IMF Cuts US, Japan 2011 GDP Forecast

Tyler Durden's picture

Reuters reports that just as Zero Hedge has been expecting as along, global economic growth is starting to slow. According to a leaked copy of the World Economic Outlook report coming out shortly:

  • US GDP growth has been cut to 2.8% from 3.0% in 2011; while 2012 (which will be cut at a later date) was raised to 2.9% from 2.7%.
  • Japan 2011 GDP cut to 1.4% from 1.6%, 2012 to 2.1% from 1.8% (same as above)
  • Euro zone 2011 GDP raised to 1.6% from 1.5% in 2011; 2012 raised to 1.8% from 1.7% - good luck with this one.
  • China 2011 GDP remains at 9.6%, slowing to 9.5% in 2012

More as we see it.

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tmosley's picture

Funny about Japan.  Even after printing a zillion Yen, they are STILL losing GDP.

Not funny "ha ha", but funny "revolution".

Dapper Dan's picture

There are two kinds of funny,

A nun with a flying habit.

A nun with a $50.00 a day habit.

Tulli's picture


(all bad news are).

Sophist Economicus's picture

Speaking of bullish - just got an email from well know Elliott Wave subscription -- "bring in stops on Silver shorts to $38.50"


firstdivision's picture

...and this is how they will get QE3 going.  I'm sure surveys have already been sent out to the PD's.

SheepDog-One's picture

Ok QE3 then we should see the matching move in the dollar which will now slide quickly under 70. Other than that, this is just all talk.

firstdivision's picture

The move in the dollar may have already started in Janurary.

bmusic's picture

Totally agree.  I don't doubt that the global economy is slowing, but also feel it will be used to justified QE III.

redpill's picture

Yep expect to hear increasingly panicked forecasts from the PDs until the Fed finally "has no choice" but to act.

Cdad's picture

Surely none of this can trump the fact that yet another criminal syndicate Wall Street firm has raised the price target on Apple...causing the shares to...fall as the NASDAQ rises...and while Bob Pisani over at the Ministry of Truth [CNBC] gets really, really excited...and yet another Chinese Internet company coming to the NYSE...which will almost certainly be...later on...discovered as a fraud/shell company.

Well, on with the stupidity of the status quo...I guess?

When will the sheeple finally fatigue of it all?


SheepDog-One's picture

Got to show lots of excitement on the Blowhorn, thats what the whores are paid to do!

When will the sheeple finally fatigue of it my pastor says 'When that belly touches that spine'!  :D

And alas, it will be far too late...

Cdad's picture


I wish the Blowhorn [CNBC] would just announce that the zombie apocalypse has commenced.  I keep hoping that Apple secretly released the white Iphone 4.  At least, in the zombie apocalypse world, the rules will be much easier to understand.  

But of course now that there are gamma freakin' rays everywhere...they might be tougher to take down...not sure.

Anyway, Apple sure isn't celebrating its gazillionth price target raise.

LRC Fan's picture

The sheeple won't fatigue of anything, as long as the ES keeps rising.  Other than that they don't know what the hell is going on.  They open their monthly or quarterly statements and see they made money and are happy.  They see what's on the CBS Evening News which always paints with a bullish brush.  They don't know anything about silver, gold, the phony reporting of all gov't numbers, or the latest from Japan. 

My uncle is a perfect example.  I've tried time and again to get him to buy some silver and gold, but he laughs every time I tell him I got another shipment coming of silver eagles.  He says the only way he would ever buy gold would be a gold watch or necklace, and that I'm a fool if I think there's a market for my "overpriced" gold maples.  At first I tried to explain that I could convert my maples to cash within about 30 minutes, but he kept going on about me needing to build up a savings account at a bank instead of a pile of PM coins that "could go down, while the money is safe in the bank."  I tried to warn him about inflation and possible bank holidays and he just laughed and mentioned how we are all protected by the FDIC.  I said what good is your money in the bank earning .005% when gas prices go up 10c every week and he said "it's all relative, and in proportion."  He thinks inflation is no big deal, it's always been that way and we're all doing just fine.  He actually thinks that when gas prices go up 10% then you make up for it in stocks or with extra business that leads to more money at work.  Completely blind to it all.  I finally gave up after about a month of back and forth.  I don't even tell him anymore when I order coins or buy new ones. 

