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No, investors will be pushed off the table, not down the yield curve. Why on earth would anyone let the US government hold on to their money for 10 yrs plus when they are already afraid of losing money by only loaning it out for 6 months?
The above analysis is correct. "Real money" uses long
dated treasuries (due to their positive convexity) as a means to extend the av. duration of their portfolio. Also
treasuries are used as a hedge against the negative
convexity of mortgages. Real money has a view and uses
different tools in the rates mkt to more express their prevailing views on volatility, inflation, asset/liability
management. As derivatives gurus are somewhat of a dirty word at the moment it seems folks are reverting to the "old" ways.
The carry trade can sit it out for some time as their
dollar short can be rolled back into the yen if need be
as the curve won't flatten anytime soon for the above reasons. Also the mystery direct bidders of late could be
any number of folks for the reasons I've just cited. Don't
forget 60% of the world's assets are dollar denominated
and we are a reserve currency.
If I had your pretense that dollars always had value then I would agree, but I do not agree with the assumption.
Evidently your view is in the minority I haven't seen the
dollar tank anytime recently or have I missed something
please enlighten me. Further to that what assumption
are you referring to that you disagree with? Kind of
lame in my view to say I disagree and not even say why.
If I recall correctly the dollar lost 10% of its value in 2009, which inversely means there was inflation because there was a loss of purchasing power. Ignoring that fact however my point was that if people are afraid to lend the US money for longer than 6 months because of the uncertainty of lending them more for a longer period of time, in order to agree to purchase UST 10yr or 30yr you would have to assume that the interest rate was out pacing the loss of capital due to inflation or that the dollars value would remain some what static.
And I told you why I disagreed, I don't believe that the dollar has any intrinsic value, further more I doubt you could tell me what the value of the dollar was other than some idiot is willing to trade you stuff for it.
When the equity and bond markets become political tools to indicate the extreme political whimsy of the day, instead of being rigidly true economic indicators or barometers of the mass inputs of free market agents, people investing with their OWN money walk.
The nationalization of the USA economic processes (from health care, heavy industry--GM, war contractors, banking system) and the Stalinization of our markets are a DEEP confirm of the Potemkinization of our wealth drivers.
America is a producer of the accounting unit commodity ($$) which it uses with abandon and without restraint to exploit the labour pools of the earth in an ad hoc slavery contract. Its absolute and competetive advantage is in muscle, extortion, fraud, control of money supply, and crisis management. Occasionally it produces superior leading-edge technology and design, but offshores all production.
A greater majority of USA citizens have been so marginalized that they have little ability for productive input. The smaller wealthy minority use the USA as a base with a very secure mercenary force to protect the perimeter and use the rest of the world as their resource and labour inputs while infiltrating all gov't's to direct policy to their advantage.
Gov't's dependent upon this minority for direction and corrupting influence cannot be trusted irrespective of bond yield enticements. The public purse is newly and openly devoted to the advancement of the wealthy elite untroubled by conscience or scruples.
Investors outside the game may find yields seductive,until and ever, they are relieved of their fortunes by the manipulations of a banking elite/shadow banking cabal.
You should post this about every 2-3 days until everyone gets it thru their head.
I second you recommendation annon.
Huh? How did you come to such a jaded view of this
country? Are you natural born US citizen or here on
a work visa? Clearly you are not of the Republican
persuasion but you sound sorta communist in your views.
My recommendation if you don't like it leave otherwise don't bite the hand who feeds you. Possibly China or
Russia is more to your liking go there and see how
much fun it is. Don't believe everything you see and
read in the press Utopia exists nowhere but in your
i am a natural born usa citizen and find that the hand of
government is the hand which oppresses....
considering republican vs democrat is the height
and if you would like a little history lesson about
the hand which oppresses, it would be appropriate
to reflect on the murder of martin luther king....
mlk was not murdered by james earle ray as the cia
controlled newsfaking press would have it....no
mr king was murdered by a consortium of the cia,
us army, memphis police department, local hoodlums
lead by the fbi....you can read about it at
the mlk website or look up james douglass on
and i will bite the hand which murders and steals...
if your brain weren't sitting in your butt you
too could be addled.
