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IceCap Asset Management: "Straight From The Horse's Mouth"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From IceCap Asset Management:

While the first round of bailouts started with the banks themselves, the next round spread to the very same countries who bailed out the banks to start with. Fast forward (a mere 2 years) to today and Greece, Ireland and Portugal are now showing the fissures within the European system. The next round of bailouts has the potential to crack the fissures wide open. So, here we go with round 3 of European bailouts which will consist of bailing out Greece, then Ireland and then Portugal yet again. Yes, this is the classic definition of insanity at its best. The risk now however with round 3 is that the Greeks have now informally played the “we’re leaving the Euro” card. The Irish and the Portuguese will watch closely to see if the Greeks get what they want. If the Greeks are successful (and they will be), the Irish and the Portuguese will demand even better terms for their bailouts. We do not blame anyone for becoming dizzy with this ongoing story. All you need to know is that the ride may continue for  a while longer, yet at some point, someone will leave the Euro. And when this door opens, the rush to the exits may surprise everyone.

Full report:

IceCap Asset Management Limited Global Markets May 2011

 

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Sun, 05/22/2011 - 17:43 | 1300535 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Wrong end of the horse speaking.

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 18:52 | 1300653 AnonymousAnarchist
Sun, 05/22/2011 - 17:43 | 1300542 Votewithabullet
Votewithabullet's picture

Straight from the horse's mouth. Fucking Mr Ed's mouth. More if's, when's and maybe's. " may continue for a while?" yet at some point"."may surprise everyone?" My five year old could have told you that shit.

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 17:49 | 1300547 Island_Dweller
Island_Dweller's picture

Although horse #'s 1, 2, 3, & 5 have compelling arguments, I'm putting my money on horse #4! Heed horse #4's words and act as if your government and central bank are planning on leaving you as the fall guy; because that IS their plan.

The more someone believes in their government or central bank to keep their currency sound, the more profound their ultimate loss will be.....

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 18:12 | 1300602 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

The more someone believes in their government or central bank to keep their currency sound, the more profound their ultimate loss will be....

+1, spot on

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 18:36 | 1300625 Forgiven
Forgiven's picture

Effing bravo!  So true Island Dweller.

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 17:54 | 1300552 silberblick
silberblick's picture

 

Follow the link below to find out why the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange must be seen and understood as an extension of the Chinese government and its long term goals, and consequently, why it will not help create an equitable or realistic price discovery mechanism for gold. Not for now anyway.

http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/why-hong-kong-exchange-will-disappoint.html

 

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 18:03 | 1300570 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

More bailouts? ...so much for the rules against bailouts!

what a bankrupt suicidal mess Europe is in... and we entrust these clowns and frauds with authority over society and commerce

there's got to be a better way

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 19:16 | 1300696 CH1
CH1's picture

Yeah, but it's forbidden.

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 19:48 | 1300752 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Good one!

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 18:15 | 1300587 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

What a waste of fucking words. Lets make it easy. Crisis= Bailouts = Taxpayer. What the fuck is so hard to figure out? The banks need money, The fed prints , "Gringo"  flips the bill. Done. Rally on.

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 18:11 | 1300590 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Duplicate

 

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 18:10 | 1300591 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Dup

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 18:11 | 1300596 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Thanks for forwarding this. I always like reading icecap's reports... informative, not too wordy and great sarcasm.

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 18:25 | 1300617 legal eagle
legal eagle's picture

Is this what Tiny Tim and Obombastic when they say they favor strong dollar? - helping to destroy the competition for reserve currency?

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 19:49 | 1300748 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

The euro area needs no help destroying their currency, or their neighborliness.

They can do it all by themselves.

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 18:46 | 1300647 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

EUR=TBTF trichet cant back down - soon to be painted into the ever increasingly crowded corner that B-52 Ben is in

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 19:44 | 1300741 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

If the germans will support it the ecb has about a trillion in slack the could monetize without too much inflation.

That is truly the only way out, but it violates the emu treaty. Of course they are already violating it anyway.

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 19:34 | 1300723 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

All i am saying is that the queen was over recently having a carefully co-ordinated visit, in Ireland, she spent a week here with a view to healing perceived old wounds, the first visit by a monarch in 100 years! She was well received too. With her came Cameron and William Hague, both of whom wrote articles in irish papers espousing the benefits of trade and even closer relationships going forward.

All i can assume is that Ireland are going to re-peg to the pound ASAP, and with it, ending the bullying by the ECB, and stick two fingers up at the whole sorry episode. Anyone know how one would go about positioning for that? (Apart from shorting the euro) I just have a gut feeling it's about to happen.

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 20:11 | 1300792 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

What a sorry state of affairs. The queen. Peg to the pound. It's all so disgusting.

~O~

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 22:02 | 1300954 Orly
Orly's picture

An interesting scenario.  I would suggest, though, that if the Irish were to go back to Britain, it would be Euro positive and Pound negative.

