Holiday, No Holiday, Doesn't Matter: Silver Still Up By A Buck

Tyler Durden's picture

Not content with rising by a dollar during all recent regular work days, silver is now up a buck on a holiday. Doesn't make much sense, but we'll take it.

And for something actually relevant, below is yesterday's Gold options reports from FMX Connect, whose calls so far have been spot on.

Summary

June Gold settled at $1503.80 per troy ounce, a gain of $4.90 for the day. Gold continued to trend higher ahead of a long, holiday weekend. Options trading was steady and a continuation of yesterday’s activity. Volatility was slightly lower going into a long weekend.

Commentary & Analysis:

Today’s futures activity was a repeat of yesterday’s. The options activity also mirrored yesterday but at a lower volume of interest. In this article, we’d like to lay out what we think will happen to gold over the next 6 days. Before we do let’s discuss the futures activity. Today, as in the last 4 or 5 days, the market was very orderly. It traded new all-time highs overnight. While futures came in higher on the Comex, they traded in a  tight range, approaching but never piercing the overnight high. The range has consistently been between 1495 and 1507. Every day it moves up a couple dollars. Today it was 1500-1510, with most of the day spent between 1501-1507. We’ve seen this behavior before. When you combine this activity with a big holiday weekend and a specific type of options open interest you have a setup for a $20 move higher.

There were 6800 lots of open interest in the May 1500 call going into today and  interest has remained at that level for some time. Market making firms and locals are long, while banks are playing from the short side. Banks have the deeper pockets and one might assume that the strike will be pinned if he is a student of history. And so here we are, hovering around the strike, ripe for a pin.

Enter the May 1520 call buyer. Over the last 3 days large volumes of the 1520 call have been purchased. with approximately 6400 contracts trading on Tuesday alone, almost all of them purchased near the days’ lows. These are not impulsive buys; on the contrary, they seem well thought out. We believe the long is strong and once the May 1500 gravity is broken, as is happening slowly, a nice pop in the market will occur. Finally, take note of the market’s opening schedule reposted here and its implications for futures liquidity:

•    April 21st, Holy Thursday: day before a holiday
•    April 22nd: Good Friday: CME Closed
•    April 23rd,Easter Saturday: Markets Closed
•    April 24th,Easter Sunday: Markets Closed
•    April 25th, Easter Monday: LME Closed (Largest Physical Bullion Exchange Worldwide)
•    April 26th, Tuesday: May Options Expiration CME

While everyone we speak with is worried about the 1500 strike being pinned we think the 1520 is more significant. If we go to the 1520 strike money will change hands in a spectacular fashion, whether we pin it, progress through, or fail.

As for the other months, August calls were bid, specifically the 1600 strike. This was a different type of buyer from the 1700 call buyer yesterday but both were bullish. June calls were also bid but found sellers in the futures selloff and never quite recovered. August, however, remained firm. June at-the-money options were lower from two types of sellers, retail liquidating 1500 calls for a profit and speculative bulls selling naked puts the 1500-1480 area. As stated many times before, if this market continues to bid call skew then puts will have to give up, and we are finally starting to see that in the December 1300-1200 area. There were sellers of the December 1200 put in outright and spread form today. If this continues we will have seen the continuation of the skew transformation. Finally, December 1700 and 1800 calls are untouchable.

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Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

"You gonna do some prayin' for me boy. And you better pray good."

http://www.discdish.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Deliverance.jpg

Classic Southern Americana.

66Sexy's picture

something to do with china?

wanklord's picture

Can someone elaborate on the following article?

Rumor: China To Revalue Yuan 10% This Weekend?
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=184595
Just stated on CNBC.

I have no way to judge that, but if it comes it is both good and bad.

The good: It’s about a third of what has to happen, and as a step function it would apply major cooling to the “Chinese miracle” inflation machine. They need to do that too, which makes the rumor plausible. Coming on a long trading weekend here (Good Friday/Passover closes us this week) and on a weekend anyway (China’s favored time to do this sort of thing) it would be appropriate both in terms of timing and event.

The bad: While there would be no direct dollar impact from this action since the Yuan is not convertible and thus not part of the $DXY index the indirect effects would be tremendously disruptive in the short term. This has a high probability of forcing corrective actions by The Fed, perhaps even before the futures market reopens Sunday night. The risk for The Fed and United States is that the dollar winds up gapping down by hundreds of pips, perhaps threatening the all-time low. Violation of the all-time low could result in massive pressing of short bets and a possible immediate fiscal crisis.

Please don’t take this article the wrong way – I strongly support a Chinese action such as this, even though it’s not enough on its own. The move in the dollar today may be related to this rumor and expectation of action over the weekend.

Beware coming into the weekend with this rumor out there; volatility is, in my opinion, radically cheap against reality and the complacency being displayed by the market is flat-out ridiculous.

