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How Ireland Can Leave The Euro: One Expert's View

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Via adamsmith.org

The following memo, which has fallen into our hands, is a draft of
advice to the new Irish Minister for Finance from a British colleague
who has a wealth of expertise on how to handle economic crises. He
prefers to remain anonymous for professional reasons.

Dear Minister,

Congratulations on your new appointment. As you read the civil
service briefings on the present crisis, you will come to appreciate
that Ireland's problems would be much easier to manage if your
administration could choose the country's own exchange rate and interest
rate. However, your officials and your colleagues may believe that
there is no practical way to leave the present European monetary union
and so achieve this flexibility.

In fact, there is. Leaving the euro is politically tricky and
economically costly in the short-term. But it is far from impossible.
The long-term advantages clearly outweigh the short-term costs, and the
politics can be managed. The following outlines how it can be done:

1. Announce on a Sunday morning that Ireland is “temporarily suspending” its euro area membership.

It is obviously vital that this announcement come as a surprise to
markets. So you cannot discuss it with many people in advance. The
Taoiseach and the Governor of the Banc Ceannais na hÉireann must
obviously be informed and agree. However, even discussing the idea in a
wider circle is likely to lead to leaks; in turn, this will cause a run
on Irish banks and a complete collapse of deposits, destroying what is
left of the economy.

2. As of L Day (Leaving Day), all Irish assets and
liabilities are denominated in the ‘Irish euro’, initially at the
exchange rate 1:1.

This means that there is limited disruption of cash. People will
continue to use euro coins with the Irish national side and euro
banknotes with the letter ‘T’ (for Ireland) in the serial number. You
thus avoid having to change ATMs or any other machines that take cash.
For the initial period of a fixed exchange rate (see below), Gresham’s
Law will operate and ‘non-Irish euros’ will disappear from circulation
in Ireland. You may later wish to take a leaf from the successor states
of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and stamp ‘Irish euros’ to highlight
their national character further.

3. Announce that there will be temporary exchange
controls pending a resolution of outstanding issues such as Irish
euro-denominated debt.

On this, you have a choice. You can announce that Ireland will honour
its euro-denominated debt until roll-over. This puts the exchange-rate
risk on you. Since a main reason for Ireland to leave the euro area
would be to devalue, this move would increase your debt, but would
facilitate any negotiations with your euro area partners. However, it is
an expensive route.

You may therefore prefer to announce that as of L Day (Leaving Day)
all external Irish euro-denominated debts are also denominated in the
‘Irish euro’. That puts the exchange rate risk on your creditors. It is
cheaper, though it leaves you open to substantial lawsuits.

The exchange rate will of course not remain fixed for long. Nor would
you want it to. But until the transition period is over, you may have
to rely on the black market (which you will, of course, criticise) to
provide you with accurate information about the appropriate Irish/euro
are exchange rate.

4. You should in any case now go for a default –
which of course you will describe as “a renegotiation of public debt”.
Since you will in any case devalue (which is a form of default) you
might as well get everything out of the way at the same time. Offer
creditors a (say) 50% haircut on any debt that is maturing over the next
few years; or a new bond maturing (say) 15 years down the line. With
any luck, they will take the 50% and run.

You will no doubt be told that if you do this, Ireland will be shut
out of capital markets for years, perhaps decades to come. Perhaps. But
if you have a primary budget surplus you will not need to borrow much
anyway. Moreover, history clearly shows that when the only threat your
creditors hold over you is that, should you default, they won’t lend you
any more money, then you should default at once. In any case, knowing
international markets, they will realise that the combination of
default, devaluation and a return to being able to set a monetary policy
suitable for Irish needs, will actually give a boost to the economy.
They will therefore be eager to lend.

5. One last thing. You will eventually want to move
away from ‘Irish euros’ to a proper national currency (you can still
keep notes and coins looking the same to ensure that cash machines will
work). When you do, I suggest that you do not tie your currency to any
other currency – the whole point of this exercise is to be able to
conduct an independent monetary policy in the interests of Ireland.

