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Holiday, No Holiday, Doesn't Matter: Silver Still Up By A Buck
Not content with rising by a dollar during all recent regular work days, silver is now up a buck on a holiday. Doesn't make much sense, but we'll take it.
And for something actually relevant, below is yesterday's Gold options reports from FMX Connect, whose calls so far have been spot on.
Summary
June Gold settled at $1503.80 per troy ounce, a gain of $4.90 for the day. Gold continued to trend higher ahead of a long, holiday weekend. Options trading was steady and a continuation of yesterday’s activity. Volatility was slightly lower going into a long weekend.
Commentary & Analysis:
Today’s futures activity was a repeat of yesterday’s. The options activity also mirrored yesterday but at a lower volume of interest. In this article, we’d like to lay out what we think will happen to gold over the next 6 days. Before we do let’s discuss the futures activity. Today, as in the last 4 or 5 days, the market was very orderly. It traded new all-time highs overnight. While futures came in higher on the Comex, they traded in a tight range, approaching but never piercing the overnight high. The range has consistently been between 1495 and 1507. Every day it moves up a couple dollars. Today it was 1500-1510, with most of the day spent between 1501-1507. We’ve seen this behavior before. When you combine this activity with a big holiday weekend and a specific type of options open interest you have a setup for a $20 move higher.
There were 6800 lots of open interest in the May 1500 call going into today and interest has remained at that level for some time. Market making firms and locals are long, while banks are playing from the short side. Banks have the deeper pockets and one might assume that the strike will be pinned if he is a student of history. And so here we are, hovering around the strike, ripe for a pin.
Enter the May 1520 call buyer. Over the last 3 days large volumes of the 1520 call have been purchased. with approximately 6400 contracts trading on Tuesday alone, almost all of them purchased near the days’ lows. These are not impulsive buys; on the contrary, they seem well thought out. We believe the long is strong and once the May 1500 gravity is broken, as is happening slowly, a nice pop in the market will occur. Finally, take note of the market’s opening schedule reposted here and its implications for futures liquidity:
• April 21st, Holy Thursday: day before a holiday
• April 22nd: Good Friday: CME Closed
• April 23rd,Easter Saturday: Markets Closed
• April 24th,Easter Sunday: Markets Closed
• April 25th, Easter Monday: LME Closed (Largest Physical Bullion Exchange Worldwide)
• April 26th, Tuesday: May Options Expiration CME
While everyone we speak with is worried about the 1500 strike being pinned we think the 1520 is more significant. If we go to the 1520 strike money will change hands in a spectacular fashion, whether we pin it, progress through, or fail.
As for the other months, August calls were bid, specifically the 1600 strike. This was a different type of buyer from the 1700 call buyer yesterday but both were bullish. June calls were also bid but found sellers in the futures selloff and never quite recovered. August, however, remained firm. June at-the-money options were lower from two types of sellers, retail liquidating 1500 calls for a profit and speculative bulls selling naked puts the 1500-1480 area. As stated many times before, if this market continues to bid call skew then puts will have to give up, and we are finally starting to see that in the December 1300-1200 area. There were sellers of the December 1200 put in outright and spread form today. If this continues we will have seen the continuation of the skew transformation. Finally, December 1700 and 1800 calls are untouchable.
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I like your analysis Flakmiester. I'm selling some silver monday or tuesday ahead of the Fed meeting. Just a hunch but with the long weekend and the exchange schedules, dollar weakness and the press briefing from the Bernanke it seems like a good chance for some contrarian action in the near future. Also price may ease after the contract rolls if there is any validity to the idea that the hedgies are pushing the Comex for a premium for not taking delivery. There are to many days for bankster collusion while the markets are closed for some nefarious plans to be hatched. Maybe I'm a paranoid conspiracy theorist but it seems like a good time for a bear raid.
Perfect time for a raid.... I sold some covered calls against my postitions this week....will cover them if things pull back, otherwise I'll get called out an acceptable price....
For example, I loaded up on 1000 shares of First Majestic at 24.50 on 4/15 but simultaneously sold
3 x May 25 for 1.95
3 x July 25 for 3.30
4 x Oct 30 for 2.50
Unless the Ag completely implodes, I like the looks of this going forward even though I down slightly at present...
Sold July 50 SLV calls against my Jan 2012 25 SLV calls...
Nice strategy. Nothing so complex here. I have a deliverable bar I picked up a couple of years ago at 9.60. This sale will go a long ways toward me being debt free and still leaves me with most of my stash. After that it is BTFD. Good luck with your trade.
as franklin sanders might say,
go long
stay longer....
One problem for the miners is extraction cost which is energy-intensive and thus sensitive to crude price. Another is hedges against their production which can commit their product at a lower-than-spot sales price. A third is bad location - anywhere in Africa, most anywhere in South America very questionable right now. I don't and will not own miners.
