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The Impact Of Surging Oil Prices On The US Consumer: A Primer

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Courtesy of John Lohman

A quick talking point: assuming a pure crowding out, the effective $700 tax on consumers reduces GDP by 0.5% (disclosure, the sensitivity is higher than some on the street who use 2.5-2.75 cents for every $1 in oil).

 


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Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Bearster
Bearster's picture

Some moron on CNBC yesterday was saying that $100 oil will not derail the economy.  But $125 would.  Like it's a digital effect.  Derail=true or Derail=false.

But as ZH is pointing out, it's a continuous function.  Every dollar of marginal rise in oil has an effect on the economy at the margin!

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:20 | Link to Comment FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

Yep.  Every $10 in oil is roughly 0.3% reduction to GDP.  It adds up, particularly when initial GDP reports are revised downward by 100bps before we get to the final number

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:25 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

The global economy is headed for a cliff.  If Benocide stops QEn, deflation.  If he continues, horrible inflation.  He won't stop QE infinity, so rising oil and GDP downward revisions (as well as a margins squeeze) are the new norm, until this baby blows up.

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:35 | Link to Comment metastar
metastar's picture

So, does the chairsatan pull the plug on the market as justification for QE3, or does he just say f*ck it and push QE3 without blowing any fuses first?

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:02 | Link to Comment B9K9
B9K9's picture

The absolute key is oil. The absolute key to controlling said resource is the US military. Ergo, the only question one need ask about QE is this: What monetary policy most effectively enables US mission objectives with regard to continued control of this vital, strategic resource?

The ongoing deliberations about QE have absolutely nothing to do with markets, the economy, state budgets, Federal budgets, food, welfare, and other social support mechanisms, etc. At present, policy discussions are merely couched in the language of these issues for the simple reason that the PTB could not control the panic which would ensue if the truth were ever known.

Again, the only issue facing Ben is to what degree monetary easing and/or contraction facilitates the MIC's strategic imperative. If it is demonstrated that QE is reducing our capacity to control ME governments & trade channels (ie oil supplies), it will be discarded quicker than a used condom.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:17 | Link to Comment metastar
metastar's picture

B9K9,

This is an interesting framework within which to analyze the criminal activities of our corrupted corporate/political system. I will need to give this one some thought.

Thanks.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:41 | Link to Comment Drachma
Drachma's picture

You assume Ben is working for the U.S. and its "strategic resource"?

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:09 | Link to Comment B9K9
B9K9's picture

There isn't a single person alive in the world today who doesn't continue to enjoy breathing @ the leisure & convenience of the MIC.

There's a reason the long history of the chosen people is one of diaspora. It's because, in the final analysis, they always lose. Savor that point for a moment: in the end, they always lose.

In fact, losing is critical to their long term success. Think of them like SoCal chaparral that needs fire in which to germinate new seeds. If they didn't periodically lose, then (a) they wouldn't have a narrative in which to enforce group cohesion & unity; and (b) they woudn't be able to concentrate their reserves and wait for the next victim economy to show promise of plucking.

So, if there are any sure things in life, it's that the banksters are always defeated by the state.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:20 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Yes.  Ask yourself why he has been allowed to proceed with a plan that was certain to fail.  Ask yourself why his banker buddies have not been prosecuted.  I realize that your answer will be, "because the banks own congress."  This is only partially correct.  The banks have a second mortgage if you will.  The first is owned by the MIC.  If you are a decisionmaker and on the one hand you have the MIC and on the other you have bankers, who do you think poses the biggest threat to you?  Who can curb stomp you instantly if need be?  Who can act autonomously of the government AND without the use of mercenaries, if necessary?  Who can act legally in virtually any capacity to threaten your person?  When emergencies hit, who gets permanent legislation and who gets temporary legislation?  In the event TSHTF, who is more likely to defend you?  Can the government scrap the banking system and still perform the lending function?  (compared to scrapping the military and still attempting to perform the lending function)

In an instant the banks can be declared insolvent and nationalized.  Essentially, they are nothing more than beggars without aids or a switchblade.  The only reason they have not already been nationalized is because their interests coincide with the MIC's.  Should there ever be a divergence in their interests, everyone else will be discarded for the MIC.  If war is necessary to protect the MIC and its designated "strategic objectives", then it will be waged.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:34 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

The one question that I have that will deflate your argument is this:

Where does the MIC get their debt (money) from?

The same place the banks do.  From their owners.

pods

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 15:05 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

How does this deflate the argument that as between the two, one takes precedence?  I agree that both are, ultimately, beholden to fundamental economics in order to operate...  and neither are fundamentally "productive".

