Hugh Hendry Interview With King World News: "If Inflation Is A Monetary Phenomenon, Hyperinflation Is A Political Phenomenon"

Tyler Durden's picture

In which we learn that that outspoken iconoclast has now taken on a $2 billion short position in Japanese credit, although presumably not cash-based as Ecclectica is well under that in AUM. For those who wish to recreate this position synthetically, we refer you to Dylan Grice's ATM swaption in the 10Y10Y forward which is the cheapest way to follow in Hugh's footsteps, and, ahem, may we remind you of Takefuji's recent bankruptcy...). His bet is in essence a gamble against the "China will never fail" bandwagon: "I am just intrigued as to the optionality, as to the profits that could be made, should that revert. And because it's deemed to be impossible, the trade is actually asymmetric. By golly if I am right, I can make a lot of money." Another topic is the already much discussed malinvestment in China, which was the centerpiece of the argument between Hendry and Faber from some time ago (link for clip). But back to what actual things Hugh is doing, he gives the following specifics: "I am shorting 10 year industrial corporate debt with 1% yield. Should this ricochet, which began in America, should the west be grappling with fears of recession, it goes to Asia, it goes to China, and I do not believe they have the vitality and consumption to pull the global economy out." And just in case there is any doubt how Hendry view the endgame, here it is:"At these immense levels of yen strength, Japan is bankrupt. And when it's bankrupt it has given up hope, and there is huge political legitimacy to then do quantitative easing, which leads to the debauchery of the system." In other words: the nuclear response of monetary debasement is certainly coming. We won't spoil what Hendry says on gold (suffice to add the following quote: "We will see a joint meltup in US Treasrys and gold") - for his insights on where the metal will go, for a shoutout to all Zero Hedge Hugh Hendry fans, and for much more, listen to the whole interview.

Full King World News interview.

And for those who may have missed it the first time around, here is arguably the most succinct and comprehensive interview with Hugh from earlier this year, titled "I would recommend you panic." Slowly, his advice is being taken by every central banker in the world.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
ZeroPower's picture

Hugh Hendry FTW

However, can't help but think he has an agenda as well - he is a fund manager after all.

dlmaniac's picture

A visit to KWN website listening to all the latest interviews has become a weekend treat to me. Hats off to Eric King.

MsCreant's picture

Me too. Or if I didn't get my fix, Monday morning after I get the kid off to school.

Bay of Pigs's picture

Dan Norcini getting a weekly gig over there. About time people started listening to him. The guy knows of what he speaks. 

Today the Gold Bitchez are vindicated once again. LMAO.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

 

 

 

 

***Great Info-  China***

standalone mp3 file

 

 

 

 

MsCreant's picture

And still being vindicated. On silver too. Even as the dollar melts. What a screwed up triumph. This moment was built into the weave, long ago, and yet it still has to be played out. Wish some of the players had the honesty to admit it. At least Gold is honest. 

 

WaterWings's picture

"Mom? What are you listening to?"

"Well, honey, let's call it a play-by-play of the end of the world as we know it."

This isn't a special interest topic. Hendry is a prince of truth.

MsCreant's picture

We don't talk much anymore, hope you see this. You typically come in late on threads. I still love you, ya know. Wish I could talk to you in RL. There are so many preps I come up short with and don't know how to turn with my resources. Won't get hubby to randomly sell the house. His biz is here, now. Anyway, know that when you post, I ALWAYS stop to read. Even when threads get stale and you post late. Glad to see you.

WaterWings's picture

If only I could thank you with the wit and warmth of CogDis. Merci.

Recently a close friend asked me why I'm not dating, going on vacations to Europe like before, grew a beard, why I get so many camping outlet catalogs in the mail, etc.

In effect I replied:

"They talk about the Lebron, crotches, and, when they can't think of anything better to say, the weather. I remember when I was like that. These days you'll here me talk about farm animals, the human suffering in Gaza, and when I can't think of anything better to say where I just found the cleanest, least expensive, non-corrosive 7.62 over the internet."

Ignorance is bliss. (and after reading this http://www.fredoneverything.net/Juarez.shtml I realize I shouldn't be so hard on myself for wondering what the hell is going on with people - drug free ain't easy - 'cept for booze)

I just last night explained to my father that because of shadow inventories, etc that housing prices have a long way to drop. Underwater? Join the club. Millions living in their home for over a year without making a payment and that he should consider setting a threshold for cash that when crossed the payments stop (he teaches part time and has a roommate they helps pay the difference).

