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IMF Resumes Direct Gold Dumping, Sells 10 Tons Of The Shiny Metal To Bangladesh

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It has been a while since the IMF sold gold directly to sovereign countries. Today that changed, as once again the IMF is either telegraphing it is happy with a gold price of $1,250 (although its sales last year did not prevent gold from surging to record highs as of two days ago), or that it is increasingly poorer (as it is now solely supporting a broke Europe, that would not be surprising). Dow Jones reports that the IMF just sold $403 million dollars, or 10 metric tons, to Bangladesh (yeah Bangladesh). As the IMF has sold 190 tons in off market transactions, and another 90 tons in the open market, the entity that has been pitching the SDR rather aggressively lately may soon hit its 400 ton quota. Although just like the US debt ceiling, that is merely a limit to be broken. Oddly enough, the direct buyers from the IMF continue to be monetary backwaters such as Mauritius, Sri Lanka and India... and now Bangladesh: at least ever more Asian countries are starting to get the gist of what is happening with the dollar. And once China is discovered to be directly or indirectly buying IMF gold, the all bets are off on the gold price hitting $1,600 in under two years. And this will happen even as Bangladesh realizes that it can't, gasp, eat the gold.

From Dow Jones

The International Monetary Fund said Thursday it sold 10 metric tons of gold to the Bangladesh's central bank worth $403 million based on Tuesday's market prices.

The IMF has been steadily selling a portion of its holdings in the market since early in the year, coordinating the effort with regularly scheduled sales by European central banks in order to avoid market disruptions.

The sales are part of the IMF's plan to offload 403.3 metric tons of gold to create a more stable income model and boost support for low-income countries.

About 212 metric tons were sold off-market to central banks of India, Mauritius and Sri Lanka last November, and the fund said in February it would begin phased sales to the market of the remaining 191.3 metric tons.

The IMF said, as of end July, a further 88.3 metric tons had been sold under the on-market sales announced in February.


h/t London Dude Trader

 

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Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:21 | 573442 liberal sodomy
liberal sodomy's picture

I've given up trying to trade this crap in new york which is the only center in the world that sells it, every God damned day.

I just buy the coins and am waiting for the complete disconnect from the lousy paper gold.

 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:07 | 573582 TheWord
TheWord's picture

Where the hell did Bangladesh get $400m to buy 10t of gold?  Something doesn't smell right, here.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:16 | 573590 TheWord
TheWord's picture

Actually they do have the money.  Bangladesh has:

GDP: $94bn

External Debt: $23bn

Annual Govt tax revenues: $11bn

Annual Govt expenditures: $16bn

Total Govt reserves: $10.3bn (at 31/12/09)

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bg.html

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 09:58 | 573926 DeltaDawn
DeltaDawn's picture

Their debt/gdp ratio looks better than ours!

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 07:23 | 573717 digitalhermit
digitalhermit's picture

10 tons of gold is about 320,000 oz, a drop in the bucket. Nothing to see here. Move along!

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 07:58 | 573752 Thomas
Thomas's picture

CNBC's take...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1588378975&play=1

(2 minutes in)

Could anybody be this incoherent?

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 11:26 | 574125 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Triple Top...Distribution market....Dollar going up....Gold under pressure...Soros is selling...Gold will pull back to 1075....not a safe haven....pullback here.

Translation: Rally time!!!

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 11:28 | 574129 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

 

Triple Top...Distribution market....Dollar going up....Gold under pressure...Soros is selling...Gold will pull back to 1075....not a safe haven....pullback here.

 

Translation: Rally time!!!

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 12:16 | 574235 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I don't take financial advice from televangelists.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 06:58 | 573703 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

I tried trading my shares on this last PM rise.  Made a mess with my cleverness.  Should have just held my positions.  It's a crap shoot.  The dips are suddenly very shallow compared to the past two years.  Consolation is we are aware well ahead of the herd.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:24 | 573444 saulysw
saulysw's picture

I'm sick of saying this : you can eat gold. See further --

www.ediblegold.com

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 07:45 | 573739 Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

That must wreak havoc on the digestive system... hahaha, I wonder if the carats really improve eyesight?

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:23 | 573445 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

The banks know what's coming.  They sell at the top, and buy at the bottom.

Sure, they manipulate the market, but that's even more of a reason to stay out of the market altogether.

Still, they know which direction the wind is blowing in.

They're offloading the gold at top dollar.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:29 | 573455 saulysw
saulysw's picture

Like they did to India, when it was what... $1040?

I'm sure the Indians feel ripped off with their 200 tonnes at that "top dollar" price.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:35 | 573463 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

You'll see what's coming in gold, very soon.

The GLD is already turning back down, and the rising wedge failed to make a new high.

It's go time.

I'll make a promise right here and now.  If gold hits the Cup and Handle target of 1450, I'll never post here again.

if the rising wedge plays out, I expect some respect.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:05 | 573507 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

No, Johnny Bravo, do not self-censor yourself!  Keep us advised re your perspective re Gold.  I value your perspective...

If Gold goes to $1450, well OK, matters not to me.  If it goes to $900, then I back up the truck.

...

I still keep VXX in my sights...  I may snipe soon despite my rather dismal record as a speculator.

Shi'itesky!  Gold goes to $900, I will go to 10% in physical gold REAL FAST!

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:14 | 573515 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

You're one of the few people here that value that perspective.

That's why I want to leave if I'm wrong, as a sign of good faith.  If I'm right, I hope to be acknowledged as such.

As far as VXX, I think it might be a good trade for the next couple of days.  I think that the markets are turning south, but not for very long.

If the support at 1085ish on S&P breaks, I'd really buy it then.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:25 | 573600 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I like to trade also Johnny, I like your post.Not a chart guy, I read alot, quick look at charts before I trade. And I think the market will be above 12,000 nov. of next year due to inflation, and better than expected rebound.

A friend of mine works for a large trucking broker in the tri-state midwest area. He has been doing better and better,every month baby steps, another friend own's a large manufacturing plant, Cat is going to start giving him overflow work at the end of this month. Cat's mining sales growing very quickly, another good sign.

South America booming.Not everything is gloom and doom.

 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 03:52 | 573648 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

See?  Not everything is so bad.  I'm glad that somebody else can see that.

The transportation has been coming up for a while now.  And I also think that even though our economy has been slowing, it has been because everybody has been expecting a mid-recovery slowdown.  I think that that slowdown is already here, and now people are starting to look for the future.

My buddy's HVAC business is doing a lot better than it was a year ago.

