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"If There Were a Reactor Meltdown or Major Leak at Fukushima, the Radioactive Cloud Would Likely be Blown Out ... Towards the US West Coast"

George Washington's picture




 

Washington’s Blog

Agence-France Presse notes:

California
is closely monitoring efforts to contain leaks from a quake-damaged
Japanese nuclear plant, a spokesman said Saturday, as experts said
radiation could be blown out across the Pacific.

 

***

 

"At
present there is no danger to California. However we are monitoring the
situation closely in conjunction with our federal partners," Michael
Sicilia, spokesman for

 

California Department of Public Health, told
AFP.

"California does have radioactivity monitoring systems in
place for air, water and the food supply and can enhance that
monitoring if a danger exists," he added.

 

***

 

Experts have
suggested that, if there were a reactor meltdown or major leak at
Fukushima, the radioactive cloud would likely be blown out east across
the Pacific, towards the US West Coast.

 

***

 

"The wind
direction for the time being seems to point the (nuclear) pollution
towards the Pacific," said Andre-Claude Lacoste of the French Nuclear
Safety Authority, briefing journalists in Paris on the Japanese crisis.

 

***

 

Earlier
the NRC said it was "examining all available information as part of
the effort to analyze the event and understand its implications both
for Japan and the United States."

The winds could shift at any time, blowing radiation into Tokyo or other parts of Japan.

However, even if the prevailing winds remain off-shore - towards California and Washington - those American states are still a long way away. As AFP notes:

While
US nuclear experts acknowledged the seriousness of Japan's reactor
crisis, some stressed that taking steps in the United States such as
distributing iodine tablets -- which prevent iodine 131 from being
absorbed into the body -- would be "vastly premature."

 

"It's a
big ocean. These (radiation) releases are essentially going to be at
ground level," said Ken Bergeron, a physicist who has worked on nuclear
reactor accident simulation.

 

"We should not confuse it with health issues in the United States."

 

Japan is roughly 5,000 miles (8,000 kilometers) from the US West Coast.

But while the great distances make the risk of radiation exposure to Californians and Washingtonians small, it is not zero.

For example, pollution from Chinese coal factories routinely hits California. For example, Mongabay noted in 2008:

Previous
studies have documented that dust from Asia — especially from deserts
and industrial regions of China — routinely crosses the Pacific Ocean on
prevailing winds to sully the air over the western U.S.

And see this and this.

As as the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory wrote last December:

About
a third of the airborne lead particles recently collected at two sites
in the San Francisco Bay Area came from Asia, a finding that underscores
the far-flung impacts of air pollution and heralds a new way to learn
more about its journey across vast distances.

In a
first-of-its-kind study, scientists from the U.S. Department of Energy’s
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the California Air Resources
Board tracked variations in the amount of lead transported across the
Pacific over time.

***

It’s well known that particles and
other aerosols cover long distances through the Earth’s atmosphere. But
the details of this transport, such as that of the lead particles’
7,000-mile journey from the smokestacks of China to the west coast of
North America, are largely unknown.

 

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Sun, 03/13/2011 - 12:20 | 1046551 sabra1
sabra1's picture

no difference between reactor radiation or tsa scanner radiation!

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 16:31 | 1047090 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I can decide not to go to the airport. Big difference.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 12:14 | 1046541 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Even with the containment dome blown off if they can keep the reactor under a pool of water it will be no health problem.   They store massive amounts of spent nuclear fuel assemblies in "pools" everywhere.  It's the end of that reactor, however, and getting it deactivated will cost a billion or so.  The biggest issue is if radiation levels at the site preclude humans entering and fixing problems.  Then you have a very costly problem.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 12:49 | 1046624 ddtuttle
ddtuttle's picture

I'm sorry but this is total nonsense. Blowing the top of a containment vessel is off is an EXTREMELY violent event. The containment vessel is 6" thick stainless steel and concrete (just in case 6" of stainless isn't enough). The stored fuel rods you refer to are partially burned Uranium inside zirconium pellets. It is almost impossible to convey how dangerously radioactive the material inside those pellets is. As long as they are not broken open or melted, the dangerous radioactive material is contained inside. However, an explosion that blows the top off the containment vessel would have been CAUSED by those pellets melting and opening up. An the sheer violence of such and explosion would rip the whole core to shreds, likely opening and melting many more pellets. You cannot contain radiation from that mess with water! At Chernobyl, they dumped concrete from helicopters trying to cover up the exposed core. Many of the pilots died. If a cloud of this stuff were to spread over Tokyo, the results would be catastrophic. A billion wouldn't begin to cover the costs.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 19:59 | 1047614 gasmiinder
gasmiinder's picture

http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/13/fukushima-simple-explanation/

 

Will give you a long but informative discussion of this reactor's design and why there is not the risk you describe.  I don't expect any GW fans to actually bother to read it but there it is just in case.

