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IMF Gold Sales v. the Alchemy of Gold Futures – What’s the Impact on Gold Prices?

smartknowledgeu's picture




 

The recently announced IMF sale of 191.3 tonnes of their
gold reserves, though it caused an immediate sharp knee-jerk reaction in gold
futures markets, will have a negligible effect on the long-term price of
gold.  Here’s why.

 

In December, 2009 the commercial bullion banks that serve as
agents for the leading Western Central Banks were net short 303,791 contracts
of gold. Each COMEX gold futures contract represents 100 troy ounces, so the
Commercials were net short 30,379,100 troy ounces of gold. With the average
price of gold $1,134.72 per troy ounce in December 2009, this net short
commercial position represented $34.47 billion worth of gold.  There are 32,150.74533 troy ounces in
one metric tonne. So 30,379,100 troy ounces/ 32,150.74533 troy ounces = 944.90
metric tonnes of gold. Since gold contracts are supposed to be good for
physical delivery, the commercial bullion banks that were short nearly 38% of
annual world production of gold this past December should have had 944.90
physical metric tonnes of gold in their vaults to back up their short position
at that time
. In reality, this situation never exists.

 

The amount of physical gold that the COMEX delivers on a
daily basis is negligible compared to the massive historical short positions
that have existed for decades. For example, during a two-week span across
January and February, COMEX arranged for the physical delivery of 543,500 troy
ounces of gold with their contracted warehouse depositories, a figure that
represents an average of just 38,786 troy ounces of gold per day. At this rate of daily delivery, it would take the COMEX more than two years
to deliver all the gold represented by the current net commercial short
position should the holders of long contracts ask for settlement in
physical delivery.

 

Through the use of futures markets, the Commodities Futures
Trading Commission (CFTC) has granted bankers a mechanism to perform alchemy
and turn paper into gold on the COMEX by allowing them to establish obscene
short positions that represent 25% to nearly 40% of annual gold production at
times while simultaneously allowing them to renege on their fiduciary
responsibility to actually physically possess the gold represented by their
short positions. In other words, the CFTC has allowed gold to operate under the
principles of the fractional reserve banking system on the COMEX futures
markets. As I stated above, the net short position of the commercials in gold
represented more than 30 million troy ounces yet for the past few months they
almost never exceeded delivery of 0.2% of their short position on a daily
basis. Many people would refute this argument by stating that COMEX only
delivered a minute fraction of physical gold represented by this obscene short
position because no institution asked for substantial physical delivery of
their long contracts. While it is true that less than 1% of most commodity futures contracts are ever settled by physical delivery, futures markets should not exist to serve the purpose of distorting the underlying reality of supply-demand fundamentals of the actual physical commodity. With gold and silver, this has been the case for decades.

 

However, the real question should be, “If I asked for
physical delivery of an amount of gold that I should be able to receive, would
I receive it?”
Why? If you were India, China or the United Arab Emirates and you wanted to buy 200 tonnes of gold at
the price established in futures markets, but you knew that there was no possible
situation whereby 200 tonnes of gold would ever be delivered to you via the
futures markets, what would you do? Would you buy 200 tonnes of gold in the
futures markets only to know that you would suffer a default of this delivery
and likely be forced to pay a much higher price in the
future or would you try to arrange to buy 200 tonnes of gold NOW from the IMF
or another Central Bank? Of course, you would choose the latter tactic. The
fact that gold cannot be printed out of thin air is the essential quality that
makes gold as a form of money much more sound than the Euro, the dollar, the
Yen or any other form of fiat currency.

 

However, tens of billions of dollars of gold
exist only in digital form on the COMEX and the CFTC has allowed bullion banks
to indeed achieve alchemy with gold (and silver) in the futures markets. By
allowing these mechanisms to persist that have absolutely zero to do with physical
supply and demand of gold and silver, bullion banks can suppress the price of
paper gold and paper silver in futures markets.
But in the end, they will never be able to
perpetually suppress the price of real physical gold and real physical silver. There will come a time when the prices for real physical gold and real physical silver completely sever the already tenuous umbilical cord they maintain to the suppressed prices of gold and silver established by the agent bullion banks of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England in futures markets.