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 15:12 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Because the MIC needs the bankers more than the bankers need the MIC.  The bankers can use guns or butter to increase debt.

Not trying to make a big deal of it.  Both do go hand in hand. I just think that the bankers have the upper one by a long shot.

pods

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 15:30 | Link to Comment iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

 

No Chance..  PD's have the Bernank bucks, digital money, and the hope of faith in it..

MIC has armies, ammo, and eminent domain.. 

no contest.

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:00 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

you are looking at it linear.  It's more like, the tree can't get water from the sea without the cloud to send it there.   Bankers are the cloud.   

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:13 | Link to Comment asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

What about this exchange on CNBC today? (Feb 25th 2011)

 

 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WC9CpdeHF8

 

Damon Vickers, Nine Points Capital Management founder talks about QE2 and why he thinks bernanke is buying up the US debt

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:15 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Vickers is a non practicing nihilist.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:52 | Link to Comment bingaling
bingaling's picture

Good video . His best opinion is that the US dollar is so weak since all of the instability started, when the dollar should have shot up as a safe haven . Capital flows since Egypt started exploding are the tea leaves to tell the future .

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:31 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Banking, in its present form, only exists because there is a demand to increase the size and scope of the MIC...  whether this function is private or public is of no concern.  If a private banking system did not inherently exist, one would be created to fund the MIC.  You're talking about unnecessary middle men as though they are the real movers...  they are not.  They may be politically influential and good at siphoning off funny money, but once their usefulness has run out, they'll be tossed to the wind.  (i.e. once their interests no longer align with the MIC)...  again, the FED is simply a temporary vehicle.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:43 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

that only works in a Genghis Khan method where it feeds off direct plunder..  keeping a standing army/empire needs the banksters

 

that's what Hamilton pushed and why Jefferson and Jackson pushed back.  They knew that the armies weren't the problem, but how they were funded in Hamilton's view.  I am being a little simple here, and someone can provided better light, but I always viewed that Jefferson and Jackson would rather have a fireman/citizen's duty type army than a standing federal army

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 19:33 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

It works because it is incredibly clever.  Obviously if the MIC directly and overtly controls the monetary function, then it would limit its growth potential unless otherwise possessing some incredible core competancies, such as technological advancement or extremely badass soldiers.  As a result, it outsources this function and pays middlemen handsomely for their efforts (they've been really, really good at what they do and have been paid accordingly).

The government as we know it is merely a mask for the MIC.  Our imperialist/aggressive policies need not be resaid here.  The banks are allowed to do whateverthehell they need to do to keep the war machine pumping.  They have been given a green light to pillage and plunder.  This is why there have not been any prosecutions.  They do not bribe congress, they pay tribute to congress.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:20 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

They only go hand in hand because the interests of the bankers end up aligning with the interests of the MIC.  Look at it this way, when we look for austerity, why are iraq and afghanistan off the table?  Why are public employees, pensions, retirement benefits, medical benefits, etc. on the table first?  Look at it another way, bankers offer an air of plausible deniability to the MIC that allows the MIC to expand in an unmitigated fashion.  I think your analysis presupposes that the MIC would not expand indefinitely of its own volition....  it would...  it can either do so with bankers or without them.  Either the government prints its own money or the "independent" banks do...  either way, the MIC expands.  In this sense, the banks just end up being a tool for the MIC, not vise versa.

Again, when the time comes, the banking parasites will either be destroyed or cannibalized...  the result is the same.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:49 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

If that was the total case, then NK would be a superpower, no?  Bankers allow that imaginary budget to be real for them.  The MIC can't take more than what the people have but with Bankers, they can take many future generations payments up front.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 19:10 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Obviously demand in and of itself is insufficient to materially affect the real world.  The point is, that once it becomes obvious our monetary expansionary policies are causing a detriment to our ability to secure key oil infrastructure, then the throw aways to the banking middle men go out the window.  That function may, if necessary, be picked back up by the government directly.

The bankers do not operate independent of everything else.  They have their own tribute payments to make.  They are only allowed to operate because their interests coincide with the MIC's.  The MIC takes from future generations through the banks...  the banks are not the end...  they're simply the means...  no one is disputing that the money changing mechanism and creative financial gimmickry has allowed the MIC to expand its size and scope...  what I am disputing is that the banks, as they developed, were the only way this would happen.  In other words, "If the banks did not exist, then the government would create them."  (I think B9 has stated this as a rework of voltaire).

The way it developed is irrelevant to the determination of who pulls the strings and their methodology.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 15:26 | Link to Comment faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Neither can enjoy continually expanding power and influence without the divorce of the meaning of money-notes from anything real in the world.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:07 | Link to Comment asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

Marc Faber McAlvany Interview 23 February 2011.

