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Initial Claims 434K On Expectations Of 455K, Previous Print Revised As Expected Higher To 455K
Since the current week claims number is irrelevant and will be adjusted higher next week, we first point out last week's 27 or so consecutive revision, which was pushed higher from 452K to 455K. This also brings the total YTD prior revision at 34 up and 6 down. The current week number of 434K was below expectations of 455K. Look for the next week's revision to meet or beat the actual expectation but who will care then. In the meantime, with the last number before QE2 announcement, we expect the Primary Dealers to immediately tell the Fed no more POMOs are needed. And as an aside, continuing claims were revised from 4441K to 4478K. This is 40 up revisions, and 2 down.
Probably the most important data from an economic perspective is that 400k people dropped from EUCs and extended claims.
The chart below tells the complete revision picture:
h/t John Lohman
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Odd, it's almost like everyone knew this number at 7:50 this morning.
it was 07:49:59, thank you very much.
Aaaah, no, everyone knew long time ago.
What did you expect the LAST initial claims report to be like BEFORE the midterms?
which gubmint agency punishes those who leak report data?
The Chief WH Advisor to the POTUS..........
and this week the sun has risen five times.
odds are about the same that number might be revised upward later too.
rally!... and then
http://scrapetv.com/News/News%20Pages/Entertainment/Images/car-crash.jpg
Look at the size of that shaft.
Initial Claims? Please.. Thats so 80s ( Sarcasm on).
And like fish taking the bait, the immediate MarketWatch headline is.......
Surprised?
What's the rationale for the dollar to weaken on lower initial claims? Seems that would be good news for the dollar?
I believe the smell of POMO is in the air and what better way to have a surge in prices across the board than everyone selling the dollar.
We have all become currency traders, regardless of whether we're aware of it or not.
Yeah -- trading currency for gold.
So, who is really surpised that the jobs number before the election beat expectation? Really, is anyone surpirsed by this? I know everyone here knew the numbers beat before the close yesterday. Let us all make guesses at what the revised number will be next week. I am looking at the revision for this week to actually be 462k.
454k
Since July, the most the BLS has dicked with the number is 6K, but let's say since the elections are next week and after Tuesday it won't matter, the BLS wacked in a planned adjustment of 12K, double that previous max of 6K, so 434K plus 12K is 446K.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis Q3 GDP estimate (lie) comes out tomorrow. My pre-election guess is Q3 GDP +1.25%, which will be revised several times after the elections, QE2 announcement, etc... eventually (years from now) will be 0-.25%. If the estimate were to somehow come in under +1%, I would be surprised and so would the market.
the number could have come in at 600K it would have made no difference. stocks are going much higher, get used to it. go with the flow or get crushed trying to fight it.
"Oceania was at war with Eastasia : Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia. A large part of the political literature of five years was now completely obsolete. Reports and records of all kinds, newspapers, books, pamphlets, films, sound-tracks, photographs - all had to be rectified at lightning speed. Although no directive was ever issued, it was known that the chiefs of the Department intended that within one week no reference to the war with Eurasia, or the alliance with Eastasia, should remain in existence anywhere. The work was overwhelming, all the more so because the processes that it involved could not be called by their true names. Everyone in the Records Department worked eighteen hours in the twenty-four, with two three-hour snatches of sleep. Mattresses were brought up from the cellars and pitched all over the corridors: meals consisted of sandwiches and Victory Coffee wheeled round on trolleys by attendants from the canteen. Each time that Winston broke off for one of his spells of sleep he tried to leave his desk clear of work, and each time that he crawled back sticky-eyed and aching, it was to find that another shower of paper cylinders had covered the desk like a snowdrift, halfburying the speakwrite and overflowing on to the floor, so that the first job was always to stack them into a neat enough pile to give him room to work. What was worst of all was that the work was by no means purely mechanical. Often it was enough merely to substitute one name for another, but any detailed report of events demanded care and imagination. Even the geographical knowledge that one needed in transferring the war from one part of the world to another was considerable."
http://www.liferesearchuniversal.com/1984-17.html
http://www.newspeakdictionary.com/ns-dict.html
Although no directive was ever issued, it was known that the chiefs of the Department intended that within one week no reference to the war with Eurasia, or the alliance with Eastasia, should remain in existence anywhere.
