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As I Have Promised The Tablet Pricing Wars Have Commenced, Targeting Apple’s iPad 2 Which Is Not Even For Sale Yet…

Reggie Middleton's picture




 

The pricing wars in tablets have started already, and the current
category leader (Apple’s iPad 2) is the target of many, though it isn’t
even available for sale yet! The natural economic result of said actions
is margin compression, as I have alluded to in many of my previous
posts – most recently Steve Jobs Calls End Of the PC, We Call The End Of The Fat Margin Tablet – Including The Pretty iPad, With Proof! and starting with but including:

Well, with a hat tip to UK BoomBustBlogger Frank, we see the threat
of margin compression for the iPad 2 – before it is even launched! The
UK Metro reports:

As we reported on Thursday last week, the WiFi-only version of the Xoom came within 99 pence of the price of the equivalent iPad, with a pre-order price from PC World of £499.99.

And now that’s been repeated with the 3G version, which has just gone up for pre-order at Carphone Warehouse
for £599.99 – once again, just 99p more than the equivalent iPad (the
Xoom has 32GB of storage as standard, while the iPad offers 16GB, 32Gb
and 64GB versions.)

And, according to Carphone Warehouse, they’ll also throw in a charging dock worth £35.

While the UK prices for the iPad 2
haven’t been confirmed yet, Apple have said that it will cost the same
as the original iPad in the US – so it’s likely to also stay the same in
the UK. The recent VAT rise could potentially bump the iPad 2’s price
up slightly, which would mean that the Xoom would undercut its price.

What makes this so interesting is that the Xoom is effectively a much
better buy than the iPad from a hardware perspective at the same price
point. This flies directly in the face of
many “expert” pundits  who hypothesized that Apple has bought up the
supply chain rendering competitors unable to compete on price. Well,
uhmmm…. It actually looks to be the other way around here. Comparing the
iPad 2 (which is a slick device, but more aptly the ipad 1.5
incremental upgrade), to the Xoom, let’s turn to a Gizmodo article that
pretty much sums up my thoughts, except for one understandable error…

… So how do the iPad 2 and Android’s best tablet to date, the Motorola Xoom, compare in specs? And when does it matter?

They’re both using customized chips based around 1GHz dual-core processors, wrapped up with hardy graphics chips. The Motorola Xoom’s Nvidia Tegra 2
has a dual-core heart of ARM’s Cortex A9, which is very probably the
soul of the iPad 2’s A5 chip too. The GeForce graphics bundled in the Tegra 2 are formidable; presumably, so are the iPad 2’s, especially if it’s using PowerVR SGX543 graphics, as has been reported.
In processing and graphics power, it stands to reason—at least until a
proper teardown—that the iPad 2 and Xoom are about equally capable. The
Xoom is verrrry fast, and that seems to be what people thought about the iPad 2 yesterday. Speed and its proper application matters as much as, if not more than, anything else.

The iPad 2’s memory situation is still officially a mystery,
which is deeply unfortunate. RAM isn’t an idle spec: It’s deeply
indicative of how well it’ll multitask, and—this is a huge deal—how well
things like Safari will work. If it’s got 512MB, it should be okay. The
Xoom’s got 1GB. The Xoom multitasks, flipping between apps and running
tons of tabs in the browser, like a champ. And the multitasking
interface for Android 3.0 makes it feel faster still.

A lot of the Xoom’s other numbers are
bigger than the iPad 2’s. The screen is larger, with more pixels. It’s
10.1 inches, with the 1280×800 resolution delivering 150ppi, to the iPad
2’s 1024×768 screen, which offers 136ppi. So text on the Xoom can be
slightly crisper. The Xoom’s cameras are better too, at least on paper.
The rear camera shoots 5-megapixel photos, while the front is 2MP.
(Neither are particularly impressive in practice, though.) The iPad 2’s
rear camera shoots 720p video like the Xoom, but the stills are lower
resolution. The front camera is only VGA (640×480). (Does that mean
they’ll be
less impressive? The iPod touch’s very similar-sounding camera was no showstopper, but the iPhone
4’s 5-megapixel camera outshot 8-megapixel cameras in other phones.)
The Xoom will have more Gees too, when it’s upgraded to 4G on Verizon.
The iPad 2 is theoretically faster for now on AT&T with 3G. Does all that make the Xoom automatically better than the iPad 2?

