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Horrible Economic Data Continues: ADP Plunges To 38K On Expectations OF 175K; Downward NFP Revisions Next

Tyler Durden's picture


The latest economic data is out and it is horrendous: with expectations for the ADP employment number to come at 175K, following a downward revised 177K print previously, it tumbled to a puny 38K in May. While this number is extremely irrelevant in terms of correlating to the actual NFP number due out this Friday, expect to see a spate of downward NFP revisions on this latest confirmation that the US economy has stalled even with QE2 still in effect for another 29 days (and soon to be extended). From the report: "Today’s ADP National Employment Report suggests that employment growth slowed sharply in May. Employment in the nonfarm private-business sector rose 38,000 from April to May on a seasonally adjusted basis.  A deceleration in employment, while disappointing, is not entirely surprising. In the first quarter, GDP grew at only a 1.8% rate and only about 2¼% over the last four quarters. This is below most economists’ estimate of the economy’s potential growth rate and normally would be associated with very weak growth of employment." Precisely as expected by Zero Hedge.


May’s ADP Report estimates employment in the service-providing sector rose by 48,000, marking 17 consecutive months of employment gains while employment in the goods-producing sector fell 10,000 following six months of increases. Manufacturing employment fell 9,000 in May following seven consecutive monthly gains.

Employment among large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, decreased by 19,000, while employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 30,000. Employment for small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, rose 27,000 in May.

Employment in the construction industry dropped 8,000 in May, completely reversing April’s increase. The total decrease in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 is 2,124,000.

Also, so much for the financial and construction work renaissance:

The only thing now preventing the Fed to begin the push for QE3 is the continuously resilient stock market, which needs to drop at least 15-20% before Bernanke is given a carte blanche. Yet paradoxically, it is stocks' anticipation of QE 3 that makes the actual political case for QE 3 impossible. Geithner upcoming NYT op-ed: "Welcome To The Catch 22."



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Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:22 | 1327968 Bodhi
Bodhi's picture

Not like you can eat a job anyway.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:25 | 1327976 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

I knew he is going to talk about the revisions.. hehe


could we have somethign new here??

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:19 | 1327969 ??
??'s picture

Rosies' Redemption

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:02 | 1328024 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

There IS deflation going on in a big part of the economy.  So Rosie et al are right on that account.  Jobs, homes, small business values.

But there is also inflation based on horrible fiscal and monetary policy that seeks to mask the delfationary effect.  This is the sheer lunacy of the Fed policy.  They have completely missed the investible nature of all commodities now (not as easy in the 70's for retail.)  So end prices are high.  Rosie et al have missed that liquidity exists in all traded markets and doesn't in all others, i.e. higher public stock prices.

Most of the move in most commodities is not demand driven . . . yet.  Because of our previous decade of horrible malinvestment, we will have demand driven price increases eventually.

The moral of the story is monetary intervention does not work to help the economy and can only exacerbate problems.  Unintended consequences will be a BIIIg Bitch this time.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:02 | 1328098 MisterAmbassador
MisterAmbassador's picture

I don't even really consider the deflation - especially in housing - to be deflation.  Those housing prices were artificially inflated with artificially low, centrally planned interest rates.  It only makes sense for them to come back down.

It's just like the inflation in stocks now.  If the Fed wasn't out-of-control, stocks wouldn't be up.  They shouldn't be!  The [real] economy is doing horribly.

Back in the days before my time, if companies or institutions needed to raise money (or so I've been told), they could sell stock to people who actually believed in said company/institution and had a long-term interest in it doing well.  Does anyone really believe LinkedIn will be around in ten years as a profitable endeavor?  Now the stock market is just a casino addicted to QE heroin, only for short-term gains and suckering in the little guy.

We live during a time when it actually makes sense to just scam one another with Ponzi Schemes.

