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Initial Claims Come In At 454K, On Expectations Of 460K, Drop From 475K, EUC Plunge By 368K As Benefits Expire
Initial claims dropped to 454k from 475k. Continuing claims drop by 224,000 to 4,413,000. This is as expected courtesy of the end (for now) in unemployment benefits for many cohorts of unemployed. Of course, with claims over 400k it means continued losses in the broader work force. Also, Not Seasonally Adjusted Claims Rise by 22,560. Most notably, this has impacted EUC claims which plunged by 368k to 4,147,551 for the week ended June 19. Look for EUC to drop by up to a million as the delayed EUC data thru the end of June trickles in.
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Who was talking about a good short entry yesterday?
I didn't, but anything from 1079 to 1110 sounds good to me. SPY Sept 92 puts are a bargain.
Yea but the NSA numbers jumped by 22,560 to 463,560 with only 4 states seeing a decline and 10 states seeing and increase (of 1000 or more). Seasonally adjusted trying to smooth the picture.
Who cares? 454K is "better 'n expected"! Maybe we can rally 600 points today on this grand news?
The word farce is the first thing that comes to mind...
It doesn't seem to matter, they seem to be able to goose the market on the farce, believing that perception will lead to reality. They've got some really good cool-aid.
Here is a good primer on 'Magick'
http://www.disinfo.com/2010/07/sex-magick-revisited/
Unfortunately, this cool-aid is going to give everyone a huge hangover.
Your avatar is Paul circa 1985, right? I remember that old office.
Fat Finger knows best.
Guess we'll see another 300 point rally on that.
Good times.
Should be about eight or ten banks seized tommorrow, none last week.
July is when auto firms shutdown plants. Seasonal adjustment reflects that. GM is not closing this year. Seasonally adjusted number will be lower because of this. It is not a real number.
Someone might want to point this out to shemale MCC.
Think there was any pressure on Government Motors to keep those folks working and out of the numbers being reported?
Obama and Co wouldn't do that, would they?
Believe it or not...I know it will be nearly impossible to believe...Steve LIESman was trying to make this point this morning...he was actually saying given that July is a horrendous month for seasonal adjustments that this probably wasn't as bullish as all those thought.
Yeah, I heard him, too. He must not be his normal self this am.
That's one shemale I want to get caught with.
Damn it!
Like most everyone here, I was hoping for knee-buckling bad news so the market would crash. Nothing would make me happier than if unemployment took a surprising turn for the worse, and it started raining pianos on this country.
We need to kick Obama back to Kenya, and return the White House to its rightful owners -the Republicans!
Actually, I hope that everybody here would hope for a good claims number, but expect one not so good. Short?
Sorry to disappoint you, Commander. A shockingly large number of people here want everything to unravel, myself included. Politically speaking, there is nothing more effective than an apocalypse to anesthetize everyone from the shocking incompetence of the prior Republican administration.
Red Neck Repugnicant, you can take your league-licensed giant-foam we're number one fingers and shove them up your ass. Red Team, Blue Team, it doesn't matter, as long as The League stays in control with anti-trust exclusion and their own TV networks, and I am not talking about sports.
Hedge, I don't know about foam, but RNR seems to be suffering from some deep impaction. I suggest a colonic.
Not me. If that were to occur, it's just masking just how bad things really are fundamentally.
We need the honest to God truth about what is not working, so that we can get government out of the way and let the free markets work.
The more government tampers, and the more it seems that, well, it just may be working, the more the dumb asses want to tamper.
Well. I'm half expecting to see Australia raise rates again to keep capital from fleeing. They took it hard in the great depression. Harder than anyone else and they will take it even harder this time. Being entangled in the pan asian trade group will help them a ton but it's going to be brutal because as soon as europe or usa locks up they'll lock up.
I would much rather see fewer people suffer than worry about politics. I don't care for the president...but I'm also not so sure he is really running things anyway..just a figurehead.
@papaswamp
Your post is very reasonable and logical, however the frivolous, nauseating battle between Republicans and Democrats is very much the centerpiece of politics in America. For proof of that, just read most of the daily comments on this forum. Undeniably, the comments are always anti-Obama, with a distinctively disturbing twist: an overly eager, nearly desperate desire to see Obama fail. And why might you ask? Because after the presidency of Bush, the Republicans looked liked incompetent morons.
Did you inherit your season tickets from a relative, or did you have to wait to make it to the top of the waiting list?
moved
So you bought into the false dichotomy of Red vs Blue, Dem vs Repub?
Same bad penny. Heads they win, tails you lose.
stop trolling, ur tiresome whether ur lefty scum or righty scum we don't care...get it nobody here cares except ur dupes/doppels...
to reiterate, nobody cares = take u and ur unwarrented self-importance back to Yahoo.
again, nobody cares
7/03/10 463560 Total Employed 139.1 million
7/04/09 581145 139.8 mill
Notice a year ago...higher UE but also larger size of those employed. Now we have a lower UE number but the total number of employed has also declined even though in a year the number of new workers should be on the order of 1.5 million.
