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http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2010/06/from-hysteresis-to-hysteria.html
Thank you,
Leo Kolivakis
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Not my "friend"
But, he's a non-recourse State; he will not directly pay the piper.
He'll get his comeuppance but not through his mortgage.
In effect he not only bought an option for free (the motgage) he got paid very well indeed for doing so.
only the banks will not pay the piper they think
and how will it bite these people in the ass .
they take a chapter 7 . use their combined 500 thousand opt out for taxes.
of course this lunch aint free .. they wil lbe paying out the nose as will you ..for the imperial world powers and wars with out end .
they will claw back "if " thats a big if... most of the banks are and have to pay this piper first , they are all living off the little guy
the little guy has no blood on his hands ,
"...for the imperial world powers and wars with out end."
Sorry, but those Imperial powers (whoever they might be), will have a tough time overcoming 5000+ Nukes in US possession.
Yes.
"The wild card that no one seems to pick up on is the free housing factor."
I've seen this work another way: the freeloader puts the extra income / saved mortgage / no rent into FNM or whatever penny stock he cares for because he feels great to have 10,000 shares of "XYZ."
I'm really getting sick and tired now of Leo, not because I disagree with him, but because he is now getting basic facts wrong. I don't think reading LK here on ZH will be worthwhile anymore, not even for a chuckle. I reluctantly urge ZH to kick LK off the site, again not because of his point of view, but because he is now propogating false data to back up his POV. I'm sure there is another better qualified Pollyanna to wear the rose colored glasses.
By the way, I don't always agree with those presenting negative points of view on ZH either. And it is bothersome when bloggers like Reggie Middleton (who I often agree with) use the site just to pitch his shit. RM, if you want to charge for it, then get the f off ZH.
Okay, that's about all that was on my chest.
I hope you feel better. Now, back to regular programming...
I would like to second this motion, my six year old niece makes more sense.
Leo,
Wish I could agree with you. The financial system is broken. It has been broken since 2008 and maybe was broken long before then, only we just didn't know it. Now we have these stupendous budget deficits that just can't be paid off and there is no growth in "organic" employment (employment ex-government stimulus). It is like having cancer that can no longer be cured. Everyone is happy when it goes into remission. Well Leo, the financial system went into cancer remission recently, if at all, or perhaps there was a wrong prognosis. This financial system is deader than dead. Governments do not reform themselves. They collapse or they are conquered if they are not healthy. I am tired of living with a dying system. I say, forget the optimism, forget the belief that we will get any kind of reformation (where is Martin Luther?), forget the belief that this economic cancer can be cured. It is delusion. Let 'er collapse; the sooner the better; so that we can either establish a proper financial system or go deeper into the "Dark Ages". We are living in some Dark Ages right now. The only differences between now and then are technology and advances in science we have today. It is the Dark Ages of corruption, union greed, economic foolishness and an utter lack of hope because of the lack of the elements of real freedom; truth, justice (rule of law) and true capitalism.
Has the financial system ever been in a state where it is not "broken"?
Lyndon LaRouche mentions that there is a Constitutional solution (Article 2, Section 8?) that could place the US Govt/Financial system back on a sane and legal footing, but it involves declaring bankrupcty -- think it'll happen under Obamatron?
+1. Well put.
It is hard to know what the jobs numbers mean, because it is hard to know if you can trust that they are not cooking the books. To me a fundamental issue is not just how many people are working, but what they are doing. It is hard to get around the fundamental issue that we do not make anything in US any more. If ten more people get jobs at a tanning salon, and Buffalo Wild Wings, I am not sure how good the news is. We have no manufacturing base, so we buy most everything we need from overseas, and we buy with borrowed money. Personal debt out of control, government debt out of control, trade deficit out of control. Remind me how this ends well?
Thats not entirely true. We build things that blow other things up.
it is hard to know if you can trust that they are not cooking the books. .. really
and what part of cooking the books do you not understand
read williams shadow statistics to get the complete cooking the book history of government
and any analysist and supposed writer of economic reality would be well served to take a look
but some just have a obsession with three blind mice
Dumpster,
Of course I agree with you. My point however, even if we give them the numbers, and believe they are correct, the problem still persists. The things we have to have we buy from overseas with borrowed money.
On your topic book cooking, my favorite is GDP. In minds of most people bigger GDP=Good. GDP measures borrowing and consumption, not production. It should be renamed GDC. For example, if someone buys an ipod on a credit card, with no chance of ever paying it off, GDP goes up. If government borrows money from China and buys a statue of Lady Gaga from Mexico, GDP goes up. So, things that are bad in real life, are counted as good in GDP.
I would imagine if we could look at true GDP, with a real P, over the last 20 years the numbers would be staggering.
