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Initial Claims: 474K - Bring Out QE3
And scene: jobless claims explode to 474K, beyond the worst economist expectation, far above consensus of 410K, and well above the previous (upward revised of course) number of 431K. This is the worst claims number since Aigist 2010. Game over for the US "recovery."
Welcome to the US Recovery:
Those collecting EUC and Extended Claims continue dropping of the 99-week roster, with 48K no longer collecting weekly government paychecks.
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Damn!
Highlights
The government cites special factors behind a 43,000 surge in initial jobless claims. The biggest factor is an adjustment timing for a spring break in New York state
http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=446478&cust=anynon...
No mention of tornados/floods?????
and it's GWB's fault
I don't need a job... I need a spring vacation!
Or a drink.
Anomalies joins transitory as the new cover terms for bad news.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-05/jobless-claims-in-u-s-unexpectedly-jump-due-to-special-factors.html
Now you know why OBL had to die THIS week. A lot of bad news is coming, and the more distracted the plebes, the better.
lol
here here, well put.
here here, well put.
Yup. It was a effort to rally the American spirit just before the debt bomb drops on them...
That's what Obama's press conference was about: "we're America and can do anything!"
Holy Shite - green shoots are busting out.
Can you say Timber. Go any silver or gold you can get, borrow, steal or rob cause the wind cometh before the storm (TD I was right - 13 weekers never lie).
That said they have flown back the pumps from Fukushima because it is judged a situation of Major meltdown in containment.
Micky D's showed the way with near a million for 63k. Suck on those numbers bitches cause it is your reality.
Hey, look at the bright side.....if McDonalds hadn't done all that hiring, the number would have been over 500K. Wouldn't that be considered a green shoot??
Well, thinking about it ? your dead fucking right.
That would have made the legs tremble. Good old Mickey D saving America one lousy job at a time.
I want to express my admiration of your writing skill and ability to make readers read from the beginning to the end. I would like to read newer posts and to share my thoughts with you. oilseed expeller
You a**holes, Fed!!
You a**holes, Fed!!
At this point I see no reason to mask the word asshole.
Agreed. Ass_Wholes
ass whores
You hsould be thanking them for a soon to be 13,000 DOW. This is bullshit......I mean bullish.
The Rally Monkey should appear on this news.
Golden.
+1 Big time lulz.
Gold behaving extremely well
does that mean my silver will be on the rise again :(
Yes it does. Once this ridiculous 'Deflation trade' idea that appeared this week has run its course in a day or two, and traders move back to facing the obvious reality of QE to infinity and eventual hyperinflation.
Not if the CFTC can't do it's job....or rather...does it's job per tungstenman.
tungsten is useless now. muhahaha.... didn't you know conventional lightbulbs are about to be illegal?
Well tungsten makes good fishin' weights still.
Black market light bulbs = free enterprise.
That all depends how hard "they" work to suppress it. Margin rates are a bitch.
Buy physical and wait it out.
"Hyperinflation is preposterous"
Mish Shedlock
"Mish Shedlock is preposterous"
- Hyperinflation
+1. Did anyone else picture a character called Hyperinflation saying that because I did.
Anthropomorphism at its finest :-)
Didnt Krugman say 7 trillion needed? What could possibly go wrong.
What's in a number anyways
Nothing.
What's in a Krugman statement?
Nothing.
Synergy!!
Mish doesn't shop at Walmart.
......he has "people".
I know where he lives. He probably does shop at Walmart.
They have 2 options.
1. Quit the margins increases and let the price rise until overage Joe can't buy it anymore so the industry still has enough to function and demand to level.
2. Make it so cheap that inventories all over will be depleted in the next 6 months which could cause a catastrophic domino effect in the derivative market.
2 options, both lead to Armageddon.
There is a 3th option but that would included every silver investor to dump their silver back to the melters and industry demand to go down, but I don't really call it a option. The problem with the investor silver is that once it's put in circulation it takes a very long time before it returns if ever.
