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Implications For Gold In The Aftermath Of The Greek Crisis

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the euro having dropped substantially from a high of around $1.51 to less than $1.40 in the span of a few short months, it has sent gold buyers looking for cover, mostly as a function of the linear (and at times sigmoidal) inverse correlation between gold prices and the DXY which throughout 2009 has held surprisingly strong. Yet will a dollar scramble prove that the recent flight to gold has been premature? BofA believes that while the near-term implications for gold are as of yet undecided, relying on both € (bearish) and risk (bullish) signals, the long-term drivers for gold should be price supportive, especially for EUR-based investors. Proper positioning can be adopted using OTM gold calls, which are not only no longer as rich as they were a mere month ago, but would benefit substantially should Greece indeed follow through with an actual default and result in a flaring of all risk indicators, further precipitating a flight to euro alternatives, among which the dollar, and gold, are dominant.

Bank of America suggests:

In the case of an actual default, even an orderly one, increased systemic risk is likely to support gold prices as investors look for a safe haven. The more disorderly the default turns out to be, the more upside we see on gold. However, if Greece just muddled through the crisis or ends up being bailed out, gold may not fare that well. If the Greek problem does not spread to other countries in the Euro area, gold prices are likely to suffer due to a weaker EUR against the USD.

 

[T]he long-term consequences of Greece’s debt crisis for gold prices are clearly constructive, in our view. Emerging Market central banks are ever more aware that gold is one of the few viable alternatives to the USD. A deterioration of Greece’s creditworthiness, even if bad for the EUR, should support gold prices in the long run, in our view.

The main question, as discussed previously, is how will EM central banks decide to allocate their trade surplus FX reserves. Contrary to some gold-bearish perceptions, it is very likely that an increasingly deteriorating Greek situation, will force EM CBs not only to unwind € holdings and use the resulting capital to purchase dollars, but to augment their gold reserves as well. Thus the price determining factor will be decided in the marginal scramble for dollars versus gold.

Emerging market central banks (EM CB) are ever more aware that gold is really one of the few viable alternatives to the USD. Top holders of currency reserves like China, Russia or India will likely need to increase their exposure to gold over the coming months and years as the value of fiat currency reserve holdings like the USD or the EUR comes into question. The obvious problem with diversification is that there is simply not enough gold to go around. So a deterioration of Greece’s creditworthiness, even if negative for the EUR, should be supportive of gold prices in the long run, in our view.

And with gold prices still, presumably, reflective of a dollar-destruction rampage courtesy of the Federal Reserve, what would be the proper way to express a cheap bullish bias toward a spike in gold prices should a risk-flaring episode come back once again? BofA suggests that clients look to gold OTM calls, which are no longer a ripoff compared to ATM calls. In fact the call skew in gold, which still bullish, is half as expensive as it was on November 20, 2009. Yet investors most likely to benefit from such appreciation would likely not be USD-based speculators but those found in a EUR regime.

In our view, gold OTM calls look appealing for investors willing to play a potential Greek default through the gold market. Volatility levels have been declining and 3M ATM implied vols are now trading at levels last seen in late 2007. While the gold options market continues to price in appreciation, together with the CNY and the JPY, the call skews in gold have become less pronounced. That is, OTM calls are no longer as rich as they used to be when compared to ATM calls. In the event of a default, gold prices and volatility are likely to spike. If Greece’s problems are contained and the EUR (and gold prices) suffers, investors are protected on the downside. USD-based investors may find gold to be an ineffective hedge in this event. However, EUR-based investors could, in our view, hedge by buying gold calls in EUR, as the price of gold in EUR terms should remain well supported.

