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Holiday, No Holiday, Doesn't Matter: Silver Still Up By A Buck
Not content with rising by a dollar during all recent regular work days, silver is now up a buck on a holiday. Doesn't make much sense, but we'll take it.
And for something actually relevant, below is yesterday's Gold options reports from FMX Connect, whose calls so far have been spot on.
Summary
June Gold settled at $1503.80 per troy ounce, a gain of $4.90 for the day. Gold continued to trend higher ahead of a long, holiday weekend. Options trading was steady and a continuation of yesterday’s activity. Volatility was slightly lower going into a long weekend.
Commentary & Analysis:
Today’s futures activity was a repeat of yesterday’s. The options activity also mirrored yesterday but at a lower volume of interest. In this article, we’d like to lay out what we think will happen to gold over the next 6 days. Before we do let’s discuss the futures activity. Today, as in the last 4 or 5 days, the market was very orderly. It traded new all-time highs overnight. While futures came in higher on the Comex, they traded in a tight range, approaching but never piercing the overnight high. The range has consistently been between 1495 and 1507. Every day it moves up a couple dollars. Today it was 1500-1510, with most of the day spent between 1501-1507. We’ve seen this behavior before. When you combine this activity with a big holiday weekend and a specific type of options open interest you have a setup for a $20 move higher.
There were 6800 lots of open interest in the May 1500 call going into today and interest has remained at that level for some time. Market making firms and locals are long, while banks are playing from the short side. Banks have the deeper pockets and one might assume that the strike will be pinned if he is a student of history. And so here we are, hovering around the strike, ripe for a pin.
Enter the May 1520 call buyer. Over the last 3 days large volumes of the 1520 call have been purchased. with approximately 6400 contracts trading on Tuesday alone, almost all of them purchased near the days’ lows. These are not impulsive buys; on the contrary, they seem well thought out. We believe the long is strong and once the May 1500 gravity is broken, as is happening slowly, a nice pop in the market will occur. Finally, take note of the market’s opening schedule reposted here and its implications for futures liquidity:
• April 21st, Holy Thursday: day before a holiday
• April 22nd: Good Friday: CME Closed
• April 23rd,Easter Saturday: Markets Closed
• April 24th,Easter Sunday: Markets Closed
• April 25th, Easter Monday: LME Closed (Largest Physical Bullion Exchange Worldwide)
• April 26th, Tuesday: May Options Expiration CME
While everyone we speak with is worried about the 1500 strike being pinned we think the 1520 is more significant. If we go to the 1520 strike money will change hands in a spectacular fashion, whether we pin it, progress through, or fail.
As for the other months, August calls were bid, specifically the 1600 strike. This was a different type of buyer from the 1700 call buyer yesterday but both were bullish. June calls were also bid but found sellers in the futures selloff and never quite recovered. August, however, remained firm. June at-the-money options were lower from two types of sellers, retail liquidating 1500 calls for a profit and speculative bulls selling naked puts the 1500-1480 area. As stated many times before, if this market continues to bid call skew then puts will have to give up, and we are finally starting to see that in the December 1300-1200 area. There were sellers of the December 1200 put in outright and spread form today. If this continues we will have seen the continuation of the skew transformation. Finally, December 1700 and 1800 calls are untouchable.
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i appreciate the offer of a $2 discount but i already bought a significant amount of physical this week, and last. still awaiting delivery for a few orders.
plus i live in texas so it wouldn't work out. i think tmosely lives in texas , too. not sure about redpill.
Ok robo i am impressed. I have been asking people to tell me if they are still purchasing. No one seems to be purchasing in significant quantities right now, so who are the buyers?
Sadly probably the same people who got burned in the tech mania.
Eh? I told you I'm still buying. Every month.
I should have mentioned those few exceptions like you T.
Dollar cost averaging if you intend to stick with it is reasonable
I got an idea robo. You can break the box and offer individual rolls. CNI will buy individual rolls now and you can sell them the remainder.
