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Initial Claims 388K, Miss Expectations, Previous Revised Naturally Higher To 394K, Would Have Missed Too

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And so we find that last week's surprising beat was actually a miss as is this week's, which came at 388K on expectations of 380K, last week revised from 382K to 394K. Snow not blamed as this number sets a big question mark on tomorrow's NFP number. Continuing claims last week was also revised higher from 3,721K to 3,765K, with this week missing expectations (3,705K) as well at 3,714K. And the 99 week cliff is impacting more and more as persons claiming benefits on all programs, including EUC and Extended Benefits, increased by just 4,372. A US Labour spokesman says nothing unusual in last week's claims, and revisions showed mild upward shift.

Full release.

 

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Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:32 | 1120829 oogs66
oogs66's picture

yeah, the headline is 'claims fell 6,000'....All is good...ignore that it missed expectations.  ignore that last week's was revised up 12k.  ignore portuguese and irish bond yields blowing out to new records

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:32 | 1120830 JohnnieWalker
JohnnieWalker's picture

What does shadaw stats have to say about this?

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:32 | 1120831 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

but did it rain?

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:36 | 1120832 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

When will this nightmare end...?

 

That's right, when the people actually do something about it... i.e. never, based on recent history... to call the masses Submissive is being too kind.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:06 | 1120957 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Lead by example, FMB.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:09 | 1120968 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Thats right, FMB. Why do the bullies keep bullying? Because the wire rim nerds who talk all day about the bullies unfair methodology never just smack the bully in the beak. And most all americans are perfectly content in their submission.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:49 | 1121111 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

Agreed. 

We are the flacid impotent welfare dependent co-conspirators that make this whole game possible. 

This is my fault.  Until the rest of the population recognizes this, the game will continue.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:33 | 1120833 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Santelli on Fire

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:43 | 1120844 Cdad
Cdad's picture

John,

Indeed.  The last real man left at the BlowHorn [CNBC].  

And as the circus really broadens...not sure how many tents we have now...Santelli has his finger on the real issue...incompetent people in DC that are currently set to make the biggest fiscal mistake in the history of the globe.

Great!

Additional:

Of course, the BlowHorn [CNBC] has gone wall-to-wall with the Sokol resignation.  Always right on top of irrelevance over at the Squawk.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:52 | 1120900 wisefool
wisefool's picture

I am starting to have hope for Joe. He is making some genuine (non MSM approved)  slips lately, but like today, he tries his best to cover up by saying he is only trying give Santelli raw meat for bait.

Meanwhile, (as CDAD mentioned) Becky Quick is despondant that Buffets' heir apparent is resigning. She's going to have to figure out whose going to be the new boss to keep her alise seat on Berkshire-One.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:19 | 1121007 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Wall to wall on Sokol continues on the BlowHorn [CNBC]...moving into the next programing hour with a surreal exposition by Bob zerocred Pisani...a 20 year veteran reporter on the floor of the NYSE.  Bob praises Buffet for putting Sokol out there on the BlowHorn so that "the media does not drag him around by the nose."  Again, Bob zerocred Pisani IS media.  

Yet another demonstration of just how far the networks have fallen away from their duty as the 4th Estate.  Hello COMCAST?  Any plans to even try to re establish integrity at the network?  And if not...why the hell did you buy the thing...considering that it is literally the last place news network?

Bizarro world continues marching on...

Man, I really miss shopping stories.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:40 | 1121302 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Why sit in the latrine and complain about the smell?

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:33 | 1120836 WALLST8MY8BALL
WALLST8MY8BALL's picture

Only u-RAIN-ium

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:35 | 1120839 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

No but next week they will blame the snow because of the big nor' easter getting ready to hit!

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:37 | 1120840 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

I see the ES starting to tremble a little......

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:40 | 1120851 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Don't worry.   They'll prop it up for month / quarter end.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:28 | 1121025 whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

....bonuses depend on it!

praise be the bernank! may his easing bring coke and hookers forever!

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:39 | 1120852 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

All countries need to Raise tariffs through the roof like they used to; what could happen other than self reliance, and potential propserity in almost all sectors, War ? Seriously we are in perpetual war now already (excuse me, kinetic)

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:44 | 1120859 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

They haven't used solar flares yet.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:44 | 1120864 Alea Iacta Est
Alea Iacta Est's picture

Stop spreading fear! We are printing new jobs as fast as we can!

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:46 | 1120865 Alea Iacta Est
Alea Iacta Est's picture

Bah, double post.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:47 | 1120873 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

"Almost half of the cost ($269 million) has come from the 191 Tomahawk missiles that have been launched into Libya. I think it is extremely interesting to know that each Tomahawk has more than a monster box (500 oz.) of silver inside of each missile. Pure silver has the highest electrical and thermal conductivity of all metals. When there is a $1.5 million dollar missile is being produced to secure more oil for the Empire, the Elite will use only the best materials to ensure the best performing results." -- Silver Shield

Obama loves to vaporize PMs!

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:59 | 1120922 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Ha Ha...you can't eat gold, but silver blows up real good.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:11 | 1120970 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

ya man, tell you what, that silver blows up real good like...we need to learn them libyans some lessons real good too 

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:51 | 1121112 Blano
Blano's picture

At 500 oz. that's over 30 pounds of silver.....seems like an awful lot.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:47 | 1120874 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

I am slated to lose my job which I have had 7 years tomorrow. +1.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:03 | 1120945 Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

Sorry to hear that, CM. I lost mine two years ago and at my age replacing like with like is impossible. Hope you're better positioned.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:22 | 1121014 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Both of you quit whining.  Don't you know the stock market is up?