 

 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uEbhPuoTx0

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:27 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

"MIC"?    Somebody help me out here... what's that an acronym for?

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Military Industrial Complex

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:02 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Men in Chaps

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:48 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

Men in Cunts, i thought†

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 15:05 | Link to Comment Straykitty
Straykitty's picture

I agree.  Do you think that the MIC's imperative is the end in itself, or is the MIC merely a tool used by another entity "less B9?"

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:24 | Link to Comment Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Metastar - my money is on the black. They will never ever stop, just tap the brakes from time to time to give the illusion of control.

If they stop we roll over into absolutely undeniable deflationary depression.  If they continue, with periodic braking, spinning and lies, there at least can be the Lysol of certain price appreciation (however skewed and absurd, I know) to cover the stench of a cratered economy and 2nd-World status.

Thus, those in power have a chance to retain it.  And those trying to get power, are in no way going to do it with an AUSTERITY CAMPAIGN aimed at deflating EVERYTHING.

Sections of inner No. Cal. look like Tijuana; take a drive down Highway 99 some time.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 15:36 | Link to Comment iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

+Modesto

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:38 | Link to Comment B9K9
B9K9's picture

Put yourself in the position of Dick Cheney, who made this statement back in 1999:

Producing oil is obviously a self-depleting activity. Every year you've got to find and develop reserves equal to your output just to stand still, just to stay even. This is as true for companies as well in the broader economic sense it is for the world. A new merged company like Exxon-Mobil will have to secure over a billion and a half barrels of new oil equivalent reserves every year just to replace existing production. It's like making one hundred per cent interest; discovering another major field of some five hundred million barrels equivalent every four months or finding two Hibernias a year. For the world as a whole, oil companies are expected to keep finding and developing enough oil to offset our seventy one million plus barrel a day of oil depletion, but also to meet new demand. By some estimates there will be an average of two per cent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead along with conservatively a three per cent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day. So where is the oil going to come from? Governments and the national oil companies are obviously in control of about ninety per cent of the assets. Oil remains fundamentally a government business. While many regions of the world offer greet oil opportunities, the Middle East with two thirds of the world's oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies, even though companies are anxious for greeter access there, progress continues to be slow.

While I enjoy the bitching & griping @ ZH as much as the next fellow, it's all rather mundane once one understands the big picture.

There is only one valid explanation to describe the outright lawlessness & looting operations taking place on a global basis. Those who know, know; Those who don't are like idiot birds pecking at dangling mirrors.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:07 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

That speech is/was a serious tell... It dovetails very nicely with the first 1/3 of Phillip's American Theocracy

Those who know, know; Those who don't are like idiot birds pecking at dangling mirror

 

LOL....

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:07 | Link to Comment alpds
alpds's picture

"...it's all rather mundane once one understands the big picture." 

"There is only one valid explanation to describe the outright lawlessness & looting operations taking place on a global basis."

I strongly believe that it is the job of those who know to inform those that do not yet know. That's the only way we can defeat the monster. 

I'm curious for you, what is your explanation? 

 


Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:08 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

These can't help either.

For now they are limited to Wa. But recently it was pointed out that Wa property values has dropped something like 37%.

The egg thing is just icing on the cake.

http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2011/02/redfin_now_showing_700_more_foreclos...

Redfin Now Showing 700% More Foreclosed Homes

Last night, we flipped the switch on a different data source that gives us a more complete picture of the number of foreclosed homes that are not yet listed for sale. This is a part of what a lot of people refer to as the shadow inventory — homes that have been foreclosed upon by the banks, but not yet processed and put back on the market. These are foreclosed homes that are still waiting in the wings

 

The change we made yesterday increased our coverage of these pre-listed foreclosed homes from under 10,000 properties to more than 80,000. This change also provides a more complete picture of each individual home. For instance, we now show the auction price and date for many foreclosed homes — these are the results of failed auctions that have already taken place.

http://humanewatch.org/index.php/site/post/peck-peck-pecking_away/

f Washington voters were to approve it, this measure would make it illegal for Washington farmers to raise egg-laying hens in cages. Additionally, regular eggs would be banned from grocery stores. (Unlike in California’s “Proposition 2,” there’s no ambiguity about whether farmers can use “enriched” cages of the type that Temple Grandin and the American Humane Association endorse. They would also be banned.)

