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Please read my latest and post your comments here:
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010/06/from-hysteresis-to-hysteria.html
Thank you,
Leo Kolivakis
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listen butt head
i am 69 years of age .. had 4 kids . 17 grand kids /
and have seen the complete picture of this noxious life style ,, complete with anxious anguish , depression and death .. but not before the complete break down of the immunesystem and scream sfor relief
your sleazy anal posturing about women ,, is a pox on your mentality
you are so young not to understand the trafficking in women .. the mental and emotional factors in that squalid life .. the drugs the hard core aspects ,, the lives lost in the muck of men who live off the suffering of women
go talk to the little worn out chicks in the battered women's section ... the addiction centers treating the emotional and hard drug use of this oozing pile of leo puss.
you have the emotional and understanding of a 18 year old
and have not a clue what wets your pants in the suffering of so much of the population of women with out other forms of support rather than sell them selves for your imagined taste of a high life
obviously never having had children or little sweet girls waiting in the wings to service the like of the leos of the world for a price that is paid ,
but traffic in the porn of indulgent self gratification
go behind the seen leo find the squalid tells of the unseen the misery , the disease the heartbreak.
visit the wards of the many in huddled misery ,, screaming for relief of the vicious cycle of emotion pain
your not only a degenerate but a boil on the population .
and zero hedge tolerates such scum ,
maybe next they will support a selling program for women sold into the arms of classless ego driven men .and place a X rated on leo mouth .
a international forum that prays on the delights of sweaty eager little piles of manure ,, paying and advocating for glandular satisfaction.
visit the hosptal of the wretched lives broken ..and leo is part of the cause ,
some legacy to leave ,, but what legacy do you really have ,, but a person broken with a disease of the body but of the mind
not only are you a clueless hack .. but also some one who would fit in to the slum piles of the Asian women racket , selling lives into slavery ,, drug infested beds of women in postures of unknowing ,, for a mental midgets that get high on the lowest class of civilization .. reduced to the selling of parts .
and the traffickingof the suffering of others .. a true Keynesian. poverty , loss of life in wars , unemployment ,, and the life of a red faced greezy eyed flesh monger.
just wash your hands good next time you appear in public..
its not the feminazis . its the complete moral break down of a fallen hack ,,acting like a Greek goddess of wax.. your some play boy .. with body of clay .
That's supposed to calm me down?
Leo,
The fact that you post soft-core Porn as a reply to all your critics truly unveils the extreme wuss that you are.
Why don't you do us all a giant favor and just tell Tyler that you are in over your depth and want to resign right now.
It's the best thing that you could do for all of us a ZH here.
Thanks.
LK is a complex, but useful construct in the sense (it) is merely a training foil maybe purposely designed by ZH to sharpen the critical thinking skills of its readers.
The real metric (for traders) is performance. LK is consistently on the wrong side of price discovery. It is as simple as that.
I think you are much closer to the truth with this supposition than most readers here would be willing to believe.
Seacrest OUT!
Seacrest, Seacrest, Seacrest. What's you position? Out.
some perspective on the fulltime data (note full time is defined by hours worked as in >35hrs/wk. and includes temporary and permanent jobs. Part time is defined as <35hrs/wk and includes a subset who work part time due to economic conditions and a second subset who work part time for non-economic reasons. e.g. childcare problems, family or personal obligations, school or training, retirement or Social Security limits on earnings, and other reasons. All data is seasonally adjusted.
___________________
This first graph is full time data from 2000 to May 2010
Series Id: LNS12500000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Employed, Usually Work Full Time
Labor force status: Employed full time (persons who usually work 35 hours or more)
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LNS12500000_159553_1275776429824.gif
___________________
The second graph is total part time employment for the same period
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LNS12600000_110835_1275776558417.gif
___________________
The third graph is the part time subset for economic reasons
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LNS12032197_159579_1275776939938.gif
___________________
The fourth graph is perhaps the most interesting and disturbing. It shows the part time subset that is non-economic in nature (as described above),
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LNS12032200_110851_1275777019195.gif
(as you can see non economic makes up the bulk of part time)
___________________
While Leo focuses on the past 5 months the above graphs provide some perspective and raise some questions, the most obvious being what is up with the fourth graph?