10 -4 rebel
we live in a house of make believe .. with 30 year old analyst not having lived the length of time as a knat
most never having had a job in their life ,, except for beginning macdonald hamberger school
telling the world .. winter aint that bad .
they never used the out house of sears catalogues to wipe those cheeky opinions of Keynes .
a failed model and getting worse every day.
and because they were raised on crumpets and tea . they think bread lines are just the odd man out collecting 35 million food stamps.
and we are just the next play boy computor game away from narvania
"Look to the essence of a thing, whether it be a point of doctrine, of practice, or of interpretation."
Marcus would agree
Cassandra was a Debbie Downer too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSAC3dux3p0
It's time to look for loose change.
Yeah, and if I remember my Homer, Cassandra was raped by the Argives in the temple of Athena, taken back to Greece, where she was murdered by Agamemnon's wife. Yikes.
First (?) documented case of "Shooting the Messenger."
Cassandra was correct, the Trojans ignored her warning.
Fundamentals and a few basic trends alone tell me that this is no real recovery. Taxes are rising. Regulation is rising. Things are slowing worldwide - here in Taiwan orders have declined starting around end of March. Labour costs in the developed economies haven't come down much, if any. More social programs are adding more compliance costs. Spending is beginning to slow again. Borrowing demand remains sluggish at best. Outstanding consumer credit continues to fall.
You can add to that currency turmoil, concern about Europe and now concern about CHINA.
It's simply NOT POSSIBLE to have a real recovery without these things changing massively - the best you're seeing is a "recovery" measured by dollar numbers - not one on the street.
Run an engine (economy) long enough without oil (real production of assets/capital), and the Engine WILL SEIZE UP!
leo your being blindsided by the Canadian banks
using flawed and distorted economic numbers flawed and distorted birth death models for unemployment
it sees to me .. that your inquiry should be using real statistical numbers and not the usual hedonistic models produced by governments used by Keynesian economists in most institutions .
why have you not procured a subscription to williams shadow statistics ,, and the real goings on ..in both employment and business activity .
in your position one would think that being right would be better than scurrying favor with pensions readers.
Until and when you are objective and willing to really find out the underlying fundamentals then these reports are based on eye wash.
those that have a handle on the real numbers and can see through the cancer of government propaganda and flawed save me in the next election game manship.
must it take the reality smacking you in face come december , and the massive debt pile come home to roost .. as the hedge funds roll intothe buck .. as 36 states in america roll in to bankruptcy ,
over look the glaring reality is akin to being in the script of candide ... The Best of all possible worlds
"we must cultivate our garden" lol
U.S.’s $13 Trillion Debt Poised to Overtake GDP: Chart of DayBy Garfield Reynolds and Wes Goodman
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- 'President Barack Obama is poised to increase the U.S. debt to a level that exceeds the value of the nation’s annual economic output, a step toward what Bill Gross called a “debt super cycle.”
The CHART OF THE DAY tracks U.S. gross domestic product and the government’s total debt, which rose past $13 trillion for the first time this month. The amount owed will surpass GDP in 2012, based on forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. The lower panel shows U.S. annual GDP growth as tracked by the IMF, which projects the world’s largest economy to expand at a slower pace than the 3.2 percent average during the past five decades."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aa0cI64Gx.4E&pos=15
Better chart: http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2010/03/most-important-chart-of-century...
The question is how many levels of recursive debt can an anemic Economy stand BEFORE running out of (computer memory) stack space and issuing a general protection fault?!
We have mortgage debt wrapped up in CDOs wrapped up in CDO^2...
Mathematical reality is catching up with Financial fantasy folks, end of discussion.
It's only a matter of time.
Average hourly earnings for all private-sector workers are up 2% over the past 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Large employers are expected to raise employee base salaries by a mere 2.5% this year, according to Hewitt Associates (HEW), the human resources consulting firm. That would be the second-lowest wage increase on record, with last year's 1.8%.
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2010/pi2010025_902249.htm
Retail Sales Disappoint, As The Pent-Up Demand Is Exhausted
http://www.businessinsider.com/retail-sales-dissapoint-as-the-pent-up-de...
Average hourly earnings for all private-sector workers are up 2% over the past 12 months
if you fire all the chaf ( lower wage earners usually) and you keep the best/brightest ( more $/hour) which usually happens in a downturn won't the stat above naturally improve? Much like our 9.7% UE rate? Less people in job market = "better" UE#?
Leo,
Just remember where you're posting.
This place is full of Debbie Downers....
http://video.yahoo.com/watch/111272/605855
trimmed hedge
also full of savy and realistic readers ,, and some very smart fellows
are you a leo come to the rescue kind of friend?
if there are only two people in a locker room, they will have adjacent lockers. ,
Trimmed Hedge,
LOL! Love it, worth embedding this vid:
Debbie Downer @ Yahoo! Video
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/26/AR200901...
ROFL Nice deflection. Cant remember laughing that hard in a long time.
