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Hurricanes Could Spread Gulf Oil Inland
AccuWeather.com's Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski points
out today that hurricanes may spread the Gulf oil inland:
While
the oil leak disaster in the Gulf of Mexico is bad enough, many people
have been wondering what could happen if a hurricane were to slam into
the region.
AccuWeather.com hurricane expert Joe Bastardi is concerned by
multiple threats from storms throughout the season in the Gulf of
Mexico.
[According to predictions for an active
hurricane season this year], much of the central and western Gulf
of Mexico could be one of several targets for potential multiple
tropical storm and/or hurricane landfalls this year.
Depending on the approach of a tropical storm or
hurricane, increasing winds and building, massive seas would first
halt containment operations.
Rough seas would dislodge or
destroy protective booms, rendering them useless as the storm draws
closer.
Next, as the storm rolls through, high winds on the right
flank of a hurricane making landfall would cause some oil to become
airborne in blowing spray. A storm surge could carry contaminants
inland beyond bays, marshes and beaches to well developed locations.
Even a glancing blow from a hurricane passing to the west of the oil
slick could be enough for winds and wave action to drive the goo
nearby onshore, or to more distant fishing and recreation areas,
perhaps in foreign waters.
During the age of sail, winds
occasionally blew ships hundreds of miles off course. The wind could
have the same effect on the oil slick.
Now, imagine several
storms during the season doing the same thing.
Hurricanes are powered by the heat released when moist air rises. As McClatchy notes,
it is possible that the oil might slow down the hurricane formation
process in the oil spill zone itself by reducing the evaporation of
seawater:
Oil wouldn't have an effect on the
track of the storm or the intensity, said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for
the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
He added, though, that a hurricane or tropical storm might have trouble forming in or near an oil slick.
"Oil
itself suppresses evaporation of the ocean's water," Feltgen said.
"Tropical cyclones require a good amount of that moisture for those
deep thunderstorms to develop, so it could slow down the genesis
process."
Masters said while there are different theories
on what happens when storms and oil mix, it's difficult to tell until
it happens.
"It's kind of an open question," he said. "We
don't know what would happen, but if they don't clean up the oil spill
by September, then we definitely could see some hurricane and oil spill
interaction.
In other words, it may be less likely that a hurricane could spill right in the spill zone; but hurricanes could easily form outside of the spill zone and then interact with oil as they moved towards shore.
Oil
is toxic
for humans, containing
many different compounds:
Oil contains a mixture
of chemicals. The main ingredients are various hydrocarbons, some of
which can cause cancer (eg. the PAHs or polycyclic aromatic
hydrocarbons); other hydrocarbons can cause skin and airway irritation.
There are also certain volatile hydrocarbons called VOCs (volatile
organic compounds) which can cause cancer and neurologic and
reproductive harm. Oil also contains traces of heavy metals such as
mercury, arsenic and lead.
The oil in the Gulf is also unrefined, unlike the stuff you pour into
your car. It also comes from the deepest oil well
ever drilled, and it is possible that the chemistry is different
at such great depths due to pressure, heat or other factors. So it is
hard to tell at this point whether it is more or less toxic than
standard, refined oil (Coast Guard chemists have tested the oil, but -
to date - no reports have been made public.)
In addition, highly toxic dispersants have been used to
try to break up the oil. See this
and this.
Not only are dispersants being released underwater,
but the air
force is also dropping dispersants on the slick from above.
The
official information for the dispersant reveals problems:
OSHA
requires companies to make Material Safety Data Sheets, or MSDSs,
available for any hazardous substances used in a workplace, and the ones
for these dispersants both contain versions of a disturbing statement.***
Both
data sheets include the warning "human health hazards: acute." The MSDS
for Corexit 9527A [the dispersant apparently being used in the Gulf]
states that "excessive exposure may cause central nervous system
effects, nausea, vomiting, anesthetic or narcotic effects," and
"repeated or excessive exposure to butoxyethanol [an active ingredient]
may cause injury to red blood cells (hemolysis), kidney or the liver."
It adds: "Prolonged and/or repeated exposure through inhalation or
extensive skin contact with EGBE [butoxyethanol] may result in damage to
the blood and kidneys."
The bottom line is that hurricanes
could very well spread the damage from the Gulf oil spill.