I know a guy who runs a mine here in Cripple Creek Colorado, he tells me nothing is more operating cost sensitive than running those giant mining machines all day. 1 tire for 1 of those loaders costs $35,000, and they get about 1/4 mile to the gallon.
But Math man says it only costs $5 to dig it out of the ground.
You have to do the DD to find out who is hedged and who is not--and many are indeed zero hedged. Although recently it hasn't been worth the work and risk, I think it will be soon. If you could find, for instance, a company with an open gravel pit gold mine under development where the cost may have been $250/oz last year and now is $400/oz you still have a fat, fat margin more than preserved.
Some other thoughts:
There are serious distortions in the mining sector -- generally thought to be a hedge fund short miners, long metal spread play. I have no way to confirm this or know when it will end.
M&A is cranking up in this sector -- deals are being worked out now as the big boys need resources and the cheapest way to get them is buy explorers/juniors. The HUI looks ripe for a good move. I like the sector on a selective basis.
Indeed. If prices for the PM's keep going up the triggers will be pulled sooner than we think.
Miners aren't going up, because of the fear that mines will be confiscated. This lowers the value of mining stock and raises tha value of the metal.
No conspiracy here, besides confiscation.
That's crazy. The day you see mines confiscated is the day your nation ceases to be a democracy. Mine confiscation is unconstitutional.
The reason miners haven't caught up in price is that the hedge funds haven't raised stock price targets accordingly to the rise in silver.
You forget where most of these mines are located. Central and South America are on the High Speed Socialism train.
"Mine confiscation is unconstitutional."
Do you know what the constitution says in Bolivia? It says whatever Evo says it says.
Get your head out of your USA-centric asshole.
This is the only Tyler Durden wannabe that spouts bankster (CIA/NED/USAID) propaganda on his Twitter feed (Syria "human rights" manipulation).
Weak!
WHOA!! ... what a fucking raid!!
47.60 to 46.65 in under a minute.
Still 47.67 here.
Ignore kitco--they don't get international feeds.
Would the 30 pieces of physical settlement of Judas's long Silver futures contract by the Sanhedrins have any influence on this today?
I don't understand what particular instrument Tyler's graph is depicting. (Sorry, i dont have a bloomberg.) on kitco and on my forex account silver is aroud 46.7/46.8ish. where is this 47.7 coming from? is this comex futures or something?
US markets are closed so your charts won't reflect it. You need to look at non-US prices in markets that are open today.
Ah, thanks. makes sense. silverprice.org has live prices. kitco must only show US markets.
...it sure has spiked enough to poke someone's ass.
As a Christian, the betrayal of Christ by Judas for 30 pieces of silver weighs on me today more than most. At $1,400, or any price in today's context, I hope I would act differently.
Back when I had just started buying physical I began purchasing ten coins at a time to get used to the process. After three rounds I realized I had 30 pieces of silver and figured I needed to either get rid of it or buy a lot more. Thankfully I did the latter :)
Buy 30 pieces of silver and betray satan.
The Gospel of Judas gives a interesting viewpoint
Judas was manipulated by a crooked bunch of Jewish bankers.
From my point of view, Judas had no choice but to play that role or else there is no 'Passion'.
For doing what he had to do by fate, he is somehow consigned to eternal damnation by the very God who made him do it? Not my understanding of Divinity.
These things must comes to pass, but woe be unto him through whom they are accomplished.
@ gaoptimize,
Yes, I hope I would act differently too...
up, down, up, down.
trading between $47.93 and $47.63 @ 8:38am (PST)
http://www.goldshark.com/
Yesterday at work a friend came up to me and asked if I had seen the price of gold, and told me that it was the next bubble. I laughed and said yeah, I know the price of gold is above $1500 now, and no it isn't in a bubble. He said why not, and I asked him if he knew anyone (besides me) who has any gold. He said, well, uhhh, dahhh, no, but SOMEONE'S buying or else it wouldn't be going this high. I said yes, people in China and India are buying with all the dollars they want to dump.
Basically when everyone is screaming "bubble!" you know the biggest ramp up is yet to come, before those same idiots are the last ones in, at the highest price.
Also at work there is a little old lady who has been buying silver for 20+ years. She was telling me about all of her grandkids and she used to give them a silver eagle for Christmas in their stocking, now she said she won't be giving them away anymore! I think she said she has like a tube of eagles every year from 1986-2009, but the last 2 years she said she couldn't afford it anymore and was now starting to collect the newer pennies and dollar coins.
Proper asset allocation and diversification is the key to success at trading or investing. All you guys who are overweight silver need to be careful.
Nothing wrong with swapping out some silver for another asset that is in a bull market.
Just sayin......
And what do you think is going to be in a bull market during a currency and sovereign debt crisis? Because you know goddamn well we aren't on the cusp of some economic boom like the trolling comments you typically make with your moonshot equity charts.
