This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Initial Claims Come At 473K, On Expectations Of 490K, Previous Revised To 504K From 500K
Futures spike immediately as the economy is now losing just around 73k jobs per month instead of the expected 100k, truly a miraculous result. Continuing claims come at 4,456k on expectations of 4,496k, as yet again more unemployed move to the extended ranks: extended rise by 102k and EUC by just under 200k. The US transition to a welfare state continues 300k jobless at a time, and 2.1 million (in EUC + Extended) since July 9.
»
- 5534 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Marching Towards a Yo-Yo Depression
The Obamassiah is a failed god.....
The Obamassiah is a failed god.....
His puppet master would strongly disagree.
Is anybody surprised? No way the gov't would release a poor number after the pummelling the market has taken over the last week.
reality check: this was a poor number
Well look at that, last week's 500k was a bit below actual. I guess whole round numbers are favored. Look for 473 to be matched to 500 perhaps?
From the other side of the pond, here things are good. Loving the USD rate im getting on EUR.
They (The Department for Making Shit Up) had to give the eggheads out in "The Hole" something to talk about in between bedding moose and shearing sheep.
Skynet has decided to phuck shorts.
Maybe this will reverse the last few days action in silver so I can get me some (more).
I'm right there with ya!
Let's hope employment finds a plateau
And that it's not the right shoulder of a H&S formation.
All the improvement probably came from extra people they needed to massage the figures. Probably be revised worse next time.
Watch for this number to be revised upwards as well.
Economy still losing jobs and there is something "buying" equities. UFB. Or maybe it's just nervous shorts covering. Either way, the liars and their enablers (looking at you CNBS) have yet another reprieve from the gallows.
CNBS = C No Bull Shit or
CNBS = Constant Nagging Bull Shit
?
@Young
CNBS = Cunts-n-Boobs for Sale
winner...
The bankster program will continue to manipulate these markets in the stratosphere until the global economy is 100% DEAD
Until the economy for the NON-ELITE is 100% dead and the elites are so fucking absurdly wealthy that they don't need to care.
I think it gets a point when they dont care so much about "money" and they care more about power. They like to have us working for them. Its not so much about taking things from us. I think they like ruling us and that is what they want.
No recovery needed. Just better than expected numbers.
+1
I love the immediate 50 point jacking in the DOW nano-seconds after the glorious news of a 480k print and upward revised mushroom-cloud print last week.
This shit is fucking worthless.
They are going to pump the living hell out of the market again.
Yep - you know SPG is gonna crank 5%
Ahhhh, yes, the REITs...my mortal enemy.
Why would you suggest a meager 5% pop? Clearly SPG is massively undervalued in this declining environment.
Agreed on the DOW jump. Funny how bad news usually results in a "step-down, halt" or cascading effect, whereas 'good' (but still bad) news can produce a one-tick, 50-point pop.
The number is leaked a few days before. Just watch the futures the night before.
Now soliciting for names for the Fall recovery.......
So a week of crappy data and the market sell-off about 1% per day (on average - heck, it closed UP yesterday). But one not-entirely-dreadful datapoint and it's going to be a 2-3 percent rout for the bulls.
Welcome to the "free" market, 2010 Chicago Deep-Dish version.
Closed most of my shorts yesterday as i could see accumulation by the smart (cough cough insider) money in the markets. Now waiting until the bounce tops out (and has finished squeezing the 'johnny come lately' shorts) to pile back on those shorts at a better price.
Please, no anchovies on my half.
There's no doubt that there will be several attempts to pump this market again. But it's becoming obvious even to the Economic Fantasy Game players that the air's coming out of this puppy and the trend is to sell the blips. Everyone's pulling down forward GDP numbers and eventually they'll do the same with the S&P 500 (and individual company) numbers.
Patience grasshopper.
Heh - I'm a curious spectator watching from the sidelines, my good sir. I've got all the time in the universe to sit back and watch the world die.
Unfortunately our brand of cancer isn't terminal, just extremely painful and long lasting. The agony we're headed into will make today seem like the good old days.
We all understand that most will either do nothing or will pile on to take advantage of the chaos. The true test of the human soul will be to see how many stand up and demand to be counted because it needs to be done, not because they wish to walk in harms way.
Well said.
I guess Ben and Timmah enjoy blowing smoke up each others ass, its not fooling anyone else! And they better watch the pumping because if one big nerverous fund decides to use the pump as their dump, the FED boys will be pulling back a stump instead of tricky fingers!
Not sure why the absolute result has become meaningless and everything is gauged vis-à-vis expectations. Call it grading on a curve, leaping over an obstacle 6 inches off the ground, we suck less than people thought or less than other people, blah blah blah.
