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Initial Claims Come at 453K, While Prior Print Is Revised Higher, As 300K Claimants Fall Of Benefits

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The Department of Lies has released its latest initial claims report: last week we saw 453,000 initial claims, meaning the economy continues to lose about 50-100 jobs a month. This was slightly better than expectations of 460,000. Yet what the market once again misses is that for the nth week in a row the previous week's claim number is revised, as always, higher, but who cares. Last week's 465K was pushed higher to 468K, essentially making this week's "improvement" a wash. Continuing claims came at 4.457MM, even as the prior week's data was stunningly revised far higher, from 4.489MM to 4.540MM. DOL indeed. And while the market focuses on completely irrelevant noise of beats by a few thousand which the BLS will certainly revise for a deterioration next week, those who no longer receive 99 weeks of max claims continues to decline: those on EUC declined by -256,536, while those on extended claims fell by -36,686.

Of course none of this matters to the algos: all they need is the slightest validation to turn the ramp signal on.

Elsewhere, the second revision to Q2 GDP was misreported to be 1.7% from 1.6% before, even as the economy is about to go negative courtesy of gridlock that will take away about 3% from annualized GDP. This time, the fudge factor was Corporate Profits which increased from 2.9%, and from a consensus of 2.9%, to 3.9%.

 

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Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:44 | 615153 godfader
godfader's picture

Sweet. That should bring the ECRI (for now) out of double dip territory shouldn't it?

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:52 | 615161 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Ecri only matters when its going positive. No one there has the balls to call recession when it's at the -10 level all summer.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:57 | 615182 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Ecri only matters when its going positive. No one there has the balls to call recession when it's at the -10 level all summer.

Interesting how it just stalled there, never getting much worse, never getting much better, sort of in limbo.

Purgatory is probably a better term for it.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:11 | 615209 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

First it was stalled by the Fed buying SPOOS, but when people started to catch on they created POMO. 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:46 | 615158 StockInsanity
StockInsanity's picture

More B.S. Backwards looking revisions. The SHEEPLE love it ! 

Zerohedge I am sure we would love to see some stats on what % of Government Numbers are getting downwardly revised in the month following them getting put out there.

Seems like every one !

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:17 | 615221 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Here you go (link):

To visualize just how ridiculous the perpetual upward bias is
at the Labor Bureau, we present a chart demonstrating the weekly jobless
claim revisions by the BLS: in a nutshell, 90%+ of the time the
bureau has revised prior claims upward, meaning it consistently strives
to create an optimistic picture at the moment, only to have it revised
it to its true, uglier state a week later when nobody cares.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:20 | 615229 fuu
fuu's picture

Best chart ever.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:35 | 615256 MarkS
MarkS's picture

So it isn't always higher...just about 93% of the time! hey, at least they're consistent...

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:11 | 615451 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

I'll take those odds.  Anyway to profit from the upwards revisions?  URS, unemployment revision swap?  Give me a pair of those rose colored glasses.

Can't wait for the 3Q GDP number as compared to the Consumer Metrics Institutes chart.  My guess is GDP comes in at around 1% and is revised down to 0-.25%.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 12:43 | 615787 trav7777
trav7777's picture

eh...they're within a few thousand here and there; nothingburger

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:46 | 615160 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

The Sept rally will pull ECRI up along with M2 spike - all clear BUY EM

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:51 | 615170 BetTheHouse
BetTheHouse's picture

These guys want Dow 11k before the end of September, and they are going to get it, no matter how they do it. 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:54 | 615176 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Like with missplacing the '.' decimal point ;) to be revised later

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:52 | 615172 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Guess we will see in December where those people went. If SNAP recipients spike we will know it wasn't to a job.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:55 | 615177 LMAO
LMAO's picture

Good news indeed!

 

The Dollar being solid as always, combined with the way Brent and other commods are gunning for the sky, this recovery surely is picking up steam.

No worries for the US consumer I guess.

LMAO

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:56 | 615179 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

....As 300K Claimants Fall Off Benefits.....

 

.....those who no longer receive 99 weeks of max claims continues to decline: those on EUC declined by -256,536, while those on extended claims fell by -36,686......

And I'm sure the White House bean and poll (number) counters are saying "good riddance" to all that dead wood. We aren't talking about humans after all, we're talking about numbers and spin and smoke with mirrors. We're talking political liability. Be gone and never darken our national doorstep again.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:10 | 615204 The Rock
The Rock's picture

+1. They are probably all terrorists anyway!

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:22 | 615226 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

+2. Or soon to be terrorists.

Call them budding terrorists waiting in the wings. I'm sure the NSA, CIA, DIA etc have their phone numbers (assuming they're still paying the phone bill) as well as their locations since they've been added to the "National Database of potential terrorists due to economic dislocation".

