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H.R. 5618 - Extending Unemployment Benefits– A Bad Bill
The House passed H.R. 5618 on Friday along party lines. This bill would
extend unemployment benefits to November 2010. To see if your
congressperson voted for this bad legislation see this list.
I have two major objections to the bill. First is that this is not “pay
go” and second this is all about politics and an election.
The House bill was structured as an “emergency” spending bill. This
designation allows for it to be exempt from the pay go rules. I am one
of those who think that the biggest emergency the country faces is the
size of the budget deficit. This bill would add $34 billion to our debt
load. Here is how the CBO scored it.
If the Senate passes this bill it would extend benefits to the end of
November. Gee, that is a convenient time. Just a few weeks past the
critical bi-elections. This bill has little to do with structural
unemployment. It is about buying votes and trying to sustain political
control of Congress. Those that support/vote for it will say that they
are doing so to help the unemployed. Actually it is just more bad
legislation. This is about politics, not economics.
The Senate has gone on a ten-day holiday and will pick up the proposed
legislation when they return. The vote will be on party lines. As of
this weekend that means the White House has 57 of the 60 votes needed to
pass. Olympia Snowe (R. Ma.) has indicated she will support it.
Therefore they are two votes shy. If this deal clears the Senate and
becomes law it would mean that two Republican Senators had their arms
twisted, that or they had their political palms greased with some form
of side deal. Washington at its worst.
Does it matter that we are adding another $34b to our debt load when the
debt is already $14 trillion? Not really. This only increases our debt
by a ¼%. It is equivalent to about 20 days of interest. We are in so
deep at this point that $34b is a very small number. How is that
possible?
I think the outcome of this legislation is important in a number of
respects. It will influence markets and the economy.
-If passed, it will be a weight on the dollar. Outside of the US every
country is singing fiscal conservatism. We stand out in the opposite
camp. Passage of this bill will be reflected in the capitol markets.
-If enacted it will have some short-term beneficial impacts. It will
keep consumption going for a bit longer. More I-phones will be bought,
the number of defaults will be a bit less, there will be some monthly
data released that will hide some of the weakness.
-The President’s fiscal commission will release its results on December
1st. The day after the extension of benefits will expire and three weeks
after the election. There is no way this temporary extension will be
extended at that point. Either we hit a wall then or we hit a wall now.
The President and the legislative side of D.C. will not be able to avoid
the recommendations of the fiscal commission.
-If this bill is not passed it will accelerate the slowdown that now
seems to be coming at a frightening speed. Consider these two graphs of
the number of people who will be impacted. By the end of July the number
grows to 3.2mm. These are big numbers. This will show up on Wal-Mart’s
sales. It will show up everywhere. Consumption will drop. Landlords will
not get paid. Confidence will drop. Markets will drop. Federal and
State revenues will drop. Deficits will rise. Debt will rise. These
things will happen sooner versus later. H.R. 5618 just buys a few
months.
»
- advertisements -
What should a person do, that is at the 26th week, like me?
I work 8 hours a day looking for a job, networking, and staying up on the markets (I'm in the finance industry). I'm the sole provider for a family of 4. My wife can't work due to physical issues (and we don't take SS disability for that).
I wrote essays, research notes and a book on the coming debt crisis, 6 years before it happened (www.jamesgoulding.com). I saw it, so did the politicos. They didn't care. We know that now.
I'm on board with Tyler as far as "When does this stop? When do we bite the bullet?"
The answer is, we bite it as long as it doesn't affect you. Isn't that the bottom line? (pun intended).
Thanks,
Jim
The reason for this NEED.............
This guy nails it on the friggin head.I agree with him, 100%.
http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/barack-obama--the-great-jobs-killer-97758294.html
Because of the INCOMING SOCIALIST changes, people are afraid to do a damned thing(business).
Just read an article on Corporate America, holds tons of excess cash....................WHY?
Same damn reason......NO clue where O's policies are going to take them, or how much they have to save for NEW SHIT.