 

The biggest concern for outright gold longs will be whether the transfer in mentality from one of continuous dollar debasement in which the demand would come from traditional USD-based investors seeking to hedge and capture stock gains by allocating increasing capital to gold, to a perspective of gold as an increasing investment allocation for central banks, who seek to abandon the euro as a capital flow and pursue less risky exposure. Should this increased central bank demand be coupled with lack of incremental selling by those who already are in possession of Gold spot and future positions, and the probability for increasing gains in the fiat-alternative seem to accelerate. Lastly, for some additional insight into the crystallizing plight of the German government vis-a-vis Greece, as well as the increasingly torn fabric of the European Monetary Union, we strongly recommend the latest piece by Evans-Pritchard, "Should Germany bail out Club Med or leave the Euro altogether?"

 

 

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Sun, 01/31/2010 - 17:06 | 212636 etrader
etrader's picture

Greece has around 112 tonnes of Gold.

That could potentially be off loaded into the market  as part of its debt restructuring program.

 

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 17:21 | 212652 10044
10044's picture

true, BUT if anyone were to offload gold, it would be the IMF and as soon as they do, the Chinese are there to devour it, heck they might even buy off market prices.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 18:31 | 212679 etrader
etrader's picture

Shame BofA have overlooked this  potential 112 tonne supply overhang.?

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 20:13 | 212742 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

What was that you say?

Greece has 112 tons of debt? Since when are they weighing debt? That's bad ...

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 00:56 | 212936 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

BUT that is awesome your thesis is based upon the actions of china.

Really, the shortcoming of mises is that given liquidationist theory assumes government screws the little people under the fed and how is china succeeding?

a lot of bankruptcy has occurred, where is the private society? Mises ouch.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 21:58 | 212788 Reven
Reven's picture

Greece has a GDP of $357 billion (2008).  112 tonnes of gold is only about 1% of their GDP and debt.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 17:13 | 212643 abalone
abalone's picture

Will the RBA's decision to raise interest rates in Oz reignite the USD carry trade later on this week in turn strengthening gold as inflation starts to rear its ugly head?

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 18:15 | 212678 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

I think the RBA may actually stand pat on rates this time around. However, they have done stupid things before, raising rates may strengthen the dollar, which is not what they need right now.

I'm 50/50 for a hold this time.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 19:45 | 212725 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

No.

1.  Deflation, not inflation.

2.  USD rally.

3.  Gold breaks down from a descending triangle and plummets as the "gold bitchez" crew dumps.

The markets are on the brink here, and that includes all commodities too.  Pretty much all charts are bearish although potentially are bullish for the next week.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 21:15 | 212766 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

have you crushed your balls straddling that fence yet?

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 23:53 | 212868 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

That is a really strange Master Bates technique.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 06:43 | 213082 Crime of the Century
Crime of the Century's picture

Strokes of something other than genius...

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 04:36 | 213054 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I think he's hanging from the fence upside down with the points of the fence skewering through his man sacks while singing a wonderful rendition of "Noboy knows the trouble, i've seen. Nobody knows my sorrow." In a strange tenor voice.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 21:50 | 212784 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Deflation vs. Inflation gets a second round.  Deflation won the last round 10 to 9.  It really did get close at the end, with gold's winter run up, not to mention Britain and China admitting inflation had commenced.  I am looking for a second round knockout from inflation.  Bernanke is back and with his lucky printing press in his corner.  gold and silver snitches....

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 23:28 | 212846 abalone
abalone's picture

Gold is teetering on the edge & BB's pill press (sorry printing press) stalling! Which way it goes tomorrow is critical. Another sell off would re-affirm deflation where as the usual Monday pump by the FED will confirm that the PSi levels are maintained.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 17:17 | 212646 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Etrader it would be interesting to see the Greek reaction to the selling of its families gold.

We could see these events moving from the economic to the Geopolitical sphere

I am no expert on Greek affairs but I can imagine the Greek army having a more important role in politics all of a sudden

Has anybody got any information about the role and importance of the Greek military in the political game at the moment

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 19:02 | 212698 peaceful
peaceful's picture

good observation dork.. the scoop is that after the 7 yr regime of the colonels, greeks flocked to the left . The country at least until now, gives very little power to the military. The guy to watch for is Samaras--he may change this as he just won his party's election. He actually has some ties going all the way back to the colonels and he won the election on a somewhat "nationalistic" platform.