Yours faithfully,

(signed)

cc, mutatis mutandis, to Ministers of Finance of Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy – and Germany.

 


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Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:24 | Link to Comment gorillaonyourback
gorillaonyourback's picture

makes good sense to me, get nigel farage's opinion as well

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 18:57 | Link to Comment prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

When you go into a bank to buy a mortgage, understand you are not borrowing other peoples money, that would be illigal with fractional reserve banking; new money is created with everybank loan.  A better fix for Ireland would be to take all government funds out of private banks, incorporate the state bank of ireland, and leverage government funds into the economy as loans, with state bank dividends put to offset tax receipts.

 

Bankers would have us believe it is their sole right to conjure into existence our money supply, and they tell government that it should not be in the banking business, and that money creation is best left to banks.

 

Government should tell the bankers that money creation is the greatest sovereign authority of government, and banks should get out the government business of money creation. This should be a policy referendum to be voted on. Long live the State Bank of North Dakota, and the others that are soon to follow.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 19:06 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

Everything The Irish need to know, how to tell the international banksters to fuck off, has already been figured out.

Why reinvent the wheel.

Red Ice Radio - Birgitta Jonsdottir - Pt 1 - Financial War Against Iceland

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUNpIbhaY1Y

Red Ice Radio - Birgitta Jonsdottir - Pt 2 - Financial War Against Iceland

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoUtDnoeYlo&feature=related

Red Ice Radio - Birgitta Jonsdottir - Pt 3 - Financial War Against Iceland

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Whf_wWkgQBY&feature=related

Red Ice Radio - Birgitta Jonsdottir - Pt 4 - Financial War Against Iceland

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gwP7-v5IcY&feature=related

Red Ice Radio - Birgitta Jonsdottir - Pt 5 - Financial War Against Iceland

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vp2-mpILDIE&feature=related

Red Ice Radio - Birgitta Jonsdottir - Pt 6 - Financial War Against Iceland

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHk-UYZuXE4&feature=related

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 19:14 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Yes  - there is a huge trade surplus in Ireland now (although it is primarily due to multinationals food price rises have also  greatly helped )

In fact on a per ca pita basis it is much larger then Germany

The depression in Ireland is merely a balance sheet banking construct although a increase of domestic demand via a central bank filling in the credit black hole would narrow the above surplus.

A state industrial bank could also serve to increase domestic demand via internal capital formation rather then consumption - the building of sugar factories knocked down in the interests of property speculation come to mind and would be a start.

Unfortunetly the new coalition will sell off the remaining state assets such as power stations at knock down prices - once the ECBs client multinationals get these remaing jewels they will then increase the money supply so that these new power stations can make a profit from this new "surprising" demand increase.

Very very sad.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:23 | Link to Comment Doeko
Doeko's picture

Wtf this is ridiculous. You can't create a new currency overnight without barely anyone's prior knowledge and not expect basically the world to end.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Thats right. They started designing the Euro in 1962

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Doeko
Doeko's picture

Either way, while I don't believe this could possibly come from any political figure let alone someone in the finance ministry of the UK, I won't pass by this opportunity to say what a goddamn trojan horse the UK has been and is to the EU. Should've never let those complainy, whiny gits into the union. Would be so much better off if Nigel Farage had his way.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 21:04 | Link to Comment virgule
virgule's picture

This never-ending euro-bashing on ZH strikes me as odd: every argument put forth could be applied to the states of the United States, as a possible element of a way forward - but somehow this aspect never makes into the debate.

I'd love to see a point-by-point comparison of the implications of a state leaving it's currency zone, for both zones.

 

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:51 | Link to Comment slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

cool...then about how telling the 'EU powers that be' to tell the bond holders take 1 cent in the dollar haircut, for Ireland NOT to do this.....suddenly a country is blackmailing the bankers...lol

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 21:11 | Link to Comment YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

+

Falls flat on his face at point 1. "will cause a run on Irish banks and a complete collapse of deposits, destroying what is left of the economy" . What a great strategy. Not. 

