How To Predict Market Capitulation Days (And How To Profit)

Tyler Durden's picture

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SheepDog-One's picture

WOW the rigged casino passin out cheat sheets? Truely BIZARRE!

French Frog's picture

When the rigged casino is passing out cheat sheets, it must mean that the rules of the games have changed (ie, the cheat sheets are now obsolete and (yet unrevealed) new rules are in play)

SheepDog-One's picture

'To try and create a systemic screening tool...' nice grammar Goldman idiots! Did you guys even get past the 3rd grade before skull and bones indoc course?

Borat's picture

Guess what TD... today is Capitulation Day. Enjoy.

Young's picture

Crude bitchez!

AccreditedEYE's picture

What good is this? We don't have capitulation anymore... that's old school! <sarc>  

old_turk's picture

Sell side school for people who don't mind going to hell for lying douchebags.

And they've got some great deals for condos in Florida too!

RobotTrader's picture

Do or Die for banks


reading's picture



The ISM reported its manufacturing gauge fell to 55.5 in July from 56.2 in June, but that came in better than economists had expected the index. The consensus estimate from Reuters was 54.0. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

Construction spending rose 0.1 percent in June. The May reading was revised sharply lower to a 1 percent drop from the initial estimate of a 0.2 percent decline.



Glad to see it's all good news cause it could have been worse news? the way, exactly what is the nomical dollar value of a .1% gain in construction spending?

wiskeyrunner's picture

ISM slowest of 2010 market loves this. Listen to the markets. Make free money buy any and all dips till November. We will make new highs.

wiskeyrunner's picture

Yes sir we are going much higher. 11500-12000  on the Dow by November no sweat.

bruiserND's picture

When Tyler and the ZH hit monkeys inevitably turn bullish is the time to sell.

As long as they keep dismissing the rally as a GS conspiracy theory hold on tight.

WiskeyRunner is a smart guy.

wiskeyrunner's picture

This is so easy a cave man can do it......step right up and get your free money, buy long make free money till November. Just buy and wait for the new 52 week high.

Rogerwilco's picture

Six months into a "recovery" and the ISM "falls less than expected", GDP growth is flat line, and mortgage rates are at historic lows.

The markets rally.


PeterSchump's picture

How was everyone's cardinal climax yesterday?

ReallySparky's picture

I am disappointed that it has been a non-event.  I suppose many people are very embarrassed about the fact that nothing happened.  I had thought the market would crash.  However with all the intervention, then I thought that something would have to pop out somewhere else.  Bunch of hoopla over nothing.  A total nothing burger.

firstdivision's picture

1130 will be quite an interesting point IMO.  Should be there in the next 24 to 30 hours.

wiskeyrunner's picture

Turn off the news rookies just listen to what the market is saying, price action is all the matters. Market is not worried right now about economic data, why? Because it's all rigged to the upside till the election. Trust me we will bust thru the April highs by November.


Hold your nose and get long, make this free money right now, while the getting is good.

Dburn's picture

Good attitude WR


Don't fight the tape and get on the house side of the big Con. Bernanke is going to fight like Hell to keep Dems in control becuase 2012 could easily mark the end of his career if he doesn't. The Con is on. Get the inverse of SDS and DXD or buy puts on them. Unload Nov the day before the election. Then capital will be plentiful for an extended capitulation rally. A new Oxxymoron that fits the last ditch fight to stay in control.

wiskeyrunner's picture

That big head & shoulder top on the daily US indexes, has now formed an inverse head & shoulder pattern. We just broke the neck line and will be heading much higher. Pull up a daily line chart of the SP 500 cash.

Mojo's picture

Market Capitulation Days = Buy the Dip

Borat's picture

Tyler, maybe you should consider an analysis of Bovespa index as a leading indicator for this rally. I've been tracking it and there was a serious decouple a couple of weeks ago. Todays rally is not been followed by bovespa. Would it be the new EUR/JPY?

Eric Cartman's picture

Best and brightest!