In
the best case scenario, the gusher will have been capped and some
cleanup commenced by the time the first hurricane hits the Gulf, the
hurricane will be small, and the effects minimal.
In the worst
case scenario, a major hurricane could spread toxic compounds inland
onto crops. It could also aerosolize and then spread toxic chemicals,
causing serious health problems for local residents - especially
children, the elderly and those already at risk.
For background on the Gulf oil spill, see this.
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Anybody catch Hayward's douchenozzle comment of the day?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1278279/Gulf-Mexico-oil-spill-BP-boss-Tony-Hayward-tries-downplay-disaster.html
Do you have to go to a special school to be so utterly tone-deaf? If so, was this guy sitting in the back. In a bicycle helmet. Licking the glass?
Will shipping in the gulf seize due to foul air? Bullish for alternate transport.
Will coastal residents have to move ? Bullish for adjoining unaffected states
The more i think about consequences the scarier it gets.
Will the coastal basin relieving itself of pressure begin a new round of earthquakes? This is a bullish time for fear. And i have difficulty remaining optimistic for the future of our children. I want to revolt after spending the bulk of my life aware of the relative illusionary material world we live in . I participated in the commerce of normal life for survival sake. Maya tho it be our collective phisical bodies are now under threat as other species die , we will follow them. No man is an island, and bees are only one of many factors needed for our species survival. Like all other creatures we need food and water we are despoiling in order to have more things we dont need.
I want to revolt! Where do i sign up? Save mankind , love somebody
ocean going vessels and power plants need 'clean' sea/river water to cool their engines/turbines. refinery output could be significantly reduced. every gulf coast mortgage is indisputably underwater now. after that first hurricane kills the drinking water supply in new orleans, what bank is going to loan you money to run your business or buy a home? are banks even going to be open?
no time left to revolt. barely enough to get gulf coast residents to safety before obama's nuclear sunshine tsunami of change and hope hits the coast.
oh, and check out stoneleigh's writings on deflation. gold, bitches, yes. but don't count on being able to sell any when you need to.
i am not chumbawumba. (always wanted to say that, pretty much joined just to do so)
i am chumbawumba's left nostril.
Hell of a way to bring Cuba to its knees... just destroy the Carribean. When the cruise lines go bust, they can dock their ships in NY harbor for the homeless... a redux of the British prison ships (The Jersey) during the AmRev. This is looking more like MadMax every bloody day.
Hell of a way to bring Cuba to its knees... just destroy the Carribean. When the cruise lines go bust, they can dock their ships in NY harbor for the homeless... a redux of the British prison ships (The Jersey) during the AmRev. This is looking more like MadMax every bloody day.
Cuba got it on its knees all by itself dude.
One gets the impression that BP really has no clue on how to stop the leak. We get the impression that there is no well thought out plan, and they are simply scrambling and "trying" things. We have no Red Adair for this type of disaster.
Actually we do have a Red Adair, but he's having a hard time getting heard.
All this secrecy.
What is an equally interesting thought and one that passes my mind seeing the "response" is that BP actually seems more intent on somehow salvaging the well instead of capping it.
It wall seems to be about getting the oil to the surface.
Bizarre if my conjecture is true.
Your thought had crossed my mind as well . . . probably at least one factor in their cleanup thinking is salvaging the well.
admittedly i would feel desperate enough to order dozens of barges to dump rock and sand on top of the oil blowout till its shut. and add cement to the mix. Of course that would not allow them to profit, so they wont do that.
They are the criminal on the scene of a major crime is my view. If any of us could so control our own crime scene?
All of us will be affected by this. ALL of us.
Yes Mere and Rebel,
If you follow the techno babble and confusion being generated around flow rates, like they want to keep every one off center, discussing the wrong things.
Something definitely STINKS and it isn't oil, it's big oil.
No El Nino effect this year = more hurricanes.
Yeah, all prior conversations about surface water temperature is moot. The tropical waters were boiling hot last year but El Nino upper level wind shear prevailed. It was amazing to watch eyewall after eyewall get blown up - El Nino was relentless.
Dispersants to drop some of the oil to the floor. Upwelling in a storm will bring it back up. Problem with dispersants is it will now be much greater in size but smaller in particles.
actually the dispersants are heavier then water also, and breaks up the oil so the lighter and heavier stuff breaks up.
