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Initial Claims: 500K! Expectations Of 478K, Previous Revised To 488K, 300K+ Weekly Increase In Extended Aid Recipients
Welcome to the half a century. Treasuries surge. Futures plummet. Can't wait for Rosie's note.... Or Liesman's spin
Continuing claims at 4.478MM on expectations of 4.5MM; previous 4.452MM revised to 4.491MM.
Those receiving Extended Benefits and EUCs increased by over 300k (+49,229 and +260,105) week over week
However, don't panic - the depression may be over... in 2099.
And here is a chart of jobless claims (SA) which are now back to November 2009 levels.
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Recovery is in full effect. I do not understand why futures decided to reverse course, this jobless claims met my expectations.
Lol, it was actually better than my estimates, futures should be printing 1100...
so "surprised"...enjoying watching JPM in "full suppression" mode in the Comex gold and silver markets. silver, particularly, is proving a real problem for them to take down this morning....
do we think the peasants might be grasping there's a problem?
cue the GM IPO cheerleaders!
so "surprised"...enjoying watching JPM in "full suppression" mode in the Comex gold and silver markets. silver, particularly, is proving a real problem for them to take down this morning....
do we think the peasants might be grasping there's a problem?
cue the GM IPO cheerleaders!
No way. The peasants are too busy grasping their Guns, Bibles, and Beer. Nothing to see here.
A mob of drunk angry peasants with firearms is nothing to dismiss. They tend to forget about 'God Fearing' when they get screwed over. At some point I'd at least like a return to government for and by the people run with duty to the people as opposed to the political elite's scamming, skimming, and reelection machine. And that's why angry peasants make sure they are armed - it helps keep their representatives honest although they've done a good job at blanketly discouraging all firearms and painting them evil for 50 years or so (and with good reason - cover their own asses).
....if ammo were not in such current short supply, I would be more worried....if I were an elite.
Shouldn't that be the other way around? The fact that ammo is in short supply would worry me...
You'd be surprised how many of the peasants are armed. When I moved to Pennsylvania, where the first day of hunting season is a national holiday, I discovered the truth. People here have a ton of guns. It gives me hope that the downtrodden will eventually rise up and shoot a few deserving CEOs.
...surprising that Bernie made it into jail...just shows how forgiving we are as a whole...
I wouldn't worry about angry peasants, as long as they are willing to die defending tax cuts for the wealthy and big business. When the peasants actually want a cut of the pie is when things will change.
yeah, "the ol'e sideways" trading routine as Maxwell Smart would say...
comical to observe...
The summer of recovery....
And heavy drinking.
Speaking of which, I am quite hungover today. Damn those shots of 151.
booze is a buy!!!
Booze business - Totally recession free! Futures hit the floor at 1085, probably going up today again... Time to short bonds instead of equities?
Fed buys today and tom... take profit and then take it up the ass
Local (Cleveland) major brewery is hiring for sales reps to send to Chicago, and I'm sending in my resume. I know my job would be stable and paychecks would always come in. People never stop buying beer :)
I would not bet the farm on that statement.
Blackout Stout, FTW!
Conrad, are you a fellow Thievelander? Blackout Stout is so appropriately named...
Indeed; Thieveland, Ohydro my whole life, eastside. We may be the mistake on the lake, but we sure as fuck got our beer right. And the West Side Market is great too.
Might have a look into the DIY homebrew market first...
Buy your local Brew! Or Brew your own ..bitchez
this is fantastic news and proves the jobless recovery is going from strength to strength.
more jobless = more recovery! We will be out of this mess in no time
Let the rally begin!!!!!!
firstdivision
I just read an article claiming employment was getting cheaper in the US than India.
Ha, that is quite funny. India is a clusterfuck of economic limbo. They have hyperinflation, yet most of the country is still too poor to afford shoes. Wait, they are trying to beat us to the "New Normal".
...but HOG believes they can afford $20K bikes? Maybe cash-out-re-fi's are still working over there?
...but HOG believes they can afford $20K bikes? Maybe cash-out-re-fi's are still working over there?
FT article about call centers?