South America is probably the best place to put money if you have mutual funds.  The T Rowe Price Brazil fund has been the best performer for a couple of years now.

Anyway, glad to see you agree!

Also, I used to use that exact avatar for a long time... I stole it from the evil speculator.  You read him at all?

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 04:17 | 573662 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

No I just finished Den of Thieves...

M.Milken, I.Boesky all the same tricks over and over and over.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 14:08 | 574545 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Johnny, I was just looking around on Newsvine and it looks like they really want you back over there.

Since you are clearly the king of junk on ZH, BEAT IT!

 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 14:13 | 574562 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Actually it looks like "Gangland" might catch up to you. Better stick around to preserve your legacy.

 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 14:43 | 574678 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Bravo, Peru is doing very well.  The Peruvian Sol is now at a record vs. the dollar.  Our business there is doing great, our only real problem is getting the exact bearings we need, the ones that sell the best!

Even though I have grave doubts about .gov and the banksters (and so am always looking at buying Gold when $ come in), it REALLY IS better for our country if they pull us out of this.  Can / will Obama do it?  I highly doubt it.  But, I am not a good a predictor of the future, just a very cautious guy having gotten burned (but lightly), and I really want my kid's future secure.

That's my job (and hers).

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 07:06 | 573706 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

I read where miners are scrambling to get more equipment so they can cash in on the coming gold rush.  Trucking companies that survived cut way back.  US Xpress emptied it's OKC terminal, just kept the shop going.  The big carriers cut back training because there was a surplus of experienced OTR drivers.  It's not back to normal, just better than it was.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 07:50 | 573744 SwapThis
SwapThis's picture

God help me but I agree with JB....short term gold down and the DXY up...

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 08:07 | 573764 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Even I agree, Gold goes down a bit. Correction is correction. Dollar up is just part of the unwind and hysteria equation. I sit and wait to back the truck up, like our "ball bearing" friend posting above. :-)

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 10:06 | 573944 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

My truck is more like a little red wagon, but I'm backing it up as well.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 14:44 | 574682 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

MsCreant, Rocky,

Gold goes down, and that "beep, beep, beep" sound is my truck backing up...

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 15:20 | 574762 living on the edge
living on the edge's picture

I have to agree, these corrections are great opportunities to add to our positions but also a great time for newbies to diversify into gold/silver.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:24 | 573526 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

OK, you will defintely get respect if Gold hits $900 before it hits $1450. I personally hope you are right, since I am not a trader and will soon be getting some cash. The metrics I use is gold/unit labor and it has been steady for decades in the foreign currency I track.

 

To be fair you did pick the last intermediate top at $1265 a few months ago.

 

 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 03:54 | 573649 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Not to parce words, but I don't think it'll quite hit 900.  I'd say 950ish is more realistic.  It might not even break 1000.

You'll definitely be able to buy lower, I think.  I think that technicals for gold are pretty bearish for a while, but that doesn't mean forever either... 

There is a major correction coming, IMO.

Thank you SO much for acknowledging that I picked that top.  It's nice to get respect from somebody!

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 06:08 | 573685 zhandax
zhandax's picture

Quit feeding the strays, folks.  Read the first comment under the 'Genetics Of Investing - Kill The Messenger': "I'm really not trolling here, I promise", (our own starling, JB)

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:50 | 573561 AUD
AUD's picture

Can you make that $1248?

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 03:55 | 573652 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

If you don't have anything nice to say...  Go fuck yourself.  

:)

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 04:26 | 573665 AUD
AUD's picture

$1249 then?

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 10:11 | 573950 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

I want to hear more about the job fairs from the resident dbag

 

Fewer employers turn out for CU-Boulder job fair

Read more: http://www.coloradodaily.com/rss/ci_14885692#ixzz0z35v9lYS
Coloradodaily.com

 

 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:07 | 573581 saulysw
saulysw's picture

"I'll make a promise right here and now.  If gold hits the Cup and Handle target of 1450, I'll never post here again."

You are on.

"if the rising wedge plays out, I expect some respect."

Fair enough, I'll accept that too. If it hits $900, I'll show some.

Let's see where we get to first.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 03:57 | 573653 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I don't say quite 900, but otherwise, I'll hold to everything else you said.

If there's a 200-250+ move downward, I want respect.

If it hits 1400 first, I'll leave.  Kay?

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 07:04 | 573705 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Stay, go, do as you wish.  Show some humility and stop placing so much importance on yourself. 

Your smugness has kept you from seeing that half the "Goldbugs" here have agreed with you that gold is gonna take a huge hit.  We just believe it's gonna skyrocket after that.  And when it does, your technicals won't matter anymore.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 10:12 | 573954 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

You're either a college student as you say or a shill/troll, either way you have no skin in the game anyway so don't count on ever gaining any respect.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 14:50 | 574695 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I have already explained to you guys that Bravo and his boss JonNadler are Senior VPs over there at JPM, and their $10,000,000 bonuses are in peril if Gold does not go down to, well OK, $950.

College student, mi culo!        :)

 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 12:47 | 574315 doggings
doggings's picture

20-25 more like, i doubt it'll break 1100 ever again.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 13:00 | 574340 Nucking Futs
Nucking Futs's picture

Not sure how much gold is going to go down but I agree, it looks like we're in for a down leg.  Daily charts are posting a lower low.  MACD showing a bearish crossover.  Bearish divergence on the Stochastics a couple of days ago.  Weekly showing a double top.  Looks as if the winds are changing/changed directions.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 07:28 | 573720 HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

So, gold goes up 20% in the 10 months since they bought it and they got ripped off? Maybe they should have bought General Motors stock or 30 year treasury bonds at 3% or Greek bonds? They've still got a couple good months to beat an annual 20% return. The Dow's up .12% for the year.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:41 | 573472 WilliamShatner
WilliamShatner's picture

Central banks have been buying lately and the IMF is selling gold because it's almost broke.

Do your research.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:43 | 573476 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Like I said a minute ago.

If gold hits its "cup and handle" target, I will never post here again.

If the rising wedge breaks down, I want to hear all the haters say I was right.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:48 | 573481 WilliamShatner
WilliamShatner's picture

I don't care if you stay or if you go.

Just do your research, the deck is stacked in favor of gold going up.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:55 | 573495 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I disagree wholeheartedly.  Look at the charts.  There are massive divergences, and a very bearish pattern (rising wedge) on those charts.