It makes me sick watching all of this.  This isn't Capitalism, but Capitalism is being blamed.  And, there is no way to stop it.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:30 | 1328180 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

while prices of houses were (are) artificially inflated, we're still experiencing deflation and price decreases in these asset classes...  if that is your approach, there is no inflation or deflation possible...  They are temporary phenomena, but phenomena none the less.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:52 | 1328279 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Yes.  Inflation/Deflation are just descriptive phrases of what is going on.  Not value judgements on reasons why.  The value judgement is that Fed is wrong.  They think higher stock prices offset lower home prices (and small business values,etc.),  and therefore keep the economy moving forward.

In fact, they are setting up expectations for a huge drop when stocks correct which will self-reinforce economic collapse on the downside.  i expect the Fed will respond by printing which will cause inflation to continue to exist while economy collapses (otherwise deflationary.)  Bernanke's thesis about the solution to the Great Depression are about to be proved horribly wrong.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 13:38 | 1329511 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Bernake was the perfect shill to provide plausible deniability...  when the bush stimulus checks went to pay down debt and not kick start the economy, he had all the information he needed...  after multiple successive attempts, he's apparently still looking for confirmation in good faith?  He never had a reasonable thesis...  he just had something palatable in a world of bullshitting in a captured academic environment...  it is impossible to make sincere theses when your paycheck depends on you doing otherwise.  He has continued to defend himself for the same reason...

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:05 | 1328322 MisterAmbassador
MisterAmbassador's picture

Yes, I agree with the technical definition of deflation.  But, to base Fed policy off of that deflation in prices that should never have been that high (trying to get them back up there) is just going to inflate things that were not artificially inflated (at least to such a degree).

You could make the prices go back up by burning down all vacant houses and houses with mortgages underwater.  That would change the actual supply/demand dynamic.

The inflation wasn't real supply/demand driven.  Many peole wouldn't have bought houses or at least such expensive houses, if interest rates were where they should have been.  The deflation is just the correction.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 13:33 | 1329487 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Fed policy is not based on housing...  housing is the smoke screen for the tribute payments to the first tier of our overlords.  If you create policy to help housing, but your only desire is to recapitalize banks and/or give them longer to prepare for the tidal wave, then you have no policy on housing...  you have a policy for recapitalizing banks.  Housing is just being benefitted as an ancillary issue...

And no, even burning houses isn't going to make the prices go up...  I suppose in some incredibly extreme example, possibly, but in our example the wherewithal to pay for houses is decreasing (wages) and demographic factors are incentivizing people to huddle and cooperate in houses together, rather than purely as a solo endeavor (previous boom model)...  not only is there a laughable amount of oversupply, the supply is increasing faster than we have the means to tear them down or burn them...  not that we should do so...  ever...

You're looking at this the wrong way...  THE MASSES WILL ALWAYS GORGE THEMSELVES ON DEBT...  the demand is ALWAYS there by the mouth breathers.  Many people wouldn't have bought houses if there were not government mandates to put them in homes and/or accommodative policies to ensure lenders made loans...  tack on the ability to game the system via lax oversight and you've got a recipe for disaster.  Interest rates are immaterial to people who wander aimlessly through the world but for their consumption.  If interest rates increase, all that means is the monthly payment is more and, therefore, the sale price has to decrease accordingly, given stagnant wages/perpetual inability to pay/save.

Further, higher interest rates would have done nothing to curb deficit spending by our government...  which is ultimately the real story, not housing.

[and no you do not know what deflation is...  (hint: at least make reference to the money supply when you use the term)...  decreases in prices may occur during inflationary as well as deflationary periods].

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 05:41 | 1331677 MisterAmbassador
MisterAmbassador's picture

Whoa.  Getting a little hostile.  Well, there are several ways you can discuss deflation.  You don't need to reference the money supply.  Economically speaking, deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services.

Fed policy isn't based directly on housing, duh.  That's not what I was saying.  But, the falling home prices (which were artificially inflated), are affecting the data (or the equations the Fed uses to arrive at the data they insist on using for policy) and allowing them to make an argument to keep deflation from occurring by using monetary policy.

Velocity of money, etc from a monetarist perspective.  That's fine.

Anyway, while some people or even the masses will borrow and borrow and borrow, they wouldn't be able to do that, if the Federal Reserve didn't give the banks/institutions cheap money to take excessive risks with and those banks/institutions were held in check by by not wanting to lose money, rather than being further encouraged to take excessive risks knowing they were too-big-to-fail and falling prey to moral hazard.

