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IMF Cuts US, Japan 2011 GDP Forecast

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Reuters reports that just as Zero Hedge has been expecting as along, global economic growth is starting to slow. According to a leaked copy of the World Economic Outlook report coming out shortly:

  • US GDP growth has been cut to 2.8% from 3.0% in 2011; while 2012 (which will be cut at a later date) was raised to 2.9% from 2.7%.
  • Japan 2011 GDP cut to 1.4% from 1.6%, 2012 to 2.1% from 1.8% (same as above)
  • Euro zone 2011 GDP raised to 1.6% from 1.5% in 2011; 2012 raised to 1.8% from 1.7% - good luck with this one.
  • China 2011 GDP remains at 9.6%, slowing to 9.5% in 2012

More as we see it.

 

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Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:43 | 1116586 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Funny about Japan.  Even after printing a zillion Yen, they are STILL losing GDP.

Not funny "ha ha", but funny "revolution".

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:56 | 1116639 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

There are two kinds of funny,

A nun with a flying habit.

A nun with a $50.00 a day habit.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:44 | 1116592 Tulli
Tulli's picture

Bullish.

(all bad news are).

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:57 | 1116641 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Speaking of bullish - just got an email from well know Elliott Wave subscription -- "bring in stops on Silver shorts to $38.50"

Ooooops!

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:48 | 1116611 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

...and this is how they will get QE3 going.  I'm sure surveys have already been sent out to the PD's.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:50 | 1116621 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ok QE3 then we should see the matching move in the dollar which will now slide quickly under 70. Other than that, this is just all talk.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:23 | 1116752 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The move in the dollar may have already started in Janurary.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:02 | 1116660 bmusic
bmusic's picture

Totally agree.  I don't doubt that the global economy is slowing, but also feel it will be used to justified QE III.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:45 | 1116853 redpill
redpill's picture

Yep expect to hear increasingly panicked forecasts from the PDs until the Fed finally "has no choice" but to act.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 11:01 | 1116930 suldog
suldog's picture

QE3 in play already.  All is good:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/is-qe3-already-here/

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:49 | 1116613 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Surely none of this can trump the fact that yet another criminal syndicate Wall Street firm has raised the price target on Apple...causing the shares to...fall as the NASDAQ rises...and while Bob Pisani over at the Ministry of Truth [CNBC] gets really, really excited...and distracted...by yet another Chinese Internet company coming to the NYSE...which will almost certainly be...later on...discovered as a fraud/shell company.

Well, on with the stupidity of the status quo...I guess?

When will the sheeple finally fatigue of it all?

 

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:52 | 1116626 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Got to show lots of excitement on the Blowhorn, thats what the whores are paid to do!

When will the sheeple finally fatigue of it all...as my pastor says 'When that belly touches that spine'!  :D

And alas, it will be far too late...

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:05 | 1116683 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Dog,

I wish the Blowhorn [CNBC] would just announce that the zombie apocalypse has commenced.  I keep hoping that Apple secretly released the white Iphone 4.  At least, in the zombie apocalypse world, the rules will be much easier to understand.  

But of course now that there are gamma freakin' rays everywhere...they might be tougher to take down...not sure.

Anyway, Apple sure isn't celebrating its gazillionth price target raise.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:18 | 1116730 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Alas, poor Apple.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:59 | 1116652 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

The sheeple won't fatigue of anything, as long as the ES keeps rising.  Other than that they don't know what the hell is going on.  They open their monthly or quarterly statements and see they made money and are happy.  They see what's on the CBS Evening News which always paints with a bullish brush.  They don't know anything about silver, gold, the phony reporting of all gov't numbers, or the latest from Japan. 

My uncle is a perfect example.  I've tried time and again to get him to buy some silver and gold, but he laughs every time I tell him I got another shipment coming of silver eagles.  He says the only way he would ever buy gold would be a gold watch or necklace, and that I'm a fool if I think there's a market for my "overpriced" gold maples.  At first I tried to explain that I could convert my maples to cash within about 30 minutes, but he kept going on about me needing to build up a savings account at a bank instead of a pile of PM coins that "could go down, while the money is safe in the bank."  I tried to warn him about inflation and possible bank holidays and he just laughed and mentioned how we are all protected by the FDIC.  I said what good is your money in the bank earning .005% when gas prices go up 10c every week and he said "it's all relative, and in proportion."  He thinks inflation is no big deal, it's always been that way and we're all doing just fine.  He actually thinks that when gas prices go up 10% then you make up for it in stocks or with extra business that leads to more money at work.  Completely blind to it all.  I finally gave up after about a month of back and forth.  I don't even tell him anymore when I order coins or buy new ones. 

He also buys into the myth that "stocks always come back and everything goes in cycles" which I told him sounds awfully similar to what people said about housing.  "It always comes back" until, of course, it doesn't.  I told him nothing goes up forever and he laughed and said "that's fine, I won't live forever either."  And so I just shook my head and walked away to check prices over at APMEX.  I figure I better buy a bunch, considering I might have to support my entire extended family in about 5 years when things get really bad. 