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:23 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Nobody is leaving the fuckin Euro, its not going to happen. That is why the Euro will out live the dollar. What is right with it is what is wrong with it.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:35 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Offer ireland iceland and greenland NAFTA membership.

I seriously doubt that the northern euro countries will permanently subsidize their south. I wouldnt be so confident about the euro.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Nozza
Nozza's picture

Deep

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 19:34 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

You know it.

We can see the whole Euro zone in a long drawn out fight about monetary policy. Compare that to the US where one asshole just decides how much money to print and how much bonds to buy.

By the time the ECB decides on anything, Bernank will have flooded the world with dollars. Its happening right now.

The Eurozone is trade nuetral, a net creditor

The Eurozone has the largest gold hoard, not the US.

The Eurozone is China's largest trading partner, not the US.

The Euro has allot going for it.

 

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:57 | Link to Comment barliman
barliman's picture

 

Excellent! Twenty nine words to put forward three unsupported propositions although the third one is more faux zen than insight. Let's back up a few steps ...

1. "Nobody is leaving the fuckin Euro ..." - grew up in mob land. This is so reminiscient of how they phrased their threats when they were threatened. Aside from that, WHY is no one leaving the Euro? Social sentiment in the individual countries is so strongly in favor of it? One common currency is working out so well for Greece, Ireland, France, Germany, Spain ??? (pick one or more)

2. Based on unsubstantiated number 1, and ignoring the possibility of multiple sovereign defaults, WHY will the Euro live out the dollar? Underlying asset values in the Euro countries are greater than in the United States?

3. "What is right with it, is what is wrong with it." - FIFY, you really need the punctuation. Self contradictory but sounds snappy, doesn't it? It may have a number of things right but the hundreds of trillions of dollars in leveraged CDS's, CDO's, etc are likely to render everything else moot since the Euro itself is not backed by PM's, oil, corn, rice, wheat or any other hard asset. History in Europe says, "When one party owes money to another party and doesn't pay it back, war is not far off."

You may have some valid points ... but you haven't made them yet.

 

barliman

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 18:31 | Link to Comment Bearster
Bearster's picture

+1 for a righteous takedown.  + another 1 for a great one-liner "you may have some valid points ... but you haven't made them yet."

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 19:34 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

1)Haha,social sentiment. There is a reason why the average person should have no say in monetary policy.

2)We all know about the swap lines from the Fed to EU banks. This makes little sense, aside from system risk and really that could be the ECB handling it. However if looking at Freegold  there is a rational. The EU banking system could is holding the $IMFS hostage. "Give me dollars or we pull the plug now and kick on freegold". I could still see them putting a bid in for gold, but it would make sense why the Fed is basically handing them dollars. Kick the can and all. I notice Trichet is remarkably cool with QE2 while the rest of the world is screaming bloody murder.

3) The Euro is not backed by gold but the ECB marks its gold holdings to market on the international reserve side of its balance sheet every month while the Fed has no gold and the treasury has theirs marked at $42.00. Its called Freegold. A fall in the dollar is captured by the Euro.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 23:16 | Link to Comment barliman
barliman's picture

 

Ok, you don't have a clue ...

1) Good news, you will be rewarded for your elitist attitude some day soon.

2) How will they demand anything if the dollar has folded? Trichet is cool with QE2 ...

3) A fall in the dollar is captured by the goods and services offered by the E.U. and impacts their trade balances, cost of living adjustments (inflation will destroy E.U. competitiveness in global trade as it is passed through in 2012 and beyond) ...

Your understanding and judgement is appropriate to your chosen username.

 

barliman

Tue, 03/01/2011 - 01:06 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

1)Taking the punchbowl away doesn't require an elitist, it just requires someone who knows something about money.

2)The world will be forced to use the Euro when the dollar folds. What else is there ? It is the first non nation state currency. Just tell me what else there is.

3)The dollar is being hyperinflated as we speak, the Euro is not. The EU does not have reserve currency status to lose, the US does. Anything that happens to the EU will be that much worse in the US.