Zeroing in on Leo's time frame here is full time employment since January
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LNS12500000_159595_1275777251004.gif
______________
here is total part time for the same period
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LNS12600000_110860_1275777318145.gif
________________________
here is the part time subset for economic reasons
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LNS12032197_159606_1275777389258.gif
____________________
and here is the part time subset for non economic reasons
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LNS12032200_110865_1275777453895.gif
____________________
So apart from the goosing that full time received because of Census in the past five months, the economically driven part time situation has gotten worse since January but the non economic part time has nose dived.
Explanations???
Private payrolls dissapointed because consumption is again slowing. Don't wait for the government Q2 GDP report, go "up-stream" and look at current consumption rather than waiting and hoping the jobs will come back. Government reports are months behind what is happening in our economy today. The Q1 GDP report reported what had occurred 17 weeks prior. Even "leading indicators" are weeks if not months behind today's real economy. Consumers are pulling back, and businesses are reacting. Government statistics will eventually show this weakness, but long after it matters. Using a 17 week lag in consumption (the same lag time as the Q1 figures), Q2 GDP is likely come in below 1% (if not already negative) and bring the "double dip" fears to the forefront of MSM conversations.
Leo, what will you do when we move to the downside of oil production? We are on the plateau now, we have been since '05, and geologists say that every year after peak will see a 9% decline! That will translate into GDP as a huge loss of growth. I know you are wrapped in solars, so that is not a bad place to be I guess, but when every other sector fails, and no one can afford expensive solar voltaic? I do not know man, it looks pretty bleak out there.
Also, the way that oil moved on Thursday even with a "strong" dollar, I think we may be in for an oil shock now. The world, let alone America, is not prepared for an oil shock. Good luck man!
Stay down Leo. Stay down.
Leo, what is the track record of the asset managers of the Canadian bank that uses your favorite economic forecasts?
Leo please read "Why It's Not A Normal Recovery"
http://www.comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=Newsletter.aspx&category=MarketCommentary&newsletterid=1529&menugroup=Home
Initial weekly unemployment claims for the latest reported week are 453,000. Claims steadily declined from 651,000 in March 2009 to 477,000 by Mid-November, but have been range-bound with no improvement in the last 6 ½ months.
Payroll employment in April increased 290,000, leaving the total still 7.8 million jobs below the pre-recessionary peak. In fact, on a point-to-point basis no new jobs have been added since November 1999.
Leo, you really believe small businesses which are dropping like flies created 200K jobs last month as reported in the birth-death model? Give me a break! Without census hiring and bogus b/d numbers we shed 200K jobs last month.
"But the fundamentals of the US are way better and once investors understand this, they will discriminate and stop focusing on "contagion", which is way overblown."
"I say that the fundamentals of our nation's economy are strong," Bush told a White House news conference. 9/20/2007
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuD07NekuQc
"The fundamentals of our economy are strong." - Sen John McCain 9/15/08
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kqbnEx5SDw
Well, I wondered for a while, but I now realize Zero Hedge has to have some comedic articles to lighten the dreary future outlook.
Good job Leo.
Yes, Leo. Thanks, that was, to put it bluntly, hysterical. Really hit the funny-bone. Hysteresis to hysteria to hysterical.
Leo,
Just wondering if you saw the economic downturn in 2008-2009 coming?