Weekly jobless claims (inverted) are actually a heck of a good leading stock market indicator. So unless Ben and his merry printing machine can change history, things are not looking so bright ahead. See chart here.
http://is.gd/eoI3M
If you lag the ECRI (as a %yoy) and the 4weekSA you get an R^2 of 75%. Smoothed you get like 85%... im over 600K by MAR...
thats a funny post dude :) is it yours?
"Recovery is in full effect. I do not understand why futures decided to reverse course, this jobless claims met my expectations."
Just another one of those "green shoots" events in the midst of the Obama's "Summer of Recovery" - stocks soar!!!
Oh my.
Whoops. Ouch, that hurt.
While I don't want anyone to suffer, the fact remains that pain and suffering is coming. Period. Full stop, end of sentence. The fact that the powers that be have kicked the can down the road is the reason we are looking at exponentially worse pain and suffering today than we were looking at 2 years ago.
Even from a compassion point of view, the can kicking doesn't make sense. There was an article (was it here on ZH?) I read a few months ago about burn victims, pain during the bandage changes and the nursing staff. The staff felt that the best way to deal with the pain caused by literally pulling off the bandages was to do so slowly.
But the vast majority of the patients wanted it done quickly, to get it over with. It was the inability of the care givers to emotionally deal with inflicting pain upon the patient while changing bandages that actually caused the patient more pain. The nurse and doctors came up with a rationalization for the slow technique they used that made them feel better.
The economic bandages must and will come off. Do we push aside the doctors and nurses and remove them ourselves or do we meekly submit to their "authority" and endure much more pain than we have to? The choice is ours. Will we emotionally be as cowardly?
Unfortunately, in order to avoid removing our bandages, Nurse Ben is burning us more. We came in with a cigarette burn inflicted by FDR that just wouldn't heal, and now we have 3rd degree burns over 90% of our body. Next comes the 4th degree (that means charred bones).
Cognitive Dissonance = (Militant 2)
[Black Dynamite walks into the militant group's hideout]
Black Dynamite: Excuse me, brothers.
Militant #3: [Gets up] The militants turn, startled. This is private. How'd you get in here?
Black Dynamite: I walked in.
Militant 2: So you one of them sneaky brothers, huh? Or maybe you an undercover pig. Or maybe you just a federal hitman.
Black Dynamite: If I was, you cats would already be dead. Now let me speak to the man in charge.
Militant #3: Sarcastically, I'm in charge.
[Exchanges hi-fives with the other militant]
Black Dynamite: If you were in charge, the people might as well surrender to whitey right now, because your survival skills ain't worth a damn.
Saheed: Black Dynamite.
[Walks into the room]
Saheed: It's been a long time, my brother.
Black Dynamite: [Exchanging hi-fives with Saheed] What it is, Saheed?
Militant 2: You know this Uncle Tom?
Black Dynamite: Listen sucka, I'm blacker than the ace of spades and more militant than you and your whole damn army put together. While you out there, chanting at rallies and brow-beating politicians, I'm taking out any money-fronting sucka on a humble that gets in my way. So I tell you what, when your so called revolution starts, you call me, and I'll be right down front showing you how it's done. But until then, you need to SHUT the FUCK UP when grown folks is talking.
Militant 2: I'm sorry.
Saheed: Yeah, we heard about what went down at the Hip Pocket. That was righteous.
Black Dynamite: That was personal, brother.
Saheed: Personal or not, you saved a lot of brothers and sisters. You need our help,
[pounds chest with right fist]
Saheed: we're here.
Black Dynamite: I can dig it.
[Black Dynamite pulls the bullet casing from his pocket]
Black Dynamite: What can you tell me about this?
[Saheed takes the casing, sniffs the inside for gunpowder and licks the outer casing]
Saheed: I ain't seen one of these in a while.
[Black Dynamite and Saheed walk out of the room]
Militant 2: [Whispers] I was gonna fuck him up.
Time for your meds.
Is this person stereotyping Jews? If so, I am offended.
dup.
Lot of effort there to do that. Implies some kind of investment.
The compassion point of view is to realise that every being that is present for what is to come needs those circumstances in order to realise their dreams and experience. That is the math. The emotions always are harder to accomodate.
War / Peace >> All under the big tent called Love.