I do research in a different way.  The same way that HFT computers do research.  Technical Analysis.  It's much more reliable.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:04 | 573578 Frank Owen
Frank Owen's picture

You're stuck in the matrix, dumb-ass.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:05 | 573579 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

What the fuck does that even mean?

Maybe I like to base my investing on reality, instead of movie themes.

Watch gold drop tomorrow, dumb-ass.

And the S&P too... 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:08 | 573583 Frank Owen
Frank Owen's picture

1 minute after my post! damn you're fast.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:13 | 573587 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I'm awesome too.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:49 | 573616 Frank Owen
Frank Owen's picture

You certainly are. it takes a certain amount of awesomeness to do research "The same way that HFT computers do research.  Technical Analysis.  It's much more reliable."

Again - You're stuck in the matrix, dumb-ass.

 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 03:58 | 573654 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

The world IS the matrix.

By choosing to live outside of reality, you are not dealing in reality.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 10:10 | 573948 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Spoken like a loyal slave.

Enjoy your vicious gangrape.  You probably will, being a masochist. 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 14:19 | 574593 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

By choosing to live in what you call 'reality' you are left vulnerable to catastrophe when the government and Fed completely lose their grips on the economy. And all of history (not to mention logic, reason, and just common sense) tells us this will happen sooner or later, and nobody can predict when, because it's bigger than simple technical analysis.

You do realize the name 'Zero Hedge' is kinda tongue-in-cheek, don't you? That 'hope' is not a strategy? Believing in a non-existent economic recovery is 'hope'. It's fine to hope for the best, but only if you are prepared for the worst.

You can't trade your way through a total collapse.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 10:14 | 573956 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

So far both are up - amazing. "I like to base my investing" LOLOLOL sure

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 08:00 | 573755 rickardswhite
rickardswhite's picture

Hey Johnny.....

 

Run this through your HFT. Divergences and a pattern to match. Price is kind of ironic don't you think???

I'll give you a lolly pop if you can tell me what happens next.

http://i51.tinypic.com/1qg5zs.png

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 10:22 | 573971 PeterSchump
PeterSchump's picture

That chart is the reason sound money management is necessary for any trading strategy.  Everything points to short.  Without a tight stop loss, you're a window jumper.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:51 | 573488 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

But you're wrong about so many things, Johnny. Why would we lie?

With Hate, Crockett

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:53 | 573492 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

You really can't name one of them.

Here's another thing that I'll be right on tomorrow:
The S&P will be down, and start a new downtrend tomorrow.

Gold will also be down.

The people on this site have been lying as long as I've been here.  Either that, or they've been wrong all along.
S&P to 450?  I've been hearing that since it was at 750.

Gold to 2000, or 5000, or 54000?  Can't say how many times I've heard that in the last year.  All wrong.  All lies.

With Love, 

Johnny Bravo

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:14 | 573516 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

You really can't name one of them.


I can name five of them.

1) You said that the Industrial Revolution didn't really take off until the 20th century, when in reality, the Industrial Revolution was a 18th and 19th century phenomenon.

2) You recently claimed that gold would top at 1220.

3) You said that all your predictions come true.

4) You said that money that is not legal tender has no value despite the fact that some Western nations had no legal tender laws until the 19th or 20th century.

5) You said that when you are wrong you admit you are wrong.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:20 | 573528 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Three of those are the same thing.

I admitted that I was wrong on gold topping at 1220.  Still, that's more bearish than if it would have topped then.

Pretty much all of my predictions are true.  I've been wrong a few times, but I'm right more often than not, and my trading account reflects that.

The effects of the Industrial Revolution were the largest in the early 20th century.  Electricity, automobiles, airplanes, automatic rifles, and on and on.
Just because I have an opinion doesn't mean I'm wrong.

I never said that money that is not legal tender has no value.  This is something you made up, extrapolating from my other posts.
What I did say is that the dollar has value because it's legal tender.
By the way, the dollar has been up lately unless you haven't noticed.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:40 | 573550 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

The effects of the Industrial Revolution were the largest in the early 20th century.  Electricity, automobiles, airplanes, automatic rifles, and on and on.
Just because I have an opinion doesn't mean I'm wrong.

You are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts. The Industrial Revolution was a era when industry was new and thus revolutionary. Industry continues to this day; the Industrial Revolution as a historical period does not.

 

I never said that money that is not legal tender has no value.  This is something you made up, extrapolating from my other posts.

But you did, Johnny, you did.

by Johnny Bravo
on Sun, 08/15/2010 - 20:42
#523090

If a currency was voluntary, as opposed to legal tender, it wouldn't be worth anything.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:43 | 573557 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

If you have a currency that is not legal tender, you can't make anybody take it.  Sure it has value, but not to anybody.

You can have all the gold you want.  (As an example.)

If nobody wants gold, it isn't worth anything.

If you offered somebody gold, they could easily refuse.  

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:55 | 573564 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

If you have a currency that is not legal tender, you can't make anybody take it.  Sure it has value, but not to anybody.

I think you mean, "but not to everybody." Important distinction.

 

If you offered somebody gold, they could easily refuse. 

People don't have to take legal tender either.

 

And just to make it official are you now admitting that you were wrong when you said: "If a currency was voluntary, as opposed to legal tender, it wouldn't be worth anything?" Will you also admit that you falsely accused me of making up the quote?

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:12 | 573586 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I believe you used the example of cigarettes when I made that post.

What good is a cigarette to somebody that doesn't smoke?
I can't pay my cable bill with cigarettes (or gold).  They HAVE to take dollars though.

So I misworded what I said when I said "but not to anybody" instead of "but not to everybody."

People say the wrong word all the time.  You know what I meant.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:22 | 573594 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

You know what I meant.

I usually have no idea what you mean. Your thoughts are ill formed and badly worded.

 

I believe you used the example of cigarettes when I made that post.

What good is a cigarette to somebody that doesn't smoke?

Who cares what the example was? You said: "If a currency was voluntary, as opposed to legal tender, it wouldn't be worth anything." You didn't merely say "Cigarettes have no value to a nonsmoker." If you don't want folks to point out your errors then stop making sweeping statements which are easily disproved. I didn't put the words in your mouth -- your compulsive desire to shout down anyone who points out your errors put those words in your mouth.

Ironic, huh?

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:44 | 573611 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

What's ironic is that you pick at little words in sentences instead of taking the post at its intended point.

You parce words and play a bunch of bullshit games, and you think it makes you inferior, when you make the same broad statements.

You made the same type of general statement, and I can name a million examples where your general statement wasn't valid.

Now, you're bringing up an old argument into a discussion where it means little, or nothing.

