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Houston, We Have No Problem... Or Volume
By Nic Lenoir of ICAP
We had called for 1,040 to hold in S&P futures and with the spike in volume into Tuesday's close for month end and in an uptick had rightfully assessed it was the start of the pull-back we expected technically towards 1,085/1,100. Here we are already... This market wastes no time. Two things are odd: After a 30 point move yesterday we did not even get a 5 tick retracement today, ahead of a job report tomorrow which cannot be that great if one is to believe ADP. Also today's price action is to put in light of how well supported it was: there are still a few minutes left but so far lower volume than Monday which was the slowest day of the year. Basically no participation in today's follow up.
While we warned last Wednesday of a possible correction in 10s as we reached resistance and had an interesting intraday reversal, it appears we are on an important support here. We need to see acceleration lower otherwise in the very near term the risk is for another squeeze higher especially if the number is weak tomorrow.
Overnight it would make sense to see markets partly retrace today's price action going into the number. Even if we are to test the upper-end of the 1,085/1,100 range, or challenge the 200-dma at 1,112, we should in theory at least pull back down to 1,072/1,075 before that.
Big picture there remains nothing to be ubpbeat about: there is no decoupling and Chinese numbers are bogus, the only thing holding US equity markets is the certainty that the government will not let them fall, we are still running deficits and accumulating debt we someday will have to default on. Cheers!
Good luck trading,
Nic
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vol may be punk but the chart is bullish. downtrend (possible triangle) resistance is 1108ish; if that breaks 1130 is possible.
now they are reporting obama considering more stimulus
someone knew yesterday
Essentially, shorts have been taken out short term and longs who sold last week have to dip back in. No sellers equals quiet, torture-like up day ahead of long weekend. No surprise ahead of tomorrows job data.
Everyone is going to be too busy stuck in traffic to give a rip about a long weekend Friday news dump. Besides, any bad news will be handled by stop losses in place to make sure Monday's hangover doesn't spill into Tuesday.
LMAO...pigs flying is also possible when you live in fairy land.
What is even more possible is these aholes are trying to front run the hope of everyone coming back from holiday assuming they haven't been watching the no volume melt up...would be hilarious if all the Europeans came back and started selling this shit out of this market.
The higher she goes the more expensive she gets and there are clearly less dollars around to go chasing unicorns...
"Big picture there remains nothing to be ubpbeat about: there is no decoupling and Chinese numbers are bogus, the only thing holding US equity markets is the certainty that the government will not let them fall, we are still running deficits and accumulating debt we someday will have to default on."
Pretty much says it all.
Btw, anyone see the crazy buy volume in Jim Sinclair's TRE today? Big up move.
Too busy watching SPG and IYR continue their full-blast launch into outer-space. The REITS are now about 4% off of their all time highs...you know...just for fucking giggles and all.
Just for you, Boiler...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aw1MNBgLw0w
Speakin of Houston, '84 lots of volume
Isn't it amazing? Retail stocks like jwn are 30% off their highs. Retail clearly slowing down. No job creation for the office REIT's. Defaults in real world of physical real estate. But the paper buildings just keep going up. I could understand if there was a chase for yield, but the div yield on SPG is in the 2% range.
very nice. its been a nice uptrend for awhile. did not see any news tho
Why would you need any news or justification for a ramp up? Geez...rookie mistake.
Tomorrow - "better than expected" - what did you expect?
Its cuz your govament luvs ya, baby!!!!!
Houston, we have a problem called "short covering".
Timmah got out the penis pump, must perpetuate Ponzi at all costs now. Frankly if you have any money at all anywhere near these insane Batman villains, I say youre nuts.
what's a penis pump, i know what a breast pump for woman? is a penis pump, just a mouth.
Think of it as "Unatural male enhancement."
You don't have to cover if you ain't on margin...
Been short since May 27...now down 4%...hell, I pay more for catastrophy insurance on my house...why not have some on the market as well...
Hey, have to keep the sheeple happy before the holiday weekend.
HEHEHE yea its always something, either its earnings season, a variety of 'key economic reports', unemployment, options expiration (my favorite) manufacturing, overseas BS data, ALWAYS something they must pump for. But 1 thing is certain, its NEVER time for reality to step in!
not if they check out whats happening in job market (for real) -
www.dailyjobcuts.com
But the sheeple aren't happy. That's why they keep pulling money out.
So who are the insiders going to sell to if the sheeple don't buy? How will they exit their long positions?
Exactly right, they can play pump the markets to infinity, but they have no one to sell to. A bit of a PROBLEM, eh?
All just bread and circus, until the default soon. Whatever. Enjoy.
"the government will not let them fall"
Yep, the boat is loaded long and unhedged. Seems clear, though very "sledge hammer" like - no finesse. Appreciate it as always, Nic.
The problem is, at some point, it WILL fail! It HAS to fail!
Whether its tomorrow, next month, or January, it is coming! Look at the bond markets, theyre already behaving as if the 08 collapse started a few weeks ago! Look at the Phoenix Capitol article on top of Zerohedge.
And this assumption that Q/E2 = massive market upside simply is not true!
Far more likely, massive stimulus simply crushed the dollar, sends any foreign investor scurrying from the 'hammer only' Bernanke, and stocks totaly collapse!
Read their article, they lay it out pretty plainly!
I don't disagree. (Double negative - check). My only advice is to stay lightfooted. I don't make the rules, I just try and ride. The point is clear. There is nothing more dangerous than men who have everything to lose - survival is the strongest instinct God gave you. I can't drive the boat and I don't decide right or wrong. I just ride and pick up crumbs. Adjust your game accordingly. Disclosure +8.8% in two days. Show me a hedge fund doing that!