I am selling my last box real soon. Was waiting for 25000 but may change my mind. Gonna try to get my mom to sell her silver too. I was pushing it on her since 99 by buying and then telling my mom i needed money and pushing my silver on her!
Time to get the fuck out now. My mom would humor me but saw no reason to buy 10 oz silver bars at 65, then 95, then 105, and i just kept pushing it on her and.claiming "temporary cash flow problems" now i am getting her out monday.
Actually, Dave Edwards told me that an unopened 2003 box might have a decent premium one day. I'll probably end up selling some of my bars instead, and keep the monster boxes I have left. Nevertheless, my offer still stands for the long weekend for anyone who wants one box.
If I lived a thousand miles closer, I would take you up on that in spades.
Though I sadly suspect that you plan to carry out a murder suicide plot.
Edit: If you would hold it until Friday, and meet me in the LAX terminal, I might be able to do it IF you held the price ($44/oz). I would have to liquidate some silver to do it and I don't have experience cashing in more than $2000 at a time.
But you want $2 off spot the previous trading day. Who knows what will happen between now and then? Silver is moving too fast for me to try to liquidate so much. No dice without a set price that is good for a week.
Lmfao!
Too bad you don't live out here. But my deal is previous day's spot price close. Local delivery in L.A. only, in a secure location where there is a security guard. And i only accept U.S. Fiatscos for payment. I didn't think anyone would really have the guts to pay cash for $24k worth of silver at the insane price of $46+.
Nice, you make a loaded offer that very few people have the ability to take advantage of, and then cast the aspersion that EVERYONE who doesn't buy on those terms has no "guts".
Nice ploy, but you're still a loser.
...long time lurker, first time poster, love the show.
Can anyone recommend a firm that can facilitate the purchase of foreign treasuries through a self-directed IRA?
My wife presently has her self-directed IRA through Fidelity, which requires 100K minimum purchase per bond type/country/transaction.
We've looked at Sterling Trust where she has her metals, but purchasing through them will skew the total cost of her holdings from a flat fee, to a holding fee based on total portfolio value.
She was hoping to find someone with a good reputation that allowed for smaller purchase increments of 10-25K, with reasonable management fees.
Thanks.
good day for a crucifixion ...
round up the usual suspects
godless hedge bytches
just bought 15 kilos silver.
silver guy delivered
me a cruise missile...
.
Check me: If the Obama administration is going after oil speculators and has also just told Boeing, a private company, WHERE it may build another manufacturing plant to produce more planes, what makes anyone here think that by Sunday night before the market opens, it won't help Blythe and JPM somehow, and then Monday morning when the US opens, make that help bigger by jawboning the Obama administration's next move - attack on silver speculators and those that have SLV in their portfolios?
Yeah that would work out great - it would be the biggest buy signal you could ever ask for to have Obummer to basically announce that the dollar is toast.
47.68 $ per oz...
[ insert snarky comment here ]
I hold a small amount of physical and have since for quite some time. Everyone shoud have some in their portfolio. But for those who are trading it on paper be careful.
High volatility in on the 10 minute chart indicates a market top is near.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article27656.html
In gold, the further advance in prices on shallow corrections brings us back to the concern I expressed a few weeks ago about bubble-type action. Silver prices are displaying even more exaggerated "log-periodic" behavior, as are some agricultural commodities. We don't know exactly when this will end, but we would prefer to scale back early rather than late. A Sornette-type analysis (see Anatomy of a Bubble) suggests a "finite-time singularity" within days or weeks. Any additional upward leaps in price, with very shallow corrections and increasing volatility at 10-minute intervals would strengthen that impression further.
This is from a guy that does analysis equal to or better than Tyler.
Unofrtunately folks the Fed is going to drop a bombshell on the markets next week it has no choice the world cannot withstand higher commodity prices and stocks are reporting good numbers so they have the room to do it.
Another indicator is that the RSI on spot silver peaked at 92 on April 7th and has drifted lower for the past two weeks while the price has increased 10%. Not a good sign in fact a bearish divergence.
It will go over 50 before the Fed annoiunces because my guess is that someone with a lot of money (read Saudi) that toook a large position in 1980 is going to get their money back.