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:52 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

And one step further, those shadow-inventoried homes have not yet been booked as losses on The Banks balance sheets. This calc is what renders the banks insolvent.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:48 | Link to Comment AsIseeIt
AsIseeIt's picture

Well, since we're being honest regarding shadow inventory (:.  On the commerical side, approximately 65% of the distress product is being held off the market.  Simple cacls extrapolating available CMBS data to the larger market.  CMBS equals roughly 14% of the total estimated commercial loan debt.  So it is "statistically significant" for a general estrapolation.  The real scary part is this inventory cannot be cleared at current market prices and with the GSEs (Fannie & Freddie) currently on the wind down path, there goes well over 90% of the current debt liquidity in the commericial markets.

Anybody seeing a major demand driver for commericial real estate on the horizon?

 

Quick clarification - talking about multifamily product (apartment buildings of 100 units or more).

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Cheney made the speech in 1999.  It's now 2011.  Have we run out of oil, yet?

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You are either trying to be clever at rhetoric or incredibly stupid. I am leaning to the latter.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:28 | Link to Comment B9K9
B9K9's picture

I wish Tyler would institute a simple yes/no question during the registration purpose: Are you a troll? If yes, then the troll would have to audition before a couple of regulars like CogDis, et al. Upon evaluation for wit, style and perhaps most importantly, reactive potential, the new applicant would then either be approved or denied.

Good trolls are invaluable to any blog, financial or otherwise. Harry, Hammy, Johnny B, RNR, and increasingly, MoreCritical & Smails, are really good at what they do. The others, not so much. Nothing is more boring than a tiresome troll who doesn't quite measure up and fulfill this important duty.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:37 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 I am fairly sure that the some of the denizens here regard me as a troll!

But I agree, your Troll Turing test would be useful and I would like to think that I could pass it...

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 15:14 | Link to Comment painequalschange
painequalschange's picture

Heh, trying to imagine a Troll CAPCHA

Q: "What is a better investment, FRN's or physical PM's?"

A: "PALIN 2011!!!!!!!111111"

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 21:31 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Like I said.  The speech is 10 years old.  Iraqi oil has been limited during this period.  Yet the oil still flows.  Maybe in 2020 Cheney and you peak oil gnats will be validated.  Come back in 2020 and let us all know.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 03:49 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  BR

 Do us a favour, write 1 or 2 paragraphs on what you think peak oil is. Let's start there, ok? 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 15:12 | Link to Comment painequalschange
painequalschange's picture

"Good trolls are invaluable to any blog, financial or otherwise."

That is a fascinating concept

Are you sure you mean "troll" which is very nearly the same as a provocateur, or do you mean someone who would represent the contrarian position / devil's advocate?

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 15:22 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  That is my take, provocatuer... emphasis on good. Otherwise, blogs can evolve into the online version of "Two Minutes Hate".

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:44 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

[ahem]

You are ALL STUPID FOOKERZ!!1!! Don't you know OIL COMES FROM UNICORNZ!? We will nevr run out of ANYTHING EVAR not oil and not YO MAMA!1!

PALIN 2012!11!!!!!!!! or something. BOOYAH!

 

Well that was fun. Now back to securing the Internet ...

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 21:24 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

As I told you peak oil gnats before, if you want to hear soothing, mindless drivel, go to the oil drum. 

This is ZH, gnats.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 21:26 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Buzz, buzz little peak oil gnat.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:33 | Link to Comment Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

@B9K9 - I always enjoy your posts, though you don't post much anymore. Please stop by more often.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:13 | Link to Comment sunkeye
sunkeye's picture

neg junk +1

tho i think like politics all economies - global domestic municipal - are local

and every one w/ its own cliff

eqypt and wisc coming to all our towns soon

i dunno know how we get out of this but i dont see how

it aint gone be pretty

? cap all pub pensions at median us inc

? means test socsec any inc > 100k excluded from cks

? all govt spending frozen at current level for 10 years

? for every 1$ inc in taxes 2$ across board cut in spending

every one of the question marks brings its own crowded square

of demonstrators

welcome to the boom town and i mean KA-BOOM

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:36 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

Foreclosures in the extended surburban ring will accellerate.

I am on the etreme western edge of a large SMSA.  Moved here because within 5 mi. there are acres and acres of state and county parks and consevation reservations.

In 2009 median income was $112,470

In 2009 the median price of a condo was $157,000.

While trolling Trulia the other day I saw a condo short sale listed for $70,000.  It was about 7 yrs. old.

As commuting costs get pricier, housing prices in the outer rings will collapse.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:37 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

So $124 oil is just fine. Oh and ignore Brent look at the cheaper west texas.

Shitnbc is clueless. Avoid, it rots your brain.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

it seems that the person known as "some moron" is making statements on all the news channels on a frequent basis. it has been rumored that "some moron" is also running the treasury and the fed at the same time.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:03 | Link to Comment SPONGE
SPONGE's picture

That's Dr. Moron, Ph.D., to you

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:16 | Link to Comment AZSovreign
AZSovreign's picture

What does the Nomura on the chart indicate??

