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Homicidal Homeless Unemployed Housewives: Why Crime No Longer Correlates With Economic Decline
With demographics playing an ever more important role in economic outlooks and debate, one of the topics that (luckily) has not had need of much mention, is the role of crime in society, and especially in a society gripped by the worst recession in 70 years. The logical expectation would be that crime would have surged in a replica of what happened to New York (and the broader country) in the mid-70s. Oddly enough, and perhaps a main reason why this is not discussed as much, is because this particular recession has not seen the traditional pick up in the crime rate (doubly curious, considering that unlike Wall Street, police departments, and their staffing levels, are usually among the first to get the funding axe). As BNY's Nicholas Colas points out: "Given the severity of the recession, you might be rightfully inclined to think there’s been a least a slight uptick in crime, but surprisingly enough, you’d be wrong. With national crime statistics from the FBI now available through 2009 – which includes the worst of the recession so far – we point out that not only has crime not gotten worse, but it’s actually continued improve quite nicely (in most states, at least). Moreover, those surprisingly positive trends are part of an overall structural decrease in crime that began in the early 1990s.The structural decline in crime that began in the early 1990s explains why the crime spike during the aftermath of the dot-com bubble and 9/11 was less pronounced than previous recessions, but it’s quite surprising that even given the severity of the financial crisis, crime rates expanded on previous declines. Yes, there are many theories (outlined below) that partially explain this, but the results are as puzzling as they are welcome. Not even theft and burglary, which have historically increased during recessions (see Charts 2 and 3) showed the slightest uptick." Yet with those behind bars not counted in the unemployment rate equation, is a violent (pardon the pun) surge in crime precisely what the administration is hoping for?...
According to Colas, here are the key reasons for the secular decline in the crime rate:
- Aging Population – According to many experts on the topic, the prime “crime-committing” years in a person’s life are between the ages of 18 and 22. With the average age of the population on the rise, there are fewer 18-22 years olds as a percentage of the population to contribute to the crime rate.
- Three Strikes Laws – Enacted by various states through the 1970s, 80s and 90s, these laws mandate that felony offenders who commit a 3rd offense receive lengthy prison terms regardless of the nature of that third offense. Since the recidivism rate is generally thought of as high among these criminals, the laws have resulted in fewer violent offenders in the general population.
- Legalization of Abortion in 1973 – This controversial theory (read the original Freakonomics book for a full description) proposes that the resulting drop in unwanted, unborn children (who were more likely to grow up in adverse conditions and therefore more likely to be associated with and exposed to crime) coincided with a sharp decline in crime in the early 1990s because that was the time when those children would have reached their peak crime-committing years. There is a summary here of the paper here: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=174508. We aren’t endorsing or refuting the findings – just reporting the theory, for what that’s worth.
- Dramatic uptake of social programs during the current recession – There are well over 41 million Americans receiving food stamps as of June 2010. That is up by over 15 million people from just two years ago and represents an all time record for participation in this program. The benefits are about $130/month per person and many commentators have noted that the social stigma of the program has disappeared in the current difficult economic environment. To the degree that crimes like shoplifting are economically motivated, the greater use of the food stamp program could well be contributing to overall lower rates of crime.
BNY provide some additional data on crime reduction:
- A sharply declining murder rate was clearly behind the overall drop in violent crime – on average, there were 8.8% fewer murders across all states from 2008 to 2009.
- At the state level, only 7 states saw an increase in violent crime and property crime from 2008 to 2009 (Charts 4 and 5). Interestingly enough, Hawaii was the only state to show a rise in both violent and property crime.
- West Virginia led the pack in terms of violent crime – its rate jumped 7 percentage points in 1 year, helped along by a 25 percentage point increase in murders. North Dakota, notably, saw its murder rate shoot up 98%, which contributed to its 5.8% increase in overall violent crimes. Rounding out the top 3, Arkansas experienced a 2.6% rise in violent crime.
- As for property crime, Oklahoma (+3.4%), Hawaii (+2.6%) and New Hampshire (+1.8%) saw the biggest yearly increases in 2009. Burglary was a notable problem in New Hampshire (up 13.5%), Alaska (+9.6%) and Mississippi (12.5%), while motor vehicle theft rose in only 2 states – Alaska (+2.1%) and Wyoming (+4.4%).