 

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 17:18 | 212648 xamax
xamax's picture

Mid and longer-term, this totally failed construction called European Union is not sustainable. Greece is only the top of the iceberg while Germany is by far not so strong as generally assumed. Sure UK has its problems but at least they were not so stupid to join the Euro.

Here a personal example on how the EU works:

A friend of mine works for the European Central bank (EZB). While he takes a nice salary, he is allowed to work more than half of the year fom home (home office). They have 2-3 times a year a so-called study trip (usually in a 5-star hotel) and can bring their partner with them (useless to say that all is paid by the EZB). That's how it works.      

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 10:13 | 213174 Anton LaVey
Anton LaVey's picture

1) It's the ECB, not the EZB (easy bee?)

2) Perks & all-expenses paid trip: how is that different from hundreds, nay, thousands of corporations out there?

You need to get around more.

Oh, and if you think Greece is a problem for the Euro, just wait until the UK defaults on its debt. That will do a lot of good to the pound sterling.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 17:24 | 212654 10044
10044's picture

The best clue to go long on gold came last week when [the criminal] Soros said gold's in a bubble. If he 'says' or 'indicates' he's selling, that's your clue to buy, because definitely he's a buyer.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 17:45 | 212664 WilliamShatner
WilliamShatner's picture

I found it an odd statement, coming from Soros. 

He went long on gold starting 2 or 3 years ago, buying physical gold and shares in mining companies.

If you put his recent comments in context you can see he was saying that unsound fiscal policies by governments and the printing/creation of currency are setting the stage for gold to be "the ultimate bubble".

Wake me when the gold bubble gets as big as the dot com or real estate bubble, until then I'm continuing to buy gold.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 17:52 | 212668 10044
10044's picture

"Wake me when the gold bubble gets as big as the dot com or real estate bubble, until then I'm continuing to buy gold."

sure, that'd be when it his $7k+

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 22:50 | 212822 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Spends all day remodeling and repainting his gold. Man maintenance on this stuff is a bitch and expensive. I now know why it's so cheap.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 18:11 | 212676 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Agreed. Most folks the only gold they own is a gold ring, earrings or necklace. I haven't seen bidding wars or folks whipping out credit cards to buy it. Soros also holds as of Oct 09 263 million of GLD.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 20:03 | 212736 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Soros hold GLD... hmmm, maybe he knows they need to dump those tungsten plated gold bars for those with actual gold within them so is trying to lower the price of real gold bars?

Frankly, Soros must have an angle as only a fool would have anything to do with the GLD scam other than for perhaps a day trade.

ASK YOURSELF: do you really trust that these ETFs have the gold they claim and GLD's counterparties that store said gold are not leasing it out or creating/forming/leveraging some other paper gold on top of their paper gold. As an example, GLD can hold NOT GOOD bars for proper delivery to the market and they do not insure their gold holding. Add to that, there are many other serious situations one should consider before choosing GLD or other ETFs.

Read GLD's 10-k filing at www.spdrgoldshares.com/media/GLD/file/10k_Sept08.pdf and pay special attention to pages 54 to 62.

Bottom line, if you want to invest in gold i would do as GLD's largest shareholder did months ago.... they sold their GLD holdings and purchased physical metal and took delivery. In this day and age counterparty risk is to be avoided imho.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 21:17 | 212768 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

i heard Mr T is shorting gold next week

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 13:00 | 213315 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

The gold ETF's are nothing more than the same thing that the banks do with their leverage. And if the COMEX is not delivering physical, then what is one to assume?

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 19:47 | 212727 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Real estate bubble, up 60% over its course.

Nasdaq, up 2-300% max over its course.

Gold up 400% over its course.

How is that not a bigger bubble?

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 23:28 | 212845 hack3434
hack3434's picture

 

Real estate bubble, up 60% over its course. USD coming down from the 120 peak

Nasdaq, up 2-300% max over its course. USD@120+-

Gold up 400% over its course. USD<80+-

How is that not a bigger bubble?