(kidding, obviously)

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:30 | 1121044 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Nothing to worry about.  According to the news, jobs are plentiful and there's plenty of hiring.  If all else fails, maybe you can get hired by CNBC.  They are the ones saying plenty of hiring going on, so I would have to assume that CNBC is doing massive hiring.

 

Godspeed though.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:50 | 1120875 Bugman82
Bugman82's picture

I like the CNBC headlines:

-Futures Dip Despite Fall in Jobless Claims

-More Progress in Labor Market as Jobless Claims Fall Further

Also, if you were fortunate enough to watch the immediate breaking headline you would have seen the headline they had to change rather quickly to save face:  Breaking:  Jobless Claims Fall More than Expected.

When you can't spin the numbers just outright lie :)   Futures down 1 point, BTFD

Edit:  Actually the headline is still there!  http://www.cnbc.com/id/42356195

 

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:01 | 1120934 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Something's definately wrong with CNBC.  I've been standing here naked for over 2 years, and they don't even look my way.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:47 | 1120879 moneymutt
moneymutt's picture

So once again, jobless recovery. Private businesses are creating jobs more than before but many other private businesses are still shedding jobs and now govt employees will be losing work in greater number also. 

More and more is produced with less and less labor, meaning less people can get a piece of the action because simply there is little demand for their labor, education, skills.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 13:57 | 1122181 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Somewhere, robottrader is smiling....and raking in the dough.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:49 | 1120888 DispenzPez
DispenzPez's picture

All In The Family: Lying & Propaganda, the siamese twins of government subterfuge.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:52 | 1120892 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

I don't care what this says.  The CEO of ADP said everything was fine.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:00 | 1120939 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

The CEO of Wal-Mart says we're all about to tumble over the cliff.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/retail/2011-03-30-wal-mart-ceo-...

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:53 | 1120899 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

And I love how last week was a 12k revision.  12,000 f'in claims. 

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:52 | 1120905 DispenzPez
DispenzPez's picture

ADP: Always Disseminate Propaganda

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:53 | 1120908 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

We are literally drowning in an ocean of lies:

Per Bloomberg: initial claims decline by 6,000 from prior week, a sign that the labor market is improving.

Next week's headline: initial claims decline by 6,000 to 420,000, a sign that the labor market is improving.

The week after: initial claims decline by 6,000 to 450,000, a sign that the labor market is improving.

Everyone in the mainstream financial media should be dragged to the middle of the town square and shot.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 12:05 | 1121667 rrbluefin
rrbluefin's picture

Shot?  Too easy for them.  I suggest hanging by piano wire.  Let them feel just some of the pain the rest of us have been experiencing.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:57 | 1120917 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Initial claims still  higher than one would expect based on a recovery. But the long run average of initial claims (SA) for the last 30 years is around 384K (straight average). So it is the continuing claims that still makes the situation untenable. What is everyone seeing out there in terms of business activity? I have noticed a big drop off in the last few weeks...

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:57 | 1120919 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

The bullshit report. When are these guys going to really report the actual news.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 08:58 | 1120930 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

12k revision?!?  That has to be a near record for a revision on the initial claims. 

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:02 | 1120938 DispenzPez
DispenzPez's picture

Actual News: Can't do it, once the vault of lies is constructed pride and position take the key.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:06 | 1120958 usexpat
usexpat's picture

not to worry. Netflix, Priceline and Lululemon will still soar...What planet am I living on? This whole thing has become a farce.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:43 | 1120988 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

4 handle by June; will see a print over 500k by July, and it gets worse from there.

Japan is the catalyst that takes down what was a gutted out, sugar high, illusion of an economy and recovery - it would have cracked anyways, but Japan will accelerate the reckoning.

China is about to get absolutely drilled, as they are final point of assembly for a shitload of durable goods depending on Japanese fabricated components.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:43 | 1121082 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Guessing this week's number will be revised to 399,000 next week and the new number will come in lower at 392,000. Yes, we are making gains, my third grade math tells me so.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:45 | 1121092 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

I wish we could halt this recovery so gas prices would go back down.

 

........what?

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:48 | 1121106 Lone Mad Minute...
Lone Mad Minute Medic's picture

These numbers feel a whole lot better if you just increase your dose of Hopium. It would be best if all those older people who have no jobs just march off to the grand canyon and hurl themselves over the side for their dear leader Oba-Mao.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:51 | 1121123 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

How is this for a comedic spin job:

"Fewer people sought unemployment aid last week"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fewer-people-sought-apf-2639520745.html?x=...

The weekly inital claims number reported last week was announced as 382K.  That number was revised higher to 394K.  The weekly claims number this week was expected to be 383K, though it was announced as 388K.  Therefore, the initial claims number reported last week was revised higher by 12K, the number this week was 5K higher than expected, yet this is still good news...

When did the memo go out that the MSM is to put a BS spin job on every piece of data???

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:35 | 1121270 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

When Obama was elected POTUS.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 13:56 | 1122174 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

+++ - just ask yourself what the headlines would be with Bush or some other republican in there.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:07 | 1121174 HedgeFundLIVE
Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:18 | 1121200 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

More bearish than I've ever been.

The short term means nothing here.

This is the point where fundamentals catch up to fiction, and drown it.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:21 | 1121208 elagano
elagano's picture

Have you seen CNBC spin on this?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42356195

Title reads: Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected

When we read the article: "Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 388,000 the Labor Department said.
..
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims edging down to 380,000. The prior weeks figure was revised up to 394,000 from the previously reported 382,000."

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 11:05 | 1121398 moneymutt
moneymutt's picture

seriously, why don't regular working folks world wide demand 30 hr work week...full employment in no time. I mean, why is 40 hours magic number, it could easily be 80 hours, has been in the past.

Thu, 03/31/2011 - 11:17 | 1121442 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

I think you're referring to France.

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