- Arizona, Montana, North Carolina and Georgia win the award for most improved – all 4 states appear in the top 10 for decreases in both violent crime and property crime (Charts 6 and 7). South Dakota overwhelmingly outpaced its peers in violent crime improvement, with a drop of 32.8%, as murder, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault were all down roughly 20 to 40 percentage points. Montana (-15.9%) and Arizona (-15.2%) rounded out the top 3.
- Arizona (-13.0%), Nevada (-11.1%) and Oregon (-10.2%) saw the biggest declines in property crime last year. Seven of the top 10 experienced declines in car theft in excess of 20%, while the average across all states was a whopping 16.4% drop.
Lastly, Colas provides the following confirmation that crime is basically no longer tied to economic conditions, by comparing individual state unemployment rates in 2009 to where those states rank in violent crime rate improvement, property crime rate improvement, and shoplifting. As preface for the following chart, Colas notes:
- Of the 13 states in the first quartile (i.e. the 25% with the worst unemployment rates), none rank in the first quartile of property crime rate improvement (i.e. the 7 states with increasing property crime rates and those at the bottom of the list in terms of improvement) and only 2 rank in the first quartile of violent crime rate improvement.
- Additionally, only about 30% of the 25% of states with the highest unemployment rates appeared in the worst quartile for shoplifting. Apparently adverse economic conditions are not driving people to incremental petty theft.
- At the other end of the spectrum, of the 25% of states with the lowest unemployment rates, only 1 (Montana) of the 12 ranked in the best (lowest) quartile for property crime improvement, while 4 appeared in the best quartile for violent crime improvement. Only 3 ranked in the quartile for fewest shopliftings.
Colas' conclusion:
Just as poor economic conditions don’t translate to equally poor crime conditions, stronger local economies are no guarantee of reduced trends in criminal activity. As we mentioned previously, the cost of crime to the economy is no small matter, but at least we’re safe in assuming the current downturn is likely not adding to those costs. And in a market where good news is hard to come by, we’ll take it.
Of course, this could be merely a preliminary bout of optimism: while we have not seen any definitive scientific literature on the matter, it could be the case that America is merely enjoying the ongoing delayed benefits of the longest period of fake cheap-credit prosperity. At some point the inflection point into crime may well be passed, and then the administration will have many more headaches on its plate than merely figuring out how to spin the latest negative employment report for general consumption.
One last observation: as a reminder there are currently 2.3 million Americans behind bars and paid for by taxpayers (oddly enough, the fact that the middle class that has to pay for the hard core criminals on Main Street and Wall Street is arguably worthy of its own post). Yet as a Pew research study notes, these are 2.3 million people who are not accounted for in the unemployment rate calculation (and at some point one would venture to guess these millions of criminals will re-enter the labor force, causing the unemployment rate to surge).
The economic crisis turned all eyes toward the nation’s unemployment rate, which recently crested above 10 percent—the highest level in a quarter century. Employment figures tell us much about the financial health of the nation, and are critical for understanding who is moving ahead and who is falling behind. However, conventional methods of assessing employment exclude the men and women behind bars, resulting in an incomplete picture. Now, with more than 2.3 million adults incarcerated, the effect of this omission has become too substantial to ignore.
In other words, the unadjusted unemployment rate is likely about 11% when factoring all those who may at some point be released from jail.
Alternatively, for those inclined to look at the world in an Orwellian way, at some point wanton incarceration may just be the ticket to drop US unemployment to zero, although, granted, with 14 million Americans behind bars. Perhaps a spike in the crime rate is precisely what this administration needs...
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The crime rate in Brooklyn has dropped significantly in recent years because the cops have become increasingly resistant to requests to file criminal complaints.
If you're mugged, and tell the cops, but they don't file a report, there was no crime. Problem solved.
Whether this could be a factor on the national scale is far beyond my apprehension.
There's lies, damn lies, and statistics - Twain
There's personal combat, shadow combat, and mind management combat - /snicker/
"What is the Matrix?" - Neo
"It is a prison for your mind." - Morpheus
Ya know, I liked The Matrix as much as the next guy, but why the hell didn't the machines just BURN THE FOOD?!?
There you go again, pointing out that what most people think is science fiction is really science fantasy.
Where performance is evaluate based on reductions in crime statistics, under-reporting of serious crimes doesn't actually happen, does it?
Don't forget all the yuppie/hipster gentrification.
From j'accuse to jacuzzi.
Ugh. Those McCondo folks are the worst.