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:18 | Link to Comment jowenchrist
jowenchrist's picture

nice T's -

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:34 | Link to Comment AZSovreign
AZSovreign's picture

Oh heh duh,, thanks!

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:17 | Link to Comment jowenchrist
jowenchrist's picture

as baggs-of-hairy-weener would say - " this shows the strength of the world recovery & it's good for americans" !

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:30 | Link to Comment Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Obama said that there was plenty of oil, so I think everything will be fine.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:38 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

There is, but you'll pay more for it. Speculators gotta eats.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:43 | Link to Comment Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

He didn't say anything about paying more for it. That seems like a pretty important point - he probably would have mentioned it.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:45 | Link to Comment Raymond K Hassel
Raymond K Hassel's picture

+1

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:06 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Oh, yes mi amigio, HE has said from DAY ONE, were going to pay thru the kiester for energy, and prices would neccesarily skyrocket.

Now, was he just talking electrictiy, Nat Gas, or Gasoline?.

HE was taking all 3.This is how we get millions of cars off the freeways, and millions more to walk their mortgages.

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:23 | Link to Comment Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Sarcasmo, compadre, though based on the junks I'm guessing I'm being too subtle (again).

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:47 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

No, I got it at least. We enjoy our sarc chilled on the rocks. Carry on.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:37 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

And every protest/riot is a signal of consumer confidence and positive outlook.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:16 | Link to Comment Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

An excellent point. I mean, when and where do we usually see riots? Often times it's outside stadiums after a team wins a national title. So riots = celebration. What better way to show your enthusiasm than to flip a couple of cars over and chuck a few molotov cocktails?

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:49 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

And the police enjoy the overtime pay.

Everyone leaves happy.

Everyone leaves.

Everyone.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 04:58 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  I gotta admit, I like your style. Serious, I mean SERIOUS deadpan. And I thought I could be cynical...

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:19 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Great chart - but if you could give a similar chart for  Europe continent / country or Japan it would be much appreciated.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:56 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Keep in mind the following for Europe in terms of transport costs :

1° distances are shorter in EU for average trips. We walk, they drive in  US.

2°° there is a dense public transport system al over EU. We take bus, train, tube. They take car always even to buy a loaf.

3° In some countries like France 80% of electricity is produced by nuclear. I don't know what it is elsewhere. The sooner we go green the better for our future. But that return on investment remains dicy as we are in an energy roller coaster. No doubt over ten-fifteen years it will pay itself out if there are industry economies of scale and continued innovation in green.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:35 | Link to Comment AZSovreign
AZSovreign's picture

Soon to be deadflation for all of us it seems.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:41 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

yep.

And this is the great battle.

high Oil = Deflation

high printing = inflation

So benny is now tilting against Oil derricks.

Mano y derricko!

ORI

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:51 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

(High oil || no oil) == deflation.

That's a bit more inclusive of the set of options.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:22 | Link to Comment Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

It's impossible to really predict how the surging price of such a relied-upon, pervasive, and cheap (heavily-subsidized) will affect people, except to say that it will be absolutely devastating

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:35 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

As far as work, and driving, Americans will do what it takes.

The larger issue, and the one that starts the SHTF is heating and Cooling your homes.

Very few areas of the US can do without heat, quite a few can do without a/c.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 11:34 | Link to Comment sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Apparently, you don't live in the south, so heating is more important. 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:22 | Link to Comment johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

whats missing is the cost to heating your home increasing with fuel cost

heating oil is a bitch as is NG and propane

 

i'm convinved the need for heating oil is driving people to sell their coins/gold/silver on places like craigs list

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:26 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

That's pretty random. Why do you think that?

I checked last night, and there is only one guy within 400 miles of Lubbock that is selling silver on Craigslist, and that is a bit overpriced. There was a chandelier in Abilene that had silverware on it, not sure if it was real silver or plated.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:39 | Link to Comment SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

People are selling in Dallas.  

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:07 | Link to Comment Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Also, I think more people in the Northeast & Plains would need heating oil more than in TX or other southern states.

 

And yes, I know it gets "cold" there too, but the # of heating days is much higher in Minn. or Maine as compared to Texas.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:42 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

One word, SUMMER.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:29 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

During Jimmy Carter's time in office my family retreated to a single heated room.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:31 | Link to Comment Just Observing
Just Observing's picture

That work ? 

 

Or did Carter follow you ?

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:39 | Link to Comment FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

FTW

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Poofter Priest
Poofter Priest's picture

 

 

*snicker snicker*

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

"a single heated room"

Motel 6? Wonder why the metal bugs get a bad rap... Word. Poor Tyler.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I lived through the Oil embargoes and long lines for gasoline.