CD....."While I don't want anyone to suffer"
Suffering and pain motivate change, which is good, however most American's are not in enough pain yet.
I pose a question: While the pain increases will the American citizenry make the patriotic decision to uphold the Constitution, and purge Washington of the evil it's become?
We humans are controlled with fear. I proffer that any pain realized is actually our liberator because once realized, it no longer can control because it can no longer be avoided.
However, after 60 years and 3 generations of conditioning and indoctrination in a wide variety of pain avoidance and fear heightening techniques, I suspect that the tendency will be to dump all moral, social and legal contracts in the river that was originally stained with tea in the rush to avoid the unavoidable pain.
Love your comments as always, keep it up CD
Agreed.. Nothing will happen until the threat is so real that not even hopium on MSM can sooth our outlook and maintain passive behavior.
No, the ignorant US population has been trashing the their constitution for 100 years. Get ready for the the new TV reality show "American Collectivist." That is your new America.
How do we push Chief surgeons Ben and Tim and the Hospital administrators (Obama et alteri) aside? It's frustrating watching the operating room. Until a critical mass of informed public surfaces, we are relegated to helpless spectator status. We can protect ourselves to some degree but the damage to the system as a whole continues. To a large degree, the public gets what it deserves/asks for. Few are willing to reallign their lifestyles to bring them in line with their means. Few are willing to fully comprehend their own excessess and those executed on their behalf by federal, state and local governments. Most of my friends still think that (more) government intervention is the answer. The concepts of honest money, accounting, markets, balanced budgets and general transparency are not on the lips of too many.
Well, the more rational patients of the insane asylum just need to calmly explain to Tim, Ben and Barry that they need to get back to their rooms and take the meds STAT. Oh, and on their way would they please untie and ungag the real doctors and nurses?
The burns researcher was Dan Ariely; poor guy started out by getting the burns himself.
Thank you for the link. I found him through one of his articles discussing what he also talked about on TED.
It is sometimes the case that only after experiencing personal pain will we begin to look beyond the facade and start asking the tough questions. This is why I expect average Jane/Joe will suffer much more pain before s/he are willing to drop their preconceived notions and confront all those painful cognitive dissonances.
But I wish to stress that this doesn't mean that nothing can nor should be done to open minds and begin the process of change.
Wellllll, he was in to whips and chains, she was into pain.....
David Allan Coe
I wondered if my "pain" reference would bring out the S & M crowd. Welcome to the freak show. Help yourself to coffee and tea over there and we have a new selection of whips and gags over here.
Grab me (not literally please, at least not......there) if you need anything. :>)
Having a wife who is a nurse and has had to do this very thing I can tell you that when you pull bandages quickly from a burn wound you are more likely to pull away the scabs along with the bandages thus increasing the time it takes for the injury to heal and increasing the likelihood of infection.
Neither I nor Dan Ariely were talking about ripping away or rapidly removing the bandages. May I suggest you watch the video?
http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_ariely_on_our_buggy_moral_code.html
He was talking about the total time involved during each session of bandage changing. Please, watch the video.
CNBS: Initial claims come in at well under a 1MM. Win for the bulls.
It's been dropped in favor of the "Breaking News" of Intel swallowing Mcafee. Which means the futures are beginning to rebound since attention has been redirected.
Move along, nothing to see here. Just wait until next weeks employment numbers. They'll be much better. Can successfully kicked down the road another week.
Yeah how about those 99ers mad hating every street corners across the states ... sigh ... my condolences to them
Prepare for market ramp in T-minus 57 minutes...
Buy the dip for the POMO bounce....
10yr or which one? or esu0?
Last POMO ESU0 went apeshit.
cheers!
And this is why today was a POMO day, gotta pump it with guns blazing.
notice how they stole those 1095ish stops? Who would have bought that news flash to cause a surge like that ? Fucking criminal
that's the longest 5 min candle I've seen in a while
Will this affect the GM IPO? </sarcasm>
Uglyyyyy!!!
Recovery Summer, baby.
ah cool...jobless recovery in full swing...let me buy some stocks then...
No need to Panic, We will take care of Iran this weekend and will show to the world that we have the best printers around the globe.