It's a different database than the "National Database of potential terrorists because we invaded your country and killed half your family while cruising through your neighborhood at 50 MPH with guns blazing" or the "National Database of potential terrorists because our troops cut off your father's ear or fingers as trophies".

You know, that database.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:47 | 615274 Bob
Bob's picture

+3  It's the locations (physical, forget IP, etc. addresses) that will prove to be the problem, imo, for would be terrorists/revolutionaries if/when TSHF. 

How far can anyone get from their homes without hitting the national security camera grid (ignoring cell phone tracking)?

1984 infrastructure was already laid out by, well, 1984.  Okay, 2001, particularly with the "Patriot Act."  It seems to me that it just sits waiting to be put to use.  Thank goodness that "enemies of the people" have already identified themselves in such abundantly clear fashion by pouring their hearts out on the internet. 

They can only hope, it seems to me, that unbought hackers will rebalance the equation. 

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 12:46 | 615798 trav7777
trav7777's picture

camera problems can be solved with spraypaint.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:58 | 615183 shushup
shushup's picture

All of these numbers especially GDP are stunning horrible.........So I don't understand the mindset of the futures traders acting as if this is news to rally about. Maybe they are just looking forward to todays POMO.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:21 | 615231 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Stop trying to understand something that doesn't make sense. You'll feel much better. :>)

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:58 | 615186 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Doods POMO day not a day to be short

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:59 | 615187 djsmps
djsmps's picture

I have never seen them so giddy on CNBC after a jobless report.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:00 | 615191 cdude
cdude's picture

The American standard of living is in the process of being "revised".

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:03 | 615195 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

I feel that no matter what the numbers are now it makes little or no difference. Nothing has changed, worldwide debt has a strangle hold on any real meaningful improvement in this economy. Like a 747 at 34,000 ft. over the mid Atlantic. Everybody is working on their computers, having a drink, watching a movie but the jet has only 15 minutes left of fuel. Attention passengers this is the Captain speaking!

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:05 | 615198 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

I don't know if any of you had to go jobless or worry every day if you'd still be able to support your family.

To wall St, Obama,cnbs it's all a number, a faceless number.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:09 | 615206 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Yeahm POMO Day, that's why I went long XXV yesterday! We all know what's wrong with all these shills and economy and all that, good! Now alongside bitching our hearts out we should do some trading, if the big guns can front run the FED so can we, on a lower level though but...we can! Thanks to my day trading I collect a nice extra week after week after week, POMO is BAD but it has it's good sides too :-))!

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:10 | 615208 New Revolution
New Revolution's picture

Buy back the FED for the agreed upon $450 million (FedRes Act of 1913), put it in escrow because of the pending lawsuits and criminal actions, take over the 2B2Jails, take all their gold, take back the US debt (now in half), cuts the need for the Frank/Dodd Comedy Act, re-instate Glass/Steagal, without the 2B2Jails stops all the $ flow into Congress and White House, take the FDIC savings and RTC the remaining banks, enforce treaties = a vibrant America within 6 months.   NObamanation President Barry Soetoro won't do it which is why the next two elections are so critically important.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:25 | 615238 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Elections WONT achieve it.

What was that thing about repeating something over and over but expecting a different result?

Nothing will change until we see blood in the streets.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:13 | 615213 espirit
espirit's picture

Easily contrived numbers. As one who has fallen off the "rolls" quite shy of 99 weeks entitlement as so many detractors call it, due to the requirement to work at any job for four weeks, that pays minimum wage or more than the $275 per week the State of Florida bequeaths upon you.

Just waiting for reality to become obvious when the pixie dust and kool aid runs out.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:20 | 615228 Bob
Bob's picture

I'm not following you on the requirements you describe.  Please explain further. 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:36 | 615257 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Every state has different rules for amount and duration of benefits.  The widely touted 99 weeks is a max, not a min. 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:46 | 615381 espirit
espirit's picture

Thanks K. To be eligible for emergency benefits here in FL, you must have employment within that specified period, as long as it meets the criteria minimum of 4 weeks then EC can continue up to 99 weeks.

How humiliating can it be to search for jobs that don't exist. All the good job Wally World greater and Mickey D positions are filled with graduate degree holders.

Worked hard to pay off my home and can't sell it for what it cost to build... and no - it's not a McMansion.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:06 | 615427 Bob
Bob's picture

Very interesting.  Got a link to the whole UIC program explanation?

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 12:34 | 615750 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Au contraire. With the right attitude, looking for a job that doesn't exist to satisfy the unemployment benefit rules can be rather stress-free. Five minutes on Monster.com, no jobs for me, back to playing Xbox.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:16 | 615219 No Mas
No Mas's picture

Didn't this site post an article where some guy was now seriously bearish just yesterday?

