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IMF Resumes Direct Gold Dumping, Sells 10 Tons Of The Shiny Metal To Bangladesh
It has been a while since the IMF sold gold directly to sovereign countries. Today that changed, as once again the IMF is either telegraphing it is happy with a gold price of $1,250 (although its sales last year did not prevent gold from surging to record highs as of two days ago), or that it is increasingly poorer (as it is now solely supporting a broke Europe, that would not be surprising). Dow Jones reports that the IMF just sold $403 million dollars, or 10 metric tons, to Bangladesh (yeah Bangladesh). As the IMF has sold 190 tons in off market transactions, and another 90 tons in the open market, the entity that has been pitching the SDR rather aggressively lately may soon hit its 400 ton quota. Although just like the US debt ceiling, that is merely a limit to be broken. Oddly enough, the direct buyers from the IMF continue to be monetary backwaters such as Mauritius, Sri Lanka and India... and now Bangladesh: at least ever more Asian countries are starting to get the gist of what is happening with the dollar. And once China is discovered to be directly or indirectly buying IMF gold, the all bets are off on the gold price hitting $1,600 in under two years. And this will happen even as Bangladesh realizes that it can't, gasp, eat the gold.
From Dow Jones
The International Monetary Fund said Thursday it sold 10 metric tons of gold to the Bangladesh's central bank worth $403 million based on Tuesday's market prices.
The IMF has been steadily selling a portion of its holdings in the market since early in the year, coordinating the effort with regularly scheduled sales by European central banks in order to avoid market disruptions.
The sales are part of the IMF's plan to offload 403.3 metric tons of gold to create a more stable income model and boost support for low-income countries.
About 212 metric tons were sold off-market to central banks of India, Mauritius and Sri Lanka last November, and the fund said in February it would begin phased sales to the market of the remaining 191.3 metric tons.
The IMF said, as of end July, a further 88.3 metric tons had been sold under the on-market sales announced in February.
h/t London Dude Trader
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amen 2.
Jeff Christian admitted a 100:1 leverage against paper. Add leases, derivatives... and conservatively it's much higher than 4-5 times phys., or
even 100:1 IMHO.
Coming from someone who has called 64 out of the last two interim tops I'll take that for what it's worth.
Btw...I'm short term bearish :)
Who is bullish? You? Did you ever buy gold? Do you know anyone that trades it or has purchased some physical? Or is it all ETFs? How many people do you know that are bullish? Everyone that I know has shruged off gold and silver for years as an investment and as money.
Who is bullish?
CNBC, Bloomberg, MarketWatch, Bloomberg, Zero Hedge, and all of the posters on those sites.
Who is bearish?
Johnny Bravo, and some guy named Nadler.
ETFs affect the price just as much as anything else.
And I always wrote that you and JonNadler were pals there at JPM...
I hope that you have the sense of humor that the Bearing does.
Just yanking your chain JB, in a civil way!
...
You should spend some of your youthful energy to look at Gold through History...
And get prepared in case TSHTF here in our dear America.
I think that the S already HTF, personally. We're going to see at least another few years of propping and kicking the can.
Personally, I've seen some really good things in the economy lately, and I think that this malaise is over, at least for now. I think that we are already in the double dip, and that we'll be back to 3-4 or even 5% growth by the spring.
I have looked at gold through history. I just don't think that this is the catalyst that's going to bring America down. I think that's still a ways off.
I know that you're joking. That's why I'm not upset when you do it.
lolwut
I don't reply to the illiterate. Except maybe akak.
I would have thought that possible, but I work in the packaging business, and I see orders falling off again. It doesn't look good from my perspective.
Regarding Gold; Something smells really bad about this.
Is this gold really going to Bangladesh, or is there really another buyer using India as a proxy to hide the actual buyer? There are players out there that so desperately want to manipulate gold prices. Call me skeptical.
I'd Keep an eye on this one.
The packaging business is cyclical. It's the time of the year for it to wind down.
I'm on campus almost every day, and there are a lot of people looking to hire.
There are new job postings, with better wages, and a lot more job fairs.
I see a lot of positive things, personally. I guess we'll just have to disagree.