-500,000 = bad
-495,000 = bad
-473,000 = bad
-150,000 = good?
This is as good a place as any to ask a Q that has been bugging me.
"They" say that anywhere between 300.000 to 400,000 per week would indicate "stability" - dare I infer normalcy - because there is that much "churn" in employment.
OKAY - I get it that there is churn and that people may change jobs except that a voluntary change of jobs and you are not supposed to be able to claim unemployment.
So wouldn't a 300-400K print still indicate layoffs/terminations?
Missing something or maybe I just keep yacking up the Kool-Aid they are serving.
Pete
I keep reading and hearing about how everyone has a "plan". A survival plan of some kind. And, it seems that all these "plans" are painted with "I am a winner" and when the dust settles I will be standing. Details are sketchy.
Is everyone on CRACK? Can anyone honestly believe that they have the power and ability to survive 'mass disruption' in civilization? I don't see or hear any answers, just promises and no details from any one. I hear and see ordinary people talking of and preparing for 'something' that 99% can't even contemplate...as if a few days or weeks later the worst would be over and they are 'standing'.
Human beings seem to be the only species able to knowing commit suicide (take cigarettes for example). Is that what everyone is subconsciously is thinking, 'this is the end' and so I will play along but do it my way.
If any of the events that tossed about by readers here and on many sites, and the talking heads, come to pass then civilization is over. OVER!....And no one seems to be interested, really really interested in keeping Humpty Dumpty from falling off the wall.
When the unemployment checks stop flowing because jobs aren't flowing, the party will begin. And, frankly, I am scared to death.
And, frankly, I am scared to death.
You'd be a fool to not be.
The end of this party is going to suck. Out loud. Unequivocally.
I agree! 3rd world nations wont have it so rough, theyre used to living in a mud hut and eating rocks. But the Great American Couchpotato who freaks when the cable blinks out for a minute...imagine this country in a food crisis and banks with the doors locked! Most people in this country dont even have 2 days worth of food I read.
Oh come on, during the 2003 week-long blackout things were just fine and dandy. Believe it or not humans can live without internet and cable.
Unless it's 106 or 20 below. Kind of like is getting more and more common lately.
spot on old boy! when the end comes, only Jack and pain killers will fog it over so we can sleep into oblivion.
The US has a lot of open land which a true survivalist can live off of. Might have to get used to a diet of cockroaches, grasshoppers, and pine cones, but it's definitely possible to survive.
Hyperinflation is about the worst case scenario, and the worst part of the fallout fallout from an event of that magnitude (or even from a complete collapse of civil society) will last for about two years. You can keep two years worth of food in your closet.
But yeah, society isn't going to collapse the way it did after the Fall of Rome, for the simple reason that EVERYONE on Earth has tasted the fruits of civilization, and not many want to give it up. There are too many guns here for us to be overrun by some new military power (like the Zetas, which are becoming a de facto government in Northern Mexico--the closest thing we have to modern day barbarians). We have access to too much information and knowledge. Mass production still exists, even if it doesn't exist on the scale that it once did. So long as that knowledge outlasts this government, there will be a light at the end of the tunnel.
Now, the time period following those two years of anarchy isn't going to be all sunshine and roses, but there is unlikely to be mass starvation after that point.
I have the power to kill a yak from 300 yards away, with MIND BULLETS! I ain' scurred.
Morning after
Sun rises
etc...
Being scared to death is the first step, really. Now, get your shit together! You're right that humans can be absurd and masochistic; they can also survive for an incredible amount of time through sheer determination and guts. Which do you want to be?
Keep your head up and your powder dry. Be comforted that there are folks out there who are paying attention and have no intention on going quietly.
As for solutions: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morgan-stanley-says-governments-will-default-only-question-how#comment-543043
It's a start, and a good one at that.
I agree with you on all of that, except that I see there to be varying degrees of "over", and the longer the banksters continue to interfere in markets as they've been doing, the closer to "totally over" is peace and the prospect of future prosperity. Sharecropper nation, sharecropper world with a lot of mad max horror.
"Over" is when those payroll report "numbers" march on Wall Street to "take" their money back... popcorn please!
I think an unappreciated dynamic is "going down with the ship". It's the idea that if you still have your job and can still maintain your current lifestyle, do it as long as you can until you can't. The truth is the debt-based ponzi system has held together for 30 years, why not a few years more? A lot of people like to make Rome comparisons. The Roman Empire lasted for 200 years after the crisis of the 3rd century.
You need to realize that this is the Internet and any relationship to actual reality is merely coincidental. There are A LOT of moonbats out there. I attribute this situation to a certain generation that is aging (badly) and cannot comprehend its collective demise that is not too far down the road. You see this pending demise all over our culture in the inability to think outside of the box. Witness retro Dodges and Fords, totally unoriginal movie remakes, the absolute death of pop music, dumb government policies as far as the eye can see, and on and on. Buying gold and hoarding food is just plain stupid, but what can you expect from people unwilling to deal with reality?