***Note the MOVING abroad.
Bruce, come on. You didn't just write that, did you? Opposing an extension of unemployment benefits is DISINGENUOUS fiscal conservatism.
If you REALLY think the deficit is the biggest emergency the country faces then call for an end to pointless and unwinnable wars. Argue for slashing the military budget in half, which would still leave us with the biggest military in the world. Argue for eliminating the indefensible tax loophole for H.F. manager fees. Argue for raising the top tax rate to 75% or higher, as it was following WWII, during the greatest period of economic expansion in U.S. history. Or, are you an unapologetic believer in thoroughly debunked trickle-down theory? Tackle the deficit by opening the gates on the massive piles of hidden treasure, not by taking a buck off an unemployed schmuck on the street or by raising ATM fees.
I said in this piece that if this was so important it shoud have been at the expense of something else. We are "there" with paygo folks. The pile of chips is smaller than two years ago. It gets smaller again each month. What choices will we make? They are all hard.
SS, medicaid/care, section 8, unemployment (as we know it) will all be cut by significant amounts. At the same time taxes will be raised. We have the basis for age warfare.
The anger in these comments blows me back. Thanks to all.
bk
cdskiller
I agree unemployment has to end sometime.
Eventually all those people will be dumped on welfare, if they aren't collecting now. The states will need to borrow money from the feds.
May as well start the process immediately.
The pain has to start sometime. It doesn't matter if it is next year ( Well maybe it does next year there may be no money for welfare before these people leave unemployment) or today.
Yes, I agree there is far too much waste. Between pork, foreign aid, and defense there is billions which could be recovered.
Ambrose Evans Pritchard
and a site I had almost forgotten about is worth a visit
http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/
We jsut passed a bill giving another $30 billion to Afghan war, if your analysis on UI is right, and I tend to think it is, does it not apply to that $30 billion also...do you have consistent criticism of military spending or is it just social programs that catch your critical eye?
Updated DOW chart:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
OT
a good post by Pettis yesterday
What do banking crises have to do with consumption?Jul 4th, 2010
"
Who will clean up the mess?
Thats the push for austerity-balance the fiscal budget just in time to bailout WallStreet in the next crisis...
The system is corrupt...I won't support it anymore.
Passage of this bill will be reflected in the capitol markets.
Is the pun (capitol) intended?
"The President and the legislative side of D.C. will not be able to avoid the recommendations of the fiscal commission."
Ha, ha, ha! As for Congress, it depends on the November election results.... and on which "clear mandate from the voters" they be pimping. OBummer is already pot committed. The FED will do whatever they want. Turbo Timmay will follow orders.
I have a friend who just got a new job (making 50% of his old salary) and also taking him off his extended UE. But he lives in a house 3 times the size of mine and has 4 big screen TVs. So don't give me this garbage about all people suffering when they lose their extended benes. People should just batten down when the going gets rough and not make those less fortunate pay for their largesse.
For the heartless, I won't feel one drop of remorse when an unemployed person breaks into your McMansion and robs you at gun point. Or, maybe a jobless leach will rob your daughter at college.
I really hope a majority of you "good life entitleds" get yours in the months coming. The true disgust is watching the sell out of people who are in a bad financial situations, while people who make millions a year get the bailouts. I hate calling some of you "countrymen", because you're not! - part of the reason I am pro-crash......because some people really need a taste of some hard reality!
$20 Billion will be a drop in the bucket compared to the $4 trillion they will use when the currency collapses. Then what will you say, we need to cut SS?
Yeah johhnynaps... We need to cut SS too. Not because it's fun to pull the rug out from under old people, but because our corrupt, evil fucking government spent all the money and we don't have anymore.
People aren't heartless about this, johhny. They are simply realistic.
But I understand where you're coming from. So let's go ahead and vote in the bill. In fact, let's make the U.I. permanent, and raise it to 1000/wk. Then let's buy off everybodies mortgage, and double SS.
