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Hugh Hendry: "If There Was A Way To Short Obama, I Would"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In his traditionally curt and to the point way, Hugh Hendry proclaims his "love" for the president, in this rare profile piece on the Scottish fund manager by the NYT. While none of his opinions will come as a surprise to Zero Hedge regulars ("The euro? It’s finished, Mr. Hendry proclaims.  China? Headed for a fall."), we do recommend the article to those still unfamiliar with one of the truly iconoclastic fund manager still left in the open. While Hendry does not run a fund nearly as large as some behemoths out there (his Ecletica is less than $1 billion, John Paulson is $30), it does afford him a nimbleness that JP (whose recent rumored liquidations in the gold market are destined to create feedback loops that further accelerate liquidations) or, much more blatantly, Pimco (with its $1 trillion + in Treasuries, Corporates, Sovereigns and Mortgages) which is the market in all its verticals, can only dream about. It also affords him the opportunity to say what is on his mind, and on those of many others, who however dread the political consequences for being a little too honest. It is this forthrightness and honesty that has reserved Hendry a sterling place within the Zero Hedge community, his candor regularly scoring posts receiving well over 20k reads (and at 60k hits, his "I recommend you panic" is among the Top 20 most popular Zero Hedge posts of all time).

Some snippets from Julia Werdigier's profile of Hendry:

Mr. Hendry runs the successful hedge fund firm Eclectica Asset Management. It is an old-school macroeconomic fund company with a big-think, globe-straddling style more akin to the Quantum Fund, of George Soros fame, than to the high-tech razzle-dazzle of Wall Street’s math-loving quant analysts.

“Hugh is an anachronism,” said Steven Drobny, a founder of Drobny Global Advisors. “He reminds one of the original hedge fund managers from the ’70s and ’80s.”

At 41, Mr. Hendry is also emerging from the normally secretive world of hedge funds to captivate fans and foes with a surprising level of candor.

And speaking of "I recommend you panic" which is must watch for everyone...

Last May, on British television, he verbally sparred with Jeffrey D. Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia and perhaps the best-known economist writing on developmental issues.

Another Hendry spectacle was his undressing of the naked Joseph Stiglitz emperor (full clip here):

Before that, he took on Joseph E. Stiglitz, the Nobel laureate, about the future of the euro. “Hello, can I tell you about the real world?” Mr. Hendry interjected at one point. It was a huge hit on YouTube.

By all accounts, Eclectica is not your typical 2 and 20 FoF-leeching dream corpse. Unlike most places, here you will likely know if you are en route to getting blown up well before the PMs shut down the place, and suspend redemptions, as was the case for 99% of all US hedge funds in late 2008:

Mr. Hendry has made — and sometimes lost — money for his investors. Eclectica’s flagship fund, the Eclectica Fund, is up about 13 percent this year, besting by far the average 1.3 percent loss among similar funds.

But returns have been erratic — “too much sex, drugs and rock ’n’ roll” for some investors, he concedes. In 2008, the Eclectica Fund was up 50 percent one month and down 15 percent another. Mr. Hendry plans to change that.

The firm bet correctly that the financial troubles plaguing Greece would eventually ripple through to the market for German bonds, considered the European equivalent of ultra-safe United States Treasury securities. But the firm lost money betting on European sovereign debt in the first quarter of last year.

And just like subprime was John Paulson's ticket to riches (with a little now settled help from Goldman Sachs), so China has all the makings of pushing Eclectica from a modest fund by modern zero cost of money standards, to the next big thing should Hendry be proven right (which he will be)... within a reasonable time frame:

His latest obsession is China. He likens the country to Starbucks: good at growing quickly but not so good at creating wealth.

“The idea is that things would happen today that are commonly thought of as impossible, most notably a significant reversal of China,” Mr. Hendry said.

Maps cover the walls of his office. On one, blue magnetic pins plot his recent trip through China. He filmed himself there in front of huge, empty office buildings and giant new bridges in the middle of nowhere — signs, he said, of a credit bubble.

Along with his fund co-manager Espen Baardsen, a former goalie for the Tottenham Hotspur soccer team, Mr. Hendry is devising ways to bet on a spectacular deterioration of China’s economy. He declined to divulge any details.

As for Hugh Hendry's book club, those who wish to follow in his footsteps, here is the recommended reading:

The inspiration for his investment approach comes from an unlikely source: “The Gap in the Curtain,” a 1932 novel by John Buchan that is borderline science fiction. The plot centers on five people who are chosen by a scientist to take part in an experiment that will let them glimpse one year into the future. Two see their own obituaries in one year’s time.