If we didn't have a Federal Reserve setting monetary policy and allowed markets to set interest rates with sound money, then we could just burn down the over-supply.  However, the oversupply wouldn't have developed in the first place.  Markets would keep things moderated.  We wouldn't have these huge bubbles form and then burst.  Those addicted to debt heroin would be cut off much too soon by the lending banks/institutions unwilling to risk losses for huge bubbles affecting the entire economy to form.  Would happen in certain regions, but not the entire economy.  It wouldn't be systemic.

I don't think you can deny there is an over-supply in housing (whether be literal houses or houses that were built too extravagantly).  Trying to increase demand by expanding housing programs and keeping interest rates artificially low doesn't let the housing prices fall to where they should be, given that there is an over-supply.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 10:08 | 1332117 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

There have been too many discussions on here about the true definition of inflation and deflation, but I think without a doubt, at this point, given the extrapolations one arrives at because of the definition (see generally big ben), the "general consensus" definition has now proven to be laughably incorrect and the alternative definition of the austrians has become our frontrunner... 

The falling home prices are not affecting the data used by the fed to measure inflation.  You have your cause and effect backwards.  The definition and composition of the metrics change to achieve the fed's and the administration's/congress' policy goals...  not vice versa.

Free markets are like unicorns...  I've never had the chance to see one, only heard about them, and there are no buried unicorn bones to be found.

If the federal reserve did not set rates, do you think that the authority and ability to set rates would be foregone by congress?  Do you think that it would lead to any materially different result?  I think you're overlooking the structural problems with our form of governance...  (two wolves and a sheep without any food trying to decide what's for dinner).  The boom and bust (however they may manifest themselves) would have developed anyway...  and will continue to develop...

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:24 | 1327972 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Now...someone tell my why the XRT has been going ape shit.  Oh yeah, because it is made to be Wall Street's synthetic buyer of all overpriced and soon to be plunging retail stocks.  Never mind.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:41 | 1328035 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Brother Cdad,

Something needs to do the heavy lifting in the current fraud until the next rotation.

Don't blame the XRT, blame the people manipulating the XRT. :>)

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:56 | 1328079 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Brother Cog,

Indeed...and there are a lot of folk manipulating the XRT.  After all, their task is to make that instrument take them out of ridiculously priced issues like Abercrombie and see.  It takes a village of corrupt criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers to exit profitably on such equity schemes as these, I guess.  As far as I know, you cannot eat a $30 T-shirt or a streaming movie.

As a reminder, and last I checked, there are more shares of the XRT sold short than exist.  It has something to do with creation units machines and selling infinity shares on a finite supply of underlying equity....but I am a little man, not schooled in the ways of criminal syndicate Wall Street banking what do I know?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:24 | 1327973 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

i'm shocked, SHOCKED.


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:21 | 1327974 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Weather was too hot.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:26 | 1327993 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

That will actually be this month's excuse.....


Here is the reason for the past month across the midwest.....


"Whatever you do, don't put the blame on you...." <---Bankster's mantra


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:24 | 1328146 nevadan
nevadan's picture

Not enough snow  :)

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:24 | 1327975 flyr1710
flyr1710's picture

it's transitory

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:26 | 1327978 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Wait a second. Wasn't the ADP "completely discredited" and should be "entirely ignored"? So why should we pay attention now once it reports numbers to the downside?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:31 | 1328004 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Because to Wall Street lemmings this number is actually relevant. Get it?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:56 | 1328074 in-Credible Banker
in-Credible Banker's picture

So...has anyone run a scatterplot plot of the ADP number to the ensuing NFP number, over time?  Fitted a line to it?  What's the r squared???





Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:33 | 1328014 tmosley
tmosley's picture

ADP numbers are always reported here.  They are discredited to intelligent people, but not to the lemmings.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:45 | 1328048 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Whatever the markets deem as "information" is relevant.

The allure of instantaneous reaction and manufactured arbitrage is trumping fundamental truths and macro analysis.  The Bigger Fool game has been relegated to a 5-minute window.

