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Horrible 5 Year Auction Sends Treasury Complex Into A Tailspin, 5 Year Yield Surges 22 Bps In Two Days

Tyler Durden's picture


It has been a long time since we had seen a 5 Year auction as ugly as today's: printing at a 1.615% high yield, the 5 Year had a 3.5 bps tail off the bat to the 1.58% WI where it was trading before. The internals were just as ugly, with the Bid To Cover coming at 2.59 a plunge from May's 3.20, and the lowest since June 2010. Not surprisingly, Indirect interest evaporated once again, tumbling from 47.1% to just 37.6%, with Primary Dealers having to take up more than half, or 52.1%, and the remainder going to Direct Bidders. Too bad they will have no more opportunities to flip these back to the Fed. Which as expected starts to confirm Bill Gross' thesis that in the absence of the Fed monetizing, rates are about to go higher. One look at the second chart shows the relentless selling in bonds since Sunday. And as reported previously, with a barrage of issuance due in the months following the debt ceiling hike, which will probably be some time in July or August, look for the sell UST thesis to start getting its long overdue confirmation. In the meantime, the 5 Year yield has surged from 1.35% yesterday to 1.5727%, a mindnumbing move.

5 Year summary:

UST complex summary:

And... splat:


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Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:15 | 1409273 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Let's see...

No QE = higher rates

Higher rates = death to The Great Ponzi

Death to The Great Ponzi = loss of power for TPTB

Conclusion: QE can't and won't ever end.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:16 | 1409283 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And on the other hand, QE cant continue either....the great conundrum. Painted themselves into a corner with La Brea tar.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:40 | 1409372 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Stuck betweek a rock and a hard on...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 14:15 | 1409491 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You misspelled "cock".

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 15:00 | 1409647 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Not in Hulkville!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 18:02 | 1410151 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Turd has spoken...

In the words of that great contrarian investor Scooby Doo:

"Rhut, rho..."

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 14:10 | 1409467 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Painted themselves into a corner with La Brea tar.

More like with napalm.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:21 | 1409286 Boston
Boston's picture

No QE = higher rates

Nope.  Counter-intuitively, the opposite happened in 2010 when QE ended.  Rates fell.  Check for yourself.

After last week's massive rally, this is a very normal pullback (in prices).

Buy on the dips!


Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:19 | 1409295 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL, rates going negative...'thats just normal'...oh ok.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:22 | 1409305 Boston
Boston's picture

Nobody said negative (unless you're talking about the 30 day bill which just did) on the 5 year.  Just closer to ~1.0% before the big reversal, when QE3 gets pre-announced.

Again, study last year's template: the huge move DOWN in rates happened AFTER qe1 ended.  QE2 ends in a couple of days.....

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:29 | 1409315 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The 'template' is 'Get everyone 100% sure there will be never ending QE's, then pull the trap door out from under their sheeple asses'.

Watch and see.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:44 | 1409386 Boston
Boston's picture

If no QE3 arrives, then all the better for a long trade (NOT buy & hold) in Treasuries.

Without QE3(etc.), what will the sheeple do?  Panic.

Where will they run to when they panic?

Short-term Treasuries.


Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:50 | 1409412 eureka
eureka's picture

Perhaps. For a very short term hold. Till treassuries perceived "flight to security" status is revealed to be fraudulent. Sometime this winter.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 14:01 | 1409435 Boston
Boston's picture


I was short in the fall 2010.  There's little doubt that a rally won't last.

But in the meantime, why not grab an opportunity to profit (or avoid losses).  If everyone is so bearish here, and risk assets (especially US equities) are still near their recent multi-year highs, then why not gain from what will almost certainly be a flight to safety when the shit hits the fan?

We've seen this movie (clip) before....last summer.  We know how it ends.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:36 | 1409914 Glasgow Gary
Glasgow Gary's picture

The script is exactly as you say, except in 2011 it has already played out. Stocks have already corrected to price in QE2's end, and UST have already rallied. There is no "event" that occurs this week. The event has already occurred. To hold the view that the shit hits the fan starting after June 30, you have to believe something changes. It doesn't. The FED will still invest maturities and divs from their total balance sheet. Also, there will be less flipping of UST to the FED. You should use your script and consider a twist: UST just hit their price highs for the year.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 04:19 | 1410912 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

I think the flight to safety has been called into question by the utter lack of flight to safety so far in 2011.  However, bank recapitalization will force banks to raise capital through debt or equity offerings then lever it up and buy US Treasury securities to meet Basel 3 & D-F tier 1 requirements.  But it's still only short term cover for the thieves in Washington.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 14:30 | 1409534 kito
kito's picture

you are all obsessed over qe3 coming. not coming this year. fed not worried about deflation now. stocks holding their own. kiss fed balance sheet expansion goodbye for a long time.



Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:24 | 1409312 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Brother Dog,

I have a lot of cash sitting in my account.  Ummm, tell you what, I'll loan it to you and pay you interest on the loan.



Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:30 | 1409321 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OK brother! Just as soon as I buy me some more LULU and Monster energy drink stocks.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:48 | 1409404 eureka
eureka's picture

10 YR note up 10 basis points.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:05 | 1410629 mophead
mophead's picture

I concur, this is what I expect. If rates do go up, they'll come back down again, and then some.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:20 | 1409298 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Just for fun I junked myself, too.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:24 | 1409299 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

And I just junked that, too, and this.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:25 | 1409300 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

And this.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:29 | 1409318 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture


Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:35 | 1409353 taisen
taisen's picture


Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:28 | 1409329 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture


 Take this and put it were the Junk don't shine

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 18:06 | 1410158 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

I am now using the <JUNK> button as a thumbs up on a post...

So I <JUNK> you too Turd...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:21 | 1409301 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

ego-implosion in 5..4..3..2...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:30 | 1409320 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

SOME trolls are junking the TRUTH!! they HATE Zerohedge and what it stands for because it is exposing the truth!!!!! CROOKED BANKSTERSS!!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 14:32 | 1409541 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

You might get less junks if you stayed off of the caps lock, and were a littke more restrained with the exclamation points.

Just sayin.

(BTW, I didn't junk you.)

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 15:50 | 1409772 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Some sick basturd just likes to junk everyone...... must be BEnron

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:28 | 1409313 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture




Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:31 | 1409326 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

DAMN thats like 3 or 4 nuclear disasters going on in the US, and all anyone seems to care about is fucking LULU stocks! WTF!


Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:38 | 1409349 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Perhaps, the leotards are isotope resistant?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 15:49 | 1409770 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture



Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:41 | 1409376 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Reminds me, I need to close out my MMF's and convert before its too late...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:55 | 1409415 kito
kito's picture

yes, reeeeaal lite reading

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:18 | 1409274 redpill
redpill's picture

Paging Mr. Gross, paging Mr. Gross

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:15 | 1409276 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

Are the market chugs higher.  I think I'll hang on to my short positions week could be ugly.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:34 | 1409337 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Today is all AUM (Assets Under Management).  Desks pumping on vapo thin volume to get that one last summer bonus.  Then the massive selling post QE2 to get further QE.  Thursday's the day.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:42 | 1409346 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

Yep, I agree that this vapo-rally will end very soon.  "Good" news out of Greece could push it a bit higher but in the coming weeks and months it's difficult to see what will impel this market higher.  Taking up shorts accordingly and hording cash.


Good luck!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 14:24 | 1409524 kito
kito's picture

yes next week could get ugly, or the week after that or the week after that. funny thing though, it never seems to happen. still waiting.....

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:15 | 1409280 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I starting to think this end of POMO thing is going to work out just fine.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:19 | 1409281 4shzl
4shzl's picture

Squeeze and dump -- just da boyz doin' their thang.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:18 | 1409290 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Come on Robo, I see you junking every post again you little clownfart.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:22 | 1409306 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

When Austerity hits the US, who will pay Robo to troll this website?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:31 | 1409336 Arius
Arius's picture

austerity is for masses not likes of Goldman Saks ... :-) ...just for fun ...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:22 | 1409291 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

and stocks gun higher...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:23 | 1409294 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

It can't be this simple. It would be the most anticipated trade (sell UST's) ever! Something will happen to change this. If not a QE morph the event can and should be pervasive stock selling. Get the 30 day T-Bill all the way back to 12bps and roll out the asset buying spree, yet again. You should own "more" Gold by then.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:25 | 1409302 oogs66
oogs66's picture

we need higher rates on a day when stocks go down to really scare the people.  today is just written off to how strong stocks are, particularly on the back of such 'great' caseshiller numbers

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:26 | 1409308 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep and awesome 'consumer confidence' data as well.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:22 | 1409303 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Robo stop junking every post and just post one of your trademark clown fart posts yourself.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:23 | 1409307 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

i thought higher rates were good for the economy?  they show economic strength.



Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:27 | 1409309 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

No worries.

If the stock market implodes just as everyone here is cheering for, then risk assets will plunge and everyone will flee back into bonds and the U.S. dollar again.

It is a built in put for Bernanke's Perpetual Motion Machine.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:26 | 1409319 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

I tend to agree with you.  When commodities and equities take a dump post-QE, all the anti_USD lemmings will herd right into USDs and Treasuries.  It's the second rule

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:50 | 1409396 Boston
Boston's picture


At least somebody "gets it".

