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Housing Double Dip Accelerates As Existing Home Sales Plunge -2.2% In May Versus 6.0% Consensus, Down From 8% In April

Tyler Durden's picture




 

May existing home sales plunged far below expectations, coming in at an
annualized -2.2% rate, compared to consensus of 6.0%, and a revised 8%
in April. This is the second worst monthly drop in history, and shows
just how very wrong economists are, and how they will all have to
revise their outlooks lower, for all macro indicators including GDP.
The plunge occurred even despite near record low 30 year mortgage
rates: the Freddie 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to
4.89 percent in May
from 5.10 percent in April; the rate was 4.86 percent in May 2009. The
push forward effect of the administration's various subsidies is now
over and a double dip is likely now inevitable unless yet another
stimulus plan is implemented. There is nothing quite like the
administration finding a scapegoat du jour: first it was snow in
winter, then hot weather in the spring, now it is the oil spill: "Florida and
Louisiana, also impacted by the oil spill, have the highest percentage
of homes that require flood insurance
."

From NAR press release:

Existing-home sales remained at elevated
levels in May on buyer response to the tax credit, characterized by
stabilizing home prices and historically low mortgage interest rates,
according to the National Association of Realtors®. Gains in the West
and South were offset by a decline in the Northeast; the Midwest was
steady.

Existing-home sales1,
which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes,
condominiums and co-ops, were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
5.66 million units in May, down 2.2 percent from an upwardly revised
surge of 5.79 million units in April. May closings are 19.2 percent
above the 4.75 million-unit level in May 2009; April sales were revised
to show an 8.0 percent monthly gain.

Lawrence Yun,
NAR chief economist, said he expects one more month of elevated home
sales. “We are witnessing the ongoing effects of the home buyer tax
credit, which we’ll also see in June real estate closings,” he said.
“However, approximately 180,000 home buyers who signed a contract in
good faith to receive the tax credit may not be able to finalize by the
end of June due to delays in the mortgage process, particularly for
short sales.

 “In addition, many potential sales are being delayed by an
interruption in the National Flood Insurance Program. Florida and
Louisiana, also impacted by the oil spill, have the highest percentage
of homes that require flood insurance
.”As the leading advocate for homeownership
issues, NAR is supporting Senate amendments to extend the home buyer
tax credit closing deadline through September 30 for contracts written
by April 30, and to renew the flood insurance program. “Sales and
related local economic activity would have been higher without delays
in the closing process or flood insurance issues,” Yun noted.

 

 

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Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:17 | 426616 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Down, bitchez

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:29 | 426640 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Tax credit, bitchez.

Binding contracts needed to be in place by April 30...did you notice April was revised higher?  Demand was pulled forward.  I'm not at all surprised May dropped like a rock.  Look at auto sales around cash for clunkers, it was the same pattern...spike followed by drop...the only question is whether we'll see a steady incline in the coming months (as we did with auto sales).

That being said, I'll admit the surveyed economists must have been smoking crack given the consensus estimate.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:38 | 426665 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

WATCH THE PPT LIVE AND IN ACTION...

 

DRV is a triple bear housing ETF......it has gained just ten cents since the numbers....tens of thousands of shares of this are being SOLD....who is selling  THIS....NOW?

ah......i'm from the government, i'm here to help...

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:54 | 426706 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

still up 10% since yesterday, and moving

thanks for the ticker - does it exist in double bear also?

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:18 | 426617 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

So the equity markets should skyrocket on this news right?  Gold should get hammered and all financials to the moon?  This analyst stuff is easy.  Just waiting for the networks to give me a call. 

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:35 | 426653 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

+1

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:18 | 426619 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

And SPX dropped a whole 2 points! With all the negative news over the past couple of weeks, it's pretty astonishing that we're not sitting below 1000 SPX today.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:23 | 426628 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Perhaps, if any humans were trading this market...

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:27 | 426631 subqtaneous
subqtaneous's picture

 

I believe someone recently said:

 


Stupid, Rapacious, Arbitrary, Capricious And Downright Ridiculous

 

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:28 | 426635 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

It's desperation time, Harry. We stand at the precipice. It is close to unraveling.