Alas, one more Jenga block pulled from the bottom...

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:23 | 1327979 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I want someone to defend those dim wits Bernanke and Krugman now.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:49 | 1328051 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

We'll need a medium to summon Johnnie Cochran.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:03 | 1328089 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Bullwinkle: "Shh, the spirits are about to speak."

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:11 | 1328114 JohnG
JohnG's picture

If it smells like shit, you must convict.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:26 | 1327981 oogs66
oogs66's picture

if only data mattered, all this ensures is more greek and qe3 rumors...qe2 sucked for everything except stocks and pm's

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:23 | 1327982 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

38K.  Need ~150K just for new entrants...probablyt 500K in May when college graduates hit the labor force.....




Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:29 | 1327992 whoopsing
whoopsing's picture

....All those broke-ass kid's with nothing to do ..........

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:12 | 1328116 Anaxagoras
Anaxagoras's picture

Not to worry, BLS will print +250K for May, thanks to its secret job-creating Birth-Death model and its ability to "disappear" another half-million or so unemployed into "marginal attachment."

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:23 | 1327983 2DollarBill
2DollarBill's picture

Not to worry...just a bit of "softness" related to Japan Effect.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:24 | 1328155 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

"softness" is everywhere -Australia, China, Europe, Japan - the Germans even have some softness.

Viagra will not do it. 

Ben Bernanke has some powerful voodoo meds (so I'm told) but the cost/benefits are way to rich for all.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:23 | 1327984 youngman
youngman's picture

This is a week the Economists will be talking about forever.....maybe its time to change their models.....and how are the Politicians spionning it....good news....saves the enviroment....less CO2...LOL.....and of course gold and silver down....Fiat to the moon

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:38 | 1328029 breezer1
breezer1's picture

gold moving now.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:27 | 1327985 djsmps
djsmps's picture

After the way the market reacted yesterday, I would expect a bullish day on this news.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:28 | 1327988 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

A 80% miss on ADP, up will step Sandra Pianalto to grease the skids for further QE.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:25 | 1327989 iinthesky
iinthesky's picture

CNBC word of the day... UNEXPECTED

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 13:19 | 1329431 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

That has been the word for the past 3 years...that and "Recovery."

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:28 | 1327991 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture


Due to unusually bad news in employment, the Dow Jones Industrial Index has temporarily retreated in pre-market hours. 

DO NOT ADJUST YOUR LONG POSITIONS. The Plunge Protection Team is working on this issue and should have it resolved between the trading hours of 10am and 12 noon. 

Thank you for your patience. 

Kind Regards, 

The Powers That Be. 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:28 | 1328173 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

Follow-up: Looks like the Ponzi Protection Team got an early start. About a 1/3 of the drop (on the news) has already retraced even before the bell. 

Damn these folks have some talent. 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:26 | 1327994 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

The people demand Mark Zandi:

Zandi said he is still convinced that the economy has enough fundamental strength to pick up speed in the second half of the year when the impact of the Japanese disaster recedes and-hopefully-oil prices decline. "I'm a little disappointed we haven't seen a pick-up in homes sales yet but at least they aren't going down. It's premature to conclude that the housing market isn't going to continue improving ... Most fundamentally American businesses are marking a lot of money. Earnings are very strong. Balance sheets are healthy. It's not a question of ability to hire. It's a question of willingness. ... I think people will feel measurably better a year from now and all the trend lines will be clearly positive."

I think Zandi said the same thing at this time in 2009, and 2010. One expects the hat trick to be completed this time next year.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:33 | 1328016 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Zandi is missing one huge fact; the Japanese crisis is not over. Reactor 1 has melted down literally into a "China Syndrome" style of lava flow and is seeping into the dry well. From there it will melt into the water table and once the steam pressure builds up BOOM again. Not to mention Reactor 5 is acting poorly now and the destruction and contamination of the northern 1/3rd of the Japanese isles is just beginning. Add in the fact that containers were rejected in Belgium and Holland last week from Japan as they were too hot and the problems for the world economy are just starting, not ending.