 

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 11:15 | 1117003 B9K9
B9K9's picture

You're wasting your time. The inability of certain people to understand reality is deeply rooted in genetics. The sheep have been carefully cultivated & nurtured for millenia to act exactly as you have described.

Think about it this way: should a Boston Terrier be blamed for not being able to run as fast as a Greyhound, or a Pug who's unable to pick up & pursue a scent trail like a Bloodhound? Over repeated generations, these dogs have been specifically bred for certain traits; IOW, it's not their fault.

The real anomaly in the situation you describe above is YOU. Yeah you, the guy who understands what is occurring, but lacks the generational network to really take full advantage of the opportunities to loot & steal. Rather than waste your time on those inherently incapable, it might be better to investigate forming your own cartel.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 14:38 | 1118181 Marla And Me
Marla And Me's picture

And that is the essence of mother nature.  No matter how hard they try to keep the sunlight from reaching the forest floor, a few strong seeds always find a way to germinate and grow in spite of the obstacles placed in their way.  Conversly, the inverse of your proposition is also true.  I can't imagine what the elders of the generational looting network think when they see their drug-addled, celebrity-status-seeking, insecure offspring.  That's what happens when you dirty the gene pool with trophy wives... 

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:51 | 1116619 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Gasoline shortages keeping Tokyo residents home; amusement park revenues down 75%, or down 100% for Disneyland, where rides have been certified OK, but not enough available energy to re-open the park.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:53 | 1116630 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Since GDP is pretty much just a measure of how many windows we break, couldn't we break some more?

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:54 | 1116637 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

i think we will be going down shortly...in one or 2 days...

 


Nifty Hits resistance line.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:58 | 1116643 dogismyth
dogismyth's picture

Fuch you IMF.  Fuch you Reuters.  You're all douche-bag propagandists!

Now...how do I really feel?

CONGRATULATIONS....YOU WON!

This is not a Joke

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:58 | 1116651 Lone Mad Minute...
Lone Mad Minute Medic's picture

Yeah! but I can't get parts for my toyota! Crank up the GDP Japan.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:00 | 1116659 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Wow, REITs sold off at the open only to be magically reversed.  It's only the 592nd day in a row.

Weird.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:03 | 1116671 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Nickels, silver, or gold?  That's the question I've been asking myself lately. 

 

Nickels will be great in a post hyperinflation environment for everyday transactions.  They are super easy to acquire, no need to sort by year or design (they are all 75% copper/25% nickel right now) and time seems to be running short to acquire them before they start to disappear, which should happen shortly after they change to zinc or steel, or eliminate it entirely. 

 

Silver has had an amazing run lately, and I strongly agree with all who think there is a massive physical shortage about to rear it's ugly head (ugly for the shorts anyway).  The market is also highly suppressed and could explode up at any time. 

 

Gold has massive upside as well, probably is manipulated down just like silver, and is in the midst of a huge bull run of its own. 

 

I guess you can't really go wrong with any of the 3, but I believe nickels are the best risk-reward play right now since you get about 7c of metal per nickel and they are easy to find. 

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:20 | 1116744 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Kill 2 birds with one stone and get the 1942 - 1945 silver nickel-- 35% silver, total weight of 5 grams.   so 1.75 grams silver -- over 2 bucks of silver  ;)

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:28 | 1116771 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Yeah I get boxes of nickels $100 in each box and sort them sometimes and usually find between 1-3 silver war nickels in each box. 

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:26 | 1116767 speedy
speedy's picture

Nickels Bitchzes !

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:06 | 1116679 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

"just as Zero Hedge has been expecting all along, global economic growth is starting to slow."

 

...understatement of the year so far. 

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:06 | 1116681 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Bears are now in huge trouble, will the old highs hold?

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:12 | 1116704 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

You realize you are completely irrelevant...right?

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:26 | 1116761 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Did you ever wonder why ZH won't give its users an ignore button?  Robo is a plant to stir things up.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:15 | 1116719 dogismyth
dogismyth's picture

well if you have to ask, you certainly don't have a clue. Thanks for the rigorous technical analysis.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:08 | 1116686 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

QQQQQQQEEEEEEEEE 3 for sure my homies!

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:09 | 1116692 Lone Mad Minute...
Lone Mad Minute Medic's picture

We need rogue smelters. I'm sitting on jars of loose change. The only thing keeping me from taking it down to Safeway and dropping it into the coin converter is the base metal.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:12 | 1116703 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Hell yes!

Melt those coins!

Piss on the 2006 federal law that prohibits melting pennies and nickels.

 

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:32 | 1116791 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Save nickles, worth 8c (75% copper, 25% nickle), and scheduled to be replaced this year with zinc.

