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IEA To Release 60 Million Barrels Over Coming Months, To Ensure Supply Due To Libya
The much anticipated, and expected, IEA report is here.
- IEA SAYS TO RELEASE STOCKS
- IEA SAYS TO RELEASE 60 MILLION BARRELS OVER COMING MONTHS
- IEA SAYS TO RELEASE STOCKS TO ENSURE SUPPLY DUE TO LIBYA
- IEA SAYS MEASURE TO ALLEVIATE LIBYA UNREST, IMPACT ON SUPPLY
- IEA SAYS 132 MILLION BARRELS LOST TO LIBYA
- IEA SAYS HIGH PRICES DAMAGE ECONOMY OF EVERY COUNTRY; IMPACT WORSE ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
- IEA SAYS VOTED FOR EMERGENCY RELEASE FOR ONLY THIRD TIME
Crude:
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Futures now getting jerked off higher. Watch for an absurd 'rally' after the open....per normal.
Or...not.
I'll wait until 4pm EST. I've seen this movie before.
The IEA says jump and Obama says how high? This coming after the UN declared war on Libya and Obama enforced it.
Folks I'd say the new world order is here and now. International agencies are deciding things and the US enforces them. Sovereign nation is gone.
The Lawnmower says this is all by design. Here is how this is going to play out and u can make a lot of money. 2 mil barrels a day is a drop in the bucket for 30 days. We are trying to drop the price of oil because we anticipate it going higher for whatever reason. The whatever reason is going to be the US going into Libya. They armed forces had a big training exercise on the east coast this past wknd. 2 C-130's a day have been taking off from camp pendelton in California. Buy the dollar, short gold and silver until late august. At that time gold will be 1460 and silver will be 31. Switch ur shorts to longs and play it all the way up to 48 by end of December. The Lawnmower knows.
2mbpd is NOT a drop in the bucket
Slack capacity defines the oil price. If you have 0 slack and you dump on 2mbpd, you can drive the price down a LOT.
Bama is probably pulling 30k from Afghanistan to deploy to Libya
Well, there you go. So much for Peak Oil, when there is a central planner standing at the top of the peak.
It all just gets richer every single day. Hello Greater American Centrally Planned Depression.
Peak Insanity is a long way off. The great thing about the run up to the peak is that each day's insanity helps makes yesterday's serving seem tame in comparison.
Insanity normalized one day at a time.
Correct. All counter trend intraday rallies in oil should be sold...and I expect there will be some miraculous algo attempts here...because the spot is very, very important to the S&P.
Thank you Ben Bernanke...thanks for this wasteland.
Once again the powers-that-be show how well they manage the mindless herd. Greed is so easy to manipulate.
can the mindless heard put all the pieces together???
http://blogs.forbes.com/christopherhelman/2011/06/22/saudis-set-to-bankr...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/23/us-brent-benchmark-idUSTRE75M2...
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8040
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43032162/ns/politics-white_house/t/obama-ann...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/09/opec-no-decision-reached-oil-ou...
clarify? looks to me like trend is down, so I sell each bounce UP? so you see oil continuing down? I'd heard a target of $85
what u think gonna happen when these stockpiles are drained?
the # of peak oil peakers will peak to surpass all previous peak oil peaker peaks?
we're not talkin pecks of pickled peppers, here, trav.
Obongo doesn't realize how many commodity ETF's are going to get whacked. DOH!
Isn't 60 million barrels over "months" kind of a drop in the bucket??
In one sense it is a drop in the bucket but Libya was producing roughly 1+ mb/d so it does help offset the loss. It was also enough to temporarily affect the spot price (or coincidence?). Ironically it does point out that there is no spare capacity for "good" oil anywhere.
One more note for those who think this is meaningless, a one million barrel per day draw would run the usa spr (which last time I checked in 2008 was half sour already) dry in less than two years.
I think that says more about the pathetic state (idea even?) of the SPR, than it does about the significance of single-digit mb/d.
maybe we can keep some extra over at your place? lulz
Here is a good interview with a few industry insiders talking about peak oil.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4d3kK4kgz5g
TPOG
Oil and Gold jumped off a cliff together.
I have mixed emotions about that.
US needs to control oil fields in Yemen,Libya...Nice¡¡¡
Next Nigeria¡
Oil Fields in Yemen? Their oil production is almost identical to Taiwan. Not quite double that of Italy.