In response Mr Genius to your first paragraph it's
been done for decades. An insurance company etc tries
to match their assets to their liabilties. If they have
long term liabilties in the form of annuities sound management says closely match assets to pay for those
commitments at some time in the future get it? Just
because you can't make a quick buck off their thinking
doesn't make this category of investor wrong in their
behavior. Having a CFA certfication comes to mind about
now. Check into it you might find it worthy of your
attention. I forgot you must have more weighty matters
on your mind.
In your final paragraph who are the outsiders that find
our yields seductive that are relieved of their fortune? Realty is you have it reversed savers of the world
just snuck off with a fair amount of the US net worth
due to our spendthrift ways fortunately we seemed to
have learned our lesson before it's too late. However
many folks now find themselves long alot of junk worthy
only of a garage sale. These investors you refer to I
have a novel idea why not buy their own paper? I can
assure you these investors were sophisticated and
have their eyes wide open when they make an investment
decision maybe you should ask them why they buy $
denominated investments in bulk.
Q: Why would any small or mediuim sized business want to leverage themselves right now when any and all business not related to fading porkulus is going nowhere fast? And I mean real revenue growth, not cost cutting.
A: Regardless of the huge rally in the bs US equity market, the real economy is still in the toilet, and there are not enough willing borrowers even IF the banks wanted to lend, which they don't.
Therefore the hypothesis presented in the last paragragh is unlikely. Further, if short term rates somehow moved up, the Fed would be compelled to follow, but in the process they would destroy even more people with floating 2nds and HELOCs, which would then make the upcoming Alt-A debacle worse and make the garbage assets on banks balance sheets worth 40 cents on the dollar rather than 60 cents.
Long rates, on the other hand, may "surprise" everyone and go down or just stay flat, especially if an "event" scares the algos out of equities.
Why do you think business is so bad?
Restaurants are full. Good hotels are full. Intel just posted great earnings and most technology companies look very strong. Financial companies are getting stronger, and look like they will have a good 2010. And with commodity prices higher farming, mining, and industrials look good.
The consumer is starting to benefit from v v low housing costs, with rents down 10-50% and purchase prices lower by the same. In the long run, lower home prices are a very good thing.
Unemployment is a lagging indicator.
Which planet do you live on?
He lives in Potemkinville.
I hear it's a nice place somewhere near Stepford.
it looks like the newly discovered planet of the
here and now that reads a financial journal once in
awhile. I recommend you visit it from time to time it has clean air which is condusive to good brain function. Sound appealing?
What part do you guys disagree with?
That good restaurant owners continue to just produce cash-flow? (Check for this Sat night at 8pm? Cannot get a table). Course this also means waiters, bartenders, meat sellers, etc.
Or that lower house prices are good for everyone? Economic growth is being able to produce/afford more for everyone. We can all afford alot more So. Florida condo than we could in 2006.
Time is on the side of recovery.
Quite prompted by frustration at people who seemingly
don't think before they write. God invented the preview
button on blogs for a reason to read and think about
what they are saying. Don't just sound off with some
lame insult try and come up with some reason if and
why you disagree. Friendly debate is a good thing. Hurling insults is childish and counterproductive. I want to
believe the members of this blog are at least voting
age for gosh sakes.
Where do you live? In the disUnited States, Canada,----
I know, Washington,D.C. where business is truly booming with all those new government employees doing shit, but doing it well.
As long as we're discussing anecdotes from anonymous sources, I feel like I should add my thoughts to your comments: You obviously don't live in a farming community. Come on out to my community, park in front of the general store, walk in, grab a cup of coffee, walk up to one of the dairy farmers there who has been paying to work for the last year, and tell him that farming looks good. If you didn't catch what I have just said: many dairy farmers in this country have been losing money for every hundred weight of milk they produce for the last year. They've either had to sell their herds, in order to not lose money while producing milk, or keep milking and lose money for every day they break their backs. "Farming looks good." Do you have any idea how hard it is to farm while you are making money. Commodity prices are up and so is fuel and grain. Profit margins haven't been thin, they've been negative. Now farmers can break even. Lets break out the champagne and celebrate our new found prosperity. Sorry for the sarcasm.