What you have to come to understand is that is they who are running out of time, not all of us. Get my drift? All we have to do is make sure those fuckers don't get us all killed (WWIII) in the process. We'll be done with them in another 20 years and all you will hav e to worry about is their remnants driving on the roads.
ROFL! Good luck getting to the other side with no food supplies and no means to purchase them!
I live near a neighborhood bar. You know, the kind that doesn't want frat boys hooting and making noise, just people who want to relax and get damn drunk as fast as they please.
I am going to pull a "Shaun of the Dead" and head over to my version of "The Winchester" if things go nuts. At least I'll be able to fry up some burgers and have some booze while the maelstrom rages around me. Oh, one good thing - they have bars on the windows, so somewhat defendable.
That is about all I can do. If anyone shows up shouting 'zerohedge' - I'll let you in, no questions asked.
Maybe it's time to go long on TrueBlue.
whta a croc of shit
how long can this go on
three times this year the market has almost crashed to reality and then they do a stick save pump like this
I'm sick of this
Over the past 2 years we sure are accumulating alot of folks who once their benefits end are not going to be contributing much cash to the economy. People not paying credit bills, mortgages, cellphone bills and not going out to eat. Sure seems like A recipe for more job loss as corps trim even more fat.
Prepare for relentess 401k withdrawal.
Well is this a step in the right direction partner,
Over 700,000 cable subscriptions have been cancelled.
http://arstechnica.com/media/news/2010/08/subscriber-growth-suddenly-sto...
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129431229
Thanks for the link. Then it is more dire than we think since cable would be the last to go. I'm fully expecting cable subsidies soon. We cannot have the angry disgruntled unemployed seeking out sites like ZeroHedge to answer their confusion.
In all honesty cable is entirely too expensive and it will need to come down by about 40% in the next 2 Years.
Chart: ES
The morning pop only serves to define the upper boundary of a falling channel, one steeper than the previous trend. Be short, be happy.
http://www.screencast.com/t/NTA3ZmUwNz
Well at least all the unemployed can still get NetFlix movies in their mailbox
I put the chart up on this site yeaterday. the number has nothing to do with price action in the market. that's why I covered my shorts yeaterday.
Unemployment is Good Bitchez ! 73k instead of 100k a month is just amazing ! And everybody goes crazy !
may be they will ramp it up today ...( already gone 1.1% in a vertical climb) ....but i still believe what John Taylor said ...stocks are going down from here
yeah they will try to ramp it today but they will fail. anyone buying stocks because there were "only" 473K IC's is a douche. They will try to get it higher ahead of tomorrows GDP revision because that is going to be a shocker. any bounce here will be a good oportunity to add to shorts
futures are already selling off into it. weird
what if the revised GDP number comes in closer to 2.4% than to 1%... I wouldn't be surprised after the pumping seen today. As others have said, "good" news makes indices shoot through the roof, and bad news, well, gives a fake low volume sell-off and becomes the next bear trap.
This is possible because the level we're at now is fake itself, this market is not at 1050 for real, it is kept there by big money, by a recovery fata-morgana. Makes people forget we're in the desert...
No ones 'goin crazy', just a computer pump. Lets see how long they can keep juggling the bowling balls and chainsaws before some big fund dumps on the pump. Sell the pop, their room to pump isnt big they have to keep it in a tight range.
Skynet is hungry for short covering. Skynet very angry about media fear mongering. Skynet will destroy media bullsh1t. Home run, today.
I dont know why everyone assumes shorts are just sitting there ripe for the shearing. The wisdom is shorts are dumb and longs are the geniuses? Seems to me lately anyone daring to be long has taken the far greater haircut.
I hear ZH is hiring, was that in the numbers?
If I could pay off my house... I would seriously think about joining the welfare state - sit on my but and let other pay my bills - how cool!
I guess even when armageddon arrives the markets will still go up
with the better than expected news that only 5 billion people were killed in all the nukes rather than the expected 6
Yes, one morning soon nukes will go off in 3 major US cities, and CNBC will have on an analcyst who will say it came in under their worst-case expectations of 5 US cities nuked. Ramp futures on the news.
You can almost hear TPTB laughing when this report came out. Knowing it is still horrible, they finally "beat expectations". Sound the trumpets, fire up the Crays, the dow will soar and ZH readers will bitch, bitch, bitch.
When will this dog just die?!?!?!!?!!