You do the math...

 

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 18:11 | 212675 etrader
etrader's picture

To quote:

"When I see a bubble forming I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire. That is not irrational" -( From Soros Introducing the theory of reflexivity).

Thats what the mainstream outlets missed when interpreting Soros bubble remark

last week.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 19:10 | 212706 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

Thats what the mainstream outlets missed when interpreting Soros bubble remark

 

Mainstream outlets are part of the wall street machine.

Nothing was missed.

Report the zig while the chosen 1'z do a  zag.

;>]


Sun, 01/31/2010 - 21:58 | 212789 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Great quote; the mentality stands correct with GLD in respect to radar SoroS and his cronies.  have fools invest in gold etfs, have soros do it, have fools feel comfortable, have gold go up to $10,000 an OZ, announce that the gold is not real real gold, fools lose.  poor fools.  and i forgot to add the part when soros pulls his shares out before the news hits the street.  easy money, buy physical.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 17:47 | 212667 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Putting aside structural flaws in the Euro construction, Jesse has the appropriate chart up on who own the gold...
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/01/official-world-gold-holdings.html

Browns bottom and rumors of trouble in the
London Bullion market only compound the problems of overreach and bankruptcy. Perhaps that accounts for the strident Labour calls for action on Iran. Germany on the other hand is strinking business deals.

Greece = proxy. With the US flexing its military muscle in China this weekend re Taiwan, are their similarities to be drawn to the US threat during Suez to dump Sterling bonds?

caveat emptor

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 17:54 | 212669 10044
10044's picture

I totally forgot about LBMA's thing... absoloutely right, cirmex and LBMA could 'both' go broke if delivery fails. one can only hope (not Obama's kind of hope)...

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 17:56 | 212670 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

OT No hijack intended...

Morgan Stanley looking into legal action against ZeroHedge

At the beginning of the week, financial research firm and industry online publication The Davian Letter posted a story that compared a Morgan Stanley research note written by Jim Caron to a story published by Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge. The Davian story laid out an argument that Zero Hedge was taking data charts fromMorgan Stanley research and printing them as its own. Phrases like “serial plagiarism” and “stealing of intellectual property” were thrown around. At first, it wasn’t clear if this was nothing more than a blogger war between two sites, which make their mark publishing unique market views, trying to clock the other out.

Then on Tuesday, Davian published another example that got the attention of the bank’s research team leader, who sent the post to his legal experts to determine if there was any real wrongdoing. Caron told the Greenwich Time he’d didn’t read ZeroHedge before this and had no further comment.

Today, we learned Morgan Stanley isn’t going the take the alleged research lift by online publication Zero Hedge lightly.

In a letter seen by Greenwich Time, Mitchell Bompey, executive director of legal and compliance for Morgan Stanley, writes “Morgan Stanley greatly appreciates your post by Dexter Morgan on Tuesday, January 26, 2010, exposing the plagiarism by Zero Hedge of recent Morgan Stanley research. We are reviewing that site now for possible legal action. Without your article, this abuse of our intellectual property may have gone unnoticed.”

A spokesperson for Morgan Stanley would not comment on the type of legal action the investment bank is thinking of taking against Zero Hedge. While we did hear a lengthy explanation from Zero Hedge that almost sidestepped the issues at hand, those connected with the Web site would not comment on the record, so unfortunately we can’t give you their side of the story. But we have no doubt they will publish one, on their own site, after this news comes out.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 21:16 | 212767 merehuman
merehuman's picture

ZEROHEDGE is my truth in finance hedge. I am everyman and no man begging you all to PLEASE  

dont mess up zerohedge.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 22:28 | 212814 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

.... my thoughts exactly...... love ZEROHEDGE ...... you find the truth on ZEROHEDGE ......sincerely.....

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 01:55 | 212981 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Um, yeah, I think you did intend a threadjack. 

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 03:27 | 213017 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

And then some. Not exactly a unique post.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 04:43 | 213058 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

It's kind of funny when you think about banks thinking they possess intellectual property.