FWIW, word is plans are being made to evacuate upwards of 70-100K in the northern suburbs of Tokyo soon, so when that starts that will tank their markets totally and take ours with them.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:54 | 1328067 breezer1
Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:56 | 1328072 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

When rice hits $20 again because of Japan and China, there will be panic. Lots of it.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:26 | 1328153 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

That's nice.  No longer a need for candle light at dinner.  Just relax and enjoy the ambient glow of the rice.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:32 | 1328175 zoomer
zoomer's picture


Could you please email me?


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 12:22 | 1329158 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 13:27 | 1329441 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Someone has a crush.  It's those dark deep set eyes and those whiskers.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 18:39 | 1330644 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Wonder how many spam lists he's on by now....

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:43 | 1328247 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Japan won't harvest it because they can't consume or export it. And China's production is projected to be down 20-35% and that is a Communist Party optimistic estimate. The drought is about to start shutting factories down, watch and see. I figure right when the Fed drops its bomb this month, the ChiComs will drop the 2 to 3 day shut down period for manufacturing in some regions due to electricity shortages.

Other than that, glowing rice sounds like a great marketing idea:


The Sendai treat.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:47 | 1328262 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Oh say can you see by the dawn's early (rice) light.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:00 | 1328080 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

It is truly a "worst case" scenario/event in every way imaginable. Cognitive dissonance and normalcy bias are powerful weapons when wielded by the elite, especially when combined with one of the most effective media/news blackouts that I've ever witnessed.

Planet Earth will never be the same. The genetic mutations in the global ecosystem will serve as a permanent ELE.


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:22 | 1328140 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Gee, GE!

"GE" We bring good things to Life...............

(Radiation poisoning I am sure was not considered in that marketing jingle).

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 13:49 | 1329477 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Isn't it; Making things LIGHT...

Before we know it GE will go Monsanto and try to tell us that without chemicals life itself would be impossible so we need to enjoy the radiation.  After all, Angelo Mozillo & the Kardashians pay top dollar to glow like that

Miss Expectations, Trent put Topsy right before this gem on a 2hr video version of Closure a few years ago

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:34 | 1328018 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

"I'm a little disappointed we haven't seen a pick-up in homes sales yet but at least they aren't going down.


Bolded emphasis see this


"Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell last week, pulled lower by a decline in refinancing demand, an industry group said Wednesday.


The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell nearly 4 percent in the week ended May 27.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications lost 5.7 percent, even as interest rates tumbled."

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:56 | 1328073 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Balance sheets are healthy. It's not a question of ability to hire. It's a question of willingness.

Of course balance sheets are healthy.  That's the most obvious outcome of negative real interest rates.  Refinance, goose "earnings" via inflated prices, don't dare hire anyone as that would amount to a transfer payment since there's no real production increase, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Zandi is a finalist for Head in Sand award.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:27 | 1328163 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Maybe Zandi got the correlation/causation thingy wrong.

Corporate profits up because they are laying off those lazy, good-for-nothing, leech workers.  The remaining employees are laboring under the lash of layoff threats, long hours, and the general Snidley Whiplash atmosphere.  

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:30 | 1327995 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Its allergy season

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:39 | 1328030 nantucket
nantucket's picture

EXACTLY!  and after that it will be cold and flu season, so...when the data suck this fall/winter they'll have that excuse also.  ain't it grand.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:46 | 1328044 earnulf
earnulf's picture

Blame the Tornados for the miss!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:26 | 1328436 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Wait, WAIT! You can't leave out hurricane season, vacations, back to school, 9/11 remembrances, no NFL football season, the end of baseball season, Halloween and right into the holiday season.

Seasonality will cripple the markets until 2012. See you on the other side.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:31 | 1328000 pat53
pat53's picture

Dow will close above 12,600... these numbers are completely meaningless

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:30 | 1328001 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

WSJ had a consensus of 190K and this was such a bad miss it is not even funny. To make matters worse, the Fed is looking for any statistic to grasp to declare "no more QE" and "we support a strong dollar" so when this sucker tanks in 3 weeks, don't be shocked....