Still, you can't make anybody take cigarettes, you can't make anybody take gold.
You CAN make somebody take dollars.

Voluntary currencies are worthless if nobody takes them.

Wampum is the shit to Indians.  Do I care about wampum?  Nope.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:56 | 573624 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

What's ironic is that you pick at little words in sentences instead of taking the post at its intended point.

What does that have to do with irony? Do you own a dictionary? I suppose not; it would explain a lot about your inability to successfully communicate with others.

 

You CAN make somebody take dollars.

No one has to take dollars. Are you claiming that if one of your buddies offers you US Dollars for a JB BJ then you'd be forced to accept the offer?

 

Wampum is the shit to Indians.  Do I care about wampum?  Nope.

Wampum having had value to Native Americans in a particular epoch is yet another example of why you were wrong when you said: "If a currency was voluntary, as opposed to legal tender, it wouldn't be worth anything." And yet you still will not overtly admit your error. Amazing.

 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 03:12 | 573631 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Your stupid fucking games do little to prove your point.  I'm done arguing with them.

Please refrain from responding to my posts in the future.

I'm sick of your shit.  Really.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 03:37 | 573643 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Johnny, oil futures up 2%, not sure that bull is letting up off the gas tomorrow.Got RIMM ?

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 04:02 | 573655 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I see your point on the oil for sure, but it could go down if the rest of the markets do.  It kind of seems like it follows the trend of the major indices.

I'd be careful about RIMM, both long term and short term.  Short term, their chart pattern looks pretty bad, although it may bounce soon.
Long term, it's a Droid and Apple world as far as phones go.

I think MOT has the best chance of profiting from this.  I'd recommend Apple, but I think it's already priced into their stock.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 04:36 | 573659 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Rimm has tons of cash. Revenue going up long term trend, net margin 18%.One of the companies they just bought out has a unique platform for mobil business. I think the black pad will be geared for business management ect...?

They have most business friendly email, india, china, s.american business folk love rimm. They have a good brand & with the cash and the huge drop already 60% ? They can make up time on the smart phone shit with buyouts going forward. IMHO

They have a strong base in the business world.I like this ...

Or what if Microsoft buys them out, oh I can only dream maybe a bidding war.

 

Up 7% since last tuesday.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 07:31 | 573726 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Crockett, you are relentless. Right in this instance and relentless. As for Johnny, I don't think the site cares whether you come or go. Some of your observations have been astute, others not so much.

As for legal tender, you don't have to force someone to take good currency. Further, paper does not have value because of legal tender laws. It merely has the power of the state requiring its' use. Value is an economic term- not to be used philosophically as in this case. Currency has value based on the amount in circulation and what you can buy with it on the market. 

All governments are inflationary in a fractional reserve system, therefore, all currency they issue has a declining value. At certain points, it becomes worthless(see weimar republic and zimbabwe). Faith is not a basis for value.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 09:27 | 573874 demsco
demsco's picture

Johnny,

 

All your predictions come true? OK, please post pictures of your mansions with a copy of today's paper please. You must be loaded, so prove it. I am so sick of internet people shooting their mouth off when I am certain you live in your moms basement. As for your rising wedge, the S&P had a rising wedge in August of last year, sorry, what happened to the S&P? Oh, it went up. Technicals mean shit now on a longer term basis and ignoring sentiment is retarded. I don't know you. I do not know your predictions, but I do know you are full of shit. If you are for real, post a picture of your home, rolex, Rolls Royce with todays newspaper and your drivers license so we know "all your predictions come true." 

 

BTW, I could care less about what the price of gold goes.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 08:35 | 573789 tmosley
tmosley's picture

6) The USDX was at 85 in 1985.  It was 136 and above the whole year.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 08:46 | 573809 Sabremesh
Sabremesh's picture

He thought the Industrial Revolution was a 20th century phenomenon? Hahaha, oh my god what an ignorant twerp. Jesus, he is more clueless than I though possible. Do us a favour, JB and fuck off now, your comments are dragging this site down. 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 10:16 | 573959 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

He lied about the jobs fairs above too - poor BJ

 

Fewer employers turn out for CU-Boulder job fair

Read more: http://www.coloradodaily.com/rss/ci_14885692#ixzz0z35v9lYS
Coloradodaily.com

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:16 | 573524 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Johnny Bravo.

Like many here, I suspect that you are YET ANOTHER TREASURE here at ZH.  You are the only one here at ZH who has your own personal troll...

Although I disagree with you re Gold (although if you keep posting through the years that come as a FATHER, we'll see), I wish you all the best.

Gold, who knows?  $900?  $1650?  $55,000?  This matters only a little to me, as a father looking after his 24 yr old daughter...

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:24 | 573531 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

That's such a nice thing to say.  I really appreciate that very much.

I think that a lot of people here are treasures, but I see a lot less of them posting lately.

Some people, like that Howard Beale guy are brilliant.

I wish I could be in your shoes, looking at the daughter I love and planning for her future.  Truthfully, I'm not much older than your daughter.

I've always wished you the best, DoChen.  I'm glad you think favorably of me.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 10:14 | 573957 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

What good is a cigarette to somebody that doesn't smoke?

The GIs in WWII didn't have much use for nylons but they carried them anyhow.

Ask some guys who don't smoke in prison if cigarettes have any value.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 07:12 | 573709 boiow
boiow's picture

DCRB.  i like your tactics.  sucking up to JB so he stays on at ZH so we can have more sport.  class

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 14:57 | 574709 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Oh God, no!  I don't like sucking up to anybody, well, maybe wife, shhh...

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:33 | 573606 Testicular Cancer
Testicular Cancer's picture

Disagree with you about the gold but I hope you are right about the S&P. Heard several reports that HeliBen will prop up the markets for a month or two for the elections. It may go down a bit but I am not sure that Uncle Benny will allow a downtrend.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:39 | 573609 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

The S&P should be down tomorrow, but the correction is only going to bring it down to the 1080ish area.  It's in a really tight triangle now.  I don't know which way the triangle will resolve, but I'm sitting on my hands about it.

I think that the triangle could very well resolve to the upside as well.
I don't think that it's a prop job, I just think that the economy WILL get better.

Things are turning up in the economy.  The markets will reflect it eventually.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 03:12 | 573632 VeloSpade
VeloSpade's picture

JB, this is all just great stuff for you to share, but until it happens, no respect from me.  Now go get your fucking shine box!

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 04:04 | 573657 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

You better watch it making Goodfellas references like that.  You remember what happened to the guy that told Tommy that.  I don't fuck around either.  

