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Initial Claims Come At 451K On Expectations Of 470K, Trade Deficit Declines From $47 Billion To $42.8 Billion
Futures surge as the US economy continues to hemorrhage jobs: a 451K print in initial jobless claims merely means that ever more people are being shifted over to extended benefits, which increased by 64.7K. One can be sure that at least 20K of this number is those hitting the 6 month ceiling on claim applicability. Also, continuing claims increased by 22K, and came in 28K worse than expected, at 4,478K compared to expectations of 4,450. And yes, anything over 400K means no job creation (private or census), contrary to whatever the DOL may want everyone to believe.
Elsewhere, the US trade deficit for July came out at "only" $42.8 billion on expectations of $47 billion, with the previous print slightly revised to $49.8 billion. We are looking forward to the Chinese release over the weekend of their version of the story, which will show more updated August data, and allow to read into how the China-US trade balance is developing.
More from the Trade Balance report:
Goods and Services
- Exports increased to $153.3 billion in July from $150.6
billion in June. Goods were $107.7 billion in July, up from $104.9
billion in June, and services were $45.6 billion in July, virtually
unchanged from June. - Imports decreased to $196.1 billion in July from $200.3
billion in June. Goods were $162.9 billion in July, down from $167.1
billion in June, and services were $33.2 billion in July, virtually
unchanged from June. - For goods, the deficit was $55.2 billion in July, down from
$62.2 billion in June. For services, the surplus was $12.5 billion in
July, virtually unchanged from June.
Goods by Category (Census basis)
- The June to July increase in exports of goods reflected
increases in capital goods ($2.3 billion); other goods ($0.5 billion);
and industrial supplies and materials ($0.5 billion). A decrease
occurred in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.4 billion).
Foods, feeds, and beverages and consumer goods were virtually
unchanged. - The June to July decrease in imports of goods reflected
decreases in consumer goods ($1.9 billion); automotive vehicles, parts,
and engines ($0.7 billion); capital goods ($0.6 billion); industrial
supplies and materials ($0.4 billion); other goods ($0.3 billion); and
foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion).
Services by Category
- Exports of services were virtually unchanged from June to
July. Decreases in other private services ($0.2 billion), which
includes items such as business, professional, and technical services,
insurance services, and financial services, and in other transportation
($0.1 billion), which includes freight and port services, were partly
offset by an increase in travel ($0.1 billion). Changes in the other
categories of services exports were small. - Imports of services were virtually unchanged from June to
July. A decrease in royalties and license fees ($0.1 billion), which
were boosted in June by payments for rights related to the 2010 soccer
World Cup, were partly offset by an increase in travel ($0.1 billion).
Changes in the other categories of services imports were small.
Goods by Geographic Area (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
- The goods deficit with Canada decreased from $2.5 billion in
June to $1.4 billion in July. Exports decreased $2.6 billion
(primarily automobiles, parts, and accessories) to $19.7 billion, while
imports decreased $3.7 billion (primarily passenger cars and crude oil)
to $21.1 billion. - The goods deficit with China decreased from $26.2 billion in
June to $25.9 billion in July. Exports increased $0.6 billion
(primarily civilian aircraft, engines, equipment, and parts) to $7.3
billion, while imports increased $0.4 billion (primarily toys, games,
and sporting goods and apparel) to $33.3 billion. - The goods deficit with the European Union increased from
$7.8 billion in June to $9.9 billion in July. Exports decreased $1.6
billion (primarily pharmaceutical preparations and civilian aircraft,
engines, equipment, and parts) to $18.8 billion, while imports increased
$0.5 billion (primarily petroleum products) to $28.7 billion.
This and more information is provided in the Bureau
of the Census and Bureau of Economic
Analysis press release:
U.S.International Trade in Goods and Services:July 2010
.
For further information on goods, contact Maria
Iseman, Foreign Trade Division, U.S. Census Bureau, on (301) 763-2311;
on services, contact Edward Dozier, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, on
(202) 606-9559.NOTE: Total goods data are reported on a Balance of Payments basis;
commodity and country detail data for goods are on a Census basis.