To a certain set of people, yes.
What’s key, though, is that the Xoom—along with any other tablet—doesn’t
outclass the iPad on any of the specs that Apple clearly thinks are
most important. Processing power is (probably just about) even. The
screen resolution is smaller, but the iPad display’s proportions make it
more flexible than the Xoom—it’s truly designed to be used in portrait
or landscape orientation, while the Xoom is almost 100 percent a
landscape-oriented device. Battery life is better [
Reggie
edit: I don't think this is true, it appears they are comparable, but
only real world side by side testing will reveal the truth
]. Most important of all to Apple (and it’s betting, to consumers), the iPad is cheaper. Everything else, beyond the screen and speed—like the cameras—are just good enough. Not amazing.

You see, everyone assumed the iPad would be cheaper, but this is not
the case. As for the actual hardware being purchased, you are getting
less for more. The key goal for Apple’s management is to keep the focus
away from performance and capability and focus where the other
companies’ management has historically been lacking, aesthetics and
“cool factor”. I actually believe Apple can pull that off, but the risk
here is that any success will likely be short lived. A big part of being
cool is being able to do things, and this next crop of tablets and
smartphones can simply do more things than the Apple products currently
on tap. The primary reason is the rapid refresh cycle of Android
hardware and software. An Android quarter is analogous to an Apple year,
simply because of the sheer magnitude of the development and research
forces being brought to bear by all of those companies under the
guidance of Google.

In addition, as a first attempt, I must admit that the management at
Motorola is truly jumping up off of their collective asses and
executing. Don’t believe that the management of Motorola’s myriad
Android competitors will not follow suit. Cnet’s Eric Franklin has put together a list of soldiers looking to fight on the front lines of the Tablet Commoditization wars, and the result is DOZENS of Honeycomb powered tablets coming out with fresh technology and ever lowering price points.
For a precursor, simply look at how aggressive Motorola has been with
its powerhouse Xoom, then realize that it is just the first in an army
of competitors.

Motorola Xoom Apple iPad 2 Custom Nook Color – Under $300, can outrun the current iPad!

Plus about 3 dozen other Honeycomb based competitors in less then 3
months!!! And to further put the myth of Apple owning the supply
channel, thus preventing any competitors from coming in at competitor
price points, let me present the sub $300 tablet that blows the doors
off of the iPad – performance wise – as excerpted from Steve Jobs Calls End Of the PC, We Call The End Of The Fat Margin Tablet – Including The Pretty iPad, With Proof!

 

If the iPad 2 is facing this type of price pressure and competition before its launch with only one true competing Android tablet
on sale, simply imagine what this space will look like next quarter
when these other guys jump into the mix (courtesy Cnet’s Eric Franklin Franking)

Name OS Price Release date Screen size
Acer Iconia Tab A100 Android 3.0 Unannounced April 7-inch
Acer Iconia Tab A500 Android 3.0 Unannounced April 10-inch
Asus Slider Android 3.0 $500-$800 May 10.1-inch
Asus Transformer Android 3.0 $400-$700 April 10.1-inch
Asus MeMO Android 3.0 $500-$700 September 7-inch
Dell Streak 7 Android 2.2 $200-$450 April 7-inch
HP TouchPad WebOS 3.0 Unannounced Summer 2011 9.7-inch
HTC Flyer Android 2.3 Unannounced June 7-inch
Maylong Universe M-150 Android 2.2 $100 April 7-inch
Motorola Xoom Android 3.0 $600-$800 Available now 10.1-inch
RIM Blackberry Playbook QNX OS $500 (16GB) April 7-inch
Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 Android 3.0 Unannounced Spring 10.1-inch
T-Mobile G-Slate Android 3.0 Unannounced Spring 8.9-inch
Toshiba Tablet Android 3.0 Unannounced June 10.1-inch
Viewsonic Viewpad 7 Android 2.2 $415-470 April 7-inch
Viewsonic ViewPad G Tablet Android 2.2 $580 April 10.1-inch
Vizio Tablet Android 3.0 Unannounced April

8-inch

Keep in mind that the state prices will probably start dropping in
near real time at launch as well. Just as I said on CNBC last year,
margin compression and falling prices are the terms du jour…

And this just in, hat tip to BoomBustBlogger Isotope19, via Droidlife:

WiFi-only Motorola Xoom appears at Sam’s Club, bearing $539 price?

