This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Hurricanes Could Spread Gulf Oil Inland
AccuWeather.com's Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski points
out today that hurricanes may spread the Gulf oil inland:
While
the oil leak disaster in the Gulf of Mexico is bad enough, many people
have been wondering what could happen if a hurricane were to slam into
the region.
AccuWeather.com hurricane expert Joe Bastardi is concerned by
multiple threats from storms throughout the season in the Gulf of
Mexico.
[According to predictions for an active
hurricane season this year], much of the central and western Gulf
of Mexico could be one of several targets for potential multiple
tropical storm and/or hurricane landfalls this year.
Depending on the approach of a tropical storm or
hurricane, increasing winds and building, massive seas would first
halt containment operations.
Rough seas would dislodge or
destroy protective booms, rendering them useless as the storm draws
closer.
Next, as the storm rolls through, high winds on the right
flank of a hurricane making landfall would cause some oil to become
airborne in blowing spray. A storm surge could carry contaminants
inland beyond bays, marshes and beaches to well developed locations.
Even a glancing blow from a hurricane passing to the west of the oil
slick could be enough for winds and wave action to drive the goo
nearby onshore, or to more distant fishing and recreation areas,
perhaps in foreign waters.
During the age of sail, winds
occasionally blew ships hundreds of miles off course. The wind could
have the same effect on the oil slick.
Now, imagine several
storms during the season doing the same thing.
Hurricanes are powered by the heat released when moist air rises. As McClatchy notes,
it is possible that the oil might slow down the hurricane formation
process in the oil spill zone itself by reducing the evaporation of
seawater:
Oil wouldn't have an effect on the
track of the storm or the intensity, said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for
the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
He added, though, that a hurricane or tropical storm might have trouble forming in or near an oil slick.
"Oil
itself suppresses evaporation of the ocean's water," Feltgen said.
"Tropical cyclones require a good amount of that moisture for those
deep thunderstorms to develop, so it could slow down the genesis
process."
Masters said while there are different theories
on what happens when storms and oil mix, it's difficult to tell until
it happens.
"It's kind of an open question," he said. "We
don't know what would happen, but if they don't clean up the oil spill
by September, then we definitely could see some hurricane and oil spill
interaction.
In other words, it may be less likely that a hurricane could spill right in the spill zone; but hurricanes could easily form outside of the spill zone and then interact with oil as they moved towards shore.
Oil
is toxic
for humans, containing
many different compounds:
Oil contains a mixture
of chemicals. The main ingredients are various hydrocarbons, some of
which can cause cancer (eg. the PAHs or polycyclic aromatic
hydrocarbons); other hydrocarbons can cause skin and airway irritation.
There are also certain volatile hydrocarbons called VOCs (volatile
organic compounds) which can cause cancer and neurologic and
reproductive harm. Oil also contains traces of heavy metals such as
mercury, arsenic and lead.
The oil in the Gulf is also unrefined, unlike the stuff you pour into
your car. It also comes from the deepest oil well
ever drilled, and it is possible that the chemistry is different
at such great depths due to pressure, heat or other factors. So it is
hard to tell at this point whether it is more or less toxic than
standard, refined oil (Coast Guard chemists have tested the oil, but -
to date - no reports have been made public.)
In addition, highly toxic dispersants have been used to
try to break up the oil. See this
and this.
Not only are dispersants being released underwater,
but the air
force is also dropping dispersants on the slick from above.
The
official information for the dispersant reveals problems:
OSHA
requires companies to make Material Safety Data Sheets, or MSDSs,
available for any hazardous substances used in a workplace, and the ones
for these dispersants both contain versions of a disturbing statement.***
Both
data sheets include the warning "human health hazards: acute." The MSDS
for Corexit 9527A [the dispersant apparently being used in the Gulf]
states that "excessive exposure may cause central nervous system
effects, nausea, vomiting, anesthetic or narcotic effects," and
"repeated or excessive exposure to butoxyethanol [an active ingredient]
may cause injury to red blood cells (hemolysis), kidney or the liver."
