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How The CBOT, Comex And CFTC Coordinated To Break The Last Silver Price Surge
Just like QE is nothing new in the monetary arena, and has seen some incarnation at least since the early 80's primarily in Japan, so parabolic commodity price surges have occurred periodically, most notably in 1980, when Bunker Hunt brought the price of silver to over $50. However, unlike any time before, never in the history of the world have we seen a coordinated worldwide monetary stimulus via relentless credit money "printing" courtesy of global central banks. In that regard, this time really is different, as there is no other remaining backstop to the world financial system: the global banking cartel has used up all its bullets and now can only double down in the most nightmarish Martingale system ever conceived, where each iteration means further fiat absolute value destruction (on a relative basis it simply means a race to the currency bottom, whereby definition only one can be in the lead at any given moment: usually the one with the biggest printing press, and greatest deflationary threat). And while many still believe that QE2 will be the last of domestic US monetary easing episodes, as Bill Gross noted earlier, it is very possible that the US may be headed into a triple-dip recession, for which the only prescription will be another QE round (with political gridlock in DC at unseen levels no fiscal stimulus is even remotely possible). If this happens, precious metals will once again surge. The only question is what will the exchanges do after the next gold and silver spike? Indeed, as we suggest, margin hikes are just the beginning. For a complete playbook of how the CME may proceed after the margin hike approach fails, we once again go back to the curious case of Bunker Hunt. Below, from the Playbook biopic of the Texas billionaire we posted yesterday, we present the walk through of how the CBOT, Comex and CFTC tried to break silver's back. Back in 1980 they succeeded. Have they, and will they succeed this time?
...The CFTC and the officials of the two exchanges decided to have a little talk with the Hunts. Explaining that they feared a squeeze, the exchange officials asked them if they would consider selling some of their silver. The brothers’ answer was no. What was more, they said, they intended to keep buying silver and to keep taking delivery on it. They thought silver was still a good buy, even at the new high prices. Besides, as Bunker put it with typical understatement. “If you sell, you get into a tax problem.”
On top of all that, Bunker really did believe in silver as a long-term investment, the underpinnings of a new economy. He did not say that in so many words to the CFTC men and the exchange officials, but he did give them a glimpse of his basic apocalyptic vision when he revealed a previously undisclosed feature of his silver play: the fact that he was moving his metal to Europe. This time, he did not fly the bullion overseas in chartered jets with cowboy guards. As he told the CFTC, Bunker simply traded 9,000,000 ounces’ worth of metal he held in Chicago and New York exchange warehouses for an equal amount of bullion held by other traders in London and Zurich. The reason? As he explained to the CFTC and the exchange officials, he feared that the U. S. Government might expropriate silver from Americans just as it had expropriated gold back in the Thirties.
But Bunker’s assurances that he was willing to cooperate as much as possible apparently mollified the CFTC officials; the C.B.O.T., however, concluded that it was time to act. In a move aimed directly at the Hunts and the other big buyers, the Board of Trade raised the margin requirement and declared that silver traders would be limited to 3,000,000 ounces of futures contracts. Traders with more than that would have to divest themselves of their excess futures holdings by mid-February 1980.
With that, the battle lines were drawn. Bunker let it be publicly known that he thought the C.B.O.T. was changing the rules in the middle of the game, and vowed to fight the limits all the way. Privately, he regarded the C.B.O.T.’s action as another conspiracy against him by the Eastern establishment. And for once, he had a good prima-facie case.
The boards of both the Chicago and the New York exchanges were composed not only of “outside” directors but also of representatives of the major, usually Eastern-based brokerage houses. Later testimony would reveal that nine of the 23 Comex board members held short contracts on 38,000,000 ounces of silver. With their 1.88 billion dollar collective interest in having the price go down, it is easy to see why Bunker did not view them as objective regulators. At the same time, though, the C.B.O.T. restrictions made Bunker even more bullish on silver, because, as he put it, “they show a silver shortage exists.”
Bunker appeared to be right. Through November and December, the price of silver rose faster than ever. By the last day of 1979, the price reached an astronomical $34.45 an ounce. Meanwhile, the Hunts’ silver holdings kept increasing. By the end of December, the Hunts and their Arab partners held 90,300,000 ounces of bullion that the CFTC knew about and another 40,000,000 ounces the Hunts had stashed in Europe. The Hunt group also held about 90,000,000 ounces worth of silver futures, most of them due for delivery in March on the Comex in New York.
By this time, the CFTC became concerned that the silver positions held by the Hunts and the Conti group were “too large relative to the size of the U. S. and world silver markets.” Subscribing to the philosophy that the futures market was not a substitute for the cash market, the commission determined that the time had come to stop Bunker’s perverse buying spree. A meeting to decide what to do was set for January 8, 1980.
Then the Comex stepped in. On January seventh, the exchange announced new position limits restricting traders to no more than 10,000,000 ounces’ worth of futures contracts. The effective date of the limits was set for February 18. The day after the Comex announcement, the CFTC announced that it was backing the exchanges new limits.
Bunker was incensed. “I am not a speculator. I am not a market squeezer,” he protested. “I am just an investor and holder in silver.” Taking the offensive, he accused the exchanges and the Government of destroying the U. S. silver market by changing the rules in the middle of the game. “The market will move to Europe,” he predicted ominously. “The silver market in this country is a thing of the past.”
Strangely enough, the price of silver fell only one day in the wake of the Comex announcement, then started climbing even higher. Part of the reason for the continued price spiral, according to an after-the-fact analysis by the CFTC, was that Bunker kept buying silver. On January 14 and 16, the Hunts made agreements to take future delivery on 32,500,000 ounces of silver (mostly in London) at various dates that spring. The largest of those contracts were with Englehard Minerals. On January 17, silver hit a record high of $50 an ounce.