Let’s put this into perspective. Motorola had announced before launch that the wifi version of the Xoom will come in at $600
about 3 weeks ago. With $600 being the MSRP, deep discounter Sam’s Club
is already selling it at $539. This not a knock of or a poor quality,
low market device. The Xoom is currently the hardware and technology
king of tablets. Compared to the yet to be released, but already
comparatively expensive iPad 2 at $599, you get a significant hardware
and flexibility boost. One can be rest assured that Motorola has another
tablet sitting in the lab readying for release before year end in order
to push the price of the Xoom down to claim the lower and of the
channel with very capable hardware. Even if they don’t, here comes Asus,
Acer, Dell, Samsung, LG, Viewsonic, Vizio, Sony,,,, the list is very,
very long and getting much longer – not to mention non-android
contenders HP, RIM, and Microsoft, et. al.
That’s a lot of damn competition to push prices down even further.
Keep in mind lest I repeat it again, the iPad 2 hasn’t even launched
yet! If Apple participates in this price cutting competition, tech
consumers better prepare to be rained upon by all types of interesting
features and capabilities at price points they didn’t even dream of a
year or two ago. If Apple doesn’t join the margin destruction fight,
they will be probably be taken off the tablet top perch by Google within
8 to 12 quarters. Alas, I believe they will participate in some form or
fashion. It will be very interesting to see how they go about this.
I have been through these scenarios with BoomBustBlog subscribes in explicit detail.

The table of contents outlines how we have broken Google down into distinct businesses and identified both the individual business models and the potential revenue streams, as well as  valuation for each business line.


Page 57 of the analysis shows a sensitivity table which outlines the various scenarios that can come into play and how it will change our outlook and valuation opinion.

 

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Mon, 03/07/2011 - 21:24 | 1028205 hotkarlandthecl...
hotkarlandtheclevelandsteamers's picture

Reggie, what was the share price of AAPL when you began this argument the first time $240 or so....

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 21:22 | 1028204 hotkarlandthecl...
hotkarlandtheclevelandsteamers's picture

Reggie, what was the share price of AAPL when you began this argument the first time $240 or so....

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 19:03 | 1027783 brandy night rocks
brandy night rocks's picture

You're looking at this wrong, Reggie.  You're talking about Apple, man.  You can't approach it logically.

 

People will pay a huge premium for 5-year-old technology as long as it comes wrapped in a shiny interface, is backed by a very hip marketing plan, and constantly reassures them that they're part of the special crowd.  As long as the world is full of irrational people, and Apple has some of the best advertising talent around, Apple will always have a strong market share.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 18:49 | 1027749 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

It's easy to see who wull win this battle:  China.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 18:42 | 1027717 G Mann
G Mann's picture

Great write up Reggie and as a daily user of (heavily modded) Android devices I agree.  But a release date of April for the Viewsonic G tablet? at $580?  I got mine at Sears during December (2010) for $379 and I love it! (Of course after re-ROMing it.)  As you know it has the same chips as the Xoom, but less memory.  Go Android! Go XDA devs.!

 

P.S.  Your subtle mis-spellings and dyslexia crack me up in your articles....AOSP.....

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 17:47 | 1027528 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

Sorry- this article is not exactly correct

First, memory on ipad 2 is confirmed for 512

The price of Sam's club was from a training room and it display android 2.2 vs 3.0. ( in other words it's the dummy picture, vs the real deal)

IPad2 vs Xoom is a no brain-er. 

Xoom cant stand much against ipad 1 ( and i tested both).

Android 3.0 is not officially released and has plenty of  bugs. ( should be April release)

It was already discussed many times that hardware alone is not an indicator.

As of today Ipad is getting into the business environment , while android still trying to catch up to a regular consumer.

If we look for a longer trend like 1-2 years , i believe Android will outplay IOS ( but not in the near future).

Also you should point that Sinful fruit makes 30% from any application or magazine subscription.

Anyway to make it simple. Xoom is good on paper, Ipad is good in use. 

I have them both and use on daily bases due to nature of my work.

 

 

 

 

 

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 18:10 | 1027612 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

"

Anyway to make it simple. Xoom is good on paper, Ipad is good in use.  I have them both and use on daily bases due to nature of my work.