I heard freddie and fannie made up a few hundred thousand counterfeit houses.

It's amazing that you can build houses with your mind.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 18:07 | 212673 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

USD will be lifted by the Greek drama/comedy. Whatever is done in Europe to resolve the crisis will damage the Euro and the European union.

Plan on what you will do if gold goes down in USD terms.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 10:28 | 213187 Anton LaVey
Anton LaVey's picture

USD up, Euro down.

Most European countries are export-oriented countries. A cheap Euro makes their exports more competitive.

A strong USD is also a strong argument for investing in US Treasuries, which is exactly what the US Government wants you to do right now.

A match made in heaven.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 18:17 | 212680 Madcow
Madcow's picture

Greece could sell their gold. So could the IMF to finance the bailout de jour. But there's a whole lot more "bailout" in the pipeline than there is gold. 

The amount of fiat money (both official and "shadow") that has vaporized DRARFS the total amount of all gold that has ever been produced. 

 

 

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 18:49 | 212694 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Zimbabwe-Iceland-Argentina-Viet Nam-Greece--Ireland-Spain--

All the Baltics in fact--N Korea

No majors--yet--but the ripple effect is in play--

The list gets bigger

Soon we'll be talking majors--

Yen/GBP/CAD/Yaun/EUR ?

Which will be sold down first--don't matter--

They all wait in line--this is genetic--

Their incestual relationship dooms them all,in the end---

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 18:50 | 212696 Gunther
Gunther's picture

To me the way suggested to play a Greek default does not make sense.
Gold options denominated in US$ plus currency conversion to Euro is possible but a short Euro/long US$ should bring the same result with appropriate leverage.
In case things spiral out of control after a possible Greek default something without counterparty-risk  seems a way better bet. Farmland, canned food, gold and for yanks guns and ammo come to mind.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 19:10 | 212705 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

As investment returns come back, gold will go down.

It doesnt carry well in a positive investment climate.

-BBH

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 21:09 | 212764 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

like from 04-08 ? drivel

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 23:34 | 212851 hack3434
hack3434's picture

Lol I remember when flipping houses was cool and everybody and their cousin had a realtor license. Invest! Invest!!! 

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 19:19 | 212709 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

So BoA - via Zero – wants us to:

1. Remind ourselves and contemplate for a moment, in silence, on how the USD and gold are alternatives.

2. Greece muddling through to the other side, so that the EMU does not implode, is somehow USD positive.

3. If Greece on the other hand explodes, EMU implodes (and therefore USD gains over the EUR, which rates such an event as USD positive), well - if such be the case - then gold will surely surpass the USD.

3. BoA then sees how EM CBs - in their view - see gold as one of a “few viable alternatives” to the USD, again?

4. Hence, BoA, via Zero, concludes, that further rise in the price of the Greek »sovereign CDS« (over the Califlowernia one), though LT EUR negative, should nevertheless support the PoG (& let’s leave the USD out of this one).

5. Then, let us remember that EM CBs see gold as one of a “few viable alternatives” to the USD, again.

6. Despite that, the EM CBs will – nevertheless - find out that they have to hold more gold because the gold is not in fact an alternative neither to the EUR not the USD but they will find no more gold available, at such point, to “go around”.

7. So, to summarize: “To you, you E(M)U based targets - the gold options market continues to price in appreciation, together with the CNY and the JPY, the call skews in gold have become less pronounced, that is, OTM calls are no longer as rich as they used to be when compared to ATM calls ( = an end of a rip-off). Join our “sovereign CDS” spread pumping game and enter these gold calls so that, in the end, you too just like EM CBs, will find no more gold available to “go a round”. The last fool.

If such is the talent in banking then surely, I am excused for the length of this post. Same - as for talent - goes for both posters, that rated the above pile of bollocks with 5 stars.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 19:22 | 212713 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

112 tons = approx 3.5 mil ounces and $1,200 an ounce = roughly $4 billion unless my math is wrong of course.

Their debt is 300b Euros?