 

As of February 17, the CME warehouse report stated that their
depository warehouses contained 1,645,000 troy ounces of registered gold and
8,292,887 troy ounces of eligible gold. Only two of their depository warehouse
have significant amounts of physical gold worth mentioning, HSBC, with
4,311,493 ounces of eligible gold and 266,677 troy ounces of registered gold;
and Scotia Mocatta with 3,826,013 ounces of eligible gold and 936,855 troy
ounces of registered gold. What does “registered” and “eligible” gold mean? As
in everything bankers do, these terms are meant to confuse the average person.
Central Bankers have used the same tactics to obscure their true holdings of
gold reserves by alternately labeling their gold reserves as Bullion Reserve,
Custodial Gold Bullion Reserve,  and Deep Storage Gold, without granting any transparency to
the definitions of their gold stores whenever they arbitrarily reclassify them
with different names. 

 

“Registered” gold is gold that has been assigned ownership
and cannot be sold to another party while “eligible” gold is gold awaiting
registration or delivery. In other words, a large portion of “eligible” gold
may not be eligible at all.  Furthermore, there are many questions regarding the
“registered” gold that these depository warehouses hold as to whether multiple
claims exist upon this “registered” gold. Many may say that questioning the validity of "registered" gold is non-justified paranoia, but the historical deceit of bankers justifies our skepticism, not our trust, in them. Just as multiple claims exist upon
every single dollar, Euro, pound and yen that shows up in your savings or
checking deposit bank passbook, I still believe that the gold listed as
“registered” gold may have multiple owners as well (When it comes to the money
in your bank savings and checking accounts, you may have the only claim on the
digital representation of the cash money that exists in your bank savings and
checking accounts, but that digital representation, since it has not yet been
printed in cash, is an abstract concept that exists only in your mind and not
in real life).

 

Though “registered” gold represents gold that has already
been assigned to someone, unless that physical gold is in your hands, this does
not preclude the fact that bankers may have assigned this “registered” gold to
“multiple” owners no matter what they claim. Remember if one reads the fine
print of the prospectuses of the GLD and SLV paper ETFs,  it seems very likely that multiple
claims exist on the physical gold and silver that back both the GLD and SLV
even though the vast majority of buyers of these ETFs believe otherwise.

 

Last week's Commitment of Traders report indicated that
commercial bullion banks were still net short 21,342,700 troy ounces of gold.
Given the definitions of “registered” and “eligible” gold, and the amounts of
registered and eligible gold that exist in COMEX depository warehouses, it is
obvious that bullion banks short gold with zero intention of ever physically
delivering well over 90% of the gold ounces they short, even though market
mechanisms require them to have the physical capacity and means to do so.  Thus, if China, India or any number of
Sovereign Wealth Funds wanted to buy another 1000 tonnes of gold, it would be
physically impossible for them to even partially fulfill this desire (via the futures markets). The
663.83 metric tonnes of gold that are currently represented by the physical
offset of the current net short positions of the commercials that is supposed
to be physically sitting in the vaults of depository warehouses contracted out
by COMEX simply is not there. Furthermore, what is “eligible” for delivery may
not even be eligible, and multiple claims may exist on both “eligible” and
“registered” gold that exists in the contracted depository warehouses.

 

In the end, the announced IMF sale of 191.3 tonnes of their
gold reserves, though it caused an immediate sharp knee-jerk reaction in gold
futures markets, will have a negligible effect on the long-term price of gold.
The IMF stated that “it would stagger the sales in order not to affect the
markets too much
”. However, since sovereign state buyers of gold can not get
anywhere near the tonnage of gold they desire from the futures markets, the
reality is that the IMF could probably dump all 191.3 tonnes on the market in
one month and it would be instantly absorbed by China, India and Middle Eastern
sovereign funds before any other Central Banks that also wants in on the sale
could get their hands on any of it.