Well we have to send the boys coming home from Iraq somewhere. We can't have them leaving the military and adding to the number of unemployed job seekers this close to elections.
Yeah, some of them might even run for Congress and cause a ripple in the Force. Ship 'em out!
Stick them on the Mexican Border... do we have a job for them!
Bloomberg Radio are interviewing some dumbass who is trying to laugh this off by claiming that people re-applying for extended benefits are accidentally being counted as initial claims and therefore making the number look worse.
I pity anybody with funds under management with that joker.
a lot of people do try to cheat the system. This isn't accounted for but it is the Achilles heal of the US and other countries who have full time scammers of the system -whether it be Wall Street or Section 8. Main Street is fuct
But how does this figure differ from last weeks? The problem hasn't suddenly appeared.
I spilled my dam coffee with BB radio this am... he cant even be called a joker... he was full of GM juice or fecal matter if you will
Wait.....you mean.....gulp....DUKEY!?!
so how come futures are up with s and P at 1092?
WTF?
See the posts above and earlier TD articles on POMO (ie Fed buying T's) Day.
The liquidity has to go somewhere so it goes ... into equities.
Especially now that the PDs know the CUSIPS and profit hansomely from it. :-)
No problemo. Dont you know we are on the road to recovery and we shall rebuild this economy stronger than eva </sarcasm>..we have saved GM, never mind that in their prospectus they forecast 6% increase in sales 5 years into the future. How does that sound when you have 500K claims right here at home? Where are they going to sell these cars?..in highly cost sensitive markets like China and India?
All I see is a whole bunch of chickens coming home!!
This will not end well!!
buy small caps!
the program probably will
because the markets are 100% fake
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uc1dFtShpko
coming to a Main Street near you.
The talking heads on CNBC are acting like chickens with their heads cut off over this report. Anybody with a rational economic view has understood all along that things were not going to get any better any time soon on the path we started on 2 years ago.
I love the smell of POMO in the morning.
council
headless chickens still have higher Iq that anyone on CNBC
2 (40-60 years) generations this time... Japan will be 3 (60-80 years) generations if you mark it from 1989.
Joe "Bite Me" strikes again, what a savant! The humanity!
Ted Rall sums it up nicely.
http://imgsrv.gocomics.com/dim/?fh=f8d080a45b5654a375acfcd4e3b8ec28&w=750.0
Krugman was right we need more stimulus :)
I get it. It's the citizen shopaholic recovery! Cold turkey, no pansy group therapy classes for us.
The markets want to pin the SPX at 1100 come friday.....I don't expect a real response to this number till next week.
Exactly - then short, short, short.
http://i36.tinypic.com/v4biwh.jpg
I'll see your pic and raise ya one:
http://v3.caseyresearch.com/images/Linear-Dow-orig.gif
Market up! More printed $ coming, YAY!
Surely half a millenium?
awaiting the bears and rosie are "always" wrong rocket scientists to wax eloquent this morning.
Great news for the market. It means there will be another stimulus and even more money pumped into the market.
It's a monster (jobs report)!
Good job Rosie.
I am going to pat myself on the back here a little and say that I called for a return to 500+ jobless before Rosie here on ZH about 2 months ago. Regardless this is great in now finally giving Rosenberg some more respect and hopefully more airtime regarding the true economic picture.
The truth is there for anyone who wishes to see it. Jobloss begets more job loss withoutt credit expansion. America runs on small business and they have been sold down the river for banks and corporate interests.
Next up municipal and state job loss.
Now back to calling Tyler and the ZH crew sensationalistic (Truth Speakers).
Love your posts John. But since the stock market always looks forward, and is expecting better results in the future (anytime in the future will do) with or without lowered expectations, it should be impossible for equities to fall. 2007 you say? Glitch in the machinery, same in 2000, 1998, 1987, 1929. Stocks Aaaalways go up in the long run. Stick to the corporate fundamentals (the ones that are a blatant "low interest lie" based on borrowed consumption).. Ok this was sarcasm, now fail you soggy swamp donkey of a market! Maybe the Duke Brothers have it cornered?
It's not a problem, stocks WILL always go up.
Just need a couple decades of zero real returns to catch our breath...oh and a little 'pit stop' at gold:Dow 1:1 ratio at 5,000.