No need to be scared to death. No one knows for sure what event will occur or when or if it will happen. Could be a financial problem, a power failure, illness, but it may be something that will prevent you from getting to the store, the bank and the gas station. Just prepare. Keep the cars full of gas, have a few weeks' worth of cash in the house. Have some flashlights and batteries. I have some oil lamps in the house. Have one extra of everything you use on a daily basis - one extra bag of coffee, an extra package of tp, etc. Have enough food in the house to last a week or two, some of it non-perishable in case you lose refrigeration. No need to go right out and do everything today - just pick up a few extra things every time you're at the store. When you know that you and your family will be fine even if you're off the grid for awhile, you might sleep a little better.
+10
http://www.economicnoise.com/2010/08/24/a-survival-guide/
http://www.green-trust.org/freebooks/Preparedness.pdf
Go to page 4 in the .pdf above
http://www.survival-spot.com/survival-blog/argentina-collapse/
http://urbanhomestead.org/
http://www.polyfacefarms.com/
http://www.fema.gov/areyouready/appendix_b.shtm
http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product.aspx?Prodid=11487214&Ne=4000000&eCa...
justtotaketheedgeoff
you forgot weed and alcohol, DUDE†
I've never understood why unemployment claims of 450,000-500,000 per week don't add up when the BLS releases its monthly figures on the first Friday. How can we have about 2 million new claims monthly but the BLS reports a net increase in jobs at the end of the month? I wondered this for years. Anyone, can you please help me out with this seeming paradox? Thanks!
The same way the CPI says we have no inflation, yet prices keep rising.
watch the 473k get revised to 499k next week. They wouldn't possibly put out a real number on this today.
473k, I don't believe a word of it.
I dont believe a word of what the DOMSU (Dept of Makin Shit Up) says either....whatever they say I hit cntrl alt del.
A lot of clueless people here on this site :
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=av5dkgUcgnXc&pos=3
With you being at the top of the list. Congratulations!
Excerpts from Mish today:
10 Leading Retailers Close Stores; Exocus of Small Retailers Amidst Signs of “Free Rent”; 700,000 Drop Cable TV Subscriptions
… Subscriber Growth Suddenly Stops…The number of cable subscribers dropped by 711,000, according to SNL Kagan, with six out of eight cable providers reporting their worst quarterly subscriber losses to date. Other parts of the industry were able to add just enough subscribers to make the net loss more like 216,000.
… Exodus of Small Retailers Amidst Signs of "Free Rent"… all along the Monroe Street-Talmadge Avenue corridor - the Toledo area's crown jewel of commercial real estate - times are tough. "For Lease" signs have proliferated on Monroe from Sylvania Avenue past Talmadge to the Target shopping plaza. Some of the signs feature a shocking indicator of hard times: "Free rent." … Several large signature properties - the closed Circuit City store and former Lone Star Steakhouse on Monroe, and the Smokey Bones Barbeque and Grill on Talmadge - have remained closed for more than 18 months.
…Daily Finance reports 10 Big Retailers Closing Stores : Both Saks (SKS) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) said they were closing stores in several parts of the country. Meanwhile, other stores like the struggling Blockbuster video rental chain, continue to slash stores by the dozens. American Apparel (APP), which is close to defaulting on its loans, just may be next. …
Retail Closing Scorecard
Saks 5: …plans to close two Saks Fifth Avenue stores in Plano, Texas, and Mission Viejo, Calif. ..in addition to stores in San Diego, Portland, Ore., and Charleston, S.C., … may be more...
French Connection 17: The clothing company with the edgy "FCUK" ads closed all but six of its U.S. stores…
A&P 25: The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. (GAP)...will close 25 grocery stores across five states…
American Eagle Outfitters 28: … followed Abercrombie & Fitch into the adult market with its Martin + Osa chain, but just like Abercrombie's Ruehl, it didn't work out. … announced in the spring that the 28 M+O stores and the online business would shut down.
Winn-Dixie Stores 30: … will close 30 older and under-performing stores by Sept. 22.
Bebe Stores 48: The women's apparel chain announced ...would shutter all 48 PH8 stores…
Men's Wearhouse 50-60: …plans to close 50 to 60 Tux stores this year.
Abercrombie & Fitch 110:… will close nearly 60 under-performing stores in 2010. … another 50 stores could close in 2011. … already closed 11 stores during the first half of the year…
Charming Shoppes 100-120: … parent of apparel stores Lane Bryant and Fashion Bug, plans to close 100 to 120 stores this fiscal year.
Blockbuster 500-545: …to close 500 to 545 stores. … in addition to the 374 it closed last year.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
I don't like the winn dixie news but the rest can go away.
Article is very interesting,thanks for your sharing.I will visit this site.welcome to my site!... cheap site hosting
windows web hosting
windows vps hosting
cheap hosting