I've not only seen what it does, I experienced it firsthand. It gets ugly.

Go buy a bicycle and fit it with a basket because you're going to need it.

Google 1970's bike boom

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:30 | Link to Comment lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

oh god no ..... not that again.    i used to ride a bike with side baskets over the back wheel & had to haul my groceries to my apt. !    i couldn't even afford a car, let alone the gas to put in it.   i'll never forget when the box of graham crackers started going up in price !   i was upset;  "but, those graham crackers used to cost 35cents !!! "    

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

lynnybee

"i used to ride a bike with side baskets over the back wheel & had to haul my groceries to my apt"

 

But you had killer thighs and ass. Fair trade off.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:31 | Link to Comment Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

+1

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 15:44 | Link to Comment Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Not meaning to boast (well, maybe a little), but I'm 57, live in upstate NY (where Mother Nature has just dumped a fresh 9 inches of snow) and I have been riding a bike most of my life. Weather permitting, I will ride up to 20 miles a day, do most of my shopping with the help of a large backpack, play tennis and am healthier than most of my friends, despite smoking 2 packs a day and boozing heavily.

Why do I mention this? Because as Firesign Theater told us back in the 70s, EVERYTHING YOU KNOW IS WRONG! We've been brainwashed to believe that tobacco causes cancer when the truth is the additives probably do. I smoke natural tobacco and roll my own, have no morning cough or any of the usual ill effects. Driving cars everywhere is an absurd habit fostered by the major industries - you can figure out which ones. Riding a bike not only saves money and the environment, but is good for you both physically and spiritually. There are few more feelings more satisfying and mind-freeing than cruising along at 20 mph (or faster) on a swift 12 or 15-speed machine.

And, yes, I have killer thighs and abs, though not so killer in winter. By mid-May, I'll be absolutely buff and laughing as I share the road with countless idiots paying $4/gallon.

Now, I do use a vehicle when necessary, but I average less than 3000 miles a year. So, if they pump it to $6/gallon, it won't bother me much, though I do believe we should switch to nat gas fueled vehicles.

Americans are the dumbest people on the planet - by design.

Dislodge yourself from the tyranny of bad ideas like the 40-hour work week, mortgages, debt, automobiles and pills and you'll be happier and healthier.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:12 | Link to Comment Tedster
Tedster's picture

I'd like a large pizza to go... No anchovies...

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 21:36 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

You're lucky you've still got your brown paper bag, small change.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 09:43 | Link to Comment Pee Wee
Pee Wee's picture

"Americans are the dumbest people on the planet - by design."

Don't forget the American disclaimer, do as I say not as I do.

They are fast heading to be the laziest, too.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:11 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 Those old Schwinn's are going to be like 60's muscle cars.

Odd or even license plate numbers, remember that?  LOL.  I remember people switching out license plates so they could fill up that day.

Ugh.

The building I'm working in is from the 1950's, and in the 1970's every door and light switch had a yellow sticker with black and red lettering that says "Please turn off lights when not in use to conserve energy" put on it.  They are still here, but the 20 somethings' leave the lights on and go to "green" rallies and think that plugging in an electric car will save the planet (never mind that most of our electricity is from coal fired power plants).

It will be worse this time around; much more delusion and much less ability to "endure". 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:35 | Link to Comment Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

"It will be worse this time around; much more delusion and much less ability to "endure". "

I am as pessimistic as anyone and yet I see a small core of young people around who know the score.  But we are all in the U.S. headed into a dark place, to be sure, once the 2009-2010 fantasy of Recovery can no longer be sustained.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:47 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

I lived thru it all, and it's been my experience that 99% of Americans will get used to whatever they have to.After all, what choice do you have?.

That Oil crisis was contrived on puropse, the US .Gov wanted to see the reaction to it by We the people.

We had every empty hole, and tanker filled to the brim sitting full.And we were fed a crock of shit.

Had a friend who's son was an Exxon wonk, and told Dad exactly what was going on,and why.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 09:57 | Link to Comment Pee Wee
Pee Wee's picture

20-somethings and elderly are to be crucified - with respect to the former none see it coming from the view in their parent's basement (except maybe the few liars and trons on ZH).

The mindset is that someone will come and do their work for them, and they are right. Their lunch is being devoured right in front of them and they do absolutely nothing, just like their parents.

The elderly have been robbed blind, and in my experience they can't wait to perish.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Bitch Tits
Bitch Tits's picture

"The elderly have been robbed blind, and in my experience they can't wait to perish."