In 100 years, there will still be enough people who inherit silver from people who are buying it now.
Number one is what usually would happen, but can't because the dumb fucks have such a huge short position.
Short positions go to zero when a currency dies, ie. the US Dollar.
To own Gold and Silver in Weimar America...is King!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuMQjKiaDTg
I'd say the option that is much more likely is to maintain the staus quo where we will see margin requirements increase everytime silver reaches a certain point until we reach the point that silver cannot be margined at all and must be bought for cash.
More likely is that the exchanges crash well beofre then as these staged increases only prove that they are ponzi schemes and are trying to hide that fact by manipulating the price of the underlying.
That can work for a while but not forever.
BTFD.
wtf is the problem with removing margin from commodities exchanges?
They SHOULD do this. Exchanges should return to being places where real sellers and buyers trade, instead of a place where speculators try to manipulate and make money off of doing nothing.
Imagine if the grocery store or farmers market worked like CME...you'd have some spec trying to lever buy up all the spaghetti and make the prices go up up up when he has no intention of ever taking delivery of the stuff. Fuck speculation in real assets. Shorts should have real metal and longs should be interested in buying real metal.
Agree with your sentiment 100%, but what you are talking about is a far cry from what's happening now. What we have now is a sham of a paper market, and the margin increases are just the tugs on the strings of the marionette.
Once we opened the door for fractional reserve metal exchanges, the matter of margins seems like a pimple on a fat guy's ass.
Exactly. A proper functioning exchange wouldn't have 2 hands in the cookie jar front running every policy change.
The CME is a total fraud. The "speculators" are only those with deep pockets that can smell blood. The CME and Morgue has brought this on themselves 100%.
Fuck speculation in real assets.
hear hear
especially the lifeblood of nations, oil
It should. Yes.
But now the paper is priced at 26 times the actual spot price!
I would qualify that as "fuck LEVERAGED speculation in hard assets".
If they want to get a loan from some fool (not the exchange) to speculate, more power to them. Allowing any moron who can get into the exchange access to that much leverage is foolish at best.
Speculators ensure that there is supply. If there were no speculators holding back consumption of food, oil, or silver, there would be times when those things were not available at ANY price, as production always has a lag time. Speculators can fill that void. But when they are allowed to have leverage, and they all have the exact same amount of leverage, then they can all be flushed out at the same time, creating wild price swings. If they had to secure their own financing, they would get flushed out at different times.
I doubt that speculators serve any legitimate purpose whatsoever. They create transfer payments among themselves and profits for the exchanges upon which they trade. Hence the creation of the great Myth of Liquidity.
It is said that producers need to hedge via speculation in futures markets to protect themselves from price swings between the time they decide to produce and the time it takes to get produced goods to market.
While I agree it might be cheaper to hedge via a derivative security, the alternative might be to keep an excess supply in storage, or to just keep enough cash on hand to stay in business if prices drop unexpectedly.
All market makers are simply like the hardware stores during the gold rush. The miners mostly died penniless, while the hardware stores skimmed money off the mining process. It greatly enriched the hardware store owners to create the great myth of the Gold Rush.
It has greatly enriched all exchanges and brokerages to somehow make everybody believe they can make a forturne daytrading securities and commodities of any sort.
It is not so much a "belief" that money can be made by trading, it is becoming one of the only options for trying to make money. Outside working on your career, there are not many places to make a decent return right now. Conservative invesments like CDs or bonds are paying paltry sums. The FED has destroyed traditional savings. I trade a bit now and get a better return.
Yes, please. All of that, ditto.
CME trying to scare out levereged longs right? So those longs don't continually roll their delivery calls to cash and back into longs?
All I know is today my birthday and tomorrow my $10K will go a long ways to gather me way more silver than I thought I would be able to purchase back when I liquidated some paper asset bullshit. Happy birthday to me mother fuckers. Happy birthday to me.
Hey, happy birthday.
Thanks.
Now the fear of a silver spike has been replaced by the fear of revolution
phew thank god
DC crowd revamping cold war nuclear shelters with stocks to last for 2 year war
Link?