I love this attitude of, "Well, we're already screwed, so what's another 34 billion?" Just another nail in the coffin, I guess.
It might as well be another nail in the coffin. The disgust I express comes from the fact that there was runaway capitalism where the rich stripped the poor......and now they are really trying to bury them. Want to be realistic, you can't get blood from a stone, so tax the people that have banked the "blood" money (the crooks that bonused themselves with bailout money).
Please, can someone tell me how we are going to pay down $13.2 trillion dollars? And, can someone please tell me what is truly unrealistic about adding $34 billion to that amount? If you really believe there is a logical answer to paying down this $13.2 trillion debt in less than 1% increments, then by all means cut the U.I. benefits. Otherwise, WTF is the difference?
Making things more impossible for the "down and out" crowd that once PAID taxes and bailing out the "high life" corrupt crowd is by no means moral or ethical.
The real attitude is: "We've spent all this cash for the big boys' bonuses, (and we continue to do so): now the poor must suck it up."
No, let us cut some big contractor's budgets first. Then, and only then, cut off people who need it to eat. Boondoggles like Homeland Security, agriculture subsidies, and military spending all should be on the chopping block long before this.
When there are no more aircraft carriers being built, that will indicated that corruption has ended. Until then, the corruption will continue unabated and those who cannot afford lobbyists will bear the brunt of it.
of course it's politics but republicans would be foolish to think that 21% unemployed aren't enough to tip the congressional elections - so they will allow or order 3 of their ranks to vote for the bill...they would face political armageddon if they become responsible for killing the bill....
on the other hand, if anyone thinks that the congressional elections mean anything if he votes dem or rep then he is a certified fucktard....election only count when voting for someone other than republican or democrat....
Bruce, don't be a jerk.
' more iPhones will be bought' blahblah.
The recipients of these extensions will be buying food and paying rent and medecins. your economic arguments regarding debt all make perfect sense, but lets not be insensitive to those thrown on the scrapheap.
Why can we not extend unemployment and pay for it with, for a random example, a Wall St Bonus tax ?
When the riots start in earnest, and fascists start going door to door, you will suddenly realise that there are circumstances where the national debt is not the most important issue
Aside from the shameful beggar-thy-neighbor slant, it makes as much economic sense as abandoning stop signs and traffic lights. If there are five unemployed for every job, and these people end up on the street along with all the state cuts, the traditional economic stabilizers will have failed and it will be a "great" depression indeed. This money will flow directly back into the economy because they will have to spend 90% of it to pay rent and eat. Contrast this to military spending where 40% will end up in some Cayman account. Or propping up a bank that just sits on their "earned" wealth and buys tbills with the money that was loaned to them to make loans? Now I'm all for cuts, but how 'bout cutting some of those guns before the butter? This is hardly the most egregious spending of government money, and the least sociopathic.
I am a deficit hawk, but I see Congress has bailed out every industry except for the American people. I, as much as i hate intervention, believe they need to pass this bill. I do not believe the average unemployed person is living the high life of $1,200 a month, remember many get less than that. There are 6 people for every open position so it is if people are not looking for a job, they are just not available. Plus, which has already been said, the debt has done us in, it is over and another $34B doesn't matter. Hell, another $3-4T doesn't matter it just speeds up what we all know is going to happen. I suspect we have no more than 3-4 years tops before it collapses, but it could be as little as 6 months. Therefore, give people their benefits as it might help them prepare for the end. I wish we weren't here. I wish Ron Paul was in charge or taken seriously by his peers, but here we are. I am actually looking forward to the end... it will be spectacular.
Give people their benefits, it might prepare them for the end?
One, these are not their benefits. These are above and beyond their benefits.
Two, it will not help prepare them for the end. They will be no more prepared than they are now.