"

I beg to differ. I use both OS regularly, and tested the Xoom thoroughly. The IPAd one is not even in the same category as the Xoom. As a master of fact, the Nook outperforms my iPad for walk around daily use. The IPad is better around the house where portability and speed don't mean as much.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 17:39 | 1027486 Fat Ass
Fat Ass's picture

Wait - I've thought that out more.

This time, Reggie neglected to mention he was hopelessly wrong on the topic last time.

So probably, NEXT time, he'll neglect to mention he was hopelessly wrong on the topic THIS time.

And so on.

It's funny when otherwise smart people get emotional about something.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 17:34 | 1027475 DutchZeroPrinter
DutchZeroPrinter's picture

It's the combination of hardware AND software. Great hardware specs is only one side of the equation. There were mp3 players with more hardware features than an iPod.

And Apple isn't in the game of moving the most boxes. See how well that went for Dell. Apple is selling an experience.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 18:04 | 1027596 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

But honeycomb is better than iOS! I'm typing this on an iPad and I'm about to switch to my android device.... Seriously!

Apple will most like optimize iOS for the tablet experience for iPAd three which will come out much quicker than many think. There really is not much differentiation between the iPhone OS and the iPad OS. It becomes quite obvious after using a purely tablet OS such as Honeycomb.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 17:35 | 1027473 Fat Ass
Fat Ass's picture

Reggie was completely wrong about this last time.

He'll be completely wrong this time.

Maybe he'll be completely wrong next time, too!

It's funny when otherwise smart people get emotional about something.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 17:56 | 1027563 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

Actually, I believe I was completely right. What OS has majority marketshare now?

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 17:09 | 1027379 irishlink
irishlink's picture

Great work as usual. Market Truth is right on the button. It's all about cool.We consumers are such a fickle ,sheeple lot. If Justin Beaver decides to use an Android offering Apple is in BIG trouble! 

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 17:07 | 1027359 No-1-U-Know
No-1-U-Know's picture

 

we see the threat of margin compression for the iPad 2 – before it is even launched!

 

Wrong: there is margin compression for Motorola, which must lower its prices because the Xoom is off to a sluggish start on the market, thus making it unable to compete with the iPad 2 at its former price point.

 

What makes this so interesting is that the Xoom is effectively a much better buy than the iPad from a hardware perspective at the same price point.

 

 

That depends which elements of hardware a buyer values most. If it’s raw horsepower, the Xoom might have a slight edge. Thinness and portability favor the iPad. Most buyers will favor the latter.

 

The Xoom’s cameras are better too, at least on paper. The rear camera shoots 5-megapixel photos, while the front is 2MP. (Neither are particularly impressive in practice, though.)

 

Key sentence: "Neither are particularly impressive in practice, though." What good are superior specs if they don’t translate to superior usability?

 

The key goal for Apple’s management is to keep the focus away from performance and capability and focus where the other companies’ management has historically been lacking, aesthetics and “cool factor”.

 

The key goal for Apple’s competitors is to keep the focus away from actual performance and usability and draw attention to raw specs, which are secondary to what most consumers are looking for: powerful, yet easy-to-use devices.

 

the result is DOZENS of Honeycomb powered tablets coming out with fresh technology and ever lowering price points.

 

Thus making the Android tablets a dime a dozen, while the iPad will remain unique.

 

to further put the myth of Apple owning the supply channel, thus preventing any competitors from coming in at competitor price points, let me present the sub $300 tablet that blows the doors off of the iPad

 

Are these selling at the rate of 5 million per month, like the iPad? How big is B&N’s profit margin on the Nook? Does B&N take an upfront hit in the hopes of making it up with ebook sales? Its inferior price neither proves nor disproves that Apple owns the supply chain.

If the iPad 2 is facing this type of price pressure and competition before its launch with only one true competing Android tablet on sale, simply imagine what this space will look like next quarter when these other guys jump into the mix

You have it backwards: it's the competition that's feeling pressure. Lacking differentiation between them, the other guys will be reduced to competing with one another on price, while the iPad 2 will keep capturing the lion’s share of tablet profits for Apple.

 

If Apple doesn’t join the margin destruction fight, they will be probably be taken off the tablet top perch by Google within 8 to 12 quarters.

