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Housing Starts Miss Estimates, Barely Beat Yet Another Downwardly Engineered Prior Number
Even as the PPI data came out as expected, both on a MoM (0.2% vs exp 0.2%), and YoY basis (4.2% vs exp 4.2%), from a previous reading of -0.5%, and thus serving as no market moving indicator in either direction, housing starts of 546k came in well below expectations of 560k. And in keeping with tradition, the US government once again revised the prior period data, to make today's print seem like an improvement: the previous reading of 549k was revised to 537k. As the Census Bureau reported, "Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000. This is 1.7 percent (±9.7%)* above the revised June estimate of 537,000, but is 7.0 percent (±7.5%)* below the July 2009 rate of 587,000." Completing the trifecta of economic data, Housing Permits also missed expectations of 580k, coming in at 565k. Far less relevantly, we also find that "privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000. This is 32.8 percent (±6.8%) below the revised June estimate of 874,000 and is 25.4 percent (±7.3%) below the July 2009 rate of 787,000." In other words, houses really are not being built.
Of course, none of this matters - the US economy is now defined exclusively by iPods and fake feces (aka fertilizer), which somehow are synonymous, with the futures up half a percent on the Potash offer, soon to be a full % point, economic data be damned.
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Since I am building my own house maybe it won't figure in the data. One more cardboard refrigerator box for the living room and I'm done. What's a permit?
helpful tips: get to the ashtrays just before lunch at mall entrances and you get the biggest freshest butts.
when having trouble getting a ride at night try lighting a fire in the middle of the road, tires work best .
later i'll give my recipe for tomato bisque.
A permit is where you pay the government for the priviledge of making improvements on land that you own so that they'll know to bill you more in property taxes in upcoming years.
You can save a few bucks by downloading the the iPermit app.
And if we're lucky, they won't build any houses for the next 2 yrs so we can shake off all the shadow inventory currently sitting on bank balance sheets and boot the people once and for all who have been living in their homes for 2 years mortgage free and move someone in who is actually willing to pay the note.
Hey! Whatya know! A pop in the market on this fake good news...
Another bad month. The financial rengineers have to be hard at work to spin this as an increase!
546 July vs 549 June, initial to initial. That is a DROP to me. When you look at record low mortgage rates these are astoundingly bad numbers.
June revised to 537k. July will be revised lower as well.
Up is down, down is up. War is peace. Hate is love.
Socialism is Capitalism.
Tyler,
I would have to disagree with you that the PPI did not provide a market direction. Since it met expectations, then the market should be up by EOD by about 15 to 20 pts.
how can we trust any numbers now..may be the real number is 500K...
Liftoff... pretty soon IPCU will miss badly and we will hit 1100 fast!
deleted til I can gather my thoughts.
Is anyone tracking the number of revisions, this is getting outta hand!
Is anyone tracking the number of negative revisions compared to the number of total revisions, this is getting outta hand!
fixed
Does this mean the Hindenberg Omen is not coming to a theater near you?
I wouldn't bet on suspension of disbelief for long.
Hey Tyler, How about a chart of all initial numbers for housing over the last three years vs final revised numbers?
Then their engineering of the initial results would be crystal clear.
Were those POT futures pricing in the 'talk to the hand' that BHP has received?
Shaun Donovan, Housing Secretary, speaking on Bloomberg about the "Housing Summit" or whatever they are calling it is going to "make sure" there is never a crisis again. Of course any decisions they make have nothing to do with politics.
Geithner up to bat next!
Just need to "tweak" those dastardly numbers to make them look just right. Herr Goebbels would have been proud.
All of these massaged numbers are simply pulled out of thin air.
If the GovCo truly wanted to know what the numbers were, they would simply require all municipal governments to report housing permit applications each month. Same for unemployment. The numbers don't lie. Why do they do a "household survey" in the first place? Because it allows them to report whatever headline number they wish to, that's why. Why not simply require the states to report hard numbers each month?
The real numbers, if published regularly, would have already started a revolution, that's why.
Anything put out by government "agencies" is pure imagination, nothing more.
Thin air?
I think not my friend.
Try somewhere below the belt and between the back pockets.
The Terrifying Protest of China's Poor- The Kindergarten Massacres
I get the desire to acquire POT by BHP evidently people are being to become aware of a true crisis in food shortages as economies globally see A reversion to basic needs. Keep in mind BHP tried to buy RTP a few years back so they have been wanting to make a purchaase. With China about to crash AG seems like potential windfall as nations become desperate for grain.
That being said I think they are overbidding since all equities are overpriced and does not warrant a market rally but then again they will any excuse to rally as we already have experienced. Low volume and futures tricks as always until a seller appears .
Dudes. the last few minutes (1/2) hour were up yesterday if you haven't figurede out it appears this golden period is the big factor in futures. pluse the dollr was down yesterday giving a signal to close out your shorts.
same thing happened with the recent market action. dollar gained. therefore giving a clue to the markets recent fall.
I honestly don't understand why people make this so difficult.
Also not difficult: Grammar/Spell Check
Chart: ES
The bounce that many are expecting here at current price levels appears to be constrained by the upper boundary of a downward channel as well as overhead resistance. Good luck, folks.
http://www.screencast.com/t/N2UzNmNmMzQ
There are no houses being built, theres a glut of already standing empty houses, only a retard would start building houses today as if it were 2006! They can show whatever numbers they want, but bottom line is its getting worse fast.
building them like the boom time in northeast arkansas... and selling them quickly... anything in the $100k-$175k range is ripe pickens.
Standard futures pump on gussied-up BS numbers again? Real Shorts should attack this phony prop job like Normandy!
The manipulation continues...Alan Watt in the Fall of the Republic described the use of TV quite well from 1:26:20 to 1:32:00: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VebOTc-7shU
"...houses really are not being built."
Well, maybe not outta sticks, bricks and morter...but...there is a boon in the ones made outta PLAYING CARDS.
Why is it almost always that numbers are revised downwards? Whatever happened to upward revisions? I really think that as someone said earlier that a chart displaying the number of downward revisions to upward revisions in economic data would be splendid.
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