The market is manipulated. That's why I wouldn't buy into it.
Well, also depends on location too. I'm in California, the economy is still limping along here, so my perspective is influenced by that factor. Could also be our customer base may be different for some reason. So it may be different. Other states are doing better. Its just that there's nothing definitive to me at this point I guess.
LOL really? I am thinking of words like lying,shit, sack and of....
Fewer employers turn out for CU-Boulder job fairRead more: http://www.coloradodaily.com/rss/ci_14885692#ixzz0z2r09KOc
Coloradodaily.com
Don't confuse Johnny with facts. It's cruel.
You've pointed up the exact problem he is having: His view is narrow and confined. It he didn't see it with his own eyes it didn't happen. If he didn't conceive of it with his own mind, it can't happen. If the economy appears better in his tiny world (a college campus) then it can be extrapolated to the entire universe. Isn't all this obvious? Isn't it also obvious that arguing with him is a futile exercise?
JB, you are forgetting a tinny little detail for next spring. In January the biggest tax increase in US history goes into effect. Even a College Student with little income will see his tax rate go up by 50% (from 10%-15%). What you are seeing this fall is money been made and spent in anticipation to the tax increases. The market will continue trading in a narrow range until November. Right after the elections the markets will go up 10% before the end of the month. You will see a massive sell off in December (profit taking before the taxes kick in). Q2 will be just as nasty, you will get some sideways, but in general it will be down.Q3 will be mostly flat to down. Market taking a breather and all the turmoil settling in. Q4? depends on too many factors to see yet.
"People havent been this absolutely sure of the direction of a commodity since the NaZ hit 5000 and everyone knew it was going to 10000. Just a slight word of caution.. When everyone sees a guaranteed killing in a trade... you might want to look behind you because it may be you that gets skewered. "
gold is honest money and has been trading as money for most of the last two years - check out gold's correlation to the US dollar, it has changed
people who continue to think of gold as just a commodity are missing the big picture - gold is about trust (or lack there of) and confidence - people are losing confidence in fiat money and they are seeking alternatives
when I read the comments on gold threads I don't see anybody talking about making a killing - what I see is rational people (except for Johnny Bravo) trying to protect themselves from the fiat currency game that the world's govts and central bankers are playing
maybe this is the IMF pawning off the tungsten bars before the big "discovery" of salted bars.
does that make for a price drop or a rocket to the moon for real Au?
People have pondered this question, and also have pondered if true to what extent.
I think this would have a temporary negative effect on the smaller retail trade, investors without the ability to assay might be scared off. But then again most of this trade is in one ounce sizes or smaller which are much tougher to counterfeit.
However, for those with large amounts of physical, such as Central Banks, if this rumour was true, Central Banks around the world might scamble to assay their gold and if even small amounts of Tungsten were found their would be a scramble to replace the "watered down" bars. It would depend on how much was Tungsten. How much is rumoured to be held in CB vaults? 30,000 tons? If 5% was found to be Tungsten, and this needed to be replaced quickly, 1500 tons is about 60% of total world annual mine production. So I think if true this could have a positive short-medium term impact on the gold price, but not long term, unless the amount found to be tungsten was over 10%.
They find any (well, more than 10, say) Tungsten bars, physical Gold goes to the moon. Of course I do not know more than anyone else, but I suspect that there is no substantial amount of fake gold bars.
...
Thanks for making the AK-47 Dr. Kalashnikov. Yet another reason I sleep well at night.
I wonder how much gold the IMF has and where it got its gold. I think Rand Paul's suggestion to audit the gold is a good idea.
Selfishly, I wish all the central banks would start selling their gold because I don't plan on selling any for some time and I would welcome the opportunity to buy more at a lower price. But somehow I don't think this is going to happen. Oh well. There is always silver...
Source of IMF Gold
http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/gold.htm
Of course, I cannot tell you if they are being truthful. There is no real independent auditing, so how much they have, where it's stored and what they actually sold is a confused mess.
Under IMF rules-isn't every member country supposed to contribute a share of the Gold yearly?
If so--then the IMF selling should be yoy Gold nuetral-because most of the contributing countries have no Gold-so they would be buying Gold on the open market to contribute their share-
The IMF doesn't buy or sell gold. It simply moves it around to either dillute or strenghten a countries currency.