Argentina.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 19:23 | 212714 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

112 tons = approx 3.5 mil ounces and $1,200 an ounce = roughly $4 billion unless my math is wrong of course.

Their debt is 300b Euros?

Argentina.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 19:46 | 212726 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Whats wrong with silver? You can go down to the local gas station and buy four plus gallons of regular with four pre 1965 US quaters just what I paid for it in 1973.. the silver is 16.00+ and junk is about 11.15 per dollar face, not much change there in thirty seven years

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 21:32 | 212774 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

leaded?

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 19:48 | 212728 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Greece is not going to default - that party is over. Greece will be bailed out, perhaps as early as this week, and the Euro will come off lows, as interest rate expectation starts to kick in.

I am long EUR/USD as we speak and expect to profit handsomely from this contrarisn stance this week.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 20:35 | 212750 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

If Greece is bailed out next week, then they won't default next week. If Greece isn't bailed out soon, the probability they do default will increase.exponentially to the delay.

Right now, Greece doesn't have a real plan - only a 'fake' one. It is the ECB/EMU that is muddling. The EMU needs to have bailed Greece out last year - or better, 2008 - then the current nonsense would not be taking place.

In order for the bail to occur, Europe needs a lot more euros. The longer the ECB waits, the more euros they will need! The ECB needs to start printing. These new euros cannot go into the pockets of finance swindlers as in the US, but rather further down the economic food chain.

Adding more euros into circulation will be interesting. Gold priced in euros will become more expensive, while gold - and oil - priced in dollars will become cheaper. Let the (national economy destroying) arbitrage begin!

Because Saudi Arabia (?) has pegged crude oil to dollars the short dollar trades are becoming more and more difficult to maintain. I don't know from gold but I put gas in my car today.

How about you?

 

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 21:35 | 212777 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

who's the Greek God of bailout??

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 10:31 | 213188 Anton LaVey
Anton LaVey's picture

Khrysos.

See here: http://www.theoi.com/Daimon/Khrysos.html

"Khrysos (Gold) is a child of Zeus; neither moth nor rust devoureth it; but the mind of man is devoured by this supreme possession."

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 13:08 | 213334 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

Good stuff thanks for the laugh man.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 20:56 | 212757 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

in the absence (or apparent incarceration) of PM there is this:

More than 1,200 tiny quakes hit Yellowstone Park

"One of the world's largest volcanoes slumbers at the core of Yellowstone."

http://www.missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/article_9db5e032-0a22-...

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 22:16 | 212786 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

OT

The preliminary total on the 2010 auction is in - $8.06 million, about $3 million more than last year.

“Ladies and gentlemen, we are a recession-proof auction,” auctioneer Humphrey Butler proclaimed.

e.g.

Lot 56: A Big Bite of the Big Apple – A four-day trip to Manhattan for two couples with the best seats in the best restaurants, Yankee Stadium and live tapings of your favorite television shows. Sold for: $170,000.

Lot 57: Makin’ Mighty Tasty Music and a Toast to Tennessee – Two couples will explore Nashville, enjoy a dinner for 15 at your home featuring Gargiulo wines and take home three large format bottles. Sold for: $110,000.

http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2010/jan/30/live-updates-how-2010-naples-...

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 22:03 | 212793 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Factor in pissing off China -

You can take your Elliot Wave counter bullshit, top or bottom formation, head and shoulders patterns and throw it out the window for a technical analysis of gold if China supports the fundamentals by giving the US the one-finger salute (dumping of their US holdings) because of weapon sale to Taiwan - http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.eba0f1f44dc56eaae2cdf53db03b2f4e.661&show_article=1

If China says get bent the “stimulus” measures, propping up of the housing market, stock market, fractional reserve banking structure, FDIC, unemployment benefits, 401Ks, IRAs, pension funds, social security, Medicare, and most importantly warfare  frauds would see the light of day in the fact that they are based on empty promises and debt funded Federal Reserve Notes.  Once the Alt-A, Option Only, and CRE defaults quicken in pace the hundreds of trillions in derivatives will also be quickly exposed. No amount of accounting fraud will cover up the market losses of these banks and the American People would surely rise up in the face of another extortion attempt, at least one would hope. What the hell is Obama going to do when China tells us to begin wiping our ass with FRNs?  Deflation in the above mentioned paper games, inflation of real money and food/energy.  Right? 