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:34 | 1328003 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Remember "Speechless.....just Speechless"

One wonders who got an advance on the absolutely horrific economic numbers that are being released this week?

Yeah for wealth effect!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:44 | 1328046 taraxias
taraxias's picture


give this woman a stogie

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:51 | 1328068 Bob
Bob's picture

Nice catch!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:55 | 1328076 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

+1 lizzy

What about the Morgue's day-ahead "no way Jose" head fake on QE3.  I'm wondering why they didn't wait until tomorrow, after initial jobless claims "fall" from a revised 437K to 418K (my swag)...

BTW, I'm drawn better than you.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 13:25 | 1329434 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Thwack !!  Lizzy channels her inner Campbell

The CME and those that give it its marching orders have been keeping their heads down for FAR too long

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 14:51 | 1329734 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I like what you say...but I woudn't trust you near a football.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:35 | 1328008 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I know...we should just grossly [more grossly] misallocate more capital into Netflix.  That should fix it.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:33 | 1328188 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Netflix valuation is rather suspect, of course, but I am a fan.  I can make my own popcorn for less than $10 and I don't have to wear a jacket in a frigid theater.   My family made the decision to spring for a 50 incher, BluRay player, and a Netflix subscription.  Those baubles are already paid for with the savings from not attending the latest must-see movie within 24 hours of its release.

Recall the Depression when cheap thrills brought people to the cool movie theater or the spectacle of the dance marathon.   People cutting back on expenses will migrate to more home entertainment, and those last gasping dollars will trickle into a movie theater to be sure.   Maybe Netflix will grow into those over-sized pantaloons?   OK, maybe not.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:34 | 1328019 youngman
youngman's picture

But the 10 year is about to break 3%.....go figure...who is buying this crap...

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:39 | 1328021 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

Just waiting on goolsbee to come out and try to spin this as "winning the future". What a joke.


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:38 | 1328022 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

Starring Chairsatan ''acting as'' Yossarian ''the Bombardier''

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:36 | 1328023 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

another transitory soft patch in our economic expansion    /sarc off

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:37 | 1328194 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The only "soft patch" is in the heads of officialdom.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:43 | 1328031 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Hmm, so this means the dollar gets pummelled again and the stocks go up another 2% today...


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:41 | 1328036 earnulf
earnulf's picture


Start practicing those bartering skills, also gardening, hand tool use (without power of course) and make sure the bicycle is ready to go.

I'm afraid that once the rug gets pulled out from under the sheeple there are going to get a lot of disconnected folks walking around as the living dead, wondering where the Starbucks went and why is all the gas gone!

Having a way to start a fire is also a handy item.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:33 | 1328471 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Bartering, check, though I still prefer AU or AG. Garden, check, tomatoes, celery, three kinds of peppers, squash, tobacco. 2 bikes up and useful, 1 extra under repair. Hand tools galore. Water stored in basement with canned veggies. Building wood-fired roasting pit in back yard, solar heaters, check, check, check.

Hmmm... lots of stick matches, strike on anything.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:41 | 1328037 LibertyIn2010
LibertyIn2010's picture

I blame the cicadas

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:44 | 1328233 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

those damn things are deafening

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:41 | 1328038 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

You know shit's bad when the cheerleaders at ADP print lousy numbers.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:11 | 1328122 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Roger that - this tells you how f#*ked everything is, if ADP's fake numbers still fall ridiculously short

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:46 | 1328042 flyr1710
flyr1710's picture

and ES Mini margins were announced lowered yesterday afternoon...amazing timing

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:46 | 1328043 flyr1710
flyr1710's picture

and ES Mini margins were announced lowered yesterday afternoon...amazing timing

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:48 | 1328050 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Is this risk-on or risk-off, the market cant seem to work it out?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:50 | 1328058 Marge N. Callz
Marge N. Callz's picture

Gimme a Q!!!  Gimme an E!!!!  Gimme a 3!!!!!  What does it spell?!?!?!  Fuck the dollar!!!!!!!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:38 | 1328198 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I'm really sick of you Fed cheerleaders.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:45 | 1328946 Marge N. Callz
Marge N. Callz's picture