Agree, have seen the same on the West coast. They just aren't reporting or prosecuting crimes. Shit, look at Wall Street/DC. Has anybody gone to jail yet, other than Madoff?
this report totally misses the point. It is looking for violent crimes and petty theft, break and enter those sort of things. I would like to see the white collar crimes graphed against the recession im sure there would be a huge correlation. there is white collar crime everywhere, by the FED, the banksters, the "bailouts", war on terror, the mortgage fraud, fucking everywhere!
"Crime no longer correlates with economic decline" my arse it doesnt! it's fucking cuased it, and these white collar criminals that have sent the economy broke are walking around scott free!
Well, prosecuted crimes may be down, but crime in general is way, way up. It's just that it's all happening on Wall Street, and of course there, law enforcement doesn't walk the beat, let alone try to lock anybody up.
In that regard, crime is @ an all time high...
The criminals moved to Wall Street where they are safe from prosecution.
Dramatic uptake of social programs during the current recession – There are well over 41 million Americans receiving food stamps as of June 2010. That is up by over 15 million people from just two years ago and represents an all time record for participation in this program. The benefits are about $130/month per person and many commentators have noted that the social stigma of the program has disappeared in the current difficult economic environment. To the degree that crimes like shoplifting are economically motivated, the greater use of the food stamp program could well be contributing to overall lower rates of crime.
Duh! What the haters fail to comprehend is that the welfare and people on welfare that they so despise represent a threat to their own lovely lives if not provided the basic sustenance for living. Is that not common sense?
It's the social contract (sorry, it doesn't embrace the altruism that idealistic advocates of austerity for the poor preach): In exchange for not robbing you, we must be fed a few crumbs from your tables.
The End.
Hand over your wallet. Now.
Call your caseworker, you preevert!
Don't be a "hater." It's just wealth redistribution and that's a good thing.
Hand over the wallet.
I know, I shouldn't have been so offensive. And I do get it. But there is reasonable ground to meet in the middle. At least, for the majority of us.
Last I knew, welfare represented less than 1% of the federal budget. Compare that to welfare for the elite parasites who are raping the middle class.
Hell, the Fed alone charges us 1% on every dollar created just to exponentially profit on our own money. There's no comparison with welfare. Welfare for the poor, that is.
Well sure -- that's the scam. The government makes it sound like redistributing wealth helps regular folks when in fact the vast majority of stolen wealth goes to political cronies.
If the government didn't take half of every dollar folks make then they could better care for their friends, family and charities and all the poor folks would be far better off than they will ever be with government "safety nets."
But more importantly, I don't mind if you break the fourth wall, but never break character.
So fork over the wallet or yer gonna get it!
LOL. Alright, "haters" was a low blow: I'm sorry.
I'd don't buy equating the poor with political cronies, but we both know how this debate goes. No hope of common ground.
You'll be glad to know, however, that the lump in my pocket doesn't mean I'm glad to see ya--I'm packing, too.
Peace.
I didn't equate the poor with political cronies. I agreed with you that little money goes to the poor while most goes to connected bigwigs. That's the scam of the safety net. It ain't the little guy who is kept safe.
When the bankers finally blow up this economy and walk off with their ill gotten gains what do you think will happen to the 40 million people on food stamps? Might not the crime stats rise at that time? Are we doing anyone any favors by pretending that "we" will take care of them when in reality the entire system is heading for a crash?
Interestingly, Chase handles most states' food stamp EBT card accounts. I wonder what their profit margin is on that service?
If/when there's a crash, I suspect that the majority of us will be in the same boat and that we'll be amazed by our willingness to be our brothers' keepers . . . when forced to do so. Which speaks to the "social contract" I mentioned earlier.
Have a good one, CA.
I agree, with the caveat that folks will then welcome intelligent, productive people who will get society back on its feet by creating goods, services and jobs. For a time, no one will call the (relatively) rich man a parasite because all will know first hand the true value of the entrepreneurial mind.
On the other hand, what's the point in robbing beggars that come to your door?
He robs from the poor and gives to the rich -- stupid bitch!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLkhx0eqK5w
Does Shadow Stats track the real crime rate - adjusted for hedonics ?- i.e. cops don't prosecute violent crimes anymore - driving violations and domestic disputes top their list of "criminal engagement"....
Seems like most walked on debt...getting away with white collar crime has cut both ways..
I would say there was a bloodless financial revoloution of sorts.
