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Initial Claims Up 410K On Expectations Of 400K, CPI Up 0.4% On Expectations Of 0.3%, "Food At Home" Index Largest Increase Since 2008
Initial claims jump 410K in the last week, on expectations of 400k, confirming last week's upwardly revised 385K print was "snow" derived. On the inflationary front, CPI jumped 0.4%, higher than expectations of 0.3%, previous 0.5%. The irrelevant CPI ex food and energy was up 0.2%, higher than consensus and the prior print of 0.1%. Food prices increased by 0.5%, and "The food at home index increased 0.7 percent, the largest increase since 2008."
From the CPI release:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Increases in indexes for energy commodities and for food accounted for over two thirds of the all items increase. The indexes for gasoline and fuel oil both increased in January, continuing their recent strong upward trend. The index for food at home posted its largest increase in over two years with all six major grocery store food group indexes rising.
The index for all items less food and energy also rose in January. The indexes for apparel, shelter, airline fares, and recreation all posted increases. In contrast, the indexes for new vehicles and for used cars and trucks declined in January.
Focusing on food and energy:
Food
The food index rose 0.5 percent in January. The food at home index increased 0.7 percent, the largest increase since 2008. All six major grocery store food groups posted increases. The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased the most, rising 1.5 percent, with the indexes for carbonated drinks and coffee both rising sharply. The fruits and vegetables index increased 1.3 percent with the index for fresh vegetables up 2.1 percent. The indexes for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs and for cereals and bakery products increased 0.9 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively. The indexes for dairy and related products and for other food at home posted slight increases.Over the past 12 months, the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs has risen 6.2 percent with the other grocery store food group indexes posting smaller increases. The index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in January and has risen 1.5 percent over the past 12 months.
Energy
The energy index continued its recent string of increases, rising 2.1 percent in January. The gasoline index rose 3.5 percent and has increased seven months in a row. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 3.8 percent in January.) The index for household energy declined in January, falling 0.2 percent. A 6.8 percent increase in the index for fuel oil was more than offset by a 1.2 percent decrease in the natural gas index and a 0.5 percent decline in the electricity index. The indexes for gasoline and fuel oil have risen significantly over the last 12 months, but the index for natural gas has declined 6.4 percent.
And the B(L)S update:
In the week ending Feb. 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 410,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 385,000. The 4-week moving average was 417,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average of 416,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent for the week ending Feb. 5, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.1 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb.5 was 3,911,000, an increase of 1,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,910,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,941,500, an increase of 3,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,938,000.
Those on EUCs declined by 127K in the week ended January 29 to 3,629,604, while those on Extended Benefits increased by 42k to 873,002.
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So it's all good news, then. See the futures are taking off now. QE3 - booyah!
Guessing talks of QE 3 start in March. Not long now...
It's already priced in, but that won't keep it from being priced in again.
When will they start pricing in QE4?
Bernank in rare thinking excercise:
"This ought to make the sheeple spend".
What about the WW3 pricing? When does that come in?
Would expect CPI to be higher. Who massaged this?
I sort of expect the weighting of food to be further reduced.
Here in the UK, the weight of food in the CPI index is 10.8%. With an average wage family, you have to eat pretty disgusting food for it to be anywhere near 10.8%, and this is no doubt progressively getting worse.
I don't know for the UK, but for me (in Switzerland) food weights around 20-25% of my income, with avg. 1 of 3 meals with meat. Should move to Argentina.
CPI. At this rate, all foodstuffs such as eggs, milk, and bread will be substituted with ramen noodles, ramen noodles, and ramen noodles.
CPI recipes: http://www.budget101.com/frugal/ramen-noodle-recipes-1548/
...and ramen will be 10 bucks a package.
double post
Breaking News: Printing huge sums of money isn't working*
* Note: It was never meant to, it was just to allow more transfer of wealth from the many to the few and to enslave that suckers that work for the man some more, and their unborn children too.
They can print as much as they want, doesnt matter, even France and Mexico now refuse to take the dollar. All of it meant to totaly bust out america, while the sheeples are mesmerized looking at stocks go up.
Who cares? What is in the playbook for today? Dow up +20, +50, +120+?
Depends on how much the dollar goes down, In Zimbabwe during their Bernank Lite money printing venture stocks would commonly rise 250% daily.
...and the US Dollar is surging. Why is this good news?
Because it's news, and well, you know...
Better question is why does the market go up with the dollar now?
Dollar bulls probably believe Ben has come to his senses now and will do something about rates.
And Monkey watch hopefully says " Dollar strengthens on hotter than expected CPI".