LOL, youve been claiming youll sell/short silver since it was around $28, 'top is in' claimed by you every day since then, you big bullshitter.
Yea you do that RainbowTrader, swap in your silver for something else in a 'bull market' demominated entirely in collapsing Federal Reserve Notes.
Yeah and now he is claiming he owns physical PM's- fucking lying troll
Which bull is stronger?
The printing-press driven stock market or the fundamentally driven silver market?
Diversification is one of the oldest investment scams utilized by the commercial investment industry to bilk clients out of their money!
Actually, I think Robot is right. I plan to swap SOME silver for Au (or Pt if I can find it). Silver has had a BIG RUN. It has moved too fast for me (and we have been too busy doing other stuff for me to make it to the coin shop), else I would already have made the exchange before now.
GSR about 32.5 now.
Smart ZH-er tekhneek says price of silver may wind up higher than gold. Maybe. tekhneek also says to get rich rather than take profits, which I agree with.
But, I am going to exchange some Ag for Au (or Pt) as soon as I can.
...
Pigs get slaughtered.
I converted my first tranche on the 15th. Just a little slice, but it was silver I bought when the ratio was 72. The trade was made when the ratio was 35 and I realized a ratio of 37.23 after transaction costs.
Left some on the table .... and don't regret it a bit. What would have been about 9 oz of gold is now 16.1 oz.
I'll take it :)
I also traded big ugly industrial blocks of silver for internationally recognized gold coins...which is relief. I won't buy any more big bars unless I somehow get a whole lot more money to put into silver than I can realistically imagine now.
Yes, let's all follow the advise of a loser who does nothing but lose purchasing power for himself and anyone who listens to him.
Paper is trash. Get over it already.
Friday morning, done for the week of a part time job that turned into a full time, can I get off the rollercoaster job. just logged in to say I'm 3 sheets and had some good chuckles from the above. Been getting my 93 yr old Mom in law spending her SS checks on silver. Still don't know when were getting out. I'm in since $9. Enjoy the weekend.
Last Year my Boss told me I was crazy after telling him Silver would go to $50.00. He told me he would not see $50.00 Silver in his lifetime, then he told me that he would "Kiss my Ass" if it did. This week I asked him if he wanted to kiss the left or right cheek! Then someone in the room mentioned seeing that I posted a $1000.00 Silver price prediction Video on my Facebook page. My Boss almost told me he would Kiss my Ass AGAIN but hesitated! This guy really needs to quit eating at McDonalds!
Several videos are out now predicting $1,000 Silver. All those video producers predicted $50 Silver in 2012....
It wouldn't surprise me one bit. It could happen so fast that "retail" gets left in the dust... even happen without the drastic ill effects people believe. The fraudulent economy would continue, media may patronize those who failed to see a most obvious trade... touts industrial/technological benefits, high metal prices regarded as "self-evident", banks positioned for the move make "bank", never truly a bubble pop as its measured value as an international currency becomes, to some degree, standardized, and millionaires become billionaires yet again.
Then, once the train is out of sight...
a famous quote and scene is repeated on zh
"now you's can't leave"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2PXb7xKhcI
Wouldn't surprise me at all of US retail is left in the dust or rather buried in the shit they've been fed by MSM.
in my opinion, silver will keep on going to over $65 before we see any correction; 20%, 40%?, who knows....I can feel this silver market gaining momentum week after week, and seriously $50 will not be a great resistance...after the correction, summer time, Silver's next target will be over $100, and don't surprise to see it by the beginning of 2012...Silver is indeed the mother of the all bull markets.
Diego Campagnolo.
Silver is headed to $1,000 an ounce. Soon after it will become infinite as the Bank janitorial service dumps paper FRN's in the dumpster.
Seems we need to stop thinking of what $ denominated prices silver will go to. Dollar is going down. How far down not sure. Zero?
Think of silver in purchasing power...a suit, a home, the like.
What a silver eagle bought 10 yrs ago, today, 10 yrs hence.
A Gallon of gasoline now costs one 90% Silver dime....
dollar is down but still current world currency. Even if dollar restart backed on some metals and others commodities still we will have to give value to metals in terms of "new dollar". While $1,000 silver is a little extreme, I can say is not a crazy target. Silver bull market is base on fundamentals; supply, demand and the sense of protest against corrupt bank system....dollar down is a plus, but even if dollar is not down, silver still could be going up.....2011 and 2012 will be point of inflections on fundamentals, we either take control of our destiny or we sink along with the corrupt banks....silver at $50 is just the beginning.