For information on data sources and definitions, see the information
section on page A-1 of the FT-900 release, or at www.census.gov/ft900
or http://www.bea.gov/bea/di/home/trade.htm.
»
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I have a picture of Ben squeezing the numbers butts in my head right now.
Tyler, what were the revisions for prior numbers like?
Dow 60K is the only number you need to know!
Well I am finding that last weeks number was revised up by 6Kto 478K. Last week the market was expecting 470K. These revisions are getting ridiculously wild. The Fed has institued a policy of lie to get the markets up, then quietly revise the number upwards the following week.
Am hearing Labor day meant 9 states reported delays in filing claims, so the true number is likely higher.
It's all about the lie now.
The Government Number Revisions Dept. hired 19k . There is always a perfectly logical explanation.
More good news. I mean yeah, we only lost another 450K jobs, reason to celebrate. I'm still in awe of a market that considers this good news. I should be used to this stuff by now. One may never get used to acutally living in the Twillight Zone.
FIREWORKS LIKE IT'S THE 4TH OF JULY BABY!!!
DON'T MIND THE GAP!
DOW +25% TODAY! WHOEHA!
Run those longs, Sudden ... but tighten those stops, the down draft will likely be violent!
1130 SPX here we come
and then 1530! 1630! SPX 36,000!
oh boy! I am so confident about the future of the economy!
because they tell me I can be! the Fed pumping the stock market is so awesome! We'll all be rich!
42.8 billion is a very large number and much bigger than it has been. This is NOT good news. Someone should start asking: What do we produce that has any real value? Because the world doesn't seem to want much of what we make. Further, we obviously need to buy from the world, as we cannot source locally at a reasonable price. Thank goodness the FED can continue to print money or we would be broke??????
there's always a party pooper... AND TODAY, YOU ARE IT!
BETTER THEN EXPECTED MAN!
RECOVERY!
HOPE! YES WE CAN!
The trade deficit is 43 billion...
BUT IT'S BETTER THAN THE EXPECTATION!11!!11!!
The economy shed 450k jobs...
BUT IT'S BETTER THAN THE EXPECTATION!!11!!11!!
teh Capslock helps you celebrate when your low (hideous really) expectations are met.
I prefer teh oneoneoneoneone1111eleven!!11111's
You're assuming the trade deficit dropped because we exported more. Importing less due to a shift in private incomes/consumption/propensity to import has the same impact. Looks like we saw a boost coming from civilian aircraft sales and a slowdown in imports contributing to GDP on a seasonally adjusted basis. Non-seasonally adjusted, the slowdown in imports was greater than the slowdown in exports on a month-over-month basis. Year over year, the story is still the same: exports growing at a slower rate than imports, showing positive growth from 2009, but imports are off where they were from 2008 to the tune of 10%-20%, exports to the tune of ~10%.
What does this tell me? Your guess is as good as mine. If I were to form a hypothesis, I'd say that consumer de-leveraging continues, unemployment is still persistent, and we're seeing both shifts in productive capacity (services to goods) and consumption of goods (or lack thereof). But that's a long-term trend that'll play out over the course of a decade. As a short-run indicator this tells me there is continued weakness in the domestic markets as the US consumer wanes in terms of being a key driver of growth (still big, mind you, but naturally going to shift).
But I'm not an expert, just some jerk speaking when he should probably listen.
See, we don't need QE2 and we don't need another $50 billion in putting blacktop on top of the blacktop they put down 12 months ago.
Recovery Summer continues!
I give GS 25 minutes to respond and tell us what was so awful about this report, which ZH will quickly put up.
The article on deflation/inflation left out the only real strategy for dealing with death spiral deflation: increase taxes on the wealthy and spend it for them.. hell, give it away to poor people who will spend it (because they have to.)
I just realized we are living in a Monty Python sketch.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4
These unemployment numbers, they are but a scratch!
I agree, but I think it is a different sketch, hence my screen name. The economy is the parrot, Bernanke is the shop owner, Tyler is the skeptical John Cleese.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npjOSLCR2hE
it's bleeding demised!
no, it's just restin'.
respect how bbg reports the 2,000 improvement in continuing and forgets to mention that it was on the back of a worse revision
The more stocks go up, the more I'll earn cash when I do my epic short.