"You need to realize that millions should already be renting if not living out of their cars. The Rich Dad, Poor Dad guy did! You need some transition cash. You need a reserve."

Forget that I told him to buy silver a long time ago. Well, he then told me he had already burned through it on repairs and that he still needs to buy a replacement furnace. "We're in a recovery." Wow. My own dad is at the cusp. Blames himself for lack of opportunities. FICO slavery and insanity ala our mutual friend mentioned above. I don't know everything but I can thank Tyler et al for the clarity and foundational confidence of what is inevitable.

MsCreant's picture

I know I sound like a mom with this, but you should date. :-)

It may need to be long distance, there are websites that have tried to get dating things going between Doomers (LATOC, don't know if that is off the ground or not, think I have seen others). But your interests, there should be women around (shooting, camping, gardening clubs?). Then you can share your world view. Granted, most won't handle it. But I hate to hear you have given up. At least stay open. You don't need a woman to be okay, but a partner sure is nice and makes the doing of it all meaningful.

Amazing short story. My cashier yesterday. I said the prices were shockingly high. He said "Yeah, it's cause of our monetary system." I said, "1913." He said, "The year they created the Fed." We both flipped out, laughing, exchanging little bits of what we knew. He told me to get silver, pre 1964 coins. How cute is that? Still a whole lot he does not know, does not get his brain around. He does not know about hyperinflation for instance. I hope you see my point. If I were a young, unmarried, woman moving through his line, well...:-)

WaterWings's picture

LOL - I'll never turn down sincere counsel. I posted way back, "As soon as this thing collapses I can get on with my life!"

Not very healthy.

Seeking active, non-hippy, non-holier-than-thou, non-teevee-watcher (cinema is okay), female that loves some Lysander Spooner, knows at least one Romance language, and will do anything (firearms, ASP batons) to protect herself and loved ones.

I guess my high expectations are somewhat of a personal barrier. I can't, don't want to, and will never settle back in and get comfortable with the status quo built on lies and mass murder. It's that one thing I have on my mind, that high-pitched ringing like when a television is on but the screen is black, and not everyone can tell - it doesn't stop. Always on my mind: what's next? 

I'd rather move back to Brazil and sell sugar cane juice and feijão-de-porco to tourists than do nothing - actually that sounds pretty nice. Maybe Chumba is down there already. I should do that before the worsening dollar requires my silver stash to be divided over multiple trips! Those TSA mm body scanners are GREAT for finding coin caches.

TSA Dick #1: "Lookee here."

TSA Dick #2: "More of these people each week. This is great!"

Expatriation...neh. My blood will remain in the Rocky Mountains. Plus I can't take my rifles. "You want me to be defenseless?" They'll have to come and take them.

http://www.amazon.com/Total-Resistance-H-Von-Dach/dp/0873640217/ref=pd_sim_b_6

Miles Kendig's picture

...  some things just are brotherman.  Good to see you

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ldj5tUfJLzM

Miles Kendig's picture

I were a young, unmarried, woman moving through his line, well...:-)  ...

I wouldn't make him do anything he didn't want too...

kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

you guys confuse me, but that is ok. i just bought a new hair brush. well i have been using a mason pearson hair brush my whole life, just haven't bought a new one for about 20 years. but they are the best brush a woman can buy, anyway i like you guys and especially the youtube vids that you include in your posts. i feel special, cause i don't know why, cause i like them and remember them and it feels like home.  ok night.

Turd Ferguson's picture

The money shot of the interview is this:

Hugh points out that multi-year bubbles tend to pop at the end of calendar decades.

1970s = commodities

1980s = Japan

1990s = Nasdaq

2000s = government bonds?

Ricky Bobby's picture

That got my attention as well. Nice observation that I have never heard before.

snowball777's picture

1970s: commodities

1980s: leverage

1990s: dot-bomb

2000s: GSEs and securitization

Harbourcity's picture

Wouldn't it be:

2000s = tech/internet bubble

2010s = fiat currency / government bonds

2020s = fossil fuels

2030s = nano / life extending technologies

 

Hard1's picture

my view

2000s = tech bubble

2010s = G10 Government Bonds

2020s = Worm population feeding on human remainings

2030s = Cockroach population feeding on worms

 

So enjoy your gold stash for the remainder of the decade

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You mean,

Ben Shalom Bernanke, Casino Gulog CEO.

Careless Whisper's picture

LVS was $150 three years ago. just sayin'.

NEM still strong; the only gold miner in the s&p 500. this looks like a takeover waiting to happen.