He also buys into the myth that "stocks always come back and everything goes in cycles" which I told him sounds awfully similar to what people said about housing.  "It always comes back" until, of course, it doesn't.  I told him nothing goes up forever and he laughed and said "that's fine, I won't live forever either."  And so I just shook my head and walked away to check prices over at APMEX.  I figure I better buy a bunch, considering I might have to support my entire extended family in about 5 years when things get really bad. 


B9K9's picture

You're wasting your time. The inability of certain people to understand reality is deeply rooted in genetics. The sheep have been carefully cultivated & nurtured for millenia to act exactly as you have described.

Think about it this way: should a Boston Terrier be blamed for not being able to run as fast as a Greyhound, or a Pug who's unable to pick up & pursue a scent trail like a Bloodhound? Over repeated generations, these dogs have been specifically bred for certain traits; IOW, it's not their fault.

The real anomaly in the situation you describe above is YOU. Yeah you, the guy who understands what is occurring, but lacks the generational network to really take full advantage of the opportunities to loot & steal. Rather than waste your time on those inherently incapable, it might be better to investigate forming your own cartel.

Marla And Me's picture

And that is the essence of mother nature.  No matter how hard they try to keep the sunlight from reaching the forest floor, a few strong seeds always find a way to germinate and grow in spite of the obstacles placed in their way.  Conversly, the inverse of your proposition is also true.  I can't imagine what the elders of the generational looting network think when they see their drug-addled, celebrity-status-seeking, insecure offspring.  That's what happens when you dirty the gene pool with trophy wives... 

franzpick's picture

Gasoline shortages keeping Tokyo residents home; amusement park revenues down 75%, or down 100% for Disneyland, where rides have been certified OK, but not enough available energy to re-open the park.

EscapeKey's picture

Since GDP is pretty much just a measure of how many windows we break, couldn't we break some more?

Tense INDIAN's picture

i think we will be going down one or 2 days...


Nifty Hits resistance line.

dogismyth's picture

Fuch you IMF.  Fuch you Reuters.  You're all douche-bag propagandists! do I really feel?


This is not a Joke

Lone Mad Minute Medic's picture

Yeah! but I can't get parts for my toyota! Crank up the GDP Japan.

Boilermaker's picture

Wow, REITs sold off at the open only to be magically reversed.  It's only the 592nd day in a row.


LRC Fan's picture

Nickels, silver, or gold?  That's the question I've been asking myself lately. 


Nickels will be great in a post hyperinflation environment for everyday transactions.  They are super easy to acquire, no need to sort by year or design (they are all 75% copper/25% nickel right now) and time seems to be running short to acquire them before they start to disappear, which should happen shortly after they change to zinc or steel, or eliminate it entirely. 


Silver has had an amazing run lately, and I strongly agree with all who think there is a massive physical shortage about to rear it's ugly head (ugly for the shorts anyway).  The market is also highly suppressed and could explode up at any time. 


Gold has massive upside as well, probably is manipulated down just like silver, and is in the midst of a huge bull run of its own. 


I guess you can't really go wrong with any of the 3, but I believe nickels are the best risk-reward play right now since you get about 7c of metal per nickel and they are easy to find. 

Sophist Economicus's picture

Kill 2 birds with one stone and get the 1942 - 1945 silver nickel-- 35% silver, total weight of 5 grams.   so 1.75 grams silver -- over 2 bucks of silver  ;)

LRC Fan's picture

Yeah I get boxes of nickels $100 in each box and sort them sometimes and usually find between 1-3 silver war nickels in each box. 

scratch_and_sniff's picture

"just as Zero Hedge has been expecting all along, global economic growth is starting to slow."