We certainly wish Mr. Hendry all the best, as his post-activist ways inspire a certain jouissance within his fans that none of the other deeply institutionalized hedge fund managers can recreate. And obviously we are excited by his eagerness to participate in open media discourse of his views: should a domestic TV station be able to tap into his raw id and spark highly-intellectual round table debates, the long-forgotten art of watching TV for intelligent content (and certainly commercial free) may actually one day come back to the US.

 

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Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:14 | 477690 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

#1 NON-douchebag: Hugh Hendry

worth watching again:  

http://www.youtube.com:80/watch?v=H0a_FA_J6Sw

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:15 | 477704 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

"Fair enough..."

Brilliant piece!

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:25 | 477973 Moneygrove
Moneygrove's picture

Did G.W find the WMD`s yet ?

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:29 | 477981 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

He went as far as the Tomb but forgot the secret handshake. 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 20:55 | 477917 covert
covert's picture

maybe its sorta is possible. the william hill wagering firm used to take bets on presidential candidates.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:26 | 478111 Ragnar D
Ragnar D's picture

There's also Intrade.

Right now it has contracts for (R)s taking the House and Senate, Harry and Babs keeping their seats, Blago being found guilty, unemployment rates, Dow above/below various values, etc.

 

It's not as big as the "real" markets so you might not be able to move that much size, but it's surprising how much predictive power such a small market still has.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:12 | 477694 Bigdaddydvo
Bigdaddydvo's picture

Mancrush confirmed.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:23 | 477717 Monkey Craig
Monkey Craig's picture

dvo - is that Devon Dudley of ecw fame? if not, just ignore

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 02:42 | 478315 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

I see he inspires in you a certain jouissance.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:13 | 477699 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

I'm sure Paulson beat him to it.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:19 | 477710 chrisd
chrisd's picture

P-squared was the real brains behind that operation, as evidenced by recent return profiles.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 22:43 | 478072 bonddude
bonddude's picture

Paulson is thirsty for some aqua con gasse, Pellegrini.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:46 | 477702 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Hugh is a badass, I can not put it any other way.

Here is another badass, Max Keiser, on Jones, today:

http://www.youtube.com/user/fairinfowar#p/c/AF87D10C5FB237F6/15/oGDzVn4M1fw

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 20:37 | 477893 Muir
Muir's picture

No doubt.

"Maps cover the walls of his office. On one, blue magnetic pins plot his recent trip through China. He filmed himself there in front of huge, empty office buildings and giant new bridges in the middle of nowhere — signs, he said, of a credit bubble."

 

 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 20:42 | 477899 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Muir, you triggered my memory.

'Wait a second....that video of China...that guy...that guy was Hugh!'

I saw this last year, and did not realize it was the man, Hugh Hendry!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ektMQGbW3wk

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:24 | 477968 Muir
Muir's picture

Yeap.

Nice clip.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 22:10 | 478036 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

good one.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:02 | 478085 thesapein
thesapein's picture

me too, but thought no way same guy. awesome for the throwback.

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 00:01 | 478153 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Muir can you please get rid of that animated avatar. Animated gifs went out in the 80's and animated avatars soon followed. And my complaint does not have anything to do with any sexist/gender issues - just aesthetics . Are those your tits? I've seen some man tits in my time but ... wow!

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 02:09 | 478297 thesapein
thesapein's picture

oh, and like yours is sooo original. is that your real face?

(I'm just playing, and really wanted to say to beware the bate 'cuz it's a trap!)

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 03:03 | 478318 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

May I suggest as a compromise between you and Muir that he display only one bouncing breast, covering up the other?

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 08:24 | 478433 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Please tell me you are a woman.  Because I have serious trust issues with any man who wants tits to go away.  Especially ones as nice as those.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:18 | 477708 kaiten
kaiten's picture

I would short Uncle Ben and his predecessor Il Maestro. 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:25 | 477721 winks
winks's picture

Don't fight the tape and don't fight the Fed or you won't be long for the investment world.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:33 | 477735 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Please change your user name to "Useless Cliches"

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 10:13 | 478590 Inspector Asset
Inspector Asset's picture

How about

"The Fed is our Friend"

Very fitting seeing how the new regs will allow for an agency, housed inside the fed, to protect you and your household from preditory practices of banks.