TIF breaks higher.

can HOT close above $54 or is that the place to short it?

ummm, i think im gonna order a new tiffany tie bar. yeah.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_c9KotcbaiBc/R8dCPkICu-I/AAAAAAAAB3I/0nUXAgT98C...

 

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I heard Lumberjack is in on the runway.

MsCreant's picture

Does the boy come with that tie bar (pun optional)?

MsCreant's picture

I'd love to know what you posted and took away. I know how you are on the gay issue. Don't hold it against you, hope you don't hold my openness against me. I think gay folks have a lot to contribute. They, by necessity, think outside the box. Many of them are brilliant as a result of this constant exercise that they must live daily. They have insight that you and I can't because we exist in a hetero dominant way of thinking and being. 

Spalding_Smailes's picture

I post something up top about china (mp3)and reposted it here so I deleted it.. sorry, no gay bashing at the time ...

But, a very unstable bunch..,nasty drug habits heroin ect, mental health issues,very high levels of disease,yikes ... who turned on the flash light. Another sign of our downfall as a nation.... We are almost at the end of the line, gulp.


akak's picture

If your inherent nature led you to being mocked, ridiculed, derided and dismissed by society at large, and attacked as "sinful" and "perverted" and "condemned to Hell" by a good chunk of them, you might be "unstable" and have mental health issues as well.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

inherent nature

 

Choice. Not shure if nature is a good word. If you choose to embrace nature over God well nature is not giving it's a o.k, that a boy.... Aids ect seem to flock to this "inherent nature". Or is this bad luck?

 

Many, many sins abound, look at the abortions over the last 50 years worldwide. This world is a train wreck ....

akak's picture

.

 

If you are not gay, then you are not qualified to declare that being so is merely a "choice", as opposed to being inherent to the individual.

Let me ask you: if being gay were just a "choice", then who in the HELL would choose it, given the inevitable attendant complications, difficulties and social stigma?

And since the large majority of AIDS sufferers and victims are, and have been, heterosexuals, it would seem that your God (presumably the capricious and vindictive Judeo-Christian war god, Yahweh) has thereby chosen to pour out more of his wrath on them rather than on gays.

Spalding_Smailes's picture
And since the large majority of AIDS sufferers and victims are, and have been, heterosexuals,

CDC statistics show that in 2007, 73% of persons living with a diagnosis of HIV infection were male adults or adolescents.

Just over half of men diagnosed with HIV in 2008 became infected through male-to-male sexual contact, around 30% of those diagnosed were infected through heterosexual contact, and 10.5% through injecting drug use.

Between 2005 and 2008, annual HIV diagnoses increased among men who have sex with men (MSM) and those who were exposed through heterosexual contact. Infections decreased among IDUs and children. Of the 182 HIV diagnoses among children in 2008, 141 were probably infected with HIV through mother-to-child transmission.

 

Let me ask you: if being gay were just a "choice", then who in the HELL would choose it

 

The same person that may choose to steal, sell out for money gain, sell dope, scum.

 

 


akak's picture

.

Your American-centric statistics prove nothing, as the VAST majority of AIDS sufferers worldwide are heterosexual, NOT homosexual. And if AIDS were really the scourge of your Judeo-Christian war god, Yahweh, upon the homosexuals, he seems to have managed to screw up and inflict it on a great many innocent victims, even within the USA.

 

Let me ask you: if being gay were just a "choice", then who in the HELL would choose it


The same person that may choose to steal, sell out for money gain, sell dope, scum.

 

Rarely have I encountered such a close-minded and ignorant viewpoint. 

What would possibly be the advantage of anyone CHOOSING to be gay, if you think it is really a choice?  The very suggestion is insulting.  You Bible-thumpers are really a hoot, I have to tell you.  I bet you deny geological and biological evolution as well. 

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Americas rapid decline into the dumbster of time really started to gain speed on the back of the liberal scum of the 60's. Look at the schools, the crap rolling of the tv, magazines, higher ed, free love, drugs, lies, the family model discarded, abortions, killings, all this fucking trash has gathered steam ... Man, and that really old book* spoke * to all these things, oh so long ago & how things would quicken. The army's gathering into the middle east, moral crisis, economic crisis,wars , wars rumors of wars.... now how did he do that....?

 

And the big bang gave us all this .... but yet the rest of the *Animals* just stopped evolving( I'm waiting for a IPO issued by a chimp, or build a CDO synthetic) .... Hmmmmm. We just happen to have the right amount of H2O, pefect balance, the oceans, everything, we just wound up in the right *spot* behind mars, man how lucky.