 

Since Apple won’t have to join the margin destruction fight because it will continue to market a polished, powerful, easier-to-use product, it will keep generating the greatest tablet profits.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 18:02 | 1027585 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

Zooms are sold out practically everywhere. How do you feel that they are having a problem moving them?

If you listen to the Motorola CEO, he was quite prepared for Margin compression on the highest end products and rapid development cycles for he, like everybody else knows that is where Apple's weak point lies.

Listen, paying a lot for portable computing equipment will get very old very fast. Any company reliant on fat margins to keep going in this space will get in big trouble.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 18:39 | 1027705 No-1-U-Know
No-1-U-Know's picture

 

Zooms are sold out practically everywhere. How do you feel that they are having a problem moving them?

They may or may not be sold out, but that says little about the Xoom's success. What was the initial stock? Selling out 10 items is a lot easier than selling out 500. Let's wait for hard sales figures to gauge its success.

If you listen to the Motorola CEO, he was quite prepared for Margin compression on the highest end products and rapid development cycles for he, like everybody else knows that is where Apple's weak point lies. 

Listen, paying a lot for portable computing equipment will get very old very fast. Any company reliant on fat margins to keep going in this space will get in big trouble.

You fail to account for the historical precedent that Apple is generating superior margins in phones and, in a much more mature market, computers. Using the same model, why wouldn't history repeat itself? When prices come down, more will be enticed to buy Androids, but many will still be willing to pay a premium for Apple's offerings. As such, your contention that Apple must change its ways to compete is misguided. Yes, Android will win a sizable chunk of the market, perhaps even a majority share, but Apple will own the most profitable slice. Both Apple and Google will win. The Android hardware makers, on the other hand, will be fighting for survival.
Mon, 03/07/2011 - 18:44 | 1027734 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

You're recou ting only part of the history. Apple pulled ahead in PCs when Msft messed up with Vista. Msft would have never released bloatware such as Vista if it had more competition, alas it didn't and the rest is history.

Apple generated wide margins in phones because they had no reall competition in mobile OS and app stores. Google has changed that and apple has not only lost pole position in growth rate in the US, ut globally as well. What makes it more dangerous is tha tAndroid has not only captured top growth but top absolute users as well which makes them the largest target market for ads, services and software in the world. That is an enviable position that would have prevented Apples outsized profits in 2007 had it existed.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 19:05 | 1027795 No-1-U-Know
No-1-U-Know's picture

You're recou ting only part of the history. Apple pulled ahead in PCs when Msft messed up with Vista. Msft would have never released bloatware such as Vista if it had more competition, alas it didn't and the rest is history.

Miscrosoft's woes are only a minor factor in the Mac's resurgence. Superior design, wider distribution, especially through Apple's own stores, the iPod/iPhone halo effect, and iTunes and the App Store are much more important. All these have grown greater since 2007. As such, the iPad is positioned for even greater success.

Apple generated wide margins in phones because they had no reall competition in mobile OS and app stores. Google has changed that and apple has not only lost pole position in growth rate in the US, ut globally as well. What makes it more dangerous is tha tAndroid has not only captured top growth but top absolute users as well which makes them the largest target market for ads, services and software in the world. That is an enviable position that would have prevented Apples outsized profits in 2007 had it existed.

Compelling argument, but it fails to account for the fact that Apple still generates outsized profits, in spite of Android: http://www.asymco.com/2011/01/31/fourth-quarter-mobile-phone-industry-ov....

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 18:20 | 1027654 tgatliff
tgatliff's picture

I really like you Reggie, and always enjoy your very intelligent discussions, but you might not be looking at this particular situation correctly.

Apple did not crush the iPod market because they had superior technology.  They outperformed because they had a complete end to end solution, including device, stores, etc. 

Also, the Android/iPhone argument is not really completely valid simply because the data clearly shows that Android played perfectly to the limitation of the iPhone only running on at&t.  

Finally, one thing more to consider.  Apple's strategy is much more than one single device.  If you spend any time in your local Apple store you will see what I am talking about.  Even during the "recession/depression" their stores were wall to wall people who started with the iPhone and now own iPads/iMacs/Macbooks/AppleTV/Time Capsules.  The sheer loyalty of their users is pretty awe inspiring to see...