Junk me all you want in fact I will junk myself to get it started.
It will go over 50 before the Fed annoiunces because my guess is that someone with a lot of money (read Saudi) that toook a large position in 1980 is going to get their money back.
Then they deserve it don't they as its been dead money all this time as an investment? or they were thinking like the Chinese - LONG TERM. Either way, I think you might have something in theory.
Do you guys anticipate silver hitting $100?
I believe QE3 will eventually happen, but in the meantime will there be a major pullback in PMs after it is announced that QE2 will end?
Will PMs and commodities keep rising in anticipation of QE3? Or because rates remain at 0%?
Sort of a newb and younger person here and interested in what some seasoned thinkers believe.
I do not think qe3 will happen. At least not right away. Anytime now we could see heavy selling as qe2 is shut off and run for exits.
What could happen, is market sells off hard with no QE, Ben says oh no we can't have that and starts qe3.
There's two kinds of people with metals. The kind that see it as a commodity and the kind that see it as alternative to money.
What will a further collapse in economic activity and tax revenues do to the Revenue side of the Income Statment of the US government? What will higher interest rates do to the Expense side? What will this do to the USD?
Fiat gold price is a function of confidence in the fiat. Accelerating the implosion of your economy will not inspire confidence in the FRN. There will be no meaningful move down in gold.
Silver has its own dynamics - short term anything could happen but it sure looks like it is nowhere near done.
closed 47.73 ... blythes dildo must be worth a fortune
Verily I am amazed at the gentry all up in here; with your monster boxes of the U.S 1ozt .999 ag eagles; as the reckoning comes; there be not enough junk for change in exchange. It be very easy now as the precious awakens; but what happens when it's lessor cousin gold jumps to $5,000usd per ozt .999 au and the gsr goes to 1/1 or? Just a think you blokes should consider; war nickels circa 42-45 (know these ) and dimes, quarters and halves 1964 and prior; halves 65-69. Know weights and conversions as shit be about to get silly; like in 15-27% moves. oh and get a proper scale too; remember those avridupus/troy ounce, pound, gram grain conversions and shit. Mathmatiks. in conclusion when you hear the modality spok'd "growth" convert that into energy consumption. thy live in wondrous times; just don't catch a mashie niblik in the nuts.
Silver bugs, Lets have some fun while we wait for the COMEX to default and Blythe to burn.
Predict Silver's May close and win a Silver Eagle from Silverdoctors!
http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/04/know-where-silvers-headed-pred...
I don't know if zerohedge will let me crosscheck to another's excellent blog entry about Blythe back in February 2011 but I do hope they let me as it sums up Blythe and her absolute idiocy. Let me go on record to say that I have a Masters degree in the business arena with substantial work being done in economics and NEVER did I EVER think up this crap as my professors would have flunked my ass out of the college of business.
Hat tip: Jesse's Americain Cafe:
In 1991, Blythe Masters read in economics (presumably with a heavy influence from H.P. Lovecraft and Stephen King) at Trintity College, Cambridge. In 1997, Blythe headed a small team of economists at J.P. Morgan bank in New York which developed the concept of the Credit Default Swaps as a means of insuring loans. This has led to Masters being described by The Guardian newspaper as "the woman who invented financial weapons of mass destruction." Regrettably, the quote from the Bhagavad-Gita about Shiva, destroyer of worlds, had already been taken by J. Robert Oppenheimer.
In April 2010 Masters told the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament that "there are definitely lessons that have to be learnt. I for one feel that I have learnt from that experience and there are things I may like to have seen done differently." There is nothing better than on-the-job training when manipulating the world's economy, as Ben Bernanke can attest. Theory is all well and good, but there is something to be said for the good old trial and error method.
Blythe has been the head of Morgan's commodity trading since 2006, and was reponsible for notably heavy losses in the firm's portfolio last year. JPM does not specifically disclose its own market positions, but is rumoured to be short a multiple of the solar system's estimated reserves in the silver market. The positions are said to be 'almost as volatile as Lindsay Lohan's personal life' and 'about as far underwater as the Titanic.'