Leo, you really should get a job as Christina Romer's assistant. Stay the course. Repeat. Stay the course. The fundamental issue is - what will drive private sector job growth in this country? The only bubble currently going on is in government debt creation. Manufacturing? Maybe, but the recent blip is probably due to inventory re-stocking which has pretty much run its course. Consumer spending? That may be holding up to the fact that 650,000 households haven't paid their mortgages in over a year, but eventually the system will catch up with them and that "free money" will go away. I'm not going to mindlessly pound on you, but I have yet to see a compelling argument made for what will drive private sector job creation.
Elvis, you still alive? LOL! Shave your sideburns so you can see clearly. Corporate profits will drive job growth. More profits means more business investment too. This will bolster growth in the second half of the year and next year.
I mean, be real, who you going to trust Leo or Reggie?
Leo or Tyler?
Leo you are a muppet. and you'd make a fine politician one day.
corporate profits drie job growth in China, buy a map Leo
Corporate profit growth (ahead of inevitable tax increases from our power mad central government) will be retained to permit surviving huge piles of corporate debt issued during the credit boom. Those debts have maturities, and the smart money is judging they won't be able to roll much of it. DELEVERAGING is what this is about.
Okay, fair enough. We shall see.
give it up, leo
LEO = PERMABULL
Enough said, let's move on.
No, LEO = PERMABULLSHIT
The "buy chinese solars" mantra seems delusional as well, but he makes sense from time to time too.
Leo,
not that I really care but seems you are looking for an outcome and searching for evidence to support your POV and disregarding contrary info. Admittedly, there is a mix of positive and negative indicators and on the whole one has to make a determination but I don't find you're analysis nuanced or balanced. Simply seemingly taking one side of black / white. Typically I appreciate those who are tortured by having a foot in both camps (knowing and appreciating both) and only reluctantly choose one.
How you can disregard so many significant issues and pretend that the interconnectivity of the system is understood and won't result in a suprise none of us expected (positively or negatively) I don't get. I guess my point is this is a highly uncertain time and your "certainty" of a highly positive outcome seems silly (same for those sure this is the end of capitalism or American pre-eminence). All outcomes are possible and in the end we can only hedge for all likelihoods in varying degrees.
I think a good dose of Cognitive Disonance's posts should do the trick.....I hope....
And this from Dave Rosenberg's page. With no sarcasm, I hope you read this, Leo my friend:
NFIB SAYS JOBS MARKET STILL WEAK
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) came out with some preliminary data points for May’s survey. Here are the comments — definitely not aligned with the Obama-Biden view of the labour market backdrop:
"Since January 2008, the average employment per firm has been negative every month, including May 2010, which yielded a seasonally adjusted loss of negative 0.5 workers per firm. Most firms did not change employment in May, but for those that did, 8 percent increased average employment by 2.4 employees and 20 percent reduced their workforces by an average of 4 employees. Small business job creation has not crossed the zero line in over 2 years. Government (including healthcare and education) and manufacturing (a large firm activity) are providing what few jobs are created. The number of owners with unfilled (hard to fill) openings fell two points to 9 percent of all firms, historically a weak showing.
Overall, the job creation picture is still bleak. Poor sales and uncertainty continue to hold back any commitments to growth, hiring or capital spending. As can be seen in the chart below, job creation plans have been running far below comparable quarters in the recovery from two other major recessions. The May figure is 1 percent, it’s above the ‘0’ line but still weak."
Leo you must have a nurse that gives you sunshine enemas. Good for you!
Robert Reich's Blog US is falling Into a double-dip recessionhttp://www.csmonitor.com/Money/Robert-Reich-s-Blog/2010/0605/US-is-falli...
Incidentally Robert Schiller thinks double dip has an increased chance, same with Sri Kumar, Nouriel Roubini...but if Canada, who clearly has no housing bubble and is unbiased about their economy (sarcasm) says no double dip then it must be so.
If there was a double dip though I think they'd be in a better position than the U.S. but that is different topic.
Maybe one morning you'll realize the brand of sunshine being pumped is not your brand but govt. cheese.
Increased speculation of a double-dip recessionhttp://www.benzinga.com/10/06/310818/increased-speculation-of-a-double-d...
Service data revive recession fearshttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d68af40c-6f70-11df-9f43-00144feabdc0.html
Love your optimism Leo, but the US government is doing everything it can to discourage hiring, from tax policy to Obamacare to an absurdly high minimum wage to product liability and antitrust to threats of huge increases in energy prices through cap and trade. Economics is about incentives and the risk/reward ratio is very high right now. Also, 1.9 million graduates about to enter the labor force, most with minimal real world skills.
Like Greek bonds, don't be a buyer of this kool-aid.
I prefer if we can engage in a serious discussion over fundamentals. Please leave your personal anecdotes/emotions/feelings towards me (lol) out of the equation. Trust me, Rosie et al. will never admit that you can't have a US double-dip with the wage bill growing at a 5% annual clip. They prefer looking at Euro woes to bolster their bearish views.
Ok, color me ignorant.
WTF is a wage bill?
=The sum of all employees wages.
(un)Employement level just indicates how many people are employed, but not how much money they made.