 

akak's picture

.

 

I can't and won't deny that the decline of the USA picked up steam in the 1960s and 1970s, but it was already most of a century in the making at that point.  However, I don't think that homosexuality was invented sometime during the Hippy Era either.  It was already rather an accepted fact in much of the ancient world.  What did change was the rampant hypocrisy and denial of it, and that I think was for the good.

If you believe that homosexuality is a "choice", then there should be vastly MORE of it in the more permissive and liberal USA of today than there was 50 or 80 years ago.  Extensive research shows that NOT to be the case, however ---- the number of men (and women!) who are homosexual, or who have had homosexual experiences at some point in their lives, has remained steady within the parameters of statistical uncertainty since the subject was first extensively researched in the USA in the 1940s.

fiftybagger's picture

Homosexuals, err gays, err whatever they want to be called at the moment, live in a world of lies.  Let's destroy a few of these liberal shibboleths.  First of all, G.R.I.D, gay related immune disorder, when it was discovered was quite accurately named.  Due to rabid sodomite lobbying they had to change the name, just like they "persuaded" the APA through force of arms to stop calling their buggery a disorder. 

It never was a disease, just as alcoholism is not a disease.  It is an extremely unhealthy lifestyle which results in premature death.  The life expectancy of "gays" is shockingly low and always has been.  I am about as likely to "catch" aids as you are to "catch" a drug addiction.  Hence the disparity in world wide "aids" statistics.  The people in Africa are starving to death.  Starving people tend to have weak immune systems no?

Homosexuals are not born that way, they engage in a destructive behavior by choice.  But it would be irresponsible to say they woke up one day and said I wanna be a sodomite.  Most, if not all, have been molested by another sodomite, usually while they were young.  Hence the tendency of them to be very much more attractive physically than the average.  They are driven by lust, an insatiable lust that is quite accurately described in the Bible when they tried to rape 2 angels:

 

1 And there came two angels to Sodom at even; and Lot sat in the gate of Sodom: and Lot seeing them rose up to meet them; and he bowed himself with his face toward the ground; 2 And he said, Behold now, my lords, turn in, I pray you, into your servant's house, and tarry all night, and wash your feet, and ye shall rise up early, and go on your ways. And they said, Nay; but we will abide in the street all night. 3 And he pressed upon them greatly; and they turned in unto him, and entered into his house; and he made them a feast, and did bake unleavened bread, and they did eat. 4 But before they lay down, the men of the city, even the men of Sodom, compassed the house round, both old and young, all the people from every quarter: 5 And they called unto Lot, and said unto him, Where are the men which came in to thee this night? bring them out unto us, that we may know them. 6 And Lot went out at the door unto them, and shut the door after him, 7 And said, I pray you, brethren, do not so wickedly. 8 Behold now, I have two daughters which have not known man; let me, I pray you, bring them out unto you, and do ye to them as is good in your eyes: only unto these men do nothing; for therefore came they under the shadow of my roof. 9 And they said, Stand back. And they said again, This one fellow came in to sojourn, and he will needs be a judge: now will we deal worse with thee, than with them. And they pressed sore upon the man, even Lot, and came near to break the door. 10 But the men put forth their hand, and pulled Lot into the house to them, and shut to the door. 11 And they smote the men that were at the door of the house with blindness, both small and great: so that they wearied themselves to find the door.

Genesis 19
King James Version

 

Insatiable lust to defile the pure, that is what was driving them then and it is still driving them today.  Kinsey "discovered" that 10% of the sexual perverts he was interviewing were "gay" or had those tendencies.  Somehow they managed to convince Americans that 1 in 10 of them were too.  A fantastic lie.  The real number is closer to 1 %.  But for the sake of argument, we will go with the larger number.  Look up the following numbers yourself and do the math.  Roughly half of all children molested are boys.  Of that number, roughly 98% are molested by men.  If "gays" are only 10% of the population, then they are 10 times more likely to be a child molester.  Simple math.  Now if you are going to argue that men who molest little boys are really heterosexual I cannot help you.

 

Nations that reject God are rejected by God.  Those who worship the creation more than the creator are "filled" with much evil:

18 For the wrath of God is revealed from heaven against all ungodliness and unrighteousness of men, who hold the truth in unrighteousness; 19 Because that which may be known of God is manifest in them; for God hath shewed it unto them. 20 For the invisible things of him from the creation of the world are clearly seen, being understood by the things that are made, even his eternal power and Godhead; so that they are without excuse: 21 Because that, when they knew God, they glorified him not as God, neither were thankful; but became vain in their imaginations, and their foolish heart was darkened. 22 Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools, 23 And changed the glory of the uncorruptible God into an image made like to corruptible man, and to birds, and fourfooted beasts, and creeping things.