Yet, somewhere deep in the collective unconscious, we know.
What would George Orwell think that his book predicted 60 years in advance what our gubimint is actually doing? He would turn over in his grave or maybe he was just more prophetic than the rest of us.
At some point these claims will have to decrease simply because no one else remaining can resonably be fired. Once that inflection point is reached then we would be looking for some improvement in the unemployment rate. Frankly I think much more reducing of federal and state payrolls needs to happen before we can claim victory in that arena.
Initial claims don't mean much at this point. I look at continuing claims and the total unemployed and under employed (U6) as a better gauge.
The growing number of 99+ week people who are no longer collecting unemployment benefits, but are still unemployed. These are the numbers that are very worrisome.
Someone please post how Uncle Ben can justify a massive QEII announcement on Nov 3 now?
Look for $250 billion over the next three months giving the illusion of a trillion over the year.
And then sit back and watch the market correct.........
LOL, if you think Benny will disappoint the market, you're dead wrong. $1Trillion at a minimum !
QE2 is out of Ben's hands now. It is up to JPM et. al. to make the decision.
And QE3, 4, 5, 6 . . .
Me thinks this is how they get around charges of secret meetings and phone calls.
And now we know exactly who owns the global financial world fronted by the Fed. Eighteen corporations.
1. Apple
2. McDonalds
3. Google
4. Genco Pura Olive Oil Corporation
...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/paralyzed-fed-defers-decision-monetary-...
BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Banc of America Securities LLC
Barclays Capital Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
Jefferies & Company, Inc.
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
Nomura Securities International, Inc.
RBC Capital Markets Corporation
RBS Securities Inc.
UBS Securities LLC.
Bingo! We now live under BANKSTER RULE.
I think we are underestimating the impact of mid-term elections on employment. With $3.7 billion (up 30% since last mid-term elections) being spent, the spending run rate for September and October is $1 billion per month or $12 billion annualized. Cities and municipalities are also staffing up ahead of the elections. If I am right, this is temporary and will vanish in the November data.
The SA number came down because of the seasonal adjustments. The seasonals have been messed up to a significant degree this month because of the collapse in the labor market beginning in October 2008. For this particular week, from the second week to the third week of October 2008 and 2009, there was a big bump up in NSA claims (about 35k) which we didn't get this year, just an increase of 14k NSA claims. But this bump up in the third week of October didn't happen in 2007, 2006, or 2005; the numbers were flat each of those years. So right now we're just seeing the seasonals being affected by the 2008 and 2009 numbers. To get the best gauge of the data, it's probably best just to watch the 4 week moving average.
obama newswires (e.g. AP etc) report this as a glowing acheivement; no mention of revisions; LOL further proof of the summer of recovery
MSM = fraud
We are already in "Orwell's" world. Data useless moving forward. Agenda driven garbage.
All the American people do is sit back and do nothing while their wealth gets stolen out from under them. Where is the revolt leadership? Someone get someone to take charge and get 10 million people on Capital Hill and get these crooks out of here. Bernanke and Geithner are worse than Al-Qaida to us. We don't need to worry about terrorists overseas, we have them right in our own back yard, ruining our country day to day, yet no one seems to care.
They keep stating on BB radio that the continuing claims fell as well?!?
Well... it could be worse.
The unemployment numbers should begin to decline despite any actual hiring. The headline number is all the gov't cares about to extend and pretend that all is well in the USA. Initial claims should draw down as corporations and gov't are cut to the bone on staffing (which is positively spun as productivity). Continuing claims will decrease as the jobless are pushed through the pipeline of graduating from a member of the official unemployment statistics to the 99er class. We will see sub 8% headline numbers in 2011 all the while U-6 will remain above 17% and SGS numbers will stay over 22%.
where can I get the actual data revisions to cerate my own chart. I got some asshat here at work who refuses to believe anything they find on ZeroHedge. You should heare what this jackA$$ says about you guys
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