At the end, the lightier stuff goes up, the heavier stuff stays below creating the risk of a time bomb when saturation points are reached as the heavier stuff attacts the methane particles. It could make the floor boiling and shoot all the stuff up to the surface like fountains. But that could take years, even decades, so it becomes our grandchildrens problem.
If oil is spread via huricane does it increase the risk of fire?
Someone claimed that the lightning during a hurricane may cause the oil to ignite.
If surface oil would catch fire, then the oil spread during a storm should coat every surface with a flammable slick.
So are we looking at more house fires and forest fires?
respect for the moniker, man. the stars my destination. the four mile circus. let's teach the gulf to jaunt, eh?
Don't smoke when it's raining. In fact, just quit.
present policy is to double down. Nukes in the gulf would be the height of stupidity so i expect that. My faith in good government is showing LOL
The real question about BP is if they pay American taxes and how much.
The gov. is already spending money in BP's name without actuall information that BP agrees with that. Obama just says they have to. Which means that if they would disagree when the bill gets to steep, the gov. might nationalise american operations of BP.
The deficit doesn't allow Obama to spend money on high yielding foreign companies who ship profits overseas. Also, the oilfield will get pumped with or without BP.
Also the div. is a major question. Are they going to pay out the shareholders before damages are paid? And if one div. gets skipped, shareholders will turn to other oil companies turning BP insolvent in a month.
32 billion debt, 8 billion cash, 10% profit margin on their opperations (lowest of all the mayor oil companies).
I have a lot of questions about this companie and the scarce info going into the media doesn't bode well. Also the rate at wich the costs increase in just a few days time is dispersing current and future profits. And none of these things are calculated into the stock. the stock only reacts on current facts and for the last few days, BP stock is only reacting on lowering oil prices wich is supressing profits for BP even more then for the competition.
And let's not even mention the fact that fair value without the spill for BP stock is only 42$, so 30$ in the near future is a very good shorting indicator.
Why are you guys worried about he gulf. we already have the dead sopt with no oxygen the size of many states each year because of nitrogen run off. Hell, maybe when we finailly kill of everything things will be safe for drilling.
As an oil man it means I have to pay less for safety and therefore you investors get to share in my profits. I'm only thinking of maximizing my shareholder return for you investors.
Don't you realize I'm helping YOU!!!
I see the whole thing as a Forbidden Zone. Just ask yourself...
Will anyone for a generation consume any product made from Gulf seafood?
What are the odds of selling coastal homes or buildings there for a decade or so?
You say that like it's a bad thing...
Kimjo, consider if you were the CBL rep on site. You told the BP man what the rules say must be done. He refuses. You realize the inherent dangers and a . want to get folks to safety and b. realize in the face of opposition without a gun or respect that to remain is to tolerate illegality. he had to leave to make that point, in effect saying hey you are on your own, my responsibility ends here and now. I think he did the right thing. I dont see where he had any other choice.
absolutely agree. the schlumberger guys (at least according to the linked account) did exactly the right thing. bp is 'missing' 6-7 hours of logging data from that time period as well.
is it even remotely possible that our government is not aware of this?
even if bp lucks out and manages find a slartibartfast to manage the reconstruction of the gulf, i seriously doubt their ability to pay for same.
where is the nasa imagery from the last 5 days?
where is feynman when you need him? probably off chasing some skirt.
wanted: hero from nasa. not one to set the atomic charges on the seafloor, nope. the type who will risk his career and release the data to the public.
Why is BP still there and in charge? They wont give up the oil, the getting of it is more important than closing the leak.
Do we need to protest to get some REAL action towards closure?
Richard Feynman died in 1988. I was privileged to listen to him the year before he died. Our computer center was named after him.
hurricane affected areas might not have clean drinkable water for years. the epa will say it's fine, just like christie todd whitman and rudy guiliani, 3 days after 9/11, saying 'the air is safe to breathe'.
absolutely crazy (unconfirmed) story from the oil drum:
"BP contracted Schlumberger (SLB) to run the Cement Bond Log (CBL) test that was the final test on the plug that was skipped. The people testifying have been very coy about mentioning this, and you'll see why.
SLB is an extremely highly regarded (and incredibly expensive) service company. They place a high standard on safety and train their workers to shut down unsafe operations.