This is over your head.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:33 | Link to Comment baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Speaking of THE VIEW... anyone catch AJ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffxOnzYVps0

He talks about the Banks, the audience CHEERS!

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 19:36 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

Thanks. I thought he was out of town. No new show on Sunday and today.

Boy that was beautiful. AJ's got those bitches number trying to narrow the discussion. AJ was having none of that.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Bryan
Bryan's picture

This guys first mistake is assuming that politicians listen to reason over immediate political gratification.

Tue, 03/01/2011 - 00:02 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Hmm, will the Irish Mafia be allowed to leave the syndicate?  The World wonders...

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Zeilschip
Zeilschip's picture

Ireland should join the British Pound. That will really fuck them up.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

The old Punt was tied to the Pound for decades. Worked until it didn't.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Lets Hang Parliament
Lets Hang Parliament's picture

But beats linking to the green back!!

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:25 | Link to Comment sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

Domino, MF!

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:31 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

It could work.

We should then immediately offer NAFTA membership to ireland iceland and greenland.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I already said this 2 months ago.

These new euro's exist already.

I've bought one of those proof coins on a auction, and the way they differ is the size of the coins.

The logic is:

Normal money is backed up by something (mostly gold).

You'll have union backed coins

and

You'll have country backed euro coins.

 

SO:

You can print/coin money but by a metal that backs up the value as is.

 

Now, everybody thought this to be silver, but as there is a supply problem with that they'll try a CU/NI coins 150% of the size of the current coins.

If those will fail, the second option will be (I can't remember the name) but a blue metal looking coin.

 

Tue, 03/01/2011 - 00:03 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The Bluero, FTW!

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:34 | Link to Comment themosmitsos
themosmitsos's picture

Once again, continuing the Anglo-American idiotic fantasy of EU disintegration. Keep dreaming

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:42 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Of Deathheads and gold-fillings."  There is indeed "always a solution" isn't there.  I am curious about the "transition period" presented in this wonderful missive--we talkin' seconds?  or nano-seconds?

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 19:15 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Not a fantasy, just seems to be unraveling. Don't pull on any strings on the fringe or it all goes

Tue, 03/01/2011 - 01:11 | Link to Comment Attitude_Check
Attitude_Check's picture

RIIIGHT,  ignore the fact that Greece will never pay it's debts under any plausible scenario, ditto Portugal, Spain, and Italy.  Ignore the likely Irish public response when the pain of the forced IMF German/French bank bailout at the expense of the entire Irish country.  Continue to play dumb as this financial crisis re-awakens nationalism on the continent!

 

I'm sure it will all turn out OK in the end.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:38 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

I vote for the cheaper option, countersue preemptively in a special Irish Kangaroo Debt Court in Belfast, and tell them to fuck off. I would also add a #6 to the list below:

"You may therefore prefer to announce that as of L Day (Leaving Day) all external Irish euro-denominated debts are also denominated in the ‘Irish euro’. That puts the exchange rate risk on your creditors. It is cheaper, though it leaves you open to substantial lawsuits."


6. Announce that L Day (Leaving Day) shall henceforth be an annual Irish National Holiday known as "Banker Independence Day" with free beer for everybody.


Mon, 02/28/2011 - 18:53 | Link to Comment hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

6. ... with free beer for everybody.

 

And that would leave ereyone, well, pissed.

Then they could then piss off instead of fuck off.

And if they dusted off their damascus shotguns and could find shells that would still fire, they could dare someone to cross the channel to enforce the euro.

I promise I wont post for another three days.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:40 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

From Bloomberg's "Inside Surveillance" today:

"Philip Lane, Professor of International Macroeconomics at the University of Dublin's Trinity College, says the electorate in Ireland "punished the ruling party, but gave a resounding vote for the same policies."

Sometimes, they post excerpts here:  http://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts/surveillance/

otherwise, it is a subscription through iTunes.

I guess when a Professor of International MACROeconomics speaks, that's kinda' like a very special version of an economics PhD.  'cuz what he did say was nothing like what has been posted hereabouts.