Yeah - right - it would IF the Fed had ANY credibility. If folks thought they would actually DO something about it - other than wag their chins.
'Dollar strength'...even Mexico refuses to take the worthless FRN.
SheepDog, send the link plz.
So what the hell are the gringos in Cancun and Cozumel paying with? Oh, it's nearly spring break so Tits and Ass.
Don't forget the mysterious 500K "adjustment" that might show up as a revision in June. Has anyone else noticed that John Williams of SGS hasn't been given any airtime lately? They can't handle the truth.
No-one with even a slightly critical outlook is given any airtime these days. Fox News features Peter Schiff occasionally, and Marc Faber gets the odd appearance, but that's pretty much it. Even morons who, as Tyler pointed out the other day, "predicts" the market ahead by running a ruler on a chart, gets featured on prime time CNBC. One wonders when Rick Santelli leaves CNBC to "spend more time with his family".
There's a plethora of bears on the Alex Jones show, however. Too bad he keeps interrupting guests.
ummm -what exactly is the Dollar surging against?
It is not surging... just falling slower than the others.
Earning dropped too (-0.1%) due to a slight decrease in workweek coupled with increase in CPI. This is it kids...the new normal has arrived.
Not so good for Ben. I also notice there has been little reporting of the recent bad news for Greece which is in the following analysis given as a warning for the UK and maybe the US too.
I am sure some highly paid person will figure out how to spin this into good news.
Don't worry, be happy, Dancing with the Idol Talent , or some other mindless crap will be on T.V.
Note to any one who reloads ammo, bullet and brass prices are going up. Check out the note on Cabelas web site.
http://www.cabelas.com/browse.cmd?categoryId=107821080&WTz_l=SBC%3Bcat104792580%3Bcat104761080
Now this is economic news that directly affects my long on lead/brass/primer/powder strategy.
Good catch, thanks for that. Ive been wondering when this would hit. Midway has had a good price on 150 grain .30 cal FMJ's, looks like its time to grab a couple thousand
I tip my camo hat to you sir.
No problem. When I had to pay $65 for a box of 20 .300 RUM, figured it was time to start reloading again. I get a lot of my stuff from Natchez Shooting Supply. Need to order a new case trimmer. Bottle neck brass stretches a lot real quick like.
*Note: This is not a directly economic issue, but under the premise that some may have use for this information from the 2nd Amendment crowd regarding use of potentially scarce resources in a tough situation I am proceeding.*
Question on that Ultra Mag youre shootin'. Im a .30-06 kinda guy and part of what has kept me from going to the Win Mag/Ultra Mag rounds is powder usage. Your rifle at 200 yards is what Im shooting right at the muzzle and there is alot to say for this as the ballistics for that cartridge are just insane, but to me the powder usage gets pretty crazy on that beast. I like it on paper, but when I can almost make 2 .30-06 for one of those I havent been able to convince myself to take the plunge.
What powder type and charge are you using, and what sort of rig? Also, what does your shoulder look like after a day at the range? (lol) Im guessing you can cut your cost by about half on reloads, what kind of case life do you get?
As to powder usage, I would have to look at my notes, as I have been reloading a lot of different calibers as of late. I have the Remington Sendero based around the 700 action, bedded in a H-S kevlar/carbon stock, free-floating barrel. The recoil is quite tame with a D&E muzzle brake, plus it weighs 12 pounds, but it will part your buddys hair from the back blast. Shooting 200 gr. Accu-bond at close to 3200 fps MV. I call it "The no track 'em gun" as a well placed shot on an elk or bear will buckle them in their tracks out to 500 yrds.
When I shoot out this barrel, I will go with a Lilja or Boots Obermeyer made one.
As to case life, about 6-7 reloads. They last a bit longer if you anneal the shoulder/neck area. Decap the primer, place brass in water up towards the shoulder, and use a propane torch to heat them up, then knock them over. Brass acts the opposite of steel as to hardening.
Ah, a westerner. Im in the land of somewhat scrawny southeastern whitetail (very hunter heavy area) and for me it would be for punching paper at distance and in case of an of course entirely theoretical zombie apocalypse where the zombies have kevlar with plates, or starving city zombies which have depleted their own resources venture out of their hellholes and need killing at 1000 yards instead of my current reliable limit of about 700. As the local good ol' boys dont let many deer get big Im afraid that shoulder cannon of yours would leave me with little meat in a practical hunting situation outside of a big boar that wont be good eating anyhow.
Thanks for the info sir!