SLB gets out to the Deepwater Horizon to run the CBL, and they find the well still kicking heavily, which it should not be that late in the operation. SLB orders the "company man" (BP's man on the scene that runs the operation) to dump kill fluid down the well and shut-in the well. The company man refuses. SLB in the very next sentence asks for a helo to take all SLB personel back to shore. The company man says there are no more helo's scheduled for the rest of the week (translation: you're here to do a job, now do it). SLB gets on the horn to shore, calls SLB's corporate HQ, and gets a helo flown out there at SLB's expense and takes all SLB personel to shore.
6 hours later, the platform explodes.
Pick your jaw up off the floor now. No CBL was run after the pressure tests because the contractor high-tailed it out of there. If this story is true, the company man (who survived) should go to jail for 11 counts of negligent homicide."
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6464#comment-623420
i'm not seeing how bp can remotely cover the cost of cleanup.
i hope all the nuke talk stops.
Howdy Kimyo,
Think I know you from the drum.
Check this out, Obama's crack team of Chu (Energy Sec.) includes the man that designed the H bomb.
http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-14/obama-sends-bomb-inventor-m...
Sure they might want him for his general genius.
Meanwhile, I'm still awaiting a call :-)
didja ever catch that michael j. fox on letterman show where dave says 'hey michael, you've been on the show now 14 times, and i've never asked you what the 'j' stands for.'
mjf pauses for the perfect moment, says 'genius'.
nice to see you here. what's your name on the drum? not shelburn i hope....;-)
as it's midnight on saturday, i'll go with my theory of maximal doom, which is that the reason they are talking about nukes is that they know the well cannot be plugged. either they're trying to prevent the shutdown of shipping through the gulf, or, worse, the immediate problem is not the oil, it is the gas, they know that a giant methane release is the clusterfuck of all clusterfucks, and so they call in the geni-i. (aka exploding whale people).
I'm the ohregionalindian with the oil spill solution!
:-)
And now, knowing who has seen the site I've put up, I am quite sure that we are not, definitely not being told the HOLE truth about this charade of cap and clean up.
Something wicked this way comes!
my theory: if the cement is bad, nothing can possibly work except for the kill wells. and, they should be drilling at least 3 kill wells, 4 if possible, hurricane season is upon us.
there's a funny odor coming from denninger's site. (deflation + gulf coast hurricane = 90% loss on real estate? or maybe 'nuke in my backyard' syndrome?)
you weren't that poster that was being coy with your solution, were you? what is your proposal?
i'm cross posting this here (intended to start a conversation at latoc, but of course would like same here):
'we' are all over the place here. but, do 'we' have goals? can we agree on a punchlist and then make it happen?
i propose these:
1) bp out of the driver's seat.
2) no dispersant usage.
3) full public release of all rov/satellite/nasa/noaa data.
your suggestions? perhaps we pick the top 3 as voted on by the latoc hivemind, and then find a way to make them happen. (out of work fishermen, restaurant workers filling up at bp stations, 1 gal/purchase, 10 times/day? that might make the news for 2 days. i'd do it up here in new york, in solidarity with my gulf coast brethren. if they interview me, i'm going to say 'i love bp gas, i will only buy bp gas from this moment forward. just, $1 at a time.)
one benefit to this style of chernobyl is that it is unfolding in slow motion.
oops. i already thought of another. ready plans to evacuate the elderly, infirm, immediately evac all pregnant women.
it may be slow motion, but time is of the essence. maybe we can make it be less worse.
love your $1 BP special idea...brilliant. better yet, make the buys with plastic & let the banker boys skim off each transaction.
death by a thousand dollar debit cards.
excellent, debit cards ftw.
also, possibly better? i suggest payment in pennies.
let's go 'yes men' on them:
for immediate release:
bp requests that all payments at our gleaming eviro-yellowgreen nature stations be made in pennies. unwrapped are fine.
our crack team of nasa scientists (if they had any honor, they would speak) has determined that only pennies will work in the mother of all junk shots.
we thank you for your business.
extract sarcasm, we're good to go.
i might just print out a 'bp official notice' tonight, tape it up by the cash register.
cool, upload a copy, link it here, and let's get to work.
pennies is a genius idea. they're becoming worthless anyhoo so let's stick em in the hole!
