Initial Claims Come At 450K, Down 3K On Expectations Of 459K, Minor Prior Revision

Initial jobless claims come in at 450K, a drop of 3K from last week's revised slightly higher to 453K, a number which as readers will recall was estimated by various states and also the US government due to the holiday weekend. Oddly enough the action was in the continuing claims category, where the weekly number surpassed expectations of 4,464K to 4,485K, and the previous number was revised from 4,478K to 4,569K. And the worst piece of news for the economy: there was a decline of half a million in those on Extended Benefits and Emergency Claims as more and more people exhaust their total maximum 99 week allottment.

Here is Goldman's take on the surprising plunge in EUC + Extendeds:

1. The biggest news in this battery of reports that the number of unemployed workers receiving extended or emergency benefits dropped a combined total of 508,000 in the week ending August 28. At this writing we have no clear explanation for this. Among the possible reasons to discount it: (a) Statistical noise; however, this drop comes two weeks after a 320,000 drop, with no significant change in the intervening week. (b) September is a strong month for hiring; payrolls tend to rise by about 500,000 between August and September before seasonal adjustment. Since the data on emergency/extended benefits are not seasonally adjusted they may simply reflect this seasonal rhythm, though we don't see anything similar in the corresponding week of 2009. (c) The declines of recent weeks are coming about two years after the labor market began to deteriorate seriously in the wake of the Lehman bankruptcy; since benefits are paid for 99 weeks, we may be seeing exhaustions of eligibility in the data.

2. Otherwise, the data on claims were mixed relative to expectations but fairly unremarkable. Initial claims fell 3,000 to 450,000, suggesting that last week's drop was not a fluke. Continuing claims fell 84,000 but from a level that was revised up sharply (up 91,000 from the level reported last week). None of the data points covered in this report applies to the survey week for the September employment report, which is being conducted this week.

3. Producer prices behaved as expected, with energy prices accounting for most of the boost in the headline. The core indexes for both finished goods and intermediate product rose only 0.1% with little in the detail on finished goods worth mentioning.

4. The current account deficit was likewise close to expectations, as the widening in the trade deficit already reported drove the increase. Balances on income and unilateral transfers improved by $1bn and $2bn, respectively.

Comments

[cossack55]

Thats it.  I am going to blow my brains out and then run for public office.

[Cursive]

Just find a mid-priced hooker and have her blow you, then run for office.  Works for most of the office holding bastards we have now.

[Turd Ferguson]

Just so, that we all know U.S. Snooze makes it clear...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/How-to-Tell-When-the-usnews-2991153962.htm...

[TheJiddish]

Hey - looks like mid 2011 is the place to be according to US News.

I like the last one - You feel better - I feel great! Buy Buy Buy!

[Hansel]

I don't believe last week's revision, when 9 states guessed.

[chinaguy]

They were very good guesses!

[fuu]

Exactly. You guess 9 states and the revision is that small? Maybe they are just spreading a big revision over a few weeks.

[Divided States ...]

I think the revisions are also guestimated. Honestly, nobody can do anything about it and they know it.

[Cognitive Dissonance]

And the worst piece of news for the economy: there was a decline of half a million in those on Extended Benefits and Emergency Claims as more and more people exhaust their total maximum 99 week allotment.

The lies and deceit of government are endless. But they will never be seriously challenged so long as the government can shield the population from the deleterious effects of its policies. Knowing this, how long will the government go on throwing people off the unemployment dole before they extend benefits out to 125 or 150 weeks?

[Translational Lift]

In a bid to goose the poor unemployment picture just before the election, your government is doing something it has never done before: it is forcing temporary polling workers across the country to fill out tax forms (even though they'll only make about $100 for the day) so that they can be counted as employed, thus fraudulently goosing the jobs data. How pathetic!

I can't wait until they ad these #'s to the employment report!

Data and Gov Scams

Today was your garden variety up day on Fraud Street: bad news drove the market higher again...on very low volume - again.

1. Empire State Manufacturing Index comes out lower than expected, dropping almost 50% from last month's reading. Moreover, the degree of optimism about the six-month outlook continued to deteriorate, with the future general business conditions index hitting its lowest level since early 2009.
2. Industrial Production was "as expected" but the prior month's gain was gutted by 40%.
3. Capacity Utilization came in a little worse than expectations with its prior month's reading also being reduced. (Are revisions ever positive? Said another way: Is the original headline data always over optimistic? Gee, I wonder why that would happen?)
4. Home Price declines prompted Diana Olick of CNBC to claim that the double dip in home prices has begun.
5. With this "great news" and the Fed goosing equities via POMO actions, the market had to rally. Seriously, what would you expect - a decline?

In other news, the government is ready to pull the "jobs wool" over your eyes. Please don't let your friends fall for this cheap parlor trick.

In a bid to goose the poor unemployment picture just before the election, your government is doing something it has never done before: it is forcing temporary polling workers across the country to fill out tax forms (even though they'll only make about $100 for the day) so that they can be counted as employed, thus fraudulently goosing the jobs data. How pathetic!

From the story we read..."I have been a poll worker (for) many years," wrote one of my readers, who alerted me to this situation, "and after all these years, on Aug. 31, we received a letter in the mail from the Board of Elections stating the IRS has determined that if we work the polls we are now considered employees of the BofE."