 

This brings back awesome memories of the Macondo disaster where GW worked night & day to scan the web for the most unscientific disaster scenarios possible and his loyal followers spent countless hours "discussing" issues about which they knew absolutely nothing.  

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 01:27 | 1049142 Money Squid
Money Squid's picture

Read the whole article. Author assumes the reactors shut down properly. Given all the "oversights" and problems we will have to wait for the full report to know if all reactors could be shut down properly. I find it a little hard to beleive that with all the planning and practicing for a meltdown that part of the "plan" is to  blow the shit out of your own building, but hey, if that's what the Japs planned as part of the ermergency contingency who am I to argue? If all is safe and noone can be contaminated, even with a full meltdown, then why the evacuation of all the people. The Prime Minister can put on some yellow rubber boots (ala Jimmy Carter) parade around there for a while and show the citizens they meant to blow up the building, just part of the plan. I hope Barry Brook is right, otherwise the only way to contain this is to have the Delta team sneak with some mini nukes, tunnel underneath the plant and blast it good. Just like the Mecando well.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 18:26 | 1052372 gasmiinder
gasmiinder's picture

If you read the article you would know the answer to those questions.  There has been NO source that suggests the reactors did NOT shut down properly.  We in fact know they did because if they hadn't the full meltdown would have occurred many days ago.  The rest of your comments are pure ZH meme ranting.  The people were evacuated because radiation release is part & parcel of the process they are using to try to cool the reactor.  I agree though - since a secret nuke solved the Macondo problem surely it's the solution here.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 17:26 | 1047211 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

DT,   It won't be Chernobyl-style run-away nuclear reaction, but a primary meltdown (still bad, but not "Chernobyl bad")!!!!!  At this point they believe that the Reactor Pressure Vessel is still intact and has not failed (alpha mode failure), but they could be "misinformed". But this is far from over and you have 6 reactors that are in trouble...........

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 14:59 | 1046919 cletus n clovis
cletus n clovis's picture

John Large Nuclear engineer speaks at 1:40 about explosion.

 

"Johttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Large

John H. Large is an independent nuclear engineer and analyst primarily known for his work in assessing and reporting upon nuclear safety and nuclear related accidents and incidents.[1] From the mid-1960s until 1986 Large was an academic in Brunel University's School of Engineering, where he undertook research for the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q6C8US20jI

 

first post after watching and reading for almost two years!

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 12:12 | 1046532 horseman
horseman's picture

There is a nuclear fallout map on image shack that puts the fallout on the west coast in ten days.  Google Potasium Iodine and then go to the sites, all are sold out.  I went to a suvial store in N Idaho on Saturday.  He told me he sold out his entire supply on Friday.  I'm putting iodine solution on my family right now to build it up in the body.  Not as effective as the pills but can't hurt.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 20:59 | 1047901 marchare
Sun, 03/13/2011 - 20:59 | 1047900 marchare
Sun, 03/13/2011 - 20:43 | 1047778 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Horseman,

Don't think that you need to buy the Iosat stuff that is either sold out or about to be cost gouged.  You can buy it as a supplement at many health stores, and it is available on Amazon from multiple sellers, at a much cheaper rate than the Iosat.  Might take a few days to get there, but the topical will work just fine until then.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 13:26 | 1046725 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

I'm putting iodine solution on my family right now to build it up in the body.

http://curezone.com/forums/am.asp?i=1666669

How to Detox Your Body of Depleted Uranium Residues, the Effects of Radiation, and Radioactive Contamination

 

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 14:26 | 1046860 Nostradumbass
Nostradumbass's picture

*

*

I have been using a detoxified iodine product for some years now.

Thanks for the excellent link !

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 16:29 | 1047084 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Also redflarekits.com (where I ordered, not run by me) and directly from Anbex who manufacture Iosat tablets.