Bunker could hardly be incensed about that. On that one day, the worth of the Hunts’ silver bullion holdings was nearly four and a half billion dollars. Since most of that silver had been acquired at less than ten dollars an ounce, they had a profit of over three and a half billion dollars. Bunker and Herbert had made nearly as much money in the past six months as their late father had made in his entire lifetime, at least on paper. Of course, if Bunker actually sold all that bullion, he would face enormous tax consequences. The trick now was to figure a way to utilize those huge gains without having them decimated by the taxman.
As Bunker pondered that, the exchanges decided to impose their most stringent restriction yet. On January 21, the Comex announced that trading would be limited to liquidation orders only. There would be no more futures buying. The game was closing down.
The next day, the price of silver plunged to $34, a drop of ten dollars in a single day. It stabilized shortly after that, and remained in the mid to high 30s for the rest of the month. But in February, the price began to slide downward again. By that time, silver was literally coming out of the woodwork. In response to the new high prices, old ladies had been selling their tea sets. Families had been hocking their silverware. Coin collectors had been divesting themselves of their collections. In January and February alone, an estimated 16,000,000 ounces of silver coins and an additional 6,000,000 ounces of scrap silver had come onto the market. With the price of silver now dropping, some of those small sellers and small investors began complaining to the CFTC about the exchange restrictions...
Ironically, while the paper holders of silver may be complaining to the CFTC now, the inverse is true about physical supply-demand dynamics. Indeed, instead of a scramble to convert physical silver to paper, we continue to see the inverse as a material amount of silver wholesale retailers continue to be out of actual silver.
And, as was posted yesterday, those who wish to read the full story of Bunker Hunt and the still historic surge in silver, may do so here.
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hey frank, you're an oversexed moron
Someone mentioned Jim Sinclair earlier on. Judging by his comments and how he says not to fret when there are pullbacks in the spot price, the price targets he's talking about are paper gold prices, so are we right to think he believes the COMEX won't be able to control the gold price going parabolic?
The Comex will loose it's importance when buyers find out that they dont get delivery. There are several other exchanges other than Comex around the world. The London LME/LBMA is another which is more often used for obtaining deliveries.
Comex is controlled by the CFTC which has refused to implement position limits . While on one side they ask buyers to put up cash margins, they do not ask sellers to put up the gold/silver as margins. This is an absolutely clear case of defending shorts and being hand in glove. They do not like anyone to ask for the physical deliveries and more so if you do not store it in their vaults.
Normally when a price rise is suspect, the the right thing would be to put the entire commodity on spot basis. But this would show up the short positions and their game would be up. The banksters have no problem for cash as the Fed is their friend ( actually they own the Fed).
What is most important, however, is that we will shortly have an Asian exchange which will overtake all these since Asians are the biggest buyers. Singapore can be a good bet for this as it is known to be a fair player.
Adequate pricing mechanism ?
When the COMEX registered inventories now at 33MN oz hits ZERO oz then everyone with a functioning brain cell will realise that the market has not been operating an adequate pricing mechanism.
The people who really know the matter will point to Nixon's 1971 ending of the gold standard and to the Reagan's 1980c introduction of the Plunge Protection Team.
This latest hit job began May 1st and what is the likelihood that the fraudsters have expended a huge amount of ammunition and that it may take them a very long time to reload.
Meanwhile how much physical silver has this action dislodged back into the COMEX registered inventories ?
Obviously I bought some more physical silver on Thursday and I am sure I was not alone - ha ha ha
Not to forget the assassinations of Abraham Lincoln and John Fitzgerald Kennedy, the best presidents the United States ever had.
Kennedy was removed, because:
1. He didn't want to escalate the Vietnam war, contrary to the insatiably greedy military-industrial complex that Dwight D. Eisenhower had warned about
2. He wanted to abolish the Federal Reserve and reinstate the U.S. Congress controlled U.S. Treasury as issuer of the U.S. dollar
Lincoln was removed, because he wanted to avoid the introduction of an independent (read: criminal) central bank and of course because he had abolished slavery, at least officially.
President James A. Garfield was inaugurated in 1881, he said
"Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce".
On July 2, 1881 Garfield was shot, he dies on September 19.
this year alone 100 Billionaires emerge in China.
You can never fuck with the power of Chinese and Indians.
The more physical gold and silver you sell in the open market ends up in the hands of Chinese and Indians. 3
months ago, i saw newspaper in China stating a girl took all her savings and earnings from property and bought physical silver. How much silver ? exactly 1ton or 7million RMB @ $31per ounce.
Chinese are obsessed with making money and their collective mindset is very powerful. If you knew that property can make u a lot of money, here is another new frenzy trend in China.
They have started to speculate on graveyard, graveyard flipping to be exact. Whatever thing which can make money or gain in investment, CHINESE WILL DO IT.
Come on, sell more physical silver out !!!
Major commodity producers outside of the PM markets currently maintain outsized commodity trading departments in relation to their hedging needs for production because they need to maintain the size and strength in the paper markets to shake the price free from the paper commodity banks when their shenanigans get out of hand, or trade their way to a fiat profit they are unable to free the fiat commodity price.
In a fiat world, where there is a paper product to meet every conceivable financial desire, the fact that large commodity producers (agribusiness, mining, petroleum) would engage in off-exchange forward physical commodity swaps, which are inherently less cost efficient than their fiat counterparts, should be a warning to smaller market participants as to how rigged and expensive the paper commodity game actually is even at the top.