It adds: "Prolonged and/or repeated exposure through inhalation or
extensive skin contact with EGBE [butoxyethanol] may result in damage to
the blood and kidneys."
The bottom line is that hurricanes
could very well spread the damage from the Gulf oil spill.
In
the best case scenario, the gusher will have been capped and some
cleanup commenced by the time the first hurricane hits the Gulf, the
hurricane will be small, and the effects minimal.
In the worst
case scenario, a major hurricane could spread toxic compounds inland
onto crops. It could also aerosolize and then spread toxic chemicals,
causing serious health problems for local residents - especially
children, the elderly and those already at risk.
For background on the Gulf oil spill, see this.
- advertisements -
So the US is finally catching up with the poor in the rest of the world.
More refugees. This is really gonna play hell with the census. We are all hobos now. If your turn hasnt come yet, lucky you, you will be the last to know ...real humility
Everyone should have a sleeping bag to call their own.
at then some refugees from iceland ? arrline business in UK could go bust if this volcano goes on like this.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/05/15/uk.airports/index.html?hpt=T2
that libyan jet crash happened a day after they closed airports in morocco and northern italy.
volcanic ash in those engines would shut aviation down, i hope.
Make it a Wiggy's. It'll still work if you get some oil on it:
Thanks WaterWings. I may switch. I bet the ground is still just as hard.
I always thought, "Meh, I've got a sleeping bag already." I didn't really care about moisture control to prevent heat loss because I've never actually camped in a worst-case scenario. It was survivalblog that got me thinking about it - reducing the weight of my bugout bag while maintaining quality - you get what you pay for!
The ground is just ss hard. LOL. Yeah, I'm kind of a princess in some ways.
years ago i caught a freight car on a hot summer eve. Got into the boxcar, laid out my cardboard ,then got into my sleeping bag to snooze as the evening unfolded on the way to New Orleans. Around 2:00 am i awoke to find my bag soaked, rain pouring in via the 2 large open doors and the 2 holes in the roof. It was bitter cold and i could not get the doors closed as the wind whipped rain all around me. My teeth were shattering so hard i could not hold my mouth closed. In retalliation i began to sing gospel music i made up on the spot as i was running in place to get warm. I considered jumping off but at 50 MPH it was a non starter. Besides i could see glistening water outside and didnt want to upset the crocs and snakes.
I planned to jump out when we passed truh a town but the train increased speed as we passed each town. entered New Orleans gratefully and barely alive.
another vote for more tales by merehuman. quickly, too, the world, she is ending....
In retaliation! Great tale.
Hurricanes will be the ultimate cleanup mechanism because of their ability to create dispersion.
Concentration of petroleum will drop as it is thinned and spread across wider areas.
Although unlikely, maybe a few tar pellets drop out of the sky in Birmingham, AL or Atlanta...not my problem.
Obama said the British have to pay for that!
"not my problem."
i'll try to remember that line if and when you're laying face down on the subway platform.
By the time a cat 4 or cat 5 storm enters into the Gulf, the "best" that the oil may do is shift it down to a cat 3 due to the suppression of evaporation. A cat 3 with that witch's brew will still coat anything and everything with an aerosol of potentially toxic unrefined oil. Worst case scenario is that such a storm may also significantly hamper or eliminate any of the surface level measures being taken to at least contain the spill.
The worst case might be worse.
A surface oil slick will inhibit evaporation.
Evaporative cooling of the sea surface will be reduced.
Hurricanes generally form outside the GOM and enter it as fully formed storms.
The leading edge of the storm will generate a sea state that breaks up the surface slick and exposes heated surface water. This exposure of heated surface water in the immediate path of the storm may result in an increase in storm strength.
Can a hurricane even form with that sludge on the surface?!
Snowball, take another look. I expanded the post to address that ...
My bad for not reading further before posting.
Woohoo...the Gulf is now our test-tube.
Bastardi? I'd love to know the story of how he ended up with his last name. I can guess...