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 18:33 | 1027694 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

First of all, I'm glad you like me:-)

You aren't looking at the whole picture though. Android outsells iOS worldwide, so the ATT argument simply doesn't hold. I am actually using an iPad to type this response and I spend a lot of time in the various Apple stores throughout NYC just to keep abreast of what's going on, such as the 700 employees at the NYC flagship store to enable it to run 24/7.

I have several iOS and Android devices and have absolutely no emotional al attachment to either. I just got my frost Android device in June. android run circles around there Apple counterparts while simultaneously offering carriers and hardware partners superior revenue shares and payouts. Doesn't that sound dangerous to you? Android also now has superior reach in the us and worldwide, as well as more lax revenue sharing for subscriptions, developers and ad agencies. Doesn't that sound dangerous to you?

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 17:27 | 1027443 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

There is nothing particularly unique about the iPad or iPad2.  Most of the technology in the iPad2 is already dated, meaning I can guarantee you there will be a iPad3 on the market before Xmas 2011.

Secondly Apple has a small problem regarding technolgy patents going forward, they are not licensing the Pixel Qi screens while Android tablets are already available with the superb technology.  Pixel Qi will one day be on every eBook/tablet/cellphone in the developed world, it's that good.

Stock Motorola Xoom is a clunker from what I've seen, however it's using NVidia Tegra 2 unlocked, easily overclocked to run twin 1.5ghz, which makes it's incredibly fast, able to process 1080p video without a hiccup, and it runs Flash, which is sorta important in real world web browsing...

Also for business use, you have ACCESS to the underlying file system in Android devices, which is a must for me.

Again, ARM, Nvidia, and Pixel Qi Corporation are the real winners here.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 18:13 | 1027614 tgatliff
tgatliff's picture

Having access to the OS is not always a good thing.  If you like "rooting" the device, go for it, but the vast majority of people (including myself) dont care about such things.  I just want the device to work every time. 

Also, I think you are still comparing superior technology to success.  Apple's iOS strategy is rather clear, which is leveraging all of their devices into one interconnected network.  Airplay for example is very seemless across all of their devices.  Also, I am running the OSX 10.7 (Lion) right right and it is rather clear that they are preparing it to merge with iOS.   Things like tabs are now becoming sliders, and scrollbars on OSX are now nearly non-existent.

 

In short... Even Steve J. commented in his keynote address that they care more about experience than technology.  Judging from apps demos like the iPad Garage Band, they are making a very compelling argument in my mind.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 17:59 | 1027576 No-1-U-Know
No-1-U-Know's picture

There is nothing particularly unique about the iPad or iPad2.

Any other tablets run iOS?

Secondly Apple has a small problem regarding technolgy patents going forward, they are not licensing the Pixel Qi screens while Android tablets are already available with the superb technology.  Pixel Qi will one day be on every eBook/tablet/cellphone in the developed world, it's that good.

Apple will be able to license any technology it deems important.

Stock Motorola Xoom is a clunker from what I've seen, however it's using NVidia Tegra 2 unlocked, easily overclocked to run twin 1.5ghz, which makes it's incredibly fast, able to process 1080p video without a hiccup,

Overclocking might appeal to geeks, but it's out of the great majority's reach, making this point moot for market success.

and it runs Flash, which is sorta important in real world web browsing...

It might eventually run Flash (http://www.tabletpcreview.com/default.asp?newsID=2001&news=motorola+xoom...), but most important sites offer alternative video formats. Apple has decided that battery life is more critical to the user experience than Flash.

Also for business use, you have ACCESS to the underlying file system in Android devices, which is a must for me.

A must for you, but is it a must for others?

Just like Reggie, you make the mistake of projecting your purchasing criteria to the wider market. Most consumers are not technically-inclined, such that rooting a tablet and overclocking its processor are way above their heads. They want something that works out of the box, that's secure and low maintenance, and the iPad is currently superior in those regards.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 18:22 | 1027650 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

You are preaching marketing material in lieu of fact. IPads are far from secure. They were able to be hacked by clicking a picture on a website. That's how I jail broke mine. Till this day apple has not been able to close all of the exploit holes that hackers use to iPhones and iPads. Remember, Androids were designed to be open source, apple is trying to keep iOS closed and cant. The geek stuff you mention such as over clocking keeps legacy devices alive I. The market, thus geeks can sell more apps and services through them. Thinking ahead, that's why MSFt a Owed so much piracy on their OS, to ensure that their apps and OS will be as widespread as possible. Initially, only geeks pirated. Things are different in ad supported ecosystems. Critical mass can easily shut number two and three in the market place. That was the case with Apple until Android appeared on the scene.