I'm curious. Doesn't this happen with every generation? Isn't it human nature to steal from the weak and helpless? Don't we use them up while they are young and healthy and too inexperienced to know a lie from a truth? Then, when we've used all their productivity and they approach old age, we steal everything from them and leave them in smelly homes where they will die in their own urine?

Yes.

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:25 | Link to Comment silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

  Alot of the poor that have to heat with kerosene and #2 heating oil are getting punished..Thats why walmarts sales are down and dollar generals are up..That will continue until people can somehow keep a few more dollars in there pocket..

 I do wonder how the lottery is doing..Seriously, Im curious if people will gamble anyway or are they cutting back on those mega ball tickets also..The states count on a ton of cash raised by lotto's, you got to think that its getting hurt also..

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:26 | Link to Comment johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

story this morning on news about increasing sales of lottery tickets

 

people trying to get rich or stay even or make up for job loss with a big win

casino business down though

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:31 | Link to Comment Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Desperation.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:15 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

The lotto is a hopelessness tax.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:27 | Link to Comment aheady
aheady's picture

+

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:37 | Link to Comment Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Poverty Tax

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:35 | Link to Comment Huck T
Huck T's picture

ah, yes: the idiot tax

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:29 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Math is hard.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:39 | Link to Comment Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Much better odds going to the racetrack

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:31 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Lottery sales are down in Georgia.  Unfortunately this is what funds the Hope scholarship.  Sorry kiddies, no school for you.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:32 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Saying lotteries fund anything in particular is fairly disingenuous insofar as accounting goes...  It funds everything given the natural reduction in educational costs...  the reductions in education costs are then spread throughout other funds...  helping to prop up bernie for one more installment.

The problem of course is when you rely upon the temporary and fleeting lottery ticket sales because you did not treat them as a separate, unique item, but instead utilized them to help cover your other operating expenses...  anything to prolong the inevitable.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:39 | Link to Comment silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

Ah yes..kinda like hunting and fishing licenses,and tags and fee's, and boating tags and fee's etc. etc. ? I have forever thought that all of those tags and fee's were missapropiated by seeing the decline in waterway's and the layoff of park workers, atleast in my area anyway..I know all of those outdoorsman/women havent declined... 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:48 | Link to Comment Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

In North America, there was a war on gambling for a long time - until the governments realized they could make a healthy buck or two. They had to legitimize their change of heart so now all governments claim a percentage of their proceeds go to support some popular social cause (usually involves kids). Ahhh!

Edit: In a similar vein - Pharma can sell THC but no others : http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/02/23/dea-to-legalize-marijuana-only-for-big-pharma-group-claims/

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:34 | Link to Comment Thisson
Thisson's picture

Read this article if you're not afraid to find the obvious answer:

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/23/opinion/23kristof.html

 

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Slim
Slim's picture

There are so many more impacts outside consumer transportation.  Air travel, shipping, heating, power , plastics etc...  I would love to see an attempt at an all-in analysis of US and potentially global.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:11 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Slim

"There are so many more impacts outside consumer transportation.  Air travel, shipping, heating, power , plastics etc"

I have yet to notice the massive increase in dvd or cd blanks. Fuck I'm not even sure cheap plastic childrens toys have been on the rise unlike the collectable scam ones.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:25 | Link to Comment bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

Hmmm, Food, Gas or Mortgage Payment. What do Americans pay first?

Does anyone know of an analysis done where the 2008 spike in oil fast tracked the housing meltdown?

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:36 | Link to Comment bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

Just found an article on this subject:

http://www.iol.co.za/business/business-news/oil-spike-a-game-changer-1.1...

 

Big double dip in housing coming if oil continues to rise.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:37 | Link to Comment Huck T
Huck T's picture

The dip is already here, but this will damsure drive it on...

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Fox-Scully
Fox-Scully's picture

None--Alcohol is first

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:26 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

so, you're saying it in "their" best interest to push oil down or else.....DC and NYC start looking like Libya?

 

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:27 | Link to Comment Zeddicus
Zeddicus's picture

My wife and I both drive economical 30 mpg cars, but we're now spending almost as much on fuel to get to work as we are on food for our family; soon fuel > food.  To top it off, monthly food and fuel combined now exceed the total of our mortgage (plus taxes & insurance).

Since prices started spiking on everything, we now have nothing left to cut from our budget as virtually all of our expenses are basic necessities.  This is not good.

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:44 | Link to Comment Raymond K Hassel
Raymond K Hassel's picture

>>soon fuel > food

I doubt it, fuel costs will affect food prices  ++fuel < +++food

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Pee Wee
Pee Wee's picture

You're in luck, bonuses for fraud are up which means piss trickles down.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 11:00 | Link to Comment Bitch Tits
Bitch Tits's picture

"Since prices started spiking on everything, we now have nothing left to cut from our budget as virtually all of our expenses are basic necessities."