G20 weighs in on this discussion
http://media.ft.com/cms/422d6406-7093-11df-96ab-00144feabdc0.pdf
The recent events highlight the importance of sustainable public finances and the need for our countries to put in place credible, growth-friendly measures, to deliver fiscal sustainability, differentiated for and tailored to national circumstances. Those countries with serious fiscal challenges need to accelerate the pace of consolidation. Wewelcome the recent announcements by some countries to reduce their deficits in 2010 and strengthen their fiscal frameworks and institutions. Within their capacity, countries will expand domestic sources of growth, while maintaining macroeconomic stability.
italics are mine
heres a leo wet dream
The US Dollar is not strong because it is on solid fundamental ground, but rather because it is merely “not the Euro”.
The US has its own set of structural issues which are rapidly deteriorating and which will inevitably come back to haunt the US Dollar.
This is the reason that gold is going to continue to perform well as more and more it is being seen as a currency in its own right, one without liabilities attached to it. It popped over the 1000 Euro mark again today and continues rising in terms of nearly every single major foreign currency.
trader dan sinclairs mine set
get solars lol
if the clothes fit , they are ugly
It is interesting to note that after well more than 100 comments so far, there is not ONE poster here who is willing to back Leo up in his wildly deluded and hystericall assertions, many of them with facts and figures that utterly refute Leo's simplistic and disingenuous permabullshit slant.
Leo, stand down --- your hopeless half-truths, statistics-spinning and mainstream propaganda bulletpoints are simply not going to fly here.
And if you are inclined to reply that I am not the economist nor financial analyst that you may be, I am perfectly willing to concede that --- but I do not need to be able to refute every jot and tittle of your arguments, nor every statistical fact and figure, to know when I am being fed bullshit. And you, Leo, continue to serve up a veritable feast of it.
Read Pension Pulse and you might be excused for thinking Leo is two people. Unfortunately whenever I read the generally common sense Leo over there I think about the Leo over here and wonder if there isn't a serious chemical imbalance.
Ah Leo, Leo Leo. You now say "One month's data will not make the difference," yet when you thought it would be 700,000 (or whatever) you thought it would make all the difference in the world. So if the number doesn't fit, Leo must acquit.
US fundamentals are improving in a global market that is collapsing? Keep talking your ever sinking book, Leo, because you need someone who's an even bigger fool than you to bail you out. And that doesn't even take into account that US fundamentals are NOT improving. I won't even go after that big lie of yours, as others have already taken it apart.
Leo, This article has inspired me to do a bit more diggin and original research of my own.... Looks like the bears are out in force in Hungary....
Not for the faint of heart......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpVqM2TGhiE&feature=channel
junk me if you must.... but not the bears..... CB
Leo,
Dark clouds must have moved in and are blocking your solar panels and henceforth clouding your opinion. We were experiencing a fake and simulated improvement and it is proving to be as real as Obama himself.
This goes right along with last week's post....Beyond Market Turbulence,by Leo Kolivakis .. Quote "But if you look beyond the turbulence, and focus on the improving fundamentals, then a different picture emerges. To be sure, the big beta moves of 2009 are over, but going forward, there will be money to be made if you pick your stocks and sectors right. That much I'm sure of."..... Now Leo, if you're looking to bury your head deeper into the sand may I suggest a beach in Louisianna? With all that oil lubing your big noggin, you ought to be be able to get ur in there nice and deep!
lol yes, yes indeed.. and he was as right as he ever is.
& in his defence there was a lot of money to be made on the 350pts downwards on the Dow since then.
seriously you'd have a much better strike rate flipping a coin than listening to Leo's fantasy blabberings
Economic Council Research, Inc (ECRI), plus the US Gov't Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) numbers show the US reached its peak in Jan 2010 from the March 2009 bottom and has been tipping over every week since then. "Economic Growth" as measured by the ECRI has dropped from 25% in Jan 2010 to 0.4% last week, with a pace of decline (ie slope of their tracking line) that will end up at approx -20% within 4-8 weeks. I have no vested interest in the ECRI numbers other than their charts show we started a decline around summer of 2007, hit bottom around APril 2009, so I take their word that the stats they measure are somewhat accurate. Pragcap.com tracks them weekly and releases the data points and chart. It's enough to have me shorting the market rather strongly....