Ron Paul. Audit the Fed's (alleged) gold . . .
Rand isn't in Congress yet. Still a doctor . . .
its not hard to believe that GOLD market has plenty of FAKES running around......also its not hard to believe that some AFRICAN central bank hold FAKE GOLD in their reserves............but i find it hard to believe that IMF can actually DUPE some BIG respected CENRAL BANK like the RBI of INDIA.....can it happen .....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0-hGHJSgNA
There aren't very many metals that have densities greater than or equal to gold. And most of the metals that are as dense are more precious than gold. So it is very easy to detect most fakes using simple density measurements.
The one exception is tungsten, which has a density which is almost identical to gold. However, tungsten has very different electrical conductivity and tensile/elastic properties than gold, so in theory it should be very easy to detect tungsten fakes using very simple tests.
However as someone (I can't remember who) has said: the difference between theory and practice is that in theory there is no difference between the two, but in practice there usually is.
As for the African fakes, I suspect what happened is that the bank purchased genuine gold, and then whichever official was in charge of guarding it removed the real bars (with help from some underlings) and left some cheap fakes so that no one would be aware of the theft.
What did Bangladesh buy the gold WITH? Did they just trade in a pile of their foreign reserves, do they even have foreign reserves?
They traded a warehouse full of vintage George Harrison albums they were sitting on.
They bought levees and sandbags.
That is the Ganges delta. I assume they export some cash crop for Yankee dolla. Good question. Can anyone name the capital of Bangladesh?
dhaka ain't it? one of the densest cities in the world
For the all the hatoraide being spilled on the poor nation of Bangladesh, there is one thing that country does have, and that's good food. Next time your're in New York, skip the Indian restaurant and try out some Begali food, it's soooo much better and they eat cows!
I still don't get it, mainly because I don't know much about the IMF I guess, but what does the IMF get out of this transaction? They lose gold and gain some currency of some sort? What is a nation's fiat currency worth to them? Does the IMF maintain a big foreign reserve fund that they also lend from? There HAS to be some kind of motivation for them to be pulling some currency out of the global economy and replacing it with gold...it's hard for me to imagine since I was under the impression that the IMF is tied in with the NWO gang. Someone clue me in on the strategic implications, my head is hurting.
Bangladesh? Do I hear a song?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangla_Desh_(song)
So Johnny. Can I bet you one fine ounce of 999 that gold will be over 1500 by July next year? Meet you in Vegas for the handover. Come on you fiend!
Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka are all third world countries buying Gold from First world lender to Central Banks. What twisted world ?
I'd rather eat gold than eat Federal Reserve Notes.
I think there is more nutritional value (although, I guess cotton is sufficient for your fiber intake...solid turds) and the chances of catching a virus off a gold bar are a little less IMHO.
As an added plus, it's way cooler to shit gold than to shit cotton. Chicks wanna' get with dudes that shit gold, shitting cotton isn't so cool.
Johnny,
read your posts and appreciate your input. We all make forecasts.. some work out, some don't.. but to leave a forum like this would (imo) not be great as we all need various perspectives to help us figure this crazy market out. I'm not sure about gold.. I see reasons to be bullish, but also worry about the 'crowded trade' aspect. One thing I would note - I was bearish and calling for an S&P 500 to hit 500 before it topped out at 1576.. I was a year early.. so many said I was "wrong" until it started to break down. I was bearish in March 09.. and continue to be so.. standing by my call of 500.. so most at my firm are once again saying I'm wrong.. to be honest it bugs me.. but I'm not going to cave and go against what I see just to follow the crowd. Thankfully I didn't follow the crowd in the dot.com days and that worked out okay.. but it took a very long time for me to be proven 'right'.
My point is.. don't go just because a forecast doesn't work out.. continue to stay and provide your views.. and hopefully we can all respectfully debate and discuss the issues - I know its gets emotionally heated from time to time.. but that's what makes this market so interesting to try and figure out.
rambling I know.. but there are a lot of great posters and comments here.. and I for one would hate to see people with alternative views get pushed out in favor of some kind of majority rule.
just my two cents (adjusted for inflation)
Gub
"I for one would hate to see people with alternative views get pushed out in favor of some kind of majority rule."