All part of the plan. The masses will be screaming for more QE soon. Ben will, of course, oblige.
will that be while they are screaming about paying over $5 a gallon for gas? Cause it outght to make a run there in no time with the way things are going.
Probably. The masses aren't terribly bright, or clued up about cause and effect. They'll just react to the TV which is telling them that markets are crashing, jobs are vanishing and unless more QE is forthcoming right away, a plague of locusts is forecast to descend upon them and consume all their cheez doodles. The possibility of major reality TV shows having to be canceled in the absence of more QE may also be raised.
Ohhh...NO they cannot i repeat they cannot cancel Dancing with the Stars or the Apprentice....
I WANT and I DESERVE just because...
Dude.......American idle is the best reality show.
.....besides this.
Here is the best pseudo reality show from a previous post (priceless!) : by Village Idiot
We all need a laugh - and sorry for the heist.
Dr. Strangelove: Sir! I have a plan!
[standing up from his wheelchair]
Dr. Strangelove: Mein Führer! I can walk!
[discussing the Doomsday machine]
President Merkin Muffley: How is it possible for this thing to be triggered automatically and at the same time impossible to untrigger?
Dr. Strangelove: Mr. President, it is not only possible, it is essential. That is the whole idea of this machine, you know. Deterrence is the art of producing in the mind of the enemy... the FEAR to attack. And so, because of the automated and irrevocable decision-making process which rules out human meddling, the Doomsday machine is terrifying and simple to understand... and completely credible and convincing.
[Strangelove's plan for post-nuclear war survival involves living underground with a 10:1 female-to-male ratio]
General "Buck" Turgidson: Doctor, you mentioned the ratio of ten women to each man. Now, wouldn't that necessitate the abandonment of the so-called monogamous sexual relationship, I mean, as far as men were concerned?
Dr. Strangelove: Regrettably, yes. But it is, you know, a sacrifice required for the future of the human race. I hasten to add that since each man will be required to do prodigious... service along these lines, the women will have to be selected for their sexual characteristics which will have to be of a highly stimulating nature.
Ambassador de Sadesky: I must confess, you have an astonishingly good idea there, Doctor.
Dr. Strangelove: Of course, the whole point of a Doomsday Machine is lost, if you *keep* it a *secret*! Why didn't you tell the world, EH?
Ambassador de Sadesky: It was to be announced at the Party Congress on Monday. As you know, the Premier loves surprises.
President Merkin Muffley: You mean people could actually stay down there for a hundred years?
Dr. Strangelove: It would not be difficult, Mein Führer. Nuclear reactors could - heh, I'm sorry, Mr. President - nuclear reactors could provide power almost indefinitely.
are screaming about paying over $5 a gallon for gas?
The classic response is price controls. This was tried in the 1930s (in reverse, price supports) and all thru history. It does not work but buys time for the politicians.
Soon those in power will abdicate responsibility and you and I will be left to clean up the mess. After they clean us out of course.
sschu
South Carolina has a bill just introduced to 'cap-off' the price of gasoline
It's cumming folks, brace yourselves
http://www.abcnews4.com/story/14525346/bill-would-cap-gas-prices-in-sout...
Good, if they cap the price in SC then no one will sell it for a loss there. This will make more supply available outside of SC which should make it slightly cheaper for me. /sarc off
What an idiot. Someone should organize a field trip to Venezuela to see how price caps lead to empty store shelves. Maybe they could teach econ 101 on the plane ride down there too.
Don't forget Nixon used price controls also.
It took less than 3 minutes for the words "QE 3" to be uttered over at the BlowHorn [CNBC].
Whores sho'nuff do love their whorin'!
QE-3 : the new "doomsday machine"...
3 minutes - CNBC - QE 3 - what no mention of a lousy $16 trillion debt ceiling to be climbed over. Fuck me running up K2, in the Himalayas, naked and bare foot while dragging a Vegas, size 16 whore by your dick would be easier going.