But seriously, where does the IEA get the oil to release 60 million bbls over the coming months? Where are it's fields? Where are it's storage facilities? Why do I suspect that I am somehow going to get screwed for this? That is equal to about 1/10th of our SPR, you don't suppose that is where it will be released from eh? And why is it taking so long to get rid of Qaddafi? Isn't about time to either kill him or leave him alone? As in lesson taught, like when Reagan killed his kid in the 1980's. Someone is making a heap of money off of this or it would have been over by now.
I want these phony Islamic revolutions to never get resolved ! Let them fester in their own shit and pus until they beg Israel for guidance in organizing Semites into a productive, democratic society ! They are reaping their own harvest of hate ! Good strong medicine ! Monedas 2011 A Hoarder in Heaven Here and Now ! BTW The oil if it ever gets to market will come from the strategic reserve....where else ?
isn't a bit late?
so oil in 60$ is welcome?
alx
Wait, wait, are the US crude stocks not at all time high and consumption is almost non-existent? Why release the EIA stocks??? Something does not match...
thats easy..
there must be reason for speculators to sell oil...
later they will say 'its NOT because of weak economy, economy is strong, so demand is strong, so need more oil'
alx
Simple supply disruption in Europe...Libya oil is off line right now.
Yes, that oil was sent to Italy for refining into gasoline for the EU, since the disruption started euro gasoline has been tight and they now must have another source. The US was trying to do a deal with Saudi for a swap, we provide oil to the Italians now and replace that with Saudi oil later but the Arabs would not go along because they did not want to sell later at below market price, so the deal fell apart last week.
I remember thinking at the time what does Saudi Arabia know about the future price of oil we don't? Why do they automatically assume that crude is going to be higher no matter when the replacement deal is done? And if they can't go along with this simple plan to borrow against future production in order to get past this momentary supply disruption then maybe the peak oil people are closer to the truth than we have given them credit for.
Is the 60 million barrels going to Italy?
hehe...welcome to the great ole shell game! Where did all the oil go?
Lubrication Baby!
Time to BTFD as usual.
Exactly, they aren't done pulling aces (all 14 of them in the deck) out of their sleeves.
Where does the IEA get these 60 million barrels from?
fucking excellent question..
alx
If you read the reuters release it states its the USA's strategic stockpile...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/23/us-markets-oil-idUSTRE7592LE20...
So the USA just sold its reserves needed to fuel the war machine...
Coming soon - yard sale at Ft. Knox!
ben told you the inflation was transitory. maybe you guys finally understand why he said that? been short oil since ben said it at $105, via DTO.
So this is QE 2.5 ?? stopgap arrangement to keep things afloat till Mr. Bernanke works out the mechanics of QE3 by sept/oct. ??
60 million barrels? wtf? That's not even enough for US fourth of July weekend driving.
Total bullshit. Crushing, OK is full of oil. Supply is just fine. They're in a panic because Obama can't keep his support for occupying yet another middle eastern country.
Ever stop to wonder why we're so dead-set on keeping troops there when most of the country is against it?
drop in bucket.
world daily usage is around 80 -90 mln barrels per day..
so we are talking less 0.3 %.. peanuts
alx
Anything Obummer can do to get reelected. Maybe...just maybe we shouldn't be in Libya bombing more brown people.
30 million from the US? What crap!
Sweet less that a days worth of world supply. Please..the half life of this will last til about noon.
But I can smell the desperation of the world leaders..geez!
This is just part of the plan. They need to get the commodities down a bit before they start another round of inflation. Deflationary fear before the inflationary ramp.
Exactly! The timing is no coincidence. Oil has been falling for a while on its own. Ben's comments yesterday plus the release of oil will crush commodities. Ben needs deflation in order to justify intervention. This is just one of the weapons in their arsenal.
O'fucking bama to release 30 million barrels as well.
These PEOPLE need to be stopped
They are intent on destroying America.
we have moved from bread and circuses, to bread and oil and circuses....
here, take some oil, celebrate, please ignore all the rest
Peak Oilers discredited yet again.
Another Wall St. myth down the drain.
"But, John, every month, the BP Statistical Revew says....."
LOL......
how does this discredit peak oil? releasing reserves from storage isn't the same as finding more oil in the ground? this should hammer some energy stocks today :)
Uh, this kind of move actually confirms peak oil. So does this paper from the UK Department of Energy. This is research done in 2007 but only now released under an FOIA request.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/15/peak-oil-warning
TPOG
Manipulation that you can take to the bank!
great, us imports 10 barrels per day.....
Sounds like the promised spare Saudi capacity that the Saudis promised to bring on line wasn't able to show up; big surprise everyone knew it didn't exist.