+1
And what exactly are his fucking views that you can't wait to consider?
Let me sum it up for you to save you sometime reading his posts in the future: "gold will crash" because the chicken entrails he is reading are telling him so and because the trade *must* be overcrowded.
He is wrong on all accounts, has been for months. And if he had any money to trade the nonsense he is posting on here, he'd be broke by now.
Wake the fuck up, this is a currency crisis, no more, no less. If he understood that, he'd change his mind about where gold is going, but he's just another dumb fuck who thinks he can take a technical analysis night course and get rich sitting at home starring at his computer.
Give me a fucking break.
@taraxis
I've said before - i don't know what macro picture is with Johnny vs. the many who dislike his viewpoint/him. So I could hardly say i am waiting for his view on anything. If his posts are completely irresponsible and potentially dangerous, maybe the guy should be run out of town. Are you saying that his posts are completely irresponsible and dangerous?
I hold some gold and am accutley aware of, and postioned for a credit crisis, btw. Take care.
I think what everyone gets all up in arms about is that he represents the blinkered view of the vast majority of people who only see what is directly around them and don't take any sort of long view, and don't learn lessons from history. It's not that he is dangerous per se, it's just that he represents the culture that needs to change before its constituents are victimized by their own ignorance. It's a dangerous way to see the world, when you can't see the changes happening around you, nor how to hedge against catastrophe.
But, whatever, it's entertaining.
Quite a few of us find JB offensive not because his views don't jibe with ours regarding gold...it's the method by which he delivers his message.
It tends to be juvenile, dismissive of alternate viewpoints, and devoid of arguments to support his position...mostly he's an ad hominem debater.
Bangladesh is doing what? Buying gold? With what. One of the most impoverished countries is buying gold instead of investing in flood mitigation.
Next time it floods in Bangladesh, I will think of the gold that bought instead of preventing misery.
How do you know that they didn't use the gold as collateral for infrastructure loans? Maybe they couldn't get credit with the collateral they had - US FRN's.
Governments thrive and grow as the people starve. Isn't that the way it always goes.
Coming soon to a country near you.
I wonder if you can make an equation that shows the relationship between the price of gold falling in a day and the amount of times JB posts on ZH.
He/she was so smug when gold was under that $1220 mark.
I doubt anyone wants to see you not post, though. However, there is no need to pick a static number. You tend to go away anytime the inedible metal goes higher. I look forward to the inevitable "This POS is heading back under $1400, the chart says so!" post.
"I doubt anyone wants to see you not post, though."
I would not be so sure of that.
I would second that. I think its safe to assume that could be seconded to the nth power, when n=# of Zero Hedgers that aren't moronic tools.
We miss Johnny when he's gone a long time. When he's here, well...
Are you using the "Royal" we?
I'm of the go-the-fuck-away persuasion. But that's just me.
My beliefs are not shaken by his comments, I'm just irritated.
RR such language! I'm shocked! From one who is so erudite......I think he brings out the worst in people.
Ingoring him would go a long way to achieving the desired outcome, but his detractors haven't fathomed this yet.
See you back at the pond.
Hear, hear. Self-control must be exercised when you just...feel...magnet...pulling...finger...to..."Reply" button.
+ 1400
Probably the best analysis with a long term perspective on the outlook for gold prices in Euros. What the videos talk about in the fourth minute of the third video after a lengthy discussion of the technicals behind the chart is a forecast for gold averaging more than €3000/oz. and the DAX falling to 1500 points:
http://www.realterm.de/DAXinGold.php
Look, even miners have their feasibility studies using ~$900/oz. gold, because they think it can fall that far, and can't wrap their heads around years of price-fixing in the bullion markets, the adjustment for inflation, and exactly when gold prices start adjusting beyond inflation.
And, there will be a significant run-up in prices this year and going into 2011 which says that the turning point for adjusting beyond inflation will have been reached.
JB. your so full of it.
The alternative is what? Compunded paper promises?
When a currency collapses, because it got in to overreach there is hell to pay.