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 15:03 | 1409659 viahj
viahj's picture

and then what?  once the "wealth effect" has vanished, spending will further deteriorate, tax revenues will continue to shrink, welfare spending will continue to increase all which will have what affect on Uncle Sam's credit rating?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:05 | 1410012 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I thought Uncle Sam's rating is beyond discussion.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:27 | 1409325 centerline
centerline's picture

(Sigh)... Two casinos linked by a corridor.  I can hear the chains being wrapped around the doors from the outside though.  Keep your eyes on the exits folks.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:31 | 1409338 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly. Everyone assumes theres always a safe orderly exit out the casino doors, no problem....Ive got a strong hunch it will be like The Who concert this time!

And yes I know that was people trampled to death trying to get IN...well you know what I mean.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 15:07 | 1409671 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

But don't forget, it's not enough to simply run for the exit. You have to get someone else to sit in your seat (i.e. buy your position). And you probably won't get the price you were hoping for.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:35 | 1409350 hambone
hambone's picture

He who bolts first, bolts best!!!  Door looks mighty small and shrinking.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:29 | 1409330 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bernank is a TOOL, just like you Momofader! I hope the fleeing you do is from mobs of rioters swinging nail bats!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:33 | 1409334 richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

i'm not cheering for a stock market collape but the last time it fell i wwas out of wwork for six months. i figure that if i short the market and it falls then at least i will have something to live on while i'm unemployed but if it doesn't fall then i have lost my savings but still have my job

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:39 | 1409366 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Provided that someone actually pays on your shorts and the paper you get is not worthless.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:52 | 1409420 richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

that does keep me awake at nights, but i don't have the resoruces to get phisical in a big way

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:41 | 1409374 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

BTW MomoFader you simple-ass bastard no one 'CHEERS' for the markets to implode...simply bright enough to see the innevitable. I know you love your Pigmen and dream of being one, but youll only ever be a Pigman groupie.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:25 | 1409316 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

The fact that the 5-year yield itself is at 1.571% is mind-numbing.

Even at 2.571% it would still be mind-numbingly low given the necrotic state of the Guvvamint's finances.

Methinks a little perspective is called for.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:54 | 1409411 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture



wake me when it hits 5%

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 15:24 | 1409700 HpDeskjet
HpDeskjet's picture

Are you planning to sleep 20+ years?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:29 | 1409317 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

So... OT2 is a certainty at this point and once the announcement comes it's once & for all.

Rates rising soon? Not on the Bernanks watch.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:26 | 1409323 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Look at IYR (some post the daily chart)?

Check out the yank-and-crank buying to keep it up.  Two huge buying volumes to literally catapult it higher.  They just absolutely can not have it down even one all costs (evidently)

Serious to Christ...this shit has to be just about done.

Now, treasuries shit the bed and the market charges higher?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 14:09 | 1409462 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

looks like you didn't BTFD.  jeezus some people never learn.  don't make it complicated wise guy.  over two years and you're still losing money

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:33 | 1409331 monopoly
monopoly's picture

What is with all this junking? I thought Tyler only allowed grown ups at the site. Kinda like our Congress. Oh never mind. No adults there.

This is working out very well, just taking time.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:36 | 1409342 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its MomoFader, I already caught him doing it on 2 other articles today.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 14:25 | 1409526 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

I have been wondering if it is someone who would like to discredit the site and the regular posters.  This is a weakness of a site feedback system based upon unenforceable negatives. If this person junks all the old posters new traffice to the site may think that they are not very credible.  I would suggest that if this keeps up we might consider nullifying the negative aspect of this system by using it on everyone... constantly, lol.  I think the positive feedback system is less exploitable, such as the solution implemented at Turds site, he did a very nice job with that setup.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:30 | 1409335 Hank Paulson
Hank Paulson's picture

Why do we even issue bonds, we have a monopoly on our currency, we don't need to sell bonds

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 15:06 | 1409655 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

why does "three card monte" need three cards?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:33 | 1409345 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

This is what happens as junk bonds are actually facing an open auction. The Fed withdrawal, as Gross nailed it, will cause a spike across the spectrum of yields above 2 years. They may "want" a steep yield curve but not so steep that it crushes capital investment, which is what will happen.l

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:39 | 1409355 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Everybody is calling for higher yields...everybody.  And didn't yields shoot straight up once QE2 was initiated?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:41 | 1409362 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

SURE free money is exciting! But....what if thats not the game this time around and theyre just letting all the sheeple chew their cud complacent in the conventional wisdom that Bernank is working in their best interests to make sure theres always more green grass?

