Illusion Based on a Fantasy

ilene's picture

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly:  Illusion Based on a Fantasy 

Download Newsletter 3/6/11

Robbed by Speculators 


Evaluating the historical data on the subject, John Mauldin concludes, “As both GaveKal and Rosenberg note, a doubling in the oil price is not good for markets... As I wrote a few weeks ago, we are entering a period where recessions are likely to be more frequent and markets more volatile. These are not times for normal buy-and-hold strategies.” (Are Booming Economies Good for the Markets?)


Considering the turmoil that has been unleashed in the wake of civil unrest and the outbreak of open conflict in Libya, and the resulting affect on oil prices, imagine how much damage would be caused to the global economy by similar events happening in Saudi Arabia. On Saturday, March 5, the Interior Ministry of Saudi Arabia announced a ban on all protest rallies and marches following recent anti-government protests in the kingdom’s east. The UK Independent reported that the ruling House of Saud has deployed security forces, possibly numbering as many as 10,000, into the oil-rich north-eastern provinces.


Keep in mind that while Libya produces roughly 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, Saudi Arabia produces over six times that amount, roughly 9.7 million barrels a day. Should Saudi Arabian oil production be disrupted, the consequences for the global economy would be enormous, and the price of oil would undoubtedly go up considerably.

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ebworthen's picture


Nikkei down -1.33% at 11:00 a.m. their time...




brown_hornet's picture

I live in Illinois.  What the feds giveth with the 2% FICA reduction, the state taketh away.

Blankman's picture

"I live in Illinois."


You, me and agent P.   

Kassandra's picture

If you have no meds..or antidepressants. People ARE waking up...and it's a good thing. I think the pharmaceuticals are finally wearing off.

Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

Schadenfreude, baby

I strongly suspect there wont be a genuine opportunity for a better world for us non-elites, but i am looking forward to the elites having a very ucomfortable time in maintaining their ill gotten comforts

apberusdisvet's picture





StychoKiller's picture

Now, can they learn the function of the Capslock key??

geno-econ's picture

Some golf courses will grow malt and barley and will become brewery operations utilizing otherwise grass irrigation water to making beer bringing back Budwieser as a truly American beermaker. Nevertheless, stock up on beer. 

geno-econ's picture

Not too distant future all golf coarses in developed countries will be converted to growing food ,grain and cattle. Should increase agricultural production by  5% and utilize golf fee savings to pay for increase in price of gas.   Enjoy the game while you can !

snowball777's picture

Damn, I thought you were going to find some way to save the water used to keep those greens green.

snowball777's picture

Evil spells, one presumes. Let's see if Beck turns into a newt (no, not that actual newt).

mkucstars's picture

Wouldn't that be delightful! The mental image made my day :)

ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

The economy is like a scratch golfer with a handicap. 

When you look at all the incentives out there (the 2% Social Security reduction alone accounts for $300+ extra dollars a month for all two (equal) income families making $200,000 a year or more), the economy is probably carrying a 7 handicap right now and still can't shoot more than 3.5 under par while the weather conditions just keep getting worse. An eagle in autos is followed by a double in housing and a birdie in ISM is at the expense of a bogie in employment.  



OldTrooper's picture

Well, I hope there aren't any holes ahead like I have from time to time - the complete meltdown, club-throwing, six-putting disasters.

But we all know the wizards playing this game aren't going to shoot 3 under, or even par.  Hell, the only reason they survived the first cut is because they keep moving their ball!  The Bernank already took two mulligans.  Next time he has to buy us all a round!

geno-econ's picture

After theyve seen the internet, you cant keep them on the desert.

After governments get a taste for deficits, they have to hit rock bottom to change their ways

Buy and hold is for old folks with accumulated wealth, trading is for the young generation trying take it away

High oil prices will kill the consumer who is already comotose with debt and force many to live in desert tents or move in with the old folks

The stock market will tank by June unless Ben does QE III---Mother of all Black Swans 


pitz's picture

How many young people really own stuff of value though?  Seems all the younger people I know are looking for the next Apple or Netflix, and really don't realize the amount of value that is out there in the oil or gold stocks. 

snowball777's picture

a) What's your cut-off for 'younger'?

b) Fuck paper.

Chuck Yeager's picture

I'm calling a tipping point.

"Inside Job" is in the theaters, MSNBC is talking about nothing but debt. And my coworkers no longer think I am a nutjob.

Our goose is cooked, but at least I don't feel so alone anymore.  The geese are awakening and honking loudly at each other.

I want to thank all of you for helping me during a lonely time where you were the only people I could talk to about my fear and anger.