I guess I need a sarcasm on, off button for you creatures of the night.  QE3 is all the buzz on CNBS today.  They need to quit with the fancy names and just admit that we are in fact Japan.  Sad but true.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 12:24 | 1329169 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

We're smarter than you might imagine.  My sarc button is out at the cleaners so I have an excuse.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:51 | 1328066 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

What does a dismal ADP report matter re. this Ponzi FUBAR economy. The central banks around the world can simply create more of their own fiat currency and fix everything.  Look for more positive returns in stawkes.  After all, it is the ONLY trick the Fed has up its sleeve.  Just don't blame them for surging food and energy prices.  The Ben Bernanke might get testy with you.


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:55 | 1328069 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Our 1,000 piece puzzle is starting to take shape. Another piece just fit in.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:55 | 1328070 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

As predicted, economy will be slumping it's way through the year, waiting for more QE (or call it stimulus du jour since they might be too embarrassed to call it QE3) . 

No effort whatsoever was made to re-structure, re-tool the economy for the new realities. Result? A maladaptive mess that feeds on itself. 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:55 | 1328071 White.Star.Line
White.Star.Line's picture

Slowing worldwide manufacturing numbers.
US Economy stagnant.
Unemployment remaining high.
Stocks poised for a fall.

May I suggest a bit of monetary easing as a sure-fire cure?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:40 | 1328210 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

If you don't yet believe what was said above then go here and take a look at the red crayon markdowns.

Its doing nothing but taking on water

Book mark it, get a feel for the real world

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:57 | 1328081 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

This should be sufficiently negative enough to push us to a +3% close.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:01 | 1328094 sgorem
sgorem's picture

can anyone spell  D*E*P*R*E*S*S*I*O*N ?????

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:04 | 1328104 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Fearless prediction-Market drops at the open, down to about Dow -90, then quickly rebounds to around Dow -65, before slowly drifting to +35 by about 3pm. 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:30 | 1328156 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

probably's that 3:00-4:00 wild card that'll show the tale UP or DOWN. Am still counting on yeaterdays ramp job being 50% (min) EOM window dressing

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:18 | 1328130 espirit
espirit's picture

38 K net jobs after MickeyD's hires 66,000?

Hmm, they must have let go about 28,000 temps.

Maybe why the markets ramped up yesterday, all bullshish - lol.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:26 | 1328154 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Outsourcing. Automation. Illegal immigration. Demand saturation. Downsizing. Extended working lives. Suffocating government-related compliance costs. Those factors already serve a recipe for a bad employment prospects. Add in the collapse of the residential R.E. sector, insane debt levels among certain segments of the "middle class", especially those living on the coasts and the young, and so, what's left to drive employment growth??? More debt-fueled consumption? That's not happening. Ask yourselves-- what will my kid do for a living? A hard question today.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:47 | 1328263 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

It's easy what your kid will do for a living...  he'll walk down the trail you blaze before collapse.  If you have nothing, your child will likely have nothing.  Obviously there are exceptions (determination can overcome a lot, especially when mated with intelligence) but, it will be this way for quite a while (already is really).

If you have nothing at the moment, but want to ensure you have a seat at the table, the best thing to do is get as cheap of an education as possible in the most practical fields possible...  largely meaning trade school.  Your knowledge can be passed down regardless of the future credit and educational systems.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:17 | 1328395 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Your advice is very solid, but remember, things have gotten to the point where the best-laid plans can come to naught.  I know an Ivy League Ph.D. in chemistry, laid off, working part-time as a substitute h.s. teacher.  Cheaper to hire a just-off-the boat Asian, who has received a free education, for lab work. So many kids with useless/quasi-useless college degrees, drifting around, waiting tables.  Engineering-- feast or famine.  Military hardware industries are keeping that profession afloat.  Your trade school idea is the most solid choice.  Don't take a penny in student loans, live close to the ground, keep your options open.  A humanities degree from Overpriced Private U. isn't such a good choice for the non-independently wealthy.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 13:42 | 1329527 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

There will be many rich farmers made by approaching todays farmers and asking to be taught the trade for room and board...  no one there wants to pick up the torch...  if formal education is not an option, informal apprenticeship should be the easy next choice.