"
"THe Fed is your Friend"

I think it could work for them, build up some good will and regain some trust.,

After all it will be a rocky road and it is good to know PIMCO will be selling insurance for a market collappse. Very indicative indeed.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:18 | 478101 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Investment world? What world are you living in? There are only trades.

The tape is a tapeworm, parasitic by nature, that will consume those that feed on it unless they know how to short it. 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:36 | 477810 lookma
lookma's picture

Yet HH is long BB, aka long the mass of dollars BB has and will create.

 

 

 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:22 | 477713 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

I'd be happy with kicking the liar out of office.  Profiting off of stupid people seems so Goldman Sachs-ish.

 

 

 

 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:22 | 477715 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

TODAY WAS LOWEST PUT VOLUME SINCE 07

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:36 | 477741 anony
anony's picture

It's the  third week of July, one day after expiry, and typically the highest vacation week of the year, the humidity in major metros is 110%, the temperatures are in global warming red zones, the air is thick with pollution, and consumers confidence is in the crapper. 

I'm probably one of the only traders who bought and sold some today. And half-heartedly at that.

A month from now, this week won't even be shown on the charts because it is a nothing week, full to the limit with meaninglessness.

 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:00 | 477925 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

yes... which is why it is 85% below last year, in which data was so exciting...

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:00 | 477926 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

yes... which is why it is 85% below last year, in which data was so exciting...

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:46 | 477751 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

S&P 500 index option volume is very light, with about 429,000 contracts on the tape during the session, according to Trade Alert. Index futures are higher on the day with S&P futures near 1,068 and the CBOE Volatility index at 25.66, down 2.25 percent. In SPX options, the most active contract is the downside September 700 put, with 25,000 bought for $1.15 per contract this afternoon as futures traded near 1,062, said Trade Alert president Henry Schartz. These puts are about 34 percent out-of-the-money, and the premium outlay of $2.875 million may hedge up to $2.67 billion notional value, he added. The SPX rose 0.60 percent to 1,071.25. Reuters Messaging: doris.frankel.reuters.com@reuters.net

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:14 | 477782 MrTrader
MrTrader's picture

CB,

you should ask Nassim Taleb and Mark Spitznagel of Universa Investments L.P. ( http://www.universa.net/ ) why they are buying these deep OTM puts....last time they did it was 6th of May this year - 20 minutes before the flash crash. Anyway, the trade didn´t work out - I guess it doesn´t make sense with ZIRP in place, isn´t it ?

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:23 | 477798 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Are we sure its them ?

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:23 | 477799 n2dark
n2dark's picture

also take a look at the vix aug $60 call - today's vol 57k w/ op int 6.5k

somebody bought a block of 38k this morning

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:28 | 477802 Lothar the Rott...
Lothar the Rottweiler's picture

Who are you people junking every single comment Cheeky makes lately?  Go somewhere else if you don't like certain people; there are other places to get your jollies that will have no effect in the end.  Sometimes this dawg just doesn't understand...

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 20:28 | 477871 Muir
Muir's picture

My guess, the "precious" crowd. He got a record junk(17) last time.

Which made me feel ok (yes, I'm weak) since a "flaming homosexual trapped in a woman's body" (her words) keeps junking me. As well as the pious guy who expressed being offended by my avatar.

Unlike me, I doubt very much, CB gives a crap.

 

 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 20:34 | 477886 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

You got that right. 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:43 | 478002 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

+inf

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:00 | 478083 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

getting junked means nothing, by now there are people here just to junk because this is an influential website.

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 08:29 | 478438 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 20:45 | 477905 Goldenballs
Goldenballs's picture

Lovely Avatar.Where is she now ............ ?

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:25 | 477970 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"My guess, the "precious" crowd"

Not all.  While sometimes I feel like a PM cheerleader, I still enjoy the depth of Cheeky's research - albeit much of it goes over my head.  Waaayyy over my head.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:01 | 477928 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Lothar, the price of popularity. 

Draws the Yahoo crowd, who apparently don't respect Cheeky or Bouncing Breasts. 

IMHO, thems are banning offenses. But what the heck do i know.

Instead of a paywall ZH should come up with some sort of test.....like if you find this offensive [insert muir's avatar], or Cheeky's top 10 comments, then ZH doesn't want you as a reader. 

Hard to believe i don't run this site, isn't it?

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:04 | 477934 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:46 | 477993 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Yep, even if along side is just about the same thing.  Pull those creds just like footballs Lizzy !!