Large market participants have an inherent advantage over smaller players in any financial market exchange. When the Comex is finally banished to the eighth circle of hell, new exchange(s) will emerge to replace it. Hopefully they will achieve more honest price discovery and will better represent the interests of producers and small market participants and less represent the interests of politicians and bankers. A movement away from dollar hegemony will be painful to those who measure their wealth in nominal dollars, but it will strip some of the power politicians and central bankers to destroy the wealth of their nations through policies of monetary debasement.
The actions in the tiny silver market over the last week demonstrate the determination, power and collusion of politicians and bankers in preventing honest price discovery. They lay bare the lies of the BLS propaganda as to inflation and the diminishing purchasing power of the masses through unsupported fiat currency printed at the will of the central bankers. The actions in the miniscule precious metals markets struck at the fiat heart and reverberated through the much larger oil, food, and currency markets.
The immediate CME and bullion bank concern (within the confines of the silver futures market itself) is not directly related to either covering shorts or the paper price, especially since the short positions were opened with monopoly money to begin with.
The primary concern is controlling the flow of the underlying physical silver, and buying time to keep the Crimex scam alive. The longer the Crimex scam remains viable, the more money they make for themselves and the more wealth destruction by central bankers they can hide. By shaking the weak long positions out, they now control more of total open interest, and did so at a lower cost and higher profit than possible in an “fair” market, as there are less "outsiders" capable of removing whatever pot of physical silver remains in their vaults through the exercise of long contracts.
Since they now control more of the total supply of contracts, both long & short, they have the option, which they will exercise at their leisure, of either selling them back to the sheeple at a profit, or closing their shorts, depending on their current view of the greed vs. fear conundrum.
Another way of explaining the ongoing precious metals market manipulation is the analogy that the Crimex is nothing more than a crooked poker parlor. The CME packs some of the seats at each table with shills (the bullion banks) who didn’t actually have to pay for their chips, so there isn’t money in the cage to back all the chips (contracts) on the floor. Marks are drawn into casino and pay up (current margin requirement) and receive casino credit for the balance of chips desired at the cage before taking a seat at the table. The con succeeds (and the Crimex dealer, pit boss and the shills book profits) when the mark loses his chips at the table, not when the excess chips are picked up from the table and returned to the cage (so open interest doesn’t need to decline). As long the number of marks walking back to the cage to cash out the chips is controlled then the con can continue. Sometimes the shills have to collude with house to prevent a run on bank, so a combination of margin hikes (revocation of casino credit) and volatility (big bluffs) is employed, and the clueless mark is often sent scurrying out of the casino with a much lighter wallet.
This is a con worthy of Joe Kennedy and his old business partners before he became head of the SEC and “outlawed” some of the very practices which he formerly excelled in. Nixon abandoned the dollar to gold convertibility in August 1971 by executive order. However, Congress still had to continually devalue the US dollar against gold since the gold price was fixed and Congress’s spending habits weren’t. The dollar was devalued by raising the gold price from $35 to $38 on May 8, 1972 by PL 92-268. The dollar was again devalued by raising the gold price from $38 to $42.22 on October 18, 1973 by PL 93-110. Since the fixed gold price problem was getting to be like the debt ceiling problem is today a decision to float the gold price was made. The Crimex gold contract was launched on December 31, 1974. Coincidentally on December 31, 1974 the prohibition of private ownership and trading of gold in the US was revoked by PL 93-373. Since the original purpose of the Crimex gold contract was to control the devaluation of the dollar- the US Government has been in bed with Crimex and its bullion bank shills since its very inception, just like the local police and politicians on the take who granted the license and continue to allow the crooked poker hall to remain open.
In the past several decades, politicians and bankers have created a worldwide FIAT CATHEDRAL to honor Satan (conveniently denominated in USD and primarily benefiting US politicians spending desires). The bargain was struck in the hope of receiving FINANCIAL STABILTY and INCREASED SPENDING POWER at no cost to politicians or bankers, but rather at the cost of the wealth and souls of the masses commanded and controlled by the very politicians and bankers striking the deal with the devil. The gold market forms the vault of the cathedral’s crossing, and the silver market forms the keystone of the central vault. The equity and debt markets form the transept, the broader commodity futures market forms the choir, and the remaining derivatives market forms the huge nave (primarily consisting of the interest and F/X derivative markets).
The central banks maintain gold reserves to back the bullion banks in their battle against anyone trying to bring down the gold market. The central banks do not maintain silver reserves and questions about depth of bullion bank reserves in the Comex, SLV, and LBMA vaults are leading to serious arch balding. The collapse of the keystone can bring down the crossing vault and the entire cathedral roof, but how else can the masses save their souls from devil who continues to extract his pounds of flesh through inflation masked as diminishing purchasing power.
The only constant is change and change we must if we want seek truth instead lust. God bless you Urban Redneck.
Here's a hilarious animation exhorting folks to get even against the banksters and government:
http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/join-sla-to-get-even-and-...
Looks like gold and silver stabilized in the last 48 hours and are now moving very carefully (or shall we say "fearfully"?) upwards.
Unless more artificial hitjobs follow (which at this point are impossible to predict - the market is at the whim of the enemy), or major news (even if fabricated) happen, i'd say this is the new bottom.
I dont put a lot of faith in elliot wave and fibonicci summations, but it is erie how the market is more fractal than random. Nonetheless Be careful that this might be a B wave.
We have never seen a true test of countercyclical spending against a kondriatev winter. Icant spell russian shit. We are getting to witness history first hand.