NSA is ugly and I'm not shocked to see an improvement. Until we see the number closer to 350K there is no economic expansion or serious job creation happening.
Agreed. They're selling hope, not reality. For those who wish to believe that good times are around the corner, anything but crushing bad news is good news.
Denial doesn't require facts and figures. In practice, facts and figures are the last thing you want when in denial because they are harder to explain away or ignore. The nebulous region these "numbers" place us in is perfect for the can kickers.
Europe isn't running cause of this... Still poor follow through. Also, lousy movement in /ES volume
http://imgsrv.gocomics.com/dim/?fh=b57dfb212c080a716f0e288fce186841&w=750.0
all these numbers make me dizzy. i think anecdotal stuff is much better. the peeps i know that are looking for a job can't get one. the ones that have a job are a-okay, for now. ny city seems pretty good. just sayin'
Talk about shuffling chairs on the Titanic....were the REAL unemployment numbers published, U6 for example, we would see no significant change. We are headed into a double dip ... actually we are still mired in depression, but many americans still believe in hope and change.
And this is the employment scenario at 3% growth.
What sort of numbers do they expect with forecasts of 2.5% growth for the rest of this year and 2011?
Better employment and more hiring? Exactly how does that work...slower economy means more folks being hired?
Better than expected. As expected yesterday by the market's downtick-less rally.
The market really doesn't give a shit about those poor slobs filing first time claims, and anyway, it's "only" 454K this week. The decline in continuing claims is good...really good news...because the employed don't bother to stop and think that the reason for it is the exhaustion of compensation eligibility.
Since the unemployed are probably not invested in the market anyway, their demise is immaterial and irrelevant, and those still in possession of a job---especially in finance---want to get in on the "recovery" evidenced by "only" 454K new claims two years and $23 trillion into the temporary blip formerly known as the financial crisis.
Callous disregard and self-interest, plus low volume, bot-driven trading, could carry this market back toward 1150-1200 S&P. Yes, it will all end badly someday, but not today, not this week, and probably not through earnings season, as earnings will be whatever the market needs them to be.
As I write this, every single stock on my screen is green pre-market. It doesn't make sense, but it doesn't have to make sense. When 454K is viewed as good and gets cheers from the undeservedly employed talking breasts at CNBC, common sense can be mothballed along with such trite things as compassion and empathy.
Couldn't agree more.
Spot-on.
Pretty soon almost everyone on EUC will have exhausted their benefits and the "official" UE rate will probably drop to about 2%. The market will rocket to the moon as a result.
And the painful reality will be that less people will be employed then than are today.
Facts don't matter, reality doesn't matter. It's all Hopium all the time with these bastards now.
i respectfully disagree. /tin foil hat on now/ once you see that the entire system is run by illuminati cultists who worship the pagan sky, you may consider things like the full solar eclipse occuring over the weekend (combined with the massive hangover and return to shit life that accompanies the end of the world cup bread and circuses), and realize that the next big leg down will occur monday...
divergence everywhere, this is short squeeze on the upside, a false buy signal to those in cash, a fear/greed teaser...
we will live in a different world by tuesday.
Risks to global recovery have risen sharply: IMF
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Risks-to-world-recovery-have-cnnm-3746958517.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
It's party time.
Really makes one wonder what type of circle-jerk think group comes up with stuff and how - with no reprocussions for being dead wrong / not seeing the 900lb gorilla in the room (in this case a whole herd of them). As far as I am concerned, all data / forecasts of this type are propaganda, fiction, biased opinion or otherwise junk. The sheer magnitude of the systemic risk in the global economy renders all forecasts moot. We are now on a paycheck-to-paycheck basis hoping something critical doesn't break anytime soon - period.
Yup, and if things are so good, why the need to hold BoE and ECB rates at their all time lows (rhetorical!)?
DavidC
BSB sees no signs of inflation; he has proven himself omniscient; we are living in economic Shangri-la.
Prestidigiflation works.
Anything below very bad is the new good. This reports should be made like condom sizes: large, XL, XXL, so that everybody can feel good about themselves when they buy a pack of at least large size condoms.
Is it just me or is /ES not looking that strong so far this morning? Meanwhile, gold is sneaking above 1200 again.
How come no one is mentioning the fact that last week was right before a Holiday? Who fires someone before the 4th of July? And with EUC dropping by 368K that means people are rolling off the 99 weeks.
High volume during downtrends, low volume on vertical meltups. Bots have worked out when shorts are out of gas poking here, prodding there. Then in a short time they attack. With a market comprised of retail sellers and shorties (buying to cover) vs super bots, you have trading like we presently do.
Soooooo.... to profit, sell rallies when there is activity and volume... And buy all up and down ticks when the market is listless. Listlessness is to a bot what moisture is to mildew.
Does somebody know what happened to ETF TZA?? Yesterday it was trading at 8, now it is trading at 40, was there a reverse split or just another market craziness??
Yes reverse split
Jon Stewart on Unemployment with guest appearance from???? Brilliant!!!
http://www.bing.com/videos/watch/video/the-daily-show-americas-got-nothing/17vwzngzt
Lets celebrate before the revised number comes out.
