Initial Claims Come at 453K, While Prior Print Is Revised Higher, As 300K Claimants Fall Of Benefits
The Department of Lies has released its latest initial claims report: last week we saw 453,000 initial claims, meaning the economy continues to lose about 50-100 jobs a month. This was slightly better than expectations of 460,000. Yet what the market once again misses is that for the nth week in a row the previous week's claim number is revised, as always, higher, but who cares. Last week's 465K was pushed higher to 468K, essentially making this week's "improvement" a wash. Continuing claims came at 4.457MM, even as the prior week's data was stunningly revised far higher, from 4.489MM to 4.540MM. DOL indeed. And while the market focuses on completely irrelevant noise of beats by a few thousand which the BLS will certainly revise for a deterioration next week, those who no longer receive 99 weeks of max claims continues to decline: those on EUC declined by -256,536, while those on extended claims fell by -36,686.
Of course none of this matters to the algos: all they need is the slightest validation to turn the ramp signal on.
Elsewhere, the second revision to Q2 GDP was misreported to be 1.7% from 1.6% before, even as the economy is about to go negative courtesy of gridlock that will take away about 3% from annualized GDP. This time, the fudge factor was Corporate Profits which increased from 2.9%, and from a consensus of 2.9%, to 3.9%.