Some note that when the currency has been called in, the coins were not, and are saving all their coins.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:07 | 1116693 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Don't worry, everything will look fine once all of the bad stuff is moved off balance sheet, sold to other countries and reimported on the spreadsheets as assets.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:11 | 1116698 Yikes
Yikes's picture

Japan GDP down only  .2% for 2011.  Hmmm.   Let's see. 

2010 GDP for Japan at $4.3T.  A .2% decrease would mean these earthquakes, tsunamis, and nuclear meltdowns would amount to a hit of only $8.6 Billion to their economy. 

 

I guess all that infrastructure wasn't worth a damn.

 

 

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:20 | 1116741 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And a .2% decrease hardly prices in the fact Japan is destroyed. Who these people are fooling, I have no idea.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:35 | 1116801 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

An estimated ~18,000 dead...

An estimated ~500,000 displaced...

Total damage (estimated) of ~$300+ Billion...

Ongoing nuclear disaster with no end in sight...

Global disruption of supplies to auto and electronics industries...

Yup.  Nothing to see here.  Move along.  Paper over this and jack the stock markets higher.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:10 | 1116700 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

Barry Eichengreen is a guest on the Peter Schiff Show today at 1033 ET/1533 UK.  It should be an interesting discussion.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:17 | 1116724 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

It's really fun to watch dumb shills on CNBC get their butts kicked by Peter Schiff.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:22 | 1116749 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

Agreed.  The Dick Morris 'interview' was priceless.

 

The interview time has now been changed to 1105 ET/1605 UK.  Eichengreen should be a decent opponent for Schiff.  However, my money is still on Schiff.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:17 | 1116729 Lone Mad Minute...
Lone Mad Minute Medic's picture

We could have smelting parties on Friday night. Beer, coke, and metals.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:18 | 1116737 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Pour me an ingot, please.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:20 | 1116748 deez nutz
deez nutz's picture

GDP down? Benny to Sack: NUM LOCK on stun!

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:24 | 1116751 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Shit must be bad -- long lines of pickup trucks filled with scrap metal at the scrap yard this morning. Folks need cash!

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 12:12 | 1117378 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

I visited a couple of scrap metal dealers in the S.F. Bay Area last fall to look into copper.  There were lines outside the BUY office - wiring stuffed into hefty bags.  China was far and away these guys' biggest client but Japan was not insignificant.  They were hunting around the old manufacturing ruins of the U.S. to find scrap to ship to the PRC.

To such a state has our economy fallen.  Under the present scenario, without repatriation of manufacturing jobs, I see a permanent underclass sporting 40% unemployment and on permanent '3 hots and a cot' subsidies from the govt.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:25 | 1116757 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

More bullish news with the NSA having to get involved in the investigation into the October hacking of the NASDAQ.  What ever occurred, must have been pretty serious to have the NSA in the mix. 

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:28 | 1116780 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

The US markets have now completely ignored:

1. 9.0 earthquake with tsunami and nuclear disaster in the world's 3rd largest economy

2. Worst month (Ferbruary) of new home sales in decades

3. Terrible monthly durable goods orders data

4. Complete anarchy throughout MENA

... and the beat goes on...

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:31 | 1116786 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

These GDP numbers are calling "next year..a recovery....I promise...."

I mean on what basis would you raise world GDP for 2012? On the belief that the worlds 3rd largest economy will only have a 'short term nuclear meltdown'?

Maybe it's they believe that the EU will have a 'V shaped collapse'?

....or is it they believe that the Middle east unrest will 'blow over'

The IMF are dangerous idiots - never give idiots power they simply don't know how to use it.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 11:44 | 1117172 suldog
suldog's picture

They know how to use it perfectly - they and their ilk are filthy rich and have getaway plans in place for when the pillaging is finally resisted by the village idiots.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:50 | 1116879 Lotus Flower
Lotus Flower's picture

Wasn't expecting a sideplate of humor with my spoon-fed BS courtesy of my IMF cronies.

 

But seriously, good call on those GDP numbers.

 

Seriously.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 11:56 | 1117269 waldocktrades
waldocktrades's picture

and the real bitch is that WE, the U.S., is going to help pay for the recostruction and shoot ourselves in the ass...AGAIN.

Look at the reconstruction and what it will do to us.

http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com/2011/03/25/setting-of-the-risi...

 

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 12:23 | 1117432 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Who elects thes IMF'ers.? Who do they represent.....besides Bankers ? Do they care about Me.????

And while we are at it WHO does the Council on Forign Relations represent.?

Who ELECTS them.?

Why do they have so much influence in the USA (world) ?

And why they are not talked about more on this site,considering what they say and do so heavily influences the financial markets.?

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 12:53 | 1117581 Triple A
Triple A's picture

why are they forecasting 2012 gdp when they have to revise 2011 gdp. Every damn piece of data gets revised every time.

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