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Initial Claims At 421K, In Line With Expectations As Prior Upward Adjustment Hits 86% Of Total
As we expected, last week's jobless claims number of 436k was upwardly revised pretty much as expected. The consensus for this week was 425k, and because a statistically meaningless 4k people less were fired the market spikes up. Of course, next week, the revision will take the number above 425k, meaning it was actually a miss, but who cares: computers continue to read just headlines and see what they like. Continuing claims came 4086k on expectations of 4237k, as the prior was also revised upward. Just under 400k people dropped off EUC and Extended Claims in the week ended Nov 20 as the 99-week cliff issue becomes ever more pronounced: these are the people who have anniversaried 2 years of claims and roll off with no further welfare state recourse. And most importantly, the Seasonally unadjusted number exploded by a near record 169k, and the NSA unemployment rate jumped from 2.9% to 3.3% in one week!
In other data manipulation news, the BLS data subversion index came in as expected: 87% of initial claims announcements have been revised upward, and a whopping 96% of continuing claims. The only question we have is whether the same computers that trade the market are the same that are used to fudge the data, or is Intel profiting from two sets of 80286 purchases by the fudge monkeys at the BLS.
h/t John Lohman
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Huge spike in NSA claims...massive.
+169,085 to 582,007
611,000 fell off long term as the funding for the 99ers expired. Just not good report.
Who reads the report, anymore? It's all about the headlines now! And apparently they are fabulous!!! [not, but who cares?]
You're right, I checked the report. That is a huge jump.
Many companies start dumping employees at end of year.
Market doesn't care, long as there's tax breaks for rich and more free welfare from the fed to prop the market.
Every time I sphere someone say unemployed are milking the system I remind them it's nothing compared to the printing , bonuses and theft the fed and rich get every day.
To be honest either situation doesn't matter at this point. We are so far down the rabbit hole that when the flood waters come all will drown....and the system with it (which will be a positive, but an extremely painful event).
The Ministry of Truth is going to have to put in a little overtime on this one.
The Munisters of Truth are already reaching for the uber sized eraser for the changes sure to follow next week.... Wash, rinse, repeat....
Eh. If markets don't care about last weeks jump in claims and horrible jobs report why care about this?
Of course they cherry pick bte! Fuck ya, run that es again.
Happy Hanukkah!
the chirstmas layoffs are already starting
Those green and blue segments will eventually disappear from view as they get smaller and smaller with more data you collect!
96%. Now THAT's statistical significance. lol.
Weekly crisis over, now drive TBT below 37, please.
The U.S. and other western countries now have propoganda machines in place that old soviet and 'communist' countries could only dream of.
As a child the U.S. was the only place i really wanted to visit. Now, unfortunately, it's one of the least. The decline has been fast and furious, but still the citizens lay back and do nothing.
It's called the American dream because you have to be asleep to believe it.
Where does the rise in the use of food stamps figure into the unemployment data? Reported yesterday, 43 million US citizens collected food stamps last month, up 1.2% from the prior month and 16.2% higher than the same time a year ago, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Nationwide 14% of the population relied on food stamps as of September but in some states the percentage was much higher. In Washington, D.C., Mississippi and Tennessee – the states with the largest share of citizens receiving benefits – more than a fifth of the population in each was collecting food stamps.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/12/08/food-stamp-rolls-continue-to-r...
I'm confident that arkansas will be overburdened by mississippi, tennessee, louisiana, and missouri refugees before much longer... not that we dont have our fair share of problems, but there are quite a few jobs in the northeast portion available atm and soon to come online... we're starting to feel the pain of the influx though... going on ~3-5 years.
So the market is up what, 17-18% over the last few months on continuing job losses of 420,000 to 450,000 per week. What happens when we start actually seeing real hiring again? Do we take out the 2007 highs? Really? This all seems plainly stupid.
No need to worry about that - still about 12yrs away from real hiring, if ever. I can't wait to see how much the market spikes when the millions that fell off reapply now that nObama got down on his knees.
Can Wikileaks take down the Fed?
Looking at a few charts of initial/continuing jobless claims it's clear that both continue to trend down from the '09 highs . I'm wondering though how much of this trend can be attributed to those who have found part time employment ?
Here in Ireland part time workers can apply for a a reduced version of jobless benefits . Could someone clarify if there is a similar system in the US ?
one wonders if some aspect of the seasonal adjustment was adjusted as with the NFP last month. change the assumptions in the data and ... well ... the fiction continues
*FITCH: EURO ZONE CREDIT FUNDAMENTALS BETTER THAN MARKETS SHOW
HAHAHAHAHAHHAA
Long Zombie Banks and I'm All In ! BooYah !
161,000 seasonally adjusted out of the headline number and the market continues its state of denial. When reality based on "real figures" work their way into the Stock Market carnival, the clowns will be wearing their sad face.
Great job as always Zero Hedge. For the sake of all grandchildren, thank you! Vigilant Grandpa