We are literally getting paid to sleep at night now. I still only seem to be able to manage to spend only $400 to $600 bucks a month on coins though. Some things just don't change.
One troy ounce (ozt) is equal to 31.1034768 grams.
Gold Prices Spur Six-Fold Spike in Amazon Deforestation
ScienceDaily (Apr. 21, 2011) — Deforestation in parts of the Peruvian Amazon has increased six-fold in recent years as small-scale miners, driven by record gold prices, blast and clear more of the lowland rainforest, according to a new Duke University-led study.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/04/110419205526.htm
Can't Duke stick to just having it's hockey team rape women?
Congratulations and hats off to you buggers who have ridden the superbull this far.
Richard Russell always says that bull markets go up and down in ways that knock off the most people. Of all the people playing silver, maybe 3 percent will successfully start from the bottom and exit at the top. I was thrown off at 24 25 ish but thats ok because i was buying 10 oz silver bars around 65 dollars.
To ride this monster now requires major cajones or major stupidity. We will only know in hindsight. Most of you will miss the top. As an intelligent, small-balled individual I aint playing no more.
Just remember people late to the party usually face the biggest losses. Buy when things are cheap, be careful about buying into a mania. Me? I will be looking for unloved cheap stuff.
Its a real monster now, a once in a lifetime. Most of you will sell too late or too early. Johnnie come lately momo chasers may get rich or get hurt bigtime.
I have in my little collection a 50 million mark note from 1923 Germany. Do you really think the current dollar debasement is going to slow down, taper off, or reverse course in the next few years? How?
This is just the top of the second inning of this game by my estimation. Silver may be at $100 by the end of this year, who knows? Please tell me why you think this is like a big run-up in pork bellies or the housing market in '05. In my view 8 out of 10 people think the silver market has to crash any minute because it has gone "too far, too fast". They weren't around in 1918-1923 Germany when an ounce of gold went from 1 mark to 1 trillion mark. What's coming won't be the end of the world, just the end of some people's notions of how "high" the price of some things denominated in dollars can go.
Most manias end badly. I dont think somehow this time is different.
Maybe it will go far higher. I wouldnt be surprised. But i am 46 and have played this game from the beginning. Will i keep a token amount of pm's? Sure, but not enough i would care if it got cut in half.
There were times i had up to thirty percent of my networth in pm's but mostly kept it around twenty percent. I dont regret selling at half its current price. There is never any way to know the future.
This is a monster bull now. It will rip some people to shreds. You will be afraid to sell at the top, because it truly will look like the world is coming to an end.
But there will be some people who hold to the point of maximum fear, with the nation seemingly collapsing around them. They will sell into the teeth of this hurricane, when everyone else thinks all hope for the country is lost. Those are the real contrarians, and with few exceptions they have always been right.
Mania ends with maximum pain for market participants. Which do you think will hurt more, a few silver investors losing big, or every single holder of dollars in the world losing everything?
It's the dollar mania that is ending. Silver "mania" is just past the 2nd inning, as suggested above. Gold mania has hardly started.
I really hope you are wrong and we find a way to muddle thru until the sdr is adopted at a new bretton woods.
Most people have no idea the pain and suffering we would have with fiat repudiation.
Gold is a harsh mistress, and traditionally the common man has preferred softer money, because he is usually in debt to the rich man, or needs to borrow money to get his crops to market. People today see the flaws of fiat, but in earlier times they were definitely aware of the flaws of a fixed money supply.
one flaw of fiat is $4 a gallon plus gas and going higher because oil producers are not taking dollars anymore for payment. gold may be a harsh mistress but she's honest with the application of the whip. No cheating is allowed. Gold is a harsh mistress especially when its manipulated by bankers and governments, and don't think that Ben/Tim/Jamie Dimon aren't already making plans that have to do with confiscation of actual bullion since its been sold out from the US Mint and people have to buy Australian or Canadian gold issues - which might save us since these are not US coins but foreign issued - meaning it will be harder to confiscate them from personal holdings.