I'm going to see "Inside Job" tonight with a friend who is losing his house next month.  I gave him warnings and advice and begged him to get eductated.  But I failed and he has lost his home.  And his job. I take no joy in his pain.  But I do take joy in the rest of the human race rejoining reality. 

I felt so alone, except for you people.

Thanks so much for sharing your informed thoughts and considered opinions.

And Tyler, I curse you and thank you daily for the red pill.




Cleanclog's picture

Inside Job will be out on DVD (and maybe On Demand) Tuesday March 8.  I am attending another small audience screening of it March 29th where director Charles Ferguson, and a UC Berkeley econ professor, and a poli sci and business ethics professor will be on a panel to discuss the film and its findings following the special screening.

Easy to imagine people taking to the streets afterwards - it is Berkeley after all.   A block from Sproul Plaza and Telegraph Ave.  

Ned Zeppelin's picture

Whoda thunk the owner of our very own Eagles football team here in Philly would finance the Inside Job movie. Thumbs up, dude. 

Elmer T Pudd's picture

Christina and her Puppet husband know how to yank chains in Lil' Israel, I mean Philly.  Bet they made a great return so they could install solar cells on the stadium to impress the Barackoman.....

OldTrooper's picture

Your coworkers no longer think you're a nutjob?

We're closer than I thought!

ThankYouSirMayIHaveAnother's picture

Wait, we were supposed to take the red pill?

StychoKiller's picture

Take the rainbow-colored pill, it has tiny, Au-79 & Ag-47 time pills in it...

RockyRacoon's picture

Don't let up.   Stay the course and alert.   The tipping point may be here but the worst is yet to come.

disabledvet's picture

"Doubling the price of war" is far worse.  And of course "nothing weeds out the excess like a good old fashioned correction."  I will say this:  "it is far better to do Libya than not do it now America."  We've "crossed the Rubicon in reverse" now Uncle Sam.  Perhaps it isn't news but in my view "there is nothing de riguer" about regime change no matter how the media portrays it.  And yes i do believe those American boyz are girlz lives are far more valuable than your's America though they have no "natural constituency" in their support but for nothing more than their continued--death for lack of a better word.  Save for money of course...and who cares about that anymore.

artinlight's picture

This week should be the best so far - bitchez

Sudden Debt's picture

I was thinking the same this weekend.

It's like everything is crumbling down in Europe, North Africa and America where the government is going into gridlock over the budgets pretty soon.

The numbers of issues are just staggering and it's like every sollution for every problem has so many downsides that the list of problems can only grow.

It's also pretty clear oil wil go up again, the dollar down, euro up just like any other commodity.


CPL's picture

Something is happening in Saudi right now.  Twitter is down for anyone not part of the government and anonymus is putting a project together like Egypt.  IRC is live and engineering is online again. 


Going to be a long night...


Looks like the Saudi gov't banning protests isn't going over that well.  See what this looks like in the morning.

Doubt it'll be good though


snowball777's picture

Did they learn nothing from the Hosni corollary to the Streisand effect?

CPL's picture

Nope.  The zen parable of when a river meets a rock does the river flow through the rock.


Meanwhile the MSM and governments at large are assuming the river magically diverts itself or evaporation works into the natural effect.

John Law Lives's picture

I could be mistaken, but you almost sound excited about the sad state of world affairs.

sunny's picture

I could be mistaken, but you almost sound excited about the sad state of world affairs.

Stasis is not good.  The sooner we get on with it, the less painful it will be.  Yes, I too am a bit excited.  If we can finally witness the crumbling of these many houses of cards, we might watch something better take it's place.


Blankman's picture

In the immortal words of Hunter S. Thompson:

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro"

ebworthen's picture

Don't hold your breath all...

QE3 and "Assurances" by U.S. and European Banking Cartels (Governments) that all is well, and "Please return to your hamster wheels and consume more pellets" on MSM.

They can make this last a little while longer.

They'll do anything they can to kill PM's and induce inflation while making it look like happenstance so be wary...

John Law Lives's picture

Remember the immortal words of Gordon Gekko:

"If you're not inside, then you're outside, ok?"

The elites who have brought the world to this place don't intend to turn the keys over to people like you or me.  The world is not about to suddenly get better after things get worse.  Things are getting worse, and they may only get worse after that.

razorthin's picture

But isn't wonderful to know that they cannot escape from 7 billion people when the SHTF, no matter how deep in the earth's crust they bury themselves?  Maybe we can drive them to a firey demise in the earth's mantle.