Because this report is more complex than others it is being released on the second Friday of October, not the first Friday. And because of this it will be one week closer to the election.

There won't be another employment report until days after the Nov. 2 election.

So any temporary poll workers included in the October count wouldn't be removed until voters have already decided on who will represent them.

Read more: here

           

Larry Levin

[midtowng]

I wonder how someone can find the true number for the 99ers? It would be interesting to see how quickly that number is rising.

[Id fight Gandhi]

How can 450k lost in a "recovery" be considered good?

[ptoemmes]

Yeah,,,I see this gem slipped into the CNBS WEBsite atricle: http://www.cnbc.com/id/39209448

"The second straight week of declines pulled claims for unemployment benefits further away from a nine-month high of 504,000 touched in mid-August and claims are now in the upper end of a 400,000-450,000 range that analysts say is associated with sustainable job growth."

Sustainable job growth huh...that would make a good Captcha problem.

Pete

[Chump]

I'm not an economist, and I only have an A.A.S. and a B.S. (not from the Ivy League, either) but I think it's because a couple really smart dudes were all like, "It's gonna be way higher than 450K."  So when it's like, not that high, that's like all good and stuff.  I know this seems complicated and counter-intuitive, but we should leave the heavy mental lifting to our betters, ya know?

[papaswamp]

I think we are seeing a lagging pop from end of summer. October will probably be more telling than Sept.. But I could be wrong. Are we at the point where laying off anymore closes businesses? Or are things really improving? 3 weeks of data probably not enough to tell.

[John McCloy]

Everyone be sure to tune to CNBC it's our lucky day. Larry Summers is appearing in CNBC to explain these numbers to us with playdoh and crayons and assure us the government is not at the stage of data falsification. We can also expect him to " nothing to see here us" on inflation uptick.

[Cursive]

LOL.  Gumby meets Mr. Bill on Mr. Roger's Neighborhood.

[Cognitive Dissonance]

Tuned in now, but I made the mistake of flipping on the sound. Luckily I realized within 30 seconds that nothing of substance was being said by little boy Summers and I hit the mute in time to save my soul.

[John McCloy]

Mr.Bill was such a classic. Unfortunately it will soon turn out Mr. Robinsons neighborhood as opposed to Mr. Rogers is the norm.

[Cursive]

Unemployment benefits are limited to 99 weeks!  What kind of a country is this!  This economy needs lifetime unemployment benefits, damnit!  John Maynard Kenynes would not stand for this kind of idiocy. (/sarcasm)

[papaswamp]

It's called SNAP and it is at an all time record 41.2 Million (or 13% of the population). A more telling statistic(s) is ~45% of households don't pay fed income tax yet 41% of housholds have someone on some sort of govt assistance.

[1100-TACTICAL-12]

Fed ex laying off 1,700, things are really picking up...

[SmalleyD]

So, we should expect the market to go up?

[EscapeKey]

When shouldn't we?

[firstdivision]

Federal Employees

4,912

4,720

+192

1,560

Newly Discharged Veterans

4,226

2,645

+1,581

2,260

This was quite interesting to see.  Fed's and Discharged Vets filing initial claims is accelerating.  This and companies *cough*FedEx*cough* are starting to announce additional cost cutting measures to meet next quarters EPS. 

[NOTW777]

dont worry, larry summers says he wants to help business and "move forward"

who can put up with these empty suits

[pachanguero]

Jim Cramer says ...."buy buy buy"  CNBC says "buy buy buy'  "Warren Buffet says 'buy buy buy!"   Now you people have got your orders so do what the people who have our best interests at heart say! You have your orders!  now BUY!

Don't you fools get it?  Everything is fine and Obama loves you!

(if you're a NWO buddy of his like Soros)

[NOTW777]

summers laments the deficit that he helped create

[NOTW777]

laughable - says obama more business friendly than other admins

right, so is chavez

[Id fight Gandhi]

Lowest claims this year was in july with 427k. Highest was 504k in august. Big fucking deal. We need under 400k.

[NOTW777]

for this admin and cnbc, those #s are considered good performance from an affirmative action standard

[NOTW777]

right on cue, haines and burnett laud the #s - really, we are moving in the right direction 20 trillion deficit, just a little more

[Id fight Gandhi]

Fuck them. Saying fedex is doing fine even after reducing guidance and laying off 1700 people.

Cnbs leaves that off

[old_turk]

4-Wk Moving Average (SA) 464,750

OK, you guys made me look.  The 4 week moving average is the 'better' number as it takes a lot of 'noise' contained in the weekly mirage that gets posted.

Jury says ... we still suck!!!  Just not a bad as week.

Welcome to the recovery, bitchez!

[Phat Stax]

Managers tend not to lay off in the summertime... they talk amongst themselves about doing so and make targeted lists, and then put those into action between Sept-Nov. right until Thanksgiving.  Thanksgiving through the year-end is an unwritten "blackout" among companies with half a conscience.  It helps managers feel better about themselves.   So... we are entering the hot zone for the remainder of 2010.

[MondayMonday]

And remember Monday was a holiday, making for less firings and less filings.

[Herry12]

I found lots of interesting information here. I love zerohedge.
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