A sudden discovery of a new source of cheap unlimited energy could change the equation, but stout elliot wave theorists expect a huge gold and stock bear market bottoming at pre bull trend levels. About 500 in gold, and 500 S and P.
The printing press will obscure this bottom with nominal rises, so all you can do is look at ratios, dow to gold, housing to a happy meal, etc to figure out when we have bottomed.
Who knows. It seems strange how it firmly found bottom around $35 (pretty strong support, it seems). Yesterday I bought some gold and PM miners and next week, if silver doesn't sink below $34, I'll buy some silver as well.
Good luck.
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”.
That old saw screams out at anyone who took the time to read the full PDF in the “Silverfinger” article the other day. In fact, I am almost surprised someone didn’t accuse Tyler of being a “paid troll” for JPM or COMEX, as the article almost perfectly matches the recent silver market action and the commentary surrounding it, and might strike fear, or at least caution, in some weak hands.
Nelson Bunker Hunt advised people to buy “stuff”. “Anyone can print", he said. That was true then and it is true now. Timing, however, is everything. Hunt was early. Now he’s “late”. The trick to life, at least financial life, is timing one’s existence to coincide with dominant means of exchange during the years one remains above ground.
There were good reasons for silver to rise back then, not the least of which was across the board inflation, unlike today’s inflation which is limited to commodities, but which has (in)conveniently left out wages and big ticket assets like US housing. The money supply was rising by all measures back then, while today a good deal of the money printed rests merely on the fringe of the system, like a monetary sword of Damocles, in the form of excess bank reserves, making the graph of MB look particularly startling.
In the most widely used monetary aggregates, 1980 money printing actually looks a lot worse than today. In the two years prior to the 1980 silver peak, M1 was growing at about a .64% monthly rate, vs. .63% monthly rate in the two years prior to today. M2 is much more dramatic, however, growing three times faster in 1980 than it is today, .75% per month in the two years prior to the peak vs. .25% per month average today. Who would have thought? Of course MB today is the (potential) game changer.
Then and now US monetary policy was controlled by the central bank. One difference is that back then the US also had a central banker.
I am making no prediction on the future price of silver here, nor criticizing anyone who thinks silver is the best form of wealth preservation for the years he has left above ground. I’m merely pointing out a few of the similarities between then and now. Nothing is new under the sun.
We had large, semi-secretive buyers then in the form of mega-rich sheikhs like Mohammed Aboud al-Amoudi, Khalid bin Mahfooz, and the Saudi Royals. Today we have large, semi-secretive buyers in the form of mega-rich hedge fund managers like John Paulson, and maybe---or maybe not---George Soros.
We also certainly have people, even on Zerohedge, who might agree with these sentiments I quote from the article,
[In that same summer, just before the price of silver, exploded, an extraordinary invitation went out from Dallas to most of the better known Texas millionaires. The invitation informed recipients, “You, together with your wife or husband if convenient, are cordially invited to be our guest at a very important meeting that could help determine the destiny of civilization.” The invitation went on to promise that participants would “hear and discuss plans and strategies that are not only having a profound moral and spiritual impact upon many nations but are also a critical deterrent to the avalanche of evil that is threatening to engulf the world.”]
And:
[Bunker……his great silver play…..is also a fundamental expression of his world view, one that is usually labeled archconservative. Like his father before him, Bunker Hunt envisions an international Communist conspiracy and the Easternliberal-establishment-Rockefeller-CIA conspiracy. For reasons that are alternately well founded and fantastical, he believes himself and his family to be victims of both. Even more fundamentally, he possesses a vision of the apocalypse, a conviction that the world is heading down the road to doom.]
This part from the 1980 article is eerily similar to today:
[The next day, the price of silver plunged to $34, a drop of ten dollars in a single day. It stabilized shortly after that, and remained in the mid to high 30s for the rest of the month. But in February, the price began to slide downward again. By that time, silver was literally coming out of the woodwork……..Bunker, meanwhile, remained as bullish as ever. “Why would anyone want to sell silver to get dollars?” he asked in amazement. “I guess they got tired of polishing it.”……Prudently or not, Bunker practiced what he preached. In early February, the Hunts took delivery of 26,500,000 ounces of bullion from the Chicago exchange.]
As is this:
[Later testimony would reveal that nine of the 23 Comex board members held short contracts on 38,000,000 ounces of silver.]
Another of the lines from the 1980 article was:
[Many analysts believe that at $12 - $14 an ounce, silver is now drastically under priced]
By the mid 1990’s silver had fallen to $3 per ounce.
The Hunts did a good deal of buying on margin, and also borrowed against their physical holdings to buy more physical and futures. That exacerbated their problems. Today, some of the largest holders may not be buying on margin, but because they are large hedge funds, they are susceptible to swings in other markets (oil, equities, bonds, FX). A rout against them in any of those markets might have the same effect as margin calls against the Hunts, as the HF’s would have to sell other assets to raise cash for likely redemptions or margin calls in markets where they are leveraged. In other words, a crashing stock market might lead to large scale selling of silver, though those fond of silver might find such selling a gift.
The article speculates that what might have finally killed the Hunt’s game was the sharp rise in interest rates engineered by Paul Volcker. That does not, as of this writing, appear to be a part of history that will either repeat or rhyme, but one must stay tuned nonetheless.
Damn nice analysis.
Silver and gold have further to go on the downside, but not by much.
But after that, I'm thinking that you will be seeing a long basing period for awhile.
Because too many guys on this forum were buying throughout the crash, and it is the market's tendency to frustrate these early buyers by grinding them out through a long consolidation.