24 Wherefore God also gave them up to uncleanness through the lusts of their own hearts, to dishonour their own bodies between themselves: 25 Who changed the truth of God into a lie, and worshipped and served the creature more than the Creator, who is blessed for ever. Amen.

26 For this cause God gave them up unto vile affections: for even their women did change the natural use into that which is against nature: 27 And likewise also the men, leaving the natural use of the woman, burned in their lust one toward another; men with men working that which is unseemly, and receiving in themselves that recompence of their error which was meet.

 

Romans 1
King James Version

The recompence of their error is often quite fitting as the "femme" spirit or the "dyke" spirits begin to possess and destroy their souls.  Jesus(God) did not just suffer and die for "regular" sinners like yours truly only, he also gave his life for sodomites as well.  I do not hate gays and neither does God.  We tell you the truth because we love you.  Just as Jesus can save and clean up the self righteous hypocrites of this world, he can also save and clean up any gays who call on him.  Won't you trust him today?  He gave his life to set you free of this terrible curse.


 

 

NrYC's picture

My invisible space daddy will kick your invisible space daddy's ass.

LeBalance's picture

Not to get into your gender preference issue here, but:

"Americas rapid decline into the dumbster of time really started to gain speed on the back of the liberal scum of the 60's."

Are you not remembering the spending on the Vietnam War, the resultant default on the Bretton Woods compact, and the commodities and oil shocks?  Just as a start?

Hephasteus's picture

Chiron in Aquarius describes the wounded community, the distrust of hope and retreat from ideals. However, it can also raise awareness of how our collective ideas imprison us in an icy world of abstraction. Chiron's last passage through Aquarius was January 1955 until March 1960. This was the suburban '50s in the U.S., a period of withdrawal from idealism. In his last address as president Dwight Eisenhower, the great general, warned America against the growing influence of the military-industrial complex. His words were prophetic, but the message has not be absorbed. Perhaps it will be this time.

Nope the 60's was a real wounding by the governmental authorities. Any time you are faced with damaging situation you have only the fight or flight domain to work with. You can fight it, you can run from it, or you can try to change it. So people in the 60's protested, dropped out, and attempted change. It was bloody, full of peace AND violence. It will be bloodier with more peace and more violence this time again. The idealism that power can police itself or is "purified" to contain only pure good motives is DEAD. What will change is going to change, what won't change will be discarded. Those who don't have the strength to keep fighting will drop out.

Peoples invisible god's with ALL power will pick fights and get hurt. Straw man arguements, terracotta armies, and invisible powers won't protect anyone. Everybodies hassle is right in front of them.

Miles Kendig's picture

You're the one holding the gun

MsCreant's picture

Insert huge grin here. You know my tastes, Miles. The boy would be used up like a Kleenex in a second. I like men. But Careless likes both AC and DC. So I must, really must, tease. I won't make the boy do anything he does not want to.

Atlanta coming together okay?

Miles Kendig's picture

MsCreant and the power of positive persuasion

DarkMath's picture

Robot,

Can you explain the rise in this stock? They lost $500,000,000 last year and sit on a lot of over valued Las Vegas Real Estate. Is it just me? Have you been to Las Vegas lately, it's a freakin ghost town.

Bear's picture

Agree ... I went to las a couple of weeks ago and I was the high roller at the MGM Grand crap tables ... with the same bets I used to be a penny ante player ... the $25 tables are now $10 and the $100 tables are now $25 and the high roller section is empty.

dark pools of soros's picture

casinos are opening up everywhere...  so less bother to go to the mainstays

Hype Alert's picture

and of course they get an upgrade today from KeyBanc Capital.  Upgraded to a Hold!  I guess they didn't want to look too stupid in this market.

drwells's picture

Can you explain why slot machine #13 has people lined up to play it while the others stand idle? Some moron decided it was "lucky" and there you go.

fiftybagger's picture

Thanks, I may short that trash

Bigger Dickus's picture

Erin Burnett is looking extra scrumptious today. yummy

thegr8whorebabylon's picture

so, apart from his billions in shorts, he's got a 'bit' of gold after it doubling, (for his fund), earlier in the decade?...because he likes to go against the trend...and his fear is that we expect profits in potentially debased currency?  So what are his 2 bil shorts gonna pay out in, bananas?