...understatement of the year so far. 

RobotTrader's picture

Bears are now in huge trouble, will the old highs hold?

Boilermaker's picture

You realize you are completely irrelevant...right?

John Law Lives's picture

Did you ever wonder why ZH won't give its users an ignore button?  Robo is a plant to stir things up.

dogismyth's picture

well if you have to ask, you certainly don't have a clue. Thanks for the rigorous technical analysis.

GOSPLAN HERO's picture

QQQQQQQEEEEEEEEE 3 for sure my homies!

Lone Mad Minute Medic's picture

We need rogue smelters. I'm sitting on jars of loose change. The only thing keeping me from taking it down to Safeway and dropping it into the coin converter is the base metal.

GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Hell yes!

Melt those coins!

Piss on the 2006 federal law that prohibits melting pennies and nickels.


franzpick's picture

Save nickles, worth 8c (75% copper, 25% nickle), and scheduled to be replaced this year with zinc.

Some note that when the currency has been called in, the coins were not, and are saving all their coins.

spanish inquisition's picture

Don't worry, everything will look fine once all of the bad stuff is moved off balance sheet, sold to other countries and reimported on the spreadsheets as assets.

Yikes's picture

Japan GDP down only  .2% for 2011.  Hmmm.   Let's see. 

2010 GDP for Japan at $4.3T.  A .2% decrease would mean these earthquakes, tsunamis, and nuclear meltdowns would amount to a hit of only $8.6 Billion to their economy. 


I guess all that infrastructure wasn't worth a damn.



SheepDog-One's picture

And a .2% decrease hardly prices in the fact Japan is destroyed. Who these people are fooling, I have no idea.

John Law Lives's picture

An estimated ~18,000 dead...

An estimated ~500,000 displaced...

Total damage (estimated) of ~$300+ Billion...

Ongoing nuclear disaster with no end in sight...

Global disruption of supplies to auto and electronics industries...

Yup.  Nothing to see here.  Move along.  Paper over this and jack the stock markets higher.

Horatio Beanblower's picture

Barry Eichengreen is a guest on the Peter Schiff Show today at 1033 ET/1533 UK.  It should be an interesting discussion.

GOSPLAN HERO's picture

It's really fun to watch dumb shills on CNBC get their butts kicked by Peter Schiff.

Horatio Beanblower's picture

Agreed.  The Dick Morris 'interview' was priceless.


The interview time has now been changed to 1105 ET/1605 UK.  Eichengreen should be a decent opponent for Schiff.  However, my money is still on Schiff.

Lone Mad Minute Medic's picture

We could have smelting parties on Friday night. Beer, coke, and metals.

deez nutz's picture

GDP down? Benny to Sack: NUM LOCK on stun!

GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Shit must be bad -- long lines of pickup trucks filled with scrap metal at the scrap yard this morning. Folks need cash!

Saxxon's picture

I visited a couple of scrap metal dealers in the S.F. Bay Area last fall to look into copper.  There were lines outside the BUY office - wiring stuffed into hefty bags.  China was far and away these guys' biggest client but Japan was not insignificant.  They were hunting around the old manufacturing ruins of the U.S. to find scrap to ship to the PRC.

To such a state has our economy fallen.  Under the present scenario, without repatriation of manufacturing jobs, I see a permanent underclass sporting 40% unemployment and on permanent '3 hots and a cot' subsidies from the govt.

firstdivision's picture

More bullish news with the NSA having to get involved in the investigation into the October hacking of the NASDAQ.  What ever occurred, must have been pretty serious to have the NSA in the mix. 

John Law Lives's picture

The US markets have now completely ignored:

1. 9.0 earthquake with tsunami and nuclear disaster in the world's 3rd largest economy

2. Worst month (Ferbruary) of new home sales in decades

3. Terrible monthly durable goods orders data

4. Complete anarchy throughout MENA

... and the beat goes on...