Ahmeexnal's picture

Silver only costs $5USD an ounce. MethMan said so.

He's a genius because he drives a Ferrari and has "Math" as part of his name.

 

/sark ozy off

tomster0126's picture

lol. Ferrari mathman's too busy speeding in his replica to realize his spending power is completely diminished.

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

SheepDog-One's picture

AW someone doesnt like Deliverance this morning...I guess Mathman, Spalding and Robo must have dropped by.

Obummer's picture

Ladies and gentlemen, fellow Americans, good citizens of the world. Much talk has been made about the increasing value of silver on today's markets.  And while I would love to tell you that this is another sign that our free market is strong and vital, I cannot. At my request the Federal Reserve has looked into the cause of these price increases.  Folks, they were shocked to find that speculation in the silver markets is the cause. Apparently these speculators make bets that the cost of silver will continue to go up. Because speculators are not willing to take delivery of physical silver this causes the price to actually increase. As you can see, this is a nefarious scheme.

This high cost of silver is a grave threat to our nation, to our ability to win the future. For instance, most Americans may not realize that each cruise missle we use in Libya has around fifteen kilograms of silver in it. This means that our humanitarian mission to restore democracy in Libya is held hostage by these high silver prices.  This is not right. This is not the America I love. Let me be clear; I will not allow this speculation to continue. I will not allow those with wealth to exploit hard-working Americans in this way. Not as long as I am president.

Some say that silver price increases may be due to my administration's policy of dollar value deflation. I am here to tell you that these claims are just plain wrong. Not only that, they are dangerous to our way of life. For behind this rise in silver are the very terrorists we have been fighting against for so long.  And now these terrorist organizations have infiltrated the very heart of America, and are in our living rooms and our bedrooms even as I speak.  Rest assured that I will do everything in my power as President of this great nation to repel this threat to our ways, and that in the coming months we shall take decisive action against this new menace to our financial stability and Constitutional law.  We will protect democracy around the world.  We will win the future.

Thank you, good night, and God bless America.

TIMMAYYY's picture

thank you oh great leader...for a second there I thought something was wrong.

 

I shall sing your praises in my prayers.

Aghast in Midlothian's picture

I take all the junks as a sign that there are still Obama voters who are unable to come to grips with the fact that the guy is a horrible president and worse leader. Either that, or the paid pre-election Trolls are mounting up for the November 2012 event

SuperRay's picture

what's scary about this speech is that it could actually be delivered by telOpromter...

6_7_42's picture

+100 man I could hear the hopeful one and it made me afraid.  Frak me!

medicalstudent's picture

who leaked it.

 ag price event 2011

 

 

MrBoompi's picture

At 15kg silver per cruise missile, this comes to about 100 troy oz per missile. If we say the price is $50/troy oz, today's cost is $5000 of silver per missile. If silver goes to $100/troy ounce, the cost per missile doubles to $10,000.

But the cost of a cruise missile is $1mm. So the cost increase is a measley .5%, hardly a matter of national security.

Unless you're JPM of course.

Sabremesh's picture

15kg (@32.15 ozt/kg) is actually 482 troy ounces.

Sudden Debt's picture

Anybody who ows it, can tell you in a blink of a eye how manny ounce 1 kilo is :)

 

BESIDES GOOGLE!!

1 ounce = 28.3495231 grams

http://www.google.nl/#q=ounce+grammes&bih=953&biw=2105&fp=7b7b3990dd41de64&hl=nl

 

 

Gigliola Cinquetti's picture

google is right about that , try googleing "troy ounce"

there fix it for ya

mojine's picture
1 troy ounce = 31.1034768 grams

Precious metals such as gold and silver are sold by the troy ounce.

32.15 OZT in a Kilogram


Votewithabullet's picture

Anybody who owns it can tell  you the wrong answer. Fucking doh.

That Peak Oil Guy's picture

Raw materials costs have a tendency to escalate through the military supply chain, so that silver is probably a bigger component of the total cost than it seems based on the price for the raw material.  Remember the military's $600 toilet seats?

http://conservativenewjersey.com/how-a-toilet-seat-can-cost-600

TPOG

-Michelle-'s picture

Truly.  Considering that this is the government, they're probably buying ASEs from the Mint at 3x spot (plus premium and shipping and handling), shipping them to China to be melted down, shipping them back, and then putting them in the missiles.