I've got the "Short-on" torpedoes loaded, just waiting for the right moment to lock on and fire away.
Melt-up territory until then. Totally agree.
Notice how the 'news' ahead of time tells us its going to be a bad number backed, of course by all the experts agreements on the 'consensus numbers'. Days before they are released, they desensitize the listening market. When the actual number are released it is just a big sigh of relief that the numbers aren't as bad as what was expected. The revisions down latter have no effect because you maintain the belief that it was better than expected and perhaps things will eventually turnaround.
Hope is a dangerous thing, it can drive a person insane. Hope is a bad thing. It means you cannot accept the things as they are, clouding your judgements. it means that you entertain illusions. Illusions are not real, they are conjured things created to keep your gaze in the wrong area.
Its the debt stupid and the interest is sucking you dry and preventing opportunity with its cost
Why are we even messing with this stuff? Target for the dollar is zero.Target for the Dow is infinity. Dollar buying power with the Dow at infinity-zero. What am I missing?....
Absolutely nothing. Now what do you need to do to prepare?
Lots of kool-aid in the pitcher, but not too many drinkers. As was shown in a recent post, maybe the dumb-money isn't so dumb after all. The quants, the HFT's and the institutions will have to take turns screwing each other. Joe six-pack has decided to sit this one out.
Are actively managed hedge funds the new dumb money? Anyone willing to employ leverage into this mess is dumb.
Personally, and I'm assuming this question is to anyone, I employ leverage when I'm sure. This sureness has nothing to do with any media outlet. It's the "feel" of the place coupled with TA. Usually, it is flying in the face of conventional thought. "If you going to go, go BIG!" 8-10 times a year. To your first question, the dumb money may well be hedge funds. Too much group think.
SS
Underperforming hedge funds looking to employ leverage to save their year is like hungry seals venturing off seal island (yes I watched shark week) only to have Great Whites waiting for them.
I should have been more clear - employing leverage in this present market. What's today's contrarian play, other than short Treasuries?
Please advise a totally bewildered one--how in heaven is shorting Treasuries at all contrarian? They can't have much farther to go to the upside under any condition, unless we truly are Japan, which is highly unlikely, for any number of reasons...
It's contrarian because if you were short treasuries until a few days ago you're now flipping burgers. Pull up a chart and tell me shorting T's is not the ballsiest contrarian bet today.
I'm long GGP, C, HIG, SHLD, FAS, TNA, DBA, DGP, (UNG - decent winner in the oil mishap arena). Do your own DD, as you should.
True contrarians - bond insurers--->ABK, MBIA, but you better be quick and paying attention and able to go long and short. For fun of course.
The most important point Nic makes is -"the only thing holding US equity markets is the certainty that the government will not let them fall."
ZH readers are so used to this I think it's often overlooked. The outright manipulation is so blantant, so obvious, you would think the central bankers would almost be embarrassed. We have zero volume, retail mutual fund out flow annihilaton, ponzi debt schemes, bankrupt municipalities, bond bubbles, PM price containment, soverign shit storms, FX funny money games, pension under funding fuck failures, Chinese bridges to no where......and the S&P is above 1000 and the Dow 10000. Are you fucking kidding me? What is not a disaster right now, thats the tougher question. I even left out GSE scammers, over priced housing backlog foreclosed ankle grabbers. Is anything okay right now? No.
What land mine gets stepped on first? Do they all go off? There will be a limit to fed fake it till' we make it. The point of no return is crossed. Lets just blow up already for God sakes and get it over with.
Don't even get started on the data this week. Today the media comes out and says jobless claims at 473 or what not....on expectations of 475. Heck of a beat. This is insanity. We're not even living in a sane world anymore. Everything is backwards. Good is bad, bad is good. All bad data, is now considered......well considered to be not as bad as it could be so thats darn good. The SEC loves porn too. WHAT FUCKING PLANET AM I ON AND SOMEONE GET ME HOME QUICK. Cause' this shit is starting to look like the fed is losing control......
I like to compare it to the motion of a top. You know, you spin it and at first it is very stable. Overtime it starts to oscillate. It eventually stops, but not before it becomes completely unpredictable and violent. Seems to fit. I still say, " What do you need to do to prepare for the stop"?
I think Bill Gross calls this "the new normal". Fed lost control about 95 years ago. Takes a while for things to catch up...
True that. If you truly believe that the economy is a living wreck, and that the stock market will have to reflect it eventually, its good insurance.
This was in reply to Robslob. I don't know how it ended up here.
Chart: ES
Be short, be happy. Dark Cloud Cover now forming on S&P futures; let's see what tomorrow brings.
http://www.screencast.com/t/MmYzYTJhNDQt
Look again.
Looks like a pump and dump to me... I've seen this before and know all too well how it ends. The retail Joe's get annihilated thinking they're missing a major move to the upside while listening to the Talking Tools' advice on CNBS. They buy in too late to only get crushed...
If you're long, be nimble. There's an obvious bearish divergence occurring. The question is, when will this head fake give way. We're in an ambush short zone on the ES (1082.25 - 1093). Market could blow right throw it with a positive jobs report tomorrow but I'm skeptical of this up move.
Watch the Treasuries, they look like they're ready to spike to the upside.
Pretty negative take John. We're all about happy fluffy stuff here. You know.. Happy happy Joy Joy... happy happy joy... Timmy G.
Lol! I hear you Timmah!
Looks like I stand corrected and the pump continues... The huge spike this morning on the ES was met with even lower volume than Wednesday's. Gotta love it... Tsy's sold off as well.
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