Uh-oh....
Looks like gold topped out yesterday.
Time to unload gold stocks and start buying bank stocks.
Dive baby dive...this level is way too rich for me to buy.
Robo - If you don't mind, the adults are trying to have a conversation.
About what? How youre paying $1200+/oz for a shiny metal?
And dont worry its merely a drop of a few points - nowhere near $1000... Yet.
About how breathtakingly stupid it is to ignore a commodity that's been used as a store of value for thousands of years, because it's "only a yellow metal".
I dont argue it has been used as a store of value, but it had its peaks and troughs. If you dont accept this, then theres no point in our discussion.
You can slow a locomotive down, but eventually, it will get where it wants to go. JPM must of had everyone at the ready for the report release, since Goldman's forecast was much to close to just be a good guess.
Fortunately, gold has a mind of its' own.
OH MY GOD! GOLD HAS PLUNGED - PLUNGED I TELL YOU - 0.3%!!!!
MY LIFE IS RUINED!!!!!!
FFS ROBO.
I'll start buying Bank stock when they start using proper mark-to-market accounting.
Interestingly silver has gone up....
I told you guys last week gold & bonds going into the toilet, great post Robo- ... ;-P
What, down -3? You need to get a grip robotrader.
Your bias is showing.
Hmm, lets just recall last time you posted an equivalent post. The Gold reversed course, after which you were nowhere to be found. Funny, that.
edit: $1259. Oops. I guess that means we can count on you to disappear from this thread?
Sarcasm????
Topped out...right...how exactly did you gain the privilege to post this drivel on this website?
Usually there are pictures of hot chicks or antelope running scared across the river banks.
True...that is his forte...perhaps he should stick to that strength.
Sorry, robo. I like your posts - but honestly your case for gold is looking like Leo's in his lust for Chinese solars..
Fear. It's just fear. Any straw to grasp in the wake of unmitigated fear.
The "Fed" banks? No thanks.
it more than the Twilght Zone its Htrae, The Bizarro World!
bad news is good news..good news is Great news...no news is made up to be good news..
didnt market ANALysts do this a few years back? over estimate bad news to horrible news so when its only really bad, its considered a plus?
A market that cheers an already beat up economy losing another 450K jobs....think about that, really think about it. We're creating the perfect storm of backward assness that will eventually wipe out our entire country. These are frightening times indeed.
wonder what historical pre/post labor claims distortions..
alex
Gold has not reached a short term top until it starts vibrating 20 to 30 dollar quick swings, than the top is in.
Yay! We suck less than a bunch of people who've been consistently wrong for going on 3-years in a row thought we sucked - so I suppose I'm supposed to go empty my HELOC and buy iPads by the pallet now, right?
Someone wake me from this Bizzaro-world nightmare.
From the Bloomberg article on this:
"For the latest reporting week, nine states didn’t file claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the federal holiday earlier this week, a Labor Department official told reporters. As a result, California and Virginia estimated their figures and the U.S. government estimated the other seven, the official said."
Now those are estimates that everyone can trust. /sarcasm
The Bureau of Making Shit Up just being true to their name and mission, of course.
Falsify me baby..Markets love lies. Another 4am future reversal and markets are sitting on alot of hot air as we celebrate mediocrity
John, you're a good guy and you contribute a great deal, but you're wrong about one thing. This isn't mediocrity, these are 450,000 jobs lost. The number of employed is decreasing and the deflation spiral continues.
Indeed. All DOL/BLS releases (and probably every other governmental entity release) should be mandated to begin with:
"Once upon a time..."
lol, awesome
Look for the revised number to come in at about 485K range.
Article Link?
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aam4GVG_ZaU0&pos=1
nice 6 handle squeeze 45 seconds before release......This is beyond ridiculous
Yes, it looks like some still have a lot "liquidity" at their disposal to "play" the markets.
Yes, there IS a lot of liquidity. The big players are sitting on their cash and probably cashing in on these bits of info.
The shorts were getting sodomized no matter what this number said....Too many followers of the Hindenberg moment running around scared stiff....There's a rhythm to the market and sometimes the news just doesn't matter.
