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I Hope You Were Not One of Those Buying
Monday's market action saw some of the strongest
buying amongst the Rydex market timers in over 10 years. Oops!
Or
to put it another way, I hope you were not one of those buying the market on
Monday like the Rydex market timers. But if the Rydex asset data is any
indication, it was likely that you were. Oops!!
The
Rydex market timers represent a small segment of the investing world.
Nonetheless, their actions remain a useful window into the mindset of investors. In
addition, the Rydex asset data is sentiment data based upon real asset flows
not an investor opinion poll. By tracking the money, we get to see how
these investors are placing their market bets. Figure 1 is a daily chart
of the SP Depository Receipts (symbol: SPY). The indicator in the lower
panel looks at the ratio of the assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds
relative to the assets in the bearish and leveraged funds. Not only is
this indicator useful to determine which direction investors are leaning, but
we also get a sense of conviction to that bet because they are utilizing
leverage.
Figure 1. SPY/ daily
After
Monday, the value of the Rydex bullish and leveraged to bearish and leveraged
ratio was 3.70. This was the highest value this ratio had since the rally
began in March, 2009, and it was the highest value since 2001. As I
stated in the comments to our Premium Content Service:
"These market
timers are so confident in their market outlook that they are expecting
only one outcome," and I went on to pose the following question:
"When have you known the market to ever be a sure thing?"
My
brief but full comments from Monday evening's report are posted below.
Figure 2. My Comments
The
Premium Content report is a daily report looking at the Rydex asset data.
We have over 10 years of data covering 2 bull and 2 bear markets. A
subscription is $104/ year, and it will be the best $104 you will spend on
market data. For details, click here.
You
may access Monday evening's report below.
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What kind of stupid microsoft-only msoffice junk is that in the article? Regardless of the content, can't you at least format an article in a standards compliant way, that renders okay regardless of what OFFICE application one has installed? Requiring a specific MS Office version to read an article on a webpage, is about the most braindead things i've seen yet.
All that shite like Rydex is only out there to trap the next bigger fool.
Tyler, seriously...I know your tired, and the last guy you hired was writing articles after finishing his homework for Econ 101, but really, stop it with these worthless guest pieces.
I too get bored when ZH doesn't have new fodder for me every 10 minutes, but it has made me search out other blogs that are worthwhile.
Tyler, we love what you do, but please, we don't need these peddlers of $99 stock picker reports posting on this priceless website.
A humble devotee,
CP
Step 1: Note the author's name who writes articles you don't like
Step 2: Don't read articles from that author
Problem solved.
And in your 19 week presence at ZH you have determined that whining will change anything that goes on around here? Sheesh.
It will continue, same as it ever was.
Agreed!...Maybe if enough of us state our disgust, something will be done.
boy george, does this mean we should sell?
hahaha!
The lemmings were gathered at the edge of the cliff waiting for a signal.
No shit Sherlock!
The longs are bleeding from every orifice for the sake of the shorts who are reaping huge gains. In the COMEX or that should be Crimex, JPM and friends have had their roasting balls saved just in time! In Blythe's case - the same goes! No markets anymore - just interventions/manipulations.
BTFD Back up the truck anytime. Don't be late to the loading dock!
OutLookingIn: Just buy physical and play with what you can afford to lose on leverage. You're too big to fail if you're a MEGA BANK by defacto the other side of the trade is too small to win.