There are a lot of folks in jail for stealing minimal amounts and a lot of regular folk got away with many if not hundreds of thousand in debt.
still the bankers take the cake they walked on trillions.
really who are the criminals.
Didn't report the stereo faceplate being stolen from my truck. When you know there is no chance of recovery, you don't even bother to report the crime.
Dude, I'll 'fess up. Given your taste in music, I swiped that thing as a public service.
Burn all those Styx 8-tracks and I'll give it back.
To give some props: kickin' bass tubes in that ride, yo. And I liked the dangling decorations, too.
Does anybody have considered the fact that the crime statistics may be purely and simply forged, just like most gov statistics nowadays?
You can't on the one hand complain about the fraudulent economic stats, and on the other hand take the crime stats for granted.
The stats in USSR were marvellous, too. The country was better year after year. Until someone discovered that they were massively forged.
But surely the government wouldn't lie to us, would they?
Once again, Oceania has exceeded its production quota for Victory gin and shoes and arrested more thought criminals -- praise Big Brother!
Assumes all the crime taking place is being recorded (we know that hasn't been the case in the past). I know in my community crime is up and there is community wide concern to the point that the city budget in other areas is being cut in order to hire additional police officers.
Could be the fluoride in the water, the aluminum in the air. OR it could be the fact that everyone (and I mean everyone) is on some form of an SSRI or similar drug, and those of us that aren't are getting it from the water. OR we could just be too fat to fit through the windows and rob stuff.
It's not just Atlas that has shrugged. Two-bit thugs and shysters just ain't got the moxie these days.
It's criminal deflation. A two bit crook is not worth a plugged nickel these days Blame Bernanke.
.
In 2009 there were unemployment benefits for all jobless who qualified. In 2010 there are now up to 4 million who have exhausted all unemployment benefits and about 90,000 a week are joining that list (I wonder why government felt the need to feed the bonus demands of Wall Street's worst, but fail to help the long-term unemployed). Most of those who exhausted benefits did not find new work, but simply exhausted all unemployment. As those people get more desperate, don't be surprised to see crime increase in 2010.
Define 'crime'. I'm seeing a lot more auto accidents in my neck of Florida and I hear the same in othr parts of the country, albeit anecdotally. I think there's probably more passive-agressive stuff going on, especialy with men and women who would not in other circumstances show up on any statistics.
I was surprised by lack of crime.
I think it means people are either really concerned about the economy or are saving up on ammo.
Chris Rock's cure for firearm crime: A $5000 tax per bullet. That way, "if a nigga get shot, you know he did somethin' to earn it."
Black market bullet time! Guys with progressive presses turning into the new suppliers. Might be nice, then the little guy can make money at his press at home to :)
Got dies? is the new mantra ;-)
Calling the cops was so 20th century.
Since politicians use these statistics to run on and Police captains use these statistics to get keep their jobs, basically unless you make a shit load of noise, you have difficulty getting a report filed.
I have a friend who lives in a neighborhood that had a thug move in. In the past month there has been plenty of break-ins and property damage. No police reports. Reason being that the local politicians like to run on crime being down every year and the Police Cheif knows that if crime isn't down, he loses his job. Unless there is an insurance company demanding a report to be filed for a claim filing nothing gets filed.
My friend bought a street sweeper. Hopefully the thug breaks into his house and the problem is legally taken care of. Of course he is white and the thug is hispanic so it might become a political issue.
Be careful, Streetsweeper is now a class iii weapon. That sucks, i know. So I got a Saiga semi-auto instead with the 20rd drum mag.
The US made Streetsweeper version of the Striker shotgun, with 18" elongated barrel to comply with US firearms laws.
http://world.guns.ru/shotgun/sh09-e.htm
These stats were discovered dozens of years ago. Contrary to popular belief, hard times don't equate to an increase in crime.
It's because people are having a hard time figuring out who needs killing the most. Once that becomes clear, it's strap on the vest time. I'm guessing it won't be long.
So I guess we can discard the tired ole canard that the availability of guns increases violence and crime as well.
Bout time.
"According to the NICS figures, 14 million guns were sold in 2009, the biggest year since the system began recording data in 1998. The NICS figures are considered the most accurate measurement of gun sales because federal law requires that a NICS check be done prior to every firearm sale in America.
In fact, there were nearly 2 million more guns sold in the United States in 2009 than in 2008, the next best year for gun sales, when 12.7 million NICS checks were recorded."
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/75359
14 million more bitchez ;-)
Yummy!