- Ned

 

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:39 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Ireland has only one real solution : win the world cup of rugby, and her problems are over. We will all buy irish beer and come live in ireland. No more  real estate nightmares. Even the Kiwis will use dublin as their local headquarters for their european tours. The answer lies in the soil...plant potatoes and barley or wheat and you'll make a ton of money. In China which lacks food.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:59 | Link to Comment baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

I have a solution... It has been with all of us since the school yard.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUgCxVbtlMQ

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 18:18 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

The problem with default is two fold: one, it benefits the people at the expense of the bankers and investors. Two, it cuts the politicians off from the money spigot. Government would have to live within the value of it's national production.

Did I say problems? Perhaps solution would have been a better word...

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 18:23 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

maybe they could change their name to "Iceland" and nobody would notice?

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 18:37 | Link to Comment toto
toto's picture

will work for food.

Another way out.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 18:46 | Link to Comment pappacass
pappacass's picture

Ireland will not do anything to rock the European boat, Inda has already been to Brussels and knows whats expected of him.  It's his chance to get on the gravy train now.  The election has left us with a sence of dread as things will now only get worse.  Privitisation of everything left thats nailed down and sold back to the dumbass population who are walking around with 1000 yard stares not realising their pants are down but grateful for all the bars of soap littered around outside the banks, even if there is a sharp pain in the buttocks everytime one bends down to pick one up.

Thank God the news keeps telling us that things will be 'alright', eventually..

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 19:39 | Link to Comment barliman
barliman's picture

 

"Ireland will not do anything to rock the European boat, ..."

WOW! Really?!? Leaving behind voting down the European Union constitution in the recent past, are we? Blowing up stuff in Britain for 60+ years not covered in your schooling or conveniently forgotten?

Let's test your bollocks, shall we? Walk into any pub frequented by the Irish and repeat your " ... the dumbass population who are walking around with 1000 yard stares not realising their pants are down but grateful for all the bars of soap littered around outside the banks, even if there is a sharp pain in the buttocks everytime one bends down to pick one up." crap ... but make sure your affairs are in order before you do it.

 

barliman

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 20:37 | Link to Comment Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

The more they fight, the less they will have a chance to  fuck things up

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 23:18 | Link to Comment barliman
barliman's picture

 

Please go into politics or MSM were you may find an audience for your vacuity.

Here's one for you to Google:

"All political power grows out of the barrel of a gun."

 

barliman

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 18:57 | Link to Comment Steroid
Steroid's picture

I was looking for one word in the proposal: GOLD. Not even mentioned.

Whoever proposed this forgot that these are politicians. They will screw any and every currency up if they keep it under their control.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 19:12 | Link to Comment dirtydroog
dirtydroog's picture

I'm sorry but this is horseshit.

Here's some un-anonymous legal opinion on what it takes to leave the Euro

http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scplps/ecblwp10.pdf

 

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 19:15 | Link to Comment RoloTomassi
RoloTomassi's picture

this strategy is retarded

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 19:57 | Link to Comment strannick
strannick's picture

"You will no doubt be told that if you do this, Ireland will be shut out of capital markets for years, perhaps decades to come."

 

Exactly what they told Iceland. Now Icelands back in the saddle, but without the IMF saddle on its back.

Fuck the banks, the modern aristocracy.

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 19:59 | Link to Comment pappacass
pappacass's picture

Dear Mr barliman

a) yes my affairs are in order as any good Irishmans would be (or those with their pants pulled up at least)

b) with regards the Lisbon vote take 2, twas voted yes eventually because the Irish people we're told they were being ungrateful to the benevolent EU and duly conformed to said requirement (while unbuttoning their flys and wondering what the fuss was about)

c) with regards the independance struggles of the past may I inform you that certain, more nationalistic members of the populace have been struggling to kill the invader for 800 years now, with varying success.  However the point to bear in mind is that this was in the past and now I-phones have taken over along with wide screen t.v's.  Gerry Adams is now in the Dail, eager to suckle at the central bankers teet.

d) our schooling standards, while still good enough comparitivly speaking, are dropping fast but most kids can drop history at 14 years old and because of this a large part of the population still believe for example, that the famine was caused solely by a failure of the potatoe crop.