Luckily the Zim's had an alternative.
Exactly where will the alternative safe haven be? To the mighty$$?
Nowhere to run? The US$$$$ is the pinnacle (sarcasm on/off)
the only problem i see is that if gold goes to $1450 we will not see Johnny Bravo anymore...what a shame...( but I hope that he still reads the comments then)
Hmm , excellent.
i've been long on gold since 2003 when i'd be on night shifts and my wife would get pissed off when the coins i'd bought would come through the letter box the next week.
its interesting to watch it climb and i can understand people getting nervous but i dont think you can go past the fundamentals for now
What are the big ones?
Socialist governments in the usa and europe lack the balls to really tackle debt and so the steady decline is on. of the dollar and standard of living.
China cant help itself - they love gold.
this run has a bit to go , but there will be declines - my parents used my pocket money to buy an ounce of crap 9ct gold around the peak in 1980 - i sold it 20 years later for less than they paid for it - that messes with your head as a kid.
i'd be interested in thoughts on silver - surely when the apocalypse comes smaller denominations will be required?
The gold bars they get must be tested ...
If they are the 400 oz. type , they may
just be Gold Plated .,
7th most populous nation in the world....89% are Muslim. Islam has called for the gold dinar and silver dirham as the proper currency. Islam has quite a following in emerging markets in SE Asia. Remember the province in Malaysia? This is the trend emerging. though perhaps a religious basis, it is a smart insurance policy...especially if you believe the western world is crumbling.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/malaysian-province-moves-gold-and-silve...
Now known as the Johnny doosh bag thread.
Seriously, can we get at least 15 dollars on silver one more time before I die? I just need 3000 more ounces.....
How old are you? In a few months you may like $20 silver. The supply for sale is shrinking fast. The big players are moving in gradually. Of course, they all wait until they read all of JB's posts.
Very true. Just as $985 - $1030 used to be strong overhead resistance in gold, and is now rock solid support, the $18.50 - $ 19.50 range in silver which used to be strong resistance should now be strong support, if you suscribe to TA. Over the next five years or so, gold's rise will be measured in percentages and silver's rise will be measured in factors.
Better chance at 1500 silver than 15 again. Seriously.
Don't bet the farm on that. I agree silver has great potential, but it could hit $15 or less, but the dip would be quick as you would see massive physical buying, as you saw in Feb when it hit that level.
And that's exactly why it won't see $15 again. JPM knows that pushing the price lower opens the door to others to demand and take physical possession. Do you think JPM can cover their short positions? (rhetorical)
I don't think we'll see 15 in silver either, but I wouldn't rule it out, if we did it would be very temporary.
JPM must be crapping themselves looking at this mornings chart, in times past a move down like that would have triggered lots of stops, now it triggers buying.
You know what sucks balls though? When silver takes a moonshot and JPM SHOULD be the short of the century--Uncle Obama will come riding up on his white stallion and fuck every short in the universe to save JPM.
This whole market is fricking insane. I can't wait until CNBC has no viewers for investment advice and has to get female teleprompter readers to go topless for ratings.
I'm gonna get junked for this, but I gotta:
BACKWARDATION, BITCHEZ!
"BACKWARDATION, BITCHEZ!"
RR, that's beautiful! Sacrilege to junk.
Tho, you may want to lay off the Antal Fekete and fofoa, don't you know you could go blind?
I'm partial to alliteration. FOFOA has only given me hairy palms so far, blindness comes much later.
Both a ya'll are just adorable.
Aw shucks, Ma'am.
Glad to see the misogynists haven't scared you off, MsCreant, or should I say disgusted you to the point of leaving. You add great class and poise not to mention valuable insight.
Embarrassing to be male sometimes.
All three of you are just adorable.
The rather rascally racoon railled really wrathfully against the rather retarded rabble-rouser.
You too. Been enjoying your perspective.
This is something that really interests me...is it really becoming more difficult for dealers to source gold to sell? Is that happening at mostly the mom-and-pop level, or across the retail spectrum? I have heard that big sellers aren't having any supply problems, but that might just be hype.
Would someone please save Johnny Dipsht and take his shovel away? It is sad to watch a grown man do this to himself in public.