It'll happen, by the way.. 

 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 08:39 | 573796 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Hey everybody, look!

JOHNNY BRAVO IS MAKING DEATH THREATS OVER THE INTERNET.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 15:42 | 574819 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Do you have any idea why humans are the dominant life form on the planet for the most part? We invented persistant hunting. Once we grew our big brains and started working tools and losing our hair we become jogging hunters. We would hunt in the middle of the day when it was hottest. Our strategy was simple. Harrass every non liquid cooled animal to death. Run at them at jogging pace make them run. Even though they are faster when they try to stop to rest we keep running and make them run more. We keep sweating and jogging, sweating and jogging. The pray finally heat strokes and we kill it and jog the meat back to camp which is fast walking behind us toward us.

So of course johnny is making death threats. In a bad money for good scam that's what you do. You continually dump the good money in a persistant hunting fashion. Threatening the good money holders until the supply of good money is exhausted and then the hunter becomes the hunted. Gold is out there making our entire economy run for it's fucking life every second of every day. It's gonna heat stroke the fed, it's going to heat stroke central banks, it's going to heat stroke the rich and the powerful. So it's not exactly a peaceful situation and yes threats are going to get made. But one thing is for certain everybody is going to run and sweat liquidity.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySO-gryuO-c

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 09:04 | 573841 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

LOL what a douchebag - I bet if you named the time and place 500 people would line up to kick your ass.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 10:16 | 573960 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

501

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 16:24 | 574936 ATM
ATM's picture

"Here's another thing that I'll be right on tomorrow:
The S&P will be down, and start a new downtrend tomorrow."

?

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 10:44 | 574007 Developers
Developers's picture

With Hate, Crockett

that's just funny.

 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 14:17 | 574586 midtowng
midtowng's picture

The IMF has sold about 300 tonnes out of the 400 tonnes they planned to smash gold with, and gold is $200 higher now. What happens when all of the 400 tonnes are sold and Europe's CB's don't start selling gold again? Where is the supply going to come from to smash gold with?

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:57 | 573567 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

But Johnny - there are two banks in this transaction. Which is the smart money and which is the dumb? I think the IMF is the latter - they need fiats and are selling barbarous relics. The Bangladesh CB is the smart money. What are their dollar reserves worth in a region swimming with dollar sellers? Every CB there must be wanting to front-run China's exit. 

What's your downside target on gold? Again, $20 or $200 moves matter little to me. I'm not trading technicals for short-term gains/losses. 

I get your thinking that this is the blow-off top in gold. I don't agree. The price action over the last 18 months suggests that gold will/is considered a store of wealth for people wanting to exit fiat. When people start selling sovereign bonds, where are they going to go? If a small fraction head to gold, it will pop. 

And if gold goes down $200, silver will drop to what $16 or so. I'll seriously back up a truck at the COMEX and try to start a run on that place. I think my gold/silver ratio needs a little more of the latter. 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:36 | 573608 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I think that gold could seriously get into the low 1000s or even triple digits.

I had a fib target calced out at the 925-950 range for this wedge, but I'm not so sure about that.  I think 1000 is an important psychological level.  I don't know if it can break that level.

I still see a 50% retracement in the 950ish area from the wedge.

Longer term, I think the final support that it hits is in the 600 area when things return to "normal".

If anything though, look at the gold chart.  it hasn't had a meaningful correction since 2008.  Things have to go down sometimes.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 08:00 | 573756 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Things aren't returning to "normal" anytime soon.

There are a variety of macroeconomic and fundamental issues in play with respect to this that are a lot larger than your charts.

These have been explained to you many times.

As for chartology, it's a hoax and we've seen two major H&S patterns, among the more reliable formations, reject violently on the SP500 just in the past couple of years.  You have evilspec drawing, what, extension waves x,y,z, and then what?

There is nobody right now who has much in the way of credible TA.  However, I agree on South America at least until the carry trade unwind comes back.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 08:43 | 573801 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Ohohohoho!  The pattern I predictted is coming into play here.  JB will continuously raise his target as becomes more and more wrong.  Before too long he will be screaming about how gold is going to plunge $300 to $1500.

Things have to go up sometimes too, JB.  When the world quakes in terror, and has time to think about how shitty the dollar is, where do you think they are going to turn in the next flight to safety?  The market has already told us.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 08:57 | 573831 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

JB, what time period are you talking about. I mean, I could claim gold 25,000 and never be wrong (just because it hasn't happened...) Are you claiming gold to 1000 before it hits 1450? Are you saying gold to 1000 in less than 30 days? What are you saying?

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 10:19 | 573965 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Wonder how you would have interpreted the head-and-shoulders pattern:

March, 2008 to June, 2009

The Privateer spotted the pattern early on and laid out the time frame for the break-out.

You would have been patting yourself on the back at every dip.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 07:25 | 573718 taraxias
taraxias's picture

@ JB

Still waiting for gold to go down I see. How many times will you come on here spewing the same garbage? It's been over a year now, you are proven wrong month after month and you still insist in posting the same rubbish.

Just own up to it. You are skint and not in a position to have ever bought any physical. Trust me I'd understand, after all no one on food stamps would be expected to buy gold.

Tell your wife to start her diet. When finally the SHTF, she'd be the only thing left you have to sell.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 07:51 | 573747 pachanguero
pachanguero's picture

Very boring Mr. one note.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:28 | 573452 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

everything from IMF is questionable.  is it a real sale?  is bangladesh really the buyer.  likely noise.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:32 | 573458 actour22
actour22's picture

Does it bother any gold bulls that literally everyone sees no downside risk to gold. People havent been this absolutely sure of the direction of a commodity since the NaZ hit 5000 and everyone knew it was going to 10000. Just a slight word of caution.. When everyone sees a guaranteed killing in a trade... you might want to look behind you because it may be you that gets skewered. 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:39 | 573469 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

That's exactly what I was saying yesterday.  NOBODY is bearish on gold.  

You can go to every single mainstream news site, and they all were predicting new highs.

I posted articles from Marketwatch, CNBC, Bloomberg, etc, all showing that all the writers (and posters in the forums) were all bullish.
This, plus the chart pattern in gold makes it a very bearish bet right now.

I've been trying to warn the people here, but my insights are not appreciated.

It's unfortunate.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:02 | 573571 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Johnny Bravo said: NOBODY is bearish on gold.