My only concern is wondering what we'll actually be looking at around us if or when silver is $60, or $100, or higher, if theres $100 silver the dollar is in awful shape or defaulted entirely. By then we'll also be seeing gas at $7 or far higher, food will be a severe problem for most people, banks will have hit the panic buttons again. To call '$1,000 silver' seems to me we'll be seeing complete chaos long before that. thats the only problem I have with price calls on silver, it will all implode on us long before such a 'price' in dollars was ever seen.
Sheep Dog,
I think people are much more adaptive than we give them credit for. Remember when $4 gas was a "shock" in '08? Now, "mehhh". People don't like it but people adjust to inflation. Drive less. Less disposable. More gov dollars to make up the shortfall. Scapegoats will be blamed and attacked for what are truly the Feds actions.
OK so they keep printing dollars, they keep going down as silver gold oil and food go up. Thats a wildly decaying timeline, Zimbabwe economic model. I dont care who is blamed, when people can no longer drive anywhere, food is out of reach, they have no money other than the promise of some sparse govt check, and everyones sitting home after moving back in with their parents, resilient or not, somethings got to give.
If I hear this explanation right, we'll have a 3rd world country entirely dependant on govt handouts to provide some sparse bare needs, some mac n cheese for dinner every nite? They can scapegoat whatever they want, a depression is a depression.
The only 'Meh' we're seeing is a media which refuses to go into their usual indignant outrage at the president and congress over high gas prices, since theyre all now on the team. Doesnt mean people arent pinched out there terribly just the same. And now gas is over $5 in at least 5 states. We'll see how long their 'blame game' fends off the innevitable strikes, protests, food and gas riots.
And the people (ok, not ZH) will look to the government to fix this. Take on the greedy oil companies, the greedy OPEC nations. And then look for the false flag to allow US to use it's great military assets. War is the most inflationary activity and the best cover under patriotism. Destabilize the MENA and then we have the cover to go in and resource grab. Save the world from "dictators" and make it safe for democracy while we are all robbed blind.
US gov definitely knows they can't bring the military home w/out jobs...they are far too dangerous. Expect them to be kept busy as far away from America as possible.
LOL come on - last time gas was $4 the economy imploded shortly thereafter. 3 Trillion (+/- who really knows) later and here we are again at $4 gas and the economy is, once again, going to implode again very soon. Think about it what was silver priced at last time?
To me, what we're seeing is people replacing FRN's as world currency with PM's. Real frightening part is the Maniacal Monetizers only answer is 'hit it with a bigger monetizing hammer'.
I think you are right but still only a tiny part of peoples assets are in PM's...it's a tiny door into PM's and the tangible like and if the herd stampedes, good lord, purchasing power of these tangible assets could be unbelievable.
I would rather hold Silver at any price than make a dishonest Banker or CEO rich. Max Keiser should have a Pull your Money campaign. Invest in Honesty dont try to get rich and everything esle will fall in place.
I was speaking to a thread spinning group (antique wheels with foot pumps) who told me they estimate it would take them more than 40 hours of labor to spin and weave a yard of denim of the $30 jeans I was wearing. I feel very wealthy by historic standards
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pound_sterling#History
Silver has been screwy the past 3 days after US markets close. Check out http://www.coininfo.com/ to see todays silver chart and the natural, free market moves it has been making all morning.
It did the same thing in the 1min charts on Wednesaday but with .20 cent swings for about an hour. Last night it did it again and this YouTuber noted it in is silver update.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0S7b8iDzIjA&feature=feedu
For those having trouble finding a good spot chart go to > ino.com < and find the silver spot day chart. At 12:10 pm it was at 47.617. However ,it is fluctuating wildly.
thin trading or something else on the horizon?
@ Hambone. I suspect thin trading has a lot to do with it. Also the unintiated are getting ripped for a buck per oz. For the last 4 hours it is jumping back and forth constantly between about 46.60 to 47.60. I've never seen it this bad before.
may also just be that as a % of $47 ($1=2%) the price vacilation is similar to what it was at $15 ($.30=2%)? Just bigger denominator now?
You make a good point, but what I was especially noticing, was the price vacilating about a dollar constantly within 60 second time frames from a little after 9am to a little after 1pm.
If you customize the (ino.com) silver spot chart to 1 day and minutes then compare it to say 3 or 5 days you'll see the anomoly. It seems to be getting more normal now.
dup, sorry
You've got it absolutely right Hambone. So what if silver goes to $100, or $500. What are you going to sell it for - dollars? Hell no, if you do anything with it and you're smart you will use it (as real money) to buy (1) stuff you need to live and prosper and (2) stuff that will help you produce the things you need to live and prosper. The idea that sometime in the future you are going to sell your silver for paper money is insane, literally. It means that you are stuck, as in trapped, in an extinct paradigm.
Silver goes up just to $70 or so I believe we'll also be seeing strikes, riots over food and gas, who knows what the central banksters do at that point. I know some people say 'we've had gas at $4 back in 08....yea well since then we've also had job losses of 400,000 every week, real economic death spiral as the liquidity papers over true effect. Somethings got to give, and daily flowery BS from teleprompter in chief only goes so far.