He is a natif Rhode Islanda from Italian discent. You want your left kneecap broke or the right one, putz? ... and we gotta special on busted jaws, too! JB is one of THE best weather freaks in da cuntry. Badbing, badaboom!
posted this on another thread
2010 Hurricane Season Will Be More Active, Joe Bastardi Predicts
I like this guy and have followed him for years - (a lot of folks hate him) - accuweather pro is available on a subscription basis and they offer a 30 day free trial - worth checking out if you like weather - he nailed this past winter to a tee
article
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/25984/joe-bastardi-more-acti...
free trial
https://wwwl.accuweather.com/professional_signup.php
AIG took a extra 470 million$ insurrance for huricane damages for this year. They might have a good reason for it.
My question is: Does a surface layer of (black) oil, covering thousands of square miles attract and retain a greater amount of solar radiation?
In other words: Does a massive oil slick actually *increase* the chances of hurricane formation?
The question and answer in the article is ignorant. Hurricanes DO NOT FORM AT THAT POINT IN THE GULF! Hurricanes usually form off the coast of Africa, South America and Mexico. NOAA has a web tracker that shows the path of past hurricanes tracks.
People really should do at least ten mins. of research before they write?
Hurricanes certainly do form in that part of the gulf. It's generally a cold "dead" zone anyway, but one can certainly form in that area
The question distilled for you one more time, because the first time it apparently went over your head: Does an oil slick increase or decrease retention of solar radiation in subsurface water? The question is aspecific to any location or event.
Furthermore, regardless of the location of the formation of a hurricane, (Not all develop as far off as the coast of Africa) the surface temperatures in the Gulf are of extreme importance in predicting the strength and growth of a hurricane.
Perhaps you can take some time away from being smarter than everyone here, and help us little folk understand the effects of oil on surface temperature?
(People who clearly haven't had a blow job for several years, should try to relax before they write?)
I'm gonna say increases heat retention. Like a pool cover would, by decreasing evaporation of water(i.e. decreasing heat loss by evaporation). Also, one could imagine that the oil would be less reflective than water at its top surface, but would also absorb more light(energy) passing through it than water..increasing the evaporation rate of the oil itself. I dunno, en somme. Let's make a huge oil spill in the gulf and study the matter directly! It's not as if enormous quantities of naturally existing petroleum don't seep into the ocean every day, so the environmental impact ought to be short lived, a blink of an eye in geological terms. Once done, and airburst nuke over the slick ought to set a lot of it on fire. Let's go!
at this point the submission reads : "spill right in the spill zone" /ack!/
I am wondering about the impact on general water evaporation (if/when) this fuel additive makes its way into a more pervasive area. A slight alteration in water makeup would not be a good thing. Water chemistry (Earth's environment as a result) is a very delicate balance.
Hi Popo, as far as I know water can retain more energy than any type of oil. The blanket of oil may also make the sea cooler as less radiation penetrates the sea?
The question is "will oil on the surface reflect more energy or help retain it?" I do not know the answer, but if it helps retain it, we are in trouble (or at least those situated along the gulf are). If the oil helps retain energy on the surface, that means that storms coming into the gulf will encounter high temperature surface waters; which means cat 2's will become cat 5's.
Umm, a biiiig factor of difference between any normal year and a year with oil on the surface probably going to be decreased heat loss by evaporation. The oil itself is evaporating, but that wouldn't remove all that much energy, me thinks, because a big fraction of the hydrocarbons in the slick evaporates easily anyway...without carting much thermal energy away. The evaporation of H2O is a BIG heat remover from water. That's how thermal pool covers work mostly, by preventing evaporation. In no way can it increase the amount of light absorbed or transmitted. Oil might likely be less reflective than water at the surface thanks to a lower index of refraction, but then might absorb a lot of light internally.
Now that said, the effects of mist sized droplets of water on the ferocity of hurricanes has been documented too, and although the surface would be very tormented during the passage of a hurricane over the slick, possibly the miniscule, repeat miniscule, amounts of hydrocarbons dispersed in the water could have a major effect on wind speed. Not kidding.
most excellent question popo. you should email joe the bastard with it. it would probably get his marbles worked up. best mainstream weatherman in the country, bar none. that man knows his cloud fractals & butterfly wings.