 

More than a year ago, I wrote an article describing the
beginning of a disconnect between gold futures markets in Asia with those in
London and New York
, as well as the disconnect between physical gold and silver
prices with the spot prices established in the futures markets in London.
Eventually, due to the fraudulent nature of the gold and silver futures markets
that have nothing to do with the physical supply and demand of the underlying
commodities and everything to do with the desire of the US Federal Reserve and
the Bank of England to suppress gold and silver prices, I believe that this
disconnect will widen until there is an eventual total disconnect between the
AM and PM London Price Fixes for gold and silver and the actual prices demanded
by bullion dealers for real physical gold and real physical silver. 

 

About the author: JS Kim is the Managing Director & Chief
Investment Strategist for SmartKnowledgeU, a niche independent wealth
consultancy company that focuses of helping Main Street formulate investment strategies to avoid and beat
the scams of Wall Street.

 

 

 

 

 

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Sun, 02/21/2010 - 17:02 | 239432 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I realize this is a gold forum, and I have to confess I am not all that knowledgeable about the "ins and outs" of gold trading, but it seems to me if one is concerned about the total collapse of (world) governmental and societal systems, then a more basic approach would be appropriate.

Guns, ammo, food and even items such as toilet paper and soap would seem to be a better investment. These are items which can be bartered with the "common" people, i.e., your friends, neighbors and others with whom you come in contact; you can't eat gold.

You cannot avoid the commercials in all media these days who are touting gold as an investment. I once heard that when your taxi driver is buying (any investment), it is time to sell. Further, although there is a lot of ad space given to gold purchases, the government has not said, to my knowledge, a single word about it. I worry more about what the government doesn't say than what it does. They may not have the resources to go to each home to confiscate gold but they sure have the capability to examine and seize contents of so-called safety deposit boxes in each bank. They also have the capability to, and probably will, pass a law banning the use of gold in trading. It may not be any more effective than the "war on drugs" has been but will provide punishment for those caught.

As far as keeping a store in a bank, especially in other countries, what if travel restrictions to other countries were imposed? Or an EMP (highly likely now that Iran and other countries hostile to the West have nuclear capability) took out the electronics across a nation? Or martial law (also highly likely) is declared and travel is restricted?

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 16:54 | 239421 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I realize this is a gold forum, and I have to confess I am not all that knowledgeable about the "ins and outs" of gold trading, but it seems to me if one is concerned about the total collapse of (world) governmental and societal systems, then a more basic approach would be appropriate.

Guns, ammo, food and even items such as toilet paper and soap would seem to be a better investment. These are items which can be bartered with the "common" people, i.e., your friends, neighbors and others with whom you come in contact; you can't eat gold.

You cannot avoid the commercials in all media these days who are touting gold as an investment. I once heard that when your taxi driver is buying (any investment), it is time to sell. Further, although there is a lot of ad space given to gold purchases, the government has not said, to my knowledge, a single word about it. I worry more about what the government doesn't say than what it does. They may not have the resources to go to each home to confiscate gold but they sure have the capability to examine and seize contents of so-called safety deposit boxes in each bank. They also have the capability to, and probably will, pass a law banning the use of gold in trading. It may not be any more effective than the "war on drugs" has been but will provide punishment for those caught.

As far as keeping a store in a bank, especially in other countries, what if travel restrictions to other countries were imposed? Or an EMP (highly likely now that Iran and other countries hostile to the West have nuclear capability) took out the electronics across a nation? Or martial law (also highly likely) is declared and travel is restricted?

Sun, 02/21/2010 - 10:25 | 239159 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

There seem to be some scams related to Tungsten and Gold.
abdul

Fri, 02/19/2010 - 10:07 | 237409 Simple
Simple's picture

just make a gold tax for excessive trading (quotes..) like for carbon tax and then exchange these contracts...

Fri, 02/19/2010 - 02:01 | 237205 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

A few postings ago there was the discussion about taking the physical gold (all or part of it) outside North America to a place were it will be less probable to be confiscated if the crash becomes ugly enough.
We were, my wife and I, analyzing that possibility already. Yes, we have double citizenship. We like the idea of outside the country vaults, but.....there are some countries were it is AGAINST THE LAW to remove/export physical gold out of the country.
The ones that I know of are: ARGENTINA and, recently announced CHINA (not sure about VENEZUELA). If they find some gold while you are doing the security check, when you're leaving, it is confiscated - no questions asked.