Don't hold anything back, get it all out.
When more of America is sucking from the teet, why oh why would they ever vote for austerity? If you want your office: dole it out. 51% of America now recieves more from Uncle Sam than they give him. And that's the voting majority....
and now they'll blame EASTER!
my English sucks to, BUT EVEN I KNOW HOW TO SPELL TITS!
How do you get around the internet when you can't spell Tits?
Girls have tits
Sheep, cows and sheeple suck on teets.
so do belgians...
Who are these "belgians" of whom you speak? I've heard of the Flemish from the southernmost portion of Holland and the Walloons from the northernmost part of France. Wasn't there once a country called "Belgium" made up of a portion of both Holland and France? That was the place that couldn't form any kind of national government and disintegrated, wasn't it?
teats - wiki
In its most general form, a nipple is a structure from which a fluid emanates. More specifically, it is the projection on the breasts or udder of a mammal by which breast milk is delivered to a mother's young. In this sense, it is often called a teat, especially when referring to non-humans, ...
Eventually, all the debt will need to be repaid or repudiated. If paid, then by whom and when?
Can i please ask a sane question:
QE1 didn't create jobs.
QE2 didn't create jobs.
So, Ben's going to do QE3?
Anyone else see the same problem i see?
"the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result"
I thought employment was going to be removed as an objective for the Fed? Seeing as they haven't been all that successful and all. Like any good performance management system, if you can't meet the goals, change the targets, or remove the metric. Winning!
QE1 saved big banks and banking jobs.
QE2 saved big banks and banking jobs.
QE3 will save big banks and banking jobs.
Ben Bernanke works for a bank cartel. What do you think he is going to do?
HH - as usual - great assessment - +100
Hang-on people, this needs a little more accuracy.
Deregulation - For the Banks
Bail-Outs - For the Banks
Stimulus - For the Banks
TARP - For the Banks
ZIRP - For the Banks
QE1.0 - For the Banks
QE1.5 (AKA QE-Lite) - For the Banks
QE2.0 - For the Banks
Zero accountability - For the Banks
I think there's something here, but I can't quite put my finger on it...
To paraphrase Obama, "QE was instituted to save or create 3 to 4 million bonuses."
Zero Hedge - Fuck the Banks
+1 Fed's goal is more bank for the buck.
QE is about masking the total insolvency of the entire financial system. It has nothing whatsoever to do with jobs.
Viewed in that light, it has been pretty successful so far, wouldn't you say?
@Quintus / Tyler
I nominate this pithy analysis for a sticky on the masthead. Beautifully sums up Benron's plot.
It's absolutely correct.
I have been maintaining this since I got here and before I was on ZH I was shouting the same stuff on douchinger's TF.
The financial system is a compounding animal requiring additional borrowing to grow geometrically from today's outstanding borrowing, or else it collapses.
The debtmoney system is in a state of constant effective default in that at any given point, more claims on money exist than there is money to satisfy. This is by virtue of existing monies being outstanding principal but there also being interest owed in the future for which money has not yet been created.
So at any point, claims exist of Z1 + iZ1 and only Z1 debtmoney exists. Either the future holds borrowing of the additional iZ1 or else iZ1 and Z1 begin to compete for the money supply, all while the iZ1 obligation continues to compound exponentially. It's grow credit or collapse.
Outstanding post, very succinct, thank you!
sschu
I was shouting the same stuff on douchinger's TF.
careful or you'll wind up being popular over here despite your pm bashing if you keep using these ZH buzzwords
I don't bash PMs...I bash the shameless pumper idiots who tell people to buy into a grossly overbought market
No, you bash tmosley, and only tmosley, because you have a vendetta against him because he schooled you on peak oil (a kindergardener knows what a peak looks like, but you don't, lol).
Yar. Principle < Principle + Interest. Debt unpayable at creation of first FRN.
True enough at moment debt contract is created.