Criminals don't buy guns at gun shops. Crime is probably flat/up in all the 'gun free zones' --like Chicago and DC.
I would submit a lot of the law abiding go out of their way to not purchase guns at gun shops either.
No paper trail...the thoughtful law abiding citizen does the same with physical gold.
At the end of the day "a law" must be equal for all...if it is not...it is nothing but tyranny.
The common citizen does not have access to body guards, bullet proof vehicles, gated cummunities or unlimited funds (taxes) or printing (legalized counterfeiting if you like) or armies to assure their own power & wealth.
This get's into the morality of law...probably best for another thread ;-)
Criminals have just changed to white collar crime to activites in politics, banking, insurance and so forth. These crimes go uninvestigated and unpunished. So they aren't counted. The cost to society is much greater.
When the so-called social safety net is gone, look out. I am Legendesque.
Government subsidies and entitlement programs are the numbing and soothing opiates of the masses. The interesting crime statistics will be those following the expiration of the extended unemployment and other 'emergency' programs enacted during the last couple of years. It may well be at that point that redistribution of wealth, in the form of looted stores for such extravagant goods as baby formula, diapers and bread will begin.
This is not the drop in crime that worries me, but rather the general drop in violence, independence of mind and rebellion. It seems like the sheeple is going to accept everything without ever thinking about taking the arms or simply be pissed off.
I'm definitely not an anti-capitalist, but I do respect people who were not afraid to confront the State like the Red Brigades or the Baader group. Not for their ideology or the civilians they killed, but for their spirit of rebellion.
Right now, men have lost their balls. And that's a bit why Zero Hedge is written by a Tyler Durden. Our Keynesian society is sterilized.
"Capitalism is the fullest expression of anarchism, and anarchism is the fullest expression of capitalism. Not only are they compatible, but you can't really have one without the other. True anarchism will be capitalism, and true capitalism will be anarchism." -- Murray Rothbard
And we have neither!
Xanax, Valium...Prozac...just a few off the top of the list
And commented on by an equally hidden 'TheGreatPonzi', which is pointed out by myself...the ball-less 'HookLineAndSphincter'.
Ya crimes down now that the people who handle fudging climate data are in charge.
How's the katrina crew doing on that pesky haiti problem. People still pissing in ditches.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/cb_haiti_earthquake
But there are more crack ho's and rabid Yankee's fans
Yankees fan stabs Red Sox fan in Branford fight, cops say
http://newhavenregister.com/articles/2010/10/03/news/doc4ca86ce8bdc51287277998.txt
Many economic based crimes are now wire crimes and Id theft.
In the words of the US' Poet Laureate from Hibbing, Minnesota:
"when you ain't got nothin', you got nothin' to steal...you're insolvent now, ya got no assets to con-ce-al"
Howwww does it feellll? ........... Not very well thank you.
No pun intended, but the jury's out on whether crime is down. Boston seems to not be following the script.
Check the guys slipping stuff in the water at the water plant.....
This can all be explained in two words.....gun ownership.
When seconds count, the police are only minutes away.
That's exactly right.
no cop ever stopped a crime. well maybe one did once, so if they show up, or don't show up, that's your statistics. also people are reluctant to call the cops, "you're car was stolen, sir, that's a shame is that a roach in you sock??"
anyway the survivalists are always screaming, lookout what happens when the government sends their gestapo to round you up and put you in concentration camp, but the problem is always the opposite, "THERE IS NEVER A COP AROUND WHEN YOU NEED ONE...."
Grateful, good point, , no one I know contacts the police unless absolutely necessary. You are more likely to get arrested for some pissant little thing. But think about it, if you were a cop, would you go for an easy bust of some pot head with a joint or an armed robber? I think more people are taking things into their own hands too. Armed? Heck yeah, gun sales through the roof.
I think people are being more careful driving, not committing petty crimes, cuz who can afford the ticket, the lawyer? A friend of mine got busted for DUI, 0.001 over the limit, had 3 glasses of wine at a "going away" party for co-worker. After installation of the breathalyzer on the car, "deterence" classes and lawyers, the whole ordeal cost her over $10,000. She still had to spend 3 weekends in jail, they charged her for that too.
okay, who can pitch in gas money for a drive-by?