No biggie.
The BANKERS ALWAYS WIN. Wash, rinse, repeat!
Same here http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ugly-economic-data-continues-validating-double-dip-deterioration-empire-manufacturing-ppi-an#comment-470632. Since we called it, where do we go to redeem our calls for a PhD in Alchemy...err Economics?
To the back of the unemployment line of course. Only after imbibing in enough Kool-aid and free cookies and were will to stop speaking such herecy as economic reality and spout happy Keynes thoughts will you be granted a PHD. Then you too can turn paper and debt slavery into gold just like ou elites.
Hey, at least 90.5% of those ready, willing and able to work* still have a job.
And lookie ... continuing claims were below expectations! What cheer!
Cut to scene of mass crucifixion ... roll music:
"Always look on the bright side of Life! [Whistle, Whistle, Whistle, Whistle Whistle]
Always look on the bright side of Life [Whistle, Whistle, Whistle, Whistle Whistle]
Life's a piece of sh*t, when you look at it ....
Da da da da da da da da da"
*definition of ready, willing and able to work subject to change without notice ... it is an election year, after all.
Really not much else to say except that I want to hear from all of the Keynesians and people who keep telling us about this nascent recovery. L-E-O Where are you? Please explain these numbers to me?
"Alright one of you mofos do some M&A before the bell. We don't care who or what. But if one of you don't we may just unleash the DOJ. "
"Aww geez the Intel guys says, how about we do McAfee for 7.8 Billion"
"Yeah, Now your talking. Now if we can get one of those a day, we can pop this unemployment news and Ben will take care of the rest"
God Bless you fine Americans
That about wraps it up for western civilization.
Trillion_ LMAO. That about sums it up.
It's really not so bad. It's just all the high schoolers going back and quitting Subway.
Wait, did they fire more census workers than anticipated?
Per wife, we had a census worker visit today. All we know is that the USG now has us down for two dobermans.
LOL...I never got one...sniff sniff.
Probably because of those damn dog's running loose again...I guess I should feed them at some point ;-)
Estimates of the 42 economists surveyed by Bloomberg ranged from 460,000 to 495,000. The government revised the prior week’s claims figure to 488,000 from a previously reported 484,000. Initial filings last week were the highest since the week ended Nov. 14, 2009.
So, 5K over the worst estimate of the alleged experts and, once again, the previous number is adjusted to make the delta look better.
The indexes should rally hard, as those buying stock are of the opinion that employees are an onerous expense best done away with so that the corporate bottom lines show even more profitibility.
They need to get some new analysts. ALL 42 ECONOMISTS surveyed were wrong to the optimistic side, as they almost always are (why do you think we get some many "unexpected" data points?). That's not accidental. It's corrupt. Why are they practically never wrong to the negative side? Because that's bad for business.
Disregard this jobless report.
Chinese solar, bitchez! :)
This is dreadful news! This is a breakout of the recent range -- in the WRONG direction. Perhaps someone can post a chart!
Somehow, I suspect that most of the saavy people here were expecting this and weren't surprised. Only the over-optimistic "economists" were caught with their pants down!
Further proof of the failure of Obamanomics. But then, it wasn't really intended to stimulate JOBS. It was only intended to stimulate the pockets of Obama's political cronies -- at the cost of everyone else! And now the ugly progressive chickens are beginning to come home to roost!
Our markets continue to be a joke. Who cares about an increase in jobless claims? Does it matter? Apparently not as the futures hardly flinched. They should be dropping like a stone.
The market full of bullshit continues....
Ditto! Reaction was swift, but only temporary! Shows that we have "manipulated markets". Not a true market at all!
But whena true plunge comes, it will be from an artificially-high level, providing even greater opportunity to sell into the plunge when it happens!
Wein on CNBC may be an Obama lover but he hit it right on the head about the distrust of the market. The quants could give a damn if the collapse of the US economy is weeks away...they are focused on making that tenth of cent profit in the next millisecond. The long-term investor that studies charts is irrelevant. The machines have set up their own little world inside the market numbers and are cozy there.
The new norm is that until a massive influx of overwhelming sell orders from something outside of the matrix overwhelms the fractional games...the games will continue.