Just amazing on how the msm (marketwatch) plays it, "Jobless claims fall 27,000".
Last week about 1/2 million people made new claims and this week about 1/2 million people made new claims.
It'll get better sooner or later there will be no jobs left to loose. What a joke....
Futures feeding frenzy. We have now retraced the entire trading range in less than 2 weeks. Amazing.
Why not, we retraced all of august in 3 days.
Crazy stuff.
Ground Control to Uncle Ben
Ground Control to Uncle Ben
Take your pills and put your helmet on
Ground Control to Uncle Ben
Commencing countdown, engines on ....
Where the hell is Larry Kudlow these days?.
I miss that good ol' 'mustard seed' idiot and all that 'goldilocks economy' shit.
He's doing the '12 Steps to Prosperity' speil now. Yeah, the AA connection is really apparent ... and troubling.
The analogy of a credit junkie grabbing the credit punch bowl and dumping on himself comes to mind.
[/sarc]
I think its getting close to roll over time
Vix sell signal a few days ago
They are normally 100 percent accurate
Dont worry it wont go on much longer, when they see no one is buying Obamas big election infrastructure building nonsense, theyll reverse the pump on a dime and leave all longs bagholders.
http://sunlightfoundation.com/clearspending/scorecard/
How Reliable is USASpending.gov?We've taken data from other federal reporting systems and compared it with the data found in USASpending.gov across three categories: Consistency, Completeness and Timeliness. How close are the reported dollar amounts to the yearly estimates? How many of the required fields are filled out in each record? And how long did it take the agency to report the money once it was allocated to a project?
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=166251
The problem is one that I identified nearly six months ago, which is that people don't count as "unemployed" in the claims data if they either give up or exhaust their extended benefits.
The latter is a very real problem as the "leading edge" of the unemployed are now rolling off those EUC programs each and every week, and this distorts the figures severely. Yes, this will drive some of them to seek work (gee, no more government cheese?) but not all will succeed, and those that don't now have no income from the government cheese or a job. This impact began roughly in June of this year and is now in "full roar", with the maximum roll-off coming sometime in the middle of 2011.
Yet the paradox is that the official "reports" do and will continue to show this development as economic improvement.
Like hell it is.
The other problem with these numbers is that in order to file for jobless benefits you must have had a job for a continual (and substantial) period of time - typically four quarters (one year) prior to being laid off. Therefore, "re-layoffs" don't count, and those who were marginally attached and then lose their job anew also don't count. They count in the real economy though. Further, if you lose your job, file, find a new job, and lose that one you don't count as a new claim - even though you're (again) unemployed.
Nonetheless, for all their flaws these figures are all we have on a weekly basis, and the market loved what it saw this morning, taking a hop north. We'll see if, once people have a bit of time to reflect on the roll-off from the benefit rolls, they continue to see things in as positive a light.
PS: As "Madman" on the forum pointed out....
Estimated eh? Hmmm....
sheep
I hope so
I ma really tired of this shit and amking me look like a twat
I have advised countless people that the market will crash
now i look like a chicken little
Once again: A change in the second derivative does not indicate a change in vector.
Oh why bother. The higher we go the harder we fall. The longer we extend, the more complete our collapse will become. To the fucking moon. Let's get the party started.
It's contract roll over in the index futures. Expect some rowing of the markets.
has this screewed the wave count?
we were lining up for a nice 3 of 3 of 3 with this being part of a c up for wave 2.
but not sure if its too high now for that count
Santelli really hyped the jobs number on CNBS this am...it was quite disappointing. Maybe he finally took the Blue Pill...
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0133093/quotes
..."
The yahoo headline.....
"New Filings for Jobless Benefits Tumble"
Yahoo!!! indeed.....
This from an "AP Economics writer"
This is all one big joke.
We live in a big joke, that's for sure. But you can ease your nerves by thinking that all these cocksuckers (AP journalists included) are about to die with the Ponzi system.
Consumer credit heading in the right direction - and now the gift of the trade deficit heading in the right direction - and its not even Christmas yet!
oh dear denninger seems to be takejn in by the so called war on terrosism
thought he knew the score there
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=166257
Updated charts:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Nice article thanks.
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