Here in the Bay Area - restaurants really are packed. House up the street sold in 3 days. Lots of pending signs on other homes. False sense of security here, in my opinion. Most of my friends are optimistic so I come here to keep in touch with reality.
Makes sense that SF is doing well. Technology looks strong. Intel should lead MSFT, HPQ, Dell and the PC space. iPhone and Google are in even better shape.
I think the rough numbers on the apps store is that App developers are making roughly $100M/month and that number could easily grow annually at 2-5x. Lotsa start-ups will chase that revenue.
Love the people here who think, "its all downhill", "the US makes nothing". Grab yourself an iPhone and get the econ101 app and a few business publications.
To the dairy farmer -- you make a number of fair points. However, I do think that higher commodity prices are key to farm income as fixed costs are significant. 1-yr ago had to look alot worse, no?
Here in "Fabulous Vail" and the surrounding areas, depopulation is problematic since the former construction and development industry has shed hundreds of jobs.
Community College enrollment is up 10-15% as remaining adults re-train - our local solar technology classes are full, for example. Some local solar programs have 2 year waiting lists. Sales of solar systems themselves, even in the face of the lowest materials costs ever, have plummeted - trainees graduating now are having difficulty finding local work. Certified building energy auditors are getting $100/hr to train more auditors, rather than do audits.
Skier-day numbers are down, despite season pass prices that equal 6 days of day-rate tickets. 70% of commercial space, much of it brand new, in downvalley areas is vacant. County sales tax revenues are down 20%. Aline passenger counts are down, as are ground transportation passenger counts.
Property valuations are falling, though slower than in some areas, and Eagle County government is laying off staff, with those still working told to expect more layoffs next year and the year following, when the actual effect of lower valuations takes effect. Garfield County, with a $50MM budget last year, expect to only be able to fund $30MM this year.
$19 million dollar, 20K ft/sq luxury homes are not selling in Aspen, even with prices SLASHED to only $11.9MM!
It's a tourist area; the best restaurants still require reservations - but you can call in the afternoon and evening and get in a 8pm when two years ago you had to call 24 hours in advance.
Data for the sausage makers ... make of it what you will.
(Dis)illusions of grandure, what 'Merica knows best.
Anon wrote "Why do you think business is so bad?"
Check out California and Illinois, which are two of the most populous states in the union and proxies for the national picture. As you will soon find out, entities that are not part of the Fed and Treasury money laundering and counterfeiting scheme will be allowed to fail; and guess what, there is no federal bankruptcy protection for states. Why will they fail? Cash is disappearing from plunging tax revenues on both an individual and corporate level. Why are tax revenues plunging? Because business is that bad. When states fail, they simply can not pay people anymore, and that will be when the tidal wave starts. And again, it will foreshadow the national picture.
Let's see how far the IOU's go before someone says "I need cash to eat." And then the margin calls will start, and won't stop.
JC, predictions? JPM to take control of CA? Jay, ME Diamond(!) for (Supreme)Governor? Sup?
I'm massively long 25 year zero coupon bonds. The most crowded trade in existence right now is the "inflation is just around the corner". LOL!!! Is private sector credit grown right around the corner too? How about the tooth fairy?
I'm short gold for essentially the same reasons. Not massively short though - not yet anyway.
government yields rose 1930-1933 (sidney homer, a history of interest rates).
"The most crowded trade"? You jest? "Tooth fairy"? Try BS Bernanke telling me "inflation is not a concern." Here is your tooth fairy, with his lower mandible flush in white, he is a talking skull. Yes...
Tyler thanks to you- Marla-and ZH staff for all your hard work......
This is the Feds form of layaway as they are trying to use time as an ally.
Great work, ZH.
Anybody who pretends to know which way inflation will break and when is posturing. This is beyond confident prediction.
anybody got any thoughts on the Treserve crew ratcheting up attempts to bring long yields down aggressively now in anticipation of march end QE and the spring home buying season?