Effective January 1, 2010 the corporate income tax rate falls to 18% from 19% of 2009 corporate income tax rate. Yearly tax reductions will see the corporate income tax rate fall to 15% as of January 1, 2012. These corporate income tax reductions, says the Department of Finance Canada, will give Canadian corporations the lowest tax rate on new business investment in the Group of Seven (G7) by 2011 and the lowest statutory tax rate in the G7 by 2012.
The formatting sucks but the information is solid.
Corporate rates in U.S. = 35%
Find me one iota of evidence that any corporation, public or private actually pays 35% and you win the needledick in the haystack award. In 2008 Corporate receipts were 54 billion. In 2009, it was 130 Billion. This is out of a 4 trillion dollar budget and a estimated pretax of one trillion dollars. We all know it was much more than that because that's just what they earned here, that doesn't count the 60% of the earnings that are hidden overseas.
s why globalism has been vel'y vel'y good to them . I would take 14% if we could actually collect it on all profits. Hell there was 55 billion in payroll taxes that went uncollected 2 years ago and all the companies, according to the GAO were thriving. You 're have tea hallicinations if you think we have a real 35% tax rate here.
Corporate taxes in state of Ontario -10%
on Sun, 07/04/2010 - 11:48
#451917
Bruce, if you were one of those unemployed looking for work, I'm pretty sure you wouldn't be singing the same tune. Corporate tax rates in the US are a joke. Millions of people starving and the fat cats on Wall Street and elsewhere are pooing on this bill. What a travesty of justice and it's sad to see smart people like you buying into this twisted logic.
Leo..... millions starving because they don't get umemployment checks? Have you gone insane?
They can't afford junk food, they gonna die? Are there no food stamps?
Get a grip and check your medication schedule.
I know several people who have been unemployed for nearly 2 years now and are faced with losing their benefits. EVERY ONE of them has fully enjoyed their vacation. Now that they are about to lose their "incomes" suddenly they are making moves in a positive direction: moving to other states to live with relatives and make a fresh start, enrolling in school to change careers and receiving financial aid to help them. The fact of the matter is, when people don't have to work, they often choose not to. That simple. Sorry, I know we want to believe differently, but the research is there and the anecdotal evidence is there as well. Now, before everyone jumps all over me...I have 2 hard working adult children who are also in college. Both are employed and have to struggle with their employers to keep their hours down so they can go to school as well. In addition, one of them just found a better, higher paying job. The other is currently interviewing for not one, but two higher paying jobs, for which there are openings. No, they aren't what one would want if they had lost a 100K+ job, but they are certainly jobs that would keep ANYONE out of a tent and prevent starvation. Oh, and guess what? Our local unemployment rate is 16%. Oddly enough, though, everyone who WANTS to work, does. Go ahead and flag as junk, call me heartless and all that, but then take an honest look at the tendency of humans to choose the path of least resistance and you'll see what I mean.
Just reread what I wrote...I have to add that I see a huge issue with underemployment for sure. I totally agree the economy sucks. I'm just saying that at least for now there are jobs, however low paying they may be. I also believe there will soon come a day when that is no longer true. And when that day comes, ain't enough UI on the planet to get the job done. Let's take the pain now and just get it the hell over with. I'm so sick of waiting and I don't have enough room for more canned goods and bottled water!
I'm not going to flag you as junk, but I think the experience of older workers is different...if you are young, they are happy to hire you cheap, you are not "overqualified" but many 40-50 year olds are not allowed to down size...younger supervisors doing the hiring don't trust them, say to their face all the time you'll just leave when it gets better, and many employers are openly stating they will not hire the unemployed.