Google: bearish on gold

About 366,000 results (0.08 seconds)  Past month Search Results
  1. GoldBearish Indicators In Place For The Near-Term ... Aug 20, 2010 - This week we have sent out several messages to our Subscribers regarding the current market situation. Now, the markets have calmed down for the weekend, ...
    www.dailymarkets.com/.../gold-bearish-indicators-in-place-for-the-near-term/ - Cached
  2. Gold Rally Tracing Bearish Wedge Pattern :: The Market Oracle ... Aug 22, 2010 - Gold Rally Tracing Bearish Wedge Pattern :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website.
    www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22102.html - Cached
  3. Commodities Hit in Bearish Trading Day; Crude, Gold Futures Off at ... Aug 20, 2010 - Commodities were broadly lower amid a tough regular session for equities. Both gold and crude futures finished lower Crude-oil for September.
    community.nasdaq.com/.../commodities-hit-in-bearish-trading-day-crude-gold-futures-off-at-close.aspx?... - Cached
  4. Gold reacts on bearish global cues, silver drops - Bullion ... Aug 10, 2010 - Gold prices reacted downwards by Rs 60 per ten gram at the bullion market here today on the back of fresh selling from stockists and speculators, ...
    economictimes.indiatimes.com/.../Gold...on-bearish.../6288487.cms - Cached
  5. Bearish Pressure Building on iShares COMEX Gold Trust; IAU Aug 20, 2010 - iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) lost some ground during trading yesterday, but it appears there is some bullish pressure building up in the background.
    www.learningmarkets.com/.../bearish-pressure-building-on-ishares-comex-gold-trust-iau.html - Cached
  6. » bearish rising wedge pattern Gold Stock Trades Aug 19, 2010 - The S&P 500 broke out of a bearish rising wedge pattern last week after failing to hold the 200 day moving average four different times. ...
    goldstocktrades.com/blog/tag/bearish-rising-wedge-pattern/ - Cached
  7. Gold Set for a Bearish Correction Aug 30, 2010 - Gold prices have been rising substantially over the last few weeks, as the commodity is being seen more and more as a safe haven while the pace of the ...
    www.forexyard.com/blog/en/.../gold-set-for-a-bearish-correction/ - Cached
  8. Bearish Trading Alert for Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) Aug 11, 2010 - Bearish Trading Alert for Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) ... support and resistance levels for Barrick Gold Corporation are 41.88 and 43.27 respectively. ...
    www.marketintellisearch.com/articles/1039226.html - Cached
  9. SmarTrend's Candlestick Scanner Detects Possible Bearish Harami ... Aug 20, 2010 - SmarTrend's candlestick pattern scanner has detected a potential bearish harami candle pattern for shares of Allied Nevada Gold (AMEX:ANV). ...
    www.mysmartrend.com/.../smartrends-candlestick-scanner-detects-possible-bearish-harami-pattern-allie - Cached
  10. U.S. Millionaire Index Turns Sharply Bearish : Gold Stocks Daily Aug 25, 2010 - Gold stocks, Silver stocks, company reviews, and daily commentary on Gold and ... The move returns the index to mildly bearish territory after 12 straight ...
    goldstocksdaily.com/.../u-s-millionaire-index-turns-sharply-bearish/ - Cached

MoreFewer Search Options

September 2010   S M T W T F S   29 30 31 1 2 3 4   5 6 7 8 9 10 11   12 13 14 15 16 17 18   19 20 21 22 23 24 25   26 27 28 29 30 1 2   3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Today   None 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next  

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:30 | 573589 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

People were bearish on gold three weeks ago.  Notice that none of those is from the last three weeks.

Sentiments change over the span of weeks.

Google bullish on gold.  About 1,060,000 results (0.18 seconds) 

That's in the last TWO DAYS.  You found 1/3 of that in the last month, the most recent being August 25th.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:46 | 573612 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

People were bearish on gold three weeks ago.  Notice that none of those is from the last three weeks.

Johnny, do you know how to use a calendar? I can find more than one link on that list from less than three weeks ago. Can you admit your error?  How many of the total 366,000 results did you review? Lots of current information there.

 

Google bullish on gold.  About 1,060,000 results (0.18 seconds) 

That's in the last TWO DAYS.  You found 1/3 of that in the last month, the most recent being August 25th.

But Johnny, You said: NOBODY is bearish on gold. Now you are saying that I did find links from gold bears. So are you admitting that you were wrong?

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:51 | 573618 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

The most recent link on that list was August 25th, which is... oh... it's only 17 days ago.

Damn, I can't add.  Still, the most bearish thing you found was over two weeks ago.

People aren't bearish anymore.

Two weeks ago, I thought that the Vikings would beat the Saints.  Now I don't think that anymore.
Things change.  People move on.  You can't use old news and say that's what somebody thinks now.

Even if they were bearish, there's still at LEAST a 3:1 bullish ratio, and probably more than that.
But you can't count somebody's opinion on markets 17 days ago and say it's their opinion today.

All you do is parce words.  You're not worth my time anymore.

If you really want to find me to commit Bravocide, come to CU.  It shouldn't be hard to find me.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 03:19 | 573637 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

All you do is parce words.  You're not worth my time anymore.

So because I chose my words carefully and I say what I mean, it is a waste of time to read my posts? And because you make broad, unsubstantiated claims which are easily disproved, you should be considered to be a font of useful information?

I suppose that your denial of having made statements which can be quoted back to you word for word and cited by post number enhances your credibility even further.

Bravo!

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 03:21 | 573638 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

You completely disregard the point of the post, and instead try to find mistakes in words here or there to prove a point that isn't true.

There's no reason to even argue with such a style.  It's pathetic.

Just stop replying to my posts.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 08:46 | 573808 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Stop making them, and he'll stop replying.

Just get out.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 14:59 | 574715 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Not a big fan of irony, I notice.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:17 | 573593 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

You live in Boulder?  Haha.  I go to CU.

It should be easy for you to do your "Bravocide."

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:47 | 573613 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Wrong again, Johnny. I live near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Can you admit your error?

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:53 | 573619 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Why did your post says search results in Boulder, Colorado?

"Custom Locationex: Boulder, CO"

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 03:04 | 573628 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Why did your post says search results in Boulder, Colorado?