I don't know what the hell I am talking about......ohhhh isn't American Idle rewind on? 

Thank god Ben knows how to fly a helicopter. The printing presses were apparently just being warmed up.  Chinese proverb say a butterfly flapping FDR wings in Beijing will causes helicopter dispense paper money. 

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 22:14 | 212805 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

+1

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 03:37 | 213023 Gold...Bitches
Gold...Bitches's picture

What the hell is Obama going to do when China tells us to begin wiping our ass with FRNs?

Something along the lines of Executive Order 6102 signed on April 5, 1933 by FDR.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 22:07 | 212797 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Currencies are playing musical chairs.  All falls down.  Support stands STRONG at $1080.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 22:15 | 212806 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Paper is in a race to the bottom of the ocean of debt while gold will float along. 

You can't eat paper you know. 

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 23:18 | 212838 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

The developing Iran story coming out tonight is the beginning of the engineered market collapse. The Kenyan will stop at nothing to get his control and destroy the constitution. So, put everyone in a bread line and they will come crawling for you to save them. Time to ride bearish ETFs. This shitstorm is going to be ugly.

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 23:19 | 212839 chrob
chrob's picture

good analysis of how the price of gold has done recently in light of the GDP report:

http://www.goldalert.com/stories/Gold-Price-118-off-Highs-as-Strong-US-Dollar-Weighs-on-Gold

 

 

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 23:34 | 212852 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

guys 112 tonnes is not even $4 billion worth of gold. Give me a break, a fly on the windscreen.

This gold correction too shall pass, refer to the excellent sprott piece picked up by ZH at the end of last week. Bubble my ass!!!

Sun, 01/31/2010 - 23:49 | 212865 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Greece will NOT sell their gold. They would default on their debts long before even contemplating that act, It is their only leg to stand on. Playing in the paper gold market is a suckers game, go physical.

Soro's was using double speak. He worded it in a way that would scare a few away but he meant that gold is the one thing that will benefit when all other bubbles go bust. "The Ultimate bubble"

I like FOFOA's description better. Gold is the "Ultimate Un-Bubble"

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 00:14 | 212887 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

gold hit by carry traders unwinding, AUD did a kamikaze dive this morning, bad start to the week. good luck to goldies

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 01:20 | 212954 CombustibleAssets
CombustibleAssets's picture

Odd little problem in Ireland.

Irish banks owed €6B by shaky Greek economy

Sunday January 31 2010

A SMALL group of Irish banks may be dangerously exposed to more than €6.1bn in perilous Greek debt, according to a new report.

Greece is teetering on the edge of a financial abyss, with increasing fears that the country may default on its debt as Greek bond yields soared on uncertainty over the economy.

This has led to suggestions that Europe was preparing a rescue plan for the stricken Balkan state. The exposure may take the form of sovereign, corporate and bank debt, according to BNP Paribas analyst Olivia Frieser, citing figures from the Bank of International Settlements in a report to clients.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 09:35 | 213157 Stuart
Stuart's picture

AND the US has California, NY, Illinois.....etc... oh, ya... another $1.6T in debt to be added just THIS year.   Always easier to look in someone else's back yard if yours stinks like shit to high heaven too. 

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 09:33 | 213154 Stuart
Stuart's picture

Seems pretty clear gold is an option to either the Euro or the dollar as these two increasingly are called to support untenable debt levels.   Just a matter of time but both will fail. 

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 22:53 | 214278 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Gross Deutschand will not bail out the Greeks with free money. It is payback time for Greece. How many wehrmacht POW's did they execute? Payback is a bit#h. There will be Hell to pay. See Crete? Thats now East Bavaria. Thank you.

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