I have many former coworkers that we very good workers, good team members, very motivated types that got laid off we we had to shed 60 percent of our workforce (construction related) and despite these people doing more networking, more pavement pounding than anyone I ever seen, several of them are still without jobs after a year. The work church networks, go to Rotary club type things etc, do everything online they are supposed to do, talk to anyone they ever worked with. Their UI keeps them solvent but they are desperate for any job, especially one with medical benefits, they would take a job with less hourly pay than UI gives them to get medical coverage, let alone one that pays a bit more than UI. They get the overexpereinced thing, they get "you'll leave us when it gets better" thing, or just a general distrust without explanations despite being personable, open flexible, explaining their fate and willingness to do whatever. These folks can get cash work doing odd jobs, handy jobs, despite some being pretty old bodies for that type of work they are more than happy to do it, but they can't find jobs. The ones have found jobs have often been thru pre-existing connections, like an old frat buddy with an opening in another state etc, where people know them, but if they try to get a job where they have no connections, they get no where.
There other thing I have seen is there are lots of not so great workers still employed, still getting jobs, so that makes it look like people still unemployed must not be trying. But the movement of workers is not so frictionless. I see friends and their coworkers in jobs that I know my former coworkers would run circles around, they are more organized, harder-working etc, but my former co-workers will never get a chance to do those jobs, as they will hire someone in that industry, even if they are half the worker. So if you were in some industry, say med tech rather than construction, and that industry is still doing fairly well...the construction guy has no chance of getting a job over you, unless, of course, his frat buddy worked there, then he might give you a chance because he knows you.
Do you read Mish's blog? he is very anti-entitlements, long-term UI, etc...but he often posts things about how difficult it is to find a job. He posted how a local animal shelter advertised for the job of picking up dog poo at min wage and how people with masters degrees and people with 25 managerial experience were applying for the job. He does not pretend everyone on UI is a free-loader although he is constantly exposing all sorts of abuse of govt programs.
I don't know what the proper course is on UI, but I do know very professional, hard-working people that can't get a job in the industry they have experience in, can't move into another industry because there are so many people lined up that have direct applicable experience and can't move down to lower level job because age gives them away.
What you say is indeed heartening and illustrates precisely why it is necessary to discipline the reserve army of labor. Streng Arbeitszwang!
welfare and free medical
Congressman Hodes has a fine voting record. I'm looking forward to Senator Hodes.
I'll give Bruce that 99 weeks is enough, but the way the EUC works is those silly tiers, it's not just 99 weekers that are getting cut off, but all the other cutoff points too. Could we at least extend EUC so that everyone gets the same amount and the day of your unemployment doesn't determine whether you get 26, 46, or 99 weeks.
A lot of former low wage workers will actually be better off on welfare once their unemployment runs out (I know of a couple thats done the maths)- which means that the states might go bankrupt or need a bailout even sooner. Extending EUC might actually be more cost effective than the current welfare alternative !
Bruce,
I don't recall your position on the tarp, but I will cheerfully stand up and call every single congresscritter (are you listening Judd Gregg?) who voted for the tarp and not this bill, a lying, double dealing, slimeball who put the bankster's bonuses ahead of his/her constituent's groceries.
Would you like to take that to the tea party? I hope the NH Republican candidates do.
Frank
THERE'S ALREADY 40MILLION ON FOOD STAMPS.SECTION 8 HOUSING, S.S.,AND WHO KNOWS WHAT THERE CALLING WELLFAIR. LETS NOT FORGET THE CHILD TAX CREDIT.ITS ALL THE SAME.JUST THE NAME IS CHANGED.WE WILL MOVE ONE TO THE OTHER.
Has the American Dream Become Our Nightmare? http://www.alternet.org/economy/147384/has_the_american_dream_become_our...
I see it passing, as much as I hate the idea of it I'm sure there will be greased palms when the time comes.
It's just nauseating to see politicians continue to do these underhanded things in order to perpetuate their existance. They've already heard from me and it clearly makes no difference.
The real question is where the money is going to come from? And further, where do you draw the line? Obviously the line drawn now is a moving target. I sympathize with those who cannot find work, but how many are milking it for all it's worth under the belief that it only hurts the government? At some point you have to shut off the spigot.