JB said in this thread that he's a college student in Colorado... Why let a college kid derail a thread?
I was a buyer of $20 Eagles in 1967 when they were ~ $65 each. Why should I take anything a kid says about gold seriously?
Who believes that charts are worth a crap when all markets are now being manipulated by Western CBs? Tech analysis is akin to voodoo, or dogpoo, in these times.
I have always been a gold/silver buyer, never a seller. What I accumulate is going to my kids and I don't give a damn if gold drops back to $950...that would simply present another buying opportunity. Fiat is toast!
Good point - everyone knows when gold is at $1300 that JB will disappear as usual. He is just an attention whore, poor kid.
Gold Eagles were first coined in 1986.
That is not to diminish your point, however. Good one.
Remember Exeter's Pyramid? Try this one for size:
http://www.24hgold.com/24hpmdata/articles/img/20100719CLA15587.jpg
Gold Eagles were first coined in 1986.
I believe that the $10 gold piece in circulation until 1933 was called an Eagle and the $20 coin was called a Double Eagle. Snidley is likely referring to Double Eagles which contain about .98 oz of gold if I recall correctly.
Correct.
Who believes that charts are worth a crap when all markets are now being manipulated by Western CBs? Tech analysis is akin to voodoo, or dogpoo, in these times.
My thoughts exactly. When TSHTF I won't care how many federal reserve notes I traded for an oz. of the yellow stuff.
contrast this report with England's selling at $250/oz in 2000
.
Man, this place has REALLY gone for a shit sinceit started.
Why the F*&%k doesnt everyone try stop trying to convince the other person as to what is/isnt going to happen. If your so F$%#ing smart why would you want to share your knowledge?
This bantering does nothing but bring down this blog. I visit it less than i did when it started becuse of the BS bantering.
Thanks for your contribution.
Right. The people who make money in real estate are out there every day in the trenches, buying and selling. Those who would like to make money in real estate just give no-money-down seminars.
If you want to blame the bantering on someone, look no further than the JPM paid shills, trolls and liars like Johnny Doosh bag. He has spammed this thread with his anti-gold taunts at least 20 times. Or scum like John Nadler at Kitco who has bashed gold the ENTIRE way up from 250 to 1250. They are only becoming more shrill as the tide inevitably turns against them as the whole world catches on to the CON fidence game of fiat currencies...
Don't forget the BP guys, snakehead, Augustus and of course the one and only Jim Rockford.
+1000
Has anyone considered that the IMF might be spreading some gold around to the developing countries so that their currencies will not collapse when tshtf?
If the IMF/BIS has a crisis because of a loss of confidence in the dollar/Euro there might suddenly be a need for ALL countries to participate in a currency backed by a basket of commodities/currencies...with gold/silver included in the basket.
1241 and still dropping.
Pop?
Please understand, 1267 is the Evil Empire Maginot Line. They will do everything in their power to contain gold below 1267. When gold finally closes above 1267, not only on a daily basis but on a weekly basis, it is headed to 1290, then 1350 and then 1500.
And Silver at $20.
Sitting 19.98 Bid 20.00 Ask right now. Just like yesterday and most of the week.
That increases their gold reserves 4% according to the cia 12/09 fact sheet. What are the odds that information is correct? They're pricing an ounce of gold at $29.99 aren't they? Anyway, if they buy another 10 ton, I think that moves them into 67th place for gold holders. They would fly past Tunisia and the United States. I don't know if the list includes paper gold or just the metal stuff, the cia should clarify.
Johnny Bravo May be correct, I havnt a clue what the gold price will be next week or next year, I also believe nobody does but a calculated guess is all anyone can do,
I am bearish on gold on a general valuation bases as I value gold at $1000 as a fair value,
100 years ago the gold price was $20 and its reported the $ has lost 98% of its value so this very simple guide to a fair valuation,
2% X 50 = 100 $20 X 50 = $1000
I accept this is too simple as a credible valuation but its an interesting guide,
Gold is up about 400% in ten years, This fact should indicate gold is overvalued and for me is bearish,
For me when most people are bullish on something thats the time to get out, Most people are bullish on gold so again this is bearish.