If the Europeans could get one of those monkeys off their backs with the UK picking up the tab for the transfer, then it would be a joyous day in Brussels, I think.  One would have to consider blowback and the domino effect because, undoubtedly, the Portuguese and Italians would find a way to complain about some unfair treatment or other.

What you may find, instead, is a whole bunch of coordinated moves coming all at once, so the net effect of one of them will be relatively muted.  For instance, the Irish could re-align with the Brits, the Greeks would default and peg the new drachma, while the ECB will say that they will basically monetise the debt of Portugal, Italy and Spain- just this one time (wink, wink...)- all in one gulp.

4X traders would be shell-shocked that day, I tell you.  Taken as a whole, it wouldn't surprise me if the volatile swings in currencies would be where they started before the announcement, once all the dust settles.  Now, that would be a vol trade in a roundabout!

:D

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 19:39 | 1300730 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

A recent euro poster pointed out an interesting concept.

They recognize problems sooner and get feistier than others. It is doybtful the japs will revolt even at 300% debt to gdp. We are fairly complacent in the usa too.

We will probably muddle thru due to our capacity to ignore our own fiscal and monetary problems longer than the europeans.

He who extends and pretends the longest wins the world!

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 19:39 | 1300731 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

2 bills making the rounds of Congress will essentially confiscate IRA and 401k balances.  Might even wind up as an Executive Order.  Be worried, guys and gals.  Either cash them out for the penalty or take loans using them as collateral.

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 20:16 | 1300799 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

Reference or gtfo.

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 20:38 | 1300840 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

"Local Heritage

Global Experience".

What are they?

Goldman Sachs wannabes?

 

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 21:11 | 1300891 Solid
Solid's picture

2 bills making the rounds of Congress will essentially confiscate IRA and 401k balances.  Might even wind up as an Executive Order.  Be worried, guys and gals.  Either cash them out for the penalty or take loans using them as collateral.

You can also move them offshore in an LLC.

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 21:56 | 1300943 Solid
Solid's picture

2 bills making the rounds of Congress will essentially confiscate IRA and 401k balances.  Might even wind up as an Executive Order.  Be worried, guys and gals.  Either cash them out for the penalty or take loans using them as collateral.

You can also move them offshore in an LLC.

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 21:57 | 1300948 lamont cranston
lamont cranston's picture

"Rancho Deluxe" (1975 or so). Starring Jeff Briddges & Waterson (TD, baby)

 

Slim Pickens:

"All large scale crime is always an inside job."

nuff sed.

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 22:53 | 1301031 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

"...the Chinese are beginning to experience signs of inflation..."  These guys are WAY out in front of the news!  China? Inflation? Who knew?

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 00:10 | 1301134 steveo
steveo's picture

The Egg of Doom was a real crowd pleaser a month or so back.   Lets see
how the Egg and various trendlines have developed since then.  

It looks like the SPX has broken out of the Egg and may get a bounce up from an "internal trendline".
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 00:41 | 1301163 Tail Dogging The Wag
Tail Dogging The Wag's picture

This horse says LAND IN PANAMA!

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Mon, 05/23/2011 - 01:52 | 1301210 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

When the currency fails

...bankers die in the streets

  ...politicians get hung, tar'd and feathered

 Johnny comes marching home to nowhere...

Hurrah! Hurrah!

Break out the Weapon of Mass Destruction

...say so long to the Citi

...and they will all give thanks

Blame it on Iran, says Dick Cheney

...before the currencies fail ...before the currencies fail.

Yeah, use the Nobel Prize!

Drop the B H O'Bomba ...Bomba ...Bomba

yeah it's all over 

...another Octopus October Surprise ...Ronnie

say hey, make it September, sweet surrender

...which nobody can deny ...which nobody can deny ...which nobody can deny

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BMgGrFgP_8

 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 02:45 | 1301229 zippy_uk
zippy_uk's picture

All too negative. The reasons EUR will escape are:-

* The Greeks / Portugese / Ireland / Others will collectively find 1bln EURs down the back of the sofa

* The tooth fairy exists, and will delivery rewards in gold to all good Europeans

* The EUR currency will become convertible with tree leaves

* The PIIGS will suddenly sprout wings, and fly to the end of the rainbow to pick up the pot of gold there

 

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 03:21 | 1301248 gorillaonyourback
gorillaonyourback's picture

one of the best articles i've read recently lololololololol well done

Mon, 05/23/2011 - 05:27 | 1301275 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The song and dance can go on as long as substantial uncertainty remains about the cost and consequences of direct bailouts.  Until then the ECB and IMF will lean towards indirect bailouts which carry in the costs for continued profligate spending by the Greek government, only marginally (and probably counter-productively) offset by any State asset liquidations.  The sheer stupidity lies in not figuring out how much the damn gorilla in the room actually weighs so that a suitable round can be developed to kill it.

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