Not even that --- for the Keynesian elitist, their willful and boundless arrogance recognizes no defeat, ever.
Leo,
Tax receipts continue to drop, so I am at a loss at this "wage bill" argument. In addition, tax rates---including cap gains rates---will be going up. That'll take buying power out of the economy.
As for hedging Euro risk, hedges are not so simple. Some hedge, some don't. Some hedge for long periods of time, some short. Some hedge specific price levels. Hedges expire, leaving firms naked. We have seen a rapid move from 150 to 119, which will create a huge competitive problem for US firms who are either unhedged or hedged within price or time limits.
Finally, maybe I am an outlier, but I not only know of no one who has been hired recently, but I don't know anyone who knows anyone else who has been hired recently. Nor have I seen any announcements, which any public firm would be sure to trumpet for PR reasons if they were, in fact, hiring. Bernanke just said this week that loans are not being made to small business, so it seems unlikely they would be the source of these 2.4 million jobs.
I guess I agree with Bruce; it's nothing but bad. It was actually painful to watch Barbera yesterday (after his economist's expert prediction of 225K private sector jobs, based on his "models"), when it came in at 25K instead. A trader who made a similar degree mistake would be let go immediately; as an economist, he pays little price other than pride.
Chindit13, this comment is not directed towards you, but to all those economists/analysts who create "models" to to predict the future. Predicting the future, huh? Such hubris. The only thing a model does best is to look anorexic or stoned.
A major reason why "tax receipts continue to drop" is the fact that people are, now more than ever, participating in the underground economy, away from the eyes of the tax man.
Working under-the-table, buying shit on the internet, making off-the-books transactions, etc.
Bartering has also been gaining popularity.
But, I thought you were with Leo. No?
Given Leo's record of cheerleading the Greece debacle and his pumping of the lastest dumb money boiler room fad, chinese solars, this article is exactly what I would expect from him.
Negative 2% GDP?
http://www.consumerindexes.com/index.html
"The prior BEA estimate of 1st Quarter 2010 GDP growth trailed our 'Daily Growth Index' by 127 days, and because of the rapid rate that the economy was cooling when the measurements were being made the newly adjusted estimate is now trailing our 'Daily Growth Index' by 125 days.
Since the 3rd Quarter of 2010 ends 125 days after May 28th (when our 'Daily Growth Index' was recording a 'growth' rate of -1.99%), if the BEA estimates continue to trail our 'Daily Growth Index' in a consistent manner we should expect that the 3rd Quarter's GDP 'growth' rate will be in the -2.0% neighborhood."
i hope you are right Leo.....
hope you are right Leo.....
hope in the left hand shit in the other
its not matter of hope you are right .. leo is playing game of fast and loose with numbers
with the keynesian wet dream.. his analysis his counterproductive because some nitwit or non thinking person could be hurt very bad by .. kind of like a susie orman following ,,
she putters around in 32 million dollar book deals... tells the common folk to keep buying stock but just average down .. lives a LIFE of positive thinking , from cook to book ,
dangerious to live on hope .. or waiting for a disabiltiy check .. and propping up the pension for over paid goverment workers and doulbe dip garbage people in new york drawing pension of 100 grand at 40.
dangerous and very smelly work... rock on
Leo you are playing fast and loose with statistics.
You state in a comment above:
"Full-time jobs were up 2.4 million in last 5 months!!!!"
Why don't you tell the readers the rest of the story??????
In the BLS table that you are referencing, "Employed full-time workers are persons who usually work 35 hours or more per week." You will note that they are not distinguishing between Full Time temporary and Full Time permanent. In other words your number includes temporary workers e.g. the census workers.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm#cps_empsit_a06.f.1
.
If it makes you feel any better, the MSM definitely agrees with your assessment. In the last 24 hours, I read a ton of articles about how all these top companies are hiring. CNBC ran a story about how pick up sales are up 50% over last year. Fan-fu*cking-tastic! I'm really getting sick of the sheeple and the MSM...