Apparently there is no problem (today) in Canada/USA if you try to IMPORT physical gold from USA/Canada, they deliver it by courier - no problem.
I'm not sure if ANY other destination country will block (or even confiscate) the gold while you try to enter it, but...considering the state of madness out there, nothing will surprise me.

If the total value today of the gold transported is over 20,000 USD, I suppose you need to DECLARE it when entering the other country (to prove that it's not money laundering, etc).
Although (today) may not be illegal to import gold, what a great way to increase the scarce gold supply of a country by confiscating it from an un-informed passenger by an un-informed customs officer.

Moreover if you place it in the carry-on, the coins will trigger an alert at the security check - so it would be great to know THAT TRANSPORTING GOLD between two countries is FULLY LEGAL (today) - and in which ones is illegal. A list of main countries will be even better - and should be updated regularly because it could change at ANY MOMENT WITHOUT NOTICE (that's why I included "today").
I will appreciate if somebody can post some site links about the current LAW in these matters in USA, Canada or Italy.

You will be also surprised of the ignorance of most of the custom agents about gold - and that's another problem - they are not used to deal with this issue.
Phoning Customs should give you the answer, but they give contradictory information and when you ask as to WERE IT IS WRITEN in the law, they start passing the phone call to others - scary!. Looks like they are shooting for an answer just to avoid this annoying guy (me) with a funny accent asking silly questions!.
So...provided that you get the current law, updated on the same day that you're leaving, you should take a print of the law with you, just in case! (or am I paranoid?).

Thank you guys, this site, and your comments are extraordinary!. - a truly gold mine!.

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 15:35 | 238834 DosZap
DosZap's picture

"The ones that I know of are: ARGENTINA and, recently announced CHINA (not sure about VENEZUELA)."

Two Dictatorships, and one with a less than stellar record of economics 101

 Doug Casey, said that if you relocate to Argentina(he loves it,lives there, and is building a super getaway, residential area there NOW), that to keep your $ in financial institutions across the river, in Uraguay.

Far more stable, but Argentina is the PLACE to hang your hat.........less expensive, better everything, except for that.$

Bang for buck, best place on earth hands down, from his travels.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 16:57 | 236091 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I like nuggets straight out of the ground. No paper trail. assay varies a little but they are still worth more than spot simply because less than 1 percent is found in this form. I have no problem disposing of them to a ready market.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 14:38 | 235693 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Another good clear article J.S. Thank you.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 12:42 | 235508 order6102
order6102's picture

This article simple WRONG. By CFTC reporting rule gold mine, gold producer, gold refiner, gold seller, gold shop all will be commercial... Banks and CTA and fast money will be NON commercial. So if you friendly local coin dealer sell futures on COMEX - he will be qualified as commercial account... I been running gold business for over 20yrs, and i always short futures against long inventory and in CFTC reporting i qualify as commercial account. 

Mon, 02/22/2010 - 17:24 | 240674 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

you're not in kansas anymore, dorothy. i think you MISTAKENLY believe that the article is wrong because you believe false textbook explanations of how CFTC reporting works. textbook explanations state that US banks still maintain a 10% RRR and this is not true. 10 yrs from now, textbooks will still state that the US Federal Reserve never intervenes in US stock markets.

other gold experts, like Jim Sinclair, that have studied CFTC reports for decades, state that the author is correct.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary:
“This is the IMF sale from a different viewpoint. It is easy to understand, and accurate.”
IMF Gold Sales v. the Alchemy of Gold Futures – What’s the Impact on Gold Prices?

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 14:03 | 235644 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The article is NOT wrong but straight to the point right.

Wondering about your agenda here.

BTW, good luck with your shorting.

Fri, 02/19/2010 - 00:17 | 237082 order6102
order6102's picture

agenda very simple - guy doesn't know how CFTC reporting works, so i hope he can learn something. I am NOT short gold. Long inventory, short future. Thats protect me in case of price movement in ether direction. Gold business is SPREAD business as any other business. I charge spread to my customer and i am net flat...

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 14:37 | 235692 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ah I see you've met shits in hand.