Shut the off the spigot. Why? Is there a chance that extending unemployment benefits could hamper some of our military plans? Would that have an impact on the war in Iraq, the war in Afganistan, the potential war in Iran, or a possible war with Venezuela? Our need to contain China and Russia?
make no mistake this bill will pass by mid July meanwhile the big news is that BP is showing signs of financial trouble so it's a good thing President Obama got that $20B.
Does anyone know when the first of the four payments spread over four years is due?
Americans cannot be ripped from the teat of public monies [read: welfare] too hastily lest they discover this once great land is now a decrepit, morally and fiscally bankrupt wasteland that is in no way EVER going to resemble its former exaggerated self. Incredibly, many think this bank speculation-induced meltdown is only a speedbump on the road to ever-increasing home values and an eternal bull market.
On this Fourth of July, the MSM is desperately harkening back to the memory our illustrious forefathers while the History Channel tries in vain to convince us that we, as a nation, can still muster the inner fortitude to recreate our own "Great Leap Forward" following the Great Depression entering into WWII.
Of course it's bullshit - all of it - as this effete, apathetic and generally ignorant nation devolves into a nation of Gimme Gimmes and Lawmakers/Regulators. What happens when the facade of an "American Dream" is finally stripped bare for all to see? My guess is a lot of people start swallowing their own rockets. As the hope for the realization of that dream fades into the horizon, I think the American people will prove themselves to be nutless weasels who will lay down for anyone who purports to know what's best for them.
That pretty much describes the feeling at my family reunion today. I heard, "It's going to be OK" about 100 times. And I said, "Yeah, right," about 100 times.
Truly, at a cookout at our house, most people tried to ignore me as I was trying to discuss the US financial debacle. One neighbor actually just started laughing intimating that all will be well. Pissed me off. I find myself actually wanting the "end" to come so I can see the faces of these fools when they want my water, seed, and ammo.
+1
Yeah nobody listens. They have all bought into the "recession are normal cycles" and we do this every few years don't we?
No. The swings are more drastic and devastating because of Federal Reserve intervention and increased borrowing to attempt another do over with the same result. More kleptocracy, more money needing to be printed and increasingly exploding debt. Nothing cures this but the greatest depression.
We need a balance between fiscal responsibility and social responsibility.
How about we start with a little personal responsibility?
blastpheme! that ... might ... hurt ... the ... entitled ... feelings
(+100)
Folks, if we don't pass this government-backed bailout, the recovery will falter.
Either you get the gist of the above comment, or you don't; it's either obvious or oblivious.
You are being sarcastic, right?
Rhetorical statement! Bailout Inc is the recovery.
Which recovery exactly are you referring to? The one with record commercial defaults, or the one which features record number of consumer bankruptcies? Or perhaps it's the one where new home sales have plunged to the lowest number on record, despite mortgages at 41 year lows. I just want to make sure we're talking about the same "recovery".
Spending $32BN we have to borrow from China, just to keep watering brown shoots which have been sprayed with Corexit 9500, seems like an exercise in futility, no matter how noble the intention.
The pain is coming now, or in 6 months, and with another 32BN, we just add a little more onto future pain.
The bottom line is we don't have it. We didn't have it when we gave it to the banks, and we sure as heck don't have it now. Two wrongs don't make a right, and everyone feeling entitled to pick through the dead man's pockets for loose change, is just an ugly sight, and testimony to the overriding short-sighted selfishness which drove us to this point to begin with.
Screw you and yours as long as I get mine seems to be the American mantra.
I was against the bank bailouts, and I'm against prolonging the pain of the dying at the expense of the living.
But I guess it doesn't matter, we'll all be dying soon enough, and then you'll realize there's no big daddy in the sky who always has money to hand out, even if he has to sell a kidney to keep the kiddies in Xboxes. Thats when the scat will truly hit the rotary blades, as the mice who kept pushing the lever for more sugar water suddenly ask "WHY RUM GONE?"
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/commercial-defaults-hit-record-high-for-both-investors-and-banks-2010-06-02
Recovery? Did a recovery start while I was sleeping?