And it's nice to hear the sound of your paws pup

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:54 | 478015 Lothar the Rott...
Lothar the Rottweiler's picture

I got junked.... I think that's my first time.  Oh, losing your ZH virginity... :-)

Interesting...  to say the least.

Hey junkers... prolly not gonna work out in your favor; just saying!

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:51 | 478142 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Lothar, it's not the ZH you left before your flooding. It's a new world of junking nasty turds. Glad to see you here.

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 00:15 | 478102 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Must be why I bought puts today.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:27 | 477727 anony
anony's picture

I'd bet he and Jim Rogers both own Harley Hog Hard tails, full leathers, tats, and chains for belts, take rides thru Shangdong, just for kicks and argue the entire time over China, yes China, no, quaffing a couple of Ting Taos, while getting full body massages from beauteous Euro-asian nudies in opium dens all over Canton.

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 09:45 | 478541 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Are you saying that's a bad thing? :)

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:35 | 477739 a_moran3
a_moran3's picture

"Whatchu talkin' about foo?  <a href="http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/yes-we-did">Yes we did</a>.  I mean, yes we did, we got James, Bosh and Wade all on the same team.   I don't care about this country, I just care about my corporate masters and mindless fluff."

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:38 | 477745 IE
IE's picture

What kind of a downstroke would one need to invest in the Eclectica Fund? 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:50 | 477829 Oquities
Oquities's picture

looks like 5% subscription fee, with 5,000 pund minimum investment, with 1.75% management fee.  he'd better earn it.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 18:47 | 477753 Mercury
Mercury's picture
"If There Was A Way To Short Obama, I Would"

Long US CDS?

Long guns?

Long soybean paste?

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:11 | 477779 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

perversely, long the $

your Obamaville is calling

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 20:30 | 477878 Muir
Muir's picture

"perversely, long the $"

agreed, perceptive.

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 09:47 | 478546 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Also agree...with inclusion...timing is everything!

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:34 | 477988 CPL
CPL's picture

Long Seeds.

Long Family

Long Friends

Long Community

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 22:28 | 478054 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

short windmills

short burritos

short msnbc

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:16 | 478098 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

short burritos?  what's up with that?

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:41 | 478132 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Personally I love Chipotle, BUT if I were shorting Obama I would bet against Amnesty in an illegalimmigration bill. It was a funny not PC joke that made me laugh when I thought of it. Sorry (not really).

 

*edited for spelling

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 00:37 | 478198 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

no sweat, I'm from Texas and get sensitive when people start talking down about Mexican food;-)

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 01:01 | 478233 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Hey I LOVE TEXAS! Was thinking about relocating there someday (especially if SHTF and you guys decide to succeed, I mean secede). :-)

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 01:44 | 478267 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Don't live there now, but I WILL be the first to go back if they secede.

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 10:41 | 478671 still kicking
still kicking's picture

Are you in Oklahoma now?  I'm a Texas boy but ended up here in OKC and man the mexican food sucks here.  I am an OK state fan though so I love the Mike Gundy avatar.

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 09:54 | 478554 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Love Mex food and have worked/lived in Texas 3 times.

Mish has a new column out...claims Tex budget shortfall/problems now only slightly less than Cali.

I would be second back to Texas if they opt out. Hook em Horns!

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:20 | 478104 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Long MSNBC and Rachel Maddow

Love windmills

Neutral on burritos

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:35 | 478122 Miles Kendig
Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:52 | 478144 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Another one bites the dust. I am more concerned about my stomach per burritae..

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:57 | 478147 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

The ratings for MSNBC are not favorable and wind turbines will only be profitable by Capping and Taxing us.

 

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 09:57 | 478558 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Mexicans don't eat frozen burritos nuked for a couple of minutes...unless they are starving. That shit isn't Mexican food!

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 15:59 | 479450 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Eh, MSNBC is the "Two Minutes Hate" for the Dems.

Long Rifles and Freedom:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lztc048mYU8

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:07 | 477775 nuinut
nuinut's picture

 

After everything he has already written on the topics of gold and the dollar, it is most impressive to read this:

 

Click Here: FOFOA: Gold: The Ultimate Wealth Consolidator

 

The material contained within relates directly to hidden life of the US$, what it was, what it is,  what it will become, and why.

FOFOA is fitting the final few pieces to the puzzle, and the big picture that is emerging is as much of a surprise to most as it will be obvious in hindsight.