Fri, 02/19/2010 - 00:15 | 237079 order6102
order6102's picture

i will tell your mommy - you playing with computer again! this is not 4yr old forum... And if you start to follow every tick - you will never grow up, kiddy...

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 15:01 | 235724 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

...you owe me a keyboard Heph.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 14:33 | 235473 BernankeCo
BernankeCo's picture

Good article As long as greed and ignorance are the dominant themes affecting humans, they will continue to prosper. The Banksters and their FLUNKY FED loaded DEBT on US Citizens while also removing their Wealth by shipping Entire Industries overseas! They produced a massive consumption Economy to produce massive DEBT and USURY GREED to exploit and manipulate nearly ALL AMERICANS!
Prepare for the CRASH that will make this recession look like a joke.
move 401 K savings from Wall Street into real assets.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 11:21 | 235378 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Yes, excellent article!

How will we see the coming disconnect between paper price and physical price? How will it manifest itself?  I would guess we will start with a growing and then continuing slight state of backwardation in the futures markets.  Wasn't this the  case back in November for a time?  Also I'd bet the price for physical will increasingly be "sticky" despite periodic drops in the Comex price.  We might also expect shortages of bars and coins of certain types and in certain places, and that these shortages will become more frequent.

Anything else to look for? 

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 15:24 | 238830 DosZap
DosZap's picture

The answer is a total collapse of confidence in paper as a storehouse of value...................

But, the wise, will have LONG since been out of their game.

One example, and a small one, but of import.

CitiBank................you saw the article I am sure.How in hades, do you make a statement THEY have the right to NOT give you funds from your CHECKING account, w/out a 7 day notice?.

Don't know about most folks here, but I use a checking account to pay what debts I owe............this is an insane statement from Citi.

Look for a run, next week.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 11:16 | 235372 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Once the first of the larger hedgefunds demands physical delivery, the COMEX will default after everybody is seeking the exit while the gold price will shoot to the moon.

It's common sense.

The physical market will burn up the ETF scams and the whole paper market in hours. History will be made.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 11:09 | 235362 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Thanks for the great post.

Now I want to know how we, the humble blog reader, can assist in blowing up the system.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 11:08 | 235360 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yup, all this paper can be confusing (obfuscating?)a little bit. but as my teenage daughter would say, .."....Ya know what?"

Everyone knows what gold is: From an African digging in a ditch in Zimbabwe to the Cabbie in Moscow, From a Businessman in London to a Farmer in Missouri--all know what gold is. Hell, even out of work stock traders know what it is.

...and soon that will be enough.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 11:07 | 235358 Carl Marks
Carl Marks's picture

Doesn't this make it easier for someone (Soros or Paulson maybe) to corner the market by demanding delivery?

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 11:03 | 235352 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You should see how many items don't really assay up like they are suppose to . At work (I own several pawnshops ) we have a xray machine and most of the items we see are very weak kareted .

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 10:58 | 235347 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"should have had 944.90 physical metric tonnes of gold in their vaults"

Oh really? Aren't COMEX shorts cash-settled?

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 10:42 | 235326 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

All you need to know:

Take PHYSICAL DELIVERY NOW !

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 10:21 | 235311 subarctictom
subarctictom's picture

Nicely done , good observations. -This is a good jumpstart for those just getting in to metals.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 10:21 | 235310 subarctictom
subarctictom's picture

Nicely done , good observations. -This is a good jumpstart for those just getting in to metals.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 10:09 | 235301 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Great freakin article! Nice work!

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 10:09 | 235300 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

MarketTruth, have you looked at the SGOL?

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 10:01 | 235292 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

You know, I do not believe a damn word these bankers/comex/etc. have to say. Hell, we don't even know if Fort Knox still holds gold, much less comex. These fuckers have annexed our asses.

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 15:13 | 238827 DosZap
DosZap's picture

It's doesn't, Ft Knox is empty.........

What was there, went to the BIG NYC bank depositories years ago.