Other than a decent sized dead cat bounce next week, I don't expect silver to do much of anything the rest of the summer.
There will be other sectors to play in order to make money. Right now, the PM sector is probably "dead money" for a long time.
gotta disagree here.
I don't trade the precious, but I can guarantee you a roller-coaster ride.
I may be even tempted to try the minis.
A long, hot volatile summer?
I hope!
Volatility attracts traders like shit attracts flies.
Here's a chart pack that shows the huge crash in silver priced in foreign currencies:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$SILVER:FXE,$SILVER:FXY,$SILVER:FXC,$SILVER:FXS,$SILVER:FXA,$SILVER:FXM,$SILVER:FXB,$SILVER:FXF|D
S & P 500 is actually breaking out in many foreign currencies:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$spx:FXE,$spx:FXY,$spx:FXC,$spx:FXS,$spx:FXA,$spx:FXM,$spx:FXB,$spx:FXF|D
Nice Robo
CandleGlance: $SPX:FXE,$SPX:FXY,$SPX:FXC,$SPX:FXS,$SPX:FXA,$SPX:FXM,$SPX:FXB,$SPX:FXF
i'm here to learn. i don't care if i get junked for saying something dumb. but sometimes i think i've landed on an aol site because the comments descend into vile criticisms of other commenters. yet i return because there are people who provide good information.
and with that said, i may stop asking questions and commenting. may just read the articles and the comments.
You're doing fine, man. No need to stop commenting for anyone else's sake.
Questions are good. Question everything.
Harvey Organ has his report out..which is fairly intersting. The banks may get even more innovative to shake silver from the tree.
Hold tight, buy silver.
Silver is so good it can stop the apocalypse? I knew I was making the right choice, and it would be great to yell into david rockefellers face "I drink your milkshake!".
So the GMen changed the rules (Margin limits) and forced the leveraged investors out of paper PMs. Price drops as expected. Oligarchs win (this round).
So what is to prevent the GMen from changing the rules on holders of physical PM? For example, they could proclaim a special high sales tax on PM to deter internet sales of physical PM. Or create a property tax on holders of physical PM (like local govts charge individuals on the value of their autos, etc). There are lots of games they could play. And of course, they own the tanks and fighter jets to enforce their oppression. These would of course be the desperate acts of a cornered beast. But aren't we witnessing desperate acts of a cornered govt right already (ie QEx to Infinity, destroying the currency, etc)?
Disclosure: I have no PM holdings currently. But at the moment PMs seems like the only safe haven (for now, under current rules) from the Oligarchs and their attack on the commoners.
I dont think it is the small holder that is the problem for the Cartel at the moment, it is the buyers looking to make a killing out of them or force delivery.
As per Harvey Organ their troubles didn't go away, though I guess if they have a lower price to cover at, but will force it up if they do. If I am understanding this right.
Kina, thanks for the reply.
I am considering the alternatives to position into PMs. I have no safe place to store physical PM, so I'm wondering are any of the electronic share methods safe? For example, the SPDR GLD gold shares are based on physical holdings maintained by a Custodian (HSBC Holdings plc). Can HSBC be trusted or are they in bed with TPTB? And if GLD shares are considered safe, is there a silver based equivalent? (Please excuse the obvious PM virgin questions)
No. I wouldn't be trusting them at all.
Depending on how much you want to buy coins should be relatively easy to hide.
I am in Australia so I use the Perth Mint to buy coins but also buy allocated gold/silver that they hold. It has a guarantee from the West Aust government as well and seems to be one of the more trustworthy places around.
Anybody can establish an account with them.
http://www.perthmint.com.au/metalPrices.aspx
Thanks Kina.
*
You might want to look at Bullionvault.com as a way to own physical outright safely.
Thanks. I'll take a look.
Repeat deleted.
The problem with trying to stop Americans owning silver is that much of it may drain away to Asia where there are no restricition, and in fact is been positively encouraged. They will want to think twice about coming up with restricitions.
Also it would be interesting to Asia / China come out in such circumstance and make an offer to buy silver direct from Americans at something above a then depressed spot. Silver would leave for foreign shores quite fast.
Also nothing to stop Americans buying their silver overseas, quite easy now days. You can set up an account with the Perth Mint and buy at will.
In addition to what kina wrote:
Things like taxes, especially "after the fact" would be very hard to do, at least not without a long time of preparations.
Reasons:
1. Things like taxes are multinational affairs. Doing such a thing globally in a coordinated way is not something that can be orchestrated quickly - not without a global event affecting everyone and acting as justification.
2. For "small buyers", legislating something like a property tax is useless. Hey, where i live, i in theory am only allowed to own a certain amount of PMs, without tellinig the gov. But: There are no checks when trading - one can trade completely anonymously.... so, it in practice is purely voluntarily. Hypothetic scenario: The gov NOW legislates a property tax on PMs..... by law, i "should" tell them..... hello, why the fuck should i? A law has no teeth without enforcement... and to enforce something like this after the fact, what are they gonna do? Let the army search every house in the country???? Just for a few commoners holding small amounts of PM? Naaaah.
So, with the "little man" out of the equation, what else are they gonna do, hmm? Outlaw corporations from owning metals? May i remind you - its not just gold and silver. They cannot ban an entire economic sector!
They get to set the rules for paper, not physical reality. If they start playing games like that, real silver will simply move to the black market, and the US would become the laughing stock of the world (AGAIN) as the COMEX price would be totally ignored worldwide, and trading would move to foreign exchanges.