True if you assume the silver price is soley a function of the USD value -- which it is not. We are somewhere between bullshit and reality in the price of silver. "Bullshit" being the fake paper price maintained through the stuffing of the paper channels over the years and "reality" being driven by supply/demand. The Sprott piece listed all the reasons.
$POG is the better indicator of inflationary distress.
If silver goes to $500 I will sell. And pay of my 7 acre mortgage. Assuming dollars are still what will pay off a mortgage. Or I will sell into any new currency if I can if it will pay it off.
1 Monster Box equals 1 Home! Just wait.
It already does in some places. The empty Bank owned house next door is now $25,000 as is. All the copper in it was ripped out about a year ago. I asked the Bank manager if he would take a Monster Box of 2008 Silver Eagles for it. He looked up the current price and told me he would be more than happy to make that trade.
Hit a top at $47.90, same range bound pattern was in effect last night for a few hours.
http://www.goldshark.com/
Paid $50/US Eagle yesterday, (no tax or delivery) & glad I did.
I'm going to advance a theory here. I'm open that it's based on a mix of fact, interpretation and spec. But we've been right all along so far on ZH about this. Here goes. Clearly there's panic short-covering of silver paper shorts going on. Some of those IOUs may have been printed and lying there since 1980. No coincidence this all happening near the high from those days as that's how WS operates: all in when the Fed gives a green light. At the margin the Fed is starting to really sweat as expressed through the Teleprompter-In-Chief (TIC) telling the world for the second time in 3 years that oil prices are the fault of 'Evil Speculators Still At Large'. But I don't think it's really oil that keeps Bean awake at night lately. Now here's the punchline: If silver breaks $50 and all those mountains of paper-shorts held by JPM and other insider banks go negative, we're facing yet another wave of systemic risk. Up to now JPM was considered invulnerable because of what happened in 2008. But in the last several days they've gotten hit with a triple whammy: Thursday the House Price Index dropped 1.6% in the span of a month. Now a cumulative 18.6% below its 2007 peak (back to May 2003 levels according to FNC). And commercial real estate down 3.3% in Feb according to Moody's. That's big and it means there's that much more paper going south. I can't find the link but Dimon mentioned during the earnings conference call that loan loss provisions were up and mortgage origination was down 29% QoQ. Business at all the major banks was down last quarter across the board too with revenues coming in surprisingly soft. So silver is a potential strike three. We might be on the cusp of something big. Really big.
Caviar (and SheepDog and Hambone), I believe you are all correct.
Something ugly seems to be coming, and soon. Really big like you said Caviar.
Our world may be ugly-looking with silver at $70 and gold at $1600.
...
Might not be a bad idea to pull out $500 out of the ATMs each day this weekend as well...
Yup. Stayin liquid and keeping physical at hand. What I'm talking about is big. Silver would only be a catalyst, but sometimes one last event triggers it.
Current front page, and top listing in business section as well. You can't have a bubble if j6p is selling. Expect to see "silver parties" in the near future too. Time to sell grandma and grandpa's silverware.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/22/gold-hits-record-high-americans-sell_n_852320.html
BTW - Fun new game is to check inventory of APMEX (just type in 9999 in the quantity and for almost all items will give you total available). Has anybody been tracking this? Seems their inventory is getting very thin but I haven't been playing this game long enough to know?
Anybody?
I check 100oz bars a few times a week.
They had over 1000 on 4-18 & now less than 250.
Holy Week indeed....
206 - and 7,272 Silver Eagles (2011 only).
Low...very low.
They're out of 1 oz. bars in stock too. They had a bunch of 1000 oz bars less than a week ago. They'll buy SE's from you for $48.46.
Down to 4,426 Silver Eagles (2011 only)
It does look like they added some more 100 oz and 10 oz. but they might sell out before Monday. There definately seems to be an increase in buying which surprises me a little considering the run up.
The usual. The higher the price, the more people that want in.
This trick is your friend. The results will shock the hell out of you. Soon after you too will be predicting $1,000 Silver.....
http://currencytradingexchangeguide.com/607136/silver-physical-supply-in...
Wow, very interesting. Thanks for posting.
Check out INO silver spot chart. Can't seem to make up it's mind. WTF?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=FOREX_XAGUSDO&t=&a=&w=&v=s
Since the price of silver is denominated in US$, maybe somebody decided to divide by zero...
Just posting a reply to another ZH'r, but thought I could get some feedback from some of the directions I've been going in of late.
My concern is that the present 'ever rising' price for silver is an attempt to force a blow-off.
This is not typical behavior and it has me worried that big players who couldn't push the market down shorting are now taking a different approach. Typically on days like today we would have consolidation or minimal movement in price, but instead we have strong gains. Someone's pushing this and it worries me.
worried about its dollar-denominated value...?