This information demonstrates why almost everyone commenting at ZH, as intelligent as they may be, are working from a false premise concerning the nature of their numeraire, the dollar.

I include Hugh Hendry, as clever as he undoubtably is. A lot of people making the most fundamental of assumptions about the underpinnings of their trading. 

#60

 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:15 | 477783 Jake Green
Jake Green's picture

Long FOFOA

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:33 | 477806 lookma
lookma's picture

+.99999 fine

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 20:33 | 477884 Muir
Muir's picture

Let me be succinct to the "precious" crowd.

Bullshit.

 

 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:00 | 477927 Apostate
Apostate's picture

Call them "faggots," too. I hear that's a great way to win debates.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:51 | 477979 Muir
Muir's picture

I would not belittle someone for their sexual orientation.

Nor for their race, sex or Nationality.

Only for their stupidity.

edit: full disclosure, I own some of the precious (40 oz. of Phiharmonics delivered by USPS in 1999)  Which, of course, makes me stupid (Y2K scare) but lucky.

 

Lastly, to compare yourself with some oppressed group in an effort to escape personal responsibility for your own stupidity is shameful.

So there.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 22:04 | 478026 Apostate
Apostate's picture

I'm really curious to read some good arguments against gold. Just calling a thesis you disagree with "stupid" is insufficient.

I own no gold whatsoever, don't plan to, and have advised people who ask me about it to spend the money investing in themselves and their skills.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 22:10 | 478034 Arius
Arius's picture

"I own no gold whatsoever, don't plan to, and have advised people who ask me about it to spend the money investing in themselves and their skills."

i guess you assume everything will be just fine always....well...dahhh...it will not...

you better protect yourself...this is not about who is right and who is wrong is about survival...

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:49 | 478135 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Muir,  you did not read the article or you would not have commented as you did.

You would have been floored by the situation as laid out prior to the year 2000.

It's all coming into view just as seen that far back when gold was "cheap".

Try again, here is the link: Gold: The Ultimate Wealth Consolidator

Ask yourself why phenomenally low interest rates by the CBs is NOT working to provide the "liquidity" needed to keep the squirrel cage going 'round.  The answers are found in the article quoted and this paper from 1969:

The Role Of Monetary Gold Over The Next Ten Years

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 00:50 | 478215 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

muir, not sure if this was intended (I'm sure it was), but I read all your posts to hang out at your avatar, nice job.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:48 | 478007 CPL
CPL's picture

Naw, kick a person in their wallet is the easiest way to win a fight quick.

 

Now stop calling the twinks "faggots", because the Kykes, Mickey's, Wop's, Spic's, Yanks, Canucks and Ivan's will start getting pissed.  Namely because the Krauts, Chinks, Nips, Scots and Wogs will have something to say about the whole affair.

 

Don't even get me started withthe Broads.  With the way chicks raise crotch fruit today I'm not sure if the snow flakes could handle it all.

//s

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:30 | 478117 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Thanks for posting the link, nuinut.   I found this rather interesting:

If the US wants to protect its remaining dollar reserve viability, (by maintaining all foreign dollar reserve debt) it now must allow it to depreciate against gold to provide liquidity.

That being written in 1999 and gold has gone up ever since.  If the CBs want to keep providing "liquidity" to the system they will have to allow gold to appreciate against the dollar continuously.  That bodes well for gold pricing, and an even tighter noose around the necks of the CBs.  What a tangled web they have woven.

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 04:10 | 478331 nuinut
nuinut's picture

I found that passage very interesting too.

I have posted FOAs methodology for that statement here - #478320

May as well put it here too; this is important stuff.

 

Regarding Rockys quote, from his comment above, this FOA quote explains the mechanism further, and this is worth the time it takes to read, so please persevere:

The maintenance of a world fiat currency system requires a constant expansion of liquidity (more money) to keep it working. In the old days, when a borrower defaulted on a "gold loan" (that was what a dollar loan was back then) the entity that held that debt paper lost his buying power. Be it the bank or an individual, the loan security became worthless and was written off. The write-off was certain because no one could (or would) come up with the gold to pay off the loan. Eventually, the US did issue more "gold loans" in the form of the dollar ("a gold contract currency") than it had gold to honor the $35 contract. Just a plain old fraud of creating new money so someone of importance didn't have to fail (lose some of their wealth).