Do you guys think Silver will be slow out of the gate early this week because of Monday's margin hike(5th)? Also, how many more times can they(CMX) raise it and how fast can they implement it in the system? (just learning)
Fried(e)
It will be volatile. It could go in any direction.
And the CME can raise margin requirements every day from now until the sun goes dim. It will eventually kill the exchange. Hell, the exchange is probably already dead, just zombified, with all these deliveries of funny money instead of silver taking place.
Someone will come along and deliver a head shot eventually. Sooner it would have to be someone big and powerful, like China, later it could be a concerted group of investors, eventually, when there is literally no silver left and the market has frozen up due to artificially low spot prices, a single investor standing for a single contract could deliver the headshot.
We'll see. In the meantime, I will continue accumulating physical silver at these sale prices, which are not as great as the drop in spot prices would lead one to believe.
Yes - volatile indeed (not for faint at heart)
tmos, thanks for the info and reply
Fried(e)
Strange Days - Its not that you think strange things are happening in the world, but rather, stranger things are happening more then you think...
Hmm silver has fallen back to February prices in AUD, not too shabby given the nuclear level attack by the cartel and TPTB on silver.... so not that shabby really.
And about what, 70% AUD up in the past 12 months and thats with a super strong AUD supressing the price which also about what I am up on my holdings as well.
And the evidence is the cartel still have the problem of people standing for delivery. So we will expect another missile or two to hit silver monday?
Will they be so brave? Will the FBI be watching them and CFTC this time around?
In the long run they are all fucked because the US economy is and thus BB will have no option but to print or default.
Depends on your entry point and boldness. Let's consider the worst case scenario.... all out nuclear attack in a short timespan - shorter than you can sell (so, getting thrown under a bus)... after the dust clears, where will prices balance again in the midterm? I cannot imagine it staying below 15 for long. If your entrypoint was near this, and you do not need to sell it, you're invincible. There is nothing short of outright military action they can do to you.
Your entrypoint is higher, or you're scared? Then get out of the line of fire, by switching metals.
No doubt, anything can happen.
Uncle Gorilla can change the rules any time. Raise taxes on PM sales, raise capital gains taxes on collectible coins to 50%, institute a "Budget Reduction Sales Tax" on all bullion purchases.
Any number of tools can be used.
But in the meantime, Macy's, Starbucks, Hansen's Energy, and other retailers and consumer stocks continue to rise as the coming economic and employment boom in 2012 approaches.
St*rbucks? I dont know who's going to afford $5/gal gas($1.35L in Ont) nevermind $5 Grande Fruckacino's...can you put it in your gas tank? I brew my own coffee or go to Tim Hortons like half the country does.(Hamilton alone has 100+ Tim Hortons for a pop. of 500,000)
Macy's? Again, who is going to afford(consistently) higher end clothing and apparel? Our busiest clothing stores are Winners and 'George' at Walmart. Macys? What is this? - a Miracle on 54th Street? No one will be able to afford those high prices.
Hansens's Energy?(whoever the hell he is) I chop wood(hard) and burn that for energy.
F**k all that lulu lemon, rickhansen energy, starbucks, etc... Maybe in a different time and different place...
Fried(e)
Yes, idiot AND coward.
You might as well stick your head in the sand, you damned idiot.
RobotLemmimg, do yourself and everyone here a favor, and just kill yourself already.
I can't stand your mindless stock pumping, your mindless pro-Establishment blather, and above all, the craven, fetid and venal cowardice that oozes from your every worthless pore.
RobotLemming, you represent everything I loathe. I hate you, and every dumb, spineless conformist like you.
as the coming economic and employment boom in 2012 approaches.
now I understand why you are junked in a commonplace manner
I will post no furthur comments in support of you
what the fuck
Robotrader(Rasputin on Prudent Bear Chat) is a liar and a fraud. He disputed the shortages the last time they occurred in 2008, and I called him out then. At that time Hannes Tulving admitted over the phone that he had no eagles, and neither did anyone else. Rasputin screamed and cried about silver spoons, and how they were destined to fail. He was wrong then, and he's wrong now. An utter and complete failure. Welcome to the world of physical silver, we've been fighting these trolls for nearly a decade...
Silver For The People
http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF?feature=mhum
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"What we've got here is failure to communicate"
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and most importantly
"Can we all just get along?"
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Robo is on other sites?
I wonder how he has time?
Granted once you have captured the poon it doesnt take a lot of time to service it, but there are only 24 hours in a day.
The only way i can keep up is to go mobile.
Thanks for pointing out Robo's true intentions fiftybagger. There are no questions on this anymore. The guy's clearly a troll.
Robotrader(Rasputin on Prudent Bear Chat)
Oh now I get it
what a piece of shit
IF Obama is keen to get oil down rather than tax drivers on distance driven why not give financial advantage for using public transport, and also invest more in public transport thus help the local automotive industry.
- Too reasonable.
- Too longterm efficient
- Would require fundamental changes, rather than patches and incremental additions
- Not what major lobbies want
In other words: Politicians are about themselves and those who pay them. Their modern job isn't solving problems, improving the country as a whole longterm, and certainly not representing the population. Think of them as CEOs of megacorporations: They want to stay in power, get rich and appeal to the shareholders. And no, the shareholders are not the population. The population is the lower level workforce, that gets paid ever lower real wages.
why not give
anything the Federal govt GIVES it has to TAKE from someone else
how about you don't let them set the metrics of the conversation?
Hey, I wonder when General Jim is going to post this on jsmineset?
Probably an hour or two after you make a post apologising for all of your stupid calls that have gone so horribly awry that you simply refuse to talk about, while pretending that you are doing better than a 100% gain in the last 12 months.
