Initial Claims Up 410K On Expectations Of 400K, CPI Up 0.4% On Expectations Of 0.3%, "Food At Home" Index Largest Increase Since 2008
Initial claims jump 410K in the last week, on expectations of 400k, confirming last week's upwardly revised 385K print was "snow" derived. On the inflationary front, CPI jumped 0.4%, higher than expectations of 0.3%, previous 0.5%. The irrelevant CPI ex food and energy was up 0.2%, higher than consensus and the prior print of 0.1%. Food prices increased by 0.5%, and "The food at home index increased 0.7 percent, the largest increase since 2008."
From the CPI release:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Increases in indexes for energy commodities and for food accounted for over two thirds of the all items increase. The indexes for gasoline and fuel oil both increased in January, continuing their recent strong upward trend. The index for food at home posted its largest increase in over two years with all six major grocery store food group indexes rising.
The index for all items less food and energy also rose in January. The indexes for apparel, shelter, airline fares, and recreation all posted increases. In contrast, the indexes for new vehicles and for used cars and trucks declined in January.
Focusing on food and energy:
The food index rose 0.5 percent in January. The food at home index increased 0.7 percent, the largest increase since 2008. All six major grocery store food groups posted increases. The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased the most, rising 1.5 percent, with the indexes for carbonated drinks and coffee both rising sharply. The fruits and vegetables index increased 1.3 percent with the index for fresh vegetables up 2.1 percent. The indexes for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs and for cereals and bakery products increased 0.9 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively. The indexes for dairy and related products and for other food at home posted slight increases.
Over the past 12 months, the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs has risen 6.2 percent with the other grocery store food group indexes posting smaller increases. The index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in January and has risen 1.5 percent over the past 12 months.
The energy index continued its recent string of increases, rising 2.1 percent in January. The gasoline index rose 3.5 percent and has increased seven months in a row. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 3.8 percent in January.) The index for household energy declined in January, falling 0.2 percent. A 6.8 percent increase in the index for fuel oil was more than offset by a 1.2 percent decrease in the natural gas index and a 0.5 percent decline in the electricity index. The indexes for gasoline and fuel oil have risen significantly over the last 12 months, but the index for natural gas has declined 6.4 percent.
And the B(L)S update:
In the week ending Feb. 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 410,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 385,000. The 4-week moving average was 417,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average of 416,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent for the week ending Feb. 5, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.1 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb.5 was 3,911,000, an increase of 1,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,910,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,941,500, an increase of 3,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,938,000.
Those on EUCs declined by 127K in the week ended January 29 to 3,629,604, while those on Extended Benefits increased by 42k to 873,002.
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