 

Today, all kinds of loan guarantees are used to back modern fiat dollar loans. If they default, someone (a national treasury) prints the money to buy the loan so no one loses anything. Usually, if the loan is guaranteed, the lending institution just lends more money to try and keep the business going. However, in real life, a fiat reserve system, just as in a gold money system, is always in a natural state of deflation as bad loans appear. So, in time, a paper money system always swells large enough to pass the point that it can create more liquidity (money).

 

 

That's what happened with the dollar reserve world. Every US treasury obligation held as a Central Bank reserve was used to create its maximum amount of liquidity. Sometime in the 80s or so they had to start borrowing against gold as debt defaults were destroying wealth faster than the dollar system could supply replacements.

 

 We all worry so much about CBs lending gold reserves, my friend, every other reserve they hold is in the form of lent assets! I won't find any crisp, unlent dollar bills in any of their reserve hoards. The gold represented the last asset for the expansion of the world money supply. It's lent because they can fractionalise it just like a fiat currency. One ounce sold creates only one ounce of liquidity. One ounce lent, can create 90 ounces of paper gold and the dollar liquidity that provides. When they do actually sell it, most of it goes to other CBs. A "fact" supported by the WGC that no one wants to factor, because it destroys their argument about the CBs supplying physical to fill the deficit. Check it out, 300 tones or so over ten years is the net out reduction of gold reserves.

 

All of this bears out why this entire "new gold market" is SO important to the present dollar / IMF system. It's entirely a paper gold arena that really trades CB vault gold "as guarantees". Crash this Arena and the dollar is history as we know it.

 Paper gold has been the mechanism providing liquidity to the $IMF Bretton Woods regime since sometime in the '80s. Gold must continue to appreciate in order for this liquidity to be maintained, or it's game over.

As I said above, this undermines most economic analysis, does it not?

The dollar is not what it seems. The FOFOA post explains this, and more, far more extensively, for those who find it interesting. For everyone else, it's bullshit.

 

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 10:00 | 478566 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Almost All In...Should have picked it for a screen name!...Hindsight, always 20/20

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:22 | 477794 Misean
Misean's picture

If CNBS had him on the air in studio, would the news readers explode or implode?

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:33 | 477805 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Kraft should hire Hugh to pimp Kool-Aid.

'Do what I don't do: Drink the Kool-Aid'

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 04:20 | 478345 Circumspice
Circumspice's picture

I'd prefer Jim O'Neill: "I got a job at Goldman Sachs by drinking copious amounts of Kool-Aid, and so can you!"

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:34 | 477808 ED
ED's picture

Well, dropping your shorts and going long is simply out of the question

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:40 | 477818 Misean
Misean's picture

Depends on the woman.  Personally I'd give it a shot with the blonde presenter in the Stiglitz vid.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:31 | 477984 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

I think maybe he was looking at it from his perspective - notice his handle is "ED"? (as in Erectile Dysfunction).

It could have just been a statement of fact, like the most famous disclaimer of all "Previous performance is not an indicator of future returns".

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 19:36 | 477811 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

Thanks Tyler for bringing HH to my/our attention.  His live, unscripted comments re Sachs were truly something special.  There's nothing like spontaneity. 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 20:23 | 477863 SoCalBusted
SoCalBusted's picture

Vote out the Democrats

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 20:23 | 477865 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Vote out EVERYBODY.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 20:50 | 477910 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

+1!  It's an INCUMBENT problem.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:41 | 477997 SoCalBusted
SoCalBusted's picture

-(infinity) and FAIL

Obama was elected to the US Senate and served 3 years of his first 6 year term before becoming President.  What if the encumbent stayed in office?

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:42 | 477999 PC Load Letter
PC Load Letter's picture

Democrat or Republican.....they are the same $*it.  We cannot keep going back and forth between two parties accepting money from the same people and expect anything to change.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:55 | 478146 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Words spoken with wisdom. Furthermore, the whole left right is the illusion that keeps everyone from seeing the truth. We cannot solve any problems in this country in its current state of governing.

Start with abolishing lobbying and getting corporations out of robbing you blind. That means starting over. From scratch.

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 00:33 | 478193 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Well, to be fair, there are a few rare republicans who aren't also utterly corrupt hacks, such as congressman Ryan from Wisconsin and Ron Paul.  There really aren't *any* such democrats.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:17 | 477953 anarchitect
anarchitect's picture

+0.9984. Ron Paul can keep his job.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:33 | 477987 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture
The system is F***ed.  Burn it down.