What Dollar value?
precisely.
Could it be China, India, MENA, and the like buying physical and dumping dollars? And isn't this just the dollar falling more so than the price of silver rising? So countries, funds, people are moving into a widely available asset that can not be devalued.
Silver, gold are just a vote against the actions of the government and the Fed. The worse the actions and outlook for these groups, the greater appreciation of PM's. Nothing on the horizon sez gov / Fed are about to "do the right thing".
I haven't been buying physical right now because I'm living in the Middle East in the middle of a temporary work gig. Living in a loaner apartment, out of suitcases, etc made it seem like not a good idea. So I've been going with AGQ in the mean time with the idea that I would move it laterally into physical when I got back state-side this summer. So far AGQ has not disappointed, but I hope the system holds together until I get back. This is the last place I want to be if TSHTF.
I have a similar queasy feeling every time I leave the USA. What if it all goes *BANG!* when I am not home with my PMs and my guns...
But, in the end I believe Bill Bonner is right on this. Our country will decline, but probably slowly. To those of us who are fortunate, we can watch the parade, while we smile and have another sip of a good Cab...
Economic upheavals never end quietly or slowly.
It seems to me that the biggest risk for a traveler is something that directly shuts down the airline network.
When you go on trips, consider having a way figured out to get back if the US airline network shuts down suddenly. i.e. , for a visit to Peru, have a flight to northern Mexico and then a train or bus or rental car. Not actual tickets, just the info you need to get them quickly -- before everybody else realizes there's a big problem. So you already know exactly what to do if you get locked out.
I don't want to lose my Latin student.
Fed might get hanged on a Cross of Silver! ..... The irony. If WJ Bryan could see us now...
went to my local coin shop to make my weekly purchase. There is some guy in there selling TONS of silver. The owner and i are talking about how much it's gone up and the guy selling chimes in that it not good that it's going up this fast because that means the dollar is shit. Well, wouldnt that mean that it's a good time to buy, if the dollar is falling? And on one hand he's telling me the dollar is worthless yet he's trading all his PM for worthless federal notes. HIlarious!
why is it funny? the premium he charges you allows him to turn around and buy that exact same amount at a discount you do not enjoy, making good business for him...
i dont begrudge him making money. Thats why he's in business. Besides $1.25 over spot for the generic and $2.50 over for eagles is reasonable to me. Whats funny is the guy claiming the fed notes are worthless than trading all his pm for said notes.
Maybe he was on his way to go buy a farm in BFE along with food,guns and ammo...
What worries me is the "things" that you don't buy now that you will realize you need but won't be able to get when/if the TSHTF
The PM, commodity, stocks growth rate is just an exponential. Directly related to monetary growth. Nothing more than inflation.
3% growth. That's the target always, no?
1
1.03
1.06
1.09
1.13
It's an exponential function with a doubling period of ~70[1] divided by the percentage. 3% means about 25 years. 10% means 7 years? So why is it all exponential in the first place? Because, we have to take out new loans to pay off the interest on the debts created by the old loans.
Given that money is supposed to represent stuff that can be bought. Do you think that all the stuff which exists, has doubled over the last 25 years? 7 years. Do we have twice as many autos? Twice as many people? Twice as many businesses/buildings. Twice as many iPads? Is life twice as good?
Bollocks it is.
t's just money inflating. It's all "parabolic". It's all a bubble. It's all Ponzi. The problem is when money is increasing at 8%, then 12%, then 15%, then 18%. Just to satisfy some muppets who need to have a bigger number this quarter than last quarter.
Silver is in a bubble. Commodities are in a bubble. Stocks are in a bubble. Wages are in a bubble. It's all bubbles because money is a bubble.
[1] natural log of 2.
I guess this kinda looks like a bubble... http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dnGeocKg0y8/TbGPAp-W2zI/AAAAAAAAAjk/Q_WrtyoT9Y0/s1600/20110421+silver.png
A bubble would be the rise of one asset class drawing against a somewhat fixed amount of capital. Now what we have is a collapsing dollar w/ massive "money" creation increasing the supply of "money". Money must go somewhere or be devalued. Dollar down, T's dangerous, stocks likely to be hit by margin compression / slowing end demand, RE (who knows), so where to go but PM's as a store of wealth until a new equilibrium is reached?
So instead of a parabolic PM bubble, we have a hyperbolic PM/Dollar mirror.
OK - should begin this with "fuck if I know" but Gold, oil, silver, ags, etc. are all moving inverse of dollar - that's why the takeout of the 75 DXY last week seems so important...it says next and final chance for dollar bounce is round 70 and if no reaction there...dollar is done and it's buying power (expressed in $ denominated gold, silver, etc) could move shockingly. The old dollar collapse premised on a no win fiscal scenario (not that we couldn't fix it but we won't fix it).