You always want to keep geeks happy because the mass market usually follows their lead.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 18:52 | 1027756 No-1-U-Know
No-1-U-Know's picture

Sure, there will always be security holes. The open nature of Android makes it more vulnerable, however. The recent discovery of malicious apps in the Android market provides compelling proof (http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2381390,00.asp).

 The geek stuff you mention such as over clocking keeps legacy devices alive...

Fine, but what percentage of consumers are able to hack their devices? Most only know how to press buttons, making this point irrelevant to market success.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 19:01 | 1027787 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

The app store issues have nothing to do.with how secure the OS is. New businesses have the opportunity to Bing n life to old hardware. Through an open and moddqbl Coast. This is a wasted discussion because the marketshar battle has alrwdy plays out in the smartphone arena here tablets were counted for iOS yet none really existed for Android and Android still won. Ho do you think those bumblers will look now that Android has multiple tablets offerings?

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 19:29 | 1027850 No-1-U-Know
No-1-U-Know's picture

The app store issues have nothing to do.with how secure the OS is.

OK. It's not an OS issue per se, but it's definitely a relevant platform issue.

This is a wasted discussion because the marketshar battle has alrwdy plays out in the smartphone arena here tablets were counted for iOS yet none really existed for Android and Android still won. Ho do you think those bumblers will look now that Android has multiple tablets offerings?

The discussion is pertinent because Android has so far pulled ahead in smartphone market share in part because of its wider availability. Might the iPhone catch up when it gets closer in carrier distribution?

Also, as I've pointed out before, you wrongfully give top billing to market share, when profit share is the ultimate measure of success. Just like in computers, if Apple keeps reaping the greatest profits, in spite of an inferior market share, it will certainly have won.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 17:02 | 1027357 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

As always, excellent analysis Reggie and agree Apple needs to keep the cool factor because once they lose that..... game over!

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 16:59 | 1027353 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I don't know.

Apple from a marketing point of view still has the edge.

The competition needs spotlight that makes it cool and the price needs to be 100 dollars lower before it can catch up.

Recently we've launched a new brand in the company I work for and the brand managers where selling it like a A brand. The costs where a bit higher to produce because of the lower volume but the savings came from marketing and sales&distribution costs.

Because of the investments, it's not done to say anything bad about it, but I just had to. You can only take marketshare by bombing the consumer with marketing campaigns. Why would they want your product when there are cool brands that offer the same. 40 or 50 bucks won't make the difference.

Why do you think kids spend 600 dollars on a Iphone? Well, because all of their friends do and everybody on television have one.

A HTC is not cool, it's cheap.

Sure, Apple will lose some marketshare. Maybe 10 to 20% but in the process the newer brands won't make it.

They'll be hit by unforseen brands.

And there is also the psychological aspect. People who had the former versions will buy the newer. Because they already have a collection of apps which they bought. They won't switch that fast.

I'm not a big fan of apple but I do have almost every product they sell. Iphone Ipad Imac. I just need them for my work. I won't swithc that fast either.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 17:52 | 1027519 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

Htc phones are priced on parity with iPhones and sell like hotcakes. Htc Is a better phone manufacturer than apple. The arguments you are using for tablets were the same that were made fir smartphines this time last year and android has smoked the competition, Apple included. The race is even more crowded at the launch of the iPad than it ever was with the iPhone.

notice all of the typos, I'm typing this on my iPad :-)

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 18:43 | 1027728 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

I have a droid incredible and half the time I can't even end a phone call, most people i know have the same problem.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 05:58 | 1028991 Ted K
Ted K's picture

You're 40!!!!!! You're 40!!!! DAMNIT!!!!!!! 

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 16:58 | 1027348 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

Timely update Reggie.

First off, If you have ported the Nook COlor to 2.2, you can install Android 3.0 now in under 15 minutes.  The cooked ROM is posted on xda-developers ready for download.  It is stable, saw it used on Friday.

 

Secondly, go get the NotionInk Adam Android Tablet and realize they have the best hardware in the market inthe entire world.... if only they'd could get their production and shipping delays sorted out before everyone sours on their small start-up opertation and brand name....  those guys might be ahead of their time, sorta like Xybernaut was in 1999.