PatsPal's picture

Uncle. I'm done shorting the market. I gave up on this. Only a fool would listen to the news or zerohedge and go short. You can't fight the Fed. My white flag is flying and I'm joining the bullish party. Sure, we all know the truth but what is truth? It is what the government tells you it is. Taylor, Mish and Denniger may be all correct in philosophy and theory but they sure as hell have been wrong in regards to the markets. So, listen to them and go broke or join the party? Your choice. No body seems to want to stop the corruption anyhow, so might as well be corrupt along with them.

Eric Cartman's picture

Keep a lookout for the potential head and shoulders move to the downside. 

Dburn's picture

ZH isn't a trading service. Your right to go long but don't blame ZH for uncovering the ugly facts. As they say "No matter what accounting system you’re on, eventually you have to meet Jesus"

When that happens you don't want to be long and watch your capital get wiped out.

This place is incredibly refreshing as they seem to be able to keep political bias to a minimum while reporting facts without the stenographer approach of "he says and she says" . The facts accompanied by informed analysis by the various contributors are not only helpful for traders but it’s a canary in a coal mine for people with small businesses who think the worst is past and make Cap-ex expenditures only to find there is no business to support it, now or 12 months from now.

Go to Waxie Parness and pay $2900 a month if you want a trading service.

Watch CNBC for a cheerleading service. Don’t blame ZH for your trading losses.

Eric Cartman's picture

Have him run cnbc for a few days and he'll be sold on the idea to go long and stay long. Then when the market comes crashing, he'll come back here and bitch about it. Let him go buy and hold. lol.

merehuman's picture

There was a time when people were ashamed. There was a time when folks were honest for its own sake. As the market values rise the worth of humans lessens. I am disgusted by all of you willing to trade a dishonest market.

It says a lot about your morality and ethics. 

AccreditedEYE's picture

Not to pick on Merehuman, but has anybody else noticed today's market action is having a massive psychological impact on some of our fellow posters here on ZH? I bring this up simply to point it out... This market wears on everyone. However, some perspective is needed... what are we up with today's highs on the S&P YTD? close to 1%? 

Lux Fiat's picture

Sounds like a capitulation day of a different sort to me. 

I get the concept that as the USD gets trashed, stocks tend to rev as they may represent a "better" store of value - if the USD deteriorates faster than corporate revenue and earnings potential.

However, when the 30 yr yield is rising percentage wise as much as the SP-500 today, this round of QE 2 may result in stocks getting shot in the foot instead of soaring.

Stocks may very well roar into November, but I have to wonder if this is a last weak hand shake-out attempt.  Particularly when GS's sell side says buy the dips.

hellboy's picture

Does anyone still have the PDF to hand which was on ZH some weeks ago with Goldman's top trading ideas? Pretty much what TD put at the end of the article above, but the "official" Goldman pdf version... Thank you very much!


Eric Cartman's picture

Why on earth would you want that?

the grateful unemployed's picture

i still consider the problem from a traders perspective to be the double leveraged (pro) funds, where trading for the next day closes at 4 oclock the day before. In this Uber transparent market, transparent for them, thick as milk for the rest of us, they see which way the next days trade is going, and go against it. The psychology is even simpler, those who open a trade and get hammered, up or down, usually close out the position, once you on the right side of this coin flipping game its pretty easy. of course mondays are good because no one is going to put in a sell order friday afternoon, and then sit around all weekend waiting for war with Iran to happen. so its suckers bet, mostly with two sets of rules, and essentially using the same underlying stock equity futures.

Eric Cartman's picture

Dr. House! Holy crap. I've been trading for a few years now and recently I've been experiencing these flash like symptoms then I pass out on my trading platform and can't remember what I bought or sold. Last night I woke up and blood was coming out my butt... like I'd literally been fucked but all I did was trade stocks. What is wrong with me?

the grateful unemployed's picture

Just about every one of his patients has a sexually transmitted disease, or the possibility, i suggest you check your computer virus program, and double down.

carbonmutant's picture

I wonder if this can be scripted into TOS...


carbonmutant's picture

" Goldman predicts that those buying stocks following dramatic sell offs leads to abnormal profits."

Makes you wonder what they're planning...

scratch_and_sniff's picture

You cant polish a shite, and besides, by the time the average idiot goes through that system he'll need to buy his shoes back from the pawn shop, just to hang himself with the laces.