Wow, did I just go back in time to 2008?

And we all know how that ended up. 

And we all know who caused it.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:27 | Link to Comment Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

$220 oil would suck for people below 3x median income.  Good bye middle class.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:29 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Put any savings into silver and you will at least keep up, and likely exceed that price rise.  It has worked well for me so far.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:14 | Link to Comment Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

You must not be one of the PM true believers, they would never exchange an ounce of the precious stuff for FRNs.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:11 | Link to Comment Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Also, most "middle class" have no savings other than what might be in a 401(k)/IRA.

 

Those folks would literally need to stop paying their bills & buying gasoline to generate the funds necessary to purchase PM.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:31 | Link to Comment Zeddicus
Zeddicus's picture

No kidding.  At that rate, the gas to get to work and back will be consuming 17% of my daily take-home wage.

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:39 | Link to Comment bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

With that kind of trade off, your take-home would be better if you quit your job and took any min wage job within bike riding distance and collect the "Earned" income credit and food stamps.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:36 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

Sadly, most people who work full time at minimum wage do not qualify for food stamps. 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:08 | Link to Comment cxl9
cxl9's picture

Why do you believe things that are demonstrably false? What does that say about you?

I used Oregon as a test. Minimum wage is $8.50/hr. Eligible for food stamps: yes.

https://apps.state.or.us/fsestimate/

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:44 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Not only that but earned income credit, cheaper housing, you name it...

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:21 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

What does your question say about you? 

Let me tell you about about Arizona and Michigan, of which I have direct knowledge.  A single adult would not qualify.  Period.  Additionally, these states offer no housing assistance to anyone who is not disabled (except in a limited few gang-dominated public housing complexes in urban areas of Michigan.)  In years past I've checked other states and found most were the same.

Right now, using your link, I figured $8.25 per hour * 40 (hours per week) * 4.3 (weeks per month, which is what DHS uses) = $1419 monthly income. 

I plugged in Rent of $1,000 and $2,000 per month and the outcomes were the same:

"You may qualify for up to $40 per month in foodstamps." Obviously, you wouldn't qualify for more if you had lower rent/higher disposable income.

Looks like Oregon is a liberal state--not that $40 is gonna keep the hunger away.

I trust that it won't be necessary to demonstrate that to you?

I'll suspend judgement on the omnipresent question regarding the people who have overrun the internet spreading lies about welfare in your case.  Perhaps it was an honest mistake. 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 12:43 | Link to Comment lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

i want to look for a job, have always wanted a job (husband has a good enuff job to support us both if i really watch the budget) , but, it doesn't pay to buy a car, insure a car, fill a gas tank, buy a lunch out, pay the taxes ... so, i am forced to sit home twiddling thumbs cause i cannot afford to go to a $8.50 / hr. job !!  

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Just Observing
Just Observing's picture

Quit twiddling....raise a garden, raise chickens, all KINDS of things you can do and never leave home and make more than 8.50/hr when you figure no taxes taken (yet....give 'em time) from your home efforts.  75% of our food, 1/3 of our electric (solar), 100% of our heat (wood) and so forth comes off our place....and guess what ?  My social security statement looks like I DIED about 10 years ago...0,0,0,0,0,0,0....ahahahaaa

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:13 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Just Observing

"all KINDS of things you can do and never leave home and make more than 8.50/hr"

Porn chat rakes in the big bucks.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 13:46 | Link to Comment bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

Meth lab, moonshine, herb growing.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 15:05 | Link to Comment PeterSchump
PeterSchump's picture

"My social security statement looks like I DIED about 10 years ago...0,0,0,0,0,0,0....ahahahaaa"

 

So will ours after paying into it for all of these years, and the only ones laughing will be the criminals in NY and DC and possibly you.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 02:31 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

A nice idea, but not a reality for most Amerkans who are trapped in large cities and areas and cannot now sell the house they have been paying for/taking care of for the sake of the banks and DC.

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:01 | Link to Comment bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

dbl post

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 14:44 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

lynnyB, i am a granny as well. i am making beautiful boxes. satisfying to just make them. my whole like i pressured myself to always try to make money at my different crafts i had skills in. pottery, glass blowing, weaving, chinese brush painting, oh probably more. never could break even, just trying. the ceramics and glass are energy whores.

 

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 16:32 | Link to Comment Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

+10 ..that 'grannies' are reading ZH.

Fri, 02/25/2011 - 18:55 | Link to Comment Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

I thought you said you had a job (crappy) at a coffee place or bakery a while ago?

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