Most currency devaluations end badly too...especially when it is a reserve currency
I hear you tct. But somehow this just doesn't seem like a long term top to me. For example, why is this surge only affecting silver, while gold is just slowly drifting up like it has for the last decade? If this were a PM mania, I would expect it to affect all the PM's. If you look at the silver price chart, it seems that something happened around September of last year, at about the same time that various bloggers were saying that JPM had decided to eliminate the huge silver short position that it inherited from Bear. Somehow, price action and sentiment just don't seem like previous bubbles and I just have this feeling that something else is afoot.
Also, my friends who were singing the praises of the dotcoms in the dotcom bubble, and then the homebuilders and financials during the housing bubble are just beginning to take notice of PMs.
So I plan to just continue buying PM's as usual. If this is a bubble which pops at $50, then I may end up overpaying for a few months of silver purchases, but I have been buying for years so it won't be a disaster. However, my experience with bubbles is that they go on much longer and grow much larger than you expect.
Gold is currently selling at $1500 which is equal to 1.69X its 1980 high of $887.50. Applying that ratio to silver's 1980 high of $48.70 would give a price of around $82. So by that measure, silver is just catching up with gold and I wouldn't be all that surprised if silver went to $100 and then crashed back down to $60 or $70 before continuing its rise at a slower rate.
Personally i think this thing will go far higher and that we are just starting the final stage.
If it drops 30 or 40 percent then i may buy back in, but I wont chase it here.
You will see very few old speculators jumping in now because all of us have been burned chasing momentum.
If you play now, then tight stops, bitchez!
You are witnessing a once in a lifetime monster bull. Good luck.
If SLV drops 30 - 40% then Blythe covers and JPM gets out from under their quantitative short position, open a bottle of champaigne, call the Ben at the Fed, Timmy at Treasury and ask to be saved from their 60-70% haircut. These 2 clowns will comply because JPMorgan is TOO big to fail. Blythe then goes on to Switzerland and does the rounds of mea culpas before flying back first class to JPM's metals desk, not having learned a thing except how to manipulate COUNTRIES into saving your ass. Silver? That's just a starting point for Blythe. She's into shorting countries now.
Clear and concise analysis.. Bravo!
Me? I will be looking for unloved cheap stuff... Ratio of Ag:Au as follows: 04/22/11: 32:1 (and dropping) 01/01/11: 46:1 04/22/10: 64:1 Historic: 16:1 If the goal is to accumulate "money" i.e. PMs, why "cash out" in casino scrip between trades? Clearly, the reasonable trade is to exchange Ag for Au to increase holdings. As long as the US with its monstrous 14T gdp/gnp is held hostage to foreign/federal reserve note production and tribute paying timmy bill paper holdings, this default issuance of money is the least volatile and most secure form of wealth preservation. So simple even Texans know it. (though NY keeps it in "trust") [NY will likely forward it as quickly as reinforcements were sent to the Alamo. imho.]
I represent that remark, and you must be a damned Yankee Agressor!
Gee, silver gives new meaning to the old phrase...
"another day, another dollar".
Silver up $1.00+ a day? New meaning for the phrase "buck up".
Hey boiltherich..
The hockey team wasn't the team accused of RAPE.. it was the Lacrosse team and they were FALSELY accused!
The womean behind the accusation is troubled and has now been indicted for MURDER!!
http://gawker.com/#!5576761/the-accuser-in-the-duke-lacrosse-team-rape-case-gives-worlds-weirdest-press-conference
Get your FACTs right before you post!!!
According to .. www.xe.net
Silver settled Friday 4/22/11 at 47.623 !!!
Verified it at .. www.theBullionDesk.com
I'm not giving any credence to the hobgoblins and trolls whatsoever anymore. Sprott and Morris wrote an article that's posted at Harvey's blog that says it could take 63 ounces of Gold to buy an ounce of Silver in the future. While the numbers are compelling and I still don't believe such pie-in-the-sky predictions. I know we are going to really nail some wealth here soon. In fact I can personally weigh in and say that I already have. Biding one's time is quite profitable right now.