I am not a lover of charts as sole trading tools but only as a guide to a fair valuation indicator to buy low and sell high over long periods, Looking at gold over the past several years the trend is very strong and may continue higher year on year for a long time or this may be the top and the trend is about to change, I dont know.
I have gold and I am in the process of selling the problem I have is where else to invest as most things look iffy, Silver on the other hand looks very undervalued and I am long silver with no intention of selling as I expect $100 or higher silver prices in the next 10 years or so, I am unconcerned about corrections on a shorterm basis and my silver play is purly valuation based waiting for the market to catch up,
So you think gold is going to go down but silver is going to $100? Can anyone please let me know if gold ever dropped 20% at the same time silver has gone up 500%? TIA
OK, Now thre is an assumption of 98% depreciation of dollar. Now let us change the assumption and assume that dollar has depreciated by 99%.
$1 in year 1900 buys 1/20 oz of Gold
$1 in year 2000 buys 1% of that ie (1/100) *(1/20) = 1/2000 oz of gold.
ie in Year 2000 1 oz of Gold will cost $2,000.
- If we now change the assumption to 99.5% depreciation we get $4,000/oz of Gold. similarly assuming 99.8% depreciation gives $10,000/oz og Gold today
- We are also assuming that Gold at $20 in year 1900 is obsolute real value, which may or not be correct.
No nation that went off the gold standard ever remained great.
I think I'll stick with Jim Sinclair on this gold thing. Seems like he's had a bit of experience in this area.
So is the "sale" just a mark on the ledger like the bullshit India deal, or is this a physical transfer?
yawn
See ebay prices of gold for what people really value gold at:
http://goldprice.org/ebay-gold-prices/
Avg. price for 1/10 oz is $141.79...or $1417 per oz.
Avg. 1oz is $1311
As another indicator GVZ is low:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/GVZ/charts
Also I personally have seen many jewelry shops close, and even if they were of the "we buy gold" variety. How do all those people that were selling their jewelry for 30% off of spot when it was $800, $900 and $1000 feel now when the spot is $1250 and just missed the all time intraday recently? Once you sell you can't get it back. I haven't seen a gold buying commercial for over a year nor have I seen an article in any publication in almost that long for "gold parties." The loose gold has been consolidated and maybe when the price reaches $1500 more will be recycled.
Extrapolating from fractional quantities to full ounce is not a reliable indicator, as premiums for fractional quantities are much higher.
Yes that is why I included the whole oz.
To Answer Uninterested observers question over my comments,
The market moves as its will and in 1979 to early 1980 gold moved from 400 to 800 quickfire while silver moved from 5 to 50 quickfire, This info just shows the market does its will and silver went below 5 as time passed 20 years later,
Why do I value gold today at about $1000 and silver around $100?
The $1000 gold price I explained in my comments, The reason behind my silver price is the gold silver ratio is way out of balance for me,
currently the gold silver ratio is 63/1 I expect this ratio to go sub 10 to 1 = $100 silver to $1000 gold,
The reason why I think this should be the case is in the ground their is about 16 times more silver than gold hence when gold and silver was money this ratio was the case for centuries, Gold is hardly lost where silver is used in things like tvs and such like so today the global gold amount above ground is circa 170,000 tonnes and the estimated above ground silver is only 2.2 times higher its been used up and lost, Silver is only twice as common as gold in above ground supplies and is mined at about 15 times as much so a ratio of 10 to 1 for me would indicate a fair market value for silver because of these reasons,
The market will do as it wil and my guess may be never met but the grounds as to why it should be met are sound and my investment in silver is my hope this ratio will correct to a fair ratio which 10 to 1 looks a reasonable guess.
Thanks - I respect your viewpoint (hell its YOUR gold so if you sell it and buy silver I don't think it is a bad swap anyway) but I disagree with your simple metric used to value gold. When measured against actual dollars created from the use of derivatives and govt promises of benefits like SS and medicare etc the $ figure for a oz of gold goes much higher.
so the bagladese are now proud owners of gold plated tungsten....the imf has no more gold than ft knox....what a crock...
so the bangladese are now proud owners of gold plated tungsten....the imf has no more gold than ft knox....what a crock...