Layer on top of that massive effort to manipulate PMs coming unglued and the confidence in the dollar long term, mid term, and short term could all be falling apart.
Again, fuck if I know.
Yeah and that would mean people are in a bubble too.....
Holiday or no Holiday, B1 and B2 (Ben and Blythe) are buying like motherfuckers for their own Northern Thailand 'Exit Plan'.
The rise of silver is ruthless!
http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/
Hypothetical scenario: In order to stop precious metals and oil from going ballistic, Ben hikes rates next week. He also let's QE2 lapse. This causes a 2000-3000 point loss in the DOW but it's not yet below 10,000. Ben deliberately sacrifices one bank, probably the one with the most foreign investment (Citi?). Layoffs begin, recession imminent, Obama is kissing Ben's ass begging for help, silver and gold drop 30%.
At that point Ben turns on QE3 and everything starts to rise again.
How many times can he play this game before the rest of the world says no more? He's been doing it for 4 years, about 2 more than I initially expected. Since I obviously don't understand these batshit crazy minds at the Fed, I can't make a prediction.
But what I can say is that I don't trust these bastards as far as I can throw them.
P.S. Even if gold and silver have large corrections, don't sell. I think real money is going to win over fiat in the end. Just don't be leveraged to hell thus forcing you to sell good assets to cover bad bets. The problem is that this could take a long time to clear the decks of the bad debt that is clogging the system (and causing the bailouts).
Only way I see PM's going down is if there is a shortage of dollars and the expectation for continued shortage (ie, what you now have in PM's). Only way for this to happen is Ben to drain the liquidity from the markets but this can't be done w/out a corresponding rise in Treasury interest rates and government debt implosion. Not saying can't happen but pretty sure politico's don't want this to happen on their watch. Kick can. Absent a liquidity crunch, no reason for people to move back into T's and dollars as a store of wealth or even a short term trade.
You can play games until you can't anymore and the patience of those you are taxing can snap without warning at any time. There's no telling "when", but in my opinion, it's already over. Japan was the trigger, and events are now beyond FED control no matter what they do.
We'll all be feeling Japan's pain before long.
It's roostin' time at the old chicken coop.
I say he says no to QE3, but will re-invest maturities (the Rickard's theory) for what is really QE2.1 to infinity.
For those that only use Kitco, here's a link showing the crazy action...
http://www.24hgold.com//english/home.aspx?money=newyork
Bingo. GMTA - I posted a reply on this subject earlier today, and yes, I think you nailed it:
http://www.philstockworld.com/2011/04/21/bernankes-qex-box
LOL 2000-3000 point loss in a DAY - if they start raising and a TBTF bank gets sacrificed you'll break 666 in the S&P in record time. Will never happen IMO, the entire system is hanging by a thread and that would be like throwing a piano on it (or something heavier,you choose).
1~~ slewie thinks blythe is the hottest female on the planet, right now! Yeeeeowee! hi, blythe!
2~~ other crimex dates of interest: wed, apr 27: apr silver futures last trading day; fri, apr 29: may silver futures first notice day.
3~~ notices for delivery. only 2 yest: 4.22 DJ Comex Silver Delivery Intentions Breakdown - Apr 21
the supply seems to be there, for now, in silver. on the crimex. what i see with my eyes, too. rivers of silver. the "scrap" is being sent to smelter where .925 sterling goes in, and crimex-tradeable silver bars come out. if people want to pay $46.68, come & get it!
why the hell would someone pay this for an ounce of silver? b/c the price is in green stamps and green stamps are either failing or, in line with a recent zH theme, pretending to fail.
and it's not like batmanke hasn't informed all & sundry, after the financial system completely freaking imploded that reflation was his claim to fame. i just put the google on "reflation bernanke" and the coverage starts in early '08. now, we are resting, hahaha, as QE2 winds down and the bullshit starts for QE3.
i would say the PMs are pricing in QE3. wouldn't you?
Who's Blythe? Ann Blythe? Blythe Danner?
The enemy:
http://www.profimedia.rs/picture/blythe-masters/0076945836/
She looks like an evil bitch that would eat her young to save herself.
She's the new prize mate for the tainted love club.
I think they are trying to work out a taint for love swap.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aboxu9-qG-E&feature=related
Beau Tox call her Lady Aga. Slewie grok pun in English tongue.
Lady Aga -- I like it.
Yes QE^n+1 is factored in. Have you noticed everytime Black Hawk Ben speaks, PMs go up? I think this is all advance buying before his 4/27 speech. The smart money knows when Ben speaks, FRNs are being printed. Oh, I mean not printed, just digitally created. I don't want to accuse the man of not being totally truthful
Attn: RobotTrader's Silver Challenge
Heh, lots of "trash talking" going on here.