1) Stocks NOT allowed to go down.

2) Crimex faces delivery emergency for June.

3) BP heads toward zero in the face of unending spill and hurricanes.

4) The entire Middle East is playing brinksmanship.

5) European banks insolvent.

Too many holes to plug. Too many moles to whack. Whatever metaphor you want to use is fine, just know that the "system" is about to collapse.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:44 | 426682 Young
Young's picture

It's not just the bots (although mostly), the buy on dips/buy and hold folks of the 40s, 50s and 60s think this is a bargain (I should stop speaking to these people if they are not frequent ZH visitors)... This is starting to resemble the Steven Seagal movie Hard to kill. Steve plays the market. Close to death he gets help from his little jewish bearded friend Benny Boom and he manages to claw back from certain death... All the while I'm just thinking: Why won't you just die Steve, just fucking die. My apologies Steve, don't kill me just cause I used you as an example. Please don't kill me :(

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:49 | 426696 RobD
RobD's picture

Funniest Seagal youtube video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkskuSXqUD0

 

 

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:55 | 426710 Young
Young's picture

Jesus, Steve not only runs like a girl, he runs like a re-tard. "Excuse me Allen, it's called a reeeetard". Look at his hands...

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:04 | 426721 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Ease up!  The transition from Stephanie was tough.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:10 | 426734 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

First good laugh of the day. Thank you RR.

NOW I know why I haunt ZH. :>)

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:18 | 426751 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

Jesus turd, I've heard the same crap now for three years. Still waiting for "the whole system" to collapse...

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:46 | 426688 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

It's amazing to me that it's not up further on the end-of-quarter markup pre-game show.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:20 | 426624 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Well...the 28-day bill is showing 1 bp again today, same as yesterday.

Would seem to me that there is significant money wanting nothing to do with stocks.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:23 | 426629 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Housing Double Dip Accelerates..."

This isn't what CNBC's Bob Piss-on-me said, though he did admit that we can't even have a leveling off in home sales but a continuous rise if we're to fully recover.

But he went on to declare that all the economic news is great except housing sales. What planet is Bob Piss-on-me from anyway? Sirus?

http://www.sirius.com/

Opps, not that Sirius. This one. :>)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sirius

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:32 | 426644 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Bob Pisani is not just your regular, run-of-the-mill douchebag. He's a gigantic, jizz-infused, yeast-infected, mildew-lined, sulfur-stenched douche balloon. 

The worst of the worst.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:35 | 426655 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Don't hold back TF, tell us what you really think. :>)

BTW who's doing the jizz infusing? Just askin'.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:43 | 426677 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Dennis Kneale and Steve Liesman after pulling a train on Maria.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:46 | 426686 Young
Young's picture

1+

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:40 | 426672 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 Pisani should just go off into a corner and fist himself....

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:43 | 426680 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

What do you think he's doing when he's not on camera?

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:19 | 426752 aheady
aheady's picture

Coffee just came out of my nose.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:10 | 426859 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Pisani was recently told by a specialist that he suffered from an intestinal blockage that could be easily remedied if he would just remove his head from his ass.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:39 | 427099 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I would have paid $99.95 for that pay-per-view. Best $100 I would've blown for 10 seconds of fun.

Well, second best. :>)

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:57 | 427155 The Rock
The Rock's picture

i think he prefers a circle jerk with his buddies down on the floor

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:38 | 426652 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

And through the Dog-Star reference, we find another Dog Star and his arch enemy up to no good.  Hey wait a minute, this plot seems to have "just" a few things to say about the present calamity.  Is someone resource grabbing?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhvZYULhy3Y

Or outcome steering...

you can watch the whole thing or 4:50 to 5:10, for instance.

Same script writers?

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:37 | 426657 Double down
Double down's picture

He is not from the "Big Dog", I never saw him there

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:38 | 426663 Calculated_Risk
Calculated_Risk's picture

Can't stand bob.. it's like he gets a bonus for every ass he kisses.