Also, don't discount the US selling the reserve oil up here and rebuilding inventories at a lower price.
So the EIA is going to release less than 2/3rds of one days world crude demand over time?
Another ridiculous policy response. Fucking politicians trying to get reelected by once again demonstrating the wrong answer to the wrong question.
When the hedge fund community is structurally long over 300m/boe (WTI+brent) which amounts to 30% of OECD stocks, up from a mere 30m/boe at the high in 2006, one can only speculate (pun intended) about what the real issue and correct policy response it.
These numbers are from the CFTC and are as of last week. They are down from the high reached on April 26 which was 445m/boe (WTI+brent), but in absolute terms last weeks number was STILL HIGHER than at anytime before December 2010.
The problem is not SUPPLY. The problem is monetary policy and treating crude oil as an asset class. Alas as long as one doesn't correctly define the problem, the correct solution will never see the light of day.
and what do they know that is scaring them so much that they do this sort of thing to distract us?
What they know is what we all know.
Obama's poll numbers are in the shitter.
And he is hitting up wall street and HF's for massive donations to his 2012 campaign. So, instead of addressing the real issues, which would affect his puppet masters, he takes the easy way out, AGAIN.
So Obama announces draw down in Afghan Troops, and release of oil from SPR.
Next he will send out hopium lollipops.
"And he is hitting up wall street and HF's for massive donations to his 2012 campaign."
Thank you. He has his marching orders.
I love the smell of napalm - - and panic - - in the morning.
Don't you believe 'em....when they start dipping into reserves it's a freakin' oil crisis
Where's that Saudi commitment?
30 million are coming from the SPR.
Gotta love Obama's attempt to get re-elected. This is probably only the tip of the iceburg for what we will see as policies directed at that effort.
Come on....are we on swimming in de nial river? Wasn't SA supposed to make up for all Libyan production loss with a production increase of their own? Is our memory that short term? Watch, that fact won't be mentioned in the MSM or, if it is, it will be discounted.
the Ponzi Maintenance button has been pushed
wonder if this is a ruse to crush the price of oil by releasing supply to hasten excuse for qe3? i know this has been discussed a lot but it seems to add up.
This is totally unnecessary, as the Saudis have guaranteed increased productiont to offset the Libya shortfall!
I smell a rat. Is this a [Paris-based, predominantly European membership] IEA's [pathetic] response to the US threat to de-fund the IMF? Since when did they care about "developing countries"?
<edit> Cancel that. I see that O'bomber is chipping in 30mmbbl from the SPR ... must be some other agenda!
Anything to keep the farce intact. Add this to the things needed to keep the ponzi going along with fraud accounting, ZIRP, QE and next up PRICE CONTROLS.
According to EIA, U.S. daily consumption about 18.77 mmbd so 60mmbd is about 3.2 days worth of U.S. consumption. According to EIA, Libyan production is about 1.5 mmbd. According to IEA press release, already 132 mmb of light, sweet crude removed from market AND "analysts generally agree that Libyan supplies will largely remain off the market for the rest of 2011." So if we count 184 days left in the year from July 1, this is 184 days * 1.5 mmbd = 276 mmb offline for rest of year due to Libya. Simplified analysis but doesn't seem like 60 mmb over 30 days is much. Seems more worrisome that Saudis keep balking.
um...oil supply affects price at the margins.
WTF does it matter if the US consumes 19mbpd? We are not having any problem with the 18.7mbpd which is already available. It's the last 500kbpd.
The SPR release is glutting at the margins, creating temporary oversupply. This is its intended effect.
They will hide the real effects of the oil peak until hell breaks loose. And they will go down pointing and screaming at "speculators" and "big oil" and "OPEC" till the lights go out.
Hmm.... That's gotta hurt Goldman. What had happened ? They should have been told about this ?
Is goldman really falling out of favorite, fast, really fast.
Is it not pretty obvious, now, that SA has peaked? My question.....what will they do 2 months from now?
Peak Oil discredited LOL. Too funny. The Saudi's who supposedly have millions of excess barrels/day can't produce enough when push comes to shove so the IEA has to step in and "save the day".
I miss Matt Simmons - he would've been all over this like stink on shit.
Libya? The Wall Street "oil gurus" said Libya is "too small to influence oil prices"....he he he.
Someone is plyaing a nasty trick on oil longs and trashing the A-Rabs.
stateside- agreed. This release of 60mil brls from the SPR is tantamount to an admission that PO has arrived.
