How Mispriced Equity vs CDS Tail Risk Allowed A 158% Annualized Return In BP

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Wed, 10/06/2010 - 15:38 | 630157 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Such capital structure arbitrage trades will become increasingly more profitable as the Fed-created drift between equity and credit accelerates, and as vol pricing allows phenomenal arbitrage opportunities.

Almost like the Fed is distorting the markets deliberately as another way to reward....ops sorry.....strengthen the under capitalized my bad......bankrupt organized crime families disguised as FDIC insured banking institutions.

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 15:42 | 630164 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

All the gold/silver junior are at or below the prices they where when gold was at 1250, so all the 'liquidity' has to be comming from short gold/silver stock positions, I have not made a cent in gold/silver stock despite a 150 dolar rise from when I bought wtf ?!?!

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 15:48 | 630188 London Dude Trader
London Dude Trader's picture

Great cap structure arbitrage trade indeed.

Re. Pershing, it looks like Ackman made a plain directional bet by shorting BP credit through BP CDSs. 

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 15:51 | 630191 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Should any provisions be made here for the fact that equity options are guaranteed by the OCC and a CDS is contract is only as good as the couterparty's ability to make good on it?

Remember AIG?

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 15:52 | 630201 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

But...but..but the government is guaranteeing everything, right? Right? RIGHT?

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 16:02 | 630211 Mercury
Mercury's picture

I'm just asking and I'm not sure about what shiny new features the CDS market has post-AIG but if CDS protection on BP were backed up by an authority with a track record like the OCC wouldn't it be that much more expensive?  Ackman more or less walks on water as far as I'm concerned but the CDS leg of his trade could have involved signifigant couter-party risk compared to his equity option leg (if there was one).  Although if he knew of and vetted the actual counterparty in the transaction but still bought the CDS at the going, "market rate" then maybe it was a risk well worth taking.

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 16:28 | 630303 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I should have used a smiley face above. :>)

I work on the premise that when the crowd won't play out the same way it did in 2008-09. Back then the US Gvt had some credibility remaining. This has now been surgically removed by the Fed over the past two years.

So I trust nothing, no counter parties, no government, no central bank, no exit signs or "this way out" doors, not even my sister who's still plugged into the Matrix as a lawyer, trying to make her last killing before she's unplugged.

Ha ha, just kidding about the exit signs. 

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 16:44 | 630372 pyite
pyite's picture

If you are connected enough that Helicopter Ben has you on his speed dial - yes.


Wed, 10/06/2010 - 15:52 | 630200 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

I don't see the CDS unwind.

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 16:05 | 630220 omi
omi's picture

it's not arbitrage, more of a migration of risk along the capital structure.

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 16:07 | 630227 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Arbing mispriced vol

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 16:35 | 630338 wjs90
wjs90's picture

Maybe I don't remember correctly but I looked at this trade back then but using 5y CDS (realize 6mos matches tenors but 6m liquidity sucks) and depending on what crappy merton type model you use the vols and implied def probs were fairly ballpark.

This trade to me seems more like a bullish bet with downside hedging (or long risk and heding your neg tail) than a vol convergance type trade.  Worst case goes bk<6mos and breakeven PnL around 50 recovery so really only earn on upside.

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 16:32 | 630326 berlinjames02
berlinjames02's picture

I'm no expert on CDS contracts, but doesn't it also matter what the bond is, and the 'loss' caused by the event?

For example, what if the bond is senior, secured debt? If the bond defaulted, the CDS owner would only receive money for the loss he suffered. (That loss might not be that much; ex. a $10M contract loses 10%, or $1M.) However, the person would be on the hook for a $4.23M equity position (max pain = sum of equity puts).

That would be a ~$3.23M loss.

I've made similar trades in options and have gotten killed on such bets. Please correct me if I'm wrong or I am missing something?

I love the thought experiment and the trade that was presented. Thanks for the post Tyler. Hopefully I can learn something and make some 'MAD Money' like Jim Cramer. LOL!

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 16:48 | 630391 Zeilschip
Zeilschip's picture

In general, around 40% recovery is assumed, i.e. in case of default you'd make 6mm on the CDS. However, the example doesn't seem right, the negative carry alone for running three months of the CDS contract is $90k, that's not even taking into account the loss you'd make on the mark-to-market.

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 16:50 | 630405 jm
jm's picture

Selling vol carries big downside risk, and the CDS leg has limited upside.

But this works great whenever vol is elevated, which it was for BP, right?

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 16:40 | 630357 pyite
pyite's picture

This assumes that the loser on the CDS will actually pay up... is it possible to get default insurance against a CDS?  :P


Wed, 10/06/2010 - 18:08 | 630588 DagnyTaggart
DagnyTaggart's picture

How is this trade "Perfectly Hedged".  This trade is a disaster.  If the stock traded down hard, under 10 dollars say and did not default in six months you would get absolutely smoked.  In this environment this is a real possibility given bailout nation being applied to everyone and everything. 

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 18:27 | 630605 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Right, because an equity share price rout isn't the same thing as a debt default.

Back in the mid-2000's when convertible stock funds were the shit (buy the convert, collect the interest and short the common as a hedge, invest the proceeds) and touted as can't-lose money printing machines, GM's debt was suddenly downgraded, killing the price of the converts, then, Kirk Kerkorian, like 86 at the time and trying to impress his new girlfriend, announced a hostile bid for GM and sent the stock flying, squeezing the shorts.

Double ouch and so much for the perfect, apples/oranges hedge.

Wed, 10/06/2010 - 20:38 | 630894 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

 C'mon, this was the trade of a lifetime , expertly described as usual with every possible permutation lovingly itemized. 


 You're just jealous you didn't take it.


 And frankly, I don't think  you measure gain against margin unless you are trying to impress the ignorant.

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