< smooch, jobless recovery! > ding! $100k

< smooch, housing is great! > ding! $100k

< smooch, equities are undervalued! > ding! $100k

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:23 | 426630 yabs
yabs's picture

yeah easy to spin

although the spill is likely to affect property values adversly in the short term

as well as tourism ,fishing industries and future oil drilling the economy is fundamentally strong and investors should concentrate on the big picture

and the nascent recovery.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:27 | 426632 M. Barr
M. Barr's picture

Damn you BP!

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:29 | 426637 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Just think, if we didn't have that oil spill how great home sales would have been. Problem is we DO have that oil spill. Spin it any way you want, we DO have an oil spill and it ain't going away any time soon.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:39 | 426670 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Not to mention that its also not the root cause of the slump in housing.  Nevertheless, the news generally doesn't move the markets, although after that little relief rally over the past few weeks I expect the market's ready to recognize this as bad news, even if the CNBC/Bloomberg cheerleaders aren't.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:29 | 426641 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Don't worry, people, builders association says it "could" have been a jam in the pipeline - buyers couldn't close in time. Right.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:40 | 426671 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

That happens when you haven't paid your other mortgage in 2 years

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 15:52 | 427504 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Oh there is a "jam in the pipeline" alright. When it finally shifts someone's going to need a lot of tissues to clean up after the porcelain gets sprayed - bigtime!

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:34 | 426647 yabs
yabs's picture

wow has even harry capitulated?

is this the time to short?

 

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:34 | 426648 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

All part of the plan. Bring on QE 2.0. 

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:45 | 426803 Attitude_Check
Attitude_Check's picture

Yep,  I am beginning to seriously believe that is "the plan", then once Hyperinfltion kicks-in, intentionally spike the Gold-price (stop/reverse the price manipulation and let he COMEX detonate).

 With Gold at some insane price point, issue the "new-dollar" that is Gold-backed, and all the "old dollar" debt becomes nearly worthless.  The hope is they can hang-on long enough that China's inflation and malinvestment driven by thier foolish $-peg causes them to explode.

The new-dollar reset, will trigger huge deflation, because thier will be so few of them.  Having assets you OWN will help ease the transition in maintaining purchasing power.  Owning Gold will be best however.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:34 | 426650 jbc77
jbc77's picture

Second worst monthly decline in history and the S&P is down twon handles, looks like the insanity continues.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:39 | 426669 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

That 200 dma is being held with all the might they have, just like yesterday. When she finally goes, it could be fast and really, really ugly.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:43 | 426678 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

It's going to fall, and you are right, its going to be ugly when it does.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:45 | 426683 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Nic had it about right in the morning update. Add to your shorts under 1103. Lighten is up thru 1118.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:21 | 426884 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

End of day stick save, my nuts tell me so.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:38 | 426664 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

Make no mistake, if there were any signs of life in the Florida real estate market, the oil spill will send it into the abyss. 

 

this from June 11 (I think the estimate is way low)

Oil Spill May Cost $4.3 Billion in Property Values

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-11/bp-spill-may-cost-homeowners-4-...

 

 

(and WTF has bloomberg done to their website)

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 15:10 | 427398 digitalhermit
digitalhermit's picture

"(and WTF has bloomberg done to their website)"

Addicted to the old black background? Try: http://noir.bloomberg.com/

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:41 | 426673 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

The consensus I saw yesterday was 7.5% so the numbers are worse than they are willing to admit, since they changed consensus to 6%.   This market is going DOWN!!!

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:43 | 426681 yabs
yabs's picture

even if the stock market does go down they can blaim it on BP and those pesky europeans and their austerity programme

nothing to do with flawed keynesian nonsense

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:48 | 426693 digalert
digalert's picture

It's a tough gubmint job supporting bubble home prices while promoting entitlement homes for all.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:52 | 426700 Young
Young's picture

Just wait until Ben announces yet another fucking stimulus package tomorrow together with holding the rates steady, yearly high next. Keep printing you bald fuck, we'll get you sooner or later...