It's a just a RUSE.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 10:12 | 235303 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

A great deal of the supposed Fort Knox gold, if it even still exists, would be coin melt gold (22kt) and therefore not meeting good delivery requirements.  If they've sold it, they'd probably have had to refine it first.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 10:31 | 235322 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Really? Sold it for what? Assayed gold? Like a crooked pawn shop fencing operation? They stole it. They don't need paper. They make the shit.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 10:06 | 235297 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

It s a black box - whatever you do don't look inside it , it could blow up.

I like to imagine that inside is a small tape recorder endlessly repeating the phrase - what took you so long sucker -

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 09:45 | 235287 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

But the question is when this will blow up - the central bankers have the power to bankrupt us all before this is all over.

Excellent article by the way

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 12:31 | 235501 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Imagine if the Weimar Republic's citizens all wised up to the destruction of a central banker's printing press and consolidated all their savings independently into gold AND BURIED IT IN THE EARTH away from the depredations of state thievry.

What an inheritance to the fortunate descendants once revolution, war, or prudent management returned to their land. No need for robbery and cunning snares to leave one bereft. For THIS TOO SHALL PASS.

Reichmarks from that era? Not so much.

Word to the wise.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 09:31 | 235282 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Believe that GLD and SLV etfs are now deliverable against COMEX futures contracts- now you can receive new paper for old....no shortage here, move along....

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 11:51 | 235419 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Untrue, was a false rumor. Physical demand on contract must be settled with delivery... or 'bribe' (pay xx% over the face value of the contract in cash instead of physical delivery)

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 15:11 | 238825 DosZap
DosZap's picture

This is exactly why the Gv't should NEVER allow the formations of ETF Funds.

This is just as bad as OTC Derivatives..........

BS on the Bribe, and dollars/more BS fiat crap.

PM ETF's, should be required by Federal Law, to deliver the real deal.

That said, where would the price be on the REAL deal, if that were the case?.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 09:30 | 235280 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Excellent article and spot on! Those of us serious gold traders know the truth and your article is written in such a way that newbies to the gold market can better understand some of the inner working, as it were, and why one should always take physical delivery of contracts (or buy bars, coins, etc from dealers).

Have been posting about the possible fraud of GLD here on ZH for some time now.....

Read GLD's 10-k filing at www.spdrgoldshares.com/media/GLD/file/10k_Sept08.pdf and pay special attention to pages 54 to 62.

ASK YOURSELF: do you really trust that these ETFs have the gold they claim and GLD's counterparties that store said gold are not leasing it out or creating/forming/leveraging some other paper gold on top of their paper gold. As an example, GLD can hold NOT GOOD bars for proper delivery to the market and they do not insure their gold holding. Add to that, there are many other serious situations one should consider before choosing GLD or other ETFs.

Take physical delivery of gold... always!

Sat, 02/20/2010 - 15:08 | 238819 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I would NEVER buy bars anymore................China has figured out a way to clone your butt hair.............( jk).

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 11:18 | 235376 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I have duel citizenship in US and a not to be named,
almost bankrupt, European Country.
I am currently in the US and I am considering storing my PM's in Zurich, where we also have relatives.(FWIW)
I would like to hear your thoughts and experiences with storing PM's in Zurich (or other non US cities, for that matter) I am a bit concerned about confiscation...

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 14:42 | 235696 nikku
nikku's picture

Confiscation may not be a major risk, but it is a valid risk to plan for.  If you have access to an unleveraged (old-fashioned) swiss bank--often run by a family--you should keep your physical gold there.  It is true that gold is not currently an official currency, but in the (again) possible (even if not probable--yet) scenario of a near or total collapse in Fiat currencies, and the chance that the only way a country can once again be credible is by backing their currency with metals--you could see gold confiscation here in the United States.  Another commentor said that "not enough Americans own physical gold."  He/she must be forgetting about US ETFs: the easiest target for a surprise confiscation.  If they do it like they did it last time, everything would be frozen, the price would be set higher than the current market, but less than the eventual devaluation.  So yes, why not keep your gold in a totally segregated account, in a vault you can go visit anytime you're in Switzerland?