"Custom Locationex: Boulder, CO"

 

My post doesn't say that the results have anything to do with Boulder. CO. There is a "drop down box" on the Google menu from which one can chose a custom search location. "Custom Locationex: Boulder, CO" means that as an example (that what the "ex" stands for), one could enter a location such as Boulder, CO.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 03:13 | 573633 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

It's probably through Google's servers there.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 08:50 | 573819 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I'm going to lol when your (Mother's) house burns down, Jon-Benet.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 07:13 | 573710 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

Expert on CNBC just predicted a triple top and a drop to 1075.  Meanwhile, the guys who know this business are saying it's heating up and the cartel may lose the fight in this round.  We are used to hard smack downs, not this fly swatting.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 14:20 | 574599 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Nobody is bearish on gold? You should spend more time with the vast majority of society that is overwhelmingly bearish on gold.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 16:49 | 575005 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

The easiest way to refute the claim that "EVERYBODY" is bullish on gold is the dearth of commercials and shops springing up everywhere paying CASH for gold. As I told my wife the time to sell your gold is when the commercials and shops flip flop are advertising gold for cash - just my 2 cents(but its a gold 2 cent piece..)

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:45 | 573479 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The reason there's little downside risk to gold is the same reason there's no upside limit to dollar debt and dollar printing. 

Gold is simply a reflection of buying power. The dollar value of gold is inversely proportional to the dollar's buying power. And there's no limit in sight to the easy willingness of the Fed and Treasury to print and spend. A dollar won't even buy you half a buck's worth anymore. And that trend has been unbroken since we've come off the gold standard. It goes in one direction.

The only asset class that can adequately protect you from the continued deterioration of dollar buying power is gold. Everything else has their fate hitched to the dollar. 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:49 | 573487 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

To make that assertion would be to say that the oil markets only trade on supply and demand.  It's just not true.

Gold isn't inversely trading with the dollar.  It's just another speculative commodity.

People have run up the price.  That doesn't mean that it's invincible.

It trades on technicals, not fundamentals.  

Plus, the sentiment is all the way bullish.

By the way, S&P down tomorrow, starting a new downtrend to at least 1080-1085, pass it on.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:16 | 573522 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

If you chose to see gold as a "speculative commodity" then that's all you'll see. And you still won't get it. Ask yourself: "speculation....on what???" It sure ain't supply/demand. 

But if you ignore the signals gold is sending, that may be to the detriment of your financial well being. The fact is that wealthy individuals and central banks of surplus nations around the world have traded dollar-denominated assets in favor of gold due to the ongoing drop in purchasing power caused by reckless monetary and fiscal policy over the course of 4 decades since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971-73. What you are seeing today as a prolonged "crisis" is a direct consequence of this ongoing deterioration. And it explains why gold keeps setting new record highs. Gold is universally accepted as a currency-independent store of value and a medium of exchange.

Since 2008, central banks of most creditor nations have increased their gold holdings by large amounts. This was done at the same time that a number of nations made agreements to bypass the dollar completely in settling trades. China, Brazil, Malaysia, Indonesia have made this move. Other nations including those in the Persian Gulf have called for use of IMF SDRs to settle trades and have also increased gold holdings. Oil producers have set up oil exchanges outside the US that are not dependent on the dollar for settlement. 

It's simply a fact that the world's perception of the value of the dollar is diminishing. And that's above and beyond the deteriorating domestic purchasing power. 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:39 | 573554 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

The same thing that drives speculation in everything else: higher prices.

140 dollar a barrel oil wasn't based on supply and demand either.  It'd probably be less than 50 if it wasn't traded in commodity markets.  I think that gold is similar to this.  The only thing that keeps it higher is speculation for higher prices.

Even before the Bretton Woods, you saw the purchasing power of the dollar drop substantially.  It's the natural impact of inflation.  It has nothing to do with a gold standard.

Here's the thing: people said the same things about gold and oil in the 1970s.  Look what happened to both a decade later.  I suspect that this time will be no different.

What goes up must come down.  The crisis is behind us (at least for now).  

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:03 | 573576 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

"The crisis is behind us (at least for now)".

Well, that's the money quote. That's a perfectly reasonable thing to think. I couldn't disagree more, respectfully. The sh*t storm is still coming. It won't be a double dip. It'll be a reset. Fractional reserve ponzi schemes with massive entitlement issues don't end with the system intact in the same form as the start.

As I saw on another thread - it's the Fourth Turning. Gold isn't a trade. It's a hedge. A safety deposit box. Will it work. Dunno. Other plans have been made.  

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:26 | 573602 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Respectfully, I've been hearing about armageddon for the last two years.
All I've seen is the markets improve, jobs improve, and etc.

The shit storm might be coming, but when?

They've been saying that about Japan for 20 years now... 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 08:06 | 573763 anvILL
anvILL's picture

The shit hasn't hit here in Japan yet and I do see many real market fundamentals improving, but still, Gold has managed to beat the JPY for years.

I think this is because financial economy and government balance sheets are in a increasingly worse shape despite improvements in the real economy. Since the size of the financial economy dwarfs the size of the real economy, I don't think improvements in the real market matters very much to gold which is more of a hedge against the financial economy.

By the way, although Japan has been looking bad for a longer time, US and Europe looks much worse to me.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 08:56 | 573827 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Given continuous outflows from the markets and continuing job losses in the hundreds of thousands, I'm not sure what you mean by "improvement", other than perhaps "better than expected".

The shit storm will hit Japan when thier demographics make thier way of life unsustainable.  Ther people have cut back just about as much as they can.  They are a nation of high-tech paupers who live in coffins.  Fitting for a naiton under the deadly thumb of Keynesianism.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 09:20 | 573859 FranSix
FranSix's picture

"Respectfully, I've been hearing about armageddon for the last two years.

All I've seen is the markets improve, jobs improve, and etc.

The shit storm might be coming, but when?

 

They've been saying that about Japan for 20 years now... "

The reason why the Yen is continuing upwards and the Japanese economy continues to grow is the immense liquidity that is thrown at it year after year.  They are, essentially creating their own bubble - the only one left is their currency.

It probably stems from cultural aversion to negative interest rates or something like that.  At one time, the Japanese sought to sequester huge amounts of liquidity overseas, but were presented with negative libor rates by the banking sector.

For the most part, while the banking sector in the West could easily impose negative libor on Japanese overseas deposits, they categorically refuse negative repos to be imposed by their own central banks.  This is where the problem is.  Once you do engage in negative interest rates, the bubbles all burst.

http://money.cnn.com/1998/11/06/economy/japan_bank/

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 08:05 | 573760 trav7777
trav7777's picture

you need to take a break from the entrails and study peak theory, bud.

The oil price went to 140 for fundamental, not speculative reasons.  Gold is in a "bull run" since 2000 for fundamental, not speculative reasons.