I'm hoping that it'll just be something I stash away in case Diablo Canyon does the same thing as Fukushima if/when the big one hits on the San Andreas fault.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 12:53 | 1046632 Stranded Observer
Stranded Observer's picture

That map is a bullshit hoax. It also says the radiation levels would be 750 rads.  Do you know how much that is?  Enough to kill you within a few hours.  If that map was true the whole Western third of the U.S. would be dead within a week.  

I have Postassium Iodide but I am no where near taking it just yet.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 20:31 | 1047702 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Stranded Observer

"If that map was true the whole Western third of the U.S. would be dead within a week."

So if we notice an exodus of Jewish movie producers we should be scared?

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 20:24 | 1047683 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Nah, you'd probably end up with a 300% increase in cases of thyroid cancer, but otherwise all would be ok, especially with all the new night-lighting around you. No need for the potassium cyanide.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 12:58 | 1046645 Stranded Observer
Stranded Observer's picture

Correction:  kill you within a week or so.  Sorry for the (slightly) inaccurate info.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 13:05 | 1046664 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

And you know what that would mean?  The S&P would melt up 50 points.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 13:09 | 1046677 patience...
patience...'s picture

literally....

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 12:07 | 1046513 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

These are British Broadcasting Corporation tweets from a (whistleblower?) nuclear power plant designer (did he help design Fukushima-Daiichi?) regarding the gravity of the situation and his claims the Japanese and international officials are severely downplaying the risks at present - the numbers in bold are time stamps (link is at end):

1541: A former nuclear power plant designer has said Japan is facing an extremely grave crisis and called on the government to release more information, which he said was being suppressed. Masashi Goto told a news conference in Tokyo that one of the reactors at the Fukushima-Daiichi plant was "highly unstable", and that if there was a meltdown the "consequences would be tremendous". He said such an event might be very likely indeed. So far, the government has said a meltdown would not lead to a sizeable leak of radioactive materials.

1548: Mr Goto said the reactors at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear plant were suffering pressure build-ups way beyond that for which they were designed. There was a severe risk of an explosion, with radioactive material being strewn over a very wide area - beyond the 20km evacuation zone set up by the authorities - he added. Mr Goto calculated that because Reactor No 3 at Fukushima-Daiichi - where pressure is rising and there is a risk of an explosion - used a type of fuel known as Mox, a mixture of plutonium oxide and uranium oxide, the radioactive fallout from any meltdown might be twice as bad.

1558: He described the worst-case scenario: "It is difficult to say, but that would be a core meltdown. If the rods fall and mix with water, the result would be an explosion of solid material like a volcano spreading radioactive material. Steam or a hydrogen explosion caused by the mix would spread radioactive waste more than 50km. Also, this would be multiplied. There are many reactors in the area so there would be many Chernobyls."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 12:09 | 1046522 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

GE's reputation cant be tarnished..

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 18:22 | 1047399 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Good.... nuclear power is up to 400% more expensive than coal or gas fired power stations... the Nuclear industry, bankrupt and propped up by collosal (and corrupt) Govt subsidies has been gaining traction in recent years as an 'alternative' green energy (cough splutter) to 'dirty' old hydrocarbons. Nothing would destroy Western economies faster than going extortionately expensive nuclear.

If this natural disaster puts nuclear on the backburner for safety issues it won't be wasted. The other question is for the Japanese Govt siting plants on coastal (tsunami) areas? ...really who thought this was a good idea!

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 20:34 | 1047704 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Dude. Proximity to water.  Ever see how many we have sitting on coastlines?

http://www.radiationnetwork.com/RadiationNetwork.htm

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 11:45 | 1046473 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Pacific weather reports from France.

The winds could shift at any time...   It's a big ocean.

Mein got.  Vat vould ve do mitout George to tell us????

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 10:24 | 1046369 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

More importantly what became of the radioactive cloud from the 1986 Chernobyl disaster? 

I'll tell you what happened: It headed to Europe, which is why I stopped drinking Evian Water in 2001.

 

"Each drop of Evian Natural Spring Water starts off as rain and snow high up in the pristine peaks of the French Alps... a journey that lasts 15 years"

 

Chernobyl fallout

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ74Rqh7yDE

Evian's journey

http://www.evian.com/#/en_GB/42-the-15-year-journey

Commission de Recherche et d'Information Independantes sur la Radioactivite (CRII-RAD). (May 1998). Contamination radioactive de l'Arc Alpin. CRII-RAD, Valence, France.

http://www.davistownmuseum.org/cbm/Rad7b.html#France

 

 

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 20:30 | 1047696 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

AN0NYM0US

"More importantly what became of the radioactive cloud from the 1986 Chernobyl disaster? 