You are a fucking moron if you think General Jim and crew have fucking miners as core positions. They have PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER IN THAT ORDER.
But you don't care, because you are a living sack of shit with a superiority complex.
All i see is another 'blip' in the 10 year rise in the Gold price Robot! ...you making another one of your stupid predictions again?
...isn't the skier a better representation of your reputation at ZH?
...General Jim has just a 'slightly' better record than you at predicting the Gold price and at investing in Gold miners (your miner still underwater RT?)... you really are quite pathetic
Insecurity at its finest.
The next ace in the sleeve of the CRIMEX could be that once margin has been hiked to 100 % they could start to simply increase contract sizes from 5000 troy ounces to 10000 per one contract.
Although I guess at 100 % = ~$200000, most mom and pop retail traders would have been squeezed out anyway.
Retail futures traders would have to cooperate with each other and pool their money.
Just my 2 ounces.
That is a logical next step. I think it would happen well before they reached 100% margin, though.
all the more reason private investors 'Exit Left' take their business private and leave the CME/Crimex sucking their exhaust fumes after last weeks rotten shambles
CME/Crimex cannot be trusted, game over
*
I am finding the comments section on ZH to be gradually less and less worth reading... I'll be sticking to the ZH posts pretty much from now on.
That list was unnecessary and counterproductive.
The quality may have gone down, because of the people on the list. But you may not make that connection and bite the hand that feeds you, nostradumbass. Or maybe some kind of weird sense of "morals" is telling you that one should be nice and fair to parasites.
But as i wrote in this thread and others, such a list shouldn't even be necessary. The junk system instead should be upgraded, or the ability ignore users should be implemented. Problem is: none of the members is able to do this.
How is it "counterproductive" to point out lies and misinformation?
The newbies get their chains yanked by these pathetic losers and that's okay with you? Not "necessary" to oppose them?
Politically correct doesn't exist here at Fight Club. Thank goodness.
*
I was a newbie. I made it through OK. I read EVERYTHING.
List making reminds me of naziism and is especially bad when the list is incorrect and has names on it that don't belong there.
I do not expect nor want a "politically correct" environment here or at large... I am an pseudo-anarchist at heart and like to ferret out my own truth.
A pseudo-anarchist..... okay, that explains it. Posting such a list of course implies some kind of claim to control, and a hierachy (some posters are "better" than others")..... when what you want is...... ummm...... nothing specific really.... whatever randomly happens.... you know, just let anyone do whatever he/she wants to do, whatever the consequences are, however that affects others.
I believe this time is different, the central banker printing presses have completely run amok! All that is needed is an event to trigger the crisis. It seems to be simply a matter of time. The problem is no one knows when, where, or what will be the trigger! I would have hope if the POLs were showing signs of being serious, but they are not.... at all!
Different? I thought so, too.
Then I went back and looked at the last peak in silver, 1980. In the two years preceding that peak, M1 was averaging .65% growth per month (vs. .64% today) and M2 was growing at .75% vs only .25% today.
MB is a different story. That is where the excess bank reserves are parked. They are the threat, though they are not necessarily headed into any of the other monetary aggregates, as banks are not lending.
I am not fond of Bernanke, but this is looking more and more as if the prime culprit is the deficits. I need to do some more work.
....eBay may have just replaced Crimex as the pricing mechanism for silver...the internet can really level the playing field.
1 - Canadian 2011 Timber - auction - 12 bids - $67?!?! - 9m left...
1- Cnd 2011 Grizzly - same idea...9 bid...$66
(but shipping is free:-)
Fried(e)
the 28% drop this week is the worst since 1975, this a hitsorical week
Awww, man, only 35.62 this weekend? Cant those toothless exchanges give me a better price? Aren't they supposed to be a gorilla, bear or giant or something? I'm cheap.
Lehmans Dick Fuld was the "Gorilla".
No one can take this title from him.
There is no supply shortage of silver people! All of you silver hoarders think for a moment....where is your silver going? Where are all those Eagles and Maples going? In your closet!! They aren't being sold to industry or being melted to make stainless steel hospital equipment or solar panels.
Sure the Mint sells out of Ealges...but they are all ending up in Uncle' Bob's basement so he can make a Youtube video to show off his silver collection. That isn't supply issues...those are hoarding issues.
At some point, these uncle bobs are going to start selling their silver, and the world will be rife will supply again!
Thank you for your warmhearted and selfless advice !
Never would I assume that you did it with vested interest in mind.
If you believe that prices are going to fall then feel free to buy a put or sell a call with high delta, high omega and out of the money.
See you at the party.
Hey Doc, maybe start getting some solid info before popping off with such confident sounding fucking blather.
I like silver and am a buyer for my own reasons but not because there is any silver shortage.
I'm a silver owner yes...having bought most of my physical silver below $10.00 because I spotted an opportunity when the price of silver wasn't rising in relation to gold. I knew at some point the historical ratios would come back.
I'm just sick and tired of all this silver shortage talk bullshit because there is NO such shortage.
The physical market is driven by supply and demand. Right now there is a significantly increased demand for silver. There isn't enough supply. There is no "shortage" of it though. If everyone decided that tomorrow was they day they wanted to rid themselves of the silver in their basements then the market would be inundated with supply. Hence, you would get a price drop. There would be more silver than physical buyers ready to scoop it up. Thus, your price drop.
The prices rise when more and more people want silver and there isn't enough of it to sell to them. This doesn't mean there isn't silver to be had...it's just that the uncle bob youtubers have it all in their basements.