FED TO THE RESCUE?
(Huffpo top link/headline)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/07/AR201007...
.........................
Fed leaders are weighing modest steps that could offer more support for economic activity at a time when their target for short-term interest rates is already near zero.
[Modest, my ass, that is a well hung Fed implement that's coming right for the middle class. Here come's the savior for the corporations, the wealthy, and the connected; at the expense of everyone else.]
But weak economic reports, the debt crisis in Europe and faltering financial markets have led them to conclude that the risks of the recovery losing steam have increased.
[AKA The shit they keep trying to bury keeps popping up, and they're having trouble with containment.]
"If the economic situation changes, policy should react," James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said in an interview Wednesday. "You shouldn't sit on your hands. . . . I think there's plenty more we could do if we had to."
[We don't know what the fuck to do. We are totally reactionary at this point. We see a gopher, we whack it, simple as that. We could totally do more if we had to, like get a bigger mallet, until the mallet is so big you break the gopher pounding machine....]
Their trial balloons for a fix....
1. ZIRP....not just for an extended period...Forever.
[Here banksters and corp dictators have as much free money as you want, lend it out to the schmucks at whatever rate you want...]
2. ...cut the interest rate paid to banks for extra money they keep on reserve at the Fed from 0.25 percent to zero.
[Not only is the money we're giving you free at 0%, you don't even have to put a down payment for that 0% money, you can just have it Mr Banker and Mr Corporation. Why don't you go do something useful with that money like gamble it or buy yourself a politician/political party.]
3. ...buy enough new mortgage securities to replace those on the Fed balance sheet that are paid off as people take advantage of low interest rates to refinance.
[Ah yes, let's bail out the investors who took risk buying risky assets. Don't bother with the serf, he's just an asset, hopefully. No we could never think of actually buying the liens out clear for the homeowners, no no, just the investors. God save the investors.]
4. Some economists have encouraged the Fed to launch a new asset-purchase program....Treasury bonds, mortgage securities, and other long-term assets.
[Some economists.... We're looking at you Krugman, you little rat fink, and you too Summers. No need for anonimity here.]
All that said, Fed officials do not rule out launching a major new asset-purchase program. Rather, they say they would consider one only if their basic forecast -- of continued steady expansion in the economy -- proves to be wrong.
[We'll do WHATEVER we have to do to keep us rich and in power, and you on the treadmill, got it?]
F**K THE FED!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6Fpoebz2LE
Interesting, thanks for the post.
Even after their massive investment in real estate debt, did the FED lose the battle on housing price deflation?
The FED temporarily pulled ahead risky demand fueled by access to government backed loans.
At this point in time, I think it is disingenous to suggest that the FED supports the economy directly. The economy and the USD are unimportant to the FED. Although if you look at the FED tools, it is pure academic folly to think they can actually achive their mandate of max employment and price stability.
The FED low rates benefit those who have direct access to them and can make money off of the spread.
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Basically, the economists are calling for the FED to QE2, but we know that the FED actions thus far have only helped the big banks.
How will the same failed FED policies address the economic problems?
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Take a look at the latest FED balance sheet:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/
It is interesting to see the limited exposure to bills relative to issuance. Obviously, the all out effort has been to control the 10Y rate.
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So if we read between the lines, the FED believes it can control markets through its language. We shall see. Sometimes the fundamentals just get in your way.
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Without panic crisis to fuel some outrageous stimulus bill, the FED has hit a political dead zone.
Mark Beck
To the powers that be:
Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help
In this time
Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help
Chant it out and say
Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help
Can't you hear that
Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help
If you beg your neighbour bail and you ask to take it to you
Don't even like to see you stretch your neck across the fences, begging a little salt
And when Babylon day my friend
All your disgraces are all gone out on the street
so Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help
It's medicine talk I say
Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help
It's dangerous now
Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help
Want me tell you something
Once there was a Cricket and there was a set of Ants
The Cricket loved to play his fiddle in summertime and sing
And then it start to rain, Cricket run to the Ants
And say, "Ants may I have some food"
Ant say, "Cricket, where were you during summer and spring"
He say, "Ant, I was playing my romantic fiddle and songs"
He say, "Cricket, now won't you listen to me, won't you go back and play your fiddle and sing so man"
Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help
Have your own things
Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help
Jah Jah know it all
Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help
Begging alone can't do
Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help
Jah RasTafarI see it all.
It's a serious thing.
Be not like the foolish virgins
Who took oil in their lamps
Yet none in there lousy vessels
And decide to trod to Canaan land
And when their oils gone out
They turn to the wise virgin and say
May I have some of your oil
to throw in my lamp to meet the bridegroom
Wise one say to them say
go ye rather to them that sell and buy for yourself
and when they turn back they were all gone out late
and could never ever ever see the bridegroom at all.
so Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help
His clothes stuck in a bracket
Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help
Mek water can boil, come (?skin?)
Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help
beggy beggy licky lick him
Mind who you run to brother fe go beg for help
-Joseph Hill
Out of the last 20 numbers, 14 were revised up...
ABC
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