And e) if you really want to test my 'bollox' I would ask you a question before we get started, how do you like your kneecaps?  Metal or plastique?

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 23:40 | Link to Comment barliman
barliman's picture

 

Reply button too much a challenge?

Still have the original kneecaps and the question was about you testing YOUR bolloxs ... and I don't have the time to wait until they descend so ...

If you believe the Irish to be so tame as you have again proclaimed, off to a pub with you.

Or any number of bars in South Boston or Chicago will do, though be warned - they are of a more "liberated" mind set and will likely leave you to one of the women.

The potato famine was CAUSED by a blight upon the Irish potato crop but it was exacerbated by .... (clearing my throat so I can pronounce this right) ... the Fooking English.

I said this back when the Irish bailout was announced. I'll restate since you weren't here then. My money is on the Irish. Not because of genealogy or prejuidice for or against - but because they have been a poor country before and still bled their opponent for centuries

Tue, 03/01/2011 - 08:48 | Link to Comment pappacass
pappacass's picture

Mr Barliman

Thank you for the heads up on the reply button and excuse my ignorance on its use, I will endeavour to make better use of it in the future.  Please also don't confuse ignorance with stupidity, I remain ignorant of many matters, hence my presence on zerohedge, however I view stupidity as an unwillingness to learn, something that I hope I cannot be accused of.

I'm afraid to say if I were to wander into a bar in the US and declare that the Irish people are being arse raped then I don't think I would have to put my hand in my pocket for the night.  The reason that those bars are full of Irish folk is because they are aware of the arse raping and have left Gods country to escape it.  Thats not to say I wouldn't get a bloody nose eventually but rather it would be for a more colloquial argument

Yes these Irish are probably more liberated, if you could call it that, but from my time on zerohedge I don't think that they would be though maybe you disagree on the political status of you country.  To my mind they are not stupid people but the majority of them remain igonrant as to the causes of the problems in Ireland.  I believe that this is something common to most countries in the Western world wouldn't you say?

The youth are the one's with the 'balls' to leave and forge a better life for themselves but there is another way to view their decision.  It could be argued that they are the one's deserting their country in her hour of need.  They are the one's who are unwilling to stay and forge a better existence in Ireland, the one's, who through general ignorance of world matters, believe that Ireland is a lost cause as a political and social entity.  The selfish one's, who desert family and friends to fuck and fight in bars throughout the states, without a care.  I disagree with this, thats why I choose to remain and to inflict as many bloody noses as possible.

The older generations are a different mindset entirely (those that equate with your baby boomer generation) and I bet a lot of them are the alcoholic fighting Irish.  The majority of these poor lost souls grew up with institutional abuse and rape at the hands of the catholic church and the government and institutions that supported the church.  They then , upon leaving the institutions they were interned in their youth for being born bastards, found themselves outcasts.  Their numbers are in the 10's of thousands.

These are very broad categories and it is hard to generalise the Irish, to quote Freud 'the Irish are the only race that are immune to psychoanalysis.'  Those that are left in this country are broadly, the 'ball less' who are afraid to leave and afraid to change their ignorance, the large number who are participating in the raping of out country, and a  comparitive handful who would prefer to die standing than live on their knees.  I dislike the term sheeple but we are a country full of them.  As for our past it was always a small minority who rebelled, there were only a few hundred involved in the 1916 rising after all.

The question for me now is about paradigms.  Do I revolt as in times past and slowly loose my soul as my people die through war, hunger and collateral damage.  This I don't think I can live with.  Do I do nothing and accept my continuing slavery or do we try to find a more peacful way to subvert the system and forge a new one.  The third option is the one I hope for.  Unfortunately as stated before, most of the Irish right now are discussing English football teams, rugby internationals, the all Ireland talent show and the Eurovision song contest.  This in the height of our 'great political debate'  To discuss anything socio-economic in nature quickly gets you ostracised in any conversation and this will not change until much to late.