...and futures go green again. How surprising....not.
POMO... dont play on POMO days
Not playing, just observing something that I expected with it being a POMO. Yesterday I recommended buying a 3X ETF on the jobless report then watch it fly up through the day and close out at EOD. I am personally sitting on a lot of puts for Oct/Nov/Jan. I expect the blood to flow into the streets next month. Should be fun :)
not bad, im wating for the vix to consoldate a bit and then im long deep OTM puts...
I hope no one took my advice as it looks like there is no way we are getting out of today's hole, minus a miracle of biblical proportions.
Gold knows the truth. $1234.10.
Here's a concise recap:
The Purpose Behind the Engineered Economic Collapse
http://neithercorp.us/npress/?p=674
I suppose this will be spun as "oh, that was already discounted by the market. It was fully 'priced in' already". What a truckload of crap!
I'm looking forward to the morning when CNBS tries going to a commercial break after reporting
some horrible economic news but there is no commercialto go to.
Unfortunately, you'll be seeing this:
http://www.marines.com/main/index/new_marines_commercial
"U.S. stock index futures pointed to a flat to slightly lower open Thursday after the government reported a jump in unemployment claims" CNBC
The circus is in town. I guess CNBC knows who is going to prop the market at the open.
That's interesting.
So, no POMO bounce today?
Just because we had the clearest evidence that the economy sucks...
No POMO bounce today?
I want to trade!
I'm hiding in Honduras, I'm a desperate man...
Send lawyers, guns, and money. The shit has hit the fan.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5puAN1PGQw
The Bush tax cuts have been in effect unaltered during the past two years and for the 8 years prior to that. Where are the jobs? Congressional Republicans should be in the smallest of small towns, in their states, where they won't be recognized, applying for jobs. Use Faux News and the ACORN couple to film the results and report them on Faux.
Are you suggesting the philosopher kings know better than we do about how to spend our money? Is government not big enough for you?
he's suggesting that Republican philosopher kings sold the tax cuts as a job creating juggernaut...just like NAFTA & GATT were to be before them...
We've been had...By the Left, by the Right. We've been had.
We just got a good news. The report was incorrect. PPT is hiring huge number of temp workers for part time job. Working hours from 9.25 to 9.45 and from 3PM to 4PM.
As long as people can watch the monitor they are qualified.
Job description:
Please do nothing, our algos playing the strategy of "Empire strikes back"
Returning soldiers from Iraq should add to the "surge" of unemployed, don't ya think? Maybe they'll house them in the REO shadow inventory and make the taxpayer pay the rent.
Nice going. We transferred the treasury lute to warmongering profiteers and imported Iraqi poverty. I've just about had enough.
"You see what happens? You see what happens? This is what happens when you fuck a stranger in the ass"
Chinese Investors Protest and Demand their Money Back from the Government As New Chinese Cities Remain Empty
For all of you wondering WHEN the Treasury will default on its debt I submit to you this evidence:
https://marketforceanalysis.com/articles/latest_article_081810.html
My reading of this is that the Central Banks have lost control of the last plug in the creaking dike holding back an alternative currency that will wash away all debts.
Yes ladies and gentlemen the end is nigh, Central Planning is about to go the way of the dodo. Why will this precipitate debt to fall from the system like crystals forming in a super saturated liquid in a high school chemistry class:
Interest Rates and the Price of Gold are inversely proportional.
A rising Gold price will pull dollar holders into Gold because it's an alternative currency.
To keep dollar holders the Fed will have to raise Rates to attract them (like Volker did in 1980).
Rising Rates will pop the ridiculous USTreasury Bond Bubble.
And Worse....wait for it.....waaaaiiit fooor iiittttt.....cause the Treasury to "restructure" their debt.
I have a very good friend, 1/2 Chinese, 1/2 American who is preparing to come to spend a long time with me.
The point is, this person has always been honest with me and this same person expresses a great deal of FEAR (only word for it) about what is going to happen to her family and friends in the PRC.
The many educated & "connected" Chinese nationals I know have no concerns, other than inflation...The poor folks there are doomed.
She's an intellectual lighting bolt and has achieved a degree of affluence but her family and such are not monied people.