I guess you are too young to understand that sometimes things actually DO change in a major way.  This is a failing of humans not to grasp this.  We seem to think that all that is here now will remain forever, because our conceited lifespans are miniscule compared to the scale of time that nature operates on.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 15:02 | 574723 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

textbook Thanksgiving turkey.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 16:52 | 575016 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

How the hell did I miss this BS LOL?

 

"It trades on technicals, not fundamentals. "

JB at the dinner table tonight ask your momma how many times she accidently dropped you on your head when you were an infant.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:49 | 573486 saulysw
saulysw's picture

"Does it bother any gold bulls that literally everyone sees no downside risk to gold?"

No. Because this is not true. Ask Johnny Jizzpants. And J6P isn't interested in Gold either. Yet. In fact, with the likes of "Cash for gold" they are being parted with it.

Actually, I hear what you are saying, and take your point. A crowded trade is a worry. I don't believe it is yet, though. We still have some years to run with this, and a parabolic blow-off mania phase to enjoy before the end. The trick will be to sell when that happens, and it will be the hardest thing in the world to do. Best to trade at that point for land, IMHO. For perspective, keep your eye on that 10 year chart.

The other thing to consider is the money printers. Are you so sure that they are not going to misbehave?

 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 00:51 | 573489 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Wow.  2 people on a site of 200000 are bearish?

Sounds like we're in the majority to me... *rolls eyes*

This IS the parabolic blow off phase.

Look at the chart.  It's a clear rising wedge.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:18 | 573520 jomama
jomama's picture

This simple fact that paper gold is leveraged at the most conservatively: 4 to 5 times against physical should tell anyone with some common sense it's still undervalued.  whether it goes up or down 100 bucks temporarily is a moot point.  I HOPE it goes down.  Then I can buy some more!!!

 

With the current total fiscal debt of the united states is well over 200 trillion dollars, rendering this sum mathematically impossible to pay down even under the harshest taxation or austerity conditions, or a 10-15% move by China out of their US treasuries and the shit hits the fan big time.  add in 12 million+ jobs since the beginning on the redepression, and no job growth on the horizon, it doesn't take a PhD in Econ to see the writing is on the wall.

 

So you can focus on your rising wedge all you want, as it fails to account for pontentially severe game breaking events, any of which could happen any week.  until you can reassure all of us that the dollar will gain consistent ground, it's obvious why 'all us gold bulls' will continue to trade this fiat garbage for something tangible, whether it be gold or silver.  Personally I think you just love to troll here because you are starved for attention, certainly not to give philanthropic investment advice to everyone you've insulted in the past.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:28 | 573538 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I think it will be down in excess of 200-300 dollars when the wedge breaks.  If you want to buy more at that time, you're welcome to.

Liabilities are not the same things as debts.  We're not 200T in debt, we're 200T liable.  And those liabilities stretch far into the future.  That's a HUGE difference.

The dollar has been increasing in value.  It's up as much as gold is this year, maybe even more.

The only reason why I insult people is because they insult me.  If there was respectful discussion, you'd see it both ways.
There are some people that I've never insulted.  They've never insulted me.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:33 | 573547 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

You're using techs as a rationalization to justify your rejection of gold. 

You also need to check your facts on the dollar's value this year. 

Techs only work if other people use them as signals to buy and sell. Otherwise they're just like seeing funny animal patterns in the clouds that nobody else sees except you. 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:54 | 573566 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

70% of the markets are driven by HFT computers, who use TA in their programming algorithms.
TA is the reality.  Fundamentals have already proven to be obsolete.

"Check my facts on the dollar's value this year."

What, that it went from 74 to where it currently sits at 83?  It's been in an uptrend all year.

It's making a bull flag right now.

The only facts is that dollar is up more than gold.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:11 | 573584 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

The USDX measures the relative strength of the USD against a basket of foreign currencies. The USDX does not track the purchasing power of the USD.

 

The only facts is that dollar is up more than gold.

What mix of yardsticks are you using to come up with this statement? It's simply bizarre as gold costs more in dollars than it did at the beginning of the year.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 02:54 | 573621 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

DXY 74 to 83 = 12%

Gold 1220 to 1250 = 2.4%

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 03:31 | 573640 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

You do realize that those are two unrelated standards of measurement don't you? Apples and oranges, as they say.

How can you say: "The only facts is that dollar is up more than gold," when it takes more dollars to buy gold this year than it did last year? If the dollar was up against gold then the price of gold in dollars would be lower. Pretty simple stuff.

 

 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 07:40 | 573735 taraxias
taraxias's picture

When are you going to realize that you are arguing with an idiot?

Personally, I've given up, I just insult him now.

 

****** He is an unemployed accountant FFS, underwater in his home and swimming in credit card debt. How the fuck do you expect him to "buy gold"?? *******

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 13:13 | 574378 doggings
doggings's picture

JB do you really not see this?

DXY buys you 12% more apples or oranges this year, Gold buys you 12.288% more ?

(12 x 1.024%)

 

 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 15:41 | 574814 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Not apples, and not oranges.  It might buy you more yen or euro, but not more apples or oranges.

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 07:59 | 573753 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Johnny,

   The stock and commodity markets are being driven by HFT, but this is not "Markets". Markets are the actual exchange of goods and services in the global economy. TA has nothing to do with determining markets. If your fundamentals were based on austrian analysis, you would find that they are working fine. 

The dependence on statistics, ones subject to manipulation, is the great weakness of TA. This is why mainstream economists cannot make predictions (neither can Austrians except in a very broad sense). It is also why traders with scores of years more experience than you cannot predict stock movements. Did you think you were special in a way no one else is? This is your youth and bravado talking. 

If you will take the time to study some of the great criminals of global finance, you will find they all depend on gold as the only real money that exists. From JP Morgan to David Rockefeller to the Swiss Bankers to every petty dictator and tyrant- they all keep large amounts of their wealth in gold. It is a hedge against the possible failure of the financial system. They know this, because they are the ones running it. 

You are a quick mind, but you lack the wisdom acquired over years of life. This is not an insult, it is a challenge to take the time to learn from the people around you. Crockett is jerking your chain because he can. You sound like a good trader as I have followed your comments, but your knowledge of economics is poor. Talk your strengths, because you have something to contribute. 

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 16:54 | 575026 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

More stupidity - the previous post above you claimed that gold was in a parabolic blow off but now you say it will only drop $200-$300?

Fri, 09/10/2010 - 01:37 | 573551 runlevel
runlevel's picture

amen.

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