The 60 mm bbls of oil will be condensed from the smoke they're blowin' up our asses ! Monedas 2011 Hoarders have more fun ! http://trololololololololololo.com/
Well, confirmation of what we all know: there is no more spare capacity anywhere.
Thanks for getting that out into the public.
Now, by it's nature, reserves are finite.
Next step: full panic aboard
Interesting how it is announced that the decision to release 'strategic' reserves was the decision of the IEA. I understand that 30mil of that is coming from our SPR. 'Things that make you go ...hmmmm'.
All they have to do is stop putting oil into SPR ! That can be done by flippin' a friggin' switch ! Have they done that yet ? Do you know how difficult it is to stop a procurement program (SPR) ? They probably don't even have extractor pumps in place to suck up the briny brew ! LOL Hahahahaha ! Monedas 2011 No on both counts ! They don't stop adding to SPR and they don't have Barney Frank suck any up through a garden hose ! It's just too rich ! Do you believe in Hillary ? The "Truth Fairy" (Barney Frank) ?
This is a very bad sign. Very bad. You've gotta wonder about the timing. The CL market seemed pretty calm. No price moves.
They are definitely attempting to preempt something here.
I think that this is a signal that a massive supply crunch is about to hit us.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, Total World Petroleum Consumption averaged 84,249,000 barrels/day in 2009. So their 60 million barrels is good for about 17 hours.
Yeah ! 17 hours worth to be delivered over the next six months ? Monedas 2011 So this was why the Euro-Wops were whining.....they need their "Terror Oil" with Lockerby blood !
The drop in crude prices has nothing to do with this irrelevant 60 million barrel release. The drop is a realisation the global economy is heading into the shitter, fast! Consumption is about to fall off a cliff. QE3 gotta be a cert now, no?
yesterday italy called for a halt to libya operation. today comes an eia deal. related?
Everything is related. As for the U.S. this is a desperate attempt to keep prices down. My guess is that there is much we don't know; like SA has said (not publicly) that they can not produce more and/or that production is in decline. Also, this is an attempt to take out the longs and reward the shorts. You know, once bitten, twice shy. This in addition to the recent raising of the oil margin prices. It is all manipulated and has been but there is only so much you can do to manipulate a finite commodity.
Y'all just sit there and continue to think the world is at always has been.
For a lousy 1.4 million bpd they are tapping global SPRs.
See, it's not Libya's 1.4 mbpd. It's Libya in addition to the RELENTLESS FALL in production from fields that have been pumping for decades.
For your own good, understand that the party is over. It's over for you. It's especially over for your kids. The cops are coming.
On horseback. Four of them.
Ding
Crash-'See, it's not Libya's 1.4 mbpd. It's Libya in addition to the RELENTLESS FALL in production from fields that have been pumping for decades.'.......very well said!
And now you know why I chose this name.
An epic crash is an optimistic scenario for the human race. If that's all that happened, it would be a bright future.
But it's not. The situation transcends markets. We're headed towards hunter / gatherer territory, and no one will care a whit about call options or LIBOR rates. They'll care about finding a beehive from which to get carbs in the winter.
I actually have a couple of them. It is a hard way to get a buzz though.
Well done, but keep your mouth shut about them.
nah...I have it on good authority that we will just "find a way" and in the meantime we will use nukeyaler power and algae and ionic liquids and shit
Now you've got it - Excess capacity is like healing Tinkerbell: You just have to believe hard enough [don't strain too hard or you might blow a hemorrhoid!].
. . . or is it more like "the recovery," i.e., if you just wait long enough, it will come [like Godot]?
[Cue Little Orphan Annie singing, "Tomorrow. . ."]
Springtime for Allah ! That sounds better than Arab Spring ! They are not democratic revolutions......they are Allah is Great revolutions ! Monedas 2011 Our allies are sooooo special, Hillary ! My but you are the clever little hose monster/slit licker bitch !
this doesn't make any sense unless tptb sense that the downtrend could reverse itself in short order given something in MENA that we're not aware of, otherwise why would you now release oil from the SPR?
the other explanation could be that they're just stupid.
If the $4/bbl impact lasts a week (not likely) we save nearly $1 billion in crude. Meanwhile, the DJIA alone loses $50 billion since news of this stunt leaked out around 3am EDT. It's a stunning revelation of how idiotic (and desperate) the "brain trust" running our economy really is.
http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2011/06/not-terribly-slick.html
Yes this release of reserves if total bullshit in the big picture but for the GSs and JPMs who get inside information on these moves there are billions to be made in shorts.