My guess they are trying to artificially spur more credit consumption via borrowing. And if long rates move lower they can point to it as a symptom of deflation and give them the excuse to continue QE.
First of all the government doesn't need to artificilly
do anything there is no evidence of inflation and at
the moment. There is real demand for treasuries on the
long end for a variety of reasons just pointed out
in the above blogs. They will continue QE because they
feel they should no conspiracy there. Borrowing from whom
and for what? last year saw record buybacks from US cos.
that could in the bond market.Credit at the household
level is contracting and it's not over. You summed it
in the beginning with "My guess"
Asset decay and general anxiety will continue to drive people and other financial custodians into US Government debt. But there's just not enough new cash being generated by the economy to feed all the rents public and private.
So sure - they can keep the money rolling into the Treasury and into the Fed - but at the cost of the destruction of everything else.
Unless the West reduces government spending by 75%, there's forced borrowing and monetization to make up for the money that isn't being invested - not because of lack of will or confidence - but because of a fundamental lack of EXISTENCE.
The magical gold-egg laying perpetual motion machine has been destroyed.
Exactly! It's just that we haven't seen that reality reflected in the markets and pervceived value of the currency.......yet.
The bubble has burst and the government/Fed is trying everything in their power to reinflate that sucker with very little effect other than to stave off the real collapse for a few months/years. However, for each day they hold off the raging flood that will come the water keeps building behind the dam.
When the fucker finally bursts it going to be a real disaster unlike the faux crisis of fall '08.
I guess you've never lived in an economy going through
the delevering process. Prices are coming down because
of decades of overbuilding we are working thru oversupply both in commercial and residential markets that may take
years. Many me included believe creative destruction
is healthy. You act like monetization is a new
phenomenom we've been a fiat currency for quite some
time now. Money isn't being invested at the moment
because all the tarp money to the banks is being
tucked under the mattress in tsys. and working thru
a mountain of loans to households that are in default.
Lastly and most importantly what magical gold egg laying
whoo haw are you talking about that is destroyed seemingly
forever which happens to be a very loooong time last
time I checked.
From the "This can't go on! (but does, forever)" department...
Rasputin - Sat, Jan 16, 2010 - 08:37 AM
...comes Doug Noland's latest "Credit Bubble Bulletin", found here:
And one of the several key passages from Doug's rant is in regard
to the massive, staggering, exponential growth of US current account
deficits, resulting in "Rest of World" holdings of our bogus paper.
Here, let Doug tell you in his own words:
Taking a different perspective on the issue, the Fed’s
Z.1. “flow of funds” report has the Rest of World
(ROW) holding $943bn of U.S. financial assets at the end of 1985. ROW
holdings ended last September at $15.052 TN.
(Ras): That's right, folks. Over the preceeding twenty-five years,
the US has foisted FIFTEEN TRILLION FIATSCOS of debt and other
instruments on the bagholding suckers. Furthermore, as also discussed
by Doug in his article, the US has gone from a paltry three-billion
fiatsco current account deficit amassed throughout the ENTIRE DECADE of
the 'Seventies, to OVER FIVE TRILLION in the decade just passed--with
no sign of letup.
However, as a chastised Rasputin can completely corroborate, Mr.
Noland notes that the naysayers and Cassandras who have predicted our
imminent demise have had their collective noses rubbed in the "Bretton
Woods II" doo-doo for decades now, with any and all glitches, crashes,
collapses, and other minor "inconveniences" papered over with
ever-greater amounts of fiat flinging.
(Ras Conclusion): We're NOT, I REPEAT, NOT scroomed. Infinite Fiat
is indeed infinite. Deficits don't matter. All the above numbers can be
doubled, tripled or even quadrupled with no consequences or
ill-effects. All bears, GHSers/SHSers, US Treasury shorters,
housing-bubble-screechers and other miscreants and malcontents should
give up their rantings and ravings and buy AMZN, GOOG, and especially,
AAPL because either you're with us (the Bretton Woods II gang and the
hundreds of millions of sheeple worldwide), or you're against us.