 

Bruce Lee-Don't Sweat the Technique

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_kStJ-uvyA

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 00:03 | 478150 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

The only great thing he has done is getting interest in auditing the Fed.Ron Paul thinks everything should be deregulated and let the corporations go wild. I say that's already happening and they need to be stopped.

Ron Paul and his son are stuck in Ayn Rand ideology. Great read when you are 16--little to do with the real world. Until taxpayers don't have to pay for unfettered capitalism and the externalities they cause then fuck Ayn Rand and the horse she rode in on. Junk away. Idealism is so nice on paper.

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 00:36 | 478195 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Of course, if everything was deregulated, there wouldn't be any protecting certain banks or insurance companies as being "too big to fail", would there be? 

You can't look at only the aspects of a policy that you don't like.  I mean, we have an 8,000 page tax code as the result of decades of bribes buying special treatment is that really a laissez faire economy?

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 04:33 | 478352 Circumspice
Circumspice's picture

Ron Paul thinks everything should be deregulated and let the corporations go wild. I say that's already happening and they need to be stopped.

Government spending as a percent of GDP is around 40%. The Fed, UST, FDIC, OCC, OTS, FHA, etc. all regulate the banking industry. That is, we have a large government presence in the economy, both in a spending and regulatory capacity, yet we have "corporations running wild." How can corporations run wild if they're "fettered"? Simple, the corporations' protections and connections allow them to act with impunity. Unfettered markets impose legal liability and demands on capital adequacy and self-insurance that are far, far stricter than our laughable regulatory regime.

Until taxpayers don't have to pay for unfettered capitalism and the externalities they cause then fuck Ayn Rand and the horse she rode in on. Junk away. Idealism is so nice on paper.

By definition, taxpayers can't pay for unfettered capitalism. If they did it would be fettered, corporatism, or both.

I'm not a laissez-faire ideologue, but this argument makes no sense to me. You're free to argue that politicans coopt the free market ideology to reward cronies, but I don't see how Paul has done or enabled that (voted against Gramm-Leach-Bliley, TARP, ARRA, and so on).

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 20:51 | 477912 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

One way to short our "community organizer" is in invest in impeachment...

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 00:11 | 478162 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

You know what? Community organinzing is a great thing. It saves neighborhoods, helps children that are in harms way grow up in better environments to be productive citizens, and increases the prosperity of the areas. In Phoenix, community organizers have had great success with would be gang members, teenage pregnancy, and literacy. And that place is one tough nut to crack.

This is in no way defending Obama as I feel he has betrayed us with his ties to Dimon, et al, and really didn't know what he was getting into given the state of the country and entrusting Larry Summers, Geithner, and Bernanke with the economy. I am very disappointed in him.

But what the fuck is your problem with community organizers? And state your answers succinctly instead of junking. I'm sick of this shit.  

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 00:22 | 478177 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

They can organize the hell out of their communities as long as they don't use MY tax dollars to do it!!!

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 00:34 | 478194 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

You're ranting Howard. I'm the one being junked here not you.

Community organizers are a valuable asset at the street level. That does not mean they have the executive level experience to be the chief executive of the Federal government or the Commander in Chief of the armed forces. And electing one president is a fools errand. It's no wonder the Constitution is being discarded for the current political agenda.

 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:25 | 477972 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Required reading for ZH regulars

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/TER_1jnFFVI/AAAAAAAAN0Q/2aQevfr-ur0/s1600/themaestro.jpg

Alan Greenspan's comedic genius.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 21:31 | 477983 Arius
Arius's picture

WOW....This is simple amazing....Here is what Ferdi Lips wrote in the book's "Part IV: Gold Rush and the Gold War": "It is estimated that the 'paper gold' market in 1999 is many times larger than the actual physical market. Estimates range from a minimum of 90 to an excess of 100 paper-ounce contracts being written for every ounce of physical gold that changes hands.

In case you wonder who Ferdi Lips is....Mr. Lips was Managing Director for Rothchilds in Zyrich....

here comes the shocking thing....you know when he wrote this...hold your breath....in 2001....

anyone cares to guess what should be the number now....with all these printing going on and when 72 "analysts" say gold will go over 5.000 it slumps down day after day....i dont know....game over....thats for sure....

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 22:11 | 478033 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Agreed that the Short O trade will get crowded quickly as all spending becomes an emergency level event.  I am looking forward to hearing more from Hugh....