I wouldnt count on it!!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:43 | 1409370 Arius
Arius's picture

what if ... well thats what separates the weak from the strong ...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:42 | 1409383 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Or those with common sense from the bull headed.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:54 | 1409410 JuicedGamma
JuicedGamma's picture

Commence dumping.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:37 | 1409359 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Ah yes, there is a very real cost for creating capital to fund malinvestment, this is but one affect.  The turd nails it, either the ponzi dies, or QE continues.  No other options.  Hedge accordingly.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:42 | 1409363 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And if QE continues, the Ponzi also dies. 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:44 | 1409391 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

All the remaining canaries are on life support,  soon to be in rigor mortis.  Will anyone connect the dots and leave the Extend and Pretend Mine before it is too late?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:44 | 1409392 JuicedGamma
JuicedGamma's picture

"Horrible"?, "Ugly"? Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.  Finally sanity may be starting to permeate the markets.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:59 | 1409433 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

They will come up with some bullshit, no one ever heard of .  Like pumping salt water on the Fukishima reactors. They know it will fuck the whole system in the long run but who cares about the long run. keep the money pump going no matter what.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:51 | 1409400 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Im sure the people on the back of the Titanic also were saying 'Um, it might bob back up dont ya think'?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 14:00 | 1409409 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

QE is working!  Why stop now?  It is working!  Raise the debt ceiling!  The US will pay it back...eventually..after the DXY whistles one last song.  Seriously, you think Bernanke is sweating?  Neo-Keynsian theory, what is taught in every Major University across the globe, agrees, more debt issuance will fix the problems.  Who cares what the fascist Republicans say?  Their only answer is 'Austerity', which is just as stupid, because only the super rich will benefit from that 'solution'.

No one understands the crux of the problem is that FIAT MONEY IS NOT REAL.  The system is running on pixie dust and unicorn wings.  It is not that the system is no longer functioning- it never did.  First World relies on a Third World.  This is slavery.  Democrats can think they are honorable because they want to issue food stamps, but they wear NKE, they buy APPL products, they promote the slave system.  The system is built on Smithsonian economics, and Adam Smith was pro slavery.  His theory centers around slavery.

So those that follow this theory are slave masters.  Bernanke is a slave master, Obama is a slave master.  But slavery is not sustainable.  The lower class does rise up.  We are seeing that now, but what will they fight for, and who will they fight against?  Is the rebellion centered and focused?  Will it be?  What will we will we find freedom from the system of Smith, the system of slavery?

It is not Keynsian, with more debt issuance with no backing of a real monie.  It is not austerity, which will strip all assets away from the people and give the rich all the access to resources and cheap labor.  No, it is simply that Constitutional Monie must be confirmed, the Fed must be burned to the ground, and State Banks should hold the collateral.  This can happen on a grass roots level if people buy their own gold, silver, and then remember that society is as strong as its weakest link.  People who can start their own bank, or loan gold to the banks, will see a return on their money, as the banks use the gold on loan to issue debt. some silver for the sake of a new system.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 14:06 | 1409465 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

LOL!  those graphas are pretty steep and % delta-huge all right, but 1.36%?  huh?  for five years?  the peeps who locked that in may have had enuf @ that price. we may have seen a  bottom in the 5 years.  hammurabi records 1.28% for the 5's back abt 1750 BCE so this would be abt a 4,000-year low. 

wait!  you want me to loan my money to the USA @ 1.4% for 5 years?  now, that's a whole different dealy!

i don't know the future, but for now, the FED seems to be shutting down some of the firehoZes,  but not mopping up yet.  so, the fire drill continues...  i think they want the long end rates to pay more, so the "financial community" can get the rate carry working.  after all, that is their business, right?  steepen the curve a little, for now. 

unfortunately, there is a delicate balance, with more and more hanging in it, the further we progress in the debtifukation of america.  house 0'cards;  tower of babel;  ponzi non interruptus.  and, interests in the outcome(s) differ widely. 

the internet is pretty cool, really.  got PMs?


Tue, 06/28/2011 - 14:40 | 1409554 ivana
ivana's picture

Dear ZH friends ..... let me present you (trumpets here)



Some limited cash will be available only for those which OBEY

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 14:41 | 1409556 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Shiller was dead wrong. He said rates will fall as investors run to treasuries away form the Euro.

Bill Gross is right...he yelled, "stay away from Treasury Bonds...they will tank."

Looks like fewer and fewer want treasuries.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:52 | 1410618 Alchemist
Alchemist's picture

Really? Since Bill Gross said that Treasuries did nothing but rally.. And now they gave back 20% of that rally.. That makes Bill Gross only 20% less wrong

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 14:41 | 1409569 Finite Supply
Finite Supply's picture

Someone please, please forward the memo to the Russell 2000.


Tue, 06/28/2011 - 14:50 | 1409590 ivana
ivana's picture

how about 2Y surge: from 0,322 to 0,474 !

in just 2 days.

Of course, just after yields were compressed to issue new notes yesterday

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:47 | 1410610 Alchemist
Alchemist's picture

Another dumb comment by ZH.. Let me see, since Bill Gross turned bearish on treasuries 5s rallied 90bps and now they gave 20bps back.. and somehow being 70bps under water rather than 90 vindicates Bill Gross' view..? seriously..!

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