I agree. They will keep pushing the ball down the road. The U.S. is isolated from much of the worlds maddness (politically and geographically). They will stop pushing the ball down the road when the U.S. becomes well...more like France.
The complication of the financial landscape will continue as it is the easiest way for the rich and elite to get richer. The little guy will get more screwed over time...this type of thing has been repeating throughout history over and over again...someday ROME will crumble but it will be quite some time before it happens (to the U.S.). I think it is enevitable for any government.
While at first what you are saying may seem too obvious, it is in fact the most important consideration.
As mentioned further down, all we really have to worry about is wars, famine, disease, etc. striking the US. Since the odds of those are generally low, we don't have much to worry about except whether QE2 starts on April 1, May 1, or June 1. So there is a timing issue, but not much. We had two corrections of about 10% in the second half of 2009, and basically they have almost been forgotten as the market keeps going higher.
One caveat - I am a small time Treasury shorter. The Fed won't be able to stop all interest rates increases - being the price of basic commodities and food will rise faster than most everything else, which will cause real inflation. More on that another day.
Actually, all we really have to worry about is declining global oil production. While we're awash with it now, with 137MM bbls in tankers alone (a <2 day global supply, that, at 80MM bbls/day), it's due to the recession.
Without increasing oil production, economic growth based on oil is impossible. MK Hubbert, 1956
Wake up, folks.
Infinite fiat might not matter to you guys over there in the 50 states and also the 51st but the rest of the world is getting seriously pissed off, we are expected to pay tribute to New York and London gangsters for a increasingly poor service (you do not even make good movies now) - in fact we are as mad as hell and are not going to take it anymore
If the US were in a vacuum it could work - but nobody wants our dollars anymore.
Has anyone already posted about derivative contracts just being the next clever way to capture foreign wealth? "Our banks" get bailouts if they make a wrong bet, but the Chinese realized its lose-lose because they'll just get more dollars anyway -
OK a layman's thinking. The number of debt instruments is going to shrink massively. That is the $3.4T in debt that is not going to be paid off is going to be written off. That means the supply of QUALITY debt instruments is going to come down massively, while there is a lot of demand out there. This will cause the price of government bonds to boom and interest rates to come down MASSIVELY. Like Japan in the 1990's. The value of the dollar is going to go way up. The Japanese yen was at 240 to the dollar and spiked all the way to 78 (an increase of over 3X). 3.4T is 30% of GDP, assuming the fed holds on to this debt it will take about 20 years to substitute Treasury debt for the MBS type paper it holds without causing the economy to collapse. This assumes the government puts it's own fiscal house in order and does not run a 9+% GDP deficit. It looks like deflation for the forseable future.
Just a thought.
With him or against him...this is a must read:
Meanwhile...back at the ranch...
Things That Scare Me
Fluorescent lights engage
Blackbirds frying on a wire
Same birds that followed me to school When I was young
Were they trying to tell me something
Were they telling me to run
The hammer clicks in place
The world's gonna pay
Right down in the face of God and his saints
Claim your soul's not for sale
I'm a dying breed who still believes
Haunted by American dreams
Haunted by American dreams
So this whole game will go on forever? What happens when physical gold runs out, and COMEX goes bust? The dollar system is only able to continue operating today because people can still go to their local pawn shop or online dealer like (apmex.com) and redeem their paper "fiatscos"
CAN GOLD BE INCREASED FOREVER THE SAME AS BONDS AND PAPER MONEY?
The first sign of the end will be when Chinese inflation (from maintaining the peg) becomes domestically (and therefore politically) unsustainable. This is starting to happen now, with inflation outstripping income growth.
That will start to make the peg unsustainable. Next, the Chinese will think about exiting the peg, but will want to maximise the value of their $US reserves before they exit (knowing full well that paper stuff will be nigh on worthless when they do).
So, they will start making more and bigger plays for US-based companies. If the authorities keep on rejecting those plays, based on nationalism, and if the Chinese stop just taking the rejection...then we are at the end.
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