Yup Kimyo, coy solution guy, is me.
But there is a larger reason for said coyness, will become clear over the next week (or two max). I promise you that.
But TPTB's coyness at releasing any meaningful data smells worse by the the minute.
Cui bono?
Larger plan? Earthquake coming? Made earthquake coming?
But if you remember Katrina, people are really hard to move (and understandable, as they saw in Katrina's case, many of them never got to go back).
A people driven, planned evac. plan sounds fantastic though. It'll take a lot of logistics to make that happen.
How does one co-ord. it?
please email me kim@projectgt.com
the problem is not the methane(?) gas mixing with water, the problem is the gas getting into the atmosphere? that's why they're talking nuclear solutions?
it's urgent cause of the potential for global cooling and massive crop failure?
the whole coyness routine is very fetching and all, but this is the fate of the human race we're talking about here.
is there an atmospheric gas measurement that we can perform to independently confirm this?
"i hope all the nuke talk stops."
The taxpayers spent a lot of money on those nukes. It's time they got their money's worth.
"(Coast Guard chemists have tested the oil, but - to date - no reports have been made public.)"
we're from the grubberment and we're here to help.
The March 2009 bear market rally ended last week.
http://tinyurl.com/39ptoac
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
George Washington, Thank you for a needed post.
Welcome to Fl-OIL-da! At least my 3 eyed descendants will be fiat rich!
A Bigger Problem
Most articles about the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe have focused on the oil. That's only the lesser of our problems, by a factor of 1/3,000 -- the ratio of oil to natural gas which may create a "dead zone" out of the entire Gulf of Mexico.
"A BP executive stated that they were removing 3000:1 gas to oil at the well before the explosion. (thats 3000 barrels of gas for every barrel of oil) The amount of oil leaking into the gulf is 25,000 to 70,000 barrels.
at 3000:1 this would mean 75 - 210 million barrels of gas per day being released.
There is 5.64 cubic feet of gas per barrel.
That would mean there is 13.3 to 37.2 million cubic feet of gas being released each day."
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/5/14/866430/-OilpacalypseGas-Leak...
Actually, I think you on to something.
Methane dissolves in seawater untill it gets a surtain saturation point where it starts off a chain reaction where the gas shoots out of the water. They are called gasfountains and occured somewhere in Nigeria a few years ago, where a hughe lake exploded.
Now, the turning of the water, and the gas might trigger something like it.
Also notice that 1 cubic meter of methane at the bottom of the sea becomes 1680 cubic meters of methane gas if released from the pressure.
Hurricanes also trigger lightnings which could trigger major explosions.
I SHOULD PUT THIS INTO A SCRIPT AND MAKE A B MOVIE ABOUT THAT STUFF!!
Erm, at those pressures and temps, probably the "gas" coming out mostly turns into ice???
Similar to Sudden Debt's potential work of fiction
http://www.amazon.com/Mother-Storms-John-Barnes/dp/0812533453/ref=sr_1_1...
"When a tactical nuclear strike releases massive amounts of methane from the North Pacific's ocean beds, global weather patterns transform the entire ocean surface into a massive spawning ground for hurricanes. As perpetual storms threaten to decimate Earth's population, politicians, scientists, and visionaries grope for solutions while ordinary people struggle to stay alive."
Terrific read! However anyone expecting a Hollywood type ending -- where a brilliant maverick scientist single-handedly reverses global catastrophe and puts everything back the way it was -- probably has not read John Barnes before. He approaches worst-case scenarios with merciless logic.
BTW you know you are poor when you stop to look at people eat.
you know you are really poor when you walk truh the night to stay warm and safe, and sleep during the day in public.
You know you are poor when laundry and shower gets done at a gasstation bathroom.
when you are thirsty , but dare not use the hose on the lawn without asking.
You know you are poor when all others become "marks" in your eyes.
You know you are poor when the other guy has less than you but you cant help him
Then again i have had nothing but the clothes on my back and was happy.
I just listened to "Down and Out in Paris and London" by George Orwell. Really entertaining - you might really like it if you're never read it. MP3 in my case; multitasking.
http://www.george-orwell.org/Down_and_Out_in_Paris_and_London/index.html
Thanks WaterWings, very interesting read.