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 13:53 | 235629 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

When gold was stolen, i mean confiscated, from USA citizens decades ago we must remember that gold was used as daily currency as was paper (dollar). Thus gold was money too. If we fast-forward to today, gold is technically not money as it was back then, so DO NOT FALL FOR those trying to sell you pre-1933 coins as being 'private' gold or some other load of BS. Today, gold is simply another item of value and, as such, it would be nearly impossible to recall as they did the 30s plus USA holders of gold would probably be very reluctant to simply give their gold up at any price because they are smart enough to realize that whatever gold value is upon confiscation, it will be revalued higher once this government scheme is 'complete'.

As for holding gold in other countries, this is a smart idea and is legal. Especially in your case where you have dual citizenship. Many people do not realize that $100,000 USD of gold weights a mere 6.6 lbs. or so (three 999 kilo bars).

To surmise, holding some items outside of the USA as a safety net is a good idea. Avoid the pre-1933 coin (scam imho) and simply choose known good bars such as Pamp/Credit Suisse with assay, JM bars or coins such as Krugerrands. In non-USA countries the premium one pays for GAEagles is rarely 'paid back'. Call it a lower spread on buy versus sell pricing for GAEagles versus known good bars as previously mentioned. Hopefully this information was helpful to you. As always DYOD and am simply a person on the Internet with my personal point of view and experience.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 20:27 | 236757 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Thanks for the response.I agree with you on the pre
1933 coinage. Lots of scams out there.
I am completely in Maple Leafs. Looks like I will
place half in Switzerland.
This is the only downside I have experienced so far with Gold, where to actually store it. Big problem though...

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 12:50 | 235542 Shameful
Shameful's picture

I'm in the camp that thinks there will not be a gold confiscation in the US because so few Americans own physical. I think that other wealth assets will be seized like 401ks but not so sure about gold. But if I was you I would store some of it with them. I'm working on an angle to try to get dual citizenship in Europe, but need a court case to finish in that country first before I apply. You can never be to safe better to have it in more than location if you can trust your family.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 13:35 | 235607 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Really can't trust anyone with Au, being a concentrated source of wealth, easy to take flight with. My thinking at this point is to store half in a Zurich bank.
No experience with Swiss banks though.
I could cash out the 401K's , convert to Gold and store that
in Zurich. Little doubt in my mind that 401K's are going to
be a complete loss, especially after going through Sept, 08

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 14:59 | 235722 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Well it depends on situation. I'm leaving a chunk of my gold with my parents, but I trust them completely. I agree that Swiss Bank is probably safe, at least safer then US banks for safety deposit boxes and the like. I was considering doing the same in Singapore if I go there in the winter and making a deposit.

Agree with you that 401ks will be seized, I already liquidated mine and bought physical. Though I didn't have much because I'm a young guy.

Flying with gold I'm not 100% on unless it's Gold Eagles or otherwise currency denominated. Would prefer not to declare to Uncle Sugar that I am moving a lot of money in coins around with me. Luckily things like Eagles are denominated in dollars as are some other coins which has gotten me off of packing bullion. While I don't think they will do a gold grab I expect TSA to turn into looters spawned by the fiery depths of Satan's anus.

Good luck to you sir! Glad to see other American's trying to make sure they will have assets well positioned if/when the dollar collapses.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 17:02 | 236110 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Thanks, I fly back and forth between IAD and Oak with maple
leafs (roughly 15 Maples at a time) in carry on , and no one has ever questioned me about the maples.

Thu, 02/18/2010 - 08:36 | 235271 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

if your bearish and have a big mouth...pony up...

Gold market analyst Peter Grandich could not be more enthusiastic about tonight's announcement by the International Monetary Fund that it will sell another 191 tonnes of gold. In commentary headlined "Even When Opportunity Knocks a Man Still Has to Get Up Off His Seat and Open the Door," Grandich writes that the IMF announcement could actually hasten gold's rise:

http://grandich.agoracom.com/2010/02/gold-update-%e2%80%9ceven-when-oppo...

But then Grandich puts his money where his mouth is. In commentary headlined "An Open Challenge," he offers gold bears a $50,000 bet that gold will see $1,200 per ounce before $1,000 per ounce:

http://grandich.agoracom.com/2010/02/an-open-challenge/

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