For any of you guys who live in Los Angeles or Orange County, CA:
I am offering to sell you a green box of 500 2003 Silver Eagles with the original safety wire still attached.
Price: At the spot price close for the previous trading day. Minimum price of $46/oz. Cash only.
I will personally deliver it to your home or office within 24 hours.
A special $2/oz. discount to:
- lieutenantjohnchard
- tmosely
- redpill
If you happen to live in Los Angeles or Orange County, just to be able to meet you in person.
The guy who lives closest to me gets the silver. Any takers????
can i pay you with gold....
Thank you for stepping up and being a man. However, I must stick to my original plan. Cash only.
it's only $23K!
i did this once in '68 with a guy named leroy and it turned out badly, but only with a lifetime supply of weed.
the '03s are to die for! wasn't that they year they traded straight across for Topp's Year Sets?
RT is callin out the FRN holders with a Green Box from the Mint! showtime!
Man up silver bulls. I am sure he will break the.box and sell individual rolls. CNI is buying rolls now so he can break the box and still sell the leftovers....is Saul still there? He used to be the main man in the old days at CNI....bought most of my phys from him.
Yeah the guy who was shorting silver at $28 was actually "secretly" buying the whole time! verrryyyyy sneeeaky.
And I'll meet you, but it will have to be in a dark alley or desolate area of your choice. I promise to come alone, unarmed and with the cash in $20's in a brown paper bag.
Alright! Robot steps up to the plate. Keep us informed!
$2 / oz discount just to meet my philosophical homies??? If tmosley, redpill or Lt. Chard are in the LA area, they may let you get away with a 50 cent discount.
It would be interesting to see anyone in LA come up with the +/- $23,000 in CASH (on a Holiday weekend) to take the box off your hands.
The Bearing LIKES silver, but I am going to exchange some Ag for Au (or Pt) ASAP. Feels like too much of a run. Even so, if those who say $70, $100, or $1000 wind up being right, I will still have skin in the game.
Wwhhhheeeeeeeeeee!
the biggest challenge would be getting your bank to fork out that kind of cash on the spot.
Yeah, not very likely, is it? Plus, just where, on a holiday weekend, would you feel comfortable meeting a stranger in LA County with $23K in your pocket?
Simple solution to that problem.
CNI is located about 20 minutes from my house.
http://www.golddealer.com/
We could meet there during business hours, and have Dave Edwards verifiy the authenticity of the green box. I still have the original receipt from 2003, and I will bring it. They have a full time security guard on the premises.
Should not be any risk for a potential buyer. And they could buy it from me at spot, vs. the Spot + $1.60 directly from CNI. Of course, the "3 junkers" get an additional $2/oz. off, if they dare to show up.
LOL......
where's Muir?
i know! Haha! holiday!
I would actually take you up on the offer except:
1. I don't live in Southern CA.
2. I don't keep thousands of $ in cash.
3. This personal delivery thing makes me kind of nervous.
I've never junked you, but for a $2/oz discount I would be willing to promise to junk you religiously in the future, if that is what you want.
Seriously why don't you just sell it to your local dealer?
Whether this is a bubble or the mother of all short squeezes, I can't really tell. I just keep buying physical at regular intervals and don't have any regrets so far.
Sure, I could sell it on Monday at CNI at the price posted on their website. Or drive down to Newport Beach to Monex or Tulving.
But selling it to one of you guys and actually meeting someone in person would be a lot more interesting.
That way, they could see what I look like. Most of you should be anxious to meet the "troll" living in a junked out 600 sq. ft. apartment overlooking the Hollywood Freeway with no money, no job, and no car, etc.....
LOL......
No you can't. Cash is off the record. Take cashiers check?
It would be interesting. But LA isn't within driving range for me, and I'm kind of not interested in meeting someone who is interested in meeting me when I'm carrying a big wad of cash. I think you can see what I mean.
And from your point of view, agreeing to show up with a roll of silvers at a place specified by some internet poster doesn't seem like a very good idea to me. I can't believe that anyone would actually do that!
People might pay more attention to your posts if you would name your stocks picks before they go up.
I always get what I want.
Let the cowbells start ringing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7B2LPxggvqY
Way to man up and throw down for the bullshit parade robo.
Hear hear!
Robo, you not thinking about giving the big dirt nap to one of your junkers are you???
Ya JPMorgan is offering a free monster box for every zerohedge participants head. You can sell it or use it as bait.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg6SeIYdt00&feature=related
Those are hilarious.
Tolkien fan here, ever since I read "The Hobbit" in 5th grade.
No answer from Robo, quite ominous...May have saved a perma-junker...
Like the bait idea, Silver and a curare handshake ought to work out nice...
I believe it was saul who used to be the main guy at cni. Is he still there. Bought silver and.gold from him for ten years. Used to be the only guy taking phone orders in the old days when business was slow.