StychoKiller's picture

Allow me to explain those $700 (not $500) hammers (toilet seats, whatever!) to you, then you can decide better about the wisdom of a large Federal Govt.  Military Contractor gets MIL-SPECs from the Pentagon on just how the hammer is to perform, and how to test it to ensure conformance to the MIL-SPECs.  The Pentagon cuts a procurement order for hammers.  Contractor goes out and buys $15 hammers, tests a statistical sample of them to verify their conformance to the MIL-SPECs.  In the process of doing so, a two-foot high stack of paper gets generated so that the Military Contractor and the Pentagon can prove to the US Congress that the People are not getting less hammer than the Military requires to do the job.  In short, $15 hammer + Two-Foot stack of paper = $700.  Now then, who do we string up here?

ultarnerd's picture

Bit to add here, I used to always prefer military
components for my electronics projects here in
Canada as I wanted parts that would work well
outside in the cold here and just to be more
reliable as I have respect for quality. I
am embarrassed to buy into name brand scams
only meant to charge more money to
the sheeple more for the same !@#$.
But in the end the markups can be
ridiculous.Ever try to buy gold from a lab supply
company selling to local high schools etc you
will end up paying about 5 times more over spot.
I expect the whole medical
industry is similar.I usually scrongs junk yard stuff and
you usualy find that industrial and militry stuff
is usually of very high quality compared to
consumer stuff.Got some old Phone industry
relays where
the relays contacts were about 22k solid gold
worth ( guessing from memory now) more
than 10.00 each just for the gold
at market value.Nearly cried when a worker told me
he threw thousands of these away while telling me
he made a few hundred in copper.
I only buy scarce uncommon stuff on ebay now.

nufio's picture

maybe this will trigger a conflict between the MIC and the financial industry.

Xibalba's picture

don't freak me out like that!

thames222's picture

You should be freaking out!  Buy seeds and any arable land you can, collapse is inevitable and we're not going to have any good sources of food left.  have you read McCarthy's "The road," or seen the movie version with Viggo Mortenson?  

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Exposer of Internet Shills's picture

You're hired!

 

Mohammed Ahem  Moroni

WH hiring management

Hugh G Rection's picture

Obummer- I really enjoy your sarcastic perspective.

The sad thing is the validity of the nonsense you spew in the eyes or the msm sheeple. Turds blog this morning talks about OReilly throwing MaObama a bone last night and going after the speculators. Fuck me the morons need to wake up.

End the MotherFucking FED!

thames222's picture

End the Fed! End the Fed! End the Fed! Hugh, thoughts on forming a Facebook group or other campaign to organize people in a massive protest against Bernutty and the rest of the goons?

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

SheepDog-One's picture

In summary, according to Barry the illegal alien Kenyan... 'If youre holding silver, youre kinda a terrorist'.

Thank you and good evening, winning the future.

Michael's picture

There's no more fucking silver on the store shelves to buy you stupid fucking moron President Obama. Blame Econ101 and your stupid banksters for destroying the currency.

Hephasteus's picture

No problem. They'll just create a silver from nothing czar.

 

 

 

 

to replace the one we destroyed...

BeanusCountus's picture

Sorry, pushed "flag as junk" trying to see who would do so.  Mistake.

SheepDog-One's picture

You can also 'unjunk' a junk as well.

Re-Discovery's picture

Junked you but still had to click.  Just so disturbing.

Creed's picture

Classic Southern Americana.

 

classic elitist leftist snobbish boor 

Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

"Investors need to diversify, they need to own some real estate, they need to own some farmland, they need to own some equities, some cash, and some precious metals..."   Marc Faber —Investment analyst

 

Got real estate and farmland outside your home country yet?

http://www.thorssoncapital.weebly.com

Roy Bush's picture

47.00!!! JP Morgan is officially out of business!!!!  What do you have to say Max?

What does it all mean's picture

What a lie, last time that I checked, JP Morgan Chase is fine and some hedge funds are making all the money...

 

UninterestedObserver's picture

LOL how the fuck would you REALLY know that

yabyum's picture

Wish my miners would wake up and smell the coffee!

uno's picture

it will take buyouts to get them going

rocker's picture

The Morque always figures out a way to make investors squeal. If enough money goes in, they will fall on the miner short too.

FeralSerf's picture

The miners' managements have seen from the Wall St. and London Embezzlement Industry how to make the Really Big Bucks and it ain't by digging up dirt and sifting it for a few grains of PMs.  The Really Big Bucks are made by swindling the shareholders via numerous innovative schemes.  Naked shorting, under-the-table bribes, buyouts (of management, not the small shareholder) and forcing the Wall St. dicks down the throats of the shareholder gets them very nice retirements on tropical islands.

Follow the money, if you can.

A Man without Qualities's picture

Exactly - very few people seem to appreciate just how far removed a small shareholding in an established gold miner is to just owning gold.

Re-Discovery's picture

Umm . . the bribes would have to be pretty big (in fiat) to suppress the mining companies from taking the stuff out of the ground.  

With a market raging like this, wouldn't the first miner who feeds this demand stand to make a killing?  Wouldn't they all think this way? 

I agree that the stocks are manipulated, but not by the management themselves.  Again, why risk doing that when there is so much money to be made feeding the demand. The miners usually lag price jumps because investors want to see if price is sustainable.  I dont think the managements are 'in on' the whole price suppression scheme.