Too funny.  What I don't understand is how anyone can go against a market they know to be propped up by an entity that will print and buy into perpituity.  How can they expect to win that war?

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:26 | 615242 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Allow me to summarize your post: "Don't fight the FED"

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:28 | 615247 No Mas
No Mas's picture

More like "Why fight the Fed?"

Who thinks they can win at that game?

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:27 | 615243 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

If this currency bill passes, I don't give a crap how much ink and paper the Fed has 'cause it ain't gonna matter.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:29 | 615251 No Mas
No Mas's picture

The currency bill will not pass.

I am very much a ZH'er in one respect; I believe all of the system to be corrupt beyond my comprehension.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:42 | 615272 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

We'll see. Till then, we sit at the resistance points on the averages and are back near the beginning of the Flash Crash. We'll see if reality finally sets in and we sell off or Fed/POMO continues to win the day and this sham of a market continues higher. (In which case I will owe Robo an apology)

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:53 | 615289 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Dodd has said the Senate will not even look at the current bill until after the election.

The only reason that bill saw the light of day was for idiot politicians to go back to their constituents and say "look we did something about the economy".

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:58 | 615299 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

I'm not so sure... they have been calling for something to be done on China's currency for a while now. (Krugman, Geithner, Schumer etc. ) I think there is still a chance they make a run at this.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:59 | 615300 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Who was it here in the comment section who said he's decided to add to the end of each politicians verbal diarrhea the phrase "because I want to be (re)elected".

I actually tried it last night while reading the "news" and it brings some fun back to the mainstream media.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:59 | 615302 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

It was Cougar

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:13 | 615885 subqtaneous
subqtaneous's picture

Ahem, it was cougar . . . because I want to be reelected in November.

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 16:34 | 616571 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You're getting under my skin...  (fur?)

;-)

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:39 | 615264 Sweetbread
Sweetbread's picture

"last week we saw 453,000 initial claims, meaning the economy continues to lose about 50-100 jobs a month"

How does is come out to only 50-100 jobs? I don't understand that bit.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:22 | 615503 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I believe the average loss is 350k anyway.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 12:35 | 615753 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I think they assume that 350K jobs are being created. So 450K loss + 350K created = 100K net loss

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 15:06 | 616297 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

I took it that Tyler was using his sarcasm again.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:40 | 615265 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Quality trumps quantity.  There will be some seasonal retail work soon.  The chimps at CNBC will go gaga over that.  Look at the decline in social security receipts.  That's where the action is.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:57 | 615296 unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

if the spain gdp thing is true, how much

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:58 | 615298 unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

if the spain gdp thing is true, how much different is the unemployment revisions..a lie is a lie is a lie

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:03 | 615311 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

Remain calm, all is well ! The recession ended a year ago !   We have the numbers to prove it !   Vote me back in !      sarcasm off.   What a freakin disaster

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:58 | 615373 fleur de lis
fleur de lis's picture

Since most if not all the trouble seems to originate with a clique of miscreants who are positioned to pull the strings and then duck, and leave everyone else to sift through and clean up the mess until next time, let's at least separate the producers from the grifters by referring to them as professional bankers and central bankers. Terms such as "banksters" --although very real--only serves to taint the honest bankers and cover for the sociopaths. Just a thought.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:49 | 615391 Everyman
Everyman's picture

I sent this into the DOL BLS about 3 weeks ago to the OIG:

 

Dear XXXXXXXXXX:

 

I am acknowledging receipt of your September 10, 2010, e-mail complaint to the Office of the Inspector General (OIG) for the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL).  Your complaint alleges deception in reporting unemployment statistics by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the DOL. 

 

The OIG primarily investigates allegations of fraud, waste, or abuse in DOL programs and operations.  These investigations may involve alleged violations of criminal statutes, alleged violations of civil or administrative statutes or regulations, or allegations of serious and systemic waste or abuse in DOL programs. 

 

Based upon the review by OIG officials, it was determined that your concerns would be more appropriately addressed by management officials of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the DOL.   Therefore, I have referred your complaint to the BLS for further review and any action deemed appropriate.  If you have any questions concerning this referral, you may contact the BLS at: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2 Massachusetts Avenue, N.E. , Postal Square Building , Room 4060, Washington , D.C. 20212 .  The BLS will provide a response to you upon completion of the review.

 

Thank you for bringing this matter to our attention. 

 

Sincerely,

 

 

 

Gwen M. Stroud

Complaint Analysis Officer

 

So they sent it to BLS for the solution!

 

 

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:38 | 615570 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

Its all a joke.  Track down and talk to folks that lived in Soviet era Russia; bread lines, vodka bottles without stoppers, the good apartment with a window toward the Sun.  That is where we are going. A scavenger economy.

Sat, 10/09/2010 - 09:40 | 637571 senthil456
senthil456's picture

There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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