I'll tell you what happened: It headed to Europe, which is why I stopped drinking Evian Water in 2001."

Some movie I watched noted Chernobyl as the reason the one of the characters swithed to Chilean wines. Radioactive French wines were not that appealing.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 14:11 | 1046832 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

Meh. People have such short memories. MORE important are the effects from the above ground nuclear testing, before they went underground. That's far more applicable to the US. The fallout covered vast portions east of Nevada. And people did die.

However, some of my family actually went and saw some of the explosions. This was before the effects of the fallout were known. All have lived to old age.

Personally, I'm not worried at all. Prepared, certainly. Worried, nope. Some people feed off of fear.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 23:17 | 1048571 tired1
tired1's picture

A few years ago I met one of the Ukrainian 'liquidators'. He seemed to be in good enough health, I think that repeated vodka flushes are good for one's system.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 10:35 | 1046394 falak pema
falak pema's picture

try Salvetat from the Pyrenees. It'll kill you anyway, as when you're scared it ends bad.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 09:56 | 1046356 Trying to Understand
Trying to Understand's picture

Ahh, but the poison is in the dose... NUMBERS please???? In layman's terms of course...

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 12:20 | 1046547 Matte_Black
Matte_Black's picture

I do not believe you should give even a moment of worry to the idea that the US will receive toxic levels of radiation if any at all.

All the science guys I have talked to have told me that it would require an explosion large enough to project radioactive material into the jetstream - 6 to 9 miles up and even then it would depend on exactly how the explosion took place as to how toxic this material would even be.

You are at a much greater risk of dying from a fall in your household today.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 13:58 | 1046792 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Your science guys can't explain how bees fly.

 

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 16:17 | 1047064 snowball777
snowball777's picture

With their wings, man!

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 14:27 | 1046862 Matte_Black
Matte_Black's picture

Nothing could be furthur from the truth.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 12:37 | 1046586 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Exactly right, there is little chance that any serious radioactivity will reach the US mainland but if  I was anywhere near the reactors, like in Tokyo, I would be very worried-who knows which way the wind might shift!!!

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 12:56 | 1046636 Matte_Black
Matte_Black's picture

A terrifying prospect, I admit. My understanding though is that they have made moves to acquire a lot of potassium iodine. Hopefully, they'll get through this without needing it.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 12:27 | 1046572 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Two have likely already melted down.  There are four more at the site.  Let's not be trivial.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 12:45 | 1046615 Matte_Black
Matte_Black's picture

I did not intend to trivialize the issue, but merely to reasurre you that no matter what happens the chances of anyone in the US being harmed is vanishingly small.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 12:59 | 1046644 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Whew!  I am relieved you think so. 

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 13:07 | 1046657 Matte_Black
Matte_Black's picture

I'm glad you feel better. Be careful not to fall in your houshold today.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 13:20 | 1046707 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Nonetheless, I think I'll be running future meals comprising Pacific Salmon past my geiger counter.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 17:50 | 1047297 Bob Dobbs
Bob Dobbs's picture

A geiger counter would not be that helpful I fear.  It's the specific radio-nucleotide and the accumulated dose that counts.  Cesium 137 is very, very bad, Strontium 90 too.

 

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 12:34 | 1046582 Bob Dobbs
Bob Dobbs's picture

At this point it's certain that some of the fuel rods are damaged, but I think that we should be careful about using an alarmist term like 'meltdown.'

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 14:15 | 1046839 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Good point, Bob Dobbs. For us non-scientists, "meltdown" just means "scary," without being much more specific than that. So far, it looks like news people using the word are referring to an unknown level of fuel rod damage, but if current efforts to cool the core fail, a true "China Syndrome" could develop. The fuel breaches the bottom of the containment vessel and melts its way down to groundwater. As any steelworker will tell you, pouring water on top of molten metal is not a problem. The water turns to steam and goes away. But if you pour molten metal on top of water, even a little bit, you have a huge problem. The water turns to steam, but has no way to escape, so pressure builds explosively and blows hot metal everywhere.

In the case in Japan, if this kind of "meltdown" happens, the resulting explosion would be more than enough to launch radioactive debris high into the atmosphere. Not good, but not TEOTWAWKI either. Remember, the US & the Soviets did basically the same thing, deliberately and repeatedly, from 1945 until 1963, when above-ground testing was stopped.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 13:00 | 1046652 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The title of the article...

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