I stopped into one of these "WE BUY GOLD" places the other day. If ever a name said it all....2000 sq ft, one guy, a table and a laptop - that's all.
Q: Do you sell gold?
A: No (read the sign)
Q: Do you buy silver or platinum?
A: No (again, the sign)
Q: So what do you do with said gold?
A: It gets melted down (translation: fuck off, you're starting to bother me)
I have nothing in my world's experience to compare with this: a business that doesn't sell anything, just buys and buys and buys.
I wanted to ask who was financing this venture, but this guy wasn't interested in talking to me unless I had gold to sell.
I can't pretend to know what the short term gyrations of gold will be, but somehow I get the feeling that 5 years from now, we won't be standing around laughing about how stupid those guys who set up shops to buy gold an $1200 an ounce were.
FED and IMF are the buyers.
Why not the mints themselves?
I love this part:
The sales are part of the IMF's plan to offload 403.3 metric tons of gold to create a more stable income model and boost support for low-income countries.
How, exactly, is selling gold to "low-income" countries supposed to create a "stable income model" and "boost support," except perhaps by providing them a means of avoiding getting reamed when the dollar collapses?
I love this part:
"The sales are part of the IMF's plan to offload 403.3 metric tons of gold to create a more stable income model and boost support for low-income countries."
How, exactly, is selling gold to "low-income" countries supposed to create a "stable income model" and "boost support," except perhaps by providing them a means of avoiding getting cleaned out when the dollar collapses?
That's one opinion. But I think this is looking only at the surface. As an exercise, you can keep similar premises (1. gold is a good asset, 2. other assets will experience aversion acceleration) you can easily come to the opposite conclussion that gold will crash as well.
What is being considered is the quality of individual assets, however, in reality, no one just piles in into one asset. That gives rise to another problem. In a rush-to-derisk, many assets will crash. Good assets will crash faster. Why? Simple:
Everyone, at the same, will be required to raise cash. Since they cannot sell bad assets without experiencing huge losses, they will be FORCED to sell good assets. Prime example of this is Russian stocks. You had mid and large-cap with huge growth being just dumped, as everyone needed to raise cash to hold against crappy assets. Same thing will happen with gold as the amount of bad-investments will easily overpower people who had saved up for a rainy day and want to jump into gold (in the hopes of everyone moving money into it). this is evident by insane correlation among assets.
It's 3:39pm and gold is $1247.40 on Forex Windows. Big take down...LOL
It bounced off $1240 like a golf ball off concrete.
Yep. Little snap back.
http://blogs.villagevoice.com/forkintheroad/archives/2010/09/contestant_...
Just going to chase that price higher.
Given the lying and manipulations of virtually all banks and financial institutions, one should ignore their press releases and spin and just keep acumulating PMs and hold them, drink a good bottle of wine or your favorite and watch the show. And find a decent country to live in. And I can tell you its not the USA and not Nicaragua, although the latter is superior in that there´s simple, honest theft, not the legal, institutional variety that most US citizens are still blind to.
Interesting question you pose, but without an answer, I think. Where to run to? Switzerland isn't exactly handing out Permanent Resident Visas. Canada and Australia are farther down the socialist path than we are. Singapore will be Taiwan East when China starts throwing their weight around.
Bottom-line, maybe the whole world is totally fucked, and at least here it's still legal to have firearms to defend your family.
Please feel free to tell me if you think there's a place to go that won't be sucked into the world war that's coming, WILL let me emigrate there, and allows gun rights...
I'd tell you a nice place........but then the secret would be out.
Okay okay, I want to help out my fellow ZHer's (well, at least most of them).
IMHO, Costa Rica is one of the best places on earth. Its geography/scenery is like Hawaii or Thailand, but not brutally expensive like Hawaii or a totally foreign culture and halfway around the world like Thailand.
Not bad infrastructure, good health care, property taxes are something like .25%, foreigners can buy real estate, friendly people, awesome beaches. There is some poverty compared to the US or Canada, but not as bad as Mexico and certainly better than than the rest of Central America. I think they also have one of the highest proportions of land set aside for national parks, reserves, etc of any country in the world.
Thank u, i found this for a long time.
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