But, the repayment occurs later in time. In the interim, borrower takes FRN, buys hen. Feeds and breeds hen, gets chicks. Chicks grow up to be chickens. Via debt one hen is turned into a dozen chickens. Sells two chickens, pockets change, repay P + I, has 10 chickens left over.
Well, actually, he probably has to give a chicken to the guy who helped him, give another one to the guy who sold him the feed, maybe eat one or two to stay alive, and still ends up with chickens to spare, and zero debt.
The problems crop up when business conditions are so lousy that producers who borrow the money cannot use it to produce enough wealth to pay the loan and its interest back. It is the lack of sufficient credit-spurred production that can cause a downward debt spiral, and not the creation of debt.
No, you miss the breakdown. Interest drives inflation. The system is rigged. Money at interest means money will die; 30yrs, 50yrs, could be 70yrs, but it will die. And blame goes to the usurers - as should the 5.56.
It's a sickening picture but you explain it clearly and well. Thanks. :-(
QE is about masking the total insolvency of the entire financial system. It has nothing whatsoever to do with jobs.
Correct.
Despite this, we are in the beginning stages of the final collapse.
Masking problems doesn't make them go away. Ben seems not to understand this.
If they ignore it long enough, they get a different kind of view...
you ever see the movie international with clive owen? There is a part where the main banker asks his tween son what to do when there seems to be no way out.
son's response,
pretty much sums it up.
There. Thought I'd help out.
Nice point, but I would have to disagree on the semantics. I wouldn't say that the financial system is insolvent as they can print money. It is that the fiat experiment + free market = failure.
Agreed, but I think this failure manifests itself first and foremost at the beating (or not, in this case) heart of the fiat system - the banks themselves. By attempting to conceal this failure, they attempt to conceal the wider failure of the entire fiat Ponzi.
If banks are running everything, and it seems like they are, why have government?
Because the banks can't make laws. They need the government as a proxy to make laws that favor their interests. This is known as "lobbying."
Ain't about jobs; it's about creating a buyer of last resort for treasuries.
I'd take a slightly different tack with your statement.
Let's assume that EVERY job gained since QE1 was announced was due entirely to QE. So that's about, what, 1 million or 2 million jobs? And the QE programs cost about $1.5T, right?
$1,500,000,000,000 / 2,000,000 jobs = $750,000 per job
Seems like quite the bargain.
And this is supposedly the abosolute BEST justification they can put forward.
The amount of shovel ready projects underway (infrastructure 'improvements') is making it hard to drive places (more traffic, expensive gas) and hindering productivity. Oh the irony.
running man, a quick story about road work, was on PA turnpike last week, hit stopped traffic outside of allentown, miles of trucks and cars backed up at 3pm...after hours of crawling at 2 to 5 miles an hour, came to the cause of the back up..One Maintenance truck parked in passing lane, with two workers out front one standing there the other actually held a shovel and seemed to be thinking about how he could use it..America you are great.
I've seen many examples in the NE US just like that. Rebuilding America one speed bump at a time... Maybe they want us to drive slower. What's the saying: "Success is a journey, not a destination, so stop running."
We've had similar experiences, same general area.
bullish for shovels!
:cricket: :cricket:
nothing? really?
since we are talking of tits...how are your razor sharp nipples faring...survived the OBL frustration?
nipples are good... shirt is another story. Gonna be an awkward conversation at the tailors.
glad to hear your priorities are right on the button. Tailors should only come from Panama and wear panama hats! Not like that Chindit fella in a pukka hat.
lol
bully sir.
QE3 will cause wheelbarrow production to skyrocket which in turn will create AT LEAST 5000 extra jobs!
but only if it's arround 5 trillion...
6 will do to.
Looking for a company that makes both wheelbarrows and applecarts. Should be a great long term investment.
Total Insanity, the new normal.
Ahhh but don't you see? If you wanted to detroy the dollar, what could be better??
Hey Funky Monkey boy. Bens so smart he makes refutes Alberts other thing.
"For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction" as well as the clincher
"Inertia is directly proportional to mass. So twice the mass, twice the inertia, So, the larger the mass, the greater the inertia."