Financial crimes and frauds big and small are where the real money is and they are never prosecuted. Guys are getting out on parole and becoming loan officers. So many scams are now legal of course the crime reports are down. You'd have to be a complete moron to do an armed robbery for $50 when one can easily make 1000x as much per each mortgage fraud. It's also not a crime to sell the appliances and copper out of the house if you "own" it.
Gun ownership and carry licenses have made professional criminals cautious, and have even made hot-heads apprehensive. Qualification for benefits has chilled down another fraction of the potential criminals, the poorest folks. Putting a low priority on marijuana offenders (not the violent crowd to begin with) lowers the numbers. If we measured crime in a manner analogous to calculating probability in decision making, we'd multiply crimes committed times total take per crime, divide by n, and see that financial crime has risen tremendously since 2005. Violent crime should be a loser's option between video surveillance and carry licensing/gun sales. Moneyed people are huddling in well surveilled neighborhoods, as well. No surprises in crime, really.
Some large cities cannot "service" crime reports, cannot respond to 911 calls in reasonable time, and discourage proferring charges, and so that likely has an effect. In rural areas a crime stopped by showing a firearm often results in both parties walking away.
I think cyclemadman and Ropingdown are on the right track regarding the widespread increase in concealed carry made possible by court decisions preventing local sheriffs from running there own inadequate protection monopoly.
It seems logical that it could be due to people being better able to protect themselves.
Gee. Who would have thought ... Isn't it about time the anti-gun lobby start issuing apologies for all the defenseless people they've martyred? I guess they have moved on to apprehending everyone under the guise of climate control. Fascists.
who you gonna steal from?? everyone broke!!
But this shatters my need to live in constant fear of violent crime and terrorists! It must not be true, or I have been wetting my tighty whiteys for no reason all these years.
Whaddya know? Who would have thought that fear mongering was just another scam?
I thought Sarah McLanahan's study in the 80's pretty much concluded that the 70's and 80's urban crime spree (and out-of-control teenage pregnancy rates) had all to do with the misguided welfare system of the 60's (most notably AFDC) - more thx to LBJ. Much of this sick vicious cycle of the urban poor begetting more poverty / crime peaked in early 90's and started declining steadily with the welfare reform in US (and most of developed nations, including Canada and the Nordic neighbors) - the crime / teenage pregnancy rates in US are now at lowest in some 40+ years.
Of course, back in the 70's, our gov't blamed it on everything from guns to economy to housing projects, etc, but their own welfare policies. It was politically easier to pretend that regulating guns would solve all the social ills - another thx to LBJ (and, of course, it didn't work). Those, like Patrick Moynihan, a product of NY's Hell's Kitchen, who correctly warned about the potential social fall-out of such welfare system in the 60's were often dismissed as racists (well, you see, you are not supposed to criticize welfare system or Obama, or join the tp mvt).
In NYC, Guiliani got all the credit for being tough on crime (likewise for Clinton at national level), but, by early 90's, there was a worldwide recognition that they had to change (quietly); away from too much gov't intervention.
I think any puzzlement over the differences in crime trends between now and the 70's reveals a flase conflation between the two environments. Specifically, it reveals one is 'fighting the last war', assuming all economic crises will be like the one in the past epoch freshest in memory.
DEflationary times tend to produce different patterns of crimes than INflationary times. Violent crime, which understandably gets our attention, tends to be less commonplace in defationary times. And the violence that does occur tends to be directly robbery related, as opposed to 'thrill' crimes (think Bonnie & Clyde vs. the Manson family)
But that's Not how it will be reported . . .
poverty does not cause crime. Neither does wealth disparity.
Otherwise the slums of Mumbai would be as violent as Rocinha.
There is one and only one correlation you need to examine to find a link to crime and it holds all over the world and has nothing to do it with poverty.
Incidentally, WV is one of the least violent and poorest states in the US. Crime causes poverty, not the converse
It's exact, and has been proved by honest criminilogists like the French Xavier Raufer. But the implications are "unpleasant", and definitely not politically correct.
Those statistics must not account for thought crime, otherwise Trav would single-handedly bump them to stratospheric heights.
I also think my numb, fearful cow generation is too messed up on its chosen opiates (TV, video games, celebrity culture) to figure out that crime might pay.
One plausible reason for the decrease in crime is that gun ownership and concealed permits have risen, increasing the risks associated with crime a little more life-threatening.
Exactly.
Updated GOLD monthly chart:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Where's the chart showing the generational property crimes committed by Congress against the American people since 1913? Go back to sleep, Prozac nation.