As has happened over the last 3 months or so, it seems everyone has woken up to the need to own silver. Therefore, if everyone decides that they want to own silver there is a demand issue...nota shortage issue. I happily sold some of my silver in the high 40's. I will gladly buy it back at these levels. What's the fucking point of owning it if you are never going to sell it?
Those who can afford to buy at higher prices will. There will always be available sellers to sell silver to them at higher prices. Those who can't afford to buy silver at $50.00 an ounce won't but not because there is a shortage of silver but because they can't afford it.
I don't blather Bay of Pigs ... I will eat you up when it comes to silver arguments. I'm not some fucking silver band-wagon jumper ... I've been serious about silver for over a decade. (1994 to be exact is when my first major purchase was made).
Too many people are buying silver for reasons they don't even understand. When that happens you have an irrational market.
So I will continue to put my short run Maples on Ebay so that the irrational heads out there can buy them up for $50-$60.00 so that I can rationally buy back silver in the lower range. Bought a whole whack on for $37.95 the other day.
Next question?
If you dont understand the point of owning it, you dont understand the basics and you're just another fucker trying to make a buck.
And tell me sir....am I being a fucker for selling silver I bought at $7.00 at $50.00++ ??? And repurchasing more for sub $40? (ie more ounces?).... as long as there is a fucking idiot who wants to pay stupid prices on Ebay for silver, I'm willing to sell it, lock in my price at the dealer and order more ounces. It's called capitalism man.
And I understand the reasons for owning it. Not shortage...but because of all the Fiat currency concerns coupled with inflation.
But, if you can't spot a move that has gotten ahead of itself and react to it, then you should be re-analyzing your investment strategies.
to make stainless steel hospital equipment
bwahahahaa
IS ZEROHEDGE CENSORING AND DELETING ALL FUKUSHIMA RELATED POSTS? WHY IS THERE NO MORE REPORTING ON THIS ONGOING ISSUE?
You are on the wrong site for that. Try Washington's blog, I'm sure he is still on the enviro rant.
http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/
What breaking news have you seen that ZeroHedge is suppressing? There's nothing I know of coming out of Japan but a steady stream of government and TEPCO pollyanna bullcrap. If you got something...share it!
I've been haunting Asahi Shimbun, Kyodo, EX-SKF's blog, NHK and every other source I can dredge up. Until some ill placed aftershock brings #4's SFP crashing down a couple of floors, one of the reactors overheats or some undeniable steam explosion breaks the stasis I doubt the people that have real information will be talking much. They're only telling what they want known or what they can no longer hide. That's not going to change until some new event overtakes their ability to hide.
The bottom line is that they've done nothing that has even a remote chance of stabilizing the situation. They're still focusing on just getting human beings inside reactor #1 and saying nothing about the other three.
They're pumping highly radioactive water out of the basements as fast as they can and available storage capacity is almost full. Last I heard the water levels are rising faster than they're pumping. 2 months in and they're still sitting at square one....and losing ground slowly.
The mess has not gotten better but it's kinda hard to report anything when the ones that know aren't talking.
Hey guys!
Here's a hilarious animation exhorting folks to get even against the banksters and government:
http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/join-sla-to-get-even-and-...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qM_U6awQze8
Jim Traficant unloads.....
Time to party...
http://morallowground.com/2011/04/20/the-admiral-im-mad-and-i-want-to-ha...
Who said anything about a silver shortage? Isn't that what price is for?
So a few little margin hikes busts the backs of a speculative bubble? And everyone bitches (sorry bitchez)about $4 gas? What are you waiting for Chicago? Jack up the margin on everthing else and put these hedge funds and ETF's out to pasture.
Actually, it did took a bit more than a few hikes, both back then for the hunts, and also the recent sabotage. In the recent example, market confidence first got "prepared" via increasingly more frequent hikes.... then at a date strangely coinciding with the prez announcement, yet with no plausible connection (not considering the intensity and that gold first was strangely unaffected), a giant fat finger moves the market in the after-hour no-mans-land in less than half an hour from 50$ down to 42$. Silver tumbled shellshocked around there, and for the "job" to be completed, it had to be pushed around with after-hour flash-crashes some more time, coinciding with... i lost counting, how many hikes in TWO days?
I dunno, they obviously are capable of doing this (and i suspect could do even more), but that certainly doesn't sound like a cheap weapon. And quite obviously even a marketmaker with the propaganda-gloves off, cannot afford to do this too often, unless he WANTS to totally destroy all trust, and only leave a radiated wasteland where there once was a market.
The very fact that board members can actually short and be influenced by market participants or "outside consultants" who can also short and then write the rules is wrong in and of itself. This a blatant market manipulation and needs to be stopped, regulated, and penalized. Another new low as to how the markets are controlled by the centrally planned regime in order to perpetuate their control and further destroy the free market.
Seriously f'ed up man.
May 1st I am sure has some significance to the global elitists as they pursue their collective desire to enslave the rest of humanity. If only a few of them would challenge the diseased leadership in some way and should enough of these rebels survive such an honourable act then it would be less people for the rest of humanity to have to hunt down and bring to justice. "On January 21 1980, the Comex announced that trading would be limited to liquidation orders only. There would be no more futures buying. The game was closing down." So much for the price discovery mechanism involving willing buyers and willing sellers. Could the same move be coming again ? Now I know that we can expect something nefarious on or around each May 1st but I would also very much like to take advantage of other times they might strike, so are there other dates significant to the global elitists that anyone is aware of ?Just compare the price chart of Gold in Euro with the
one of Gold in USD and you'll see where we're going.
This is the end game for the USD, so: _btfd_