Hopefully an exchange amongst the two subspecies of Redneckus Americanus wasnt too far off base for the ZH "OMG that isnt finance" crowd. I submit that in time of difficulty powder and bullets are in fact highly valuble commodities in case any urbanites are aggravated by not discussing the ever decreasing value of paper slips and its almost certainly catastrophic consequences.
Redneckus Americanus . LOL, I resemble that remark! Good talking to you. If you want to continue this e-mail me flemingjamess@hotmail.com
hunter/reloader/soon to be gunsmith
keep your powder dry
Hey, I like that!
New prime time reality TV; get the unemployed involved:
"Dancing with the American Idle"
The Ministry of the Truth is going to have a harder time explaining away the breakdown in correlation with reality....
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/
The currency markets are actually Laughing at Bernanke. Dollar plunging. High inflation NO GOOD in a regime of permanent zero rates. Thats easy.
Sorry Grandma - that you earn ZERO on your savings account. Dats da way the thugs at the Fed want it. You see inflation is running at a 5% annualized rate ( according to the government). But grandma gets Zero interest . So that JPM et al can make mo monnay. Got it?
The Fed will dump employment as a mandate shortly. The unemployed will rally in the square. The government (owned by the Fed) will execute the unemployed while they sleep in the square. Problem solved and blood pudding will appear as a new special on the food stamp menu.
Blood pudding? I was promised soylent green! Will these hedonic adjustments never cease!
Bernie is getting a bit worried:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-17/fed-tells-banks-to-stress-test-capital-for-recession-with-11-unemployment.html
Katy, bar the door...
I wanna new drug.
With food stamps, got to eat at home.
Oh ofcourse you are all aware that when Bennie decides to "raise rates", the way he plans to do it is by PAYING the freaking banks increasing amounts of interest on the reserves. Now will the banks pay grandma the same rate? Why? Its a free country aint it?
NQ
Was that the top?
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0
from the sea we came. back to the sea we go. do not head for the hills.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJQQWbr4cXM
"food at home" as opposed to "food at dumpster"?
No idea what they mean by 'food at home'...are they pricing in food stockpilers in the data now?
food at home as opposed to eating out. the poor have been getting better bang for their buck with fast food, you get the calories, its filling, requires no preparation time. a pound of broccoli $2, a basic hamburger at most places $1 or 2??
$5 KFC BUCKETS BITCHEZZZ
This isn't inflation. It is just increases in the cost of living. Don't you understand?!
don't worry we know what we are doing. Bernank "Can, someone in IT get up here! I need a larger box to put more zeros into the printing order"
Its the 'wealth effect', enjoy!!
I am delusional because of the stress I am under when I look at my monthly grocery bill. A quart of milk costs nearly $4; it cost $2.40 2 years ago: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/10-reasons-i-am-delusional-not-the-market
I agree with you EXCEPT for shorting the market. Put options, perhaps, but during the Weimar Republic, the stock markets set new highs every day, largely to the astonishment of the populace.
If we are upgrading from 2% inflation to ??%, stocks would no doubt ramp up as a result.
Dairy Glen Milk, 1 gallon - $2.79
Dont drink processed milk, its bad for you.
haha, damn nyc area and their damn expensive grocery bills!!
@Escape Key, you are right though. not everyone here is bearish at our firm: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/im-bullish-until-i-see-a-real-battle
Localized demand is a bitch (that price is from the SF Bay Area, BTW)...at least you don't have to physically fight anyone for your moloko....yet.
Organic 1 Gallon - $6.59 (+$0.02/oz....fucking hippies!)
how much to actually buy a goat?
Personally, I'd be more inclined to complain about the quality rather than the price. My wife and I found the milk simply undrinkable in the U.S. It was then that we started drinking organic milk, despite it being about double the price.
I think one of the biggest mistakes Americans make is to think that food should be cheap. Affordable, yes. Cheap, no.
Or you could have water and STFU.
NEEDLESS to say... BTFD!~
But Goebbles govt media inc. keeps telling me everything is getting better!
Gallup is reporting that the job picture isn't too pretty of late, so it must be the fault of snow, or rain, or ice, or wind, or tides, or something unexpected:
Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.0% in mid-February -- up from 9.8% at the end of January -- while the broader underemployment rate surged to 19.6% from 18.9% at the end of January.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/146147/Gallup-Finds-Unemployment-Mid-February.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=Economy%20-%20Underemployment%20-%20Unemployment
Well as of today Carl Jr's Big Burger is 1.50, as opposed to 1.00. Nice 50 percent inflation for the same burger from a couple of days ago. Thanks Ben Kenobi, your force put is awesome!
Time to re-bury that old fossil.