:38 | 1204593 tomster0126
tomster0126's picture

i'm keeping my silver until i die...my guess is that the rate will be at $100 by 2050, and I want my grandkids to be rich!

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 23:43 | 1198357 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

LOL yeah dangerclown vs Jim Rogers - You say it is going down Rogers says triple digits. History and (his) experience means you will lose somewhere between 95-100% IMO

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:44 | 1196497 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Silver is at insane highs'...based upon what? A strong FRN? Its been unfairly beaten down in your opinion or what?

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 13:27 | 1196623 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

1 ounce silver = 3 kilo lambmeat.

 

 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 13:38 | 1196642 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

Where are the international spot prices on the internet? Kitco gives only yesterday's numbers. Any suggestions...

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 16:43 | 1197454 doggings
doggings's picture

bit late now, but this one runs all the time except weekends

http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

I nearly shat when it exploded up a $dollar in 2 minuutes today, thought the comex had blown up or something :)

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:43 | 1196498 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Insane relative to past inflation adjusted prices? Insane relative to global demand?

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:55 | 1196535 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

In Hunt Bros era inflation adjustment and CPI scoring from back then silver should be at about $300 today.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:58 | 1196553 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

At the time of the Hunts the number of FRN's in circulation were overbacked(!) by the putative gold in Ft. Knox, i.e  1.2 $ of gold for every FRN....Classic blow off top of a bubble....current ratio is about 0.15.

The Ag/Au blowoff were concurrent....

 

CPI adjustment gives silver at about $115...IIRC

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 15:08 | 1197050 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

The link to this "Great Correction" article is actually about it correcting to the true historical ratio of 17:1.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:11 | 1196159 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

it was a real time adjustment in their suppression and controlled growth algorithms ... pay no mind to the man behind the curtain.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:20 | 1196193 French Frog
French Frog's picture

i have to say that junking potatomafia was silly, as i saw the same thing on goldseek + on my trading platform and it's happened again now at 11.06 (on both); let's stick to facts about what is going on rather than name calling

http://chartupload.com/images/63614048288614377516.png

(click on small image to magnify it)

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:30 | 1196235 potatomafia
potatomafia's picture

Thank you frog.. I was just having a little fun with the wild price fluctuations...  and you are right, it has done it again.

 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:15 | 1196170 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

sour grapes ZSL bag holder...

 

hows that reverse split workin for ya?

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:03 | 1196355 Badabing
Badabing's picture

I have a brother that works on WS he was invited to ring the opening bell a couple of times. he’s a computer geek that works on Algorithms and sub routines for the gods. “Worked on the circuit breaker stuff and such”. I asked him what’s up with the spikes when you watch the tic’s? he explained that the spikes are feelers that test the movements, for example if the market is going parabolic up the feelers will look like stalactites pointing down the spike is a standard amount of selling how long the spike is determines how much short selling is needed to regulate the volatility. But a funny thing happened last night. The Asian markets every night this week sold on the open and bought on the close. Probably sell paper and buy physical, but last night the selloff never happened and the downward spikes stopped and started pointing up like stalagmites. It looks like Kitco’s graph for silver stopped on the top of a feeler.

It is amazing this thing we call technology and manipulation.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 15:54 | 1197297 greenbear
greenbear's picture

.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:41 | 1196009 umop episdn
umop episdn's picture

Comrade Long Argentum or Comrade Short Bucky, take your pick! You can haz b0tH!

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:41 | 1196011 aVian
aVian's picture

where can you see the trade price...I usually use apmex and the us markets are closed

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:44 | 1196023 potatomafia
Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:06 | 1196135 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Disclosure: I don't trade.

Ok, I am a bit befuddled. Kitco shows 46.68 and looks ... closed. Yet I see here that the price shot to 47+. I see the price on GoldSeek is showing the 47-ish spot (thanks for the link)!

Question: what is the disconnect? I can't tell if this was presented as a glitch or if some outlets (kitco) arent updating while others (goldseek) are. I know markets in various places continue to trade outside the LME and COMEX, but just looking for some more background...

Thanks,

Cooter

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:22 | 1196206 Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

24hgold shows it though why kidco doesn't is anybody's conspiracy theory

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:27 | 1196224 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Kitco is likely set up to only take the feed from COMEX and GLOBEX trading, which incorporates data from all other markets (via arbitrage) when they are open.  When they aren't, the feeds will be spotty an unreliable.

Interestingly, APMEX still shows the same price as Kitco, so you could make some paper off of buying from them, knowing that the real spot price is higher.  It won't totally deplete the premium, but it will take a good chunk of it.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:54 | 1196318 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

UK and US on holiday, but the asians are still trading.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:07 | 1196369 beastie
beastie's picture

Thebulliondesk.com is always live

(The kitco thing got me this morning as well)

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 15:10 | 1197071 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

World market is still open for another 2 hours.

http://www.kitco.com/market/

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 11:06 | 1196134 Stormdancer
Stormdancer's picture

Play around with this one a bit and you'll find a lot more than just gold and silver prices.  Some quotes are delayed 15 min...

 

http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-rates-foreign-e...

 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 10:39 | 1196013 Inibo E. Exibo
Inibo E. Exibo's picture

I'm happy.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 12:59 | 1196555 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

I'm not. Bought silver at $12 and sold at $22...SHIT, fuck me a running. Never thought I would see silver pushing $50...shit shit shit.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 14:54 | 1196982 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

You can't be serious rusty. 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 16:06 | 1197334 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hahaha!  rusty can go either way.  this has some poignant sincerity, too!  if someone meets his investment goals, ya gotsta pull the trigger.  also, we learn from our mistakes.  ouch!?  $22 not a long time ago. 

in rough terms, silver = money.  not paper.  no counterparty risk.  game set match.  this isn't your father's silver market, anymore. 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!