For everyone else out there, check into

http://www.androidtablets.net/

largest collection of English language info available on ALL makes and models of Android tablets...

As Reggie noted, there is a huge collection of new tablets coming out in April... and the NotionInk Adam should be widely available outside of Asia by then.

Android 3.0 HoneyComb + ARM dual core processors +high end capacitive touchscreen = IPad2 killers.

Android dev platform is free to D/L and install, as compared to Apple, and it's dead simple to write apps for, working on writing one now...  expect the quantity (though maybe not quality) of apps available on Android to skyrocket in the coming months.

If I could only invent the next AngryBirds, I'll be rich I tell ya, RICH!!

cheers,

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 17:49 | 1027544 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

Notion is full of bright people but they are undercapitalized and probably need to get a logistics expert on board. The product is cool, though.

As for Honeycomb, it's not ready for daily use on the Nook yet since it was potted from the SDK, not actual ASOP code, thus too many things are not working. Once it is ready, maybe a few weeks from now, my son will be offering it for sale on 200 dollar plus tablets.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 16:54 | 1027335 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Just wanted to drop by and say I made all those cats using my Funny Cat iPaD App 99 cents and a bargain.

Cheers ;-)

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 16:54 | 1027333 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

pardon my ignorance, but what does a tablet do better than a laptop?

my laptop has a terabyte of memory

tablets are in the 16-64 gig range...and this is better because....?

 

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 05:56 | 1028988 Ted K
Ted K's picture

The main advantage of a tablet over a laptop is you can go to the trendy coffee shop with it held at your side, then sit there playing with it scouting for chics with a subliminal sign over your head that reads "Look I'm one of those apes who buys the latest useless toy that came down the pipeline." Just don't forget to put on your Charlie Sheen "I'm an eternal loser" T-shirt

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 18:28 | 1027680 aerojet
aerojet's picture

Niche market here maybe, but my 1-year old can't rip the keys off of the non-existent keyboard while my wife chases him around the house.  She entertains herself by doing IM, e-mail, web surfing, video, etc.  I can see us buying a wifi-only tablet if it's the right price since keyboard & mouse are such a drag when you are walking around.  Kids broke the touchpad mouse buttons, too.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 17:14 | 1027389 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

A tablet (might) have a longer battery life, and has a touchscreen.

The next group of Android tablets (and some Windows tablets) will have touchscreens at realistic pricing for mass markets, the Asus tablets looking to be the sexiest ones right now.

An 8" touchscreen tablet costs US$450ish, a 10" touchscreen laptop costs $450 to $700 but uses a slow Intel Atom CPU... and runs a clunky Microsoft Touch Pack for Windows 7 with few if any daily software packages fully interoperable with the touchscreen display.

Asus Android tablets - Slider and Transformer

ASUS Eee PC T101MT - Running Win7 Pro 32bit

If you reinstall Win7 using a slimmed down win7 installation, or install Xubuntu or EEEPC netbook remix there will be a Very slight difference in user experience between the EEE PC netbok and the Android tablets.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 16:59 | 1027350 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Use one for a few days and you will understand. I liken the experience to moving from the DOS interface to a mouse-driven GUI. Until you experience it, you will not see the advantages.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 16:55 | 1027317 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Let's start a price war with Apple, they only have $60B in cash!

(You do realize Reggie, over a year ago Jobs commented that Apple could lower its selling price on the iPad considerably if needed? )

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 17:05 | 1027366 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

Android tablet developers are making a higher markup selling tablets than cell phones and PDAs, their business models are already best in breed for high volume low profit electronics.

These companies like HTC, Motorola, Archos, ViewSonic, Acer can for the time being get higher ROI in tablets than their other product lines, and still severely undercut Apple's price points.  The Android manufacturers push almost all software costs off their balance sheets, something Apple can not do, and the reason Apple will not be able to compete on a cost basis.

The winners in all of this will be capacitive screen manufacturers btw... their stocks will fly as touchscreens become as ubiquitious as cell phones have become.  Severe shortage, Apple rumorly has 60% of world capacity under contract, and there are dozens of manufacturers vying to secure supplies for the two next generations of tablets and cell phones.

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 16:41 | 1027295 chopper read
chopper read's picture

great interview on CNBS, Reggie.

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