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:37 | 478125 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

hi Miles...agree more from Hugh is great.  Also agree that all spending will become emergency. Junk me too.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 22:13 | 478038 blomkvist
blomkvist's picture

FINALLY! I'M A MEMBER!

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:37 | 478129 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Of what?

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 00:03 | 478155 RealitiveMind
RealitiveMind's picture

Howard Beale fan club possibly, where do we sign up?

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 18:33 | 479882 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Lean out your window and say whatever yawanna... and you're in

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 22:43 | 478052 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Well, now, this is interesting...

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3060907/Black-parents-give-bir...

I have no explanation. Anyone? Bueller?

On a more serious note, it might be time to buy a few December crude calls...

http://www.debka.com/article/8918/

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 22:28 | 478056 ghostpirate
ghostpirate's picture

i love HH.  i think he is absolute greatness; however after the market has made its way I have a feeling we will look back and think of HH as nothing more than a novelty act.  we would basically need a dozen black swans to get an environment that somewhat resembles his predictions.  

 

i heart HH!

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:04 | 478089 Robert J Moran
Robert J Moran's picture

"I recommend you panic" is still one of my all time favorite t-shirt lines.  Not sure yet what the visual counterpoint should be but the line is pure zeitgeist.  The distillation of the times in the crucible of a single line! 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:16 | 478097 freshman
freshman's picture

Just short everything Obama took over - clean energy, health care, auto, banks, and the debt he takes on.

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 00:25 | 478186 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Wow.  Like taking candy from babies.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:28 | 478116 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Many of us view an internal consistency of policy/staff/and political class that exists beneath the facade of POTUS. It is both parties who are at fault. None of these problems started yesterday, they have all been building for a very long time. Now with information access avaible on a never before seen basis we are suddenly aware of those mechanisms of control and manipulation. They become harder to hide.

But nothing will ever change unless people address the root cause, TPTB.

 

 

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 23:33 | 478123 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

interesting to read the comments here on Hugh - sounds like he pissed off a lot of people with the "short Obama" comment..

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/19/hugh-hendry-hedge-fund-ma_n_651...

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 00:18 | 478171 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

THANKS A LOT.... just when I think that the world is finally waking up you have to go and link me to that?

In all seriousness though, my kids have a better understanding in reality than a great number of those posters.

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 00:55 | 478222 suteibu
suteibu's picture

I'm amazed.  I've don't think I've ever read anything quite like that.  Taken as a whole, it's one of the saddest things I can imagine.

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 01:10 | 478241 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Your right, quite a bummer.

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 04:51 | 478354 Circumspice
Circumspice's picture

As Gully Foyle pointed out above you, both parties are at fault and the problems have accumulated over decades. HuffPo types are like the majority of America, however, and prefer merely to cheer for Team Red or Team Blue. They refuse to see the political system as the source of their woes, or at least refuse to believe that the fix is anything more than voting for whom you'd rather have rob you, and then applauding with equal fervor as they do so.

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 12:53 | 478971 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Yea reminds me why I don't go to HuffPoo.  What a bunch of mindless Barney Frankensteins..."Rich Republican bad, rich Democrat good."

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 00:19 | 478173 dellbalboa
dellbalboa's picture

Hugh is a bad mofo, just as bad the keisermeister ;p.

 

 

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 03:01 | 478317 mikjall
mikjall's picture

"Another Hendry spectacle was his undressing of the naked Joseph Stiglitz emperor".

I like Hugh Hendry, but this was just another one of those "discussions" where Hendry didn't listen to Stiglitz, Stiglitz didn't listen to Hendry, and the "moderator" didn't listen to anyone, but interrupted everything that anyone was trying to say, so that the viewers couldn't listen to it either. Carles Casajuana would have been worth listening to as well as well, but we didn't get to hear his case either. How about reconvening these people and letting each of them have his full say, with full opportunity to respond to the others. And get a moderator who knows how to arrange that, instead of another aggressive motor-mouth.

 

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 08:14 | 478420 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

XAUUSD / XAUEUR / XAUAUD bearish warnings issued since July 1 continue . . .

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com/about

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 08:18 | 478421 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

duplicate  : (

Tue, 07/20/2010 - 12:38 | 478928 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Here is Hugh Hendry vs Joseph Stiglitz and Carles Casajuana from Feb `10:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4MAifsp-8E&feature=player_embedded

Stiglitz says the U.S. can print money it can't default "it is literally absurd."...

 

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