Ben just forgot the Mass is coming back to smack him in his ass and its coming back at E= Mc2
Newton formulated the laws of motion, not Einstein.
albert formulated that when you went to his hall you ended up at his memorial as it was all relative given the speed of light. For anybody who has been to London this is obvious as brains dissolve into thin air under the effect of the mid day sun and the mini skirt.
Hmmmm... www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-05/fed-presidents-signal-employment-growt...
Nothing like a risk free profit to get those speculators to bid for bonds.
duh
Was this due to bad weather in April? Too cold? Too hot? Not enoiugh autos sold? Was OBL killed (supposedly) to distract us from reality more?
Not to worry by 2089 the weather will be "Just right."
It's because April has only 30 days. The month over month comparison is not fair. In fact, I also hear rumor that daylight savings time hurt the economy (gave employers more time to fire people.) The cherry blossoms were also late this year. I think they ought to give bonus days to some months--a kind of hedonic adjustment--when things are looking especially bad. On the other hand, maybe we are simply hosed.
This will be a definite positive when those people ride out the last miserable minutes of their benefits period. As they are exhausted, they "gave up and stopped looking for work", so unemployment will go down.
Yesterday, we opened two more consumer discretionary stores in Detroit, and are hiring - by the way - 6 young persons as sellers. Silverbugs might apply in order to get a lunch after the ---23% devastation.
Our stores were immediately assaulted by hundreds of young, pretty girls screaming like at a concert of Lady Gaga or Justin Bieber.
It is quite strange in the "crisis" libertarian doomers and Austrian economists try to sell us. Aren't purses supposed to be empty?
What I see in my daily life is that the global economic recovery is accelerating, and that the United States of America will still be the world's first superpower in 2050. No amount of dooming or statistics will change this cruel fact.
I was saddened to hear of your suicide by hanging next week.
We are hiring a coffee guy. You may want to apply after losing all your savings in the silver crash.
What I do is humanitarian work. I don't want you to end up in the Vegas sewers with all the meth addicts and escaped criminals.
So are the positions you are hiring for, are they the $25 - 30$ an hour 'Support your family" type wages?
Or are they the $4-$5 an hour 'Just enough to keep you alive(???) but destitute type positions ??
Yesterday, we opened two more......
It's true....he's in food stamps...and business is good....just ask 1 in 7 Americans.
"Consumer discretionary" = "expired bakery goods discount outlet". "Screaming girls" = fighting over last bag of 49-cent dinner rolls
"What I do is humanitarian work. I don't want you to end up in the Vegas sewers with all the meth addicts and escaped criminals."
Hey Hamy, IF you really do "HUMANITARIAN" work, then go and charge/purchase a used Glock 36, a box of tall kitchen garbage bags, go home, put said garbage bag over your head and tighten it around your worthless detroit neck, and more or less TRY and blow your fucking peanut brains out. Full magazine please, WE can't count on you hitting the mark with ONE shot. Now that would be TRULY HUMANITARIAN. Have a great day.......
Hamy I saw this yesterday and thought of you.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/a-dollar-collapse-no-way-the-u-s-dollar-rocks-propaganda
keep the laughs coming Hamy.
LOL!
He will be missed by his cat Buck...
I wonder how long it will take until anybody will find his corpse after complaining about the extra stench coming from his basement...
"He will be missed by his cat Buck...
I wonder how long it will take until anybody will find his corpse after complaining about the extra stench coming from his basement..." Sudden Debt......
Hamy's neighbors are used to THAT SMELL. Besides, it would give ole Buck meals for a couple of weeks...:)
Very funny! thanks for the laugh Hamy, I haven't seen HarryW. around for awhile, I do miss his unbridled optimism though.
I imagine during the Black Death plague, Undertakers were busy. So, like yourself, some were seeing the economy 'Picking Up' the more people died.
I guess it's the 'Best of Times and the Worst of Times" huh Wang?
And were those customers paying in cash or loading up credit cards?