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:10 | 426856 Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

Do you really think, Bernanke, an academic from Princeton, is making the "business" decisions.

The big boys who really run the show put guys like Ben in those positions to make speeches that rationalize the business decisions viz. "Savings glut in China."

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 14:09 | 427193 The Rock
The Rock's picture

Printing is so blasé.  It's all about the keystrokes my friend.  Bennie loves to stroke the keys while BP is stroking and spewing onto the Keys.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:52 | 426704 boeing747
boeing747's picture

Fred and Fann were removed from stock listing so they don't need to release details of loss as required if publicly traded?

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:31 | 426904 Agent P
Agent P's picture

The delisting is from the NYSE due to share price rules...it does not mean they're going private.  They still have to file financials with the SEC...but to be fair they've had some issues with the timeliness of their filings in the past. ;)

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:08 | 426728 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Last two nonsense interview segments on CNBS:

1) "Which tech stocks to own in an economic recovery"

2) "Can housing rebound without government help?"

Seriously, what a fucking joke that network is. They only exist as a propoganda tool for the WH and the Fed. MOPE and Spin. Disgusting.

 

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:11 | 426738 yabs
yabs's picture

yep its a sick f*cking word we live in

we really do live in a matrix

zerohedge has offered a chance to get outside with tyler/nero

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:31 | 427078 AVP
AVP's picture

Certified

Nuts

Broadcasting

Shit

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:10 | 426733 Young
Young's picture

Recent intelligence suggests Chuck Norris is after Ben since his economical policies got him booted from Hollywood:

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_azimCSzqNnc/SvySspXf0bI/AAAAAAAADlI/yo5eUbiJ0NY/s320/chuck_norris.jpg

 

 

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:11 | 426737 SofaPapa
SofaPapa's picture

No doubt.  Downward momentum is building.  If they are unable to generate upward motion at this point (they are SO desperately trying), this market is in for a shock to the downside.  God I hate that Chinese curse about "exciting times".

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:20 | 426753 Young
Young's picture

Problem for us is that we always wind up in the bear trap since 99 % of the hopium smoking crowd is long (psychobots included)... Tomorrow we'll open higher, then the FOMC, then down (if no stimulus is presented)...

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:25 | 426767 Gimp
Gimp's picture

With all this "good news" why is the market flat and not doing a nose dive?

Can anyone say RIGGED ponzi scheme? 

Is it  a matter of national security that the market is not allowed to behave like a real market?

Don't the brain trust understand that the longer they extend and pretend the longer it will take us to get out of this mess?

Whose in charge, anyone?

Where is Alfred E. Neuman when you need him?

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:34 | 426778 Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

Those in charge want to keep their jobs and don't want it to fall apart before the next election.

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 02:39 | 428571 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

By my count the little Dutch boy has run out of fingers and toes -- only two other appendages left...

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:35 | 426783 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Politics and reality rarely mix.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:36 | 426787 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Holy obvious Fed intervention at 11:34 Batman!

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:38 | 426789 huckman
huckman's picture

Want to create upward momentum overnight?  Just make residential loans assumable.  Also, raise the conventional loan limits to $1,500,000 nationwide.  A prospective congressman could get elected on that platform alone. 

 

Commercial real estate loans (ten year paper) are assumable but then I'm sure ZH readers already new this. 

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:39 | 426790 yabs
yabs's picture

market is green

WTF

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:42 | 426796 juwes
juwes's picture

decouple again.  3 to 4 point scalp every time.  Computers are great.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:42 | 426797 Sagacious Sam
Sagacious Sam's picture

More evidence of the risk of a housing double dip without more govt intervention: In 2010 Q1, 96% of originations were backed by one of the GSE's. i.e. there is still no viable mortgage securitization market outside of the government. Even with no current production, private label paper (not govt guaranteed) still has trouble finding a home. Over the last week, per our database of MBS transactions, only 50-75% of mortgages put out for bid, found a buyer. www.empirasign.com/db/lm

So where does that leave us? Home prices, except bullet-proof Manhattan (it seems) have further down to go. Fannie now will only guarantee Interest Only loans with 70 LTV, or lower. Still tight consumer credit, and expiring incentives, sticky high unemployment (for the time being), all point to a likely double dip in housing.