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:27 | 1328158 AssFire
AssFire's picture

I've said it before and I'll say it again,, We are now two separate nations:

One that works (in the private sector) and pays taxes vs those that live off the stolen wealth of the taxpayer. <We are the new slaves>

We prefer to be our own nation. In Texas we reject the welfare state and hope we can finally shed the nation that forced it's citizens at gunpoint to enslave us.


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:58 | 1329030 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Contrary to the lies often repeated by the socialists, Texas pays more in taxes than it receives from the Feds. The biggest welfare states are New York and Connecticut, which received trillions in bailout money the past few years for AIG, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley etc.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:33 | 1328189 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Whispers of about 52 for today's ISM off from expected 57.5 and last month's 60.4.

Down 13% m-o-m - HOLY S**T

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:36 | 1328190 Jack Mehoff
Jack Mehoff's picture

At this point Shorting the ES is becoming an exercise in futility.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:37 | 1328214 zoomer
zoomer's picture

Rocky, Could you please email me? Thanks

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:43 | 1328227 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

You want to run stats on known bogus data?


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:10 | 1328340 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I've been asking that for about a year of chartists and all sorts of creepie-crawlies.  The short answer, I think, is that the delta matters.  Hard to fake that, but data quality deserves more attention.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:01 | 1328292 smithcreek
smithcreek's picture

You guys are all so gloomy.  I just read Bloomberg and the two quotes that stuck with me were:

Another report today showed employers announced fewer job cuts in May than a year earlier, signaling the labor market is improving.


Some companies are already looking beyond the temporary slowdown and are making plans to expand payrolls further in 2012.

Less people fired in the future and the "slowdown" has already been declared "temporary", no need to panick.  Not sure, but I don't think Bloomberg even acknowledged there was a slowdown until this jobs report came out this morning, but it must be no biggee since the sages at that POS have already foreseen it's temporariness, just a bump in the road on Recovery Summer Part II.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:55 | 1328293 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

And the bloodbath for NFP continues - SMRA est 100k from 200k.

So we can expect 50k.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:57 | 1328301 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Dammit, "Print and Pray" hasn't done a dam thing for jobs. Now what do they do? Loot Social Security and give the loot to the Morbidly Rich seems to be the consensus.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 12:02 | 1329059 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

They're not going to loot the morbidly rich. They will loot the upper middle class and small to medium business owners.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:07 | 1328312 Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

Are there no bankruptcy courts?

Are there no lawyers?

Walk Away on 1/3 the homes and let the banks


6 million homes defaulted, make it 12 million

and walk away and live there 2 years no rent.

Or better yet, let Niki dig a big hole in Las Vegas and dump all the empty 1/3 homes in Florida in it, with the 1:2 homes in vegas.

A big big BIG hole.

We dont need no stinkin banksters.

Do what Chicago Mayor "Freddie Krueger"

Rahm is doing.....


Open a Casino......LOL  so we can skim it.

and get that Dummy imposter off the tv screen, get Paul Giamatti back on as the real

"Dancing with the Printers" FED star.

'and Toto Timmy too.'





Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:46 | 1328550 horologist
horologist's picture

This was the lead-in to this story on my local (Albuquerque) radio station…

“The Recession is lifting, but housing prices are in an even worse slump than in 2008.”

Right out of the doublspeak play book.

If you don’t count food, gas, housing, unemployment, WE’RE DOING JUST FINE!

place of refuge 2012 dot com

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 13:32 | 1329466 johngerard
johngerard's picture

Great headline on CNBC's website:

"Wall St. Baffled by Weak Growth"

Beautiful. Just beautiful.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 14:35 | 1329680 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

The economic data always favors the TPTB's will to extract more theft from the peasantry.  In the end, no matter the silly meaningless talk of recovery or double dips-- it's the fact that we never truly have recovered and never will until we take care of the strucutral imbalances within this economy.  Anything else until then is this pointless seesaw of deflation and inflation as risks to the economy when it's the actual economic policy makers that pose the greatest risk to the possibility of our prosperity.

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