Ya i saw that...their 'pickup truck indicator' or whatever its called is the biggest piece of garbage to ever hit their station (besides any time DK opens his beak). That the on-air editors allowed that thing to even be shown is beyond me, but then again bullish news = pump in GE stock and hence more green shoots up everyones asses.
Leo,
What about the hundreds of thousands of college grads that moved back in with mom and dad this month because they can't find work? What about the 65+ year old baby boomers that will not retire because they lost their savings? You missed your calling dude, you should have been a reporter for Yahoo. Better yet you should start the Leo Kolivakis Show and take over Andy's set in Mayberry? Just think, you could sit around with Goob and Barney and eat freshly baked pies that Aunt Bee just made while Opie white washes the neighbors's fence. Hows does that sound " AY"?
a laws of reality
After our hands become coated with grease, your nose will begin to itch and you’ll have to pee.
Anything is possible if you don’t know what you are talking about.
taken from a blog site
Leo:
from National Bank Financial chief economist Stéfane Marion (you quoted earlier)
____
http://business.financialpost.com/2010/06/04/the-inflation-question/
While a quick surge of moderate inflation may be tempting, National Bank Financial chief economist Stéfane Marion doesn’t think it would be an easy task. That’s because the politician behind the move would quickly encounter a massive demographic roadblock.
In the early 1900s, when only 16% of voters were aged 55 and over, Marion says inflating your way out of a debt may have been politically palatable. These days, however, this group already accounts for 40% of the voting population in a number of countries.
So would policymakers dare destroy the value of fixed income assets held by the most populous group of voters through a burst of inflation? He doubts it. “In our view, solving the debt problem must be done through the implementation of structural change.”
___
this doesn't jive with your post above when you said:
"The ECB will not have a choice but to lower rates and engage in QE. "
----
For many reasons, it's not that clear to me that QE is that easy to do nowadays.
I do not think that causing inflation would be all that easy in the current situation.
Bond investors (excepting fund managers) are a savvy a group of investors. As soon as they get a whiff of inflation (massive printing) central banks will be paying a lot more interest to sell bonds. If interest rates rise what is left of Main St will be hammered and so will any chance of a recovery.
QE could be the only option available...more can kicking...
The us job market is so bad.. the Mexicans are moving back
to Mexico...
God love you, Leo, as the world needs optimists as well. However, your posts usually remind me of the ending scene and song in "The Life of Brian".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo
The wild card that no one seems to pick up on is the free housing factor. 10% or more of the people in this country have little or no housing expense because they ain't paying the mortgage. I think the number is actually higher and is going up, not down. At the end of the day, the more that don't pay the easier it will be for those that want to quit just due to the massive numbers. The easier it is, the more quit, the more quit, the easier it is, on and on. Although that screws up the lien's - pension funds, sovereign's, bond holders, etc. it helps the local bartenders and cashiers at the Gap. It also puts pressure on other assets as they have to be liquidated to make up for the worthless MBS being held. So, maybe the coming collapse in stocks, CRB, etc. is due to free housing? Long Olive Garden (to a point), short everything else. Really just a math equation that isn't that hard to solve.
On a side note, although a buddy hasn't paid the note on a resort condo to EMC in three years while continuing to rent it out, he got a Fed Ex package last week offering to rework the mortgage if the proper paperwork was sent in. Now he's set for another 2 years minimum as a no cost producer of resort property for rent as he takes his sweet time playing the game. Gotta love this county.
While your friend may be "bigging it up" now due to his penchant for not servicing his debt (and in some cases, I agree strategic default is a good option) it will come and bite these people in the ass at some point. It has to. No such thing as a free lunch, even when Bernanke is printing cash and throwing it from helicopters.
The Piper will be paid. These debts will simply accrue, there will be claw back when the banking system goes through its next implosion cycle, not far off now.