As an aside: The GSE's should take advantage of tight spreads to lighten up their balance sheets. This way at least they can take some gains off spread tightening to help offset their prodigious losses from defaults.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:42 | 426798 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Apple announced selling 3 million iPads in 80 days and the market rallied right there on that news. I told you guys, the market is AAPL. Wherever it goes, that's where SPX is going. And with every analyst on the planet calling for AAPL 5,000, where do you think that will put the SPX?

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:57 | 426836 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Which is why its called the "stock" market not the "stocks" market.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:19 | 426881 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

AAPL: FAO Schwartz of electronic gizmos.  I'm so annoyed with the iTouch's glitchiness on my PC that I am headed for a Zune next.  Music is the same and costs half as much. Why pay the Steve Jobs premium for each song purchased? This stuff will all catch up with AAPL one of these days. Think of what their next big i-Thing might be. An iPet; nah.  How about an iToilet. Nope. well. . . . I can't think of one either. The iPad is the last iToy.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:25 | 426892 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Ten years from now people are going to look back in disbelief that a gadget maker held the second largest market cap in the country. I'm that way now but once the luster falls off and people move on to the next thing, it'll be similar to people talking about any other phenomenal boom and bust.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 14:50 | 426999 subqtaneous
subqtaneous's picture

 

 

Ten years from now will probably see a world none of us can comprehend today, and moving on to the next thing will have an entirely different meaning than anticipating the next disposable fad.

 

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 18:01 | 427852 Thorny Xi
Thorny Xi's picture

Based on its demo strength with women 14-24, they could increased the strength of the "silent" ringer motor and call it the iVibe ...

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:45 | 426801 juwes
juwes's picture

vix falls on flat and up days, crawls up on down days.  No one is worried right now about a crash.  Here comes the crash.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:36 | 426920 juwes
juwes's picture

Re-couple complete.  Collected 4.25 ES points from 1112 to 1107.75.  Thanks al-gore-rythms!

 

I love what you do for me, COMPUTERS!  (from old toyota theme song)

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:40 | 426930 juwes
juwes's picture

30 day chart still de-coupled, and will be until next 40 handle slap-fest.

 

1075 by tomorrow would be nice.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:50 | 426952 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

SPX seems to have an enormous amount of strength at the 200dma. It's almost seems impenetrable. That creates two scenarios - the strength again gives bulls more confidence or a break leads to major downside. 

Seeing how it's the end of the quarter, I can't see the downside scenario playing out right now.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:49 | 426950 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Come to pappa...

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:15 | 427019 juwes
juwes's picture

If the past de-(and re-)couples on the 30 and 60 day charts mean anything, then this current gap should be closed in a week.  So I know there are theories galore about price support and dma's bla bla bla.

 

But SKYNET should close the spread in 7 or fewer days. (1070)

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:28 | 427066 DavidC
DavidC's picture

HarryW,

Careful, you're beginning to sound 'ZeroHedge-ised'!

I agree with your comment regarding June being quarter end.

DavidC

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 14:28 | 427257 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

What interruption in flood insurance?  We've never had flood insurance, but last month I got an urge to sign up for it, just in case.  It took ten minutes to go through the questions and pay for it and our policy went in to effect on 6/2.

The paperwork we received clearly stated that the waiting period did not apply to home sales requiring flood insurance.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 18:15 | 427896 MoneyMcbags
MoneyMcbags's picture

Money McBags loves that the national association of realtors was claiming there was a 180k "procedural" back-up that kept the existing home sales numbers down.  Ummm.

1.  Even if you add those back, home sales would have been 500bps+ below estimates

2.  Why were there no procedural hold ups 5 years ago when home sales were 40% more per month?

Money McBags ponders those issues today

http://whengeniusprevailed.blogspot.com/2010/06/62210-midafternoon-repor...

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!