There will be a few of us who stand, the same as in your country I suspect, but I am confident enough in my opinions and views to enter an Irish bar anywhere in the world and utter what I wrote last night and find general agreement.  I would not recommend an American do this though, we Irish are very sensitive to critism from outsiders and are protective of our collective misery

 

Mon, 02/28/2011 - 20:48 | Link to Comment Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

How much more likely is the dollar going to be around 100yrs fr now vs the Euro? infinity to one?

Tue, 03/01/2011 - 03:35 | Link to Comment Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

How much more likely is the dollar going to be around...

 

Whose "dollar" are you referencing?  We've had and currently have several versions of currencies labeled "dollars" in circulation and there will no doubt be many found in collections and possibly circulating well into the future.

If however, your are referencing the notes issued by the private federal reserve in the Unitied States, that particular brand may be destined to disuse before the time you're allowing.

I'm no "expert" in the field as the author of this purported solution being proposed for Ireland, but I strongly suspect that if the US were to reopen their mints to the coining of intrinsically valuable currency and back it with United States notes issued by our treasury department redeemable in this coinage on par and without interest to serve as legal tender, US federal reserve notes would likely evaporate back into the ethreal world they were conjured up from in the first place.

 

Why a sovereign governments' temporarily employed elected legislators would abdicate constitutionally endowed authority to establish weights, measures and coin money and assign this authority to a private enterprise and pay interest on these instruments is treasonous. To allow it to continue is grounds for immediate repudiation of any other authority that may flow from their bowels.

 

The solution is very simple. Have our mints immediately cease and desist in their activities of stamping tokens for legal tender circulation, selling PM collectibles with misleading / fraudulent denomination values stamped on them and printing interest bearing mortgages (sold to this same company for conjured up notes), and begin immediately to issue intrinsically and truthfully stamped coinage backed by US government printed notes as legal tender redeemable without interest and on demand for said coinage.

imo.

 

Tue, 03/01/2011 - 04:23 | Link to Comment boogey_bank
boogey_bank's picture

If Ireland (or Italy, Portugal, etc.) will leave the euro, what will happen to irish j6p that has an euro denominated mortgage?... In Italy on the street side there are still corpses of people that made an ecu denominated mortgage in 1990 prior the speculative attack on the Lira and the "Britannia yacht" sale of Italy.

Tue, 03/01/2011 - 08:32 | Link to Comment Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

It will remain to be seen if the new government will put the interests of Ireland before the desire to "do the right thing" or be "good Europeans".

I think eventually the pressure and the threats of the ECB(its main threat is the 12.5% corporate tax rate) will overcome the desire by the new incumbents to call their bluff and leave the Euro,Ireland is now trapped in a nightmare of its own making,it should serve as an abject lesson to other small countries thinking of joining the single currency.

Tue, 03/01/2011 - 11:24 | Link to Comment oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

people who believe in this is buying TFJ.

hehe what a joke.

 

People will try to exchange their IEuro into real Euro in no time, and deposit all money into UK banks. This move will crash the entire financial system.

Amazing there are people believing in this on this forum. You supposed to be able to add, subtract, multiply before you can post.. anyway..

Did i tell you BTFD a few days ago? You guys are too negative and unamerican!!

 

 

Tue, 03/01/2011 - 12:02 | Link to Comment Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

Oh_Bama,

Euro is the strongest of the major western currencies bar the Swiss CHF,people are looking beyond the default/withdrawal scenarios.I don't think the ECB will allow any of them to escape,they are all trapped,they will all eventually have to live with whatever punishments are handed out,the politicians of the PIIG countries simply will not have the political will to do the right thing and withdraw.

If the FX markets thought the Euro was doomed, how come it is 25% higher than sterling five years ago?since everyone is focussing on the dire prospects for the Euro resulting from the problems of the PIIGS,what does that say about the value of sterling and the UK economy?

Tue, 03/01/2011 - 14:16 | Link to Comment oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

You are 100% right.. hehe.. But please try to be more funny and sacastic!!

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