I am surprised something as obvious as "Big Brother Is Watching" has escaped this conversation.
Most people have cameras on their person, there are cameras on streets, in malls and stores, subways, banks, gas stations, convenience stores, home security systems...they are everywhere and people know they most likely will get caught and most petty criminals are stupid. Also cars, boats, bikes can be lojacked and tracked.
I'd agree that nowadays it seems most crime is fraud via insurance, ID theft, ponzi schemes, hacking/malware/viruses, spam phishing and email scams...I would be curious how these are being taken into account. Or how about foreclosure fraud? Mortgage fraud? Those don't count I guess.
I have been noticing for several years now that cops are becoming the enemy of the common man. No one wants to risk their reputation/livelyhood/time to deal with them anymore. This is the most likely cause of the lowering numbers.
Crime is always a result of scarcity , there is quite a extensive study on this here :
Merwa-Fowless study
www.epinet.org/briefingpapers/1992_bp_stress.pdf
Of course there is another theory that is missed here i think -
government statistics. Nuff said, if you believe BLS job reports -
you can believe in anything.
Oh we all believe Gov data..
I live in a small town on the east coast..
within the last 2 weeks we have had 5 shootings with 3 murders as the result..
somehow crime here must be the exception.
as background the town 26 years ago had 0 shootings over 10 of those years.
PS..concealed carry is almost impossible for the average citizen to obtain in my State (MD)
so who carries guns here..the thugs
if you are open minded enough you can find blogs such as Free Republic where crime reports from across USA are posted..
a hint they ain't lacking in postings.
When you are unemployed you are at home hanging around and have the time on your hands to be around your family and property. I think the high unemployment has made thieving more difficult. Add to that in the US, a nice % of those homebodies are armed as well, there you go, a much more difficult environment for criminals to work in.
Much easier to just get a government check than to try to steal from other people getting a government check (and who have nothing anyway).
Why bother robbing your fellow citizens when the government is so willing to do it for you?
Here in Florida I see and average of three patrol cars radaring traffic every time I make the short trip to the office, and many more cruising in traffic. It's enough to make a person paranoid. City, county and state revenues are down so police are increasingly tasked with revenue generation. The result most always is apprehending traffic violators or other non-criminal offenders where the penalty is a $-fine. If the police are busy with that, who is left to respond to property or violent crimes that don't generate revenue for the city or county?
No one says I!
Protect yourself, no one else will
Out in the Central Valley of CA, crime is just rolling along like the national pastime. Within the last year, our neighborhood went from 2 acts of graffiti vandalism on a neighbor's fence to; 20 graffiti tags, countless car break ins, 2 vacant houses stripped of their wiring, appliances, and light fixtures and 1 large arson. This is all from the physical sight of my front porch. This is a $100,000+ family income neighborhood. People will not file a police report because their insurance will skyrocket, or the cops won't take the report. Try filing an identity theft report too. On the other side of town the murder rate is 1.3x the national average and property crime is 1.5x. Yet the police cite the same FBI (like BLS) statistics - crime is down. I guess that is why we are mounting cameras on our houses and started am informal, but armed neighborhood watch group. Now the second speed dial button on the phone is for 911.
FBI. The same folks that missed 9/11.
Crime rates are falling or holding steady because of reduced enforcement and reporting, along with a populace who is increasingly unwilling to introduce the law into their lives in the first place.
It is not uncommon for urban night patrol shifts to all park in a single lot somewhere and sleep while one officer stays awake and monitors the radio. Patrol presence in these areas is virtually nonexistent at night.
Short of murder or rape, there isn't much that the police actually have the time, manpower, and money to do anything about in many areas. People who get tired of hearing "we can't do anything" eventually stop calling.
As far as the government is concerned, crimes that aren't reported don't happen.
You also have to take in account that the prison industry is growing by leaps and bounds. They may welcome locking people up for long terms on their first offence in order to squell any conflict. I will agree that americans are enjoying the final bits of the credit crazy era before it finally is gone. But I think the big thing why crime is so low at this time is because of the police. The police are acting like a gang and truly are intimidating the petty criminals from the start. You could say that this is a good thing, but the intimidation has moved to actually intimidating people who haven't done a damn thing. We have moved more and more into a police state, and in police states crime actually goes down because of fear of the machines of the state.
"Crime" isn't defined properly here. The real crime is all the pervasive fraud in the Banking system and on Wall Street. If you talk about that, CRIME has never been more profound.......